MR77: Cycle Four: Why Exe?

[|TJ| he/him]

Cycle 1 -> 

A strong point to note is that Grub's first vote was on Hoid was NOT a poke-vote. HOWEVER, Grub's 2nd vote (which was on Coder) WAS a poke-vote. Usually, people who poke-vote continue to do so, and people who vote with reason almost always never pivot to poke-votes, which is why I think this poke was a e/e interaction. 

This only grows stronger, because they move BACK to voting on suspicion for their 3rd vote which was on TUC. 

Now they mentioned "Coder was busy" when they shifted to TUC, when Coder did not mention anything of the sort, but they claimed that it was a 'ninja' and they didn't edit the post afterwards. 

Quote

"Grub called Qian active and you inactive when you had more posts than him.

I think that's just Grub messing up, and I don't like that a real e!read is forming on someone because grub said something not really correct about you and someone else.

I don't understand how your thought process went "Newbie messed up" too "So newbie and person the newbie was talking about must be elim"" - Coder

When an elim speaks so little, it is quite important to see what they choose to focus on, so this defence of Grub reads very weird from a not-so-active-seeming Coder. And this is quite a strong defence of someone this early into the game. Especially when either player had nothing to do with Coder. Further makes me lean e!Grub. Would also mention that this was in response to Myst, who ended up being the C1 night-kill. 

Cycle 2 -> 

Grub does item analysis. Inherently, I find this suspicious because this is the exact same thing I did to get village-read when I was getting some suspicion in the previous iteration of the game in which I was evil  (LG83)

Okay, so I've seen the possible e-slip comment from Illwei - she says it does not conflict with the story, but does not fit right how she wants it to ; fair. 

Cycle 3 ->

This post from Mint feels like they're setting up MLs on me and TUC. If TUC is village, I one-hundred-percent expect an elim to piggyback onto illwei's suspicion about the suspected e-slip and Mint would be my first choice. 

@Hoid Slayer, @coco.pudding @Stardust

There are quite a bit of connections between Coder and Grub. There are NO in-thread connections between TUC and Coder.

The ONLY reasoning for TUC is given as the weirdness given by illwei in which the accounts actually tallied but it just didn't feel right which was STILL Illwei's personal opinion. 

ed1t: 

15 minutes ago, Ascended Grubberfly said:

Guys I really think a TUC exe isn’t the best thing.

If you want a different train, I don’t like how TJ jumped on me when I tried to clear TUC.

yeah, this seems to be an elim wanting to get ahead of v!TUC / wanting to be on a different train from a teammate. 

if you feel that way about TUC, why are you suspecting me who feels the same way about them? do you want to vote mint with me?

Edited 7 hours ago by |TJ|

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

16 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Why not?

Why waste a key as an elim? It doesn’t benefit them at all if I get exed for TUC to die the next round. I say this scenario only makes sense with v!TUC.

And TJ, I voted Hoid on a suspicion, then poked Coder when I had no suspicions. I wanted more information. I &nbspassumed Coder was busy because he wasn’t active and I wanted to do something instead of wait for a response. 

[The Unknown Character he/him]

@|TJ|, @Ascended Grubberfly, I would be willing to switch to Mint.

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Character said:

@|TJ|, @Ascended Grubberfly, I would be willing to switch to Mint.

Are you suggesting they didn't protect Hoid? 

[The Unknown Character he/him]

1 minute ago, Ascended Grubberfly said:

Are you suggesting they didn't protect Hoid? 

Tbh, I know I'm not an elim, so anyone who's not me or Hoid is a better exe. There's multiple worlds where Mint is e. They could be protecting you, gambitting by not submitting the kill, or something else that I don't know.

Actually, Mint

[|TJ| he/him]

Mint11

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

20 minutes ago, Ascended Grubberfly said:

Why waste a key as an elim? It doesn’t benefit them at all if I get exed for TUC to die the next round. I say this scenario only makes sense with v!TUC.

