Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[Kasimir he/him]

46 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Yes, I acknowledge I also fit within this category, but I am trying to do better.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I have two questions for you.

1. We've tacitly proceeded under this profile assumption for the past three lynches, considering: Sart (technically a kill), Alpha, Xino. Do you believe they count as anything but 'low profile but active enough', given the number of posts Wiz made in this game prior to being summoned back to life by, apparently, thread ranting on activity? And do you believe that the past failures of the three Days are correctly addressed by doubling down or hard-committing, and if so, why?

2. What is the complete set of players inhabiting this profile, in your eyes?

Welp I guess that was more than two.

Edited to add:

37 minutes ago, Archer said:

I just realized LHF means low hanging fruit and isn't an acronym for... well I was reading it as low activity something something and that they weren't a good choice because of that. I also don't know what FUD means but the context is Mat is being quieter but that's okay. Which the distro wouldn't account for and it's actually a point of difference to be sussed. 

I don't extremely feel Mat is being FUD in this game, but at the time of posting, I didn't want to get targeted or killed potentially without getting that note out, especially if Mat didn't continue to be Village in the following Days.

FUD = Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt - E!Mat is very good at eroding reads certainty, IMO. Fae was softlocked Village after her Thief claim following Aman's in LG94. Mat's statement about it being a typical Aman play eroded global Village reads certainty and paved the way for a future Fae lynch. That's classic E!Mat FUD in my view. It was less grounds for sus and more 'if you see him doing this going forwards, you should probably watch out.'

41 minutes ago, Archer said:

I wouldn't say personal attack. Just a little frustrated about the meta argument that the elims would be given a thread controller. True in a normal game, not in a game where only 3/20 players start as evil and there's a high risk D1 for them. I thought I'd inoculated against it earlier but I evidently didnt do enough.

I can get that, but it isn't the only argument. The thing is, isn't a N0 convert functionally just a single one? Realistically, we're expecting N1, N2 converts as well, maybe N3 if something screwy happened.

The downside with no kill control and no thread control is that your team sort of has to hard-defend and doesn't have much room to deflect Village pushes. It's not impossible - cf. QF64 - but I'd argue there's a good reason why low thread control teams tend to be dicey. I think what I'm struggling with on the level of that argument is, why would the Elims deliberately, if lacking Odium and Ruin, also choose all low activity/radar converts? Both teams? All three slots?

Edited June 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I agree with that, the strongest part is what I found a bit surprising.

That’s fair. I’m having trouble developing any strong reads, which might have something to do with me just chilling on Silverlight and being unconnected to everything, but idk

Semi related to that is my feelings to the Archer train, which are mixed. He’s making overly definitive statements (eg saying Kas ‘came around’ regarding me as if e!me is a known fact) but also the point that the elims have to include a thread controller, in this game, I think is completely moot. It’s a conversion game. No matter who starts as evil, they can convert whoever they want, thread controllers included. Edit: I guess that doesn’t really mean anything though :P.

I’ll join on Wizard but I don’t really care who dies today I guess. If I had desktop access I’d look at EoD D2 regarding the moving trains there etc but welp

Edited June 16, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir he/him]

Like, alright, maybe let's flip the question around.

Who converts Fifth?

And who does a Fifth-converter also convert?

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Like, alright, maybe let's flip the question around.

Who converts Fifth?

And who does a Fifth-converter also convert?

You? :P.

Drake?

Both work for both questions tbh

[Elandera she/her]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I have two questions for you.

1. We've tacitly proceeded under this profile assumption for the past three lynches, considering: Sart (technically a kill), Alpha, Xino. Do you believe they count as anything but 'low profile but active enough', given the number of posts Wiz made in this game prior to being summoned back to life by, apparently, thread ranting on activity? And do you believe that the past failures of the three Days are correctly addressed by doubling down or hard-committing, and if so, why?

2. What is the complete set of players inhabiting this profile, in your eyes?

You make a good point about the recent deaths. Maybe it is time to shift the profile of who we're looking into. 

I'm not sure what you're asking with the highlighted question. Are you asking if I think Wiz fits in that category, or if the other deaths fit in there?

