[OB] What is up with Mraize and Ialai?

[Nathrangking he/him]

Nothing good that's for sure!!

[FollowYourMuse she/her]

6 hours ago, Toaster Retribution said:

I think he did it to show Shallan goodwill, yes. The Ghostbloods are an organization built on loyalty, just as you said. You get loyalty by showing goodwill, and by acting kindly toward your followers, like Kelsier for example. I think Mraize runs his organization in a similar manner, and I think he was honest when he told Shallan that he would give her brothers to her for free. Does he do it because he is a kind person, or because he likes Shallan? No, probably not. He does it because he wants her loyalty. But I think he realizes that using leverage is a bad way to go.

If I am remembering correctly the timeline. Mraize would have "saved" her brothers before he knew Shallon was Veil. So it was for his own purposes.

 

[Calderis he/him]

2 minutes ago, FollowYourMuse said:

If I am remembering correctly the timeline. Mraize would have "saved" her brothers before he knew Shallon was Veil. So it was for his own purposes.

We don't know when or how Mraize discovered Shallan's identity. 

This is just as speculative as what you're refuting. 

[Guest]

Actually, I like @SLNC's theory.

Ialai and Torol's plan, back in WoR, where to attack Adolin. Ialai warns Torol to be careful around Adolin, claiming the boy was a tool. Sadeas dismiss the warning saying he can't be cut by a weapon if he's the one holding it.

I find it entirely possible she might be trying to blame the murder on Adolin: the fact he did it or not may not matter. She is a schemer. Adolin notes everyone into the Sadeas camp is hostile to him. Dalinar is an enemy she wants to take down: what better way then to remove his influence, make him appear the opposite of what he claims to be? Turn his son into a murderer. It's been the plan, now wasn't it? Use the son to get to the father.

[aemetha he/him]

41 minutes ago, maxal said:

Turn his son into a murderer. It's been the plan, now wasn't it? Use the son to get to the father.

It fits with the copycat murders too if Ialai is behind them. Son and heir kills a family rival who probably deserved it, embarrassing but not house ending. Son turns out to be a twisted serial killer, that's much harder to come back from.

[TheDarkDesperado he/him]

My bet is on Mraize posing as some adviser of some sort (under an assumed name... or another assumed name, I'll eat my hat if Mraize is their real name), probably looking for some information or leverage, a Princedom without it's Prince is the perfect place to grab information, power, and resources before disappearing into the shadows. Ialai will probably accuse Adolin of the murder directly or indirectly, possibly using Mraize as witness or investigator or the like. for Mraize it's probably just part of a longer job.

[Toaster Retribution he/him]

5 hours ago, FollowYourMuse said:

If I am remembering correctly the timeline. Mraize would have "saved" her brothers before he knew Shallon was Veil. So it was for his own purposes.

We don't know the timeline exactly, so it is hard to tell. It is possible that he figured Shallans identity in time and saved them for her. He most likely had men watching the Davar estate already, and should be able to contact them easily with a spanreed.

I agree that it is possible that he saved them for another reason at first, but I think he will find that other reason less important compared to Shallan, and give her her brothers back.

[Shadowfax]

7 hours ago, TheDarkDesperado said:

I'll eat my hat if Mraize is their real name

Mraize is technically his title, I think. We don't actually know a name for him.

[FollowYourMuse she/her]

@Calderis, @Toaster Retribution, ok i agree it is speculating, on the time line. 

I do think it's likely he saved them as part of being Davars,  I do agree what ever his first reason was, even as protecting their own. Is moot since now he is using them to manipulate Shallan.

[Toaster Retribution he/him]

1 hour ago, Shadowfax said:

Mraize is technically his title, I think. We don't actually know a name for him.

This is fun, since Mraize technically is the Mraize, due to it being a title.

[kari-no-sugata]

A few thoughts on Ialai and her possible involvement with the Ghostbloods.

We have little real idea of what their goal is but Mraize and co do take a rather ruthless attitude - eg hunt or be hunted. Kill or be killed. They also seem to appreciate ambition. It was pointed out in chapter 21 that Sadeas's men shouldn't be taken lightly simply because they look rather messy. It's also pointed out that Sadeas made them compete with each other. That feels very similar to the Ghostbloods. So my guess would be that Ialai is not merely a client of the Ghostbloods, but a member. Not only that, she's probably been a member for a long time. Quite possibly Sadeas himself as well. If Mraize is officially the spy master or something like that then clearly he would have plans for Sadeas and presumably wanted Sadeas to become king.

