Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[Wyrmhero]

Well, looks like I ninja'd Claincy there, so I think I'm willing to remove my vote . It's good to know that Weiry was actually part of a gamble, and while it doesn't clear you both, it makes me feel a little better. I don't think Sarcomere did reveal his Role there, though he hinted towards knowledge that the average player wouldn't have all the same. The fact that Weiry was actually singled out means one of two things then - Either Claincy or Mailliw are Spiked, or they did indeed suspect that a Coinshot would hit him last Night. I would like to know why you decided to Coinshot him though, myself, when we should have lynched him. Though I suppose we couldn't get that much info off him, at this point. We should almost certainly lynch him at the end of the day though, just to stave off lynch-or-lose a bit longer.

 

So, two questions remain here:

 

Firstly, how do you know that Newan wasn't the Spiked Smoker?

Secondly, if Weiry is indeed an Eliminator, then I would like to say that I called it

 

Also, just to clarify, I knew that Wilson was a Lurcher, but she never told me her targets.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Claincy]

I think technically you ninja'd me.

 

Sarc said he was the village soother that was seeked by Araris in his last post in the last cycle.

 

 

I would like to know why you decided to Coinshot him though, myself, when we should have lynched him.

I was offline most of the night cycle. Hero made the call to target Weiry and I didn't get online with time to post till near the end of the cycle, after Sarc had already said his piece. By that point Hero was offline and didn't get back online before the end of the cycle *shrug*.

 

 

Secondly, if Weiry is indeed an Eliminator, then I would like to say that I called it

Permission granted

[Lightsworn Panda]

Pardon my inactivity yet again. Visiting relatives take up a surprising amount of time, and I've only been able to briefly check in.

 

Pardon me yet again while I desperately try to catch up with everything. Can someone explain why no one has cast suspicion on Pifferdoo?

 

Edit: Great to have you back, colour editor.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Lightsworn Panda

[Peng the Just]

Couple flaws in your logic here, clan. 1stly, wirey being slingshot last night was FAR from a guarantee, unless the spiked were in contact with hero about who he would shoot. Sarc was the only one casting a lot of suspicion on him. In your post, you make it sound like everybody knew he'd be shot. The only way the spiked would waste a lurch on a villager is if they KNEW who would die, otherwise they wouldn't take that risk. I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey. Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

My vote is on weiry. Even if he happens.to be innocent, we would learn a lot from that. It would probably mean the spiked knew he would be shot

[Unodus]

13 active players now, right? If we lose any more people, we're going to be outnumbered...

[A Joe in the Bush]

Mailliw is Spiked.

I accused him earlier because he didn't die tonight, when it made sense for him to do so, due to his role being the Tineye. Wilson said she was playing I-know-you-know with the spiked about whether she was protecting herself or the tineye. Mailliw knew who she was protecting, and pointed the spiked at Wilson, since she was protecting the Tineye.

Why would Wilson trust one of the spiked? Because of me. On Day 1 I laid a trap for Mailliw, which would allow me to see whether he was good or evil. I did so by implying I had revealed my role to Eolhondras. Mailliw contacted me and asked if I was tineye 2, which is what I thought he would do if he was spiked. I said I was. I then told Wilson about my plan, that If I died, then Mailliw was spiked. It backfired when Mailliw proved to wilson he was Tineye 2.

He proved he was a Tineye, so Wilson never had him seeked.

He knew that Wilson was protecting himself, so had the spiked kill Wilson.

I confronted him about this in a PM last night, but he hasn't been online. I didn't want to post this until he had defended himself, but Then Wyrm revealed that Mailliw was one of the few who knew who the Coinshot was.

Tl;dr:

Mailliw was the Tineye protected by Wilson, didn't get seeked, and knew who the Coinshot was and who Wilson was protecting.

EDIT: Addendum on PM's.

If we kill him, we'll lose all access to PM's, but We don't need them anymore. We've lost our Seeker, Lurcher and Coinshot, so we don't need to keep anything secret from the spiked. Getting rid of the PM's will actually encourage people to post in the thread rather than thei PM's.

Edited January 18, 2015 by The Only Joe

[Mailliw73]

[quote name="lord Claincy Ffnord" post="217761" timestamp="1421576129"

 

So anyway, there we are. From what has happened I don't think it is at all certain that there is a spiked (or more than one) in what remains of the "trust group" as such and I from my observations I don't individually think that any of them are spiked, but, *shrug* I cannot discount the possibility entirely.

 

One final quick note: I'm not terribly impressed with Maill or Joe's reasoning in the posts above, can we really afford to be that vague and in-specific or deliberately avoid stating why we suspect them at this point?

 

 

I too am inclined to agree that we don't have a traitor in our group. I think the Spiked are doing a good job of stretching our resources, our guessing us, and using a Seeker. Once Wilson revealed that she knew the Coinshot, it was easy to guess that she would protect Hero, leaving herself open. Once that happened, they have easy kills everywhere.

I know it isn't good reasoning, but Pifferdoo, Senn, and Jain(and Macen and Jasnah, but they're inactive) have easily avoided much suspicions and I can't see why that should happen. We're getting down to the wire here. We aren't quite as desperate as it seems, but we need the next couple lynches to be good.

 

 

Firstly, how do you know that Newan wasn't the Spiked Smoker?

Secondly, if Weiry is indeed an Eliminator, then I would like to say that I called it

 

Also, just to clarify, I knew that Wilson was a Lurcher, but she never told me her targets.

