Long Game 22: Corenne al'Daishar

[Master Elodin]

I'm talking about why they wouldn't have detained me if I was on their team- they would've known that I couldn't be targeted.

EDIT: Really, Elb? You're going to say that names like "Bloodthirsy Goddess" or "True Divinity" don't instill fear or at least awe?

Edited June 6, 2016 by Master Elodin

[Nyali]

Please keep in mind that when I say I don't think Ba'Alzamon attempted to perform the eliminator kill last night, I'm not saying I don't think he's an eliminator. I'm not saying anything about his alignment there. I just think that, if he was an eliminator, he'd be a terrible choice given the suspicion against him.

[Bugsy]

I had misunderstood something, but now that it's cleared up, I know for absolute certain one person whose action failed last night - Ruon (Young Bard). Sure, it could have been Gladium (Straw) who also claims to have failed an action, but I really don't think so. Gladium (Straw) picking Ba'alzamon (Elodin) makes total sense given how everyone was suspecting him. Ruon didn't target Ba'alazmon, but his action still failed. That [edit: meaning, my additional information] says nothing about Ba'alzamon, but it does say something about Ruon. And yes, it could have been someone else whose action failed, [edit: including Ba'alzamon himself] but I don't think that many people had actions that failed that didn't involve targeting Ba'alzamon, and I don't think eliminators would voluntarily pick the town's top suspect to kill. [edit: And I don't think the eliminator team would be silly enough to have the town's top suspect perform the eliminator faction kill.]

 

So, Ruon (Bard). (and Ba'alzamon (Elodin))

 

[edit: * - or after, if you decide to kill me first, but hopefully, and if I'm right about Ruon, my alignment reveal on death will lead to Ruon going down shortly afterward.]

Multiple people can have failed actions, and I'm not sure how your redirect shows anything about Ruon... Care to clarify, Eyrn?

 

Edit: Oooh, just got it. I'm not thinking straight for some reason. My bad 

Also edited to remove vote

 

Edit 2: Just to clarify, I (for some reason) interpreted this as saying Ruon was inherently suspicious because his action failed along with Elodin's and Straw's. I didn't get the larger context about how that would explain the lack of an Elim kill last cycle. Please excuse my overtired brain

Edited June 6, 2016 by Bugsy6912

[Elbereth]

I'm talking about why they wouldn't have detained me if I was on their team- they would've known that I couldn't be targeted.

Ah, got it.

Please keep in mind that when I say I don't think Ba'Alzamon attempted to perform the eliminator kill last night, I'm not saying I don't think he's an eliminator. I'm not saying anything about his alignment there. I just think that, if he was an eliminator, he'd be a terrible choice given the suspicion against him.

Hmm. True. Although in some ways he'd be the best choice, because even if he was caught killing someone by the Thief-Taker, he's already suspected, rather than giving up a member of their team who wasn't suspect at all before then. Depends on how likely they thought he was to be targeted by a Spirit weave (because obviously detainment is chosen during the day when he hadn't accrued nearly as much suspicion).

[Gamma Fiend]

Some updates/clarifications! Sorry, been trying to keep up on everything and figure out half of the role interactions on the fly and then half of it is me just trying to jump the gun and get any extra clarifications out there before they come up! XD

But, that said....

 

 

Gamma, if there was a Whitecloak Darkfriend and they used their Detainment Action during the Day, would that player be able to send in the Darkfriend kill during that following Night? Or does the fact that they used an Action during that Cycle's Day Turn stop them from being able to send in a Night Turn Action for that Cycle?

While the Whitecloak is submitted during the day, it's basically a night action, so they couldn't be the one making the kill while detaining.

Also, the Ta'veren would be told if their action failed, for whatever reason, but not why.Same with any other role. Players are told if they are detained, nobody else would be.

 

If a player is killed by both the wolfkill and Darkfriend kill, it would show as much in the write-up (despite being overkill )

 

Any others? Just try bolding them or reposting any questions i might have missed. Apologies for any confusion. >.> 

 

There'd be no indication of a warder just dying right out, or them sacrificing themselves or not. Also, the events of the write-up itself don't reflect anything, it's just fanciful story telling.

And if a kill were to happen and was unsuccessful, it wouldn't be mentioned in the write-up at all. Only protected kills.
 

Edited June 7, 2016 by Gamma Fiend

[TheMightyLopen]

I claimed to have successfully redirected Ruon to Ba'Alzamon. Ba'Alzamon and Gladium both claim that Ba'Alzamon was detained. Therefore, unless they are both lying, Ruon's action failed.

 

Oh, I see now. Okay, that makes sense. It's possible that Bard is a Whitecloak and you redirected him to Elodin right? I'm still of the opinion that Elodin is probably evil and Bard isn't, although I need to go back and read through why I was thinking Bard wasn't evil.

