QF71: Cycle Four: To Bee or Not To Bee

[Wierdo]

2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail:

Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1.

Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do).

Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well.

Pick your poison, ig.

Yeah.. 

[Aeternum]

I didn't include a scenario if we lynch TUA, but I'd guess it would end like the Cash scenario, albeit a lower chance of best case because TUA gives me at least a little to work with for a TR.

Votes today are 2 for Cash and one for TUA, right?

Edit: yes I'm gambling off of TUA being a good guy this game lol

Edit edit: this is when I need Kas lol

Edited May 9 by Aeternum

[Weaver of Lies]

20 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail:

Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1.

Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do).

Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well.

Pick your poison, ig.

Edit: this is only on a ML. Ideally, we hit the elim today and win.

Yeah…I’m not sure. I still find Wierdo more suspicious, but I could definitely be wrong.

[Aeternum]

6 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

Yeah…I’m not sure. I still find Wierdo more suspicious, but I could definitely be wrong.

What do you think about TUA and Cash's reasons for why the other is wolf?

I really want to have more reasons to be confident that you're town lol

[Weaver of Lies]

11 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

What do you think about TUA and Cash's reasons for why the other is wolf?

I really want to have more reasons to be confident that you're town lol

I don’t think I managed to catch all of it, I can go back and read through it in a bit. But from what I remember, they both have good points and I think I see a grudge between the two of them. It could be clouding their judgement and it’s definitely causing them to focus on pretty much just each other. I don’t think I can trust either of them right now.

Edit: I’m leaning more towards cash being village, some of that due to Kas’s vote before Bee being on TUA. I know he said it wasn’t permanent, but I think it was telling in a way.

Edited May 9 by Weaver of Lies

[Aeternum]

17 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

I don’t think I managed to catch all of it, I can go back and read through it in a bit. But from what I remember, they both have good points and I think I see a grudge between the two of them. It could be clouding their judgement and it’s definitely causing them to focus on pretty much just each other. I don’t think I can trust either of them right now.

Edit: I’m leaning more towards cash being village, some of that due to Kas’s vote before Bee being on TUA. I know he said it wasn’t permanent, but I think it was telling in a way.

Reasonable

Thoughts on this interaction? I am desperate for opinions lol

(+ The few posts)

[Weaver of Lies]

5 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Reasonable

Thoughts on this interaction? I am desperate for opinions lol

(+ The few posts)

This is one of the posts that makes me most suspicious. He says he doesn’t have focus…sounds like an Elim. Then he says a joke type statement to redirect focus.

[Aeternum]

26 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

This is one of the posts that makes me most suspicious. He says he doesn’t have focus…sounds like an Elim. Then he says a joke type statement to redirect focus.

Yeah I agree with that.

@The Unknown Ajah I saw you lurking - what was your opinion on this as well? 

[Cash67]

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

What about this ^

I'm confused why you're holding a grudge on the vote.

Not holding a grudge per say, but considering that was the first interaction for this game, I might be conformation biasing. Like this post makes me think along the same lines as Weaver, because it is something e!Cash might do. But also once again the first knee jerk reaction vote kinda makes me split between new villager copying action versus elim trying to stir the pot early game. 

33 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

This is one of the posts that makes me most suspicious. He says he doesn’t have focus…sounds like an Elim. Then he says a joke type statement to redirect focus.

1 hour ago, Aeternum said:

Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail:

Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1.

Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do).

Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well.

Pick your poison, ig.

Edit: this is only on a ML. Ideally, we hit the elim today and win.

Yeah if we are wrong it is a 50/50 shot. 

 

 

[Weaver of Lies]

Wierdo

It’ll take a fair amount of convincing to change that.

[The Unknown Ajah]

9 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Yeah I agree with that.

@The Unknown Ajah I saw you lurking - what was your opinion on this as well? 

I mean, I was fully willing to commit to a Cash/Wierdo team a second ago, so my opinions on him aren't great. That post is pretty eh. Could go either way for a low active newbie.

[Aeternum]

6 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Not holding a grudge per say, but considering that was the first interaction for this game, I might be conformation biasing. Like this post makes me think along the same lines as Weaver, because it is something e!Cash might do. But also once again the first knee jerk reaction vote kinda makes me split between new villager copying action versus elim trying to stir the pot early game. 

Yeah if we are wrong it is a 50/50 shot. 

 

 

Alright

Also can you answer: 

Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA?

please? *bribes you with large amounts of salmon*

6 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

Wierdo

It’ll take a fair amount of convincing to change that.

Now dying in the hill (perhaps literally) that Weaver and Weirdo aren't paired.

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

I mean, I was fully willing to commit to a Cash/Wierdo team a second ago, so my opinions on him aren't great. That post is pretty eh. Could go either way for a low active newbie.

Did something happen to that idea?

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

Alright

Also can you answer: 

Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA?

please? *bribes you with large amounts of salmon*

Now dying in the hill (perhaps literally) that Weaver and Weirdo aren't paired.

Did something happen to that idea?

I thought this:

8 hours ago, Cash67 said:

WRONG THREAD WIERDO GOSH DANG IT. 

was an elim slip.

Apparently it's related to something else.

Edited May 9 by The Unknown Ajah

[Aeternum]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

I thought this:

was an elim slip.

Apparently it's related to something else.

Ah ok. I had the exact same ?! reaction when seeing that lol, but yeah I don't think it's related.

