Mid-Range Game 4: The Alethi War of Unification

[luckat she/her]

​It just occurred to me that the Spies could use the Lighteye's vote to lynch a player. There is most likely at least 1 Lighteye Spy, if not 2, and the Lighteye vote is the perfect anonymous way for them to conveniently kill someone, if we happened to have a tie in the votes. Unfortunately, I cannot think of a bullet-proof plan to avert this. Anyone have ideas?

 

I'd say the best idea is for all of the Lighteyes to use their vote, or for all of you to decide in the thread who to vote for with it. Unless there are two Lighteye Spies in the same pair, they won't be able to get control of the vote as long as the Good Lighteyes use the Lighteye vote, even if it's not coordinated. It will be nothing more than chance if Lighteyes vote for the same person separately, and that would be as likely to be influenced by the Good Lighteyes as the Evil ones. If you want it to be very unlikely for the Spies to manipulate the vote, then either we should make a large barrier in public votes or we can try to get all of the Lighteyes to vote together. (Unless there's three or more Lighteye Spies, that would give the majority to the Good team.) As it is, I don't think that trying for a tie is a good idea unless we can get all of the votes on everyone to 0 (and even then, that might not be best), since that would mean we would have to hope for a tie in the Lighteye vote, which isn't something we can depend on, and ties don't give us much to work with anyway.

[Metacognition he/him]

Just wanted to say, that a good plan to keep the Lighteyes vote from being used to get someone lynched would be for all of us to agree on someone that we don't suspect for the cycle and have all the lighteyes put their secret vote on them. If anyone votes for that person, then they'll likely be trying to instigate a lynch and should be suspect. This way, we know exactly where that vote should be and if it goes elsewhere, then we'll know that the lighteyes didn't follow the plan. 

 

True, this means that the person that they agree on will automatically have one vote against them, but it's better than trying to guess what each lighteyes did with their vote. I gladly volunteer myself for it, if Araris would be willing to remove the vote from me. My reasoning is that I'm typically a large target anyways, so if the spies wish to out themselves to get rid of me, let them do so in public so we can get something out of it!

[little wilson she/her]

Just wanted to say, that a good plan to keep the Lighteyes vote from being used to get someone lynched would be for all of us to agree on someone that we don't suspect for the cycle and have all the lighteyes put their secret vote on them. If anyone votes for that person, then they'll likely be trying to instigate a lynch and should be suspect. This way, we know exactly where that vote should be and if it goes elsewhere, then we'll know that the lighteyes didn't follow the plan. 

 

True, this means that the person that they agree on will automatically have one vote against them, but it's better than trying to guess what each lighteyes did with their vote. I gladly volunteer myself for it, if Araris would be willing to remove the vote from me. My reasoning is that I'm typically a large target anyways, so if the spies wish to out themselves to get rid of me, let them do so in public so we can get something out of it!

 

I really like this idea. I'm all for it. Seems like the best way to account for that vote and keep it from being misused. Especially since, while there's no doubt a light-eyed spy, I highly doubt there are more than two. And we have 5 lighteyes, so there shouldn't even be a tie, assuming all the lighteyes use the secret vote.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Eoldren. Good RP is nice, but actual discussion is better. I would like Jasnah to show up as well, since her habit of lurking can be quite an annoyance. 
 

I like the idea of choosing a public target for the Lighteyes to vote for. I'm also willing to be the one voted for, if Alv takes his vote off of me. 

 

All votes so far:

Mek (mckeedee) (0): Reihmer (Renegade)

Meller (Meta) (1): Alinel (Araris)

Marand (Mailliw) (0): Norlav (Alv)

Kenara (wilson) (1): Jost (Joe)

Jain (1): Aonaran

Kaddar (Kas) (1): Reihmer

Tal (luckat) (0): Kenara

Ace (macen) (0): Kenara

Jost (1): Ace

Damon (jasnah damonodred) (2): Kenara, Odysa

Eoldren (1): Marand

 

Votes in play:

Meller (1): Alinel

Kenara (1): Jost

Jain (1): Aonaran

Kaddar (1): Reihmer

Jost (1): Ace

Damon (2): Kenara, Odysa

Eoldren (1): Marand

Edited December 1, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Mailliw73 he/him]

You'd be a bit more wary if you had played in the first couple games. Aether...

Edited December 1, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Would anyone create a false list?