  

We don't know that. I asked Hero to Coinshot Weiry because I found it far more likely that Weiry having hid being a Smoker this long would be more suspicious than Newan, who revealed his role to me and Joe on the first day.

Couple flaws in your logic here, clan. 1stly, wirey being slingshot last night was FAR from a guarantee, unless the spiked were in contact with hero about who he would shoot. Sarc was the only one casting a lot of suspicion on him. In your post, you make it sound like everybody knew he'd be shot. The only way the spiked would waste a lurch on a villager is if they KNEW who would die, otherwise they wouldn't take that risk. I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey. Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

My vote is on weiry. Even if he happens.to be innocent, we would learn a lot from that. It would probably mean the spiked knew he would be shot

 

No, after I told Hero to shoot Weiry, the only likely way Weiry would be saved is if Claincy, Sarc, or Hero himself were Spiked. The Spiked had no reason to think that we suspected Weiry. Once Sarc made his announcement, it became obvious that the Spiked would want to lurch Weiry, whether he is spiked or not.

 

13 active players now, right? If we lose any more people, we're going to be outnumbered...

  

Not quite. It doesn't matter how many are active, just how many total. We have 17 players left, of which 6 are likely spiked, so that makes the odds 11-6. We still have time to make a couple mistakes, but if we mislynch more than twice, it'll be nigh impossible to recover from that.

Mailliw is Spiked.

I accused him earlier because he didn't die tonight, when it made sense for him to do so, due to his role being the Tineye. Wilson said she was playing I-know-you-know with the spiked about whether she was protecting herself or the tineye. Mailliw knew who she was protecting, and pointed the spiked at Wilson, since she was protecting the Tineye.

Why would Wilson trust one of the spiked? Because of me. On Day 1 I laid a trap for Mailliw, which would allow me to see whether he was good or evil. I did so by implying I had revealed my role to Eolhondras. Mailliw contacted me and asked if I was tineye 2, which is what I thought he would do if he was spiked. I said I was. I then told Wilson about my plan, that If I died, then Mailliw was spiked. It backfired when Mailliw proved to wilson he was Tineye 2.

He proved he was a Tineye, so Wilson never had him seeked.

He knew that Wilson was protecting himself, so had the spiked kill Wilson.

I confronted him about this in a PM last night, but he hasn't been online. I didn't want to post this until he had defended himself, but Then Wyrm revealed that Mailliw was one of the few who knew who the Coinshot was.

Tl;dr:

Mailliw was the Tineye protected by Wilson, didn't get seeked, and knew who the Coinshot was and who Wilson was protecting.

Well, thanks for revealing my role, Joe. I have some choice words, but I'll keep it civil. I thought the Spiked knew my role after I revealed it to a number of people the first day with Eol's gambit. But, as it's gone down, most of throes have died and been proven good. Wilson and I realized that it was still very possible the Spiked didn't know my role. But now they do, and there's no getting around it. I can't tell you why I didn't die yet, except that the Spiked didn't know my role or they wanted me to gather suspicion like this.

Of course I wasn't Seeked. The only one we know of who Araris Seeked is Sarc. Wilson herself wasn't Seeked. You're right, I did know that Hero was the Coinshot, and I did know who Wilson was protecting. But, if I recall correctly, Wilson only lurched me once. I had plenty of opportunities to cripple the village since day one, when I learned Wilson's role. I could've rid the village of their Lurcher and crippled communications and planning.

It's time to lay everything out then, since I have no reason to hide my role. I am a Village Tineye and I trust Claincy with my life. I do not know his alignment with certainty, but I trust that he's villager. The only others one I trust completely is Sarc. I don't think Wyrm is Spiekd, but I can't say for sure. If I had to pick someone of the more trusted group to be a traitor, I would say Wyrm. I think it's very likely that Weiry, Peng, Senn, and dowanx are Spiked. If only one or none of those four are, then Claincy and Wyrm have orchestrated this entire game to their liking. I think the Spiked have at least one, maybe two, Inactives and so we should focus on the actives first since they're the biggest threats. If we do have another Coinshot, Lurcher, or seeker, they are inactive. I know there's a plan to communicate to a few of you should I be killed, but in that case only one other would know how to use that plan. There you go. Everything I have out on the table.

Kill me if you must, but if you do, you'll lose a Villager as well as your PMs.

[A Joe in the Bush]

I knew that revealing Your role would be seen as a bad idea, but as I added in in an Edit, we've lost all needs for Hidden communication. 

 

Well, thanks for revealing my role, Joe. I have some choice words, but I'll keep it civil. I thought the Spiked knew my role after I revealed it to a number of people the first day with Eol's gambit. But, as it's gone down, most of throes have died and been proven good. Wilson and I realized that it was still very possible the Spiked didn't know my role. But now they do, and there's no getting around it. I can't tell you why I didn't die yet, except that the Spiked didn't know my role or they wanted me to gather suspicion like this.

 

If you and Wilson realized it was very possible you were still hidden, why did she still lurch you? It would have been better to lurch who you knew was a target, rather than who might be a target. And if you Trust Claincy with your life, believing him to be innocent, then only you could have revealed to the spiked who the coinshot was.

[Mailliw73]

She lurched me on night 2. We began to think they didn't know my role later, like day 3 or so.

I am 80% sure that the Spiked have a seeker. Or they are just very good guessers. I don't think anyone revealed Hero.

