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State of the Sanderson 2023


Pagerunner

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This year's State of the Sanderson is up, for those who haven't seen it yet:

https://www.brandonsanderson.com/state-of-the-sanderson-2023/

A lot of stuff in there about the Kickstarter and future Kickstarters and collaborations and such. But there's also some pretty concrete plans about future books coming in the Cosmere (with Dan's series and Isaac's book thrown in there somewhere):

  • December 2024: Wind and Truth
  • Spring 2025: Skyward Legacy One(?)
  • December 2025: White Sand Novel/Dark One(?)
  • Spring 2026: Skyward Legacy Two(?)
  • December 2026: Skyward Legacy Three(?)
  • December 2026: Horneater(?)
  • December 2028: TBD
  • December 2028: Ghostbloods 1
  • Summer 2029: Elantris 2
  • December 2029: Ghostbloods 2
  • Summer 2030: Elantris 3
  • December 2030: Ghostbloods 3

(Granted, these have never been accurate beyond, like, two years. So we'll see how far these slip back as Brandon decides to write unplanned stuff. Also, I think the December 2028 TBD is supposed to be for December 2027, the convention release.)

If Brandon can successfully hold off on publishing any major books for four years, he'll have that backlog he talked about in his early career, where he doesn't have to rush to finish a book to get it out. He'll be able to knock out a whole Stormlight book for 2031 at this rate, and he'll be pretty easily able to keep his yearly December tentpole release. It'll just take a bit of a reset here.

And, truth be told... I'm ready for a break from new Cosmere material. I think there's a lot of stuff in Rhythm of War I still didn't get a chance to unpack fully, with regards to the realmatic theory introduced. A nice long break from new books will cool off some of the hype, maybe knock signing lines down to a manageable level (perhaps everybody can get a turn at Dragonsteel 2027?). Or maybe I can catch him at another convention again. I'm also looking forward to doing a nice, slow reread, take a lot of notes and such, without worrying about having to start over with a new book. I won't mind the fandom cooling down a bit.

And, hey, then we've got the look to the future. Series that are mentioned, but aren't even on the projected release schedule (not even counting the Mistborn Era Four grand finale):

  • Nightblood
  • The Night Brigade
  • Dragonsteel
  • The Silence Divine
  • The Grand Apparatus
  • Mythos
  • the Aether World book series

I would honestly not be surprised if one of those slipped in as the 2027 release. If Brandon gets a little bit ahead on the others, he can squeeze something in and push it through editorial and publishing while he sits on the others. But, man, when is he gonna find time to write most of these? Even Nightblood, which is such a layup for "write a book when I find time to squeeze one in," can't even get on the schedule. He'll have, like, eight break slots for the back half of Stormlight (if he writes two books between each Stormlight book, which he's kept up with for the past few years), so that could cover everything if the Aethers only get a trilogy and Mythos and Grand Apparatus are standalones. That'd actually be a pretty neat way of doing it:

  • 2031: Nightblood
  • 2032: Stormlight 6
  • 2033: Aether 1
  • 2034: Silence Divine
  • 2035: Stormlight 7
  • 2036: Aether 2
  • 2037: Night Brigade
  • 2038: Stormlight 8
  • 2039: Aether 3
  • 2040: Mythos
  • 2041: Stormlight 9
  • 2042: Aether 4
  • 2043: Stormlight 10
  • 2044: Grand Apparatus
  • 2045: Dragonsteel 1
  • 2046: Dragonsteel 2
  • 2047: Dragonsteel 3
  • 2048: Mistborn Finale 1
  • 2049: Mistborn Finale 2
  • 2050: Mistborn Finale 3
  • 2051: Rithmatist 2

Which would put Brandon at 75 years old when he finishes. Which is actually a few years ahead of projection I made four years ago, where I was assuming Brandon would consistently be cooling down with YA trilogies like Reckoners and Skyward. If he wants to focus on Cosmere and offload non-Cosmere as collaborations, then all those trilogies turn into these bonus Cosmere books. Which, honestly, I would be pretty thrilled with.

Maybe I'll revisit that publication timeline chart after SA5, when I've got more time.

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i was hoping for more on the mistborn movie. one year ago he said he'd be surprised if he didn't have anything to share next year. now he mentions a mistborn movie being on hold, which by itself implies there is something a lot more solid than just selling rights to somebody. but that's all the info i can find

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19 minutes ago, king of nowhere said:

i was hoping for more on the mistborn movie. one year ago he said he'd be surprised if he didn't have anything to share next year. now he mentions a mistborn movie being on hold, which by itself implies there is something a lot more solid than just selling rights to somebody. but that's all the info i can find

I think that because of the WGA and the SAG-AFTRA strikes, the company that owns the rights wasn't able to do anything with it.

