Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[DrakeMarshall]

31 minutes ago, manukos said:

naturaly . i see you are a man of taste .
a worm signature is the only good signature 

Worm is excellent. Exceptional. Exemplary.

[manukos]

2 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Worm is excellent. Exceptional. Exemplary.

ummm .....coooooool.....
*note: drake is a nazi make sure to remember*

 

Edited June 18, 2018 by manukos

[DrakeMarshall]

2 minutes ago, manukos said:

*note: drake is a nazi make sure to remember*

What is this insolence! Impertinence! Incivility! 

I demand you refer to Cauldron by it's proper title! Tag! Terminology! 

[Steeldancer]

Rollover will be longer today. I'll get the new day up as soon as I can. 

[Steeldancer]

The night is over! I’ll get the day up as soon as I can. 

[Steeldancer]

Day Six: Dramatic Interpretation

"'Death comes to all. Death is the end of all men. No matter how drunk they may have been at the time of death.' The remnants of the Prince's men looked at the dead body of Captain Grumbleton. He had been a fool to reveal the royal stores of beer. Not only was that only something guards knew, it was just asking for pirates to bash you over the head, with the gleaming of murder in their eyes. As they drank upon the drink that they had killed Grumbleton to feast upon, the guards became enraged. They seized upon one of the pepetrators- Drake, one of those who had come back from the fire swamp with a little more purpose- and took him away from the reveling of the pirates. They were so drunk on the liquor that they didn't notice him being dragged away. Drake, however, wasn't exactly screaming his way out. He was giggling to himself. 'As you wish', he said drunkenly to the guards who dragged him away. 'As you wish.' 
The Count stared with hard eyes. 'Why don't we just kill them all right here. We could run in with our gleaming steel, thrust our blades into their cowardly drunken hearts before they even had time to lift another cup to their lips. We could even just poison the entire barrel, and let them kill themselves.'
The Prince shook his head. 'If we did that, it would be a lot harder to contain the rumors of us trying to hide what has happened here. Our best bet is to let them consume themselves, while we slowly dispose of members who inconvenience us. Like this Drake man here.'"
Grandpa Steel stopped reading, looking up at Alvron, who was busy making his stuffed snake bite his arm, while making hissing noises. Alvron looked up, somewhat embarrassed. "Look, I know more stuff has been happening, but I'm getting bored. What if the entire castle burns down? I bet Burnt would like that! It would be exciting!"
Steel gave Alvron a look of concern. "Have you seen a psychiatrist? Your instincts of death and destruction are... a little extreme."
Alvron gave Steel a somewhat disturbing grin. "You could make it so the gas activity that allows the fire swamp to be so firey to come and ignite the alcohol, setting the entire thing on fire!"
His grandfather sighed, and then decided that perhaps Alvron was just messing around. He would ask his mother whether he had had a penchant for burning things. Perhaps encouraging him wasn't the best idea. But first, to finish the story. 
"So, Drake was dragged away to the pit of despair. This time, the Count wanted to try an alternate way of using the machine- using it while the subject was asleep. How long would they be able to sleep while being tortured? Who knew? But the Count intended to find out."
Randuir is totally dead! He was a Prince's Guard. 
Drake Marshall has been attacked! He is Mostly Dead.

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)  Prince's Guard

3. Manukos

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Pirate with a Parrot

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Drake Marshall Mostly Dead

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo)

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) Pirate with a Dagger

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)  Prince's Guard

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Elandera

24. Burnt Spaghetti

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)  Pirate

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)

Today's fashion is dramatic detail! The Princess Bride finds much of it's humor in over-the-top names and descriptions! The Pit of Despair! The Cliffs of Insanity! The most passionate kiss in the history of the world! BE DRAMATIC! I look forward to your inventions and humor. 

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

AND SO!

The truth has come forth. Randuir had been deceiving us! Such treachery! Such woe for our ignorance! But fear not, my companions, for we shall sift out his conspirators from among us!

(Is that dramatic enough?)

[Fifth Scholar]

I am feeling in the mood for some vindication, after leading a lynch on a vocal Eliminator who probably would have let us mislynch our way through his choice of semiactives. I think Straw is also vindicated by the way Rand attempted to push a mislynch on him. 

I’ve been much harder to pocket this game, having rebuffed two Elims who were trying to get me on their good side, which makes me paranoid that there is an Elim who’s pocketing me so well I don’t know who they are >>. That said, unfounded paranoia isn’t the best way to play SE, so moving on. 