 

Uh oh. Now I have to check your list.

 

 

It was just used to manipulate. Don't worry, I went through and checked everything even though Aonar made a list earlier.

[Alvron]

Marand, your list has a mistake.    Alinel isn't Aonar it's Araris.

Aether would be shocked at such a mistake.

Edited December 1, 2014 by Alvron

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Mal, your list has a mistake.      Alinel isn't Aonar it's Araris.

Aether would be shocked at such a mistake.

 

That's what I meant. Its updated with that name change and your retraction.

Unless it was intentional.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

"All of her papers pertain to the meeting. It doesn't look like any of them Deviated from what she was supposed to be writing." Sani Finished putting Brightlady Kenara's Papers in the correct Order. "So unless she took papers with her to destroy, she hasn't been in communication with anyone else." 

 

Jost frowned. One lead gone. All the other Brightlords had been present, unable to send messages. So a Darkeye must have done it. "Sister, look through the records. Find any odd pairs. Darkeyes who stick out in similar ways." She raised an eyebrow, but moved over to the lists of Darkeyes in the camps. Two of the Blackthorn's Soldiers watched them as they investigated the command tent. Highprince Dalinar had allowed Jost to search the tent, but not alone. This fiasco had made Dalinar suspicious of even him. Jost would find these Spies. He would.

 

"Ah, found some. There's a couple of Horneaters in the camp. Joined at the same time, but separately. They haven't visibly interacted, but they're from a different Culture, so they could be able to read and write without others knowing." She handed over their files.

 

Wok, A visiting Horneater Princess, and Alinel, a Horneater Exile. Good cover stories. "Alright then. Lets follow up on this." He turned sharply, and led his sister out of the tent.

Another RP Vote, this time for two people who haven't been voted for yet. I'd vote for Jasnah, but She's often Inactive like this.

 

Aether was one of the first players. He was also one of the first Eliminators. He expertly Crafted lists that convinced people of the guilt of innocents, but he never said they were guilty. He was very good.

Edited December 2, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Hey, I saw your posts Meta and agree that is a good plan. We might need to be careful if the lighteyes start dying off though, since the vote could be more easily manipulated by a couple spies.

[little wilson she/her]

Some people are a lot more suspicious than others, just saying. Namely, someone with a certain demonic bear. I am not saying anything, but really? What are the odds that you are still good? Not saying anything, but call what I see. Never mind. Just speculation, as I said in visible text above. 

 

The generator loves some people and it hates others. Maill had I think 8 games before he was evil. On the other hand, Joe was evil the first 3 games he played. Jain's reaction indicates to me that he's probably Dalinar-aligned. That's not a guarantee, but his distress seemed genuine for what he's displayed in the past. There's a chance he could've done that because he knows if he didn't express dissatisfaction at once again being good we would suspect him of being evil (and now that I've brought that up, he'll have to keep that in mind for when he eventually does get to be an eliminator. (You're welcome, Jain )), and that's why I'm not saying he's certainly Dalinar-aligned. But until he does something more suspicious, I'm not going to give into gambler's fallacy.

 

And since my vote on Jasnah was solely to get her talking and now we've got a second vote on her for apparently the same purpose (which I don't like), that seems rather redundant. So Jasnah. I can't think of who I want to hear from right now. Except for Ash and Eoldren, but Joe and Maill already voted for them. So I'll just sit back and wait.

[Eolhondras he/him]

Eoldren. Good RP is nice, but actual discussion is better. 

 

 

I'm quite fresh to this, but i will try to raise some relevant points.

 

I had just a couple of minor clarification points surrounding what information is provided when someone is saved. Namely whether we are told what role saved someone i.e. surgeon or guardsman as this may make it easier to target specific targets in spy groups. For example if one had a surgeon and someone we know to be a spy is saved, we know they will likely be saved again next time around. Whereas if it is a guard they're fair game. This probably is a bit of a pipe dream, but I'd ask anyway. 

The other clarification is surrounding guards, where the explanation for them only being able to protect one is due to injury. In a war camp, if someone were to become incapacitated, that would be widely known. The question therefore is, will it in this case?

[Eolhondras he/him]

Just wanted to say, that a good plan to keep the Lighteyes vote from being used to get someone lynched would be for all of us to agree on someone that we don't suspect for the cycle and have all the lighteyes put their secret vote on them. If anyone votes for that person, then they'll likely be trying to instigate a lynch and should be suspect. This way, we know exactly where that vote should be and if it goes elsewhere, then we'll know that the lighteyes didn't follow the plan. 

