Mid-Range Game 9: The Steel Ministry

[Creccio he/him]

I do not account for the coinshots because it could tip the scale either way. if they kill a Skaa...GREAT if not... one of us dies, i just assumed everyone to NOT have one of those, calculating probabilities with coinshots would be a bit trickier but i can do the math later if it is in everyone's interest

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

The problem with having plans without pm's is that I can't explain the full plan without ruining it. Just suffice to know that I see your concerns, and have ways to deal with them, but I need a lurcher for it.

[Clanky he/him]

How are you going to explain this plan of yours to a lurcher without PMs?

 

Most of my concerns have nothing to do with your end of the plan but with the part of the plan that includes everyone else. How many vials of metal are worth wasting for us to give your plan a try? What are the lurchers supposed to do when they can't even tell if you learned about them? Do they just wait and hope that your plan becomes apparent to them over time? Even then if they do discover your plan you may still get all the lurchers following through since they don't know if you know about them or not. How can you ever confirm that the player you found out about is actually a lurcher short of death?

 

 

EDIT: I would like to hear some other peoples opinions about this so that it isn't just me and Joe arguing. The point of plans like this is to get discussion going for everyone. So what are everyone else's opinions on this?

Edited October 19, 2015 by Clanky

[STINK he/him]

You are all overlooking something, Soothing.

 

The Eliminators most likely have some form of emotional allomancy after all.

Edited October 19, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Clanky he/him]

Good point STINK. Joe, now that you have revealed what you plan to do any Skaa with brass can just sooth you so that you learn nothing and all the Iron will be wasted. Also now if the Skaa ever do want to target you with something they can combine it with brass to ensure they aren't found out. 

 

So is the plan you were thinking of just to get a Lurcher to target you who you knew their name and try and draw a Skaa kill so that you can hopefully identify your attacker? I can't think of anything else that involves just you and a lurcher

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Hm, a pretty good amount of discussion so far! Hopefully we keep it like that. In MR8(I think), we had a lot of discussion day 1 and then after just a couple cycles, the game went very quiet. While it's good that there's been this amount of discussion, we have to keep it that way. Especially since there are no PM's.

 

As far as Day 1 lynches go, I'm always conflicted. I think I agree that we should have a lynch, but I just don't know how we pick a target. There's so little to go off of. I don't want a completely random lynch, as that's unfair to that person.

 

@Clanky, I don't know about the skaa having a Coinshot. Since there are no PM's in this game, I think the Skaa already have a pretty large advantage. I'm guessing that Gamma would counter that somehow, and adding a Coinshot to the Skaa ranks would just give them an even bigger advantage. I do think there might be two Coinshots given that they have limited uses, but I think it would be plausible for TG to have gotten both of them to balance the game a little.

 

If the Skaa do have a Coinshot, I would guess that Gamma counteracted that by making the Skaa team small. With 26 players, I would say that 5 or 6 is most likely. But if they have a Coinshot, I wouldn't be surprised if there were only 4. Granted, in the past I haven't been too accurate with my role analysis, so I'm not confident that would be the case.

 

I do think I agree with you about not using the village kill roles this early, with the limited uses. The only problem is that if the Skaa get lucky and kill one of them, then we're down a kill role, which wouldn't be crippling or anything, but still not good. I guess that's always a possibility though, so I would push for the Coinshots to be conservative with their kills. We don't want to do the Eliminators job for them.

I say wait until we have a little more information to go off of.

 

Now, about Joe's plan. Clanky and STINK bring up good points. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I fail to see how it would benefit the village at all.

 

I'm gonna hold off on voting at the moment since I don't have any suspicions, and everyone has been pretty active so I don't really see anyone that merits a poke vote either.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Don't worry. I know what I'm doing and will explain in full once cycle 2 arrives.

[Guest]

Kipper, are we going to be at each others' throats again? . You say I call people out for not discussion, and that it would not provoke discussion, but what is this if not a discussion? I voted for Venture Mistborn because he said that he would wait for people to say things, which is basically a pointless post, and ignores the fact that discussion has to start somewhere. I wanted to draw him out and provoke discussion from him. What else could make him say something than someone accusing him, after all?

 

What this has told me is two things: Firstly, you're willing to vote for someone despite not advocating first day lynches (I admit, there may be good reason for that, though I find it interesting), and secondly, you jumped to Venture Mistborn's defence. It might mean nothing, this is true, but evidence like this is what is required if we are to get anywhere.

Maybe. I'd be happy to be at your throat if you turn out to be a threat to the village, and we all know it, but we don't lynch you...