In which case Mraize might well be very unhappy with Sadeas's death. I don't think he would necessarily be out for revenge though and instead will be trying to overthrow Dalinar or Elhokhar instead, I guess. He or Ialai might even be in contact with Taravangian and plan to do a joint attack when the Oathgate to Jah Keved opens.

For the copy-cat murders... I think it would be highly unlikely to be the work of a person or organisation who wants to threaten / blackmail / similar the other people. Why? Think about it - if you can only use these "threats" when someone else has been murdered first then you aren't in control - if all murders stop then you have nothing. In addition, by promising (effectively) to copy the murder shortly afterwards in a similar location then it makes it easier to be found. Also, what's the actual point of copying the murders so exactly? So in conclusion, it's doubtful that this is the work of someone sane or rational. The creepiness of the copying also suggests this and further suggests that something supernatural might be involved. Also, the more dangerous and hard to understand the copycat is the more it raises the stakes.

So I think Mraize wasn't behind the copycat murders and I also think that perhaps Mraize doesn't know about the 2nd copycat murder yet. Shallan hasn't told Adolin about the second one. If Shallan thinks that it would be better not to reveal this info to Mraize or Ialai then I'm sure she'll keep quiet about it. If she had told Adolin he would probably reveal it either way, so it might turn out to be important that Shallan didn't mention it to him. If Shallan withholds the information then it would most likely be because it would safer that way. If Mraize hasn't grasped what Shallan has about the copycat murders and is just as confused then it would probably be better to leave him confused.

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

For the copy-cat murders... I think it would be highly unlikely to be the work of a person or organisation who wants to threaten / blackmail / similar the other people. Why? Think about it - if you can only use these "threats" when someone else has been murdered first then you aren't in control - if all murders stop then you have nothing.

First of all, the intent of the Ghostbloods as a whole is still unknown, though, if Ialai really is a part of their organization, putting her in a better political position would be a goal, that they could certainly strive for, giving them a reason to try to damage Dalinars rep.

They have seen an opportunity and acted upon it. Murders happen. In any society. All the time. Especially in times of crisis and when members of different factions (the warcamps) are being crowded into the same place. I think, it is a safe bet, that there will be plenty of murders for them to act upon in the next times.

44 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

In addition, by promising (effectively) to copy the murder shortly afterwards in a similar location then it makes it easier to be found. Also, what's the actual point of copying the murders so exactly? So in conclusion, it's doubtful that this is the work of someone sane or rational. The creepiness of the copying also suggests this and further suggests that something supernatural might be involved. Also, the more dangerous and hard to understand the copycat is the more it raises the stakes.

I'll quote myself to answer this.

Quote

It would not be good, if Ialai would have kept killing random people in the same way her husband died. Do it once, yes, but after that wait for "natural" murders to occur (which are bound to happen in crisis situations) and copy them. Why? Simple, everyone knows, that Ialai Sadeas is a snake and capable of dishing out petty revenge. Keep killing people in the same manner, that her husband died and she would attract attention, regardless of being the grieving widow.

But! Create "coincidences", create a mystery. And you can keep playing the grieving widow to complete your perfect alibi. Copy the first murder to send a reminder to the suspected killer (Adolin) and keep going by copying other "natural" occuring murders. Ialai knows Adolin. She knows which buttons she has to press to make him break - by making him responsible (in his mind) for the death of innocents. He's just a too noble soul.

There is perfect rationality to it. If it suggests something supernatural? Even better! It detracts any attention the Ghostbloods might receive. The fact, that Ialai is a fresh grieving widow helps immensely too and creates another safeguard. Another self-quote

Quote

So, Adolin might be inclined to just out Ialai and say that she confessed the copy murders to him. But who would believe him? 1. She has no motive. 2. She's grieving. Pity can be a greaaaat alibi.

