Mid-Range Game 66: Knights of Wind and Truth

[STINK]

Anyone know where the people who haven't voted Matrim are at

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Mat. 

Can't easily check votes but can sacrifice control of 2nd place to guarantee Mat exe.

[Mat]

Oh yeah second place

Aeoryi

Cause Kas says he doesn’t want it

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Mat (7): Stink, Aeoryi, Kas, JNV, TJ, Archer, Devotary
Aeoryi (1): Mat
None (1): Wit @ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

Elims can get up to 4 votes probably, 5 if they have a Bondsmith.

[ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ]

25 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Mat (7): Stink, Aeoryi, Kas, JNV, TJ, Archer, Devotary
Aeoryi (1): Mat
None (1): Wit @ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

Elims can get up to 4 votes probably, 5 if they have a Bondsmith.

Mat

like earlier, I think he might be using me to emphasize villager as an elim

 

[Aeoryi]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh yeah second place

Aeoryi

Cause Kas says he doesn’t want it

You make EXCELLENT points. We almost forgot about second train lol. So glad you reminded us.

Aeoryi

Mat

... Updated VC

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Mat (6): Stink, Kas, JNV, TJ, Archer, Devotary
Aeoryi (2): Mat, Aeoryi
None (1): Wit @ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ

Elims can get up to 4 votes probably, 5 if they have a Bondsmith.

 

 

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

You make EXCELLENT points. We almost forgot about second train lol. So glad you reminded us.

Aeoryi

Mat

... Updated VC

 

We cannot afford second trains. Elims can hammer us. We have to give up second trains and just sus anyone who is not voting Mat. Please stop this.

God am I glad I haven't slept yet.

Edited to add:

There's probably some world in which they hammer Archer into 5WR but we don't have the resources to do much about it. We have to pick our fights.

@Devotary of Spontaneity - If you think the numbers support it, let people know, otherwise I'm really going to sleep because I'm done here.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat]

If you’re that worried about elim power at this stage why are you not even considering that your SB is lying?

[STINK]

It is kinda crazy to vote for someone then say they're still sus but you want an ideal so you switch off like

[Aeoryi]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

We cannot afford second trains. Elims can hammer us. We have to give up second trains and just sus anyone who is not voting Mat. Please stop this.

God am I glad I haven't slept yet.

Edited to add:

There's probably some world in which they hammer Archer into 5WR but we don't have the resources to do much about it. We have to pick our fights.

@Devotary of Spontaneity - If you think the numbers support it, let people know, otherwise I'm really going to sleep because I'm done here.

Okay.

Mat

 

Just now, STINK said:

It is kinda crazy to vote for someone then say they're still sus but you want an ideal so you switch off like

Self voting is Mat's ultimate weakness

Edited to add:

I also am losing my sanity help 

[Kasimir]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If you’re that worried about elim power at this stage why are you not even considering that your SB is lying?

It's 0831hrs. I've been up all night crunching through possibilities despite RL. You don't get to tell me when's enough and when's not. I'm not obligated to give you the threadbrawl you're demanding. I've considered it. My answer remains the same. 

Edited to add:

Village—last post from me. Vote needs to remain on Mat. Mat's attempts to fearmonger all require us to be in a more dire situation than we are right now, though we are close. Nothing justifies his current insistences on kanly and his arguments are specious.

We can't afford to cede the primary vote. Eyes on the goal. Anyone who tries to grab the Ideal is likely to be CWed by a late hammer. We don't have the numbers unfortunately. Remember: dead Elim >>> extra Ideal.

Mat's insistence on a thunderdome should be outing in any normal Elim and he knows this. This is why he's trying to justify it by fearmongering. This is a necessary exe. Goodnight to all. See you on the other side.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat]

The cycle ends in an hour. I’m not asking for a threadbrawl. I’m dead, you’ve made that plenty clear.

