[OB] What is up with Mraize and Ialai?

[maxal]

19 minutes ago, Dahak said:

Adolin still has that pending duel with Sadeas after the duel He, Renarin and Kaladin took on four shardbearers.

All Adolin, probably the greatest duelist alive, needs to do to get Sadeas in range of his shardblade is wait. People do sometimes die in duels.

I had wondered what would happen with the pending duel... Sadeas is dead. Does his heir inherit Sadeas's obligation to duel Adolin? Or can he enforce it? Can they use the pending duel to force Adolin onto the dueling ground and then put him up against someone he cannot beat?

[Dahak]

Just now, maxal said:

I had wondered what would happen with the pending duel... Sadeas is dead. Does his heir inherit Sadeas's obligation to duel Adolin? Or can he enforce it? Can they use the pending duel to force Adolin onto the dueling ground and then put him up against someone he cannot beat?

The duel was a boon from Elohkar to fight Sadeas in preson so it probably lapsed with Sadeas's death.

And there aren't many individuals who are both better in a duel than Adolin and dislike him enough to risk killing him.

[maxal]

2 minutes ago, Dahak said:

The duel was a boon from Elohkar to fight Sadeas in preson so it probably lapsed with Sadeas's death.

And there aren't many individuals who are both better in a duel than Adolin and dislike him enough to risk killing him.

Actually, I think there are hordes of people disliking Adolin enough to want to kill him, but him winning the 4 on 1 duel is going to make most of them wary to even attempt it. This being said, there is no telling if the boon is now void or not: Sadeas agreed to the duel, so while a potential heir may not be obliged to carry it, one could see fit to enforce it. Say, if they think they can beat Adolin...

Everyone has an off day and Adolin is a mere mortal. I do think him losing a fight has been foreshadowed. I do expect it to happen though I am unsure about the specifics.

[kari-no-sugata]

@maxal Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Good points. But I don't think you're considering Amaram's position enough. This is not purely political for Amaram - it's religious as well. Amaram's cause would be advanced significantly if many people believe or suspect that Kaladin was the killer. Kaladin and Dalinar are both Radiants while Adolin isn't. In this brave new world with the Radiants returning even Adolin wonders about his real position relative to Shallan and the other Radiants. Also, there are many people who consider Radiants to be bad news and are pre-disposed to distrust them. We've seen this several times already and something significant is certainly on the cards. Dalinar also directly appointed Kaladin. Discrediting Kaladin would discredit the Radiants in general (including Dalinar) and Dalinar who appointed him. For Amaram, this would not be a minor achievement.

Accusing Adolin would only be meaningful if it could be believed. I agree that if Adolin could be realistically accused then it would probably be more significant for Dalinar. But if Amaram doesn't have a good case against Adolin then that doesn't matter. A bad case that nobody would believe serves no purpose. I'm not sure why you think that the evidence is easy to get as it hasn't come up at all yet - even when Shallan reviewed the state of the investigation this didn't come up. And don't forget that Kaladin also has a Shardblade and is known to have one. So far, there's nothing specifically pointing to Adolin in terms of what is known in-world.

[maxal]

9 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

@maxal Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Good points. But I don't think you're considering Amaram's position enough. This is not purely political for Amaram - it's religious as well. Amaram's cause would be advanced significantly if many people believe or suspect that Kaladin was the killer. Kaladin and Dalinar are both Radiants while Adolin isn't. In this brave new world with the Radiants returning even Adolin wonders about his real position relative to Shallan and the other Radiants. Also, there are many people who consider Radiants to be bad news and are pre-disposed to distrust them. We've seen this several times already and something significant is certainly on the cards. Dalinar also directly appointed Kaladin. Discrediting Kaladin would discredit the Radiants in general (including Dalinar) and Dalinar who appointed him. For Amaram, this would not be a minor achievement.

Accusing Adolin would only be meaningful if it could be believed. I agree that if Adolin could be realistically accused then it would probably be more significant for Dalinar. But if Amaram doesn't have a good case against Adolin then that doesn't matter. A bad case that nobody would believe serves no purpose. I'm not sure why you think that the evidence is easy to get as it hasn't come up at all yet - even when Shallan reviewed the state of the investigation this didn't come up. And don't forget that Kaladin also has a Shardblade and is known to have one. So far, there's nothing specifically pointing to Adolin in terms of what is known in-world.

I am unsure how the religious factor will play in for Amaram. So while it is true he is a zealot willing to sacrifice an entire generation just to get the chance to witness the Heralds returning to Roshar, I am still debating with myself as to how he may view the Radiants now. His dreams come true? His nightmares come true? What will he think of Dalinar becoming a heretic? Dalinar did not stop believing into the Heralds, but he did call the Almighty a fraud. Thus can we really say one of Amaram's goals would be to undermine the Radiants? Save his reputation and remove the accusation laying above his head, quite certainly, but now the Desolation is happening what else can he want?