 

44 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

So I think Mraize wasn't behind the copycat murders and I also think that perhaps Mraize doesn't know about the 2nd copycat murder yet. Shallan hasn't told Adolin about the second one. If Shallan thinks that it would be better not to reveal this info to Mraize or Ialai then I'm sure she'll keep quiet about it. If she had told Adolin he would probably reveal it either way, so it might turn out to be important that Shallan didn't mention it to him. If Shallan withholds the information then it would most likely be because it would safer that way. If Mraize hasn't grasped what Shallan has about the copycat murders and is just as confused then it would probably be better to leave him confused.

I don't know. I didn't think that Mraize knew Veil is Shallan either. I'll go with the assumption, that he always knows more than we should him to expect to know.

Edited October 14, 2017 by SLNC

[Toaster Retribution he/him]

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

He or Ialai might even be in contact with Taravangian and plan to do a joint attack when the Oathgate to Jah Keved opens.

Mraize thinks Taravangian is an old fool who doesn't understand what he is doing, so I doubt it.

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

For the copy-cat murders... I think it would be highly unlikely to be the work of a person or organisation who wants to threaten / blackmail / similar the other people. Why? Think about it - if you can only use these "threats" when someone else has been murdered first then you aren't in control - if all murders stop then you have nothing. In addition, by promising (effectively) to copy the murder shortly afterwards in a similar location then it makes it easier to be found. Also, what's the actual point of copying the murders so exactly? So in conclusion, it's doubtful that this is the work of someone sane or rational. The creepiness of the copying also suggests this and further suggests that something supernatural might be involved. Also, the more dangerous and hard to understand the copycat is the more it raises the stakes.

I see good points in this.

 

[kari-no-sugata]

1 hour ago, Toaster Retribution said:

Mraize thinks Taravangian is an old fool who doesn't understand what he is doing, so I doubt it.

Assuming Mraize was referring to Taravangian (and that does seem reasonable) then that was before Taravangian became king of Jah Keved and blew away all of Mraize's assumptions about the guy

 

1 hour ago, SLNC said:

There is perfect rationality to it. If it suggests something supernatural? Even better! It detracts any attention the Ghostbloods might receive. The fact, that Ialai is a fresh grieving widow helps immensely too and creates another safeguard. Another self-quote

Forcing yourself to act under unnecessary constraints when doing something dangerous is not rational. And continuing with once off copycat murders if anything puts less emphasis on Sadeas. And if the point is to put pressure on the powers that be (ie the lighteyes) then killing someone so insignificant that it took Shallan taking undercover action to find out about it is not a sign of rationality.

If someone connected with Sadeas wanted to "send a message" specifically about Sadeas then I could understand if they kept copying Sadeas's murder multiple times. But copying a completely unrelated murder and of someone "insignificant" does the opposite. You suggest that this gives Ialai an alibi as a benefit but that seems a rather pointless thing to do if you want revenge.

Edited October 14, 2017 by kari-no-sugata

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

And if the point is to put pressure on the powers that be (ie the lighteyes) then killing someone so insignificant that it took Shallan taking undercover action to find out about it is not a sign of rationality.

The point is to pressure Adolin into confessing. And thus weakening Dalinar. Even if Adolin doesn't confess, mysterious serial murders create chaos in an already uncertain situation - governed by Dalinar. I see a perfect sense in it.

7 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

If someone connected with Sadeas wanted to "send a message" specifically about Sadeas then I could understand if they kept copying Sadeas's murder multiple times. But copying a completely unrelated murder and of someone "insignificant" does the opposite.

Ialai is in the position to simply tell Adolin, that she is behind the the murders. Even if he outs her, no one would believe or support him, except maybe Shallan, who, as Adolin's betrothed, is not really believable either. The murders are just a means to the end of putting pressure on Adolin. The significance of the persons murdered is unimportant.

Edited October 14, 2017 by SLNC

[kari-no-sugata]

1 minute ago, SLNC said:

The point is to pressure Adolin into confessing. And thus weakening Dalinar. Even if Adolin doesn't confess, mysterious serial murders create chaos in an already uncertain situation - governed by Dalinar. I see a perfect sense in it.

Ialai is in the position to simply tell Adolin, that she is behind the the murders. The murders are just a means to the end of putting pressure on Adolin. The significance of the persons murdered is unimportant.

So you think Ialai believes that Adolin did it but has no evidence? After all, if she had evidence that would be the logical thing to use. And if so, why wait 10 days to talk to Adolin then?