Something else to draw from this: tone, apparent effort, and seeming lack of concern about a lynch are not inherently village. Those three things made me nearly retract from Rand towards the end of last round, and I’m glad I didn’t. 

Now if you’ll excuse me, I just got a huge pile of information to sift through with that flip, so I’ll just be vanishing into the main thread for the next three hours. 

@Hemalurgic Headshot You’re technically in drama. You should know how to be dramatic.  

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

8 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@Hemalurgic Headshot You’re technically in drama. You should know how to be dramatic.  

"In drama" is a stretch. Yes, I participated in a few plays. But this is the cycle fashion! It's somewhat different, right?

Yes, I know how to be dramatic. I felt awkward about being the first post, that's all.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Woah! Such an amazing outcome leaves me flabergasted! Sure, I had hoped and dreamed that such a simple connection could have led us to our enemy, but my expectations have been surpassed!

Sorry, I am tired beyond belief, my exhaustion only compounded by the sadness at (mostly) losing our dear pirate companion Drake. His (soon to be) loss (provided that Miracle Max doesn't save the day) loses us an essentially confirmed good comrade.

Let us recap:

Essentially confirmed good: (maybe 90%)

Sart: Twice contributed to killing elims

Dalinar Kholin: worked to get Rand lynched once, and started the lynch on Bort

Fifth: Pushed hard for the lynch on Rand.

Last voting cycle:

Rand (7) Fifth, Headshot, Mr. Doc, Rath, Straw, Drake, Sart

Straw (2): Rand, Jon

Walin (1): Elandera

It's worth reviewing how Jondesu put his vote on Straw when the vote count was tied 2-2 between Rand and Straw. Such an action could have saved Rand. Of course, it could be an accident, but it strikes me as highly suspicious.Mr. Doctor put the vote on Randuir changing it to 3-3. This makes me suspect Mr Doctor far less, leaving me 70% village read on him (the 30% elim comes from his defense of Randuir the previous day cycle).

Rath's vote brings it to 4-3 and Straw's brings it to 5-3. Because there's a possibility that both Straw and Rand were evil I won't comment on how this affects my view of straw. Rath I would say 75% village read from that vote. It'd be a bold move to make as an elim.

Elim Reads:

Jondesu: Stayed on the counterlynch target and voted at a crucial time.

Snipexe: Tunnelling on Sart for no particular reason (has he voted anywhere else?)

This is my thoughts on the latest voting cycle given that Rand has flipped elim. 

Let's get good analysis out there! We have three elims flipped, we know have a minimum of two (probably a maximum of 3?) remaining.

Edit 1: 

Also, sorry for the double post, but just realized something.

HH is also probably good because of the early vote on Rand.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Dalinar Kholin

[Rathmaskal]

Whew, I was worried for a bit that I might just have had a bad read on randuir.  Good job folks.  At this point we can assume there are likely 2 elims remaining...  (If so, it's just Humperdinck and the 6-fingered man remaining...interesting)

I'm still curious if the elims have had some kind of plan with their night kills since they stopped killing miracle max claimants...  Oh Drake.  SO YOUNG!!!  So much to live for!  So many more lynches to vote on!  Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?  Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?!  WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!?!?!??!!?

Anyway, assuming it's not random...  There are two things that kind of stand  out with Drake's recent activity:

• Made an attempt at lynching Walin yesterday
• Mentioned a method to determine distancing between players based on the number of mentions.

Either of these two could have triggered something amongst the elims...  Since I don't have anything to efficiently perform the distancing algorithm Drake referred to, I'm going to test out the Walin theory.

I'll check out the thread in ~10 hours, but won't be able to be active on the thread at all after that...going to be the same all week.

[Dalinar Kholin]

 

2 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Whew, I was worried for a bit that I might just have had a bad read on randuir.  Good job folks.  At this point we can assume there are likely 2 elims remaining...  (If so, it's just Humperdinck and the 6-fingered man remaining...interesting)

I'm still curious if the elims have had some kind of plan with their night kills since they stopped killing miracle max claimants...  Oh Drake.  SO YOUNG!!!  So much to live for!  So many more lynches to vote on!  Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?  Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?!  WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!?!?!??!!?