[Unodus]

(Am I the only one who didn't know Mail was a Tineye? >.> )

 

Hey Mail, since you confessed to being the TIneye- could you tell us the secret meanings behind your tineye messages? Because I spent a really long time trying to decode them- to no avail x.x

I mean... there were secrets hidden in them right? :V

[Seonid]

Mail, from your posts all I can gather from your posts is that you suspect me because I've been "too convenient," whatever that means. Care to elaborate? If you have more reasons beyond that, I'd be happy to answer them.

 

As an argument in favor of your trust, however, I remind you that I was one of the people to whom you revealed your role on day 1. You may have forgotten, as that PM died rather quickly, but the fact that I haven't betrayed your role should be an evidence in my favor.

 

As I said, though, if you have other reasons for suspicion, I am more that willing to listen to them and answer them.

 

As far as my own vote goes, although I find Weiry suspicious, I am persuaded by Mail's reasoning that a bandwagon on him would deny us critical information. (And Claincy's cautions about a potential Spiked gambit are good reasoning, too).

 

I had been persuaded about Newan last cycle, and although his request to be Coinshot last night calmed those suspicions somewhat, I have begun to reconsider that. It is likely that the Spiked knew that they were going to be targeting the Coinshot early in the cycle, and Newan's post may have been an attempt to ensure that the Coinshot attack him, so that he could be Lurched and the attack wasted.

[A Joe in the Bush]

I had been persuaded about Newan last cycle, and although his request to be Coinshot last night calmed those suspicions somewhat, I have begun to reconsider that. It is likely that the Spiked knew that they were going to be targeting the Coinshot early in the cycle, and Newan's post may have been an attempt to ensure that the Coinshot attack him, so that he could be Lurched and the attack wasted.

 

But Riew was target and lurched instead. So I don't think that's how it happened.

 

I am removing my Vote from Mailliw, as I have learned that at least 3, and possibly more people knew Hero's Role. My vote may go back on Mailliw later, but it might not.

[Mailliw73]

(Am I the only one who didn't know Mail was a Tineye? >.> )

 

Hey Mail, since you confessed to being the TIneye- could you tell us the secret meanings behind your tineye messages? Because I spent a really long time trying to decode them- to no avail x.x

I mean... there were secrets hidden in them right? :V

  

No, there were plenty who didn't know.

Have patience. All will be revealed in time. (Meaning, once the game is over, I'll decide and dissect every message.)

Mail, from your posts all I can gather from your posts is that you suspect me because I've been "too convenient," whatever that means. Care to elaborate? If you have more reasons beyond that, I'd be happy to answer them.

 

As an argument in favor of your trust, however, I remind you that I was one of the people to whom you revealed your role on day 1. You may have forgotten, as that PM died rather quickly, but the fact that I haven't betrayed your role should be an evidence in my favor.

 

As I said, though, if you have other reasons for suspicion, I am more that willing to listen to them and answer them.

 

As far as my own vote goes, although I find Weiry suspicious, I am persuaded by Mail's reasoning that a bandwagon on him would deny us critical information. (And Claincy's cautions about a potential Spiked gambit are good reasoning, too).

 

I had been persuaded about Newan last cycle, and although his request to be Coinshot last night calmed those suspicions somewhat, I have begun to reconsider that. It is likely that the Spiked knew that they were going to be targeting the Coinshot early in the cycle, and Newan's post may have been an attempt to ensure that the Coinshot attack him, so that he could be Lurched and the attack wasted.

Sorry, Seonid. I don't have much. It's just that you've slid by easily and that's an ideal position for a Spiked Mistborn/Coinshot/Lurcher/Seeker, especially one who is new to this. You and Pifferdoo could easily be Spiked. I know this is flimsy and has no real reasoning, but for now, I'm sticking to it.

[Claincy]

So I realized that I forgot an important point in my discussion above. It'd been in my head beforehand but somehow never made it into the post

 

In the same PM where Hero told me he was targeting Weiry last night he also told me that at least 4 people knew his role (or were pretty certain of it) and that he thought he might die because he suspected that one of us was spiked. (Turns out it was back on the 16th when he said only Maill and I knew.) He also mentioned being in contact with both village soothers at that point. I don't know who the other 2 people who knew his role are, though I strongly suspect that Sarc was one and I wonder if Wyrm or the other soother (which I don't know who is) was the other. Hero did say that he hadn't told anyone else that he was targeting Weiry though I don't know if he did later, but I don't think it would have been at all hard to guess.

 

Sorry that I forgot about that, I know it's rather important information

 

Couple flaws in your logic here, clan. 1stly, wirey being slingshot last night was FAR from a guarantee, unless the spiked were in contact with hero about who he would shoot. Sarc was the only one casting a lot of suspicion on him. In your post, you make it sound like everybody knew he'd be shot. The only way the spiked would waste a lurch on a villager is if they KNEW who would die, otherwise they wouldn't take that risk. I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey. Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

My vote is on weiry. Even if he happens.to be innocent, we would learn a lot from that. It would probably mean the spiked knew he would be shot

The above info might make it make a little more sense why I thought the spiked likely knew/guessed. My own figuring was that provided Sarc was telling the truth about being a soother who was soothed by Araris the odds that he was in communication with the coinshot were extremely high. (I knew they were, but I'm talking about what people who didn't know could guess.) From that it seems to me a logical conclusion, just based on the evidence in the thread, that Weiry was a likely coinshot target, and it's entirely possible that the spiked had more information than that to go on.

"I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey."

Short of Weiry being a lurcher  (very unlikely), neither can I. I'm pretty certain that was a spiked lurcher.