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

So you think Ialai believes that Adolin did it but has no evidence? After all, if she had evidence that would be the logical thing to use. And if so, why wait 10 days to talk to Adolin then?

Did you even read my post in it's entirety?

Sorry, it isn't meant to be harsh, but I want to make sure, that we are talking on the same page here.

Quote

I think, that Ialai needing to be "convinced" for a meeting was just a stalling tactic. She needed to have something to show to Adolin, that she means business. So, she and Mraize wait for another murder to occur and copy it. It happens and they call the meeting, in which she simply tells Adolin: "Those copy-cat murders? That was us. Oh, and we'll keep going. Unless you confess."

Yes, Ialai has no evidence, but I think, she believes it is Adolin.

@maxal posted an excerpt from that Sadeas PoV there, which gives some possible insight on why Ialai might draw the connection to Adolin. I won't requote everything right now.

Edited October 14, 2017 by SLNC

[kari-no-sugata]

18 minutes ago, SLNC said:

Did you even read my post in it's entirety?

Yes, Ialai has no evidence, but I think, she believes it is Adolin.

@maxal posted an excerpt from that Sadeas PoV there, which gives some possible insight on why Ialai might draw the connection to Adolin. I won't requote everything right now.

Okay... so you think Ialai doesn't particularly care whether it was Adolin or not but just wants an excuse to force him to confess to something he didn't necessarily do by being twisted and sadistic? And this is supposed to be "rational"? Really? Doing things like that almost always has the opposite effect.

If she was going to go that far, she wouldn't wait for a natural murder. She's cause one herself then copy it herself.

btw, this second copycat was "a few days back". So even if it was 2 days ago at the time, Ialai waited an extra day.

 

PS My guess is that if Ialai is going to target anyone, it'll be Renarin the "creepy one" who mysteriously became a Radiant.

Edited October 14, 2017 by kari-no-sugata

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

And this is supposed to be "rational"? Really? Doing things like that almost always has the opposite effect.

She wants revenge, which might be irrational. The way she attains it is rational - that is the important thing. And actually makes sense in regard of her character. Always scheming.

 

13 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

If she was going to go that far, she wouldn't wait for a natural murder. She's cause one herself then copy it herself.

btw, this second copycat was "a few days back". So even if it was 2 days ago at the time, Ialai waited an extra day.

In the end, it doesn't matter. The situation in Urithiru is tense anyway. Murders happen in tense situations. No need to rush it, just play the safe route.

Also, Veil asked about the murders the night before and used the GB symbol. I suppose, that Mraize got wind of that, told Ialai, that its possible that Adolin, since they both know Shallan, who is Veil, is involved with him, now knows about the second murder and so Ialai finally allowed the meeting to happen. Of course, they don't know, that Shallan hasn't told Adolin of the murder yet.

13 minutes ago, kari-no-sugata said:

PS My guess is that if Ialai is going to target anyone, it'll be Renarin the "creepy one" who mysteriously became a Radiant.

You can guess what you want, but there is textual evidence, that Torol targeted Adolin and discussed it with Ialai, who warned him about Adolin. She knows of Adolins ability and it really is not stretch for her to figure, that Torol made his move and lost.

Edited October 14, 2017 by SLNC

[Guest]

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

Okay... so you think Ialai doesn't particularly care whether it was Adolin or not but just wants an excuse to force him to confess to something he didn't necessarily do by being twisted and sadistic? And this is supposed to be "rational"? Really? Doing things like that almost always has the opposite effect.

My thoughts are Ialai and Torol had a plan to over-throw Dalinar. Five days passed after Dalinar won his big battle and found Urithiru. News of the Radiants having returned and Dalinar having been right had traveled to the Shattered Plains together with an invite to join them. Sadeas came. Surely, during those five days he and Ialai hatched a plan. Torol's little speech to Adolin can't have been the inspiration of the moment: the Sadeas are too cunning. Thus, there was a plan. Did it involve Adolin? Maybe. Maybe not, but the Sadeas had previously identified Adolin as Dalinar's weakest link, oddly enough. Was he still in the plan? We honestly do not know, but if someone is cunning enough to use her husband's death to her benefit, it ought to be Ialai, not to forget she would think she is honoring his memories if she uses his death to continue his work.

