Quick Fix 75: The Tower's Pressure

[Aeternum]

Hi.

The chances of me reading the entire game through rn is probably close to zero on a 24/0 cycle timer. Maybe later.

I see a lot of names I don't recognize, so if you don't know me, I play a lot offsite, which means I have a lot of expectations that don't fit with SE, and I use a lot of confusing terminology. Feel free to ask me about any of it if it comes up, but I will try my best to keep it out of the game since people get annoyed with it.

1 hour ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

That actually makes a lot of sense, I'm probably getting tricked, so I'll switch my vote

So back to the random number for my vote! 4! Aeternum

Why are you random voting on *checks notes* Day 5, with an elim flipped? It's been five days and you still have no reads?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

11 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Why are you random voting on *checks notes* Day 5, with an elim flipped? It's been five days and you still have no reads?

We've established this, they're an elim and the main contender for the exe is there teammate. 

I am half joking. But only half.

[Kasimir he/him]

57 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I see a lot of names I don't recognize, so if you don't know me, I play a lot offsite, which means I have a lot of expectations that don't fit with SE, and I use a lot of confusing terminology. Feel free to ask me about any of it if it comes up, but I will try my best to keep it out of the game since people get annoyed with it.

I'm not going to interrupt what you're doing wrt Penguin, but things you might want to know (feel free to ignore if you worry this is misleading, though the others should be able to call me out if misleading) :

• This game has a higher than usual % of new-to-SE players, including Penguin, Triple B, YEVAD (whom you replaced), Demon (dead now), Tinwatcher, Null, Aster. Some of them play mafia IRL, e.g. Penguin, Spirit. I play with Aster on a Discord server.
• There is no NK. The Elims can Soothe all the votes cast by one player per cycle. On C1, this was TOW (who voted TJ, flipped Elim.) On C2, this was Triple B, who had first voted Striker, then TUN. On C3, this was Spirit, who voted Aster, then TUN, then TJ. On C4, this was Null, who voted TUN, Striker, Spirit, then Null (did not vote last cycle, therefore auto-selfvoted.) Because votes on TUN were Soothed a total of three times, some players feel this is E!indicative for TUN.
• The Elims have a oneshot power allowing them to prevent the top train from flipping. The second-top train goes over instead. This power has not yet been burned.
• TJ flipped Elim on C3, after we failed to exe him on C1 and C2. You can refer to the spreadsheet here for voting records, but noteworthy points are that Polly, TOW, KSauce (flipped Village C1) all voted TJ on C1; on C2, TUN was first voter on TJ, followed by Striker and then Polly. At EoD, TJ votes on RBM (a train I started) to save himself, Striker eventually pivots at three minutes or so to vote RBM as well. TJ survives, and is finally exed C3. The oneshot was not used.
• Last cycle had a whole bunch of trains and it's too much a clusterchull to summarise, but here's Jo's vc for it with all lead trains highlighted:

6 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

BigBadBagsworth [ 2 ]: IcedOutPenguin(T3), BigBadBagsworth (T4)
KelsierApologist [ 3 ]: Kasimir(T1), |TJ| (T1), KelsierApologist (T4)
The Unknown Order [ 3 ]:  Negative_Null (T1), BigBadBagsworth (T2), Lord Spirit (T2), StrikerEZ(T4), Lord Spirit (T4)
YEVAD [ 3 ]: YEVAD(T1, T2, T3)
IcedOutPenguin [ 2 ]: The Unknown Order (T1), ThatOneWorldhopper (T3)
ThatOneWorldhopper [ 2 ]: IcedOutPenguin (T1), Kasimir (T4)
Negative_Null [ 1 ]: Negative_Null (T4)
Lord Spirit [ 1 ]: Negative_Null (T3)
Tinwatcher [ 3 ]: Tinwatcher (T2), Aster, (T3), Tinwatcher (T4)
THE DEMON [ 4 ]: The Demon (T1, T2, T3), The Unknown Order (T3)
StrikerEZ [ 3 ]: BigBadBagsworth (T1), ThatOneWorldhopper (T2), Negative Null (T2), The Unknown Order (T4)
Aster [ 4 ]: Lord Spirit (T1), Aster (T2, T4), IcedOutPenguin (T4), ThatOneWorldhopper (T4)
Kasimir [ 1 ]: Tinwatcher (T1)

Hope this helps. PHing is hell but I hope you can help us make some sense of the game as I feel there's too much FUD going on at the moment.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

4 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

We've established this, they're an elim and the main contender for the exe is there teammate. 

I am half joking. But only half.

Wait who’s the main contender for the exe?

Also, @Kasimir what does FUD mean?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

EDIT: Making a vote count because I need to see what the heck is going on (see bottom of this post). Also, as a reminder: italics are for past votes, strikethrough is for canceled votes, and bold yellow is for current cycle votes.

Most people still have not switched their votes off themselves and we're almost halfway through the cycle. This actually includes myself, and in order to take my vote off myself and put more distance between the current leading train and the potential for a terrible tie, I'm going to vote Aeternum. This is preliminary for now.