Thus while it is true Amaram could capitalize on people fearing the Radiants by accusing one of them of murder, he'd still be doing it with literally doing it with no proof. Kaladin did not kill Sadeas, so any proof Amaram could come up with will either be fabricated or circumstantial (Kaladin is away). I am afraid it wouldn't go a long way in terms of accusation. It may be the wrong way to accuse the Radiants: if he is found to unjustly accuse one of their members, then it may have the opposite effect. So how is he going to discredit Kaladin? He didn't do it. He likely has a alibi. He wasn't around for the copycat murders. It doesn't seem like the smart path to go for someone perhaps thinking to undermine Dalinar.

I do think a good investigator could build a decent case against Adolin. The Shardblade mark onto the wall indicated the murderer was a member of the scouting parties (which Kaladin wasn't, so he wouldn't have needed to erase any mark on the wall had he kill Sadeas). Bridge 4 and Adolin were known to scout within those areas at the time of the murder. Adolin is known to wander alone quite often, any interrogation could have someone testify the prince was often off by himself. He definitely was missing for a long period of time around the last time Sadeas was seen. He then proceeded to make new marks into another area to pretend he was there the whole time, but any clever investigator could trace back those marks and find them incoherent. Then there is the matter of his ruined uniform, what did he do with it? Unless he burned it himself, someone must have seen it. I say, there are ample proof left behind, but the current investigators aren't looking for it. Dalinar is adamant his men did not do it: nobody is following a trail which would lead to Dalinar's men, nobody is having those suspicions. Hence it is entirely possible May Aladar isn't looking at the right place to find the clues. Shallan hasn't been doing the investigation, she just read the report written by someone else. They missed it, but Amaram may see it.

So while there is nothing pointing to Adolin specifically, unless they can produce the ruined uniform, the clues do lead towards his direction.

My guess is they will find the uniform and the Blade mark.

[kari-no-sugata]

10 hours ago, maxal said:

I am unsure how the religious factor will play in for Amaram. So while it is true he is a zealot willing to sacrifice an entire generation just to get the chance to witness the Heralds returning to Roshar, I am still debating with myself as to how he may view the Radiants now. His dreams come true? His nightmares come true? What will he think of Dalinar becoming a heretic? Dalinar did not stop believing into the Heralds, but he did call the Almighty a fraud. Thus can we really say one of Amaram's goals would be to undermine the Radiants? Save his reputation and remove the accusation laying above his head, quite certainly, but now the Desolation is happening what else can he want?

While I don't know what Amaram's exact views are on Radiants I think it's highly likely that he will find Dalinar's views to be incompatible with his own. Amaram's main priority is the return of the Heralds, it seems, which would be compatible with a "traditional" Vorin belief. However, he did let Dalinar drape a Radiant cloak around him. Was that through gritted teeth in pursuit of his goal or was he okay with it?

 

10 hours ago, maxal said:

Thus while it is true Amaram could capitalize on people fearing the Radiants by accusing one of them of murder, he'd still be doing it with literally doing it with no proof. Kaladin did not kill Sadeas, so any proof Amaram could come up with will either be fabricated or circumstantial (Kaladin is away). I am afraid it wouldn't go a long way in terms of accusation. It may be the wrong way to accuse the Radiants: if he is found to unjustly accuse one of their members, then it may have the opposite effect. So how is he going to discredit Kaladin? He didn't do it. He likely has a alibi. He wasn't around for the copycat murders. It doesn't seem like the smart path to go for someone perhaps thinking to undermine Dalinar.

With Sadeas's time of death being uncertain, I think it would be hard for Kaladin to have a good alibi. Though the same could be said for a lot of people.

If this was a proper trial or something official/legal then the burden of proof would be on Amaram. However, for the "court of public opinion" then he simply has to make a better argument than Dalinar. So if Dalinar struggles to refute Amaram's arguments then he'll struggle politically. The copycat aspect of the murders won't matter if Shallan's evidence comes out. If Kaladin's act of hiding the parshmen in the shelter comes out then his reputation will drop so hard that even Dalinar's allies would be questioning Dalinar's judgement, though of course this could easily come up entirely separately.

We know that there's no proof that Kaladin killed Sadeas but the in-world people don't know this (except Adolin). Even with modern techniques etc sometimes the wrong people are accused so in the setting of the story, such things would be much more common. Ialai flat out said that someone under Dalinar did it and I doubt Amaram would go against that. So if he's going to accuse anyone it'll be someone under Dalinar and it's easy enough to imagine him irrationally zeroing in on Kaladin. I wouldn't be surprised if Amaram convinces himself that Kaladin did it, despite the lack of evidence (this is the same guy who thought that his actions caused the Heralds to return after all). I would also suggest that Amaram has little to lose by being wrong - he reputation is already terrible in general though clearly Ialai is sticking by him for now.