We also know Adolin did leave clues behind him: figuring out it was him isn't impossible, he is just too much of an unlikely pick for May Aladar to even try to pin it on him nor think of him. Also, Dalinar trusts Bridge 4 did not do it, he won't believe it is Adolin unless he confesses. Could have Ialai used the same clues to deduct it might be him? She warned Torol to be careful around Adolin, she warned him the boy was a tool and he could get hurt if he pushes him too far. When Torol ends up dead, it doesn't seem such a leap of logic she would think it was the Kholin boy who did it, Sadeas's favorite playing toy.

Now, I don't know if she has anything to do with the copy-cat murders. The second murder is odd and I agree with you it is a twisted message to send.I also agree waiting for a murder to happen to send a message doesn't strike me as a strategy. So maybe it wasn't her, but it doesn't mean she isn't trying to use it to her advantage... I mean, the question we need to answer is: "What does Ialai want and what can she do to achieve it?". I say she wants to remain politically relevant, avenge her husband's death and finishing up his work by destroying Dalinar. Adolin used to be the plan, maybe he became the plan again now Torol is dead. It is easy, so easy. Everyone knows Adolin hated Sadeas, everyone saw him being angry at Sadeas, everyone knew he wanted to get back to him: how much persuading does she have to do to convince her allies this is an opportunity to harm Dalinar?

1 hour ago, kari-no-sugata said:

PS My guess is that if Ialai is going to target anyone, it'll be Renarin the "creepy one" who mysteriously became a Radiant.

I don't think she would target Renarin. Politically speaking it makes no sense to target Renarin. She would need to convince her allies Renarin is the right target and is worth their time an energy to take him out. Renarin might be creepy, but he is not a big fish, even now he is a Radiant, nobody knows what he can do. As far as the outside observer is concerned, it is an empty title, meaningless. Thus, while taking out Renarin would hurt Dalinar is doesn't cripple the Kholin princedom. Renarin has no official function, he does little to no work into the princedom, him being there or not changes nothing on how Dalinar manages things: removing him is just an emotional setback, a dangerous one at that as Dalinar would not take it kindly to see people harm his youngest son. He is fiercely protective of him in ways he isn't with Adolin.

Adolin however... As far as everyone is concerned, Adolin is the important one. He is the one doing all the work, running the princedom, managing the armies, doing the investigation, seeing to the day-to-day tasks. Of all the Kholins, Adolin is the most useful one, the one they cannot go without. He is Dalinar's second in command and right-hand man. He's also the heir and the next Highprince. After his dueling spree, he also proved he had it in him to fight and win impossible fights. Ialai's allies likely see him as a threat, an annoyance, a boy growing into a dangerous man and they don't want it. Nobody wants Adolin to reach his maturity and to become a force to reckon with: they'll want him out before. Now they have an opportunity. It is also very easy for the outside observer to reason out losing Adolin would cripple Dalinar much more than losing Renarin. With Adolin, there is the emotional setback (though probably not has harsh as losing Renarin) and there is the day-to-day setback. If Adolin is gone, then whom is going to do his work? 

My point is, if Ialai wants both vengeance and to stay on track with the plan, Adolin is the right target. Renarin is just not an interesting fish to catch. 

1 hour ago, SLNC said:

Also, Veil asked about the murders the night before and used the GB symbol. I suppose, that Mraize got wind of that, told Ialai, that its possible that Adolin, since they both know Shallan, who is Veil, is involved with him, now knows about the second murder and so Ialai finally allowed the meeting to happen. Of course, they don't know, that Shallan hasn't told Adolin of the murder yet.

I don't think they agree to the meeting on the morning it is being held... Also Mraize can't have known in advance Shallan would show up: the meeting was in between Adolin and Ialai. So maybe it is all tied, in some weird twisted way, but systematically copying random murders is an odd strategy. 

1 hour ago, SLNC said:

You can guess what you want, but there is textual evidence, that Torol targeted Adolin and discussed it with Ialai, who warned him about Adolin. She knows of Adolins ability and it really is not stretch for her to figure, that Torol made his move and lost.

These are my thoughts too. When I re-read the passage, I thought it was strong foreshadowing for Ialai connecting the dots and thinking it might have been Adolin. I also do not think she needs evidence to plan a revenge, she may just be trying to get him to confess. She can't know for sure, but she may be reasonably sure to make her move. Likely, she has a back-up plan is Adolin comes out clean.