Anyway, @Aeternum @Tinwatcher @KelsierApologist @The Unknown Order @Aster @ThatOneWorldhopper @BigBadBagsworth @Negative_Null @Lord Spirit y'all need to come vote for someone besides yourself.

• Aeternum (6): Aeternum-1, Aeternum-2, Aeternum-3, Aeternum-5, IcedOutPenguin-5, StrikerEZ-5,
• Aster (5): Lord Spirit-1, Aster-2, Aster-4, IcedOutPenguin-4, ThatOneWorldhopper-4, Aster-5,
• Tinwatcher (4): Tinwatcher-2, Aster-3, Tinwatcher-4, Tinwatcher-5,
• KelsierApologist (4): |TJ|-1, Kasimir-1, KelsierApologist-4, KelsierApologist-5,
• The Unknown Order (3): Negative_Null-1, BigBadBagsworth-2, Lord Spirit-2, Lord Spirit-4, StrikerEZ-4, The Unknown Order-5, 
• IcedOutPenguin (3): The Unknown Order-1, ThatOneWorldhopper-3, Aster-4,
• BigBadBagsworth (3): IcedOutPenguin-3, BigBadBagsworth-4, BigBadBagsworth-5,
• StrikerEZ (2): BigBadBagsworth-1, ThatOneWorldhopper-2, Negative_Null-2, The Unknown Order-4,
• ThatOneWorldhopper (2): IcedOutPenguin-2, ThatOneWorldhopper-5,
• Negative_Null (2): Negative_Null-4, Negative_Null-5, Kasimir-5,
• Kasimir (1): Tinwatcher-1,
• Lord Spirit (1): Negative_Null-3, Lord Spirit-5,

EDIT AGAIN: Trying to get rid of all of those emojis that decided to show up.

EDIT AGAIN AGAIN: I just realized my vote count is horribly wrong actually, lemme fix this

EDIT AGAIN AGAIN AGAIN: This should finally be right. Still gonna leave my vote on Aeternum now to break a different tie.

Edited May 25, 2025 by StrikerEZ

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

On 5/24/2025 at 9:28 AM, IcedOutPenguin said:

If you told me someone better to vote and gave me reasoning why, I'd be willing to 

7 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

That actually makes a lot of sense, I'm probably getting tricked, so I'll switch my vote

So back to the random number for my vote! 4! Aeternum

These two comments don't fly with me. I feel like what was happening was Penguin was trying to either push or hardbus TUN, then someone in the doc said something like "you're not experienced enough to do this" (I'm not saying I am, though), so Penguin switched to random or someone 

17 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Just for the record, can I have your stance/position on whether this is a frame or not. Yes or no. If someone put a gun to your head and forced you to pick.

@A Jo in the Bush 

Sorry I couldn't reply last night. I think it could go either way, but gut instinct says no, TUN is not an elim. That means, however, that there was probably an experienced player on the elim team. I'd guess Striker, but that's just a hunch that I'll vote on once we find out if Penguin is elim. Also, sorry about the tag, but I can't figure out how to get a tag out of a quote

[BigBadBagsworth He/him/his]

From what I’ve been reading, it seems like the most likely scenario, or at least the one that seems most likely, is e/e penguin and striker, especially since they both “accidentally” voted for @Aeternum, Penguins interactions just seem weird and he’s random voting on turn 5, and because TUO seems like he’s being framed and penguin’s leading the train against him.

also, does anyone with more than one game under their belt have a read on @Kasimir yet? I don’t think anyone’s had one to this point.

Penguin

[Aeternum]

Mm yeah let's vote the most lhf slot in the game for the reason of "I don't want a tie". What are your reads, Striker?

ThatOneWorldhopper towny for this post and this post. And "Penguin was trying to either push or hardbus TUN, then someone in the doc said something like "you're not experienced enough to do this" (I'm not saying I am, though), so Penguin switched to random or someone" from like two posts above this.

Originally, I was going with Kas town off of skimming Kas's posts (turn 4/5), as it looks like genuine solving. iirc Kas doesn't like being an elim, and I wouldn't expect this level of investment from e!Kas when e!Kas could honestly slack off a lot more by the looks of things. @BigBadBagsworth since you asked.

Admittedly I have some concerns about the way Kas treated TJ after reading turn 1 and 2, just not as on my radar as other slots. I later actually read posts from turn 1/2, and my thoughts were: Kas has a weird treatment of TJ EoD1. This is mostly offset by Kas otherwise having pretty good posts. I... don't think I can confidently townread Kas's posts from turn 1 and 2, though. This feels more like I'll look later when. Ftr Kas's treatment of Aster is probably not e/e and I have slight pocketing concerns that contribute to my paranoia. Kas does avoid TJ wagon a lot turn 1/2 and has been otherwise voting a lot of LHF slots. So yeah. I have concerns.