 

10 hours ago, maxal said:

I do think a good investigator could build a decent case against Adolin. The Shardblade mark onto the wall indicated the murderer was a member of the scouting parties (which Kaladin wasn't, so he wouldn't have needed to erase any mark on the wall had he kill Sadeas). Bridge 4 and Adolin were known to scout within those areas at the time of the murder. Adolin is known to wander alone quite often, any interrogation could have someone testify the prince was often off by himself. He definitely was missing for a long period of time around the last time Sadeas was seen. He then proceeded to make new marks into another area to pretend he was there the whole time, but any clever investigator could trace back those marks and find them incoherent. Then there is the matter of his ruined uniform, what did he do with it? Unless he burned it himself, someone must have seen it. I say, there are ample proof left behind, but the current investigators aren't looking for it. Dalinar is adamant his men did not do it: nobody is following a trail which would lead to Dalinar's men, nobody is having those suspicions. Hence it is entirely possible May Aladar isn't looking at the right place to find the clues. Shallan hasn't been doing the investigation, she just read the report written by someone else. They missed it, but Amaram may see it.

So while there is nothing pointing to Adolin specifically, unless they can produce the ruined uniform, the clues do lead towards his direction.

My guess is they will find the uniform and the Blade mark.

Regarding the possible evidence above, I would hope that if it was just about to be used then it would be foreshadowed already... though we still have 3 sets of releases to go. So far, there's not really a sense of the investigation closing in on Adolin, though Shallan has picked up a number of vague clues.

The Shardblade mark might not have even be found yet. I'm not sure how well it would stand out, so it might not be noticed unless the investigators forensically inspect the entire area. If they do find it then they would have to find the other marks as well to have any chance of guessing what it might mean - by itself, the Shardblade mark doesn't mean much.

I'm not sure how easy it would be to show that Adolin was in the right area at the right time. Since he went some distance from his scouting party, it might be quite hard to make a strong case for it. It doesn't feel like they were mapping the place, so it's possible that all that could be proved is that they were on the same floor at the same time. We've also seen in tWoK that people are often more loyal to their princedom than the law, so the people on his side would probably try to avoid saying anything incriminating. Ditto the people who work with Adolin's clothes. Of course, it's possible that Ialai managed to sneak one of her spies into either group and could have reported certain suspicions privately.

Curiously there's been nothing said about Oathbringer itself. Did someone find it and keep it? Has it in fact not even been found? Sadeas was found on the first floor so Oathbringer should have been tossed onto floor 1 or 2, so it should be easy enough to find.

While I agree a sufficiently good investigator could identify Adolin as a suspect, unless they find something specifically incriminating such as his clothes then I doubt they'd be able to make a good enough case to formally accuse Adolin.

At the moment, it doesn't look like Adolin is likely to collapse under the pressure. He might be able to handle someone specifically accusing him. However, someone else getting the blame for the murder, particularly someone that Adolin respects, would be very different I'm sure. So far, the development of the "Sadeas's murder" aspect of OB hasn't gone as expected so the wrong person being accused would somehow be fitting.

[maxal]

23 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

While I don't know what Amaram's exact views are on Radiants I think it's highly likely that he will find Dalinar's views to be incompatible with his own. Amaram's main priority is the return of the Heralds, it seems, which would be compatible with a "traditional" Vorin belief. However, he did let Dalinar drape a Radiant cloak around him. Was that through gritted teeth in pursuit of his goal or was he okay with it?

I agree with you here. While it is true Amaram is a fervent believer the Heralds need to walk on Roshar again and was willing to launch a Desolation to see it happening, I somehow do not think he will take the real return of the Radiants kindly. Vorinism within its purest form despises the Radiants, but glorifies the Heralds and as such, I can definitely see Amaram thinking Dalinar is speaking heresy.

There is also the tiny fact wanting Ialai to strongly suspect someone out of Dalinar's camp as the murderer. It thus wouldn't work out for her to appoint someone being set to turn into a Dalinar worshiper. As such, I would argue it is entirely possible and plausible Amaram is not pleased by Dalinar changing things the way he is changing them. I definitely see him opposing Dalinar more so to the fact Dalinar actually accused him of stealing and murder.

23 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

With Sadeas's time of death being uncertain, I think it would be hard for Kaladin to have a good alibi. Though the same could be said for a lot of people.

If this was a proper trial or something official/legal then the burden of proof would be on Amaram. However, for the "court of public opinion" then he simply has to make a better argument than Dalinar. So if Dalinar struggles to refute Amaram's arguments then he'll struggle politically. The copycat aspect of the murders won't matter if Shallan's evidence comes out. If Kaladin's act of hiding the parshmen in the shelter comes out then his reputation will drop so hard that even Dalinar's allies would be questioning Dalinar's judgement, though of course this could easily come up entirely separately.

We know that there's no proof that Kaladin killed Sadeas but the in-world people don't know this (except Adolin). Even with modern techniques etc sometimes the wrong people are accused so in the setting of the story, such things would be much more common. Ialai flat out said that someone under Dalinar did it and I doubt Amaram would go against that. So if he's going to accuse anyone it'll be someone under Dalinar and it's easy enough to imagine him irrationally zeroing in on Kaladin. I wouldn't be surprised if Amaram convinces himself that Kaladin did it, despite the lack of evidence (this is the same guy who thought that his actions caused the Heralds to return after all). I would also suggest that Amaram has little to lose by being wrong - he reputation is already terrible in general though clearly Ialai is sticking by him for now.