Alright I literally went over this

Okay I don’t love the direction all this is going in

But I am willing to concede good points being made by TJ

I’m willing to help set up a tie between TUC and Mint, and see then whether any vote manip or hammering comes in to reveal an elim preference

I am not willing to entirely abandon the TUC train this quickly

Another pro to exeing TUC:

It serves to soft clear a lot of people for their passiveness to a C1 TUC train

@Archer VC please

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

21 hours ago, Mint11 said:

yeah good points

@Ascended Grubberfly @Stardust@Through the Living Hopper would any of you be willing to vote on TUC? I'm worried about elims manipulating votes with the VC so close

Yes, sorry, I've been busy. TUO

[The Unknown Character he/him]

My activity will be very spotty in the last three hours before rollover, so if we're going to do this we need to do it soon

[|TJ| he/him]

9 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

It serves to soft clear a lot of people for their passiveness to a C1 TUC train

Bro, there is no use of clearing people anymore. Best case scenario, it's 6-2 now, and it could very well be 5-3. 

If there is an ML and they get off a kill, it would be 4-2 (3-3) and Enmity = 3. Let us assume the aim would be to lie that they would be providing Favor, so they also get a second rebuke next cycle (an extra kill). If they have enough vote manip, then they win even without a majority, which is why we should treat this cycle as lylo. 

@Through the Living Hopper, you should see the above argument for e!Grub/e!Mint/v!TUC

 

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Character said:

My activity will be very spotty in the last three hours before rollover, so if we're going to do this we need to do it soon

same actually. 

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

Bro, there is no use of clearing people anymore. Best case scenario, it's 6-2 now, and it could very well be 5-3. 

If there is an ML and they get off a kill, it would be 4-2 (3-3) and Enmity = 3. Let us assume the aim would be to lie that they would be providing Favor, so they also get a second rebuke next cycle (an extra kill). If they have enough vote manip, then they win even without a majority, which is why we should treat this cycle as lylo. 

@Through the Living Hopper, you should see the above argument for e!Grub/e!Mint/v!TUC

 

Snap you’re right

Tragically, I don’t have the time from here to rollover to do an analysis

And I want TUC to die

@The Unknown Character, if you’d like to defend yourself, could you describe in as much detail as possible without exact quotes your PM with Coder?

If anyone else was PMed with Coder, please describe your PMs as well, optimally after TUC has made his statement

[The Unknown Character he/him]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Snap you’re right

Tragically, I don’t have the time from here to rollover to do an analysis

And I want TUC to die

@The Unknown Character, if you’d like to defend yourself, could you describe in as much detail as possible without exact quotes your PM with Coder?

If anyone else was PMed with Coder, please describe your PMs as well, optimally after TUC has made his statement

I'll try, but I'm pretty busy right now. Will be working on it when I can

[|TJ| he/him]

Posting Illwei's explanation of the situation - 

Quote

Coder in his opening PM to me mentioned that he had heard I was a returning player. This was before he popped into thread the first time, probably very shortly before he did he sent me the PM. 

I asked him where he heard that, because immediately I had a hard time imagining myself come up in conversation in a PM, He had not been in thread to see TUC's post about everyone, and even if I did come up in conversation...he didn't seem very...conversational? it had to have been a direct ask. 

I then asked him about it, and he said that it had come up in conversation with TUC, as he had PMs with TUC and Hoid. I had also said something else in the PM unrelated and he didn't respond to that part. 

Then when I asked TUO, who responded in thread without prompting (to his merit), he, well, I mean you can see the responses. It was basically him saying Coder asked him about me, which, while not completely conflicting with Coder's story...doesn't really match how I truly want it to. 

@Hoid Slayer, what was your PM with Coder like?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

15 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Posting Illwei's explanation of the situation - 

@Hoid Slayer, what was your PM with Coder like?

I’d prefer to refrain from that until TUC has spoken, so that he can’t just pop in and say his was basically the same as mine

What I do find interesting and hadn’t realized is that Coder’s only PMs were with me and TUC. So if TUC is evil, his only PM was with me

I must admit, I am beginning to doubt

Yet at the same time, I don’t want to allow doubt to enter my head at this point in the game, especially when I don’t see a clear better option

I don’t think TUC blocking Grub and then me surviving/no NK working against Grub when Coco also saved me

I think I’m gonna leave my vote where it is for now, unless TUC is very convincing

[|TJ| he/him]

6 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I don’t think TUC blocking Grub and then me surviving/no NK working against Grub when Coco also saved me

You mean Mint saved you. 

Bro, you are ignoring bigger evidence and hyper-focusing on the illwei issue. 

how about you shoot TUC with shardblade next cycle?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

You mean Mint saved you. 

Bro, you are ignoring bigger evidence and hyper-focusing on the illwei issue. 

how about you shoot TUC with shardblade next cycle?