I could talk more about it but I don't think there's a point in it when a) Kas isn't a vote I'd go for today, and b) I'd have to really read in depth to be more certain, and I don't uh, like reading. So I skimmed through several of Kas's posts and might've missed stuff that would make me feel differently. You could take this as Aet is very paranoid, part 182914. I have higher expectations for Kas's elim range than other slots. Sorry this part is formatted weirdly because I wrote half of it way later.

I like TUO's posts from last turn, not enough for a concrete townread, but lower town lean. Probably can be a busser without really looking into things and going off of what I've seen people mention, but don't really want to go there yet. TUO feels more chill than e!TUO from what I remember so I'm liking that as well.

IcedOutPenguin, explain your reads for me.

Level 0 I would just kill Striker and IcedOutPenguin and expect an elim flip lol. Unless someone is coaching standard distancing, IcedOutPenguin and BigBadBagsworth are likely unpaired for a series of posts on turn 3 (not e/e). I partially believe a PoE of Striker/IcedOutPenguine/Negative_Null should at least hit an elim.

Striker's "I just panicked" -> *does not solve* on turn 3 is elim behaviour imo this is my attempt to not say "wolfy" but that's the word I was going for. Also this post.

@Kasimir what does FUD mean?

I don't know if it's worth talking about my opinion on the mercy shot stuff but I have thoughts related to it. There is a best way to use it, and I think knowing if the elims are aware of this or not would help describe the elim team composition in terms of how new they are.

There's incentive to bus turn 3, as in, I would normally expect elims always bus there, but site meta difference makes me unsure. I wouldn't clear anyone for a vote turn 3, and I would be more likely to call those who voted TJ turn 2 to be town since SE players don't bus apparently. TJ should've been in antispew (fancy word for trying to look not e/e with elim partners) at the very least, but by the looks of it didn't really post turn 3.

This post from BigBadBagsworth is towny lol.

I would slightly unpair Kas and TJ from a post TJ made on turn 1, but that's more like not thinking it's within TJ's elim range to think of that than actually finding it unpairing.

Aster is cool off of turn 1, not really enough for a townlean but Aster is off my radar rn.

This is a bad post from Null lol. Overexplained/reasoning is off.

This post gets towncred because voting your elim partner over voting town in that situation is probably not a move most elims make. Fine with slotting KelsierApologist as town for now.

Null and Striker had back to back posts that felt TMI-y on what happened. Later on, I thought Null would be slightly unpaired from Striker from a vote on turn 2 (I'd have to look at exact wagon numbers to be more specific), though.

TL;DR

ThatOneWorldhopper
KelsierApologist
---
TUO

BigBadbagsworth
Kas
Aster
---
(Everyone not mentioned) / Tinwatcher
Null / Striker / IcedOutPenguin

Loosely would go Null / IcedOutPenguin > Striker. I think my reasons for e!Null are a bit stronger than e!IcedOutPenguin because I'm factoring in potentially just being new to the game (and if you didn't know, I have an insanely bad track record with reading newbies).

I wanted to put Tinwatcher in a separate tier of null for having bad posts while also doing a self vote turn 2 that is just so not elim-like that I'm not sure where I'd actually put Tinwatcher. It's pretty level 0 elim... elim-ing? to tell a new player to Just Vote Town, and voting yourself something that I think generally any elim team would be able to coach someone out of doing. Might gth town this slot.

I read turn 4 -> turn 3 -> turn 1 -> turn 2 ftr things look weirdly out of order, and I don't write my posts linearly if I have related thoughts.

Sorry for post formatting, I have a very spam post-y playstyle usually and I can't do that here. Feel free to ask for elaboration on reads if you're ok with me saying no because sometimes I just don't.

Anyways, I deserve cookies for reading the entire game.

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

5 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

IcedOutPenguin, explain your reads for me.

Like, who I think is an elim? 

That's a big reason why I'm voting randomly, because I don't have any certain reads on anyone. I am e!leaning BBB, but I think that's more because of antagonism and not any actual evidence. 

I also think a e/e BBB & TOW isn't unlikely, but once again this mostly stems from antagonism.

I'm unsure about Striker and Kas. And everybody else I just haven't seen enough to get a solid read.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 hours ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

also, does anyone with more than one game under their belt have a read on @Kasimir yet? I don’t think anyone’s had one to this point.

Pretty strongly v, though not as confident as I would have been if Kas had acted this way last year.

Kas does not like being elim, he's gotten better by his own omission, but you can only get so good from what you start with. If he's putting out lots of analysis in thread, it's a good sign but not definitive. What I look for is, for lack of a better way to say it, gears turning. Even if Kas doesn't have the time to make big posts, he thinks about it very thoroughly, and I think he would lack that as an elim.

1 hour ago, Aeternum said:

Anyways, I deserve cookies for reading the entire game.

Cookies for you! Aeternum is best ternum. 

Oh I still haven't voted. I'd prefer Striker, but IcedOutPenguin is sus enough that I'll join Aet. 

I'll 100% be on before rollover, so will check back in again then.

