Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[OoklaApologist She/her]

7 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

 

40 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

She made a very interesting game post last cycle

I’m going for one good opinion per day here

[STINK he/him]

You guys are making some real good RP posts I need to fully get in on that

[Steeldancer he/him]

28 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

I'm down for it, that way we can have democracy amongst the ajahs

that sounds weird, but Polly already said everything that could be said on it and I agree  

Did someone say DEMOCRACY

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

Do you think the Black Ajah are more likely to try to delay any Sitter getting Elevated to Amrylin Seat, or do you think they're more likely to push for one of their Sitters to get Elevated very early on?

I think that they are going to delay as long as they can without being too suspicious, long enough for their Sitter to do some politicking, and then push for them for the Amrylin Seat. At that point, they can afford to lose a few of their Ajah members pushing really hard on an opposing Sitter to be elected, leading the way for them to subtley bring in their Sitter and win the game.

Edit: Spelling

Edited March 22, 2025 by ThatOneWorldhopper

[OoklaApologist She/her]

35 minutes ago, STINK said:

You guys are making some real good RP posts I need to fully get in on that

Rashmuht’s alarm went off again

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 hour ago, KelsierApologist said:

I think I know this one. Ajah abilities can only be used in the presence of 3+ sitters, so no, no, and yes.

>.< I should have noticed that. I need to go reread the rules yet again. Thank you Polly.

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

For Bridgeboi . . . yes, I am. I was expecting a not active role for his first game ever, but I'm glad to see he'll be involved. I have a v/lean towards him, but that could easily be biase.

As for myself, I'll hopefully be more active when the game picks up, but school makes that hard.

I don't have things on everyone, but thoughts on a few people

For my thoughts, I think Ashbringer is approaching this game too analytically to be an elim, so soft village lean, but that could change in the near future.

I also think Jo in the Bush's anaylsis is good so, v/lean

KelsierApologist village cuz I have a gut feeling abt that and thought your post was convincing, but again, I could be wrong

Don't know who Imma vote for just yet, but I think none of the above, tho some (especially ones I cleared on analysis, could easily be elims. Just cuz there approaching the game analytically don't mean they're village)

Wait, this is BridgeBoi's first game? I don't think I knew that. I get that school/work makes activity difficult in these kinda games. Thank you for answering and giving some analysis!

47 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I think that they are going to delay as long as they can without being too suspicious, long enough for their Sitter to do some politicking, and then push for them for the Amrylin Seat. At that point, they can afford to lose a few of their Ajah members pushing really hard on an opposing Sitter to be elected, leading the way for them to subtley bring in their Sitter and win the game.

Edit: Spelling

*Squints* Why does it say you're quoting TwinStorm? I asked that question. What is happening here? (I assume you highlighted that part of the post inside TwinStorm's Post where he quoted me, and that's what's happening, but idk)

A more middle of the ground approach then, and kinda not one I had actually thought of. Interesting! Thank you. New question, is there an abbreviation or nickname you prefer over TOW? Of would you prefer we call you by ThatOneWorldhopper?

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Ain't done that yet, still wondering how my character became a character of the thread but I'm willing to run with that tbh

Sleep well.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I'm just waiting for the paranoia to hit and to become this man 

Spoiler

 

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

1. What are the actual definitions of Majority vote vs Plurality Vote?
2. Does Majority mean “More than half of all living players”?
3. Does Plurality mean “More than any other candidate”?
4. When will we learn how many Deposition Votes the Amyrlin Seat must survive for?
5. Can the Brown Ajah use their ability if there are only 2 Sitters left?
6. Can the Green Ajah use their ability if there are only 2 Sitters left? What about 3?
7. Are ties for Elevation randomly decided?
8. If a player is Executed or Night Killed, is the color of their Ajah revealed?
9. For the Inactivity Filter, is it looking at Election Votes, Execution Votes, or both?

1. See below. I will mention the exact number of votes required for an Amyrlin Seat to be Raised at the beginning of every Night cycle. 
2. Yes.
3. Yes. More than or if it is equal, RNG will be used. 
4. When the Amyrlin Seat is elected. 
5. No.
6. No. Yes.
7. Yes. 
8. No. 
9. Both. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Woke up with a migraine and need to take meds. Won't be good for anything in the short term. Gonna respond to one or two things and then just eat meds and conk.

My reads/rough views as of last night are somewhere in this ballpark:

Probably Village:
-Drake
-Worldhopper
-Jo? (one or two good posts.)

Null:
-Everyone
-Ash (could revise downwards; has had some good suggestions but distrust how Ash had zero hesitation about backing our third Ajah-mate.)
-Polly??? (opposite reaction to the post Jo liked, it's just ?)