 

I don't actually remember being suggested as a scanee. Killee, yes, but not scanee.

EDIT: This was pretty much implied in the beginning of this thread- I was under suspicion, but no one that I know of suggested to scan me. Unless you have a PM with Straw. That would explain it.

 

...Right. Just looked back and I did only suggest you as a killee. I remember I was going to suggest scanning you, but then I suggested killing you instead, so I thought it would be a bad idea if our scanner scanned someone who was killed by Wolves. Of course, then Straw decided to scan you anyways.

 

Thanks for the clarifications Gamma.

[Elbereth]

EDIT: Really, Elb? You're going to say that names like "Bloodthirsy Goddess" or "True Divinity" don't instill fear or at least awe?

Neither of those terms have been used in this game at all. Not even sure where "true divinity" is coming from.

And Gamma, I asked a couple of questions here and here.

[Nyali]

Multiple people can have failed actions, and I'm not sure how your redirect shows anything about Ruon... Care to clarify, Eyrn?

Edit: Oooh, just got it. I'm not thinking straight for some reason. My bad

Also edited to remove vote

Yes, I'm aware that multiple people could have failed actions, but two suspicious people are known to have failed actions (assuming you trust the people making claims, which I clearly do).

If you assume only a handful of people failed and one of them was an eliminator because no attempted kill (we'd know if someone was attacked and protected from the write-up), then the chances of one person who we know failed of being an eliminator should be far higher than an arbitrary person chosen from the full population.

Plus, Ruon was already on my suspicion list.

Edit: Oh, and White Cloaks can't be redirected. That was the clarification I talked about earlier - I had first thought I redirected the detaining, but I was told that can't be done.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Nyali

[Dustbringer12]

 

...Um, okay.   Do you have any suspicions or thoughts on the game? That's really what I want to hear. Defenses are okay, but I much prefer when players add their thoughts as to who the eliminators might be, since that will fuel discussion more, IMO. So if you add some thoughts about who to lynch or who not to lynch, I'll think about removing my vote. Sound fair?

Well, I feel like on an average, about 80% of the people who have posted today have suspicions of Elodin or Gunshy.  I definitely agree that there is some substance to this.  I also feel like there are other people who look suspicious.  However, I do not suspect them the most. Right now, my top suspicion is Nyali.  I use the point system from 1 to 100 with 1 as eliminator and 100 as townsperson, but I change the values at a much smaller rate because I don't think most things are sufficient enough to raise or lower a person's score that much.  She is at the bottom of my list (greatest to least), but I will wait to vote on her for a while, or until more data is collected.  A close second with Bard, which because Nyali is voting for him brings her score up by a little bit- but it could just be a troll. not likely with how all out she is going on it though.  I will not be posting my scoring though, because I don't want the darkfriends/corrupted to try and take suspicion off of themself.

 

Edit: sorry for the delayed response. I had stuff I needed to do.

Second edit: after going through and reading posts, I put Bard at the top because Nyali is just barely less suspicious by my standards.

Edited June 7, 2016 by RubiksCube

[Elbereth]

Okay, that's good to know. But why is your top suspicion Nyali? That's the important bit you're missing. If you don't provide reasoning there's nothing to defend against and no basis for discussion. So why do you suspect her?

[Bugsy]

Yes, I'm aware that multiple people could have failed actions, but two suspicious people are known to have failed actions (assuming you trust the people making claims, which I clearly do).

If you assume only a handful of people failed and one of them was an eliminator because no attempted kill (we'd know if someone was attacked and protected from the write-up), then the chances of one person who we know failed of being an eliminator should be far higher than an arbitrary person chosen from the full population.

Plus, Ruon was already on my suspicion list.

Yeah, that was my bad. I wasn't following what you had said at first, I thought you were saying he was an Elim because his action failed as did Straw's, and only one could fail, meaning the other (Ruon) had to be lying. I have no idea how I interpreted it as that, but it sounded just as crazy in my head, which is why I called you out on it. Then, seeing the other replies, I realized I had hugely misinterpreted it. I'm of the opinion your analysis is good, but warrants further discussion. I'll remove my mayoral vote for now, but I don't trust myself to be part of the lynch until I get a few hours of sleep

 

ETA: Oh, by the way, Gunshy has kinda sorta fixed his computer. It wasn't charging correctly, but he mentioned to me that he could get a trickle of power now if he aligned the cord just right. Not sure why he hasn't posted, since that was about 5 hours ago. Might be broken again, or he may be hiding, per say, behind technical troubles

Edited June 7, 2016 by Bugsy6912

[Dustbringer12]

Okay, that's good to know. But why is your top suspicion Nyali? That's the important bit you're missing. If you don't provide reasoning there's nothing to defend against and no basis for discussion. So why do you suspect her?