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, maxal said:

Also Mraize can't have known in advance Shallan would show up: the meeting was in between Adolin and Ialai. So maybe it is all tied, in some weird twisted way, but systematically copying random murders is an odd strategy. 

I know, but it doesn't make a difference, that Mraize didn't know that.

I was just putting out a possibility, why Ialai suddenly accepted a meeting.

Veil uses GB symbol -> Mraize catches that, he figures, Shallan tells Adolin about it, since they are involved and Adolin is the officially appointed investigator -> Mraize tells Ialai, that Adolin probably knows about the second murder -> Ialai accepts a meeting to put pressure on Adolin

The fact, that Shallan is coming to the meeting with Adolin is really not important for that. Mraize just gave Ialai the tip, that Adolin might have gotten wind of the second murder by now. So, they try to catch him and make their demands, before the investigates more.

I know it's an odd strategy, but the fact, that even we, with extended knowledge about the whole situation, deem it to be odd makes it perfect. The oddity of it really eliminates any connection to Ialai. And she really has no risk of telling Adolin, because of reasons I've already specified. No one would believe him anyway, but push on his guilt and he breaks down.

And, of course, waiting for random murders to happen is a strategy. Murders happen, especially in times of crisis, Ialai knows that and she really has all the time she needs, so she just can wait.

 

But hell, maybe I'm just completely wrong and she's not behind the copy-cat murders. Like you, maxal, already said, I could see why Ialai might try to exploit the situation to her benefit. She might not be behind the murders, but I'm 90 % sure, that she is targeting Adolin somehow.

Edited October 14, 2017 by SLNC

[kari-no-sugata]

I think that there has to be some meaning in Ialai agreeing to the meeting with Adolin. I have no doubt that she plans to gain something from it. However, I feel hesitant about predicting what that might be. It might even be something from left field like trying to recruit Adolin - in which case, Mraize and Shallan being there would suddenly take on a whole new meaning. Whatever it is I doubt it's going to be fun for Adolin. I also wouldn't be surprised if Ialai tries to use the copy-cat murder to some end. At the very least, I'm sure it'll come up in the discussion, one way or the other.

However, I think there also has to be some meaning for Shallan's investigations with Veil. From a story telling perspective, having Shallan find out a deeper mystery only for it to be explained a few chapters later seems unlikely, and having Shallan find out about it only for Ialai or Mraize to also reveal it feels like it would make Shallan's investigations rather pointless. It feels like something that should become more mysterious rather than less. "Oh some weirdo in the Ghostbloods did it" feels like a let-down. In addition, I feel that Shallan not yet telling Adolin about the second copy-cat is going to make some kind of difference. It might be a positive difference or it might be negative one. For example, if Ialai (or Mraize) try to use the copy-cat murder in some way but the way the words are phrased indicates that they don't know about the second copy-cat then that would be rather interesting, and could allow for Shallan to gain the jump on them in some way. However, it might have been better for Shallan to tell Adolin about it beforehand instead, in some circumstances. So many options.

Going back to my theory that Ialai (and probably Sadeas) have been involved with the Ghostbloods for some time: based on Shallan's feelings so far, I don't think she'll ever come to side with the Ghostbloods long term and I don't think she'll side with Ialai either. I think they're too incompatible. However, that might force her to decide between her brothers and the Kholins. That's not going to be fun. Particularly if Jasnah returns before that's resolved. I thought the same after WoR and it still feels the same so far.

Without things getting violent, the most extreme thing I can think of happening during this meeting is that something triggers the thought in Shallan's mind that Adolin was in fact the one to kill Sadeas. Shallan has picked up several clues in this regard, but they're all rather vague by themselves and there's no real "smoking gun". I'm sure Shallan will find this out sooner or later, one way or the other, but this would perhaps be the worst possible timing.

Anyway... it's going to be interesting for sure. Not knowing much about either Mraize or Ialai does make things quite a lot harder to predict.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, SLNC said:

Veil uses GB symbol -> Mraize catches that, he figures, Shallan tells Adolin about it, since they are involved and Adolin is the officially appointed investigator -> Mraize tells Ialai, that Adolin probably knows about the second murder -> Ialai accepts a meeting to put pressure on Adolin

Why now? Why agree to meet Adolin because Shallan discovered the second murder? There is nothing to tie in the second murder to the first: the culprit found swore he did not copy his own murder. If anything what Shallan uncovered is proof Sadeas's murdered is not the same man as Peverel's murderer. How does this help Ialai?