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

Does anyone have a current vote count? 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

We have about 10 and a half hours left of this turn, and there are still Five folks who have yet to vote. Here's the most up to date Vote Count per my sheet.

I will be @'ing folks who haven't voted, and coloring this turn's votes in Purple.

BigBadBagsworth [ 2 ]: IcedOutPenguin(T3), BigBadBagsworth (T4)
@KelsierApologist [ 4 ]: Kasimir(T1), |TJ| (T1), KelsierApologist (T4, T5)
The Unknown Order [ 2 ]:  Negative_Null (T1), BigBadBagsworth (T2), Lord Spirit (T2), StrikerEZ(T4), Lord Spirit (T4)
Aeternum [ 5 ]: Aeternum(T1, T2, T3), IcedOutPenguin (T5), Striker EZ (T5)
IcedOutPenguin [ 6 ]: The Unknown Order (T1), ThatOneWorldhopper (T3), BigbadBagsworth (T5), The Unknown Order (T5), Aeternum (T5), ThatOneWorldhopper (T5)
ThatOneWorldhopper [ 1 ]: IcedOutPenguin (T1)
@Negative_Null [ 2 ]: Negative_Null (T4), Kasimir (T5), Negative_Null (T5)
@Lord Spirit [ 1 ]: Negative_Null (T3), Lord Spirit (T5)
@Tinwatcher [ 3 ]: Tinwatcher (T2), Aster, (T3), Tinwatcher (T4, T5)
StrikerEZ [ 2 ]: BigBadBagsworth (T1), ThatOneWorldhopper (T2), Negative Null (T2), The Unknown Order (T4)
@Aster [ 5 ]: Lord Spirit (T1), Aster (T2, T4), IcedOutPenguin (T4), ThatOneWorldhopper (T4), Aster (T5)
Kasimir [ 1 ]: Tinwatcher (T1)

Currently, IcedOutPenguin is in first w/ 6 votes, and Aster and Aeternum are tied for second with 5 votes.

EDIT: Will be offline until rollover. Good Luck!

Edited May 26, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Anyways, I deserve cookies for reading the entire game.

Please, you play on MU. Those mfs spam like nobody's business. 

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Loosely would go Null / IcedOutPenguin > Striker. I think my reasons for e!Null are a bit stronger than e!IcedOutPenguin because I'm factoring in potentially just being new to the game (and if you didn't know, I have an insanely bad track record with reading newbies).

Okay, I think my question here is the same: where is this call on Null's comparative experience coming from? I swear TJ made something that sounded like it C1 and confused TUN and myself. 

Inb4 it's because it was an Elim doc conversation

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

This post from BigBadBagsworth is towny lol.

Can you spell out the thought process behind this read more please? Have Triple B in PoE and have wondered if Trips was looking for a ML yesterday due to bad faith valence of interaction.

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

TJ should've been in antispew (fancy word for trying to look not e/e with elim partners) at the very least, but by the looks of it didn't really post turn 3.

Had a big dump EoD C3 which I'm ignoring because post reads are my worst skill but if you want to essay it, be my guest.

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I don't know if it's worth talking about my opinion on the mercy shot stuff but I have thoughts related to it. There is a best way to use it, and I think knowing if the elims are aware of this or not would help describe the elim team composition in terms of how new they are.

FWIW, I would say make the call off how close we are to potential lylo. With potential ties killing, we are probably looking at an explosive endgame state which accelerates before we expect. That being said, it's probably still callable.

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I could talk more about it but I  I have higher expectations for Kas's elim range than other slots. Sorry this part is formatted weirdly because I wrote half of it way later.

I like TUO's posts from last turn, not enough for a concrete townread, but lower town lean. Probably can be a busser without really looking into things and going off of what I've seen people mention, but don't really want to go there yet. TUO feels more chill than e!TUO from what I remember so I'm liking that as well.

@Kasimir what does FUD mean?

K I'm currently commuting back to the hospital and quoting broke on me so this gets The Chunk.

1. On my E!range—lol prepare to be disappointed. It hasn't significantly evolved since I want to say, MR62 (I forget the number for once.) I don't really care what you're gonna say about this in terms of ironic MU ~self-meta talk, I just want this on record for posterity and so I can say "I told you so" the next time a GM breaks my Village streak.

2. I think my question is, you state repeatedly you would give C2 TJ voters more credit. Is there some reason you think Polly deserves more and/or depress your TUN read? This guy was pushing back in thread on Aster raising framing worries and arguing with me that TJ had to be flipped (I didn't disagree, it's just complicated.).

3. FUD for Aet and whoever asked I use in two senses.

It's literally Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt tactics. In the first sense, I use it to refer to when a player e.g. E!Mat will continuously try to erode thread confidence in Village reads or scans by continuously sowing doubt and forcing rethinks/fear that thread is wrong. The classic example IMO is probably QF62 where E!Mat talked the surviving players into exeing V!Danex, who was softcleared, by repeatedly emphasising to us that Danex's clear was based on things that could not be taken for granted. (Note: The error margins were so small it should have been ignored.)