 

True, this means that the person that they agree on will automatically have one vote against them, but it's better than trying to guess what each lighteyes did with their vote. I gladly volunteer myself for it, if Araris would be willing to remove the vote from me. My reasoning is that I'm typically a large target anyways, so if the spies wish to out themselves to get rid of me, let them do so in public so we can get something out of it!

I have a few problems with this plan in that perhaps the spies wouldn't need to out themselves. By agreeing on someone that you don't suspect, that gives the spies a relatively safe target for assassination, meaning they won't need to publicly lynch the person, rather just play it cool and wait. This becomes especially dangerous if all three (I'm assuming three) spy teams think this way, meaning a guaranteed kill on that person if they are not saved. 

 

Beyond that, it may only be a short term strategy, if a few light eyed innocents are killed early, or you run out of guinea pigs.

 

No plan is going to be perfect, and I would agree that this is the best so far (I certainly don't have a better one) just a couple of points to think on before we set a plan in action

[Aonar he/him]

Sorry to add another note of dissonance here, Meta, but I'm not sure what I think about your plan. I have a few concerns I'd like to raise, including the ones Eolhondras already went over. I'd also prefer to go over it in parts, if that's alright with you.
 

Just wanted to say, that a good plan to keep the Lighteyes vote from being used to get someone lynched would be for all of us to agree (1) on someone that we don't suspect for the cycle (2) and have all the lighteyes put their secret vote on them. If anyone votes for that person, (3) then they'll likely be trying to instigate a lynch and should be suspect. (3) This way, we know exactly where that vote should be and if it goes elsewhere, then we'll know that the lighteyes didn't follow the plan. 
 
True, this means that the person that they agree on will automatically have one vote against them, but it's better than trying to guess what each lighteyes did with their vote. I gladly volunteer myself for it, if Araris would be willing to remove the vote from me. My reasoning is that I'm typically a large target anyways, (4) so if the spies wish to out themselves to get rid of me, let them do so in public so we can get something out of it! (4)

(Emphasis and parenthesis mine.)

 

1. First real problem with the plan. Unanimous agreement. When combined with (3), (punishment for opposing views) this clause nearly makes the plan untenable. Even a simple majority is going to be difficult to accomplish (there is a good chance we'd spend most of the cycle just getting that far), and still suffers from the same problems as unanimous agreement. Approaches like this strongly encourage group-think, (which is an actual thing) and any particularly powerful voices, *cough*Meta*cough* could very well shape the opinions of the whole to the point where they can do whatever they want.

 

2. Second problem is determining who exactly is the least suspected. If anything, people who are flying under the radar should be watched especially closely. Giving them a free pass where anyone who calls them out will become immediate targets is just silly. Choosing someone who has gathered more attention is no better. Really, saying that anyone is cleared enough in the minds of the majority that they cannot be called out with a vote in the thread in nonsense. The only time that would ever be practical is when a Shardblade has been found, but there's a decent (exactly eight percent) chance that that won't happen next cycle. Or the next. Or the next after that.

 

3. This is the part of the plan I take the greatest issue with. The very idea is ludicrous. Adding a clause that punishes contrary opinion (even indirectly) prevents progress from ever being made. Were the spies to get control of this plan, this is the clause that would allow them to build up momentum until there is no way for us to stop them. (Think the Barty incident in LG1.) 

 

4. I'm not sure if you're being serious, but your logic isn't at its strongest here. You are typically a target, yes. However, no Spy would be so blatant as to try and force a lynch on you in the thread, with a plan in place to make it obvious. Even if you plan on placing a protection on the person who has been decided to be innocent, that just tells them exactly where the protection will be ahead of time. This isn't even mentioning the fact that you're a terrible subject, given that you designed the plan, and putting you in a position of influence when you might be evil is a... questionable, decision, to say the least.

 

While no better plan has been suggested (and I doubt one will be) the execution of this plan is going to have to be played by ear, and run largely on a cycle by cycle basis. 

Edited December 2, 2014 by Aonar Faileas

[Metacognition he/him]

I really wanted to try to do this in RP, as an added challenge to myself, but you guys bring up valid points, so I want to address them with as much clarity as possible. 