3 hours ago, SLNC said:

I know it's an odd strategy, but the fact, that even we, with extended knowledge about the whole situation, deem it to be odd makes it perfect. The oddity of it really eliminates any connection to Ialai. And she really has no risk of telling Adolin, because of reasons I've already specified. No one would believe him anyway, but push on his guilt and he breaks down.

And, of course, waiting for random murders to happen is a strategy. Murders happen, especially in times of crisis, Ialai knows that and she really has all the time she needs, so she just can wait.

But hell, maybe I'm just completely wrong and she's not behind the copy-cat murders. Like you, maxal, already said, I could see why Ialai might try to exploit the situation to her benefit. She might not be behind the murders, but I'm 90 % sure, that she is targeting Adolin somehow.

Well, I am not saying the theory is wrong: I am honestly sitting on the fence with this one.

I think the rational can be made Ialai is into for something in the event, but I have to admit the second murder points more towards another culprit. Unless she had the second murder happen on purpose by gloating the right person: he was a Sadeas's soldier now wasn't he? He had a feud with his brother now didn't he? What if Ialai's contribution is making the second murder happen just so it could be copied? Now this is twisted, but I wonder why this is a more effective strategy then just kill random people using Adolin's killing method...

I however also think she is cunning enough to use a random event to her own advantage, but Mraize being with her does point towards a deeper involvement. Hard to tell if anything it certainly isn't boring!

I certainly agree she is targeting Adolin. Here are more quotes on the matter.

WoR, Chapter 58

Quote

 

"Organize all of your informants," Sadeas said, looking up at the ceiling. "Every spy you have, every source you know. Find me something, Ialai. Something to hurt him."

She nodded.

"And after that," Sadeas said, "it will be time to make use of those assassins you've planted.".

He had to ensure that Dalinar was desperate and wounded - had to guarantee that the others viewed him as broken, ruined.

Then he'd end this.

 

This passage, right here, tells me Sadeas's end goal wasn't merely to kill Dalinar, it was to hurt him, to see him, beaten, broken and then gloat before he ends it. He wants him to suffer: he doesn't just want him dead, he mostly want him to see him victorious.

WoR, Chapter 68

Quote

 

He passed officers and scribes crossing the bridge, including Adolin and Shallan, who walked side by side.

...

Behind them, on the other side of the chasm, stood the worker who had called Dalinar back across.

...

Ahead of him, Adolin spun immediately and started running, searching for whatever danger Kaladin had spotted. He left a bewildered Shallan standing in the brigde's center. 

 

Alright. This one is far-fetched, I agree to it, but something clicked in my head today. Of course, there are about 85% chances I am wrong, but something always occurred me as wrong within this scene. If I were an assassin and I was trying to kill a man by dropping a bridge on him, I wouldn't call him back: I would drop the bridge when he is standing at the center of it. As it was, Dalinar was just on the edge of it: this is why Adolin can push him to safety. Dalinar could have very well reacted on him own and step out in time. It seems too uncertain for a skill assassin to risk it, to chance it.

Here I come with my far-fetched theory.... What if, just what if, the target had NOT been Dalinar? Remember how  everyone thought Szeth was targeting Elhokar when he attacked only to find out his target was Dalinar? So what if everyone is mistaken in thinking it was Dalinar the assassin was trying to send to his death? What if him calling him back was a mere gamble, an opportunity he thought he had to kill two men with one stone? 

Had Dalinar been the target, then why hasn't the man drop the bridge before, when Dalinar was standing towards its middle? Why wait? And whom was at the center of  the bridge? Adolin.

Hence, what if the target had not been Dalinar, what if the target had been Adolin all along? Sadeas wanted to hurt Dalinar, to make him suffer, to break him, so what if the assassins were ordered to kill Adolin and not Dalinar? It makes no sense he would send a man to kill Dalinar: if Dalinar is dead, then he can't be seen as broken and Sadeas cannot gloat in his victory, but if Adolin is killed because Dalinar was careless........ And Sadeas expresses the desire NOT to see Adolin keep on maturing into a worthy opponent.