Sadeas's time of death is uncertain this is true, but one thing is certain is the last time he was seen alive. Dalinar observed he has been dead for a while, hence while they cannot be sure when exactly he was murdered, they can make the educated guess it happened not long after he was last seen. I mean, the idea Sadeas would have roamed, all alone, into the Tower for hours before meeting his finale demise doesn't seem all too probable. Thus, I would think Kaladin being at the top of the Tower with Dalinar, then being set to organized his travel which likely involved him being around with people should be enough of an alibi. All it needs is several people claiming that yes, Kaladin has been with them the all time up until he left.

I agree if it comes to a trial, it will end up being whom the court is more willing to believe. One thing which comes to mind is the fact Amaram already unjustly accused Kaladin of a crime before. Dalinar knows this. The people who witnessed Amaram admit to it himself also knows this. Therefore, shall Amaram accuse Kaladin, how do we honestly think it will go down? It is highly likely to go down with Dalinar claiming Amaram is using the murder to settle his score with Kaladin. Dalinar has proof Amaram has already accused the man of a crime he did not commit, he has the proof Kaladin was put into slavery on false accusations, he has witnesses to proof it too. Will the court honestly take Amaram's side knowing he has framed Kaladin in the past and is attempting to frame him once again?

I say, if Amaram is trying to clean up his name, to find a way out of Dalinar accusing him, accusing Kaladin seems about the worst idea. It will bring forth the accusations Dalinar has against him and will no doubt end into his own demise. He can't be foolish enough to risk it... but him accusing Adolin, him having enough proof to make it a case and he might get Dalinar to back down on his own accusations. This is one theory I had in the past: the Sadeas's princedom using Adolin's act as a means to exonerate Amaram.

Would all too honorable Dalinar strike a deal to protect his son or will his sense of honor forces him to sacrifice Adolin and the prosecute Amaram?

I also do not see Shallan's evidence coming up in a trial. She won't be able to bring it forward unless she is willing to expose herself as both a spy and a member of the Ghostblood. She used their sign to get the information, any investigator would eventually make the connection. I thus do not see Shallan going broad with this knowledge.

So while I do agree it seems probably to have Amaram zeroing onto Kaladin based on their past history, I also think it would downright idiotic for him to try the same trick twice. He can't want to bring the focus onto Kaladin for reasons which are personal to him. It is much easier to accuse Adolin whom has been around when Sadeas was killed, hasn't been accounted for, has the means and the capacity and could totally think he is doing Dalinar a favor. If it is a matter of public opinion, then accusing Adolin is a surer shot: we also have to take into consideration a lot of people probably saw Kaladin up and about on that faithful day whereas Adolin was all alone.

23 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

Regarding the possible evidence above, I would hope that if it was just about to be used then it would be foreshadowed already... though we still have 3 sets of releases to go. So far, there's not really a sense of the investigation closing in on Adolin, though Shallan has picked up a number of vague clues.

The Shardblade mark might not have even be found yet. I'm not sure how well it would stand out, so it might not be noticed unless the investigators forensically inspect the entire area. If they do find it then they would have to find the other marks as well to have any chance of guessing what it might mean - by itself, the Shardblade mark doesn't mean much.

I'm not sure how easy it would be to show that Adolin was in the right area at the right time. Since he went some distance from his scouting party, it might be quite hard to make a strong case for it. It doesn't feel like they were mapping the place, so it's possible that all that could be proved is that they were on the same floor at the same time. We've also seen in tWoK that people are often more loyal to their princedom than the law, so the people on his side would probably try to avoid saying anything incriminating. Ditto the people who work with Adolin's clothes. Of course, it's possible that Ialai managed to sneak one of her spies into either group and could have reported certain suspicions privately.

Curiously there's been nothing said about Oathbringer itself. Did someone find it and keep it? Has it in fact not even been found? Sadeas was found on the first floor so Oathbringer should have been tossed onto floor 1 or 2, so it should be easy enough to find.

While I agree a sufficiently good investigator could identify Adolin as a suspect, unless they find something specifically incriminating such as his clothes then I doubt they'd be able to make a good enough case to formally accuse Adolin.

At the moment, it doesn't look like Adolin is likely to collapse under the pressure. He might be able to handle someone specifically accusing him. However, someone else getting the blame for the murder, particularly someone that Adolin respects, would be very different I'm sure. So far, the development of the "Sadeas's murder" aspect of OB hasn't gone as expected so the wrong person being accused would somehow be fitting.

Shallan did not investigate the Sadeas's crime scene: she just read the report from May Aladar. They could have very easily missed the mark on the wall. By itself, it means nothing, but if they link it to the marks the explorers have made on the walls, if they backtrack a few steps and they find Adolin's previous mark... There is a pattern. Honestly, once someone latches on the mark, I think they can easily proof the culprit was one of the explorers, he was alone, he erased on mark and then started to make others elsewhere, but the trail... The entire trail must not be coherent: it starts, it stops, it picks up again, but there is an unexplained gap in between. This is exactly the sort of things Shallan would pick on, shall she investigate the scene, for real.