 

 

Also, in your post, you acknowledge the evidence of my innocence, then proceed to vote for me anyway

I noted two relatively significant things you had done that made no difference in my mind to how suspicious you were and talked about 1 that made you slightly less suspicious but could still have easily been a spiked action with a net change of very little in my suspicions. There's nothing terribly strange about me continuing to vote for you based on that.

[Newan]

Pardon my Alethi, but Clan's mega post is a load of chull crem.

That reasoning is soooooo precarious. Let me sum up: Weiry might not have been spiked because the spiked might have decided to use copperclouds to cast suspicion on people, even though they don't know for sure that the villagers no longer have a seeker. And the spiked might have lurched Weiry to delay us, even if he was a villager.

Hahaha what?! That's absurd! Yes, I understand that it's possible, but it's also outlandish! With evidence that there are likely 4 smokers, why would the spiked risk so much based on the uncertainty that there were only 2 seekers, just hoping that somebody they smoked would be seeked so they could frame that person. The spiked don't need to do ridiculous plots where they cloud people and then lurch them, because they obviously have a smoker and a seeker! They're going to be clouding and protecting themselves, because that's what the spiked always do. (I think that's what they always do. Isn't that what they always do?)

Anyway, apparently Clan thought these possibilities were redeeming enough that Weiry was less suspicious than Peng. I don't. Weiry

Also, Wyrm: No, we don't know that I'm not the spiked smoker, because nobody soothed my vote last cycle, even though I asked them to. But even if I was, that would mean it was even more likely that Weiry was the spiked lurcher! (because it would mean he wasn't the spiked smoker.) Not certain, but more likely. So it doesn't make sense why you would also choose to vote for somebody who wasn't Weiry.

Joe's reasoning makes sense. I tentatively believe that Mailliw is bad. This makes me feel better, because a couple of cycles ago he told me how much he trusted Clan and Wyrm. I don't trust them. Their playstyle reminds me of the pirate quick fix. It seems like they're being super helpful, and everything they say makes sense on the surface, but they manipulate by giving some things more attention than others, rather then by telling lies. It's crafty and genious, and totally forgivable for anybody to believe them enough to create a chart that shows how trustworthy they are. Right? Right???

Also, you all should know that my coppercloud is currently on. I honestly believed that I would be killed in the last night cycle, so I didn't PM Meta. And the smoker's default position is to have the coppercloud on. Sorry about that.

[A Joe in the Bush]

First, A vote Tally:

 

WeiryWriter(5): Sarcomere, Peng, Newan, Joe <2>, Mckeedee

Newan(2): Wyrm, Seonid, Claincy <2>

Seonid(1): Mailliw 

Peng(0): Claincy <1>

Pifferdoo(1): Panda 

Mailliw(0): Joe <1>

Claincy(0): Wyrm

 

Also Mailliw, due to the formatting of this post, it looks like you're voting for Newan.

 

There are currently 3 main Suspects: WeiryWriter, JasonPenguin and Newan

 

The case against WeiryWriter:

 

The leader in this vote is Sarcomere, who was seeked, and proven innocent. Last Night he asked all villagers to Vote for and Lynch WeiryWriter. He started by revealing his role of a soother, and said that he had soothed Riew, but she was smoked. All of this I believe, as he's been's seeked.

 

He says he has it on good Authority that Newan had his cloud off Yesterday. Sarc, how do you know this? The only way to know this is if Newan told you, and as his vote wasn't soothed, there's no way to be sure whether he had his cloud on or off.

 

But Riew was smoked, and Lurched! The Lurching is the important part, as it means the Spiked knew somehow who we were going to shoot. Some possibilities:

1. Riew is the spiked Lurcher, and not knowing who was going to be coinshotted, lurched himself. He was also smoked by either Newan or the Spiked Smoker. This means we don't have a leak.
2. Riew is the Spiked Smoker and simply left his cloud on. He was lurched, so unless they decided he was the most suspicious at the time, We still have a Leak.
3. Riew is innocent, but the spiked knew we were going to target him, so they saved him and Smoked him just in case to make us waste a lynch. This seems convoluted at first, but makes perfect sense, seeing as they had both a smoker and a Lurcher, and as Claincy said, Sarc painted a huge target on Riew.

Possibility three is actually possible because of the math: If they lurch Innocent Riew: 1 spiked kill + us lynching Riew + 1 Spiked kill = three kills where none of them are in danger. If they don't lurch Riew: 1 spiked kill + Us killing Riew+ Us talking and figuring out who to kill +1 Spiked kill = 3 kills, plus an extra where they might be in danger. So Lurching Innocnt Riew actually gives them a slight advantage.

 

The Case against JasonPenguin:

 

The only Vocal player suspicious of Peng is Claincy. I'm inclined to believe that Claincy is innocent, since Wilson whole-heartedly trusted him.

 

Other than that, and the fact that Peng and I are the only two unproven Experienced players, I really don't see a case against him at all.

 

The Case against Newan:

 

Asked to be Coinshoted early on, but then vigorously defends himself from death now. Has been pretty inactive at first. (As Have I). He does believe that Claincy's post is a load of crem, thinking the spiked wouldn't bother lurching a villager. but I've already stated that's not true.But that's not true. 

 

So I'm going to vote for Riew. If he's innocent, then Newan's probably Spiked.

 

EDIT: There, everything's fixed.

Edited January 19, 2015 by The Only Joe

[Claincy]

This post is a direct response to Newan, I'm not quoting just for the sake of page space

 

I could pretend to be angry at having my post called "a load of chull crem" but I'm not going to. Whenever I make a detailed post like this in an elimination game I fully expect someone to try to discredit it, and it's always interesting to see who. Though honestly Newan, that post is a remarkably poor effort on your part.