 

First, this isn't to say that the person chosen is actually an innocent, just that people think it is unlikely that the person is a spy at that time and considering that we have more than one spy out there, taking one person off the table late in the cycle isn't going to really hurt our options. Typically, closer to the end of the day (which is when this kind of thing would be decided), we have a consensus of a few people that are on the chopping block, so we just pick someone that isn't on that list. I'll give an example cycle to give you an idea:

 

It's 2nd cycle and after 36 hours, Reihmer, Wok, and Torwel (these names were chosen at random, I don't necessarily suspect any of them any more than anyone else) each have 2-3 votes on them, with a scattering of people with 1 vote on them and a few people with none. More than likely, this means that one of those three are likely to get lynched without something drastic happening, like a watcher who for some reason decided to wait till the end of the day to speak up. The target for the lighteyes' vote would then go to someone that doesn't have a vote on them, since it's unlikely that they are being considered for this cycle and thus keeping it from being used on one of the three that we're debating between

 

The plan isn't to clear anyone in particular and the target of the lighteyes' vote should be subject to change throughout the cycle. I'm not saying that calling someone out that we've determined to be a possible target for the lighteyes' vote in and of itself is terms for suspicion. As you guys pointed out, no one is above suspicion. That said, my point (#3 on Aonar's list) about someone being suspect in that case is if we have come to a consensus about who the target should be and then, late in the day, someone comes in with a vote for that person when it is unlikely that we'd be able to change the target of the lighteyes vote. It is not about punishing those who disagree with the target before that time. After we have picked someone though and it's late in the cycle, they already know that that person will likely have a vote on them and are likely using that to try to get that person lynched or to save someone else that is on the chopping block. While this is unlikely, as it is blatant, by putting the idea already out there, it eliminates the excuse that someone didn't know that such an action would be considered suspicious. The entire plan is about eliminating options for the Spies to wiggle out through. 

 

That leads me to my second point. One of my favorite tactics is to try to take away options from the Evil Faction. They either have to play by our rules or out themselves in the process of doing something that is more favorable to them. So, no Eoldren, this likely won't net us any lighteye spies unless they felt that it was worth it to them to go against what we want them to do, but it also takes away the option of them being able to use the lighteyes' vote to help get someone lynched without us finding out about it. 

 

Finally, I don't understand why you guys think that the "innocent" would deserve protection. That's not the idea. As you pointed out at the very end, Aonaran (and as I've hopefully clarified here), this is a fluid plan that would change every cycle. It's not that the person is actually an innocent (unless we do know of someone, like with the shardbearer and even then, I'd be hesitant to put the lighteyes' vote on them, in case of any voting shenanigans by the spies to get the shardbearer killed), just that they're not up for the lynch that cycle, so there would be no need to necessarily put any protection on them. The protection roles would still have free reign to use their abilities where they felt best. And it wouldn't be an "easy kill" for the spies, as we never cleared that person, we're just keeping the lighteyes' vote away from influencing the rest of our voting until we actually want it to become a factor. 

 

So, hopefully that explains the plan a little better. In my opinion, you're all guilty until proven innocent and putting the lighteyes' vote on someone for a cycle isn't going to change that for me!

[Jasnah Damodred]

Sorry everyone, couldn't check a lot due to IRL issues, which is also why I have no plan whatsoever. I don't think this will go as badly as the ones before, though, I had time a few days ago, and I analyzed some older games, so I won't make those rookie mistakes I used to make again.

I don't like voting with little to no information, so no vote for now.

Edit: Did HTML stuff yesterday, and I'm now on mobile, so I accidentally used the HTML color tag instead of .

Edited December 2, 2014 by Jasnah Damodred

[Kasimir he/him]

Kaddar

[Metacognition he/him]

I'm tempted to let this play out, since you're effectively claiming Wit and are trying to make Reihmer lose his role if he has one. That's the only reason I can see for this. 

 

Instead, I'll vote Damon to block you, as I think you're going for the secondary win condition for Wit, but I'm going to keep a close eye on this all the same.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Metacognition

[twelfthrootoftwo]

After hearing both sides, I'm inclined to support Meta's plan. The lighteyes' target essentially becomes a safe place to store the extra vote; they don't really get extra power or influence.