The second sense is my subjective sense of the game. I feel I've been throwing read attempts with little pushback or SAN checking which is increasingly frustrating and makes everything feel foggy and built on quicksand. Also goes back to my comments on how quickly/nearly we were committed to flipping a TJ C2 voter yesterday which would imply the thought he's bussing and the repeated comments about how we cannot know things e.g. from TOW and failure to set down good Village prioritisation.

Edited May 26, 2025 by Kasimir
Attempted merge failed I'm sorry I'm on mobile rn it's cursed

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add:

35 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

What I look for is, for lack of a better way to say it, gears turning. Even if Kas doesn't have the time to make big posts, he thinks about it very thoroughly, and I think he would lack that as an elim.

You did catch the WiM differential. The one thing I haven't seen people who aren't Archer notice yet though I've wondered if Aster is saving it for a rainy day is that I struggle to fake uncertainty as an Elim. My reads don't significantly evolve much and they evolve slowly. Village me is capable of shifting three times on the same player in 24 hours and making an extreme swing from V reading to KILL IMMEDIATELY to grumpy "ok Village what was I smoking." Which as Archer noted, means I have very tame EoDs and cycles as Elim because I just want the Villagers to stfu and ML my target already. Which I think is why Octo realised I was behaving weird in my last E!game with him and Aster. I don't think it changes anything and maybe our own weaknesses are always easier to ID but I've been surprised more than once that no one has seemed to spot this.

[OoklaApologist She/her]

I’ll try to pop on before rollover but until then, Penguin

If you guys want reasons, lmk and I’ll put a full reads post together when I can

Edited May 26, 2025 by KelsierApologist
sp&g, missed a word

[Aeternum]

3 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Like, who I think is an elim? 

That's a big reason why I'm voting randomly, because I don't have any certain reads on anyone. I am e!leaning BBB, but I think that's more because of antagonism and not any actual evidence. 

I also think a e/e BBB & TOW isn't unlikely, but once again this mostly stems from antagonism.

I'm unsure about Striker and Kas. And everybody else I just haven't seen enough to get a solid read.

I'm ngl being antagonizing is generally a more town thing to do because elims like to not get on people's bad side.

However, you've just stated you have an elim read, and you're choosing to instead random vote over pursuing your even slight elim read.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Please, you play on MU. Those mfs spam like nobody's business. 

Always MU this MU that, every game.

I am the spammiest poster on MU so lol.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, I think my question here is the same: where is this call on Null's comparative experience coming from? I swear TJ made something that sounded like it C1 and confused TUN and myself. 

Inb4 it's because it was an Elim doc conversation

From reading the game and what other people have mentioned about them. I was referring to IcedOutPenguin. No idea about Null, didn't give newbie vibes so I didn't apply my newbie filter to my read.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Can you spell out the thought process behind this read more please? Have Triple B in PoE and have wondered if Trips was looking for a ML yesterday due to bad faith valence of interaction.

The post again for reference, it gives very newbie lost in thread vibes in a way that is probably more likely v than not. The one reason I wouldn't fully commit that way is it's easy to be a new elim and your team says "ok go look like a lost newbie in thread and get townread for it", which I did consider. But asking if it's good reasoning just is so pure, and asking if it's bad if TJ doesn't flip elim felt slightly without TMI, since I think a newbie elim would've had more TMI to the statement and TMI'd TJ flipping wolf. And so wouldn't have asked about v!TJ worlds.

Don't quite see what you're referring to with the last part when I took a look at posts from last turn.

Fwiw reading last turn again did make me consider if IcedOutPenguin is an actual lost newbie off of a comment about voting with people who give good reasoning. At some point do you not just get saved by elim doc telling you how to make reads lol. Going to move to StrikerEZ, although it's unlikely to matter given the difference in overall votes needed to put the wagon as top wagon.

If I get sniped because my slot self voted for three cycles I will be very sad ngl.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

1. On my E!range—lol prepare to be disappointed. It hasn't significantly evolved since I want to say, MR62 (I forget the number for once.) I don't really care what you're gonna say about this in terms of ironic MU ~self-meta talk, I just want this on record for posterity and so I can say "I told you so" the next time a GM breaks my Village streak.

Ok lol. I don't know what you expected me to say. I'll go sit in the corner ig lol.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

2. I think my question is, you state repeatedly you would give C2 TJ voters more credit. Is there some reason you think Polly deserves more and/or depress your TUN read? This guy was pushing back in thread on Aster raising framing worries and arguing with me that TJ had to be flipped (I didn't disagree, it's just complicated.).

I read one of Polly's votes as unpairing at some point, and therefore put more value into it. Fwiw I think TJ was a dying slot starting d2, after elims did vote manip to save TJ, and thread seemed to want TJ dead d2 but instead a villager got sniped last minute.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

3. FUD for Aet and whoever asked I use in two senses.

It's literally Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt tactics. In the first sense, I use it to refer to when a player e.g. E!Mat will continuously try to erode thread confidence in Village reads or scans by continuously sowing doubt and forcing rethinks/fear that thread is wrong. The classic example IMO is probably QF62 where E!Mat talked the surviving players into exeing V!Danex, who was softcleared, by repeatedly emphasising to us that Danex's clear was based on things that could not be taken for granted. (Note: The error margins were so small it should have been ignored.)