Anyway, assuming it's not random...  There are two things that kind of stand  out with Drake's recent activity:

• Made an attempt at lynching Walin yesterday
• Mentioned a method to determine distancing between players based on the number of mentions.

Either of these two could have triggered something amongst the elims...  Since I don't have anything to efficiently perform the distancing algorithm Drake referred to, I'm going to test out the Walin theory.

I'll check out the thread in ~10 hours, but won't be able to be active on the thread at all after that...going to be the same all week.

I think you're overthinking it a little bit. Drake was a confirmed good active village, what more could you ask for from a lynch target? As much as Walin couuuuld be an elim, I'm sceptical because of Bort's vote on Walin.

[Snipexe]

2 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Snipexe: Tunnelling on Sart for no particular reason (has he voted anywhere else?)

Lol, yeah I just realized that, and with sart pretty much 100% cleared, don’t worry I’m going to stop. Now time to look at Rand’s interactions!

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I think you're overthinking it a little bit. Drake was a confirmed good active village, what more could you ask for from a lynch target?

Why do you say Drake was confirmed village? It may have been something I missed, but I had a fairly neutral-to-slight village read on him thus far. I'd now venture to say he's pretty solidly village, but only after he was attacked.

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

Anyway, assuming it's not random...  There are two things that kind of stand  out with Drake's recent activity:

• Made an attempt at lynching Walin yesterday
• Mentioned a method to determine distancing between players based on the number of mentions.

Either of these two could have triggered something amongst the elims...  Since I don't have anything to efficiently perform the distancing algorithm Drake referred to, I'm going to test out the Walin theory.

Regarding Walin, I'd have to agree with Dalinar on this. Bort's vote D1 was placed on Walin when he could have still been a viable lynch target. It wasn't something I noticed when I voted on him during the last day cycle (I was on mobile and still driving home from camping for a few days. I had a lot to catch up on and not a lot of ability to read through all of the previous cycles). It's possible Drake was chosen as a lynch target because he said something that hit a little too close to home for the elim team, or to cast suspicion on Walin because Drake had targeted him. The latter, however, is getting me stuck into an WIFOM loop.

I still need to go through all of the cycles I missed, so I'll abstain from voting for now. Instead, enjoy some RP! It's actually fairly easy to pick up after someone who had multiple personalities.

------------

Kay Oss, Amy Skate... those were names of ancient history. She was Lily now. Kay Oss, the reformed pyromaniac, had led her into the Fire Swamp seeking the legendary flame spurt. Instead she had come face to face with death, rearing its mighty head in the form of ROUSs.

Rodents. They're awful they are in their normal size, let alone an unusual size. If nothing else had come out of her near-death experience, at least it had chased away the other personalities. For now.

But she left death's doorstep just to arrive at a death-themed party. She had returned to the castle knowing she had a job to do, and found her companions dying around her-- some even at the hands of their allies.

Even more appalling was the thought that some among them were not allies at all, but treacherous thieves and murderers: a "Prince" whose crown might be more fitting if made out of the matter extruded from the wrong end of a cow, and a six-fingered Count who Lily guessed couldn't count to ten even with the extra help.

It was time for a mighty return for Lily, formerly known as Kay Oss and Amy Skate. It was time to ignite a revolution, overthrow a corrupt government ruled by fools. It was time for... a nap.

[Mr Doctor]

A traitor in the ranks! A foul abomination, an insulting excuse of a human being, was infiltrated the entire time! I spit upon his—no, upon its corpse. I spit upon all of us, for allowing it to remain among us, poisoning our hearts, minds, and souls with its horrific and twisted ways! I spit upon myself, for once considering to call it an ally!

And yet, the infection is still among us, my companions. There remain some vestiges of the canker in our midst, and I call upon our combined wills to combat it! With honesty, justice, and cunning, we may yet cleanse this place of the foul Prince and his scum.

 

In all seriousness, nice! Pity about Drake, partially because he seemed entertaining, but also because he seemed pretty engaged in the game and had some rather useful analysis. Also, that vote counter would be a handy tool to have.

