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Long Game 26: Cognitive Dissonance


Nyali

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3 hours ago, AliasSheep said:

For a given kill, the eliminators have a 0% chance of hitting an elim, and an x% chance of hitting a villager, while simultaneously having a chance to hit an independent who might help the village.  I don't see why it isn't in the elim's self interest to try and kill someone every turn.

 

okay, I have no idea about the ratios, but let's say 1/2 village versus 1/2 independent, as a conservative estimate of the ratio, and a rough ratio of 2 and 1/2 actions:1 single kill action (thats not counting some investiture gain is time dependent).

1st: Regardless, taking one kill action is at t.he very least going to take up roughly one night at least to replenish, likely more. So killing is a signifigant investment, and weakens you temporarilly investiture wise.

2nd: It encourages reprisal and independents to "circle the wagons" with villagers. If independent faction, ghost bloods or others get attacked, they'd be inclined to respond to defend their interests. This would mean potentially allying with villagers, creating more enemies and problems ecetera. Potentially, the elim;s would be doubling the number of people they have to kill. Thats a lot of time, effort, and more room for failure.

3rd: Individual goals. Everyone's individual goals make this a lot more complicated as well. Some of GOH probably need to interact with Independents in order to win. Killing indiscriminately won't allow them to achieve those goals. To much attacking of independents could cause internal strife between those who needed to interact to win and those who didn't. 

Sure, eventually indiscriminate killing might help them mop the children up and stop independents from achieving win con's, but right now?

 

Edited by Dalinar Kholin
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3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Are you implying to be a Son of Honor, then? Only other alternative I could see is Skybreaker. Unless killing the Ghostbloods is a non-faction affiliated win con.

Good point. Killing all the ghostbloods seems like pretty serious win con for one person to have. I mean, normally it takes all of the villagers to combat a hidden faction.

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Just now, The Only Joe said:

It is a pretty serious win con. But i can kill a person each night, so i should have the capacity to do it. Unless the Ghostbloods are far stronger than I thought. 

So you're going to kill a person every night in the hope that you hit a Ghostblood? I'm keeping my vote on you for sure.

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No, I'm going to kill players who claim to be part of a faction that isn't the CoA or the GoH. That narrows it down pretty far. In fact, to just you so far. I don't have any other targets, and since you're not on my planet, I can't attack you tonight anyway. So I'll be doing something else tonight, and then i might worldhop so that Tomorrow I'm not stuck on a world with a Ghostblood assassin.

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1 minute ago, The Only Joe said:

No, I'm going to kill players who claim to be part of a faction that isn't the CoA or the GoH. That narrows it down pretty far. In fact, to just you so far. I don't have any other targets, and since you're not on my planet, I can't attack you tonight anyway. So I'll be doing something else tonight, and then i might worldhop so that Tomorrow I'm not stuck on a world with a Ghostblood assassin.

So you're not going to attack someone every night?

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I am not going to attack someone every night. (Disclaimer; I might actually end up attacking someone every night, but again, Only if I happen to be on a world with someone who is probably a ghostblood. Because I know of no ghostbloods on my current planet, I won't be attacking anyone tonight, unless, of course, One of them is proven to be a ghostblood before the end of the night.)

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I should start this post by saying that I don't really trust either Joe or PK, so I'm going to try to use what information I do know to see if I can work anything out.

In the books, the Ghostbloods are a faction who's objective we don't exactly know, though they're interested in the Desolations and the Parshendi; two things that are closely tied to Odium. It's hard to tell whether they're for or against Odium, but I personally think they are against them. In the context of this game, however, they're at least not on the same team, though it's possible they could choose either side. Unless Nyali brought some pretty minor characters into this, I can only really imagine Mraize, Iyatil and possibly Veil among them. I would guess it's open too if it consists of those three characters, but I suppose it could be hidden as well.