Ok.  so mostly, it is just a couple of things with the posts she has made that have added up, like the thing with roleclaiming and Ruon/Bard.  That would only doc her a 1-2 points on the scale.  I can compile a list but it will take some time.  also, I am using a Logos approach on deciding who is more suspicious, instead of Pathos or  Ethos. (in case you are wondering, those are the three types of arguments, logos being logic/logical, ethos being ethics, and pathos being more the tone and the feeling.)

 

edit: I am working on the list now.  Also, for the ending part,  from my perspective, most people are using an ethos or pathos approach.

Edited June 7, 2016 by RubiksCube

[Elbereth]

Heh. I believe you share that approach with Nyali, actually.

You don't have to make a list if you really don't want to, of course. But- well, say the thing you did mention, her claiming. Why does that make you suspicious?

[TheMightyLopen]

Hmmm. I'm actually thinking that Nyali's is the more likely story - that Bard sent in the Darkfriend kill rather than Elodin, if there was one. Why? Because Elodin is claiming Dreamwalker, so, if that's true and he was under so much heat last Night, I think he'd be strongly advised to protect himself with that, rather than sending in the Darkfriend kill, which, as Nyali pointed out, could conceivably be roleblocked/redirected because of how much suspicion was on him. So if we're gonna lynch because of the lack of an eliminator kill, I think Bard is the more suspicious player at the moment. He tied the lynch between Sheep and Sart(edit: he voted on Sheep to tie it). I didn't hold that against him before, because I just didn't get the feeling he was an eliminator when I read back over it, but my gut can't be trusted sometimes and I would like to hear from Bard about all of this.

 

And thanks for clarifying that Whitecloak targets can't be redirected Nyali.

 

Rubik, I look forward to your list then! Why are you gonna wait to vote though? I suggest voting as early as possible, because, IMO, that's what generates discussion best. You don't have to be certain about your suspicions to vote, otherwise hardly anyone would ever vote and nothing would get done!

Edited June 8, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Hellscythe]

Yes, I'm aware that multiple people could have failed actions, but two suspicious people are known to have failed actions (assuming you trust the people making claims, which I clearly do).

If you assume only a handful of people failed and one of them was an eliminator because no attempted kill (we'd know if someone was attacked and protected from the write-up), then the chances of one person who we know failed of being an eliminator should be far higher than an arbitrary person chosen from the full population.

Plus, Ruon was already on my suspicion list.

Edit: Oh, and White Cloaks can't be redirected. That was the clarification I talked about earlier - I had first thought I redirected the detaining, but I was told that can't be done.

Nyali there's so many other instances where the eliminator kill could've not gone through. I don't think it was a good idea to claim just to lynch one possibility. 

We don't even know how many channelers are out there.

The Whitecloaked person could've attempted the eliminator kill themselves.

Anyone targeting or redirected to the Whitecloaked person could've made the kill.

The eliminators could've just made no kill at all, which nobody is considering.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Hellscythe

[Nyali]

So you're basically claiming Ta'veren?

Yes. I'm so many people's top or second to top suspicion for some reason (people keep claiming gut) and I accidentally said enough that you could deduce I was a Ta'veren, so I figured why not play with an open hand? Sure, it makes me a corruption target, but I figure I'm not likely to live long anyway. This way, if I do get converted before you kill me anyway, at least it'll get a Corrupted killed...

[Master Elodin]

Neither of those terms have been used in this game at all. Not even sure where "true divinity" is coming from.

And Gamma, I asked a couple of questions here and here.

Sigs and titles. Also I assume that Gunshy has read Wilsons sig, and looked through some old games. Those make it evident that both Wilson and Meta are scary players. Edited June 7, 2016 by Master Elodin

[AliasSheep]

Now that Sart is dead and Lopen kind of dispelled most of my suspicions (I'm now unsure on him instead of suspicious), my main suspect is Elodin. I'm not gonna put a vote on now, I'd much prefer to do that tomorrow after more discussion as occurred, but it's likely that my vote will be for him when I do vote.

My suspicions are a continuation of the same from yesterday, noting things such as him quickly agreeing with me and changing votes often and quick. I should probably go through and mark specific things, but I'll do that tomorrow, it's too late right now.

Another thing I noticed is that he tried to discourage discussion over the corrupted despite no discussion about the corrupted occuring. However, if he was detained, then he can't be Fain, so I'm not sure if that tells anything useful.

I didn't really notice anything relating to Gunshy, so I'm going to read through tomorrow and find posts they made, after which I'll put out my opinion on the matter.

Now goodnight (mostly)!

[Elbereth]

Nyali there's so many other instances where the eliminator kill could've not gone through. I don't think it was a good idea to claim just to lynch one possibility.

We don't even know how many channelers are out there.

The Whitecloaked person could've attempted the eliminator kill themselves.

Anyone targeting or redirected to the Whitecloaked person could've made the kill.

