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"... and the other gods started calling me Brightwater.  I swear Dream God King MiriKas had it out for me.  Or his High Priest.  That guy never forgave me for swiping his hat during that meeting last year."  Brightwhisper the Keen said as he finished off his bacon, a mischievous glimmer in his eye.

 

"Anyway, as soon as the announcement was made the other gods all started accusing each other without even bothering to look for evidence.  But then what more could you expect from those who are suddenly forced to contemplate their own mortality."

 

 

I'm going to hold off on my vote for now.

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Raven

There are many different ways to analyze lynch votes. One of the most common is to look back at an Eliminator's votes after s/he dies, and study the reasoning behind the votes, with the benefit of our new information. Was the Eliminator throwing a compatriot under the bus, with shoddy reasoning? Was the Eliminator just bandwagoning on someone else? Who did the Eliminator defend? Why? And so on and so forth.

Another way to analyze is in this case. As it stands right now, Lynchtarget will be lynched. If she is an Eliminator, the other Eliminators have two options. Let her be lynched or start a bandwagon on another player. So we can get information from putting a death mark on someone.

Anyway, to get real information and data to analyze, there has to be a very real threat. This poke voting is great and all, but the players who are being voted know that all they have to do is pop in and post once, and bam, the vote goes away. Kasimir had a great post about this in a recent game (which I will try to find), and the essence of it was: For a lynch discussion to be meaningful, someone actually has to be under threat of death. Otherwise, who cares?

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Bah, should have figured this game wouldn't have been so simple. XD The Breath mechanic is an odd one to try and fit onto the stack, as either decision I don't want to give any side a clear advantage. Breath before lynch = wasted lynches. Breath after lynch = wasted mechanic. 

 

I'm just going to say it all happens at the same time, the lynch and the kills. Whoever is being lynched CAN give up their breath to save another player, as they still need to make a guess on who to save. This might slow things down a bit, or make it trickier as the game gets narrowed down, but I think that's the most fair heading forward, and fits the most flavor-wise. >.> I will gauge reactions when I'm back from work, and make any corrections if necessary. You have a little over 9 hours left in the cycle!

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So we can infer that the lynch does not get handed off to the second highest votes if the lynch target uses their breath. Which makes sense story-wise as well as mechanically, so I'm fine with that on an unnecessary front as well. =)

While I like the idea of using serious threat of death to inspire useful conversation, the 24 hour quick fix format is going to make it hard for much back-and-forth to take place before the day ends. Which is mostly to say that it is probably too late to use this tactic on this cycle, but if we launch those debates at the start of the next cycle, we may get something for it. The trouble is putting the threat in fast enough to allow for a good debate.

I would like to know, Kipper (and others), does that plan work better with or without leaving a vote retraction window? If people feel the target is going to die no matter what is said, will anyone say anything useful? This is to say, if we aren't available to post several times a cycle, the functionality may be hampered.

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At the moment, I'm thinking that Meta's plan has merit, even though I'm not completely sold on it yet. Just off the top of my head, the biggest worry about the plan would be ensuring that the lynched target is chosen enough in advance to allow them to send a pm about sacrificing themselves, and giving any previous target a chance to back out. Otherwise, we'd either have multiple people sacrificing themselves, or we'd have a target who doesn't follow the plan due to being chosen at the last minute. 

 

That being said, I'm going to jump on the bandwagon of the minute and vote Lynchtarget the Innocent. She still hasn't shown up to post yet, and at this time, I'm not seeing any better option. I don't know if Kipper's plan is the best idea,, but it's the only one so far that focuses on the lynch discussion itself, and not the outcome of the lynch

 

I don't think I'm going to be able to post again until after this cycle is over. Unfortunately, it's looking like I'm going to miss the last 6 hours or so of every lynch due to my sleeping habits. If any lynch goes a completely different way right before the end, just be aware that I probably can't change my answer because of this.

Edited by RavenRadient7
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I am in a similar position to RavenRadiant, as I live in the US and we sleep at normal times here. ;)

 

I might be on before the lynch, but I'm not certain.

I'm gonna retract my vote from Shar, as I don't really know what I'm doing yet.