[manukos]

i am all cought up now 
so my guesses for village are 
Walin day one vote by  bort (tho that could be weird bushing , unlikely for a young player but /shrug)
mr doctor, dalinar, drake, sart and now fifth for their inital voting on varius elims throughout the game
for elims ithink i have to doublecheck some things but overall i dont have big suspicions on anyone , perhaps snipex but that could be a young player missing things, i did much whorst 
straw as well perhaps. tho that man always seems dubious to me so take my ssusspicions with a crystal of salt 

P.S. nooooo drake ,  you might have been an E88 but you were a worm fan , you will be missed , 
P.S.2 i still dont understand how the whole resurection with pills from being mostly dead works , i'd apreciate it if smn explained 

[Elandera]

Alright, I've spent several hours reading through all of the cycles so far (admittedly skimming through RP and some of the longer analysis posts that weren't from confirmed elim). I had a strong focus on Randuir's interactions, and here's what I came up with.

Randuir's reads (on still living players) summarized:

Spoiler

Walin

1. “Shrug” read D1

2. Neutral, “keeping an eye on him”

Drake/Eternum

1. Dislike of quick vote

2. Slight elim read

Elenion

1. Waffling between elim and village

2. Waffling but slight elim conclusion. Suggests elims seem fine with focus around Elenion/Araris/Bugsy

Doc12

1. NAI read

2. NAI, “keep a close eye”

Bort

1. No read, asks question about Araris lynch

Manukos/Elephant

1. Asked question only, pointed out low post count

HH

1. Neutral with village leanings

Snipexe

1. Neutral, comments if Sart is evil Snipe is likely good

Fifth Scholar

1. Neutral to slight village

Jondesu

1. NAI, asks question on D1 AI

Dalinar

1. No read, asked question

Straw

1. Neutral to slight elim, asks questions about current suspicions

Mr. Doctor

1. Neutral, watch list

Rath

1. Slight village, watch list

 

Dead village players he analysed: Araris, CadCom, Roadwalker, Bugsy, Devotary

 

Elenion's reads (on still living players) summarized:

Spoiler

Drake/Eternum

1. Neutral read

Mr. Doctor

1. Slight village, but suspicious of vote position on Araris

HH

1. Considered most suspicious

Doc

1. Most trusted, village vibe read

Fifth

1. Slight village

At the moment, I'm somewhat suspicious of Doc12. Both elims who offered analysis on him put him at neutral to village. I know that doesn't say much, considering lots of people fall into that category, but I also consider Doc's vote during the last cycle. Towards the end, he voted on Straw as Randuir was in a solid lynch lead and asked Drake and others to consider making the vote closer. This could have been an effort by an elim team member to help save Rand and create a mislynch on Straw. @Doc12, I'd like to hear your response, because despite my vote, I would still place you at neutral to only slight elim.

Here are my reads so far on everyone else still alive:

Most village:
Sart - His voting history suggests a strong likelihood he's village. I find it unlikely that an elim!Sart would have bussed every one of his teammates when there were other options at the time.
Mr. Doctor - He seems to be a genuine new village player who wants to offer help.
Fifth Scholar - He was one of the major players in pushing for a Randuir lynch the last few cycles. Unlikely elim behavior.

Probably village:
Hemalurgic - He's been probably village for a lot of people since knowing that Roadwalker falsely claimed Miracle Max. Since then, nothing has really stood out about his posts to change that view.
Straw - It is likely that he is village with Randuir flipping elim and having pushed for a Straw lynch. If Straw had been either the Prince or Count, I would assume Randuir would sacrifice himself (being a guard only) to save one of the more important roles.
Val - Placed here for the Man in Black claim that has yet to be refuted. However, they've contributed very little since then.

Slightly Village:
Dalinar Kholin - He also pushed for a Randuir lynch two cycles before it actually happened. This, however, could have been a distancing tactic. Some of the other interactions he had with confirmed elims seemed a bit odd. That's why it's only slightly village at this time.
Walin - See my night post for an explanation why I now put him at slight village.

Neutral:
Elbereth - Pretty obvious why I'd place them as Neutral, seeing as they claimed the neutral role.

Slight village:
Doc12 - See above explanation.
Rathmaskal - This was another one where I feel some of the interactions may have been a bit odd, combined with only voting on Randuir after several votes had already been placed. On the other hand, he was offered a chance to move it onto Straw as a possible last-minute swing, but he chose to keep it. Only a very slight elim read at this time.