The eliminators could've just made no kill at all, which nobody is considering.

What does how many channelers are out there have anything to do it?

We've discussed Elodin making the eliminator kill, and agreed it's a bit less likely since he's so high in suspicion right now.

Do you really think the eliminators would target Elodin with their kill? That'd be a terrible idea. And how many Ta'veren do you really think there are? And how likely is it that multiple Ta'veren redirected someone onto Elodin?

And yes, I did consider them making no kill at all (EDIT: here). And I think it's much less likely since they're not in a comfortable enough position not to be killing given that they just lost their Forsaken Day 1.

So... none of those alternate options are really valid, in my opinion.

Sigs and titles. Also I assume that Gunshy has read Wilsons sig, and looked through some old games. Those make it evident that both Wilson and Meta are scary players.

Yes, but where? Point me to one sig/title that contains either of those phrases. The closest I've found is Wilson being "Brightness Ascendant". Which doesn't exactly convey the same thing. The quotes in her sig are better, but even so I don't think they're quite enough to describe her/Meta as "setting people on edge". EDIT: And reading past games is possible, but definitely not something you should assume. (Plus, neither of them have even played much in recent games, so I'm not sure that you would automatically get the idea that they're scary from reading a past game.)

Anyway. I think it's better at this point to wait until Gunshy shows up and explains him(?)self.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[Nyali]

Nyali there's so many other instances where the eliminator kill could've not gone through. I don't think it was a good idea to claim just to lynch one possibility.

We don't even know how many channelers are out there.

The Whitecloaked person could've attempted the eliminator kill themselves.

Anyone targeting or redirected to the Whitecloaked person could've made the kill.

The eliminators could've just made no kill at all, which nobody is considering.

I agree. See my prior post (the one after yours) - but, if I'm going to be killed soon with all this suspicion on me and two town vigs who are willing to kill night one (*shudder* - on the forum I used to play on, vigs were considered so strong and making games so swingy that it was regulated to at most one town vig per game regardless of size with a single kill attempt only. This is very different!), I might as well get the most mileage out of what info I have.

[Hellscythe]

What does how many channelers are out there have anything to do it?

We've discussed Elodin making the eliminator kill, and agreed it's a bit less likely since he's so high in suspicion right now.

Do you really think the eliminators would target Elodin with their kill? That'd be a terrible idea. And how many Ta'veren do you really think there are? And how likely is it that multiple Ta'veren redirected someone onto Elodin?

And yes, I did consider them making no kill at all. And I think it's much less likely since they're not in a comfortable enough position not to be killing given that they just lost their Forsaken Day 1.

So... none of those alternate options are really valid, in my opinion.

Channelers have two different types of role blocks? And if there are 5 channelers any one of their role blocks could've been the successful block on the eliminators as well.

NOW Elodin has suspicion on him. That has nothing to do with last night and him deciding whether he'd make the kill or not.

I honestly don't know if they'd target Elodin. I don't know who is on the team. I wouldn't but I'm not an eliminator so I don't get a vote.

I don't see why it's not a valid option. They've gotten so much information, claiming and distrust out of it I think they've made a great play if that's really what happened.

[TheMightyLopen]

Another thing I noticed is that he tried to discourage discussion over the corrupted despite no discussion about the corrupted occuring. However, if he was detained, then he can't be Fain, so I'm not sure if that tells anything useful.

 

Good point, I hadn't thought about that! We also know that Bard can't be Fain either because of this. Of course, it appears likely we're gonna lynch one of them regardless, but that is an interesting point.

 

I would like to emphasize caution about roleclaiming in the thread people. So far we've already had like, 3 or 4? Plus it feels like the direction we're going is asking for more roleclaims to happen, so I felt like pointing it out. Even if you don't have an important role, you claiming allows the Darkfriends and Fain to narrow down who does have the important roles.

[Nyali]

It's still against Fair Play rules to copy & paste from PMs, regardless of what has happened.

 

Edited by Gamma Fiend.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Gamma Fiend

[Dustbringer12]

 

Rubik, I look forward to your list then! Why are you gonna wait to vote though? I suggest voting as early as possible, because, IMO, that's what generates discussion best. You don't have to be certain about your suspicions to vote, otherwise hardly anyone would ever vote and nothing would get done!

I am waiting because I have insufficient data.  In day one, I made several allegations against people who are probably innocent, and I would not like to repeat that mistake.  Nyali just happened to come out at the top while ranking players (though now, as noted, she is second behind bard) and both of them are at the bottom for a bunch of little things.  I don't think I can really accuse either of them being honest with myself.

 

Edit: fixing a phrasing that could be interpreted wrong

Edited June 7, 2016 by RubiksCube

[Hellscythe]

Sent to me just now:

Edited by Gamma

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by Gamma Fiend