I’m asking to know the SB. To know the elim. Because I want to go through possibilities too. You said yourself that was my duty as someone misaccused— to do what I can to help the village as I go out. I’ve been unable to do this as you’ve kept me in the dark.

[Aeoryi]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

The cycle ends in an hour. I’m not asking for a threadbrawl. I’m dead, you’ve made that plenty clear.

I’m asking to know the SB. To know the elim. Because I want to go through possibilities too. You said yourself that was my duty as someone misaccused— to do what I can to help the village as I go out. I’ve been unable to do this as you’ve kept me in the dark.

I trust that the SB's identity will be revealed should it become relevant. This is not something you ask in the thread. 

Directly forcing the SB to claim actually ruins the SB's crediancy. To the SB; Do. Not. Claim.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you think the numbers support it, let people know, otherwise I'm really going to sleep because I'm done here.

In the worst case it could be a tie with one village defection, which isn't a likely scenario but isn't worth taking the risk, especially since Mat and Archer can hammer whatever 2nd train they want against one village defection. 2 villagers voting off train is easily within hammer range.

[Mat]

13 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I trust that the SB's identity will be revealed should it become relevant. This is not something you ask in the thread. 

Directly forcing the SB to claim actually ruins the SB's crediancy. To the SB; Do. Not. Claim.

My point is that I’m worried next turn is too late. I guess Kas & Co decided it was worth the risk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ would have liked to be in that conversation but it’s understandable I wasn’t 

That’s not how credibility works but okay :P.

[Aeoryi]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

My point is that I’m worried next turn is too late. I guess Kas & Co decided it was worth the risk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ would have liked to be in that conversation but it’s understandable I wasn’t 

That’s not how credibility works but okay :P.

In what way is it too late? Explain.

Also, I don't think you know how much Kas Kas has been putting into this game. I have my reasons for trusting him, as do many others. Do not think I didn't consider E!kas worlds too.

[Mat]

If you think I’m implying that Kas is e or that I don’t know how much Kas has put in the game you’re dead wrong on both counts lol

Too late in that me being falsely accused here means the elims likely think they can win today/tomorrow. Otherwise they wouldn’t have faked this thing.

[ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ]

54 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

You make EXCELLENT points. We almost forgot about second train lol. So glad you reminded us.

Aeoryi

Mat

... Updated VC

 

 

2 hours ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

Mat

like earlier, I think he might be using me to emphasize villager as an elim

 

Didnt I just vote?

[Aeoryi]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If you think I’m implying that Kas is e or that I don’t know how much Kas has put in the game you’re dead wrong on both counts lol

Too late in that me being falsely accused here means the elims likely think they can win today/tomorrow. Otherwise they wouldn’t have faked this thing.

...

Dude.

Do you really want me to spell out an E!kas world, featuring every other player as part of a team?

Do you genuinely want me to post an in-depth analysis of e!sb2?

I don't know exactly how you're feeling, but maybe you should take a short break from online if you're getting frustrated with the situation. This clearly is getting under your skin, and SE isn't supposed to do that. I understand that you're extremely disappointed with the lack of response to your messages, but you have to understand that you're not in the most villagery place right now.

Maybe you're villager. Maybe you're elim. But it doesn't matter. It's not that people are just going to vote you if you are elim. It's that we need your information for the thread to continue. That's unfortunate, but it's just how the cookie crumbles.

Anyways, I reiterate that if you're feeling stressed or annoyed, you should take a short break.

[Mat]

 I think that’s the worst anyone’s ever mis tone read me before lol

Kas is never evil here, he’s just pocketed.

I think not looking at an e!SB world is stupid. From my PoV, the e!SB world must be critical enough to be worrisome, and I just wish I wasn’t the only one who’s worried.

I’m totally fine. It’d be dumb not to be resigned to this. But if y’all trust that you won’t lose tomorrow, it won’t be my fault if you do  

[Aeoryi]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 I think that’s the worst anyone’s ever mis tone read me before lol

Kas is never evil here, he’s just pocketed.