 

To get the obvious out of the way first, you call a single portion of my post absurd (providing only the most basic reasoning to support your own assertions) and use that as a basis to call my entire post a load of crem, attempting to discredit everything else in the post by association with the one point that you attacked. The only assumption necessary in my post (which I clearly stated) is that the spiked are intelligent and that they almost certainly have at least one experienced player among them. We're down 11 villagers including most of the power-roles without taking out a single spiked, assuming otherwise at this point would be foolishness.

 

Let's break this down:

 

uncertainty that there were only 2 seekers

I will be utterly shocked if there is another village seeker in the game. There is 0 evidence to support the existence of one (unless they are inactive in which case they might as well not exist anyway), if there was another seeker they have had 6 cycles in which to seek people, I find it almost impossible to believe that in that time they have entirely failed to build a trust group or find any useful targets and that there would have been no indication of their existence. While it's even more obvious to someone who's been part of the main trust groups what has happened in the thread is enough to discredit the idea of there being another village seeker provided you are paying attention.

 

 

They're going to be clouding and protecting themselves, because that's what the spiked always do. (I think that's what they always do. Isn't that what they always do?)

Well no, it's not. Not if they are smart. Detecting someone who is smoked in the early game or at this point in the game is enough to throw heavy suspicion on them. It doesn't really matter whether they were seeked or had their vote manipulated. This is evidenced quite clearly by the suspicion on Weiry from this single incident (I've already clearly stated what I think of the rest of the evidence). As a result, and with the almost certainty of their being no village seekers left in play the spiked could very easily use their smoker offensively by smoking people they thought were likely to be soothed (or seeked earlier in the game). If there is a traitor amongst the trust groups this kind of strategy makes even more sense as they would have more information on which to base their smoking. So that they would do something like this is entirely feasible, if not likely. That said, if they are doing that then that leaves it to a 50/50 as to whether Weiry is the smoker or the smokee. Which still leads to an overall decent chance of Weiry being spiked which is why he's still in my top 3 suspects, but without further evidence to support Weiry being spiked it isn't quite enough to pass my suspicion on you and Peng.

 

 

And the spiked might have lurched Weiry to delay us, even if he was a villager.

I think I've already said as much on that particular point as there is of value to say.

 

 

But even if I was, that would mean it was even more likely that Weiry was the spiked lurcher! (because it would mean he wasn't the spiked smoker.) Not certain, but more likely. So it doesn't make sense why you would also choose to vote for somebody who wasn't Weiry.

Only if you completely reject my points, which of course you did. If, in fact, I am correct, then if you are a spiked smoker the odds that Weiry is a villager improve noticeably. (The opposite is also true to an extent, if we lynch Weiry and he is a villager my suspicion of you will decrease.) But given my existing suspicions against you (which you are only making stronger) that is one more reason to find Weiry slightly less suspicious than you and Peng.

 

Your post is based on the assumption of me being a fool, or spiked. Your "logic" equates to calling my reasoning absurd without providing any significant evidence to support your claim and repeatedly and confidently making assertions that make perfect sense from the perspective of a newer player, but fall apart in the face of more experienced and detailed strategies. From a new player, I'd kind of expect the arguments you're making. But you're not a new player and you know better than this. Which means that you are significantly overstating your points and dismissing mine for the sake of trying to discredit me.

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me or pointing out flaws in my reasoning, but you can do a heck of a lot better than that Newan. Your points aren't entirely without merit, but they are rather basic, and your own apparent bias and aggressiveness is getting in the way of them.

 

It's entirely possible that Weiry is spiked, but I'm more certain that you are. So yes, I'm going to change my vote to Newan now, you just passed Peng in terms of suspiciousness. If people want to read into all this as me being overly defensive of Weiry or overly aggressive towards someone who disagrees with me, go for it, I can't stop you. *shrug* I like to look at things from multiple angles, including the angle of what I personally would be doing if I was spiked, and if no-one else feels like discussing it I'm going to make sure that different possibilities have at least been considered. Bandwagoning on to one person based on a single situation before considering if there are other explanations seems like a very bad idea.

 

 

Their playstyle reminds me of the pirate quick fix. It seems like they're being super helpful, and everything they say makes sense on the surface, but they manipulate by giving some things more attention than others, rather then by telling lies. It's crafty and genious, and totally forgivable for anybody to believe them enough to create a chart that shows how trustworthy they are. Right? Right???

There's not a whole lot I can say regarding this. *shrug* The only way for me to avoid this kind of suspicion is to sit back and not get involved in the discussion and analysis in such detail and I don't intend to do that.

 

Edit: Ok, maybe I am a little annoyed. I don't like people dismissing my points and arguments without sufficient cause, and I'm not that fond of being told my multi-hour post was chull crem.

Edit2: So I apologize if this came off as offensive to you personally. That wasn't what I was trying to do.

Edited January 19, 2015 by lord Claincy Ffnord

[Mckeedee123]

Weiry. I haven't posted on the whole Weiry fiasco yet, but let me just say that I'm a fan of evidence. The fact that copper was on Weiry is a far better reason to lynch him than any circumstantial evidence can provide. The fact that he was in contact with (or was) a lurcher or Mistborn strengthens that assertion even more, which is why I'm voting for Riew.

[Unodus]

  Have patience. All will be revealed in time. (Meaning, once the game is over, I'll decide and dissect every message.)