They cannot prove Adolin was precisely close to the murder scene, but they can prove one of the explorers was (the marks). Then, they can have the other explorers testify Adolin has been the one wandering alone, everyone else being grouped with other people. So while yes, it  maybe Bridge 4 will avoid saying anything incriminating, but this is if they are even aware of the plot to accuse Adolin. A good investigator will ask his questions without letting the other party know the end game such as to avoid them not being truthful. 

Once they narrowed it down to Adolin, asking question about his clothes could lead to the ripped and bloodied uniform. Adolin is always so neat, so careful, I would say his cleaning ladies must notice when one of this uniform comes back ruined or when one is missing. It is the sort of details someone like Adolin will not care nor think about because he probably never bothered to wonder what happens to his clothes after he wears them, but it is exactly the sort of details the low born people doing the work would talk about and notice.

We have no indication about Oathbringer's whereabouts. I am thinking it hasn't been found yet.

I don't think they need a fail-proof case to accuse Adolin: they just need enough supported to back them out and make a faction to oppose Dalinar. A lot of people want vengeance on Adolin, it will not be hard to convince many to support the accusations and if the proof is incriminating even if not complete, then it maybe enough. Enough at least for Dalinar to stare down into Adolin's eyes and asks him the truth: we all know Adolin is unlikely to lie if asked directly.

I agree he doesn't look like he is about to collapse from the pressure. I also agree accusing someone else might be enough or he might just find the counter-arguments on how it isn't him (honestly any case built against Kaladin will be paper thin) without speaking of his personal guilt. This being said, it is baffling Adolin seems so unaffected by the event: is it a narrative mistake or is Brandon keeping things in store for us?

[kari-no-sugata]

4 hours ago, maxal said:

Sadeas's time of death is uncertain this is true, but one thing is certain is the last time he was seen alive. Dalinar observed he has been dead for a while, hence while they cannot be sure when exactly he was murdered, they can make the educated guess it happened not long after he was last seen. I mean, the idea Sadeas would have roamed, all alone, into the Tower for hours before meeting his finale demise doesn't seem all too probable. Thus, I would think Kaladin being at the top of the Tower with Dalinar, then being set to organized his travel which likely involved him being around with people should be enough of an alibi. All it needs is several people claiming that yes, Kaladin has been with them the all time up until he left.

Given that Sadeas's team got lost I think it's credible that they can't discount Sadeas himself also getting lost. Or returning to where they separated some time later looking for the team. There's so little that's been confirmed - they haven't even confirmed that the room they found him in is the same one they last saw him in. They also don't have precise time-keeping at this point. I doubt they'd be able to narrow the time of death that much.

With regards to Kaladin, we simply don't know whether he has a credible alibi or not. Also, in practice Sadeas's death occurred before Kaladin decided to leave home - depending on what is found out, some might argue that Kaladin killed Sadeas and then wanted a plausible excuse to leave. It also might not help that Bridge 4 found the body.

 

4 hours ago, maxal said:

I agree if it comes to a trial, it will end up being whom the court is more willing to believe. One thing which comes to mind is the fact Amaram already unjustly accused Kaladin of a crime before. Dalinar knows this. The people who witnessed Amaram admit to it himself also knows this. Therefore, shall Amaram accuse Kaladin, how do we honestly think it will go down? It is highly likely to go down with Dalinar claiming Amaram is using the murder to settle his score with Kaladin. Dalinar has proof Amaram has already accused the man of a crime he did not commit, he has the proof Kaladin was put into slavery on false accusations, he has witnesses to proof it too. Will the court honestly take Amaram's side knowing he has framed Kaladin in the past and is attempting to frame him once again?

Not that I think we'll see a real trial but I think it's likely that Dalinar would use such an argument. But Dalinar would also have to refute the arguments that Amaram brings up as Amaram might be able to convince others.

 

4 hours ago, maxal said:

I say, if Amaram is trying to clean up his name, to find a way out of Dalinar accusing him, accusing Kaladin seems about the worst idea. It will bring forth the accusations Dalinar has against him and will no doubt end into his own demise. He can't be foolish enough to risk it... but him accusing Adolin, him having enough proof to make it a case and he might get Dalinar to back down on his own accusations. This is one theory I had in the past: the Sadeas's princedom using Adolin's act as a means to exonerate Amaram.

Would all too honorable Dalinar strike a deal to protect his son or will his sense of honor forces him to sacrifice Adolin and the prosecute Amaram?

I think such things could likely come either way.

 

4 hours ago, maxal said:

I also do not see Shallan's evidence coming up in a trial. She won't be able to bring it forward unless she is willing to expose herself as both a spy and a member of the Ghostblood. She used their sign to get the information, any investigator would eventually make the connection. I thus do not see Shallan going broad with this knowledge.

What Shallan and Adolin would likely do here (or have already done) is to suggest to the investigators that they heard rumours of another copy-cat and ask them to investigate. Shallan might even drop off a tip as Veil or something. That way, the info could come out into the open without Shallan's clandestine activities coming out.