I personally have a goal that involves bringing a specific character to justice. Another player also revealed that he had a similar goal in the Nalthis PM last turn so I know that it's a reoccurring concept (though there are different conditions to them). One person having a secondary goal to kill three players though? That seems like a tall order to me. Then again my third goal is super limiting, so I guess it's not too much of a stretch to believe. Depending on what Joe's third goal is, I might be inclined to believe it.

Here's the thing though. Attacks generally cost a decent amount of Investiture. I'm pretty sure most players, especially Joe, would be mindful of wasting their investiture that quick... unless they have a lot to spare. Soooo I'm kinda concerned about that.

But yeah, Joe is definitely off the hook for now. I noticed a player color Ghostbloods pink at one point in this game, and then quickly edit it out to black. So I'm pretty sure that color is accurate.

EDIT: Oh right! I got distracted by the ninjas.

@Doctor12, @iohn, @Conquestor, @I_am_a_Stick, @Arraenae, @Silverblade5, @Frozen Mint, @Ecthelion III, @little wilson, @The Young Bard, @Burnt Spaghetti, @Darkness Ascendant, @Araris Valerian, @Wonko the Sane, @AliasSheep, @Straw, @Bugsy6912, @OrlokTsubodai, @dowanx, @Sart, @TheMightyLopen, @Mark IV, @livinglegend, @Clanky, @Bridge Boy, @Dalinar Kholin, @Haelbarde, @luckat, @STINK, just to confirm, did any of you get attacked?

Edited by Amanuensis
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20 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

But yeah, Joe is definitely off the hook for now. I noticed a player color Ghostbloods pink at one point in this game, and then quickly edit it out to black. So I'm pretty sure that color is accurate.

EDIT: Oh right! I got distracted by the ninjas.

@Doctor12, @iohn, @Conquestor, @I_am_a_Stick, @Arraenae, @Silverblade5, @Frozen Mint, @Ecthelion III, @little wilson, @The Young Bard, @Burnt Spaghetti, @Darkness Ascendant, @Araris Valerian, @Wonko the Sane, @AliasSheep, @Straw, @Bugsy6912, @OrlokTsubodai, @dowanx, @Sart, @TheMightyLopen, @Mark IV, @livinglegend, @Clanky, @Bridge Boy, @Dalinar Kholin, @Haelbarde, @luckat, @STINK, just to confirm, did any of you get attacked?

Really? Might I ask after the name of that player?

You didn't ask if I was attacked. :( (I wasn't, but still, it hurts to be ignored)

Edited by The Only Joe
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3 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

Really? Might I ask after the name of that player?

You didn't ask if I was attacked. :( (I wasn't, but still, it hurts to be ignored)

Sorry. I made a promise not to get involved in other people's goals if it involved murder. I just noticed it happen and asked if other people saw it in my PM, and then all this nonsense happened, so it ended up becoming relevant. I was really hoping you were going to say purple or something so I could call you a dirty liar and help lynch you :P

I didn't include you because I assumed you would have mentioned it already in your defense :P sorry @The Only Joe... is that better?

I was going to ask you how much investiture your kill costs, however.

Edited by Amanuensis
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13 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If they have ten Invesiture it's a passive. Look in the common powers. And while that's a valid point, so long as the Awakeners keep themselves a secret, and everyone keeps track of players movements, it won't be as simple as Rayse trying to dodge them. And I reckon there's multiples of Awakeners with 10+ investiture too, so we might be able to find a way to split it. Like A-M names check Nalthis, Scadrial and Taldain N-Z through Sel, Roshar and Taldain, in whatever random order they want.

Also, as a note. @Silverblade5 investigated me last night. What did you learn?

I have learned that you are from Scadrial. If you feel like helping me learn more, I'll be on Taladin next cycle.

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1 minute ago, The Only Joe said:

That would be tantamount to declaring how I kill, so I will say that it costs between 3 and 7 Investiture.

Ah, I was guessing that it was a special action and not one of the common powers. Very well then.

Edited by Amanuensis
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