[Quivil]

It's just about The Game. The one that you lose whenever you remember it.

--------

I am not entirely caught up yet, but I do have some thoughts.

TUA/Cash are probably not E/E (I know, this is obvious to everyone else, just let me get my thoughts down.)

Weaver/Wierdo are (probably) not E/E

I'm leaning village on Aet.

I'm leaning a bit elim on Weaver and TUA, but the reason I'm leaning elim on Weaver is likely NAI. (things changed while I was typing this up.)

TUA said to vote Cash and that he'd explain later. This could be to get us to lylo (where e!TUA would probably win,) and I don't like that idea.

From what I've seen, even with homework and school Wierdo is being quieter than I'd expect. (Maybe that's just because he's better at managing priorities and such than I was when I first started playing SE in school *shrug*) Also, often SE has a way of taking over your brain space whether or not you want it to if you're checking it enough.

Edit (sorry): I suppose if TUA and Cash were e/e, TUA would not be trying to die on the "Kill Cash!" hill.

Edited May 9 by Quivil

[Aeternum]

2 minutes ago, Quivil said:

TUA said to vote Cash and that he'd explain later. This could be to get us to lylo (where e!TUA would probably win,) and I don't like that idea.

Very true.

@The Unknown Ajah still waiting for this explanation.

I feel that I'm misreading TUA. Perhaps if I felt more confident with the idea of v!Cash.

3 minutes ago, Quivil said:

Also, often SE has a way of taking over your brain space whether or not you want it to if you're checking it enough.

Me who has been online the Shard all day today because I can't stop thinking about this lol

[Wierdo]

47 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

Wierdo

It’ll take a fair amount of convincing to change that.

Eh, honestly, because of your constant pushing since Yesterday, I think I may vote you back Wol

18 minutes ago, Quivil said:

 

From what I've seen, even with homework and school Wierdo is being quieter than I'd expect. (Maybe that's just because he's better at managing priorities and such than I was when I first started playing SE in school *shrug*) Also, often SE has a way of taking over your brain space whether or not you want it to if you're checking it enough.

 

Honestly, it's just my classes not letting me have my Chromebook out

[Aeternum]

5 minutes ago, Wierdo said:

Eh, honestly, because of your constant pushing since Yesterday, I think I may vote you back Wol

Hm.

Do I call this a generic new player thing, or do I say this fits a newbie elim. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

I won't be around for EoD today, going to sleep in an hour for real this time.

[Quivil]

I need to go to bed.

TUA.

See y'all tomorrow.

[The Unknown Ajah]

2 minutes ago, Quivil said:

I need to go to bed.

TUA.

See y'all tomorrow.

No no no, we can't be split today if we split the vote the elims can cause a v!exe without even revealing themselves. 

[Aeternum]

I believe that ties Cash and TUA at 2 each? Plus there's a vote on Weirdo.

Aaaaaaaaargh. 

  Edit

1 minute ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

No no no, we can't be split today if we split the vote the elims can cause a v!exe without even revealing themselves. 

Give me a reason to trust you're town

Edited May 9 by Aeternum

[The Unknown Ajah]

25 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Very true.

@The Unknown Ajah still waiting for this explanation.

I feel that I'm misreading TUA. Perhaps if I felt more confident with the idea of v!Cash.

Me who has been online the Shard all day today because I can't stop thinking about this lol

There might be another post I made this cycle, but this mostly covers my reasons.

10 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Cash: Pretty strong e/e connections with e!RBM. Most common denominator teammate with any other person. Is heavily pushing me which is actually imperically tested to be an elim tell. I'm not kidding on that btw. Probably don't need to explain that right now but it is a thing that has worked in the past.

Also, we cannot afford to be split today. It's far too easy for the elims to interfere, if not an outright hammer. I think if we exe anyone other than Cash today, a v!flip ruins us. If we exe Cash, even if we get a v!flip, we go into exlo in a better situation. 

This was the post I was actually working on when Quivil posted.

[Aeternum]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Also, we cannot afford to be split today. It's far too easy for the elims to interfere, if not an outright hammer. I think if we exe anyone other than Cash today, a v!flip ruins us. If we exe Cash, even if we get a v!flip, we go into exlo in a better situation. 

Why

[The Unknown Ajah]

4 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I believe that ties Cash and TUA at 2 each? Plus there's a vote on Weirdo.

Aaaaaaaaargh. 

  Edit

Give me a reason to trust you're town

I'm about as firmly in my v!meta as I get.

I voted a confirmed elim c1 when Kas explicitly said he wanted to create a train on them if he had the numbers.

There is a consistent track record of elims being the first ones to vote me. I talk about it with Kas in some old games. Cash falls very firmly into that trap record.

[Cash67]

1 hour ago, Aeternum said:

Alright

Also can you answer: 

Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA?

please? *bribes you with large amounts of salmon*

Now dying in the hill (perhaps literally) that Weaver and Weirdo aren't paired.

Did something happen to that idea?

Because I think for sure that TUA is an elim. My vote was not going to change the outcome, it was 3 or 4 to 1. I took the time to show my reasoning, and then after the train formed, there was no point in changing. My vote was there as a reminder that we needed to discuss TUA next cycle. 

1 hour ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

I thought this:

was an elim slip.

Apparently it's related to something else.

Yeah its related to the game (lost it again). You can check my post history.