What if everyone onto Dalinar's camp are not looking in the right direction? While they are off making their political reaching, thinking they have unity, not bothering themselves with the Sadeas, what if Ialai never stopped targeting Adolin? Dalinar never sure considered the possibility his son might have been the target...

I mean is it so far-fetched?

2 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

However, I think there also has to be some meaning for Shallan's investigations with Veil. From a story telling perspective, having Shallan find out a deeper mystery only for it to be explained a few chapters later seems unlikely, and having Shallan find out about it only for Ialai or Mraize to also reveal it feels like it would make Shallan's investigations rather pointless. It feels like something that should become more mysterious rather than less. "Oh some weirdo in the Ghostbloods did it" feels like a let-down. In addition, I feel that Shallan not yet telling Adolin about the second copy-cat is going to make some kind of difference. It might be a positive difference or it might be negative one. For example, if Ialai (or Mraize) try to use the copy-cat murder in some way but the way the words are phrased indicates that they don't know about the second copy-cat then that would be rather interesting, and could allow for Shallan to gain the jump on them in some way. However, it might have been better for Shallan to tell Adolin about it beforehand instead, in some circumstances. So many options.

This paragraph makes a lot of sense: why wasted Shallan investigating if it turns out a no issue? She has to have uncovered something bigger, something more dangerous, something Ialai and Mraize could be behind, or not. I am really not sure how it will unraveled, but I am growing increasingly convinced the Sadeas were planning to harm Adolin and with Torol dead, Ialai is sticking to the plan. She will finish Torol's work, she will first take out Adolin, discredit Dalinar and finally, when he is alone and broken, she will kill him.

2 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

Going back to my theory that Ialai (and probably Sadeas) have been involved with the Ghostbloods for some time: based on Shallan's feelings so far, I don't think she'll ever come to side with the Ghostbloods long term and I don't think she'll side with Ialai either. I think they're too incompatible. However, that might force her to decide between her brothers and the Kholins. That's not going to be fun. Particularly if Jasnah returns before that's resolved. I thought the same after WoR and it still feels the same so far.

I am thinking Shallan being present will be the icing on the cake for Mraize: it might give him more cords to manipulate Shallan. She could use potential knowledge of Adolin being the culprit to make her do things she wouldn't have agreed to,

I am starting to think she will have to take down the Ghostbloods if she is to be free. It might be necessary to protect Adolin too. 

2 hours ago, kari-no-sugata said:

Anyway... it's going to be interesting for sure. Not knowing much about either Mraize or Ialai does make things quite a lot harder to predict.

Most interesting story arc ever 

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, maxal said:

Why now? Why agree to meet Adolin because Shallan discovered the second murder? There is nothing to tie in the second murder to the first: the culprit found swore he did not copy his own murder. If anything what Shallan uncovered is proof Sadeas's murdered is not the same man as Peverel's murderer. How does this help Ialai?

Ah, but there is something that ties the two together, that it is a second copied murder. You can't deny that connection.

How does that help Ialai? Because she now knows, that Adolin probably knows about different copied murders happening and can use that to push on his guilt. As hotheaded as Adolin is, she also knows that he won't let innocents die for him. She tells him, that the innocents die because of him. She needed the second murder to have something to show Adolin, that she means business. Words are meaningless, action is everything.

48 minutes ago, maxal said:

I am thinking Shallan being present will be the icing on the cake for Mraize: it might give him more cords to manipulate Shallan. She could use potential knowledge of Adolin being the culprit to make her do things she wouldn't have agreed to,

I am starting to think she will have to take down the Ghostbloods if she is to be free. It might be necessary to protect Adolin too. 

I agree with this.

Edited October 14, 2017 by SLNC

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, maxal said:

but I wonder why this is a more effective strategy then just kill random people using Adolin's killing method...

Because it keeps her image of being the grieving widow intact. If someone keeps killing people with the same method it really begins to look like a simple revenge ploy and the connection to Ialai is not hard to make, but if she creates this mystery murder thing, everyone who would blame her would be dismissed immediately, because she just can play the grieving widow.

She's not trying to be effective, but she also doesn't have to be. She has time and she knows it.

But I'm repeating myself.