Other players that are low profile (not a lot of negative attention and/or attention overall) and active enough (posts consistently enough to have a presence but not make a big impact):

1. Wizard
2. TJ
3. DeTess*
4. Kasimir*
5. Araris
6. Turtle*

DeTess and Kas are an odd case because they're more active and influential, but also have avoided basically all negative attention.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You? :P.

Drake?

Both work for both questions tbh

Drake picked Odium N1, which kind of blocks anything not N0, or I suppose technically if it came in N1 first. Drake also hit Fifth, and it's odd for a player to kill their own teammate for Village cred when that doesn't go as far in this game due to the two Elim team structure.

You're welcome to flip me, but it's the wrong answer, so you'd have to have another answer after that. I hope you have one  

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Drake?

Remember that the only chances Drake had of being converted were N0 and N1.

edit: jinx

Edited June 16, 2023 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I'm not sure what you're asking with the highlighted question. Are you asking if I think Wiz fits in that category, or if the other deaths fit in there?

I'm asking if you believe that those players do not fit in that category.

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

DeTess and Kas are an odd case because they're more active and influential, but also have avoided basically all negative attention.

Yup!  You could try CWing us, that's for sure.

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Other players that are low profile (not a lot of negative attention and/or attention overall) and active enough (posts consistently enough to have a presence but not make a big impact):

Question out of curiosity.

What's your definition of attention, given the double Turtle train for a decent part of D2? 

[Elandera she/her]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm asking if you believe that those players do not fit in that category.

Yes, and no? They had varying levels of activity. I won't pretend to know for sure about Sart. I didn't pay great attention in the early cycles (an error I am working to correct), so I'm not sure what Sart's activity/attention was. The fact he was killed fairly quickly suggests he may have been lacking in the "low profile" category. Xino was floating a little low on the "active enough" scale, but fit the low profile overall. I hadn't been looking at him as a conversion, though, but as an OG elim. And Alpha, I run into the same problem as I do with Sart in regards to he died earlier than I really started to pay attention.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What's your definition of attention, given the double Turtle train for a decent part of D2?

Which has utterly disappeared since (as well as Turtle's overall presence...) It would make them a decent late convert, I think. Especially if any of the elim teams weren't successful in their early conversions, as I suggested in my first post this turn.

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yup!  You could try CWing us, that's for sure.

Don't tempt me....  

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Don't tempt me....  

No, genuinely, go ahead!

If you are truly Village, and believe this is the correct move, then you shouldn't have any inhibitions, correct? 

After all, we are still in a very grim position. This much is a fact, based off the mathematics. Certainly, pushing me will be a tad harder than pushing a player like Wiz. Which, admittedly, might be more work than an Elim team necessarily wants in the quest for vote dominance.

But of course, this is of no concern to a Villager.

Unless...

Oh, but surely not...

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Which has utterly disappeared since (as well as Turtle's overall presence...) It would make them a decent late convert, I think. Especially if any of the elim teams weren't successful in their early conversions, as I suggested in my first post this turn.

You believe the Elims are interested in converting players who don't send in actions?

I do have Turtle in nulls after discovering I miscredited TBB's roleblock to Turtle. But this seems an interesting stretch, given how inactive Turtle can be, and once again, I'm forced to question if the focus on low profile and barely active voters is opportunistic or meant to develop a CW.

4 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Yes, and no? They had varying levels of activity. I won't pretend to know for sure about Sart. I didn't pay great attention in the early cycles (an error I am working to correct), so I'm not sure what Sart's activity/attention was. The fact he was killed fairly quickly suggests he may have been lacking in the "low profile" category. Xino was floating a little low on the "active enough" scale, but fit the low profile overall. I hadn't been looking at him as a conversion, though, but as an OG elim. And Alpha, I run into the same problem as I do with Sart in regards to he died earlier than I really started to pay attention.

Sart had a single post. Barely any attention.

Xino was low profile but if you're considering Turtle active enough, Xino barely scrapes in.

Same point for Turtle as Alpha, and even softread Village on D1.