Sus:
-Steel
-Terris (had a post from last night I liked but don't super recall, unsure if I'd revise to null on the strength of it.)
-TUN/Sart (mostly distrust the relative silence/nothingburgers in thread and their rise to Sitter)

7 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

You've stated you have a very slight elim read on xxGaea, on the basis of them not having a strong opinion directly after Kas speculated that Elims would have a strong opinion one way or the other.

This is a misread of what I said, though I don't feel that E!you would do that on purpose. I said that the Elims were likely, if they engaged at all, to overcompensate by camping heavily in what they felt was intuitively the Village take here, i.e. don't claim, don't give the Elims everything. Sincere Villagers who think things through are more likely to endorse counterintuitive viewpoints - Elims don't want to take cheap heat, so don't want to go there.

Edited to add:

F me Steel is a Sitter nvm let's just keep it there as an Expression of My Opinion I'll fix it when I'm less out of it.

Spoiler

 

[Steeldancer he/him]

Okay, I see your not vote, and I raise you a question Kasimir. 
Why in the ever living heck would you speculate there were up to 6 elims at the beginning of the game???? Under what circumstances would that even be remotely balanced given the rule set, and you are more than experienced enough to know that having a third of the players in this game be elims would be inherently unbalanced. I can't say for sure whether its elim behavior to overinflate team numbers, or perhaps you just didn't understand the rules well or their implications. Still, I'd like to hear better reasoning as to why you're suspicious of me and why you speculated such a high number for the ceiling of the elim team. 
I'm currently running on the theory that there are 3, maybe 4 elims. 
Edit: nah strike that, 3 is too low. I'm guessing 4. Feels right given 6 not-thugs, and 6 functioning sub-factions. I'm also guessing, though this is a bit more speculative, that they're in 3 documents and have a majority in exactly one. 
Another edit: I think Jo's turn analysis makes it pretty clear that 6 would be too large. I don't think it would be possible to win if there were 6. The only win condition the village has is to kill all the elims, while the elims have such lovely options as:
1. Outnumber us
2. Get one of their own to Amyrlin
3. Oust a village Amyrlin
This gives the elims a lot more oomph than they would have in a normal game, even if they had individual powers. 6 would also be enough to infiltrate every document, or have a majority in multiple, which seems way too strong. 5 is definitely an upper limit, and even that seems high given the flexibility the elims have in terms of win condition. No, it's gotta be 4. And I'm betting at least one sitter is a black ajah. 

Edited March 22, 2025 by Steeldancer
more late night thinks

[Kasimir he/him]

31 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Okay, I see your not vote, and I raise you a question Kasimir. 

On 3/21/2025 at 5:52 AM, Kasimir said:

I will say also I do think there's something slightly tonally off about Steel, but I also don't super feel confident in tired!Kas's ability to pick up on it. More noting this for myself to revisit tomorrow when less exhausted. I kind of think Steel was less pushy than Jo and Gaea and that sticks out to me as an outlier.

Where was this energy last night and why does the 'no u' Elim kneejerk pushback only come when the vote comes onto you? I've made myself clear the night before I suspected you as one of the more sus of the responses to my question I received - I felt that you halfheartedly-taking it back without any firm conclusions after being pushed on your thoughts about Ajah claiming looked like you received resistance and backed away, and didn't make your convictions seem sincere.

You're my top candidate for Stilling tonight. Of course, we're at the start of D1 so maybe other people will shift.

32 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Why in the ever living heck would you speculate there were up to 6 elims at the beginning of the game???? Under what circumstances would that even be remotely balanced given the rule set, and you are more than experienced enough to know that having a third of the players in this game be elims would be inherently unbalanced. I can't say for sure whether its elim behavior to overinflate team numbers, or perhaps you just didn't understand the rules well or their implications. Still, I'd like to hear better reasoning as to why you're suspicious of me and why you speculated such a high number for the ceiling of the elim team. 

Again:

I mentioned 6 as an absolute limit, I felt 4-5 was more realistic.

On 3/20/2025 at 10:36 AM, Kasimir said:

How does everyone feel about an Ajah-mate massclaim? 4-5 Elims, maybe 6 tops depending on how TJ views the dynamic of this game (Sitters etc) seems likely to me; we probably have one or two uninfiltrated Ajahs, but the Black Ajah knows more than we do, so might as well close that gap.

Sitters are immune to NKs and exes unless otherwise deposed. How tf do you balance for the fact that 1/3 of the game at the start is immune to exes and NKs? Sure, there's a countdown but that's also helluva lot of potential firepower ganged up there, and as a GM, I might go for a 5-team just to make sure the Elims aren't overwhelmed in this landscape.