Are you sure? :V

I mean, now that your role has been revealed- that'll make you a target for the spiked, right? If the messages include vital clues- it might be better to reveal them now while you still can... :/

Good job on all the poems, btw ^=^

Edited January 19, 2015 by Unodus

[Newan]

I'm sorry.  I was definitely too rude in my previous post.  Sometimes I get worked up when I feel really confident about what I'm going to say, and I forget to think about how I'm saying it.  

 

 

 

To get the obvious out of the way first, you call a single portion of my post absurd (providing only the most basic reasoning to support your own assertions) and use that as a basis to call my entire post a load of crem, attempting to discredit everything else in the post by association with the one point that you attacked. The only assumption necessary in my post (which I clearly stated) is that the spiked are intelligent and that they almost certainly have at least one experienced player among them. We're down 11 villagers including most of the power-roles without taking out a single spiked, assuming otherwise at this point would be foolishness.

 

You're right.  There were parts of your post that I disagreed with, and those are the parts that I was addressing, but it was wrong of me to attack the post as a whole.  For example, I completely agree with the part where you talk about how two people voting closely together is not indicative of them both being spiked.  

 

However, I do think that your logic was unbalanced.  

 

 

 

Let's break this down:

I will be utterly shocked if there is another village seeker in the game. There is 0 evidence to support the existence of one (unless they are inactive in which case they might as well not exist anyway), if there was another seeker they have had 6 cycles in which to seek people, I find it almost impossible to believe that in that time they have entirely failed to build a trust group or find any useful targets and that there would have been no indication of their existence. While it's even more obvious to someone who's been part of the main trust groups what has happened in the thread is enough to discredit the idea of there being another village seeker provided you are paying attention.

 

But would the spiked be willing to bet everything on that assumption?  I would be erring on the side of caution, but I've only been spiked 1.5 times.  On those occasions, I didn't attempt any intricate gambits.  Others might be more likely to do something like that.  I just don't buy it, though.  It's too risky for too small a chance of fulfillment.  

 

 

 

Well no, it's not. Not if they are smart. Detecting someone who is smoked in the early game or at this point in the game is enough to throw heavy suspicion on them. It doesn't really matter whether they were seeked or had their vote manipulated. 

 

I'm not trying to be contrary here; I'm actually curious: Have the spiked tried any gambits of this caliber?  I don't have that much experience being spiked, but both times all I did was try to avoid suspicion while trying to cast suspicion in other places.  Sometimes I had plans that included which order we would kill people, but nothing as elaborate as this.  Has something like this worked before?  Because if so, I'm extremely impressed.

Also, if the spiked tried this, are banking on the fact that there aren't seekers, but carry on.

 

 

 

This is evidenced quite clearly by the suspicion on Weiry from this single incident (I've already clearly stated what I think of the rest of the evidence). As a result, and with the almost certainty of their being no village seekers left in play the spiked could very easily use their smoker offensively by smoking people they thought were likely to be soothed (or seeked earlier in the game). If there is a traitor amongst the trust groups this kind of strategy makes even more sense as they would have more information on which to base their smoking. So that they would do something like this is entirely feasible, if not likely. That said, if they are doing that then that leaves it to a 50/50 as to whether Weiry is the smoker or the smokee. Which still leads to an overall decent chance of Weiry being spiked which is why he's still in my top 3 suspects, but without further evidence to support Weiry being spiked it isn't quite enough to pass my suspicion on you and Peng.

 

I think I've already said as much on that particular point as there is of value to say.

 

Only if you completely reject my points, which of course you did. If, in fact, I am correct, then if you are a spiked smoker the odds that Weiry is a villager improve noticeably. (The opposite is also true to an extent, if we lynch Weiry and he is a villager my suspicion of you will decrease.) But given my existing suspicions against you (which you are only making stronger) that is one more reason to find Weiry slightly less suspicious than you and Peng.

 

I don't disagree with any of what you've said here.  Moving on. 

 

 

 

Your post is based on the assumption of me being a fool, or spiked. 

 

I would never assume you were a fool.  I said in my post that I think you are crafty and genius.  You are correct that my post is based on the assumption of you being spiked.  

 

 

 

Your "logic" equates to calling my reasoning absurd without providing any significant evidence to support your claim 

 

I know you're mad at me, and rightfully so, but putting logic in quotation marks doesn't debase my argument.  I explained my reasoning in the third paragraph of my post, right after I called your reasoning absurd.

 

 

 

and repeatedly and confidently making assertions that make perfect sense from the perspective of a newer player, but fall apart in the face of more experienced and detailed strategies. 

 

Really?  Because I don't think what I said is falling apart at all.  I still don't believe that spiked would try something like that.  I understand your points, but what you say still doesn't make it sound like a good plan.  I honestly don't believe the spiked are doing it.  However, if by some chance the spiked are doing it, then good on you.  In that case, which I do not consider likely at all, it is obviously succeeding.  

 

 

 

From a new player, I'd kind of expect the arguments you're making. But you're not a new player and you know better than this. Which means that you are significantly overstating your points and dismissing mine for the sake of trying to discredit me.

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me or pointing out flaws in my reasoning, but you can do a heck of a lot better than that Newan. Your points aren't entirely without merit, but they are rather basic, and your own apparent bias and aggressiveness is getting in the way of them.

 

I will state my points however much I please.  The purpose of my post was to discredit your argument.  I did not agree with it.  

 

This attitude like you're disappointed in me, or that you expected better from me... where is that coming from?  What are the great works I have composed that have set your standards for me so high?  I've always been like this.  I think something, and then I say it.  I use emotion as well as evidence, and I try to be concise.  Here, it seems that you are looking down on my post because it isn't something that you would be happy with if you posted it.  But don't judge me for having a simpler play-style than you do.  