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I always find it a bit creepy how you know my log-in times, Wyrm. As it is, I haven't been online at all lately, and I just so happen to be able to talk today, thanks to a high fever that somehow isn't making me nauseous. 

 

Um... Looks like my RNG came up with Meta again, but I'm not voting.

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Jain, you need to get a different RNG, as that one seems to hate me! :P

 

So I feel a bit vindicated. Now the question is, were SharkBait and RedCross really confused or were they trying to put a stop to a plan that is likely to make things a bit more difficult for the Rebels? I'll be sticking with my vote for SharkBait, even though he retracted from me. I still think his reasoning was a bit flimsy to vote for me in the first place. His entire argument hinged on the fact that I was wrong and thus suspicious for it, because I didn't check on the validity of my plan with Gamma ahead of time, while he was voting for me before we got a result from Gamma as well.

 

It might be a bit arrogant to say, but I think that the idea of a plan to use the Breaths in an effective way likely scared the Rebels into acting out a bit too quickly. The plan still has plenty of flaws after all.

 

-As Ri pointed out, it requires us to have something of a consensus early enough for the person being voted for to put in the order for their breath. That's difficult enough to get in a LG. In a QF? Even harder. That said, I never expected my plan to be perfect. It should be used if you are getting lynched; like how it looks like LynchTarget is going to be (I have no problems with this lynch btw. If you're not talking and discussing in here, you're not helping, IMO. I'd rather kill someone who isn't being active to thoroughly drive the point home to everyone that we mean business when it comes to needing people to be actually doing something here). In this kind of scenario, LynchTarget should willingly give up her Breath to possibly protect someone else so that we'll at least have someone that we can trust. 

-That possibly in the last sentence is important. There's no guarantee that the person the lynched player targets is the one who gets attacked (though if you're looking for targets, Shallan, I feel pretty confident that I'm a dead man walking for all of this! :P ). It's just the closest thing we have to even possibly protecting someone.

-It makes it possible, if the votes do switch late, that we lose more people faster. Like above, if we're not consistent, it could cause us to lose someone to the lynch, someone to the Rebel kill, and someone to their sacrificed Breath if the lynch votes change near the end of the cycle. This is obviously a worst case scenario though. Even in this scenario though, there are benefits. If we go to lynch someone and then the vote changes, if both people get in their Divine Breath order, then we double our chances of possibly blocking the Rebel's kill. And blocking the Rebel's kill is the only way we have of confirming anyone as likely 80% good (there are options for them to target one of their own, but they'd have to feel really confident that their target was going to get the protection from the lynch). 

 

The benefits to this plan though, I think outweigh the problems. As I pointed out above, even some of the difficulties with the plan allow it to remain flexible. But most importantly of all, this is a plan that really has no up side for the Rebels. The only reason for a Rebel to suggest it would be to try to gain brownie points so that no one would expect them. This only really works for the single person bringing it up though and the cost of losing their ability to use their kill with impunity far outweighs the benefit, IMO. 

 

 

So, if you're about to die, and it doesn't look like the vote is likely to swing in your favor, then this is a viable means to make your Divine Breath count for something rather than just dying. If you can be on near the end of the day, even better as then you'll have a better idea of whether you'll actually need to use it. 

 

That's my last argument for the plan as it stands. Either people will try it when they get lynched or they will not. I will, but I won't enforce anyone else to. 

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I always find it a bit creepy how you know my log-in times, Wyrm. As it is, I haven't been online at all lately, and I just so happen to be able to talk today, thanks to a high fever that somehow isn't making me nauseous. 

 

Um... Looks like my RNG came up with Meta again, but I'm not voting.

 

If it helps, you're the only one I know of, basically. And... Hmm... I'll let it slide for now, if you're feeling a bit off at the moment, but I expect actual discussion when you return, pandawan. Lots has happened, and you must have an opinion about something. My poke vote remains.

 

I am, I will admit, somewhat surprised by Gamma's ruling, but we should definitely use it now we know what's happening with it.

 

As a minor point, Meta, you say there is no point to a Rebel suggesting it. What if one of them happens to suggest it (arguing that it makes them clearly Village) and be the most likely person people save? It could be very beneficial, if you know where the Breath will probably go. Just a thought, but nothing serious :P.