The second sense is my subjective sense of the game. I feel I've been throwing read attempts with little pushback or SAN checking which is increasingly frustrating and makes everything feel foggy and built on quicksand. Also goes back to my comments on how quickly/nearly we were committed to flipping a TJ C2 voter yesterday which would imply the thought he's bussing and the repeated comments about how we cannot know things e.g. from TOW and failure to set down good Village prioritisation.

I think it's more likely to feel that way in a game where votes stack across turns, but I noticed a similar sort of consensus mindset in that way as well. Tbf you could partially amount that to a lot of new players more like to want to sheep consensus, but yeah. It was unnerving a bit while reading back.

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

9 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I'm ngl being antagonizing is generally a more town thing to do because elims like to not get on people's bad side.

However, you've just stated you have an elim read, and you're choosing to instead random vote over pursuing your even slight elim read.

I'm decently sure my elim reads are both wrong, and are instead just a new guy and a experienced guy bullying another new guy. Besides I don't have any actual evidence other than a (probably wrong based on past experiences) feeling. I think I have just as much of a chance getting an elim voting randomly rather than following a feeling. 

Why is everybody voting me just just because I'm voting random on cycle 5 out of... at least 9, at most 13 now. It's not that much of an issue. Unless I'm completely misreading why I'm being voted.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Always MU this MU that, every game.

Wouldn't need to if y'all didn't bring that place here everytime ಠ_ಠ /j

But also their threads are a battlefield to wade through and I was only reading to support Ash so you get half a cookie for doing your job when you deal with worse regularly!

Lord, I'm tempted to make it a quarter.

8 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

But asking if it's good reasoning just is so pure

I'm raising an eyebrow about purity reads ngl. Though at least unlike Stick, you have not gone on record saying you despise them.

9 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

asking if it's bad if TJ doesn't flip elim felt slightly without TMI, since I think a newbie elim would've had more TMI to the statement and TMI'd TJ flipping wolf. And so wouldn't have asked about v!TJ worlds.

Even with a doc?

10 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Don't quite see what you're referring to with the last part when I took a look at posts from last turn.

Specifically referring to Triple B's opener - three pings repeatedly asking me to explain a TOW opener vote "because he hasn't said anything", then switching and taking an issue with me not saying anything about the Soothe and TUN while dismissing the post I made with reads as "a lot of words." I read as the most half-arsed way of trying to sus someone possible: CBA to commit and come out and say it, hence the fishing this cycle for reads, but also CBA to read the post and just trying to keep finding a low-lying target to attack me with.

I disagree with Aman in that I feel new Elims can go one of two ways - they can definitely choose to just never confront the noisy Village player, or they can choose to go for it. This was Gaea's pattern in the White Tower game TJ ran (LG104), it was my pattern the first time I Elimed when I tried to get Meta killed, etc. The bad faith and lack of interest in the reads makes me think it's not a solving mindset, but a framing one. I just also wondered if I was being too uncharitable to Triple B.

16 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

At some point do you not just get saved by elim doc telling you how to make reads lol.

IMO this would almost make a case for Striker first from your point of view in that you want to establish there's no more anchor player there. But this is something I've been asking myself a little, which is whether TJ was the only anchor player, because I could see a panic Mercy shot burn for an otherwise new team at the prospect of losing their anchor player.

18 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Going to move to StrikerEZ, although it's unlikely to matter given the difference in overall votes needed to put the wagon as top wagon.

I'm more concerned at the passive rate votes have been accumulating. Which is another tacit reason for my alarm behind Null I suppose - if the Elims are wiping a lot of votes off TUN, what about the rest of their team? Even in an E!TUN world, are they not balancing the implications to the rest of their team? In both worlds, it is weakly suggestive to me they're not terribly concerned about votes, which is one reason I'm looking back at the self-voters (easy to one-shot Soothe) and the ones with low persistent votes.

I'm interested btw in why you ranked Null with Penguin prior to Striker but move from Penguin to Striker instead of Null.

20 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Ok lol. I don't know what you expected me to say. I'll go sit in the corner ig lol.

I don't expect you to say anything, nor do I give a damn. In life, there are several things to appreciate, which include: John Cena's heel run, R-Truth being a treasure, GUNTHER's snark, and getting to say "I *-ing told you so, but I guess you had to learn the hard way" to people. I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader what I was intending to do with this one.

22 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Fwiw I think TJ was a dying slot starting d2

You say this about my expected Elim range and yet you also wanna hold I make the tyro's mistake of not just writing TJ off decisively. Pick a lane  

But okay more seriously, other than me mocking this, I'd like you to say more about the Polly vote if possible? Want to understand why that's unpairing in a way TUN's was not, and also if I'm missing anything on TUN.