 

Yeah, uh, true story, my post did not come out how I intended to write it. I don't how it got lost. The whole post was basically a joke, pointing out that I could vote for Wyrm using the same reasons as he voted for Venture. I got a little hot-headed, though, and used the word "discussion" too many times, thus muddying up my post. Truly a joke. So, Wyrm. I was always planning to retract; I do not like D1 lynches. Also, there was a more meta-joke about how I have a tendency to attack Wyrm, yes. Glad you caught that.

 

Firstly, I'm willing to vote for someone, yes, but I always retract D1, to the best of my memory. And I often don't vote at all.

Secondly, no defense of Venture Mistborn should be inferred from my post. Critique of you, yes, defense of the accused, no.

 

I'll see if I can post some more later, but I have an important calc test tomorrow, and I really shouldn't spend too much time on this rabbit-hole...

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm willing to give Joe his shot. But only for one cycle. I say the Lurcher(s) follow his plan today and we see what he comes back to us with. At that point, we can decide what to do.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm not completely sure what I'm doing, but I'm trusting Joe enough to give him one cycle to prove himself. He did very well in the QF, and impressed me there. I'm giving him a shot, though of course, I can't have the Lurchers actually follow through.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

What? No, I want the plan to go through, I just have no means of insuring it. I'm just encouraging the Lurcher(s) to follow it.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Sorry about that. Glad we cleared it up.

[Clanky he/him]

Even if the lurchers follow through we still face the problem of a Skaa blocking Joes Tin with Brass. How do you suppose we deal with that?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

if that happens we'll still get info. Less than I wanted to get, but still some. And I only want one cycle to prove myself. After this cycle the lurchers can do what they want. (I mean, they already can do what they want, I'm just asking for one to protect me.)

[polkinghornbd he/him]

I don't think day one lynches are a good idea either.  I do think that the math just isn't in our favor.  Anyway, I don't see anything too suspicious so far, so I will not vote right now.  I think Joe's plan would not work, and might be a skaa tactic, but I don't see it in him.  He is acting in just the way he did last game; getting right into the middle of something controversial going on. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Exactly, Winter. He just seems genuine to me. If his plan doesn't work, you can lynch me as well as him. I'm willing to throw in with him right now.

[Clanky he/him]

Exactly, Winter. He just seems genuine to me. If his plan doesn't work, you can lynch me as well as him. I'm willing to throw in with him right now.

 

Well I wouldn't go as far as to say we should lynch him if his plan doesn't work out, however if his plan was something that was obviously never going to work in the first place then sure lynch him(and you I suppose  ​). I am just worried that people aren't putting enough value on our lurchers limited metal supply. 

[RippleGylf she/her]

The thing with lurchers is I feel that none of them will really have anyone they want to protect, unless they're a skaa. SE games are basically paranoia fests, as far as trusting other players goes. Why should a lurcher waste a use on Joe?

[Clanky he/him]

They are not actually doing this to protect him but so that he can enact a plan that he needs the identity of a lurcher for. However I was thinking more about this plan and remembered that he said this when first proposing it:

I'm going to try something new: Honesty. I'm a tineye. I will be burning tonight, and would appreciate it if a lurcher would target me. That gives me a list of people to defend if they're up for a lynch. Are there problems with this plan? Yes. But it's better than just depending on votes.

And mailliw which PM was it in?

 

Was this all you had planed originally Joe or were you just hoping people would agree to your idea without you having to say you had an overarching plan?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Am I not special enough to warrant protection?

How does one use emoji's on Mobile? I want to do the huge grin emoji after the above sentence.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Here's my plan:

1. Announce plan

2. Generate enough discussion about plan that people will act on it.

3. Receive name.

4-7. <REDACTED>

That was not all I had planned originally. That was one benefit, but there are more.

[Clanky he/him]

Ah so it's a seven step plan. I know exactly what you are trying to do now! 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Huh. Where did the dash come from? That was meant to be step 47. :-P

Edited October 20, 2015 by The Only Joe

[RippleGylf she/her]

Ah. That makes sense then, in a sort of convoluted way. Question: Can lurchers protect against skaa kills?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I assume they do. Otherwise they seem kinda pointless.

 

 

Edit: Vote tally

 

Venture(1): Wyrm

Meandbooks(1): Sart

Wyrm(1): Kipper{1}, Orlok

Sart(1): Joe

Orlok(0): Adavantos{1}

Alfa(1): Adavantos{2}

Alvron(1): Mailliw

Lopen(1): Araris

Phattemer(1): Alfa

Edited October 20, 2015 by TheMightyLopen