So, on your own proposition, if I'm 'experienced enough', do you think it is then the move of an experienced E player to, from your point of view, inflate the number of Elims to a "remotely unbalanced" number, and what do you think is realistically gained by doing so?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Okay, I see your not vote, and I raise you a question Kasimir. 
Why in the ever living heck would you speculate there were up to 6 elims at the beginning of the game???? Under what circumstances would that even be remotely balanced given the rule set, and you are more than experienced enough to know that having a third of the players in this game be elims would be inherently unbalanced. I can't say for sure whether its elim behavior to overinflate team numbers, or perhaps you just didn't understand the rules well or their implications. Still, I'd like to hear better reasoning as to why you're suspicious of me and why you speculated such a high number for the ceiling of the elim team. 
I'm currently running on the theory that there are 3, maybe 4 elims. 
Edit: nah strike that, 3 is too low. I'm guessing 4. Feels right given 6 not-thugs, and 6 functioning sub-factions. I'm also guessing, though this is a bit more speculative, that they're in 3 documents and have a majority in exactly one. 
Another edit: I think Jo's turn analysis makes it pretty clear that 6 would be too large. I don't think it would be possible to win if there were 6. The only win condition the village has is to kill all the elims, while the elims have such lovely options as:
1. Outnumber us
2. Get one of their own to Amyrlin
3. Oust a village Amyrlin
This gives the elims a lot more oomph than they would have in a normal game, even if they had individual powers. 6 would also be enough to infiltrate every document, or have a majority in multiple, which seems way too strong. 5 is definitely an upper limit, and even that seems high given the flexibility the elims have in terms of win condition. No, it's gotta be 4. And I'm betting at least one sitter is a black ajah. 

This all is good, I agree that they're has to be 3-4 Black Ajah, spread out throughout the Ajahs fairly evenly, which worries me since that likely means one of my Ajah is an elim. rn I don't know who to trust, but if people do start advocating for to overthrow an Amyrlin, than thats a pretty clear sign of who the elims are.

Question for everybody: how many Black sitters do you think there are? I'm thinking 2, simply as they would push hardest for the noms.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

but if people do start advocating for to overthrow an Amyrlin, than thats a pretty clear sign of who the elims are.

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

Question for everybody: how many Black sitters do you think there are? I'm thinking 2, simply as they would push hardest for the noms.

If you think there are 2 Black Sitters, then why do you think it's impossible for them to become Amrylin? If they do become Amrylin, isn't the correct Village position being advocating deposing them?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

If you think there are 2 Black Sitters, then why do you think it's impossible for them to become Amrylin? If they do become Amrylin, isn't the correct Village position being advocating deposing them?

hmm

idk

id have to think abt it

I think its more likely a village Amyrlin is elected 

we also don't know they're alignment as Amyrlin

I'd prefer not to depose of any Amyrin myself, but that could easily change depending on the Amyrlin's attitude

[Kasimir he/him]

14 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Both of my fellow Yellow's voted for me, and I appreciate their support, and am somewhat terrified of their expectations of me. They seem to think I am far better at this game than I am.

Jo, you seem to imply you aren't suspecting your Ajah-mates for supporting you. If you are a Villager, why do you think they would agree to back you? Do you feel there's E!agenda involved? I'm trying to understand why your Ajah seems to be fairly trusting/hakuna matata as that doesn't seem like a very Village fog-of-war mindset.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

I think its more likely a village Amyrlin is elected 

Why so? Do you think the election will be purely random?

Edited March 22, 2025 by Kasimir

[TwinStorm He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Jo, you seem to imply you aren't suspecting your Ajah-mates for supporting you. If you are a Villager, why do you think they would agree to back you? Do you feel there's E!agenda involved? I'm trying to understand why your Ajah seems to be fairly trusting/hakuna matata as that doesn't seem like a very Village fog-of-war mindset.

Edited to add:

Why so? Do you think the election will be purely random?

well, I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think rn we have any firm suspicions on any of the Sitters, so its a coin toss to me rn

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Jo, you seem to imply you aren't suspecting your Ajah-mates for supporting you. If you are a Villager, why do you think they would agree to back you? Do you feel there's E!agenda involved? I'm trying to understand why your Ajah seems to be fairly trusting/hakuna matata as that doesn't seem like a very Village fog-of-war mindset.

If I have been implying that, then it hasn't been deliberate.