 

So, speaking of thoughts, my current ones on what's happened overnight: I don't like it. Lynching inactives is not a good idea in such a fast format as this, as it wastes our most valuable moments of time, which is the early game. Coupled with that, it's very rare for Eliminators to actually be inactive. The danger is that people hide within the inactives, but this early on that isn't exactly a problem we can observe. Sure, we want to threaten and poke them into posting, but we always want to lynch another player because their defence (and the votes of others) give us more information. We get comparatively little information from the lynch, and we're just hoping for blink luck to have targeted an Eliminator with it. Day 1 lynches are never about trying to actually hit an Eliminator, but generating discussion.

 

We've had a lot happen in such a short space of time, and I am very concerned that people think it's still more worthwhile to lynch an inactive than anyone else. Not only have certain people (myself included) been rather outspoken, but we've also had a spate of people who have posted just to basically say they're here. They contribute nothing other than appearing to not be inactive, when in actual fact that's exactly what they are. We need to actually promote discussion in this game - Going for inactives is a safe vote, because they can't defend themselves or counter your arguments. For that matter, you don't need to place arguments to get them lynched. It's incredibly easy to do, and gets us almost nowhere.

 

My remaining thoughts this Cycle, should the worst occur, is that we should be looking at people who have seriously proposed going for inactives, as well as the people who have not actually contributed yet, despite being online. Both of these neither help us nor incriminate them, which overall means that (in the latter's case specifically) they appear to be helping generate information, despite not actually giving us anything to use.

Edited by Wyrmhero
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As a minor point, Meta, you say there is no point to a Rebel suggesting it. What if one of them happens to suggest it (arguing that it makes them clearly Village) and be the most likely person people save? It could be very beneficial, if you know where the Breath will probably go. Just a thought, but nothing serious :P.

 

The only reason for a Rebel to suggest it would be to try to gain brownie points so that no one would expect them. This only really works for the single person bringing it up though and the cost of losing their ability to use their kill with impunity far outweighs the benefit, IMO. 

 And blocking the Rebel's kill is the only way we have of confirming anyone as likely 80% good (there are options for them to target one of their own, but they'd have to feel really confident that their target was going to get the protection from the lynch). 

 

Already addressed those points, Wyrm. :P Why does it seem like you're trying to cast doubt again?

Edited by Metacognition
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Already addressed those points, Wyrm. :P Why does it seem like you're trying to cast doubt again?

 

The first point I just wanted to reiterate. Sure, saying it makes you seem very Village, but I didn't want people to go away thinking it was certain. Claiming to be 100% certain about anyone in this game based on what they're saying is a dangerous way to play, considering we can only ever get somewhat final confirmation with regards to Alignments. I'm not accusing you, or attempting to insinuate 'Meta is clearly an Eliminator, let's lynch him'. I am saying 'Meta is a clever player, and may be bringing this up because he's either an honest Villager, or an Eliminator banking on it getting more than it costs'. Probably the former, sure, but the latter should still be something we keep in the back of our minds. I think you'd be disappointed in us if we didn't consider this from multiple angles.

 

Your second point I never actually gave much thought to. My point there was that as an Eliminator it would be handy for you to know where some of the saves are headed, so you can divert your kills elsewhere. It didn't even cross my mind (other than outright dismissal) that anyone would attempt a WGG in this game. There's just simply too much that could possibly go wrong with it to even attempt getting the Village to save even you reliably. I'm of the opinion that anyone saved is confirmed Village. Anything else is just too convoluted and difficult to construct without way too much risk.

Edited by Wyrmhero
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"Get her."

Metacognition the Thoughtful looked on with a smile on his face, resplendent in his magnificent robes of royal blue and stark, blood red, each color an exact shade, easily recognized by his super-heightened BioChromatic Breath. The Breath of a God. The aura of his, and the other gods', spread out well around them, embellished even further by all of the gods gathered in one spot.

The God King had commanded, or at least his Priests had commanded the Court to seek out the Rebels, and Metacognition knew it would take his supreme Thoughfulness and intellectual prowess to lead the rest of the gods through this daunting task.

So after a little bit of deliberation, in between breakfast feast and afternoon art viewings, the Court had turned against Lynchbait the Innocent.