So I'd ask again: unless you are choosing a very specific and selective definition of 'low profile' and 'active enough' (which I'd argue is true enough given you've managed to add DeTess and myself into the category, a feat for which I congratulate you), do you think that the failures of the first three cycles are sufficient to motivate a shift in tactics? Or do you believe that there is some justification for doubling down, and if so, what is it?

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

If you are truly Village, and believe this is the correct move, then you shouldn't have any inhibitions, correct?

I don't believe it's the correct move, which is why I didn't pick either of you for a vote. It's worth keeping an eye on you both (hence why I put you both on the list with qualifications about profile), but your contributions outweigh those potential dangers right now.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You believe the Elims are interested in converting players who don't send in actions?

Ah. I had forgotten Turtle had admitted to not submitting an action. Also, my mental data for activity is pulling from my read of N0, the first half of D1, and the last half of D3 (the times I've actually paid attention). I remembered Turtle being fairly active in the early game, which is why they landed in the "active enough" category.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

do you think that the failures of the first three cycles are sufficient to motivate a shift in tactics? Or do you believe that there is some justification for doubling down, and if so, what is it?

I would argue that it's difficult to apply this tactic of finding conversions to D1 or D2 due to the low number of conversions at those points, which would take out Sart and Alpha as failures of this. As I stated before, I did not pursue Xino as a convert target, but a OG elim, removing him as well. Last turn was the first potential opportunity for full elim teams, which I don't think actually happened considering the lack of containment breaks. This is the first turn where we likely have all of the converts in place, when we can really be looking at good convert profiles. I don't think Archer fits that, nor does he fit OG elim, hence the suggestion to look elsewhere. Somewhere new. On a player that hasn't been looked at seriously yet, because they'd make a good convert.

Yes, there has been some mild attention on Wizard, but nothing (from my memory) that was actually threatening. I just think this constant return to Archer isn't helping anyone.

EDIT:

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Remember that the only chances Drake had of being converted were N0 and N1.

To be fair, that is half of the opportunities so far to have a conversion, and 2/3 if all conversions were perfect.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Elandera

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Drake picked Odium N1, which kind of blocks anything not N0, or I suppose technically if it came in N1 first. Drake also hit Fifth, and it's odd for a player to kill their own teammate for Village cred when that doesn't go as far in this game due to the two Elim team structure.

You're welcome to flip me, but it's the wrong answer, so you'd have to have another answer after that. I hope you have one  

What’s your answer?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm pretty sure this is the crux of why I'm being exed and I can't really defend against it. 

You've come around to Mat today, but the last time this came up you told me Mat and Szeth didn't fit the profile. And if they didn't, few people do. So you'll forgive me for being skeptical that you bringing them back in is anything other than a backup plan. 

My instinct is to dig in my heels on TBB because I don't like them being dismissed so casually, but I do have other people on the side burner. But I was also hoping to get some TBB interaction of it. Eh I'm just gonna call it a day for now

How have I dismissed you? As far as I can tell, you have barely responded to my rebuttals, yet I'm the one who's dismissing?

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

Archer has a good point. He's a terrible conversion target, and I don't really see the evidence of him being elim at the beginning. We're focusing in the wrong places. I'd like to vote Szeth for the N0/D1 reasons I mentioned last cycle, but I can see there isn't likely to be a ton of support there. So instead I turn to potential conversions. Low profile but active enough.

Wizard.

Why is he a terrible conversion target?

[Elandera she/her]

42 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Why is he a terrible conversion target?

Because he was very nearly exed D1 and has been under a consistent level of suspicion since then? If I'm not mistaken, he's been debated/voted on each turn so far, even if it didn't stick. That's a big risk for an elim team wanting to play the IKYK game.

[Archer he/him]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m having trouble developing any strong reads, 

on Silverlight 

He’s making overly definitive statements (eg saying Kas ‘came around’ regarding me as if e!me is a known fact)

I’ll join on Wizard

but I don’t really care who dies today I guess. 

didn't mean 'around to you' like agreeing evil

meant more considering as an option

imma consider you harder tho bc this post is like that water park

six red flags

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Like, alright, maybe let's flip the question around. Who converts Fifth? 