 

4 hours ago, maxal said:

So while I do agree it seems probably to have Amaram zeroing onto Kaladin based on their past history, I also think it would downright idiotic for him to try the same trick twice. He can't want to bring the focus onto Kaladin for reasons which are personal to him. It is much easier to accuse Adolin whom has been around when Sadeas was killed, hasn't been accounted for, has the means and the capacity and could totally think he is doing Dalinar a favor. If it is a matter of public opinion, then accusing Adolin is a surer shot: we also have to take into consideration a lot of people probably saw Kaladin up and about on that faithful day whereas Adolin was all alone.

Shallan did not investigate the Sadeas's crime scene: she just read the report from May Aladar. They could have very easily missed the mark on the wall. By itself, it means nothing, but if they link it to the marks the explorers have made on the walls, if they backtrack a few steps and they find Adolin's previous mark... There is a pattern. Honestly, once someone latches on the mark, I think they can easily proof the culprit was one of the explorers, he was alone, he erased on mark and then started to make others elsewhere, but the trail... The entire trail must not be coherent: it starts, it stops, it picks up again, but there is an unexplained gap in between. This is exactly the sort of things Shallan would pick on, shall she investigate the scene, for real.

They cannot prove Adolin was precisely close to the murder scene, but they can prove one of the explorers was (the marks). Then, they can have the other explorers testify Adolin has been the one wandering alone, everyone else being grouped with other people. So while yes, it  maybe Bridge 4 will avoid saying anything incriminating, but this is if they are even aware of the plot to accuse Adolin. A good investigator will ask his questions without letting the other party know the end game such as to avoid them not being truthful. 

Once they narrowed it down to Adolin, asking question about his clothes could lead to the ripped and bloodied uniform. Adolin is always so neat, so careful, I would say his cleaning ladies must notice when one of this uniform comes back ruined or when one is missing. It is the sort of details someone like Adolin will not care nor think about because he probably never bothered to wonder what happens to his clothes after he wears them, but it is exactly the sort of details the low born people doing the work would talk about and notice.

We have no indication about Oathbringer's whereabouts. I am thinking it hasn't been found yet.

I don't think they need a fail-proof case to accuse Adolin: they just need enough supported to back them out and make a faction to oppose Dalinar. A lot of people want vengeance on Adolin, it will not be hard to convince many to support the accusations and if the proof is incriminating even if not complete, then it maybe enough. Enough at least for Dalinar to stare down into Adolin's eyes and asks him the truth: we all know Adolin is unlikely to lie if asked directly.

I agree he doesn't look like he is about to collapse from the pressure. I also agree accusing someone else might be enough or he might just find the counter-arguments on how it isn't him (honestly any case built against Kaladin will be paper thin) without speaking of his personal guilt. This being said, it is baffling Adolin seems so unaffected by the event: is it a narrative mistake or is Brandon keeping things in store for us?

I think I need to take a step back and re-iterate what I think could happen... with a few extra ideas.

The scenario would be for something at the end of Part 1 - maybe about 5 days away in-world. So any evidence presented would be what is known at that point rather than what could be found out at a later point. Long term, a properly done investigation by highly capable people might well be able to find the evidence that Adolin is the prime suspect. Instead, it feels like what could happen is that there's very few useful leads and based on the lack of evidence for any particular suspect Amaram will make an accusation of there being a cover-up. He'll then present his alternative scenario where he believes Kaladin did it based on all sorts of circumstantial evidence. Like I said before, this would be much more of a political attack.

In the worst case where Amaram has been able to collect a lot of dirt on Kaladin then it would put real pressure on Dalinar, despite Amaram's reputation and so on. If the official investigation has gotten nowhere then a charge of there being a cover-up becomes more believable. What would Dalinar likely do in such a scenario is to increase the resources for the investigation, to try to find the true murderer. Since Shallan has already gotten involved (eg with the copy-cat side) and had demonstrated her problem solving skills with the Shattered Plains, it's likely that Dalinar would ask her. Maybe Renarin too. If Shallan becomes officially part of the investigation that might make it easier for her to publicly investigate the copy-cat murders as well, so I can see her agreeing to this.

Shallan getting involved would surely increase the pressure on Adolin another step. btw, with regards of the amount of pressure going through Adolin, consider this - nobody has really spotted the stress Shallan is going through, yet it's very definitely there. While Shallan is perhaps much more used to such things the level of pain she is dealing with is also much higher. We've also seen that Shallan is slowly recovering so it's possibly reasonable to assume that Adolin is getting used to it (for now).

Jasnah praised Shallan's ability to see subtle details back in tWoK (investigating Galivar's murder and events leading up to it, ironically enough) and has demonstrated good problem-solving skills many times, so I'm sure she'd be able to contribute to the investigation. Her ability to reason out Urithiru's interior may well come in handy as well. In which case we might get a scenario where Shallan guesses Adolin might be the killer before anyone else and then confronts him about it. I think Adolin would likely admit it. What would they then decide to do...?