"Colors, just like her! So Innocent and carefree, she can't even be bothered to answer the summons of the Court."

Despite the protests of her royal priests and attendants, the Returned all rallied together and raided the palace belonging to The Goddess of Innocence. She was awoken and pulled out of her golden white bedsheets, matching her deific color-scheme and glowing with her aura, and was unceremoniously gagged and dragged to the steps of the pure black, pyramid-like palace, home of MiriKas, the God King.

A sizeable crowd had gathered by time MiriKas made his appearance, keeping even gods waiting in growing anticipation. Suddenly, Lynchbaits white gown erupted into a prism of colors, the entire light spectrum being pulled off of it by the approaching God King, and his unfathomable BioChromatic Aura.

The Priests of the God King appeared first, whispering Awakening Commands, the colored sheets they were holding being drained of color as ropes sprang to life and lassoed around the gagged Goddess.

Lynchbait rose into the air, eyes furious, struggling against her awakened bonds.

"You are permitted to declare your Innocence, and give up your Breath to try and save one of us," Metacognition declared, stepping forward, ripping the gag off of Lynchbait's mouth, giving her a chance.

"DEATH TO THE GOD KING AND ALL YOU GLUTTONOUS SCUM!" Lynchbait, the Not-So-Innocent screamed, pure fury and hate in her voice carrying throughout the entire Court of the Gods. "You will never have my Breath," she vowed, "Attack." She gave her final Command, before biting down on her own tongue, vibrant red blood shooting out and spraying across Metacognition's shocked face.

At the exact same time, dozens of dull, grey Lifeless squirrels and other small, garden critters sprang forth from the trees and bushes, attacking the rest of the gods in a frenzy, causing mass chaos and confusion.

In the ensuing Madness, Meta witnessed one of the God Kings Priests step forward and silencing the laughing Lynchbait permanently with a blade across the throat. One of the panicking gods ran past Metacognition, and bumped into him in the scramble, knocking him to the ground. He reached a hand out and found somebody else picking him up off of the ground.

"Thanks," He went to say, when he felt the knife enter into his back. Then his assailant stabbed him rapidly twice more, before twisting the knife one final time.

"I don't think you'll be coming back from this one."

***

It had taken forever for the God King's Priests to get everything settled down and straightened out, as the Court of the Gods shone just a little bit less brightly, short the Divine Auras of two gods. One thing was clear in the aftermath, however.

"It is by decree of the God King himself from henceforth, that all suspects shall have their tongues removed before being presented to his holiness, to avoid any further insults to the Iridescent Tomes and Halladren itself."

And with that, the gods of the court were left to themselves once again, to continue hunting.

-------------------------

Lynchbait the Innocent was a Rebel Returned!
Metacognition the Thoughful was a Returned!

Apologies, for I must retcon my earlier decision. After reviewing the ruling, the target of the lynch being able to use their Breath gives too much of a late game advantage when the numbers start to dwindle, and it could potentially lead to unfavorable playstyles, if left unchecked. So from here on out, The target of the Lynch can not use their Divine Breath. If they sent in an order for it, it will be negated. They can still have somebody save them with a Breath, however. Sorry for the retcon, but hopefully I fixed it and addressed most of the issues before it actually became a problem or affected the game in any way. >.>

This cycle will last ~24 hours, and end at 9AM EST, Tuesday, August 4th.

Edited by Alvron
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Ha, that's hilarious. Or at least I think so... Well done us! To whoever picked the name 'Lynchbait the Innocent', very amusing, but it didn't work out for you this time.

 

Oh, and Bort, WGG is 'Wounded Gazelle Gambit'. Others can (and have previously) explain it better (also, it was attempted in MR1 or something?), but it's basically when the eliminators try to kill one of their own players to try and 'clear' them as a villager. 

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The change in the ruling is disappointing, but at least it came early on when it doesn't matter too much. I'd guess there was either discussion on the Eliminator doc or the Spec doc about it. Maybe even both.

 

To answer Bort's question in the previous Cycle's thread, the WGG is a Wounded Gazelle Gambit. Basically, the Eliminators target one of their own with the kill, but at the same time use defensive roles to save them. The idea is that this makes them appear Village. We haven't seen this plot for over a year now (in the very second game played here, LG2).

