Mid-Range Game 15: The Dula Revolution

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Aeleus sighed and shook his head. Politics.

[Elenion he/him]

I'm electing Cloud; he's the only confirmed role here (except for Eramit, but he's dead to me, the traitor).

[cloudjumper he/him]

Ren, can Korathi be converted to Shu-Dereth?

 

Election

Cloud (5): Ecthelion, Elbereth, Elenion, Elhondras, Bard

Recall

Bard (1): Elhondras

Edited July 12, 2016 by cloudjumper
Oops

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, cloudjumper said:

Ren, can Korathi be converted to Shu-Dereth?

 

How does conversion even work? I've heard it referenced but I don't see any abilities that allow someone to do that.

[cloudjumper he/him]

On 7/11/2016 at 9:39 PM, Elenion said:

How does conversion even work? I've heard it referenced but I don't see any abilities that allow someone to do that.

Oh. Right. Wrong game. Never mind. I keep forgetting.

Edited July 12, 2016 by cloudjumper

[Elenion he/him]

What, LG23?

[cloudjumper he/him]

On 7/11/2016 at 9:40 PM, Elenion said:

What, LG23?

Yes

[Elenion he/him]

Don't get spiked, but if you are, please die a horrible death. 

[cloudjumper he/him]

On 7/11/2016 at 9:43 PM, Elenion said:

Don't get spiked, but if you are, please die a horrible death. 

I'll try not to get spiked then.

[eramit he/him]

7 hours ago, Elenion said:

Mayday! Mayday! Eramit is the full-out Derethi Gyorn! Get me a lynching rope!

The society in our days is in a bad spot... lynching someone just because of his belifes...

[Eolhondras he/him]

I think its a given that we'll be electing cloud this night cycle, and eramit will be lynched tomorrow, so my focus wont be on them.
 

@The Young Bard Bard, you had a very aggressive start, so much that it was a big topic of conversation for some time, yet you've been quiet for quite some time now, why the change? We've heard Elenion doesn't mind losing his place in the senate, how would you feel if you lost yours? (Also Australian buddies, yayayay!!)

A reminder that whoever is elected is protected this night cycle, so protective roles, chose a target that you trust other than them. There will be two potential kills tonight, disregarding the Kesegan monk, so please use your roles

I'm not sure how to comment on @Straw's actions, but definitely use that page man! even if you don't want to say much there, make sure to add people so that they can chat together. You don't have a confirmed good guy this cycle like you did last, but don't let that stop you adding someone you have a good feeling about.

@OrlokTsubodai think this games due for a healthy dose of controversy, what's happening? I'd also like to hear you expand on your thoughts on Aman if you're willing?

[Elenion he/him]

Here's my breakdown:

1. Elect @cloudjumper, giving him invulnerability tonight.

2. Cloud can then use his duelist's ability on one of us (wink, wink, nudge, nudge). 

3. Lynch the traitor Eramit tomorrow, proving once and for all that I'm not Derethi.

4. Don't vote anyone out because we need all of the bodies in the Senate that we can get.

[Young Bard he/him]

2 hours ago, Eolhondras said:

@The Young Bard Bard, you had a very aggressive start, so much that it was a big topic of conversation for some time, yet you've been quiet for quite some time now, why the change? We've heard Elenion doesn't mind losing his place in the senate, how would you feel if you lost yours? (Also Australian buddies, yayayay!!)

I'm not sure how to comment on @Straw's actions, but definitely use that page man! even if you don't want to say much there, make sure to add people so that they can chat together. You don't have a confirmed good guy this cycle like you did last, but don't let that stop you adding someone you have a good feeling about.

Sorry, I've had stuff going on in real life that's prevented me from focusing on SE too much. Day 3, I'll do a full analysis of each player so everyone can see my thoughts on each player.

Well, by the looks of things, Senators are at risk of assassination at the moment, which is the only reason I can imagine killing Jaime for. So, I can't actually say I'm all that eager to be a Senator if it's a death trap.

By the way, I disagree strongly about that point you made. There's one doc. We need to make sure it's completely secure. Once it's been contaminated, the whole doc is worth nothing. Don't add someone unless you're certain.

One thing I am trying to work out if my senator theory is correct - what does it gain them? They must know that we'll just elect confirmed villagers, in this case Cloud, to replace them, so it shouldn't really make a difference. Either a) they didn't know who else to go for, being Night 1 (which I don't really think works, with Jaime having a 20% extra chance of being protected), or b ) they want Cloud to ascend to the Senate, because he's not really a villager. Which is only possible if Elbereth is also an Eliminator. Seeing as Elbereth tried to vote for Aman instead of Cloud for the scan, and has cast suspicion on Eramit for voting and reversing when precedent has her doing something else (although the lynch tomorrow could disprove this theory - unless some sort of unspoken alliance is forming between the two eliminator factions, which I dread to think). (Mind you, I'm not viewing option b as likely at the minute. Just as a possibility.)

That's the only really original thinking I've gone down this game, and there's about a 90% chance it's wrong.