[maxal]

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

Given that Sadeas's team got lost I think it's credible that they can't discount Sadeas himself also getting lost. Or returning to where they separated some time later looking for the team. There's so little that's been confirmed - they haven't even confirmed that the room they found him in is the same one they last saw him in. They also don't have precise time-keeping at this point. I doubt they'd be able to narrow the time of death that much.

With regards to Kaladin, we simply don't know whether he has a credible alibi or not. Also, in practice Sadeas's death occurred before Kaladin decided to leave home - depending on what is found out, some might argue that Kaladin killed Sadeas and then wanted a plausible excuse to leave. It also might not help that Bridge 4 found the body.

They did lose Sadeas for over a day, this is true, but the reason for it isn't just the maze which are the Tower's corridors. They were told he had been seen into another area and thus wasted a lot of time looking for him... at the wrong place. Had Sadeas been alive, he would have presumably made his way down the corridor and, sooner or later, found his soldiers. The fact he didn't implies he had to be kill not long after he was last seen or else surely he would have met up with other people. This being said, it isn't completely impossible for him to have wandered, lost, for several hours before meeting his demise, but it seems less probable. Also, the room he died into had a tapestry with mint-like creatures Adolin remembers being read about, but forgot the name. Surely the last soldiers having seen Sadeas alive could testify this was the very same room: the tapestry ought to make it stand out. It would look like any other room.

At the time of Sadeas's death, Kaladin was at the top of the Tower, meeting with Dalinar and company. Afterwards, he went to prepare himself to leave, likely he was with other people, getting all his gems, giving out orders to Teft, etc. The only window someone like Amaram could use to blame Kaladin is before the went to the Tower, assuming he was alone. The thing is, the second it is stated Kaladin hasn't been alone at any time during the hours Sadeas was last scene or, if he was seen, he definitely wasn't within the right area (top of the Tower) and thus would have never been able to make from the murder scene to the top of the Tower or from the top of the Tower to the murder scene plausibly and realistically. 

Also, nobody knew Sadeas had arrived nor even planned to come. This includes Kaladin. For him to be incriminated would imply a planned assassination, not a change encounter as Kaladin wasn't anywhere near where the murder happened. He couldn't have been able to order Bridge 4 to kill Sadeas at the first chance since he wouldn't have known Sadeas was even there. 

I thus do not see how Amaram can even use the "circumstantial" argument to accuse Kaladin: any line of thought he can come up with is easily disbanded. Kaladin did not know Sadeas was in Urithiru, Kaladin wasn't in the vicinity of where Sadeas was dead, Kaladin was seen by other people around the time of death and he wasn't anywhere near the right scene. Yes, he left right after, but he left for a reason, not on a whim. I say Kaladin's alibi is entirely credible: three people were with him, likely other people were with him afterwards and his departure wasn't him running away, but him seeking is family, a leave he was granted by Dalinar whom everyone has already established is not responsible.

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

Not that I think we'll see a real trial but I think it's likely that Dalinar would use such an argument. But Dalinar would also have to refute the arguments that Amaram brings up as Amaram might be able to convince others.

Considering Amaram wouldn't be able to bring forth valid arguments, I see him losing his case quite rapidly. The only argument he could pull out is stating how Kaladin once murdered a Shardbearer by throwing a knife into his eyes, but this would imply him publicly admitting his guilt. Then again, he could try to play this card with Dalinar, but it would not go very far in terms of argumentation: it has already been established sticking a knife into the skull is a frequent manner of killing onto the battlefield. It doesn't link the murder to Kaladin anymore than it links it to any random soldier.

In shorts, Amaram has zero argument on Kaladin being the murdered. He cannot prove he was in the right place, he cannot prove he knew of Sadeas's arrival, he cannot prove he would even disobey orders from his Highprince. He can't prove nothing. He'd just be using a man he has a personal grudge against and no matter how he is going to turn it, it will look exactly like it.

Now, Amaram is way too smart to attempt this.

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

I think such things could likely come either way.

It is very hard to determine when Dalinar will act as the Blackthorn (and protecting Adolin) or like the honorable Bondsmith (condemning him). If he remains honorable, then he has to condemn both Amaram and Adolin.

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

What Shallan and Adolin would likely do here (or have already done) is to suggest to the investigators that they heard rumours of another copy-cat and ask them to investigate. Shallan might even drop off a tip as Veil or something. That way, the info could come out into the open without Shallan's clandestine activities coming out.

Even if they investigate, they might find nothing. The scums have already stated they would not talk to the official investigators: Shallan got her information merely out of her association to the Ghostbloods. No one else will get anywhere close to the truth for this reason alone. Also, having people believe the murderer is not the same will be very hard: the fact the murder was identical is really hard to contradict. It not being the same murderer imply the second murderer has seen the first crime scene... It gets very complicated.

I assume Shallan could give out tips under Veil's disguise, but will it go a long way in terms of proof?

Also, Amaram does not know the copycat murderer is not the same individual. He is highly likely to conclude he is and, by doing such, he'd be eliminating Kaladin.

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

I think I need to take a step back and re-iterate what I think could happen... with a few extra ideas.