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57 minutes ago, king of nowhere said:

i was hoping for more on the mistborn movie. one year ago he said he'd be surprised if he didn't have anything to share next year. now he mentions a mistborn movie being on hold, which by itself implies there is something a lot more solid than just selling rights to somebody. but that's all the info i can find

Ik he mentioned at Dragonsteel that they got to the point where that there were people on a stage reading lines and wearing mist cloaks. He also said something along the lines of "Studios are scared. They didn't want to take a risk."

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2 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

Just wondering, and I know y’all don’t have the answers, but why will KoWt come out in a year when his website has it practically written?

Because the revisions need to happen, the drafting, the editing, the art, the cover art, the marketing, and more all needs to happen before the book releases.

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1 minute ago, Ookla the Stormy said:

Just trying to do the positive thinking thing here, haha

XD

I'm just glad we're getting more elantris hopefully soon. Horneater's going to be a nice stormlight update whenever we get that. So that's something.

I wonder how the popularity of the books is going to go in the next few years. Is SA going to take the back seat for a bit like Elantris? I wonder if elantris will explode with popularity with the new books. I hope it does. Elantris gets far too much hate for being an actually really good book. 

MB will just always be the big juggernaut tho.

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1 hour ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

XD

I'm just glad we're getting more elantris hopefully soon. Horneater's going to be a nice stormlight update whenever we get that. So that's something.

I wonder how the popularity of the books is going to go in the next few years. Is SA going to take the back seat for a bit like Elantris? I wonder if elantris will explode with popularity with the new books. I hope it does. Elantris gets far too much hate for being an actually really good book. 

MB will just always be the big juggernaut tho.

Oh, you are right, I am sure Cosmere will still be exciting and full of revelations and edge-of-the-seat moments.

I love Elantris too (maybe it will indeed get the attention it deserves?), and can't wait to see what the ghostbloods are up to in Era 3.

It's just... Stormlight is definitely my favourite series and I know I'll miss it A LOT.

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1 minute ago, Ookla the Stormy said:

Oh, you are right, I am sure Cosmere will still be exciting and full of revelations and edge-of-the-seat moments.

I love Elantris too (maybe it will indeed get the attention it deserves?), and can't wait to see what the ghostbloods are up to in Era 3.

It's just... Stormlight is definitely my favourite series and I know I'll miss it A LOT.

Me too! Stormlight is so good. Yet other stuff needs room to breath without the awesomeness of Dalinar, Kaladin and Shallan looming over them.

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I think you're right about the backlog thing - I think it's an intentional strategy and if he can stick to it honestly I think it will be really good for him personally and for us as fans.  I personally feel like the quality of his writing (though still good) has been going down since probably Oathbringer.  It rebounds a bit when he gets to try something new like the first Skyward, or his first Secret Project.  But when he feels boxed in and he's writing just because he's promised us he would, he loses his creativity and the books just don't feel right.  I know a lot of fans just really want to see the next thing in Cosmere and find out the next secret.  But for me, those secrets really fall flat if I don't care about the characters and I'm not right there with them thinking holy crap what does this mean for them and their world.  Lately it feels more like the secrets are laid out for people who care the most about the "laws of physics" of the Cosmere.  Which is great for a lot of people, but isn't for me.

If he assumes 300k per year and writing 3 Ghostblood novels at 200k each plus two Elantris novels at 200 k that puts him at 1 million words to write.  That would be about 3 and a third years.  So you'd be looking at him done with all three in early/mid 2028.  That gives him two and a half years of "quiet time" to write what he wants without pressure.  Imagine what he could do with that time.  I think it leaves him free to really set up the second Stormlight pentology on solid footing.  Maybe he'll come up with a new format for the back half that lets him write them without so much burnout.  Or, maybe he jumps to a different planned trilogy while slowly writing SA in the background.  If it's successful, I could see him trying to write all his major trilogies/pentologies/etc in one go.  Releasing public plans many years in advance (in my uninformed opinion) may have led to him feeling a bit boxed in creatively.

It'll be sad to go years without a major Sanderson release, but I think it will be worth it.  Heck, even if he just needs 2 years away from writing, he deserves it.

Edited by agrabes
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32 minutes ago, agrabes said:

I think you're right about the backlog thing - I think it's an intentional strategy and if he can stick to it honestly I think it will be really good for him personally and for us as fans.  I personally feel like the quality of his writing (though still good) has been going down since probably Oathbringer.  It rebounds a bit when he gets to try something new like the first Skyward, or his first Secret Project.  But when he feels boxed in and he's writing just because he's promised us he would, he loses his creativity and the books just don't feel right.  I know a lot of fans just really want to see the next thing in Cosmere and find out the next secret.  But for me, those secrets really fall flat if I don't care about the characters and I'm not right there with them thinking holy crap what does this mean for them and their world.  Lately it feels more like the secrets are laid out for people who care the most about the "laws of physics" of the Cosmere.  Which is great for a lot of people, but isn't for me.