Oh, and Orlok, I'll try not to post any new information in the doc that I haven't already made in the thread. It helps me scan through the Senate doc if I know the reasoning (I called it the ratio decidendii in my head... My Legal Studies teacher has taught me well.) I would prefer if other Senators did the same, but I won't insist upon it. Also, to help finding relative times, I'll probably put a timestamp when I post something there (In AEST, unfortunately, but I'll label it that to remind everyone...)

Oh, yes, Cloud. Despite my suspicions, you're still the closest to a villager we've got.

[Elenion he/him]

@The Young Bard I really doubt that El is Derethi, if only because she voted to scan Eramit first round, although she did retract later. It would have been all too easy for her to nominate someone else, and since I didn't see Eramit as that suspicious I probably went along with it. But what if Cloud and El were both Jeskeri? It would take some serious luck; I estimate only 4 or 5 players started as Jeskeri, and one of them's already dead. What a gamble that would have been, but a truly effective one it could have been.

[Young Bard he/him]

21 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@The Young Bard I really doubt that El is Derethi, if only because she voted to scan Eramit first round, although she did retract later. It would have been all too easy for her to nominate someone else, and since I didn't see Eramit as that suspicious I probably went along with it. But what if Cloud and El were both Jeskeri? It would take some serious luck; I estimate only 4 or 5 players started as Jeskeri, and one of them's already dead. What a gamble that would have been, but a truly effective one it could have been.

That's why I specifically referred to them as "Eliminators", because I wasn't certain which group would make more sense. The thing is, it's the Derethi that get the Night Kill, and it wouldn't advantage them to kill Jaime unless they thought a Derethi would replace them. One of the reasons my theory is wrong. It would require an alliance between the Derethi and Jeskeri, Night 2, with no PM's.

And it's basically pot luck who gets to discover the role/alignment. It wouldn't be a gamble, it would be an unfortunate incident with a lucky save at the end.

EDIT: It's also possible that Cloud is Derethi, while El is Jeskeri, and El decided not to bus cloud not because of a faction alliance, but because she was hoping there would be one.

Also, there is literally no difference in the power set/victory conditions of the Jeskeri and Village (except a Doc. Docs are always handy.) We've labelled one as a kind of 'second eliminator faction', but they could just as easily be seen as a 'second villager faction'. In which case, there could be just as many Jeskeri as Villagers, or only slightly fewer, to compensate for the doc.

Edited July 12, 2016 by The Young Bard
More rambling at 1am...

[Eolhondras he/him]

57 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

Well, by the looks of things, Senators are at risk of assassination at the moment, which is the only reason I can imagine killing Jaime for. So, I can't actually say I'm all that eager to be a Senator if it's a death trap.

By the way, I disagree strongly about that point you made. There's one doc. We need to make sure it's completely secure. Once it's been contaminated, the whole doc is worth nothing. Don't add someone unless you're certain.

If that's the case, why not request for yourself to be recalled? It would take you out of the crosshairs and the resulting bidding war to fill your seat could well be enlightening.

The fact is, it will never be completely secure, as we can never be certain. Your own paranoia of Cloud, even after he was scanned and found to be a villager, is proof of that. If the doc is not being used by anybody then we're just wasting a resource and treading water in a barrel, waiting to be shot. If Straw adds a villager, great. If he adds an eliminator, then Cloud has the opportunity to have a real time conversation with that person and make a more informed decision about their alignment. The more fronts on which the eliminators are forced to converse, the more likely they will be to slip up.

48 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

.Also, there is literally no difference in the power set/victory conditions of the Jeskeri and Village (except a Doc. Docs are always handy.) We've labelled one as a kind of 'second eliminator faction', but they could just as easily be seen as a 'second villager faction'. In which case, there could be just as many Jeskeri as Villagers, or only slightly fewer, to compensate for the doc.

Not quite true, the Jeskeri have a doc, but they also have a kill every even numbered night cycle. They are an eliminator faction, even if their win condition is a bit different.

 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Eolhondras, thoughts to come later - I'm on holiday, out during most of the day and no mobile internet. I can promise a post with substantiated thoughts on Aman in a few hours, once I'm back from supper.

[Elenion he/him]

2 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

That's why I specifically referred to them as "Eliminators", because I wasn't certain which group would make more sense. The thing is, it's the Derethi that get the Night Kill, and it wouldn't advantage them to kill Jaime unless they thought a Derethi would replace them. One of the reasons my theory is wrong. It would require an alliance between the Derethi and Jeskeri, Night 2, with no PM's.

The specifics of the rules make it very difficult for a faction alliance. Not only are there no PMs, but the Jeskeris' victory condition is tied to the demise of the Derethi. It's more likely that Cloud is legit, and they needed a person out of the senate pool. They wanted to kill Cloud but were pretty sure a Kesegan Monk was lurking around Cloud's place, so they opted for killing the lowest-profile senator they could, and Jaime was exactly that. Cloud gets elected, and once again we have no reserve person waiting for the senate. The more the Derethi disturb the Senate, the more we become paranoid about the Jeskeri being elected, and the more the Derethi get a free hand.