 

Also, my own apparent bias?  What is that?  What's my apparent bias?  My points are extremely clear.  What I'm currently trying to accomplish, is that my bias that is getting in the way of my points?  My points are getting in the way of my points?  Saying somebody is biased is usually a good way to discredit someone, but I don't think it works here because I have absolutely no agenda besides what I publicly bring to the table.  

Attention everyone:  I would prefer not to die.  When I suspect that people are spiked, I want them to die.  Behold, the bias of Newan.  

 

 

 

 

It's entirely possible that Weiry is spiked, but I'm more certain that you are. So yes, I'm going to change my vote to Newan now, you just passed Peng in terms of suspiciousness. If people want to read into all this as me being overly defensive of Weiry or overly aggressive towards someone who disagrees with me, go for it, I can't stop you. *shrug* I like to look at things from multiple angles, including the angle of what I personally would be doing if I was spiked, and if no-one else feels like discussing it I'm going to make sure that different possibilities have at least been considered. Bandwagoning on to one person based on a single situation before considering if there are other explanations seems like a very bad idea.

 

There's not a whole lot I can say regarding this. *shrug* The only way for me to avoid this kind of suspicion is to sit back and not get involved in the discussion and analysis in such detail and I don't intend to do that.

 

Edit: Ok, maybe I am a little annoyed. I don't like people dismissing my points and arguments without sufficient cause, and I'm not that fond of being told my multi-hour post was chull crem.

Edit2: So I apologize if this came off as offensive to you personally. That wasn't what I was trying to do.

 

 

When I created my earlier post, I was feeling extremely confident.  I wanted to inform everyone in a way that could not be misunderstood that I thought your post was manipulative and false.  I rushed things.  

 

What I didn't think about at the time was that, no matter what your role was, you had constructed a brilliant post that took a lot of work.  The way I made my point was rude, childish, and unnecessary.  If I had taken a moment to consider your feelings, I could have restated things in a way that was just as clear without being hurtful.  

 

While I haven't changed my mind on the reasoning in my post, I am extremely sorry for the way I said it.  I'll be better in the future.  Please forgive me.

[Wyrmhero]

At this point in time, I'm not too bothered about who we lynch as all the people up for the chop are people I am highly suspicious of. I will in fact change my vote though, from Newan to Weiry, as I have realised how much more information we get from Weiry's death than Newan's - And Weiry might have a much more important Role than Newan. Note though, that we cannot afford another draw this Cycle. We need at least two more votes on one person than the next - Perhaps even three, just to be safe. Something I don't quite understand - Why are we saying that Weiry could be a false positive, when they would have had to know on Night 4 who Sarco was going to Sooth in order to block it?

 

I'd also like to know who knew Hreo's Role, other than Mailliw and Claincy, because I am pretty sure that one of those people is Spiked. Did Hreo really not share that with people, just in case something might happen?

 

Edit: Night 5 to Night 4. Got a bit confused counting backwards.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Claincy]

While I haven't changed my mind on the reasoning in my post, I am extremely sorry for the way I said it.  I'll be better in the future.  Please forgive me.

 

I do, and hopefully you can forgive me for my response as well. It was significantly more aggressive, less structured and generally poor and unpleasant than it should have been. Where I noted in that post that I was dissapointed at your post and thought you can do better, I feel exactly the same way about my own post. However valid the points either of us made, I think we both allowed too much anger/annoyance and general unpleasantness to creep into our posts, and that in some ways made the points seem more like angry assertions than logical thoughts as well as making them less clear, and that is dissapointing because we are both better than that. (Emotion colouring posts is fine , but I don't think we should let it take over as much as it did.)

 

Without the defensiveness that was clouding my previous reply and the overstatedness of your original post I can clearly see that my response had the same issues of over-assuredness and unpleasantness. I think when I referred to "your bias" I was referring to how you seemed to only be looking at things from the one angle with the assumption that you were correct (and that I was spiked). Something that I strived to avoid in my initial post, but also failed at when I responded to you. As a result of my own bias and frustration/tiredness/defensiveness (and some annoyance) I didn't give your points as much credit as they deserved and judged it more harshly than it deserved, and I operated too strongly on the assumption that the spiked think the way I do. An assumption that I should have been more hesitant to make. (I still feel strongly that they must be/have intelligent and experienced players, but that doesn't mean they think like me.)

 

 

I'm not trying to be contrary here; I'm actually curious: Have the spiked tried any gambits of this caliber?  I don't have that much experience being spiked, but both times all I did was try to avoid suspicion while trying to cast suspicion in other places.  Sometimes I had plans that included which order we would kill people, but nothing as elaborate as this.  Has something like this worked before?  Because if so, I'm extremely impressed.

You and I both think very differently as villagers and as spiked it seems, and I should have been more open to other viewpoints before instead of assuming that I was right based on their success so far. I think it varies considerably depending on the spiked team, we have definitely had occasions in the games I have played where the spiked have tried complicated gambits, ones that some people might call foolhardy. They haven't always worked of course, but some have. It has been ~6 months since I last played though so to give proper detail on any I'd have to go back and reread them. Personally as a spiked at this point in time I think I would very likely gamble on their being no remaining seekers and I would probably be trying to use smoking offensively, but I can understand that others would not.