I think you and Aster are tier 2, I am ok for the moment with not having either of you flip, so I will secure the lead train if need be, but ngl if Aster stays inactive, that might just end up being a shrug.

I've never really known Aster to be this inactive, though obviously Discord and comfort level with the group are two different factors. I've wondered a little if that's extra time in the doc but kind of think it'd be easy af for Aster to just get on and vote and avoid a self-vote that way, rather than Elims needing to blow a Soothe on it in an environment where the Village is already paying a lot of attention to this.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Having my best friends over for a weekend is a lot fun, but I am exhausted. I don’t have the brainpower to explain why, but Penguin.

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Why is everybody voting me just just because I'm voting random on cycle 5 out of... at least 9, at most 13 now. It's not that much of an issue. Unless I'm completely misreading why I'm being voted.

I'm curious too. If only because I actually find Null more objectionable.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm curious too. If only because I actually find Null more objectionable.

Why Null? Maybe it’s keeping track of newbie struggles, but I have zero opinions on Null

[Aeternum]

36 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I'm decently sure my elim reads are both wrong, and are instead just a new guy and a experienced guy bullying another new guy. Besides I don't have any actual evidence other than a (probably wrong based on past experiences) feeling. I think I have just as much of a chance getting an elim voting randomly rather than following a feeling. 

Why is everybody voting me just just because I'm voting random on cycle 5 out of... at least 9, at most 13 now. It's not that much of an issue. Unless I'm completely misreading why I'm being voted.

At this point, especially with an elim flipped who you can read off of for associatives (as in, who their elim partners would be based on their treatment of other players, and other players' treatment of them), I would expect you to have at least some reads. Even if it's just "well I didn't like this post". Vibes are still worth pursuing sometimes.

On cycle one when there's no content to read off of and no flips, random voting stage (RVS) is like the meme part of the game until people start making serious reads. By halfway through cycle one, usually you'd hope that the game is far out of RVS and players are making reads.

Do you have thoughts on TJ's reads and how that would affect your read on the players he read certain ways? Are there any posts this game you've read and disliked? You can still be wrong (I'm wrong a lot dw, I get how it feels), but the important part is you are trying to solve and make reads, which makes it easier for everyone else to read and see if you're town actually trying to solve the game, or an elim faking solving or struggling to fake solving. Being findable as town is more important than catching elims by yourself fwiw.

Anyways Iced is probably town lol.

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm raising an eyebrow about purity reads ngl. Though at least unlike Stick, you have not gone on record saying you despise them.

I think I've been correct on zero purity reads tbf, but that was just the easiest way I could describe that post in whatever fancy words you need to understand my read, which was more just "lol this looks town because I decided it looks town", and less "well actually here's a ten paragraph explanation for why this post is towny". It's TMI free to me, maybe pure is a bad word, but imo is saying the exact same thing.

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Even with a doc?

There's a doc lol?

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Specifically referring to Triple B's opener - three pings repeatedly asking me to explain a TOW opener vote "because he hasn't said anything", then switching and taking an issue with me not saying anything about the Soothe and TUN while dismissing the post I made with reads as "a lot of words." I read as the most half-arsed way of trying to sus someone possible: CBA to commit and come out and say it, hence the fishing this cycle for reads, but also CBA to read the post and just trying to keep finding a low-lying target to attack me with.

Honestly I don't really see that. I also don't think most elims bother to push v!you atp.

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

IMO this would almost make a case for Striker first from your point of view in that you want to establish there's no more anchor player there. But this is something I've been asking myself a little, which is whether TJ was the only anchor player, because I could see a panic Mercy shot burn for an otherwise new team at the prospect of losing their anchor player.

TJ was dead starting turn 2 from the looks of it. Not dying turn 2 gave TJ an extra day, which was more of gave the wolves an extra misexe. Using the mercy there just gives them another misexe, it doesn't save TJ. I think they'd only use it there if they thought they needed the extra day, or TJ thought he could talk himself out of dying (which fwiw if the mercy had been used would've been an actual death sentence for TJ getting saved twice in a row).

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm more concerned at the passive rate votes have been accumulating. Which is another tacit reason for my alarm behind Null I suppose - if the Elims are wiping a lot of votes off TUN, what about the rest of their team? Even in an E!TUN world, are they not balancing the implications to the rest of their team? In both worlds, it is weakly suggestive to me they're not terribly concerned about votes, which is one reason I'm looking back at the self-voters (easy to one-shot Soothe) and the ones with low persistent votes.

I'm interested btw in why you ranked Null with Penguin prior to Striker but move from Penguin to Striker instead of Null.

I stared at the VC for a couple minutes and decided Striker was a better vote lol.

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You say this about my expected Elim range and yet you also wanna hold I make the tyro's mistake of not just writing TJ off decisively. Pick a lane  

But okay more seriously, other than me mocking this, I'd like you to say more about the Polly vote if possible? Want to understand why that's unpairing in a way TUN's was not, and also if I'm missing anything on TUN.