Who

that was easy

1 hour ago, The Bald Brandon said:

How have I dismissed you? As far as I can tell, you have barely responded to my rebuttals, yet I'm the one who's dismissing?

ya misread 

i said the public has dismissed ya, not you dismissed me

class dismissed 

TBB Mat

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

43 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Because he was very nearly exed D1 and has been under a consistent level of suspicion since then? If I'm not mistaken, he's been debated/voted on each turn so far, even if it didn't stick. That's a big risk for an elim team wanting to play the IKYK game.

That's legitimate, I don't remember him being contentious afterwards really, or even during. It was an odd exe c1. I think he made sense for a n2 convert, with n1 not being two unreasonable due to how we treat past exes.

Not sure about Archer backing off, though I appreciate that we came to a better understanding. 

[Kasimir he/him]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

I don't believe it's the correct move, which is why I didn't pick either of you for a vote. It's worth keeping an eye on you both (hence why I put you both on the list with qualifications about profile), but your contributions outweigh those potential dangers right now.

So this is a CC vote?

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Ah. I had forgotten Turtle had admitted to not submitting an action. Also, my mental data for activity is pulling from my read of N0, the first half of D1, and the last half of D3 (the times I've actually paid attention). I remembered Turtle being fairly active in the early game, which is why they landed in the "active enough" category.

Does this affect your view of Turtle, then? Don't recall that wrt Turtle, but Turtle has been known to do that in the past, or legit inactive out. Walin AFAIR is the one who admitted to not sending in an action.

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

I would argue that it's difficult to apply this tactic of finding conversions to D1 or D2 due to the low number of conversions at those points, which would take out Sart and Alpha as failures of this. As I stated before, I did not pursue Xino as a convert target, but a OG elim, removing him as well. Last turn was the first potential opportunity for full elim teams, which I don't think actually happened considering the lack of containment breaks. This is the first turn where we likely have all of the converts in place, when we can really be looking at good convert profiles. I don't think Archer fits that, nor does he fit OG elim, hence the suggestion to look elsewhere. Somewhere new. On a player that hasn't been looked at seriously yet, because they'd make a good convert.

Why doesn't Archer fit OG Elim?

Furthermore, if you truly believe that the conversion criteria was purely players who haven't actually really been looked at, I feel you're committed to the claim that it's purely and utterly an inexplicable mystery that Alpha died a Villager, because there's no reasonable world by your own lights in which a player who was more or less widely soft-read Village and low contribution manages not to get converted N1.

Second, if you concede, or are willing to concede that the past three days were about voting for low profile, low activity players who aren't complete inactives, isn't this logic also indicative that it's a major risk for an Elim team to decide to convert a player in the very profile the Village has been freely and consistently lynching for the past three cycles? That's the first-order problem. The second-order problem is that if you want to postulate that the Elims did that anyway, then they needed some way to actually not get that new convert lynched or killed. This more or less entails a conversion choice that affords them more thread control in light of the fact that they have vulnerable teammates who need protecting.

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Yes, there has been some mild attention on Wizard, but nothing (from my memory) that was actually threatening. I just think this constant return to Archer isn't helping anyone.

If it isn't helping anyone, isn't one option simply to lynch Archer and solve the question for once and for all?

It's clear that at least part of the ostensible Village doesn't V!read Archer. We have previously - and it is absolutely a respectable Village tactic to simply say, "We need this flip, because if not, we'll be bickering about this until kingdom come." I'm curious why you are rejecting even the pragmatic argument here.

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What’s your answer?

I'm so glad you asked!

Here's a connections chart I did. Do enjoy

Spoiler

I'd argue Araris stands out as a connection, but interestingly, it does include: yourself, Archer, and DeTess via voting (we're bracketing the question of when Fifth was converted), I'm ruling out Drake because E!Drake would need to be on Team Hoid - Team Khriss doesn't two-way self-cannibalise, and I'm ruling out JNV as I think JNV is a pretty solid Village read and also N0 Ruin.