The scenario would be for something at the end of Part 1 - maybe about 5 days away in-world. So any evidence presented would be what is known at that point rather than what could be found out at a later point. Long term, a properly done investigation by highly capable people might well be able to find the evidence that Adolin is the prime suspect. Instead, it feels like what could happen is that there's very few useful leads and based on the lack of evidence for any particular suspect Amaram will make an accusation of there being a cover-up. He'll then present his alternative scenario where he believes Kaladin did it based on all sorts of circumstantial evidence. Like I said before, this would be much more of a political attack.

In the worst case where Amaram has been able to collect a lot of dirt on Kaladin then it would put real pressure on Dalinar, despite Amaram's reputation and so on. If the official investigation has gotten nowhere then a charge of there being a cover-up becomes more believable. What would Dalinar likely do in such a scenario is to increase the resources for the investigation, to try to find the true murderer. Since Shallan has already gotten involved (eg with the copy-cat side) and had demonstrated her problem solving skills with the Shattered Plains, it's likely that Dalinar would ask her. Maybe Renarin too. If Shallan becomes officially part of the investigation that might make it easier for her to publicly investigate the copy-cat murders as well, so I can see her agreeing to this.

Shallan getting involved would surely increase the pressure on Adolin another step. btw, with regards of the amount of pressure going through Adolin, consider this - nobody has really spotted the stress Shallan is going through, yet it's very definitely there. While Shallan is perhaps much more used to such things the level of pain she is dealing with is also much higher. We've also seen that Shallan is slowly recovering so it's possibly reasonable to assume that Adolin is getting used to it (for now).

Jasnah praised Shallan's ability to see subtle details back in tWoK (investigating Galivar's murder and events leading up to it, ironically enough) and has demonstrated good problem-solving skills many times, so I'm sure she'd be able to contribute to the investigation. Her ability to reason out Urithiru's interior may well come in handy as well. In which case we might get a scenario where Shallan guesses Adolin might be the killer before anyone else and then confronts him about it. I think Adolin would likely admit it. What would they then decide to do...?

There are eight chapters left, so ample time for them to find out the mark trail and/or the ruined clothing. Just because the story has been moving slowly so far does not mean it won't speed up, still I tend to agree with you time appears limited for part 1. It seems unlikely we will get a huge climax involving Adolin. Another problem with Amaram going with the Kaladin theory, as I highlighted above, is he has no idea the copycat murderer is not the same individual and is unlikely to conclude it is. Shallan admits Adolin's theory is not very strong, she doesn't even think it a valid one: how likely is Amaram to come forth, blame Kaladin and state it has to be him because Peveral was killed by someone else he cannot produce nor accuse as we know Peveral wasn't kill by a man?

Nobody is going to readily believe the double murderer theory unless proof is brought forward, hence Amaram can blame Kaladin.

Dalinar has already delegate the investigation to Aladar, the Highprince of Information, with Adolin to act as a linking agent. He can ask Aladar to deploy more resources, but this is about it. He could ask Shallan or Renarin to be tossed into the lot, but it seems unlikely given Dalinar's character.

On the matter of stress, people never noticed anything on Shallan because nobody knows Shallan. When you are new to a given individual, you are highly unlikely to catch signs of them being unnerved or behaving abnormally. What bothers me is how nobody within his family has noticed any signs onto Adolin when it comes to stress and pressure. My thoughts are Adolin just refuses to let anyone see what he goes through, he refuses to break, he refuses to collapse: he just can't. The problem with my theory is everyone has a threshold: Adolin pilling on so much on the inside ought to explode at some point, unless Brandon just unrealistically want to write him as the guy who just never breaks down. Ever. 

I do agree Shallan's ability to figure out the interior of Urithiru could help her narrow onto Adolin: the trail mark, the trail mark, the trail mark 

In the hypothetical scenario where Adolin admits his guilt to Shallan, I would think Shallan would argue to play possum. Do not tell anyone. Act as if nothing ever happened and leave to her to muddle the clues he might have left behind. I can't see Shallan arguing they ought to tell Dalinar....................... As for Adolin himself, he never dodged a question asked bluntly and directly, if asked, he is likely to speak the truth: he even asked Shallan to ask him and she didn't. He wants to get it out.

[Guest]

6 hours ago, maxal said:

As for Adolin himself, he never dodged a question asked bluntly and directly, if asked, he is likely to speak the truth: he even asked Shallan to ask him and she didn't. He wants to get it out.

She did ask him two times now. Once, on the murder scene with Perel and once, on the way to the meeting with Ialai. Both times, he shut down or gave a vague answer, like "Maybe."

True, the question with Perel was worded vaguely too by Shallan and I don't blame Adolin for answering as he did and he didn't really lie to her, but I'd argue, that Shallan gave Adolin ample opportunity to come clean and tell her. Especially, on the way to the Ialai meeting. He could and should have told her there. But instead, he said, "Maybe...", which Shallan completely misinterpreted as idle banter about mystery in a relationship.

But I do agree, that it is weighing on him. Still, he seems to be afraid of Shallan's reaction. Or anyone's really.

Edited October 24, 2017 by SLNC