I think not looking at an e!SB world is stupid. From my PoV, the e!SB world must be critical enough to be worrisome, and I just wish I wasn’t the only one who’s worried.

I’m totally fine. It’d be dumb not to be resigned to this. But if y’all trust that you won’t lose tomorrow, it won’t be my fault if you do  

My condolences, then.

So what you are trying to say is that in order for a Gambit that involves e!SB2, it would have to be extremely beneficial to the village.

[Mat]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

My condolences, then.

So what you are trying to say is that in order for a Gambit that involves e!SB2, it would have to be extremely beneficial to the village.

Extremely beneficial to the elims.

That’s the world I’m living in. That’s my concern. But the decision has been made, so it doesn’t matter at this stage.

[Aeoryi]

It is nearly rollover

And already, I can see the future

Quote

Matriam's Dice was court-martialed and executed! They were a Traitorous Edgedancer of the 1st Ideal!

I'm placing 1 clearmark on this happening

[Fifth Scholar]

The cycle is over! 

[Fifth Scholar]

Shay looked at the ring of Blades surrounding her. She raised an eyebrow, staring down Keleran, whose face looked to be carved out of something older and harder than the stone to which his visage usually drew comparisons. “All this, Captain Junior? For little old me?”

The Stoneward made no reply, other than the line of his lips growing thinner, if possible. Callar lurked behind him, Phil Swift under his arm. When the two of them had begun to argue again at the beginning, the actual captain had snapped. Hence Keleran being summoned, and the ring of Blades, and now the eerie silence which fell over the training ground in Jah Keved. The air itself was poised.

A distant rumble broke the sky. As if in a prearranged signal, the ring closed, and a thin wailing scream saw the end of Shay. His eyes, though, rather than going dead as with most Blade kills, burnt with a fiery red light. The pile of Radiants shivered at their menace. And then, from nowhere, as it seemed, in the confusion, two more flashes came out. The first, a hidden blade silently slipped between the ribs of a Truthwatcher, who fell over Keleran, coughing out his life’s blood on the cold stone. And the second, a blinding haze of fire. Callar yelped in pain as his side was singed, but there was no hope for Phil Swift. No Adhesion could save the Windrunner, and the cry of his spren was drowned only by Callar’s own yell of anguish as the Stoneward finally broke, clenching and unclenching his hands, eyes darting wildly around his diminished squad.

“What in the Ten Essences,” he intoned slowly, “is happening?”

---

Apologies for an abbreviated writeup, it’s late and I need to call people and send results and stuff >>

Matrim’s Dice (Shay) was executed to thunderous applause! He was a Traitorous Knight Edgedancer of the Second Ideal!

Matrim’s Dice (8): Aeoryi, Wit, Archer, |TJ|, JNV, Kasimir, STINK, Devotary of Spontaneity

Aeoryi (0): Matrim’s Dice

Archer (Phil Swift) was killed by the Surge of Division! He was a Loyal Knight Radiant Windrunner of the Third Ideal!

JNV was killed by traitors and was a Loyal Knight Radiant Truthwatcher of the First Ideal!

Stoneward messages:

Spoiler

Hi guys. Since we know I'm your humble Stoneward, V., I'm going to drop the excerpts from V for Vendetta and just drop my thoughts and reads. Ideally I'd do it in thread, but:

A. Bearing the brunt of Elim FUD attacks is tiring. Such tactics are fair for Elims, I'm just saying I don't care to be present/be told I should have to be present. (Applies even in a V!Mat world, since the Elims would've put me in this position... Archer, if you're alive, don't @ me, it's 5AM++ and I'm rambling and saying 'I don't want to be in the thread because it's currently unpleasant for me' but longer.)

B. I want to get a good night's sleep. It's almost 5AM at the time of writing and having dealt with my the non-fun stuff and RL stuff, you know, I deserve to not force myself up for rollover for once. IDK. Let's see. Maybe I'll still be responsible.