This includes, by way of affinity: myself, TJ, Elan, Araris, and STINK.

Araris has a double connection due to Fifth's vote, which could be cast as distancing if you postulate an earlier connection. Elan is notable for the lack of connection: similar deal with TJ and STINK. Given my Braize shooter theory, I too have an explicit connection.

[Elandera she/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So this is a CC vote?

Not really, but I also don't like exing the ones who prompt village conversation this early and without more reason than "they're good conversion options."

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Does this affect your view of Turtle, then? Don't recall that wrt Turtle, but Turtle has been known to do that in the past, or legit inactive out. Walin AFAIR is the one who admitted to not sending in an action.

It does somewhat, but I can't say until I look more at her D2/3 activity. Also, I would like to point out this list is not "these are the people I want to exe" but "these are the people who fit my idea of the low profile but active enough category."

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why doesn't Archer fit OG Elim?

I just read your point D1 about him not understanding the researcher rules being a potential point in him not being one, but my argument is that understanding the researcher role isn't as easy as it looks. It also requires a good basis of understanding of the rest of the rules to really grasp the full potential of a researcher. My reads from Archer N0 and D1 were confused villager more than anything. I also don't think he'd be quite as sloppy as to advertise that ignorance as a solo elim at the start.

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

if you truly believe that the conversion criteria was purely players who haven't actually really been looked at

That's not my only belief. Yes, it's a good pool of potential targets, but some people also convert based on totally non-game-related reasons, such as wanting to be an elim with a certain player because they haven't yet.

If the consensus of the game is to exe Archer, by all means, go for it. It would answer a lot of questions and it would finally resolve this question that's been around for so long. But I've seen way too many games that ended poorly because players didn't look beyond initial suspicions. I'm trying to keep options open, especially with the converted are going to be our biggest pool.

[DeTess she/her]

@Ashbringerwhat exactly happens when both factions try to convert the same person? 

And what about if a faction tries to convert someone that was already converted? I assume it looks the same as trying to convert a shard? And would a failure like that look different from being roleblocked?

I've been wondering about the apparent lack of full elim teams last cycle, but if the elims have been hitting the same people (and know they have been hitting the same people) that could explain it and also changes my look at how certain people have been playing.

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

@Ashbringerwhat exactly happens when both factions try to convert the same person? 

And what about if a faction tries to convert someone that was already converted? I assume it looks the same as trying to convert a shard? And would a failure like that look different from being roleblocked?

If both Khriss and Hoid try to convert the same player (and assuming neither is roleblocked), both conversions fail.

Conversions failing is distinct from being Roleblocked, but does not distinguish from the different ways they can fail (target being AC/SoU/Auto, target being Frost, target being protected from Conversion by Frost, target being a Vessel, target being attempted to be converted by both factions… think that’s all the ways).

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, the reason I brought that up was that Elandera is really throwing me off right now. Something about their recent posts just feels too sure about Archer's innocence, and my first thought was that she seemed like an elim either desperately protecting a team-mate setting up to capitalize on a high-profile mislynch. That second option, however, wouldn't make sense this game as there are two elim teams that shouldn't know who the other is, so e1!elandera shouldn't be so against lynching non!e1!archer as they could be part of the other elim team. But if one (or both) teams actually have some idea of who the other team is it might make more sense. But then again, if that is the case, why aren't they pushing harder to get the other side executed?

Anyway, those were the rambling thoughts I had this morning after reading through the thread. I've got some travelling to do today, so I'm not sure if I'll be around to post again before turnover.

[Archer he/him]

I for one think Elandera's making a lotta good points :D. Imma join her because she smart and this is boring 

Wiz Mat

ignore me RBing her bc I thought she was bad

might still be bad. but she's nice about it

c'mere and respond to pressure again, wizard man

[Kasimir he/him]

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

Okay, the reason I brought that up was that Elandera is really throwing me off right now. Something about their recent posts just feels too sure about Archer's innocence, and my first thought was that she seemed like an elim either desperately protecting a team-mate setting up to capitalize on a high-profile mislynch. That second option, however, wouldn't make sense this game as there are two elim teams that shouldn't know who the other is, so e1!elandera shouldn't be so against lynching non!e1!archer as they could be part of the other elim team. But if one (or both) teams actually have some idea of who the other team is it might make more sense. But then again, if that is the case, why aren't they pushing harder to get the other side executed?