I have 2 doc-mates (Obviously). One of them I had a lengthy back and forth with about which of us should be sitter, for largely differing reasons. One thought they would be better at it, but also wanted to see what I would do with it, and recognized that I obviously wanted it more. We ended up mutually agreeing to have me go for it. this One could be lying/manipulating me. It is possible, though not probable, that they initially were gunning for the Sitter Position because they were an Elim, but when they repeated my strong push for the Seat, they were told that it wouldn't be necessary, because other Elims were already going to get Seats with less suspicion.  I consider this scenario to be possible but improbable because if it were the case, I don't think they would have switched to calling me a villager. I think they would have maintained an air of suspicion on me to make Stilling me later on easier. Instead they have settled comfortably into thinking I'm a villager, though they expect to be able to figure me out if I'm not. IDK, they probably would be able to. I'm very much out of practice at being an Eliminator.

Two, on the other hand, supported me for Sitter because they believed they would be Stilled if they were Sitter, and they didn't want One to be Sitter. . . Okay, well now that I'm typing that out, that feels a lot more suspicious tbh. I do think that One would have gotten further towards the Amarlyn Seat than I will, and I don't see why Two thinks they would have gotten Stilled as a Sitter. I probably should be more suspicious of that. I unfortunately have to go to work now (I'm going to be late due to typing this up as is (Work sucks, I don't respect my boss, and I don't get in trouble for being only 15 minutes late, so I'm not too worried)) but when I get home, I'll try to find the time to thoroughly reread my doc, and give Two a better lookover.

[OoklaApologist She/her]

10 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

New question, is there an abbreviation or nickname you prefer over TOW? Of would you prefer we call you by ThatOneWorldhopper?

And can I call you Hopper?

[Kasimir he/him]

On 3/21/2025 at 9:57 AM, KelsierApologist said:

On the contrary, in my doc, I’m not fighting for it. I know I’m the only one I can truly v clear, but I also know that I’m, in many ways, not the right person for the job. I wouldn’t make it through the game, or even the first few nights, without being stilled, and getting a seat is more important than being the nomination. I trust my candidate to act with prudence, and, as their doc mate, I can observe and read them in a way others cannot. Finally, if I do suspect they are elims, I will call for them to be stilled, and I will repeat that call, because I feel it is important to do so. I think we should choose the best candidate, and I am not that.

For the record, if Polly said this and then voted Jo, I'm rioting.

[OoklaApologist She/her]

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

that likely means one of my Ajah is an elim.

I agree with this paranoia. I’ve been only sharing game analysis in the thread in case I get eliminated for one of my speculations

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

For the record, if Polly said this and then voted Jo, I'm rioting.

Not 100% related, but I want to get the ball rolling on pair claiming. My non-seat candidate docmate is

Spoiler

Twinstorm

 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:

Not 100% related, but I want to get the ball rolling on pair claiming. My non-seat candidate docmate is

 

Too late, I already beat you to it by mentioning my Ajah-mate is Ash and I'm wary of him

4 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:

I agree with this paranoia. I’ve been only sharing game analysis in the thread in case I get eliminated for one of my speculations

I think it's fine to do both. I've been using the doc as a way to feel out the rest of my Ajah, but also conveying suspicions or anything important to the thread.

I'm starting to be very wary of TUF as well, actually. Unfortunately, Sitter, but that's something to talk about going forward into the Night.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

24 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:

I agree with this paranoia. I’ve been only sharing game analysis in the thread in case I get eliminated for one of my speculations

Not 100% related, but I want to get the ball rolling on pair claiming. My non-seat candidate docmate is

  Hide contents

Twinstorm

 

yeppers!  

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 

Too late, I already beat you to it by mentioning my Ajah-mate is Ash and I'm wary of him

I think it's fine to do both. I've been using the doc as a way to feel out the rest of my Ajah, but also conveying suspicions or anything important to the thread.

I'm starting to be very wary of TUF as well, actually. Unfortunately, Sitter, but that's something to talk about going forward into the Night.

why TUF? mostly just curious, I don't exactly have a good read on him.

[Teldris Anuar]

The miasma of paranoia was taking its root in the tower, and thank the maker Tesan was so far unbothered. She had no interest in the position of sitter, or becoming the bloody amyrlin, just in finding someone that would not impede her work and would allow her to open the few doors that reamined closed even to an aes sedai. The question of course was, is the new sitter the correct person to help her? They had lobbied for the position eagerly, and had gotten it by the breadth of a hair. Well, maybe they would use all that energy to get all this mess sorted fast. Now it was time to wait and observe, one can not hope to reach a correct conclusion without a good deal of observation first.

Edit: forgot a word

Edited March 22, 2025 by Teldris Anuar

[|TJ| he/him]

Please welcome @Aeternum into the game, they will be replacing Experience. 

[OoklaApologist She/her]

Hi Aet!!!!