Fifth claims this message will go out no matter what so it means I don't have to worry. God, really hope Archer and Mat are E or this message is going to age as poorly as my Heron Delenda Est one in AG8.

Most of this message is going to deal with an E!Mat, E!Archer world. I'll hedge a bit against this at the end.

1. E!Mat, E!Archer

As a side-comment, and this is for if Archer lives, I think my main issue with E!Archer was the sobering moment I sat down and took a good hard look at what I had to endorse V!Archer. I had a series of arguments for E!Archer, and my second V!Archer point was itself 'lol wtf Kas tbh what was I smoking IDK why I think E!Archer.' That's not sustainable by C3 in a game this compact. I do think that, more than the E!slip, is reason to doubt Archer.

I think the question here is who the third teammate is. I'm leaning towards TJ right now. I'll explain.

Ultimately, Mat isn't wrong I can't absence read TJ very strongly. But if you take a look at his posts on C3, all his arguments against including him in 3pool target JNV and STINK. He slaps TJ very lightly, despite TJ also being affected by the same counterarguments. This lacuna implies to me that Mat is deliberately omitting TJ in his analysis. I think Mat is shielding TJ.

TJ also made a BS claim to me earlier this cycle. It could very well be legit, IDK. I hesitate because in a world where TJ is a BS, he's probably not Evil. Difficult to see a successful RB in that landscape, unless TJ forgot or something. (Not impossible - also note that a BS/WR team would have a lot of VM, which might be Fifth's balance to the fact the Village has more of the extra kills here.) The fact TJ made the claim early last cycle (C3) (I agree I initiated the trade) makes me wonder if it was meant to exempt him from suspicion that he could be implicated. Unsure. If I'm dead, it's on y'all to judge. But once again, I don't buy than an Elim team that knew a member was RBed doesn't actually try.

Suppose SB2 is really Village. This is our landscape:

V!EC
V!SW
V!LW
V!SB1
V!SB2
V!TW
V!ED
V!WS
V!DB

against a hypothesised team of:

E!ED
E!WR

Village, with EC, SB1, and SB2 has three roleblocks off the bat. Access to secondary RBs if WR is also Village. And more than that, Araris flipped V and that's a redirect. Another one if V!TW with Illumination.

Does E!DB really balance this? IMO it cries out for E!BS. Could be E!SW but I don't get Tension upfront and that's a jacked Village IMO. E!BS is more reasonable.

As an aside, look at the holistic picture: ED gives them some resistance to scans and roleblocks and kills, and gains Progression at Second Ideal, protecting the team. At higher levels, they can become untargetable, also giving them RB/redirect immunity. WR gains a protecc at Fourth Ideal, which helps with the team's durability. They gain extra lives at Fifth Ideal. This makes sense in light of the kill heavy landscape at later Ideals Village-side, e.g. DB, SB1, SB2. Moreover, Village kill dominance is balanced by Elim votejack dominance, with the WR and BS coming online at Second Ideal. Keep in mind that Archer also suggested all votejacks were Village. I think that's telling, since he's one of our main suspects!

Yet another very Fifth touch: BS-ED-WR have synergy, since the BS needs to use Tension to successfully allow a protect to gain an Ideal. That's the sort of coordination you're more likely to achieve E!side than V!side. They can even self-arrange it if they want to, though it's harder.

This feels correct to me as an E!team.

Let's be clear about my views: <Archer, Mat, TJ/Wit.> Wit is still potentially an E!partner but this requires Mat to play less subtly than I think Mat is capable of. Wit's behaviour also doesn't fully feel right IMO - I feel that if he were in an Elim doc, he'd receive more coaching on how to walk the line. Mat's willingness to flip on Wit once I started shading Wit echoes what happened with Raven (Village until they were conveniently on the radar) and in general, I cannot see E!Wit not being told to just sheep and distance vote this cycle. There's also the difficulty explaining the E!Wit EoD, whereas TJ could just really have been absent/busy. So I think E!TJ is more likely than E!Wit, though E!Wit is still possible.