 

The issue that hasn't been addressed is how (and when) to choose the target. If we need to spend time debating it each cycle, then we lose either time for discussion (increasing the chance our target would otherwise have come under reasonable suspicion), or time for the lighteyes to get their votes in (increasing the chance for shenanigans or non-votes, potentially making the whole exercise pointless). I considered suggesting a preset semi-random system, to take the politics out, but that would lose the flexibility.

 

How would we choose - acclamation, tertiary public vote, first to call?

[Kasimir he/him]

No, I just thought you should know by now that I hate ostensible poke votes that don't actually move. Reihmer put what was ostensibly a poke vote on me. Fine. I gave him activity. However, his poke vote was not responsive to my actions.

I've certainly done that in the past as an Eliminator.
 
So I'm very annoyed and calling him out on it. If he doesn't budge his vote, mine won't move. Sod that. Let's see how much he wants to gamble with the 1/19th chance that I am actually Wit.

 

Edited to add: And of course if he's Wit, putting a vote on him to see why he's not being responsive to evidence and therefore not actually putting a proper poke vote is just going to play into his hands. So no. I'm not going to do that. To reiterate: either it is a poke vote, in which case I'd like a retraction, as I've clearly responded, or it isn't a poke vote, in which case I would like to hear the reasons for the vote in the first place, as well as the reasons my posting hasn't been satisfactory. Either condition being fulfilled by Ren will be sufficient for me to remove my vote.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Kasimir

[Metacognition he/him]

Within minutes of the cycle ending? 

 

....Wait, I got my timezones confused. There should still be 12 hours left. Okay, retract Damon. 

Edited December 2, 2014 by Metacognition

[Kasimir he/him]

...Doesn't the cycle end in 12 more hours? Because my impression was, it's 48 hours and it started at 4am my time. It's almost 4pm my time now.

 

Edit: On a less irate note, I'd like to confirm if we Lighteyes are on board with the plan to toss our secret votes onto Meta, at least for this cycle.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Kasimir

[Metacognition he/him]

Yeah, I corrected for such. As I said, I was confused by the timezones. My apologies. 

[Wyrmhero he/him]

There are indeed 10 hours left in the Cycle

 

More clarifications:

 

• Actions that affect a player that can be seen by a Watchman are Role abilities, Shardblade kills, and Sabotages. This is regardless of whether or not they die in the battle, or if they are saved by a Guardsman etc.
• Surgeon Roles will save someone before the Guardsman is needed. If two Guardsman protect the same person, then one is randomly selected to save them.
• The order of actions is Officers, Scout, Watchman, Surgeon, Guardsmen, Sabotages, Squad Leader, Votes (including Lighteyed Vote), Shardblades, Messenger, Lynches, Lighteyed Combat-skip, Combat. Note that a Watchman can see the Officer roleblocking still, it's just that Watchmen can be roleblocked by them first.
• A Scout cannot be Sabotaged when they use their ability. It does not count as skipping a Combat.
• A Spy who kills the Wit via Sabotage loses nothing. A Spy that first-votes for the Wit will lose their Role, and if they are Lighteyed, they become Darkeyed and can be targeted by Squad Leaders or Officers, and they cannot use the Lighteyed vote or skip a battle. They will however retain their doc access and their ability to Sabotage.
• If a Shardbearer kills the Wit, then they will also be treated as Darkeyed Spearman, despite keeping their Shardblade.
• Players Sabotaged during a Highstorm are carried through to the next Combat's list. Very dangerous if it happens to be a Battle the next Cycle .
• If Scouts use their Role on a Cycle they would be lynched, then it is indeed impossible to save them.
• If a player is both lynched and chosen from the possible-kill list in the same Cycle, then they will need two layers of protection to save them. The same is true of someone who is on the kill list multiple times during a Battle. Each 'death' uses up a protection attempt.
• Spies have an Eliminator doc per pair, and they do not know the identity of the other teams. When a Spy dies, their Spanreed will be randomly distributed to a player. The Spy and that player can then send messages through a new doc to each other, anonymously. It is possible for that player to be another Spy, or even to be the teammate themselves. It's not as if Dalinar knows who the Spies are .

Edited December 2, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Renegade he/him]

Oh yeah, forgot to do that earlier.    Kaddar.

 

Sorry about that, I was planning on removing my vote last night, but I ended up having to stay up really late to write an essay.  On that note, I'm not sure how much time I'm going to have available the next few days, so keep that in mind.