If he assumes 300k per year and writing 3 Ghostblood novels at 200k each plus two Elantris novels at 200 k that puts him at 1 million words to write.  That would be about 3 and a third years.  So you'd be looking at him done with all three in early/mid 2028.  That gives him two and a half years of "quiet time" to write what he wants without pressure.  Imagine what he could do with that time.  I think it leaves him free to really set up the second Stormlight pentology on solid footing.  Maybe he'll come up with a new format for the back half that lets him write them without so much burnout.  Or, maybe he jumps to a different planned trilogy while slowly writing SA in the background.  If it's successful, I could see him trying to write all his major trilogies/pentologies/etc in one go.  Releasing public plans many years in advance (in my uninformed opinion) may have led to him feeling a bit boxed in creatively.

It'll be sad to go years without a major Sanderson release, but I think it will be worth it.  Heck, even if he just needs 2 years away from writing, he deserves it.

^^^^ this.

I agree 100%

I feel like Oathbringer was a masterpiece. But after that, things have been slowly declining. Skyward, Starsight, Yumi, Tress and most of Rhythm of War were good, though. Defiant, TLM, Cytonic, Dawnshard, Frugal Wizard and, in my humble opinion, Sunlit man were... less so. I hope he gets to where he can write better in ways that don't burn him out.

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This schedule raises a fundamental question.

How is it possible that the Ghostblood series will not utterly spoil the second half of Stormlight Archive?

On 12/20/2023 at 4:58 AM, Pagerunner said:

If Brandon can successfully hold off on publishing any major books for four years, he'll have that backlog he talked about in his early career, where he doesn't have to rush to finish a book to get it out. He'll be able to knock out a whole Stormlight book for 2031 at this rate, and he'll be pretty easily able to keep his yearly December tentpole release. It'll just take a bit of a reset here.

Brandon himself may be capable of that. But it seems impossible for Dan Wells to not publish Cosmere stuff for that long.

And whatever Boatload of Mummies will eventually be called, it should also come out during that period.

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12 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

How is it possible that the Ghostblood series will not utterly spoil the second half of Stormlight Archive?

I wonder the same, but I think we were given a hint in the TLM, where

Spoiler

we are told that Roshar is closed off for travel. Whatever is happening there, the planet appears to be isolated and will likely not affect the rest of the Cosmere for a while. Except, perhaps something like Shallan and Rock cameos.

 

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17 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

This schedule raises a fundamental question.

How is it possible that the Ghostblood series will not utterly spoil the second half of Stormlight Archive?

It will, to some degree. Cosmere spoilers:

Spoiler

SA spoils Mistborn Era 1 ending and it spoils that Kelsier is alive - of course that's only if you haven't read the Mistborn series, and there are people like this. 

But when Era 3 will start, it will be 60-70 years after SA has finished, thus this will be just a history at this point. Only for Cosmere aware people, like Ghostbloods, others would be oblivious. And even Ghostbloods won't be talking about stuff that happened 70 years ago - they already talked about it, made decisions and solved problems. 

I expect similar mentions like we have in TLM or SA letters. In TLM it was only said that Roshar is inaccessible for Ghostbloods, which spoils nothing as this can mean anything. In SA letters we were informed that a dual Shard holding both Preservation and Ruin is a thing now, which spoils the ending of HoA, but didn't name-drop Harmony nor its Vessels. And RoW hints that Kelsier is alive. 

At most I expect Ghostbloods to consider Roshar as a hostile, rival power, but I wouldn't expect them to explain what led to this. That's not bad, that can only serve us to make more theories.

 

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12 minutes ago, alder24 said:

It will, to some degree. Cosmere spoilers:

  Hide contents

SA spoils Mistborn Era 1 ending and it spoils that Kelsier is alive - of course that's only if you haven't read the Mistborn series, and there are people like this. 

But when Era 3 will start, it will be 60-70 years after SA has finished, thus this will be just a history at this point. Only for Cosmere aware people, like Ghostbloods, others would be oblivious. And even Ghostbloods won't be talking about stuff that happened 70 years ago - they already talked about it, made decisions and solved problems. 

I expect similar mentions like we have in TLM or SA letters. In TLM it was only said that Roshar is inaccessible for Ghostbloods, which spoils nothing as this can mean anything. In SA letters we were informed that a dual Shard holding both Preservation and Ruin is a thing now, which spoils the ending of HoA, but didn't name-drop Harmony nor its Vessels. And RoW hints that Kelsier is alive. 

At most I expect Ghostbloods to consider Roshar as a hostile, rival power, but I wouldn't expect them to explain what led to this. That's not bad, that can only serve us to make more theories.

 

(Cosmere spoilers)

Spoiler

Well, I hope that Roshar itself will not be history. In The Lost Metal you could get away with Roshar being inaccessible. Presumably this will not be permanent and the second half of Stormlight Archive will resolve it.

Yet Scadrial has been bombed into awareness. Hundreds of important people have seen a perpendicularity. It seems to me that by the time of Ghostbloods the existance of the Cosmere should be in the school books. You should see worldhoppers openly living in the major cities.

 

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