I have a theory but I don't know if it's a good one. It's something Roshar's been trying to piece together.

(N.B. Nothing significant about Roshar is being missed in the thread. You guys just get the highlights rather than the memes.)

Suppose you're Team Khriss. You just lost Fifth. Further, suppose that the Village is on its way to lynching Khriss right now. (I don't know, I'm just speculating for the purposes of trying to make this make sense.) 

What if one team, for whatever reason, and this is something Archer said that stuck out to me, because it just felt weird:

On 6/16/2023 at 7:15 PM, Archer said:

They almost certainly were village then, since the elim teams can't afford to lose a player to neutrality. 

Archer said this about JNV. But I keep coming back to this because this keeps making me think about the fact it's a really odd perspective. IDK, the thought the Elims might lose a player to neutrality (or even the supposition this might drive Shard hesitance on their end) isn't natural to me. (Almost made me wonder if that sort of concern is actually guiding recruitment decisions, which is why it comes so naturally to Archer.) Certainly the Village also can't afford to lose players to neutrality, which is probably why the Frost comms chain started freaking out when they learned JNV was going to Intent Convert, but you know, players gonna player.

It just felt very real about the sort of train of thought that might be going on.

But alright. Let's back up a bit. What does this have to do with Team Khriss?

Suppose Team Khriss is now at a serious numerical disadvantage. What does Team Hoid stand to gain?

I submit, in World Two:

1. @DeTess - the Flatline Seven problem is still real. If you are Village, killing you and me kneecaps a significant amount of Village discussion driving and resistance. Since World Two is a V!Archer world (albeit one I've found unlikely), the kill-chain is Archer, one of us, then the other. By which point, Khriss's team is still at a disadvantage, but Team Hoid can also act more openly because functionally, no one in the Flatline Seven will deny them, so the votes are there.

2. It's possible Team Hoid is concerned that if they weaken Team Khriss too much, the members might Intent Convert out and side against them, perceiving them as Village or part of the problem.

P.S. I think Mercy is overrated if you believe V!Drake.

If you don't think H!Team!Drake, then in a nutshell, all KP is in Village hands. Even if you don't think Ruin is Village, Ruin has two worlds to destroy. Elims can certainly juryrig something by having the whole team shotgun Odium Charges but this comes at the cost of giving Autonomy a significant advantage and giving them a significant footprint for tracking. All Mercy does is mark the player for Night execution unless they stack Honour Charges, and even if they do, no significant tempo is lost if you believe the conversions are largely in - in a regular game, an exe survival is bad because the Elims get a free NK. Not so here.

I think we should probably prioritise efforts elsewhere.

11 hours ago, Elandera said:

Not really, but I also don't like exing the ones who prompt village conversation this early and without more reason than "they're good conversion options."

It's interesting you are using the same line as Archer, which involves substantially strawmanning the case being made against Archer. It's hard to defend the line this isn't a CC vote when your argument for WIz is functionally also: "they're a good conversion option" (hence in your profile), and absentee.

I would add the Wiz vote is especially egregious here because you GMed Chameleon, and Mat GMed E!Wiz in LG93. The fact that both of you are seemingly oblivious to something you should be very familiar with as the GMs in those scenarios feels like a warning sign. I'm actually shocked the meta difference isn't screaming out at you.

11 hours ago, Elandera said:

It does somewhat, but I can't say until I look more at her D2/3 activity. Also, I would like to point out this list is not "these are the people I want to exe" but "these are the people who fit my idea of the low profile but active enough category."

Certainly, but it's fair to also ask how then you derive your focus on Wiz specifically, since the charge would be that you found a convenient CW since the profile category is so big. If your entire case against Wiz boils down to: profile, and also inactive, the same charge essentially can be levelled against Turtle and Araris. And yet, it's odd that neither of them in your eyes, are worthy of such attention. The contrastive question is worth asking because it seems revelatory of player preferences, and potentially, alignment driving choice.