Yeah, Mint, mixed em up

Look, how about TUC responds and then I make a choice?

[coco.pudding she/they]

8 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

when Coco also saved me

What is this referring to?

The tie idea is an interesting one. I’m not sure what the votes are atm but I could be willing to switch to facilitate that. I think it could make sense to see who the elims decide to save. Although if this is lylo maybe that’s a bad idea…

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

5 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

What is this referring to?

Nothing, I made a mistake

Don’t switch your vote

[|TJ| he/him]

Noted: Grub's hesitancy to switch to Mint. 

@coco.pudding, read my case on Grub/Mint

[Mint11 she/her]

okay I don't have time to devote to the game today tbh. so I will fully admit to not reading TJ's new post with as much attention as it deserves. but since he's trying to ex me, I want to respond

I feel like TJ has made a couple of strong statements this game based on small details. and they are interesting threads to pull on. but not at all definitive enough to justify strong reads

this starts in C1 with the vote on wahr

and then from this cycle:

Quote

I think Grub's reaction here is pointing towards them being elim. I think a villager in their position would be a lot more suspicious towards TUC's claim and they would push back instead. This pacifying approach they are taking towards TUC is elim-behaviour imo. 

we're pretty late in the game. voting someone on the vibes of a single post during the current cycle makes sense C1, maybe C2. not here unless you're trying to pivot away from something

Quote

When an elim speaks so little, it is quite important to see what they choose to focus on,

is it? it might also just be an elim trying to maintain a minimum level of activity. it would also be wild for an elim who barely posts to use the little posting they do to link themselves to teammates

also if we count C1, this is the second time TJ has tried to move the ex away from TUC

Quote

The ONLY reasoning for TUC is given as the weirdness given by illwei in which the accounts actually tallied but it just didn't feel right which was STILL Illwei's personal opinion. 

I normally wouldn't have given so much weight to illwei's slight sense of uneasiness. but that slight sense of uneasiness was bang on with coder. so I'm going with it

 

Quote

edit1: firstly I don't believe this claim

also @|TJ|... why? why were you immediately so sure earlier on that I was lying and TUc was village?

 

I really hope y'all don't break the TUC train. it'd be unfortunate for the elims to sweep in with a village ex after we talled about exing TUC for days now

I saw mention above of doing a TJ ex instead of a TUC one. I'm not sure how this makes sense, because in my mind e!TUC implicates e!TJ. if TUC is village, then the case for TJ being elim becomes weaker

 

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

how about you shoot TUC with shardblade next cycle?

hoid can only do this if he isn't nk'ed

 

I'm going to hopefully off for the rest of the day now bc I really should not be online

[Archer he/him]

Vote Count

TUC: Hoid, Hopper, Mint, Coco, Stardust

TJ: Grub

Mint: TUC, TJ

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

I’m not liking how buddy TJ and TUC are…

Im keeping my vote on TJ.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Mint11 said:

we're pretty late in the game. voting someone on the vibes of a single post during the current cycle makes sense C1, maybe C2. not here unless you're trying to pivot away from something

you are taking away a LOT of context behind the post. this is grub reacting to someone who has essentially sentenced them to death and I believe their reaction is very important to their alignment, and cannot be simply whittled down to a 'single post'. 

7 minutes ago, Mint11 said:

also @|TJ|... why? why were you immediately so sure earlier on that I was lying and TUc was village?

TUC has been fully in his village meta. I don't see TUC being linked it ANYONE else whereas you can be linked to Grub, and a team of Grub/Mint makes perfect sense. 

@Hoid Slayer, this is another point. Who do you think is teamed up with Hoid? Star? Hopper? Both of them make way way less sense that Grub/Mint. 

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

38 minutes ago, Ascended Grubberfly said:

I’m not liking how buddy TJ and TUC are…

Im keeping my vote on TJ.

We’re not exeing TJ today

If you wanna kill in that pool, vote TUC

31 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

@Hoid Slayer, this is another point. Who do you think is teamed up with Hoid? Star? Hopper? Both of them make way way less sense that Grub/Mint. 

I assume you mean who I think is teamed with TUC

Last cycle I did some process of elimination, and I would continue that

I’d also look into you at this point, tbh

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

We’re not exeing TJ today

If you wanna kill in that pool, vote TUC

TJ TUC

Yeah, it seems I've come full circle on TUC.