I don't expect you to be a busser if that's what you're saying. TJ was consensus let's kill this slot d2, and didn't die by the power of probably elims voting town instead.

Like I mentioned earlier, this post is probably not e/e with TJ for "I feel like it’s kind of trashy to have this exe d1. We can revisit it tomorrow." and then votes TJ. Not really a point in going "yeah this exe on a newbie sucks" and then going off and voting your elim partner. e!Polly doesn't even have to care who flips, and could've just voted town instead there if it really mattered to saving the lhf newbie. It's just not really a spot where you vote your elim partner, so I find it unpairing. It's from cycle 1, which gets more towncred than TJ half dead already cycle 2.

Idk about TUN's vote in relation to that.

I could go for a Null vote here as well, I have a slightly stronger social reason on Null than Striker iirc.

If it matters, I'd generally expect to be able to say e!Iced would get bussed here off of threadstate, but alas, that's not how it works here. So people jumping on Iced's wagon without any reasoning is just bad. And Iced probably flips town for that, rather than flipping elim with bussers. If that makes sense. I'd expect a lot more resistance, judging from TJ not dying for a whole cycle, if Iced was an elim here. Barring the elim team being inactive, obviously.

Edit:

Lol I read "doc" as "doctor", sorry. You meant elim doc. And yeah, I don't expect every post to be coached, more the overall structure of what direction to go to. You can't coach out TMI unless they're saying in the doc "hey is this ok to say" with every post. Which I don't think is happening, and I'd think that posts might sound more awkward and forced in that case, with someone editing what you're going to say directly. I'm also not sure if that's even something anyone would do, or if it's allowed to copy and paste stuff in that way.

Edited May 26, 2025 by Aeternum

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Why Null? Maybe it’s keeping track of newbie struggles, but I have zero opinions on Null

It's a follow-up from D2 when I re-read. I've been bringing it up again and again including during C4 but with no real person to bounce it off but still have not gotten resolution.

Null says this to KSauce when KSauce is begging for a save:

On 5/22/2025 at 6:43 PM, Negative_Null said:

That's also a good point, that we can see who will be saved by the Elims. Regardless, after checking the spreadsheet, I'll keep my vote for Unknown. Sorry, Spren but I can't do anything for you

Unless I've greatly screwed up the votecount again which is not surprising in this game, the votes were 3/3, i.e. in a tie at the time Null made this post. [NOTE: I DID ONE MORE CHECK JUST TO BE SURE AND THERE'S A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MY NOTES AND JOE'S LATER VC. I CAN'T RECONCILE IT NOW ON THE GO BUT IF SOMEONE CAN CHECK IT FOR ME, IT'D BE GREAT.]

tldr; Null's OG vote for TUN is passed off as "well let's force a tie and he's experienced." But there already was a tie - it was 3/3 between TJ and KSauce at that time.

Subsequently, on KSauce's appeal, says they'll keep their vote for Unknown on pain of another tie.

My original problem with it and why I've been yelling about it for the past couple cycles is I don't like Null walking back their attitude towards ties when it eventually meant a Villager ML instead of an Elim death. If it turns out there's yet another cursed vc, then that's fine. But I really cannot do this now, I'm rushing this right before I leave the clinic for the next stop so I'll do it after I'm home.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

I feel pretty safe about TUO bring village. If he was an elim, it seems really unlikely for him to clear that many votes on himself when he wasn’t under a ton of suspicion. (Which does mean my previous vote was a mistake).

I’m voting Null. I agree with Kas, and even if they don’t end up being elim, they should have more than 2 votes (one of which is their own). 

The longer this game goes on, the more powerful the elims vote erase becomes. They can erase five votes this turn. Not necessary advocating for ties or anything, but I feel like this has been mostly ignored. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

You did catch the WiM differential. The one thing I haven't seen people who aren't Archer notice yet though I've wondered if Aster is saving it for a rainy day is that I struggle to fake uncertainty as an Elim. My reads don't significantly evolve much and they evolve slowly. Village me is capable of shifting three times on the same player in 24 hours and making an extreme swing from V reading to KILL IMMEDIATELY to grumpy "ok Village what was I smoking." Which as Archer noted, means I have very tame EoDs and cycles as Elim because I just want the Villagers to stfu and ML my target already. Which I think is why Octo realised I was behaving weird in my last E!game with him and Aster. I don't think it changes anything and maybe our own weaknesses are always easier to ID but I've been surprised more than once that no one has seemed to spot this.

That's roughly what I mean by gears turning. Even if you don't write it out, your actions tend to suggest constant revising. That's what I saw on TJ and why I don't distrust you for it.

Not sure what the vc is but I don't think a Striker Pivot is doable and I don't want to mess with it. I'm going to try to figure out the vc.

Edit: just checked, and yeah, Striker pivot seems very unlikely, especially without accidentally getting Aet killed.

Edited May 26, 2025 by The Unknown Order