11 hours ago, Elandera said:

I just read your point D1 about him not understanding the researcher rules being a potential point in him not being one, but my argument is that understanding the researcher role isn't as easy as it looks. It also requires a good basis of understanding of the rest of the rules to really grasp the full potential of a researcher. My reads from Archer N0 and D1 were confused villager more than anything. I also don't think he'd be quite as sloppy as to advertise that ignorance as a solo elim at the start.

Why isn't it? You are a researcher, are you not? Functionally, all you need to know is you win with 17S, can siphon when you are on Silverlight, and that you can dump Shards back into containment. I challenge you to show me any other element that a researcher really needs to keep in mind in this game. Everything else is game strategy and really context dependent. I challenge you to show me any player who is actually taking the current, entire ruleset as compulsory reading, rather than just looking up points of interest, and clarifying as they go along.

Szeth himself just learned today that Shardic wincons (apart from Autonomy's) are not actually game-ending.

Why do you need to 'really grasp the full potential of a researcher' by understanding the rest of the rules? This is an odd defense of argument here, and I'd argue it's a red herring. The case wasn't that Archer didn't understand the 'full potential of a researcher' - it's that he demonstrated a basic lack of knowledge of what the core researcher abilities are. No one is accusing Archer of not realising researchers can set up a double-Nalthian sling to feed Autonomy - the charge is much more simple, that he doesn't know what researchers can do.

Finally, as you yourself point out, this is a complicated game, and more than any researcher, Hoid, Bavadin, and Khriss are the most likely to desperately need to juggle every aspect of the ruleset and to be overwhelmed. This makes it more, rather than less likely for a solo Elim to be overloaded, especially when E!Archer has had a history of rule misunderstandings. 

None of these really seem like a convincing defense of the claim he can't be an OG Elim.

Edited to add:

Oh, sorry. Forgot to address one last point.

11 hours ago, Elandera said:

That's not my only belief. Yes, it's a good pool of potential targets, but some people also convert based on totally non-game-related reasons, such as wanting to be an elim with a certain player because they haven't yet.

So, interesting question for you. Why isn't that featuring in your calculus? You cite this, but haven't particularly shown this influencing your decision to create a CW.

11 hours ago, Elandera said:

If the consensus of the game is to exe Archer, by all means, go for it. It would answer a lot of questions and it would finally resolve this question that's been around for so long. But I've seen way too many games that ended poorly because players didn't look beyond initial suspicions. I'm trying to keep options open, especially with the converted are going to be our biggest pool.

Hmm, but the thing is no one here is not looking beyond initial suspicions. DeTess was the only one beating the Archer wagon post D1. Mat toyed with the idea but never seriously. Archer has never been on the table as an actual, serious option since C1, which means that your description of people repeatedly coming after Archer is actually a serious misrepresentation of the state of the discussion. If anything, going back to Archer is picking up a strand everyone had ignored since D1 - as this marks a significant mode shift from the last three exes, more than anything, this is choosing to take a different look at the exe options and breaking out of the mould of the past few cycles.

It's odd that you're claiming credit for being 'novel' given I pushed Wiz D2 and you are, functionally, repeating the exe more than Archer voters are doing.

More significantly, it's also kind of weird to frame this as keeping options open, because on the face of it, that's clearly true, but you're also opening one option. Every player responding thus far has chosen to deepen the Wiz train rather than widening options, or discussing more, so I don't feel that particular team has much of a claim to actually expanding exe discussion. But just as obviously, when it looks like a blatant CW, players are going to question your motives in doing so.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Kasimir

[Turtle they/them]

On 6/16/2023 at 4:49 AM, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 4: @Turtle - What did you do on D2?

um ngl im struggling to understand my gm pm but it was either nothing or swipe investiture

my internet connection is a bit unreliable right now

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Turtle said:

um ngl im struggling to understand my gm pm but it was either nothing or swipe investiture

my internet connection is a bit unreliable right now

Thanks, just wanted to make sure that TBB was being honest.