 

I must admit that I'm surprised that Shallan was actually an Eliminator, with that inactivity there. Guess it makes sense though; she's not the most active player at times. In which case, I'm going to go back and pull the votes from last Cycle.

 

Kipper (1) - OrlokTsubodai

Shallan (3) - Kipper, Adamir, RavenRadient7

Lightsworn Panda (1) - Wyrmhero

Vauhsoj (1) - Bort

Venture Mistborn (1) - Sir Jerric

Metacognition (1) - The Only Joe

The Only Joe (1) - Metacognition

 

No votes: Haelbarde (removed after Alvron made a meaningless post), Venture Mistborn (not coloured so didn't count), phattemer, Shallan (never seen), Alvron, Lightsworn Panda, Vauhsoj (Adamir at least made a post, so), Mailliw73, A Smart Guy and The Mighty Lopen (removed from Metacognition).

 

Raven's vote change is very interesting as well, considering it turned it from a tie on Kipper and Shallan to a lynch on Shallan. Unless, somehow, both Kipper and Shallan are Eliminators (in which case, why put a second vote on Kipper in the first place?), I would say this clears Raven. The only other alternative is that they did to Shallan what we did back in MR3 with our absent Eliminator, which is possible, but probably not likely.

 

That's a lot of people who decided not to vote, which is really disappointing, particularly those who never voted at all. I'm almost spoiled for choice as to who to place a poke vote on... I would like to know why Alvron's post was good enough for you to remove your vote, Haelbarde. There is no point in a poke vote unless you actually get them to contribute, and removing it without even responding to their post is very weak. The lynch isn't a register, it's a forum for an exchange of ideas. We want to generate discussion, not just say 'oh, there you are, seems you are present'.

 

Edit: Hm, for some reason it didn't tell me there were posts before I posted. Oh well, not too important, since Haelbarde said others could provide more info.

 

Responding to Raven, generally the distribution is 1/5-1/4, depending on the rules of the game. There are 19 players, but it's slightly balanced in our favour with the Breath mechanic, so I would guess 4, maybe 5 if Gamma picked a less experienced team, but I very much doubt that. Four would be my bet.

Edited by Wyrmhero
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Excellent write up Gamma :) I do have to wonder though, when you saw the name Lynchbait the Innocent, did you let the random roll place her in the Eliminator camp, or did you assign her there yourself, just for the name? I know I would have been sorely tempted to do just that.

 

Thanks Hael (and now Wyrm too), I've heard the explanation before, I just hadn't connected the abbreviation to it.

 

I wish people would stop posting while I type. This is the third time I've had to copy/paste my post because of a new one appearing in the thread :P

 

Raven, I'd guess from the number of players, either 4 or 5 Eliminators, with one down already.

 

Wyrm, I'd like to know why Meta thought that you'd be guilty if he were innocent, or vice versa.

 

Edit: Correcting Lynchbait's name.

Edited by Bort
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I would like to know why Alvron's post was good enough for you to remove your vote, Haelbarde. There is no point in a poke vote unless you actually get them to contribute, and removing it without even responding to their post is very weak. The lynch isn't a register, it's a forum for an exchange of ideas. We want to generate discussion, not just say 'oh, there you are, seems you are present'.r favour with the Breath mechanic, so I would guess 4, maybe 5 if Gamma picked a less experienced team, but I very much doubt that. Four would be bet.

Because I had no reason to put a vote on him in the first place, any reason to keep it there, or any reason to remove it. I wasn't sure how to contribute - you guys were already having all the fun discussing how Breath could be used, and it was day one, so no preexisting information to go off. Now that we've had the lynch, and had the good fortune to hit a Rebel, we can possibly start to draw information from who voted. 

 

I guess what I should have done was actually ask Alvron a question - I suspect newer people tend to feel they have nothing to add, so don't say much, but when singled out can offer something? So it's then good practice to ask people to actually answer you about something. I mean, it helped you to get something that wasn't nonsense to come from my mouth. 

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 I feel the same way about people posting while I'm posting :P.