Here's a few more facts I deduced from Eramit's posts:

1.  Straw is not Derethi; Eramit was very suspicious of him last day cycle.
2. Ecthelion III is also not Derethi: he pushed for a scan of Eramit even before I did.

And, the biggest one of them all:

      3. Cloudjumper is not Derethi: he also pushed for a scan of Eramit.

Your reasoning sounds good except it puts suspicion on someone who told me (the only active Senator at the time) to put the scan on a Derethi Gyorn. So Jeskeri, maybe, but not Derethi.

@Eolhondras It's fine with me if we recall Bard, as long as we replace him with @Straw. Straw is clean for the reason above, combined with the vet from confirmed Cloud.

[Metacognition he/him]

Hey guys, just popping on real quick to let you know that I'm still alive. Today is my birthday though, so don't expect much from me. I need to catch up on last turn before I do anything else anyways! Sorry! 

[Guest]

Of course, cloudjumper.

And in my opinion, we should recall Elenion. I didn't like his actions yesterday, notably being quick to hop on two bandwagons, and threaten Straw with death if Straw did not fully explain his actions (which, I should note, were identical to those of Elenion's). This is probably a bus.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Happy birthday to you!

Happy birthday to you!

Happy birthday to Meta!

Happy birthday to you!

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Aeleus arrived at his house in the late afternoon. He closed and locked the door behind him and made sure the curtains were closed, then removed a knife from his cloak. Jaena's knife. He had taken it from her body before all of the commotion.

He examined the knife more closely. The edge was coated in blood. Derethi blood. Aeleus smiled; Jaena had put up a fight. He removed his bone stamps from the closet and began the task of harvesting the blood from the knife...

[Elenion he/him]

Double post, @Ecthelion III? For shame! 

 

If today is "A New Threat", let tomorrow be known as "The Voters Strike Back"!

Edited July 12, 2016 by Elenion

[Amanuensis he/him]

Since it usually takes me a while to write my average post compared to other people, I'm just going to say some essential things quick, then go back and thoroughly analyze what I've missed.

First of all, on the subject of Jaime being killed so cloud could get elected. I don't think it's because cloud is Derethi, but it was a smart plan, in a way,for the Derethi's. I can't remember which turn it was, but I remember cloud suggesting getting a Duelist and Kesegan Monk on the Senate so that they can just protect each other to ensure a village win. I don't believe the Kesegan Monk can self target but for sure the Duelist can, so by having cloud elected, the Derethi have encouraged cloud to protect himself from here on out, rather than any of the other current or future Senators. Granted, whether or not cloud decides to do that is up to him, but it does at least narrow the range of players he can protect if kept alive. That being said, @cloudjumper, since you are being protected by the election tonight, make sure you use your power on which of the senators you believe is most likely to be attacked. I'm going to formally request that you don't bother using it on me, however. Since returning to my primary detachment I haven't had as much time as usual to participate in these games, and am unsure how soon I might get more room to breathe. I will dedicate what free time I do have to finding the eliminators, but I would not be opposed to the eliminators killing me tonight, if they believe that the most strategic option.

I thought there was something else I wanted to comment on but I can't remember right now. Just going to post this now so that it can encourage the appropriate orders to be placed if they haven't been placed already. Will go read through everything I've missed now.

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Since it usually takes me a while to write my average post compared to other people, I'm just going to say some essential things quick, then go back and thoroughly analyze what I've missed.

First of all, on the subject of Jaime being killed so cloud could get elected. I don't think it's because cloud is Derethi, but it was a smart plan, in a way,for the Derethi's. I can't remember which turn it was, but I remember cloud suggesting getting a Duelist and Kesegan Monk on the Senate so that they can just protect each other to ensure a village win. I don't believe the Kesegan Monk can self target but for sure the Duelist can, so by having cloud elected, the Derethi have encouraged cloud to protect himself from here on out, rather than any of the other current or future Senators. Granted, whether or not cloud decides to do that is up to him, but it does at least narrow the range of players he can protect if kept alive. That being said, @cloudjumper, since you are being protected by the election tonight, make sure you use your power on which of the senators you believe is most likely to be attacked. I'm going to formally request that you don't bother using it on me, however. Since returning to my primary detachment I haven't had as much time as usual to participate in these games, and am unsure how soon I might get more room to breathe. I will dedicate what free time I do have to finding the eliminators, but I would not be opposed to the eliminators killing me tonight, if they believe that the most strategic option.

I thought there was something else I wanted to comment on but I can't remember right now. Just going to post this now so that it can encourage the appropriate orders to be placed if they haven't been placed already. Will go read through everything I've missed now.

1. Aman, I just learned that your username is an actual word. Nice choice.

2. @cloudjumper, do what he says and protect one of us. Since Aman doesn't want help, that leaves Bard, El, and I. Use your best judgment.

3. All: remember to vote for Cloud tonight and Eramit tomorrow. If you don't I'm more than happy to serve up investigation votes on you. Kolo? 

4. For all you Merchants out there, now might be a good night for a business trip. Kolo?

(Anyone else notice that very few people, if any, are using kolo anymore?)

Edited July 13, 2016 by Elenion