No read:
Manukos (ElephantEarwax) - Too few posts from both.
Snipexe - Though there have been a decent number of posts from Snipexe, there have been few actual interactions that might give alignment indication.
Jondesu - Same as Snipexe
BurntSpaghetti (MarkIV) - Same as Manukos

@manukos, when someone is killed (lynched or elim-killed) they will only be mostly dead. Miracle Max (or someone to whom Max as given a pill) can use a miracle pill to revive the player within a turn, bringing them back to life. For example, if Mr. Doctor were to be lynched this day turn, Max or one of the pill-holders could use an action to give Mr. Doctor a pill during the night turn. Mr. Doctor would then return to activity the next day turn.

So far, this has only happened once - to revive Elbereth who has claimed Max.

[Fifth Scholar]

Random thought: I think the remaining Elims are Doc12 and Jondesu. I’m still trudging through Rand’s posts and I’m two cycles and 30 posts in. I will post a final “library” of his posts when I’m done, conveniently numbered for ease of browsing via “find in page” on Google Chrome. 

This will likely change later as I look at Rand’s posts more, but for many of the reasons Elandera said, Doc12. 

[Straw]

I’ll put a vote on Doc12, for the reasons stated by Elandera. Additionally, he hasn’t responded to a PM I sent him a while ago.

[Rathmaskal]

I should note that my vote is not solely fueled by the Drake logic...  A case against Walin has been made several times over the past few days.

doc12 is also fairly high on my list, (probably #2 or 1a) so I'll switch over there for now.

[Doc12]

...That's a pretty fast bandwagon. So far, the only real accusation against me is for trying to make the vote closer between Straw and Randuir - here was my reasoning. At that point, I was nursing some healthy suspicion on Randuir, as from my past games with him I knew that my read on him was never accurate. At that point where I voted, the vote was pretty close between Straw and Randuir, and as I stated, between a vocal player who was offering lots of thoughts on people and a lurker, I'd much rather lynch the lurker first. Not only does it keep an active player who encourages discussion in the game, I felt it would shed even more light on Rand's alignment, if Straw had flipped village, I would have been much more confident in lynching Rand. If Straw had flipped elim, it would have helped clear Rand more, as Straw had been largely forgotten at that point.  

Consider these scenarios. 

Elim!Straw lynched - Rand becomes more cleared (More information)

Village!Straw lynched - Rand looks a lot more guilty  (More information)

Elim!Rand lynched - We get to check his posts for defenses, distancing and more  (More information)

Village!Rand lynched - Lost a voice of discussion and have no real target for this cycle - he tried to lynch a lurker, so? (Less information)

Drake asked me why I thought lynching Straw was the lesser of two evils, and here is my argument. While I didn't really have much reads on Straw or Rand, and when they seemed equally likely to flip elim for me, I decided that lynching Straw would not only either help to clear or damnation Rand, it would keep an active player in the game. Could he have tried to mislead us? Sure! But I choose to believe that his continuing trail of hedging and misinformation would have eventually tipped us off - it did certainly ring a lot of alarm bells already so far. I just wanted to be sure. 

As it is, Rand is dead, and people are already able to comb through a wealth of information from his previous posts. That is an excellent thing, and something I have been trying to do myself. I suggest the rest of you who are hopping on the bandwagon do the same. 

[Walin]

Well well well, it appears I have yet to garner lots of votes. It appears I am sufficiently entertaining for my survival, or at least neutral enough to avoid actions.

I don’t have many suspicions right now, but I think I’m going to say that Doc12 may be the target of a coalition of people, or perhaps not.

In my experience, having private discussion is no more beneficial than public discussion, except when you’re the elims.

So scratch that; I’ve not nothing else to say lest I stop being a neutral player right now.

This is an excellent adventure, but first it must be careful.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Well, conversations sort of dead... Not that I necessarilly disagree with the bandwagon, but what do people think about Jondesu? @Val @Walin  @Rathmaskal @Fifth Scholar @Elandera

[Elandera]

3 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Well, conversations sort of dead... Not that I necessarilly disagree with the bandwagon, but what do people think about Jondesu? @Val @Walin  @Rathmaskal @Fifth Scholar @Elandera

I'd have to go back and review his posts specifically, but from what I remember in my review last night I didn't get much of a read at all. It's enough for me to be suspicious, especially at this point in the game. I'd probably put him third on my list of elim suspects, with Doc 12 and Rathmaskal in the lead.

[Fifth Scholar]

I am currently focused on Rand’s old posts but I do harbor vague suspicion of Jondesu, though I kinda forgot why.  Once I’m done with Rand I’ll look at him.