 

Wyrm, I'd like to know why Meta thought that you'd be guilty if he were innocent, or vice versa.

 

Mostly because I was examining the strategy he was proposing and arguing against it before we had a ruling. We had a bit of back and forth about things as well, and were antagonising each other a little (if that's the right word for it). What he meant was 'if I die, it's one of the naysayers who did it'.

 

Honestly though, I'm not 100% certain as to why he put it like that, or so openly. Admittedly, this is a game where you can't tell people things in private, but all that's done is give the Eliminators an obvious place to point fingers (not that I'm accusing you right now, I'd rather hear from Haelbarde and the less talkative players first). People should be able to figure out 'Wyrm and Meta were arguing a bit, maybe look there?' on their own, rather than have it explicitly spelt out and have that line of argument be open to exploitation.

 

Frankly though, I wouldn't say Meta's death on the first Cycle tells us anything - It happens almost every game to him, unfortunately (well, every one there's no easy access to protective Roles). If anyone was going to die on the first Cycle, it was going to be Meta, regardless of who makes up the team (unless he's on it).

 

Because I had no reason to put a vote on him in the first place, any reason to keep it there, or any reason to remove it. I wasn't sure how to contribute - you guys were already having all the fun discussing how Breath could be used, and it was day one, so no preexisting information to go off. Now that we've had the lynch, and had the good fortune to hit a Rebel, we can possibly start to draw information from who voted. 

 

I guess what I should have done was actually ask Alvron a question - I suspect newer people tend to feel they have nothing to add, so don't say much, but when singled out can offer something? So it's then good practice to ask people to actually answer you about something. I mean, it helped you to get something that wasn't nonsense to come from my mouth. 

 

Oh, thank you Haelbarde then :P. That's a much better response than I was hoping for, and thank you for being so thorough. Yes, asking questions and following up is crucial to this. It doesn't really matter what line of inquiry you pursue, the act of discussion generates a lot of evidence for or against a player's innocence (and sometimes both).

 

My next thought is that I would like to hear from Mailliw73. I know he's around right now from PMs, so he's got a bit of time on his hands at the present. He's also a really experienced player. So why didn't you vote during the previous Cycle?

Edited by Wyrmhero
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Wyrm, I don't think you can just brush off Meta's accusations. Judging by the thread, he was getting worried that you were deliberately trying to derail his plan. Even if we now know the plan won't work, your repeated arguments still hurt your cause. To me, it sounds like you were being deliberately paranoid, in order to sow dissension among us. For those reasons, I'm putting my vote on you.

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Wyrm, I don't think you can just brush off Meta's accusations. Judging by the thread, he was getting worried that you were deliberately trying to derail his plan. Even if we now know the plan won't work, your repeated arguments still hurt your cause. To me, it sounds like you were being deliberately paranoid, in order to sow dissension among us. For those reasons, I'm putting my vote on you.

 

I'm not trying to brush them off, I'm trying to respond to them. I wasn't trying to derail his plan - When/while we were told it worked, I was all for it. I just wanted to make sure things worked out properly before we agreed to it in case it wasn't going to work how we thought it was. I wasn't aware that advising caution and getting confirmation from the GM was bad now.

 

And as for being deliberately paranoid, that's a bit of an odd thing to say. This entire game is about looking at people closely and examining them for innocence or guilt. Paranoia is naturally a part of that. I was probably overcompensating since it's Meta, I admit that. Probably not alone in thinking about things like that. For that matter,  I wasn't trying to sow dissension either, just voicing my thoughts for people to discuss. It seems to have worked, no? :P

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Interesting thing I spotted today at work - Sir Jerric and A Smart Guy seem to be taking turns sitting in the thread, I assume watching for activity or lurkers, but it happened several times today. At one look, I'd see Sir Jerric in the thread, and the next time I checked, he'd be gone, and A Smart Guy was in his place. Or vice versa. It may be a total coincidence, I'll admit, probably is, but it did strike me as something odd, especially since neither of them were posting.

 

Of course, A Smart Guy has now posted, but Sir Jerric still hasn't.

 

Wyrm, you've answered my question for now. I might come back to you later though, depending on what others say, but for now...

 

Sir Jerric, are you and A Smart Guy conspiring?

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