Note: I don't think TJ lied about expecting there to be 24 hours more. What I struggle with is whether we really think E!TJ would be less likely to make that mistake. IDK, and at this stage in the game, it's not enough to give him a V!read for. I'm sorry.

Between TJ and Wit, I'd go for TJ, but could see an E!Wit world. I'm not the best at reading Elim connections and whatnot, sorry. And I guess, TJ is my bro. My heart never wants him to be Evil  

Look. As much as it #feelsbad, read C2 again, guys. Yeah TJ voted Archer but E!TJ is totally cool with attacking teammates. IMO despite having interactions with TJ and at one point, Archer suggesting E!TJ, E!Devo, Mat and Archer never vote TJ. Never pressure him when it matters. In fact, today, he doesn't appear on their radar at all. I think TJ is a better fit as a teammate. They're shielding him.

tldr; likely <Mat, Archer, TJ/Wit>

P.S. I s2g if Wit is also a Bondsmith imma done with this game >>

2. E!Mat, V!Archer

I...still struggle with E!Devo. I guess I could see this, but it doesn't feel quite right. In this V!Archer world, I'm still willing to buy V!JNV and V!STINK. I think there are rock solid V!meta reasons for both of them.

This probably means one E!partner is in <Devo, Aeo, TJ.> Good luck to y'all 

Aeo has toned down quite a bit from C1, and the reactivity is concerning. Having to switch devices probably partly accounts for it. I have to raise this as a possibility, although I'm still willing to believe V!Aeo.

I'd probably be more willing to go for V!Devo in this set. Probably. Aeo's occasional chaotic moments does make me believe V!Aeo though. So that's rough. I would argue to only look at 2. if you flip Archer and he's Village. Don't go here without an Archer flip first.

tldr; likely <Mat, Aeo/Devo, TJ/Wit> gl ig

3. V!Mat, ???

If V!Mat, I've told two in the <Aeo, JNV, STINK> pool who SB2 is. This is something you all should pursue together. Kill SB2 with fire. As far as my reads are concerned in that world...

-Believe E!Archer stonks go up, and this probably implies V!TJ if E!Archer. If Elims have double RB access, then TJ and I need to be Village as we're the antidotes. 'Need' my arse, you're probably reading this if I flip, oh whatever.
-Between Aeo and Devo, feel Devo fits better on that team. Devo and Archer would be extreme distancing.
-Possibility of E!TJ cannot be ignored. (TJ might be lying about his role FYI.)
-Unlikely E!Wit. Removing his defender doesn't make much sense.
-Tbh if this world exists nothing makes sense anymore reality is an illusion.
-Largely a comment driven by the fact the teamings don't make too much sense in this world, both in terms of roles and in terms of interactions.
-In this world, I'd probably go with a team of <SB2, Archer, Devo>, to be clear. That's the best sense I can make of it.

I think that's it from me. See all of you on the other side.

And have some pleasant music to start the next cycle!

-V.

Cycle Four has begun! It will end in about 47 hours, at 9:00 PM EST on Sunday 12 November.

There is an Exe today.

Please remember semi-open PM rules.

Player List:

1. Aeoryi as Saffron Iguana

2. Amanuensis/Experience as Gen-ku Skybreaker

3. Ravenclawjedi42 as Death-daughter-Time Edgedancer

4. |TJ| as Galatar 

5. Ashbringer as Bailis Willshaper

6. Matrim’s Dice as Shay Edgedancer

7. Archer as Phil Swift Windrunner

8. Kasimir as Keleran

9. STINK as TBD

10. Araris Valerian as Aradon Lightweaver

11. JNV Truthwatcher

12. Psiti?tēebe?t

13. Devotary of Spontaneity as Taliat/Orotha and Iolea

Good luck!