 

So how to conclude; we think a bit differently about things, we both had some valid points but we both made some mistakes in how we posted them. I do still think you're spiked, (and I'm guessing that your opinion on my spikeyness hasn't changed over-much either ). But I don't harbour you any shred of ill-will, and I apologize for my own mistakes

 

Heh, maybe I spent too long having a rather large portion of my detailed discussion with Wilson, she tends to come up with the same kind of complicated/devious things I've been talking about so that could have caused some confirmation bias.

 

 

Why are we saying that Weiry could be a false positive, when they would have had to know on Night 5 who Sarco was going to Sooth in order to block it?

They couldn't have chosen a target for the smoking gambit with any certainty, though they could probably narrow down the list of people likely to be manipulated a reasonably way depending on how much information they had. I think this possibility is now getting more attention/discussion than it deserves, I wanted to bring it up as I think it is possible and (when I'm thinking clearly) I like to consider things from multiple angles.

 

 

I'd also like to know who knew Hreo's Role, other than Mailliw and Claincy, because I am pretty sure that one of those people is Spiked. Did Hreo really not share that with people, just in case something might happen?

Hero doesn't trust people lightly, and I think in case one of us was spiked he didn't want any of us to know who everyone else he trusted was. Hero told me that he was in connection with both (very likely village) soothers, but he didn't tell me if they knew his role or not so I don't know for certain if they knew or not. I wish I did though, because the odds that one of the 4 of us is spiked are good. If the spiked have a seeker that probability is lower though still entirely possible. But we don't know if they do or not. I kinda wish whoever the other two are they would come forward, though I can understand their desire to stay anonymous. If I had been forced to guess I would have guessed you and Sarc as the other two though. As I think I already said, the message where Hero told me that:

-4 people knew his role (or should be near certain)

-that he suspected others might have guessed

-that he was in contact with both soothers

-that he was targeting Weiry

-and that he wouldn't be surprised if he was killed that night;

was the last message he sent me before dying.

 

For now, I still think Newan is spiked (though I'll admit to being less certain than before), so my vote will stay there for now, but I'll be on *very* briefly in the morning and I'll change my vote then if necessary to ensure the spiked don't change our final target. Aside from that I may be online and have a chance to read some stuff but I won't have the opportunity to post again till past the end of the cycle, the same is going to happen next cycle as well but at least that's night. :/

[Wyrmhero]

So, let's look at this again. Why was Weiry Smoked and Lurched? Well, the Lurching makes some sense, since Sarco painted a bit of a target on him, but at the same time, if I was Spiked, I'd have expected the Village to try to lynch him, see what could be drawn out by people. Admittedly though, we've been terrible at lynching the people we really suspect, so let's disregard that. So Weiry's either a Villager or Spiked, and they want to either save him for the next lynch to take him out instead (perhaps throw suspicion on him as well to seem more Village), or they want to distract us again. This doesn't tell us much, but I'd be a bit doubtful that they'd save a Villager like that at the moment - Not discounting that Weiry could be a Lurcher himself. But, as I say, this isn't damning evidence.

 

So let's look at the Smoking reason. I don't think that the Spiked would randomly attempt to Smoke Weiry. There's just no reason for them to do that or for Sarco to Sooth his vote. If anything, I would've expected Sarco to go for one of the people who's spoken a lot and voted a lot more. Unless the Spiked knew he was going to do so, it's just too coincidental. As a gambit, it's nonsensical unless both Sarco and the Smoker are Spiked, which we know isn't true (or is highly unlikely). So, the question then becomes 'If Weiry is Spiked, why was he Smoked rather than a more active player?'

 

Putting these two points together, the question is - Why is Weiry so important for the Spiked to protect? Why was he Smoked AND Lurched? The Lurching makes sense, as I say, but the Smoking does not when we consider the information at hand. Smoking tends to be done on players who are catching peoples' eyes, or are experienced players, and up until last Night, Weiry was neither. There must be an additional reason for the Spiked to protect him above others.

 

So, my hypothesis is this: Weiry is the Spiked Mistborn. We must be prepared for him to be a Thug today.

 

Following on from the Spiked still using Smoking defensively, there are two possibilities. One, they haven't considered using it offensively, or two, they are worried that there is still a Seeker in the Village. They may in fact not even have a Seeker, but this seems unlikely due to how they've been hitting people.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Unodus]

Well, I'm convinced.

 

It is clear that Weiry (sorry Weiry :[ ) has been lurched and smoked (Wait, who originally claimed Weiry was smoked? I think I missed that... x.x)

 

The only way this scenario could happen is if Weiry was working with someone- and given that we know a certain mischievous group already, we can assume this group is the spiked.

 

Unless Weiry cares to reveal who he was working with- that is the only conclusion that can be drawn.

If another possibility does exist, then I'll happily retract my vote :V 
 

Edited January 19, 2015 by Unodus

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'd also like to know who knew Hreo's Role, other than Mailliw and Claincy, because I am pretty sure that one of those people is Spiked. Did Hreo really not share that with people, just in case something might happen?

I've already looked into that. Sarcomere knew, but none of those three knew who the fourth man was. So whoever it was has escaped.

 

I think we have a big enough Gap now. The Spiked would have to reveal themselves by all voting for newan in order to save Riew now.

 

WeiryWriter(7): Sarcomere, Peng, Newan, Joe <2>, Mckeedee, Wyrm <2>, Unodus

Newan(2): Wyrm <1>, Seonid, Claincy <2>

Seonid(1): Mailliw 

Pifferdoo(1): Panda 

Peng(0): Claincy <1>

Mailliw(0): Joe <1>

Claincy(0): Wyrm