Did Taravangian direct the Roshone Affair?

[arrietajp]

Taravangian went to the Nightwatcher some time after Gavilar's death. And the Roshone affair happened shortly before that. So he would not have been able to direct the affair. 

However, if he did, it would tight up a lot of aspects together. Basically Moash killing Elhokar, Kaladin enllsting in Amaram's army, Tien and Helaran dying, and Shallan seeking Jasnah could all be linked with one prescient action by Taravangian.

That's basically a huge part of Kaladin, Moash, and Shallan's backstory in one single affair. 

Could the Roshone affair have been Taravangian's doing event though he had not seen the Nightwatcher at the time of the affair? 

Edited November 11, 2023 by arrietajp
Add keywords (also tried to change forum but could not)

[alder24]

17 hours ago, arrietajp said:

Taravangian went to the Nightwatcher some time after Gavilar's death. And the Roshone affair happened shortly before that. So he would not have been able to direct the affair. 

However, if he did, it would tight up a lot of aspects together. Basically Moash killing Elhokar, Kaladin enllsting in Amaram's army, Tien and Helaran dying, and Shallan seeking Jasnah could all be linked with one prescient action by Taravangian.

That's basically a huge part of Kaladin, Moash, and Shallan's backstory in one single affair. 

Could the Roshone affair have been Taravangian's doing event though he had not seen the Nightwatcher at the time of the affair? 

Not everything has to be tied together. I don't think it's possible. Back then he didn't have this drive to control everything, I don't see any reason for a king of a small city state to get involved in affairs in Alethkar. Why would he get involved with some low level Lighteye owning a few silversmiths? There is nothing for Taravangian to gain from it. There was no Diagram, no plan to control Roshar, no plan to save Roshar. He would have no interest in killing two old silversmiths in Kholinar. Roshone has enough reasons to act on his own here.

[Letryx13]

On 11/11/2023 at 7:42 AM, alder24 said:

Not everything has to be tied together. I don't think it's possible. Back then he didn't have this drive to control everything, I don't see any reason for a king of a small city state to get involved in affairs in Alethkar. Why would he get involved with some low level Lighteye owning a few silversmiths? There is nothing for Taravangian to gain from it. There was no Diagram, no plan to control Roshar, no plan to save Roshar. He would have no interest in killing two old silversmiths in Kholinar. Roshone has enough reasons to act on his own here.

Agreed. It would be almost impossible for him to have set that up, and it wouldn't have benefited him regardless. I do think the Rashone affair will come up again in book 5, but it will deal with Kaladin and Moash, and Moash's motivation for everything he has done.

[Returned he/him]

On 11/11/2023 at 6:42 AM, alder24 said:

There was no Diagram

I think that this is the key insight. Before the Diagram there's no basis for Taravangian engaging in that kind of incredibly subtle, impactful sort of scheming (never mind successfully!). The ability to make those sorts of plays is derived entirely from the Diagram's incredible density of information and extrapolation, and so even if Taravangian had wanted to meddle like that it seems impossibly unlikely that he would have been able to do so.

All that said, it's 100% possible that someone or something did set those events in motion (presumably via access to Fortune). But probably not Taravangian.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

Could Taravangian have set that up? Almost certainly (99.9999%) not (because of the timeline, as you mentioned). Could Odium or Cultivation? Yes, either of them could. I would think Odium the more likely of the two, but both have detailed foresight and either could have done so.

Edited November 21, 2023 by JohnnyKaizen
clarification