Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[---]

27 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

It’s not parity I think 

EDIT: yeah just checked, it’s outnumber

still lost already....

The only way to win here with 3 elims is to win a tie tomorrow after elims hitting protection tonight.

We don't have any crossbows, if we did they already would have been shot and if they do exist there is a chance they hit protection from the elims.

Most likely no one else has SB, I don't at least. a

losing at parity and losing at outnumber are the same thing if you don't have saves or kills. in the daytime parity means elims always win because they can split the vote easily regardless of who it's on and then hammer last minute or in this case, vitc.

[Alvron he/him]

Theoretically the elims could kill and then get hit by Shade Retaliation leaving it at two a piece.  A tie vote killing an elim then gives the village a chance.  The odds are very unlikely but not impossible.
Of course if they have a SE that hasn't used up their charge then there's almost no chance unless they forget to place orders.
But a chance is a Chance.  And I'm always willing to roll the dice.

[Elandera she/her]

Sorry for the delay! I got hyperfocused on drawing a book cover. The turn is closed!

[Elandera she/her]

I am certain the loud thumping of my heart alone will draw the attention of the shades. I cannot help it, though.

The time is near.

We are close.

The anticipation hangs, suspended in the air on a thread more delicate than a spider's web.

---

The Known Novel has been killed! He was a Homesteader!

No one is insane!

Wrath of Shades Counter: 25%

This turn will end Saturday, May 20 at 9:30 p.m. PDT / Sunday, May 21 at 2:30 p.m. AEST.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. The Known Novel - Homesteader
2. Archer - Cultist 
3. @Matrim's Dice - Enatnom
4. Araris Valerian - Homesteader Writer
5. Telrao / @Illwei - Ealmin
6. Kasimir - Homesteader Shade Expert
7. The Last Fae - Homesteader Thief
8. Amanuensis - Cultist with Iron Will
9. Sart - Homesteader Writer
10. @TheAlpha929 - Roosevelt
11. Ashbringer - Homesteader
12. |TJ| - Homesteader
13. @DeTess
14. JNV / Walin - Homesteader with Iron Will
15. Steeldancer - Homesteader
16. @Alvron - Navor
17. Devotary of Spontaneity - Homesteader White Fox with Iron Will

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

We win!

[Mat he/him]

Illlllweiiiii??

DeTess being alive is messing with me ngl

[DeTess she/her]

So only two elims. Alpha. I'm fine with Mat too, but I'm 100% certain alpha is evil for taking that VitC and then trying to pin it on me. Plus they all but claimed last night (and just now as well).

[DeTess she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Illlllweiiiii??

DeTess being alive is messing with me ngl

If the elims killed me, alpha would be completely exposed, so tkn makes sense as the kill.

[---]

Can i ask why we're not touching Alv?

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can i ask why we're not touching Alv?

I think just cause he’s outside of every sphere that exists

I’d kill Alv I think?

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, so I've been thinking. If there were 3 elims we'd have lost now. Yet alpha has been very confident that they'll win, despite the fact that elims can very much lose in a 3 vs 2 scenario.

What might be going on is that the two remaining elims have 3 lives between them, so (another) set of Silver bones.

This means the village is in trouble as we'll have to win 1-2 50/50 odds (depending on if alpha has the bones, which is guaranteed in a mat/alpha team). In this regard it might be better to execute someone other than alpha to reduce the amount of 50/50 odds the village has to win. I'd say Mat, except the theory that the elims still have a set of silver bones cuts away one of the main pillars for suspicion on Mat.

I'll run some analysis later to see who else could be alpha's team mate.

However, it should be noted that an e!sb!alpha execution is somewhat 'safe' in that it effectively forces the other elim to out themselves to force the two 50/50s, so they won't be able to hide. But it leaves the village with odds slightly better than 25% of actually pulling off a win.

edit:
okay, so Alpha's team-mate has to be someone in the N3 Mech pool as alpha wasn't in there, so mat or Illwei. Alvron can therefore be considered village at this point.

Edited May 19, 2023 by DeTess

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, DeTess said:

okay, so Alpha's team-mate has to be someone in the N3 Mech pool as alpha wasn't in there, so mat or Illwei. Alvron can therefore be considered village at this point.

Right, so that leaves Illwei as the only confirmed elim from my PoV. So yeah I think I’ll stay here

I can make a case probably so as to convince someone so that we don’t like misexe me and lose lol

Later though 

 

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I can make a case probably so as to convince someone so that we don’t like misexe me and lose lol

Later though 

 

I would very much prefer that, yes. With the way things stand I feel more like going after one of you or Illwei first, and I'll go over the two of you in detail tomorrow as well.

Edit:

@Alvron, what are your thoughts?

Edited May 19, 2023 by DeTess

[Mat he/him]

Rereading (first time for everything amiright) and came across this from D2. Context for that post is that it was before Devo revealed Aman was roleblocked, so they had a kind of advantage in knowing it was coming (cause Aman would have been told he was blocked) and they could prepare by laying groundwork or something like that. I think looking for signs of that would be useful.

The reason I noticed that post, though, is because it directly followed one of Archer's where he quoted my Araris e read and more or less sheeped it, using it as a segue to vote. In that post, Illwei does nearly the same thing, but joins me on Ash instead of voting Araris. That to me looks like an attempt to get a real train going as soon as possible. At the very least, it's a pattern of similar behavior between Illwei/Archer.

The other interesting thing there is that Illwei says that optimally, flipping a D1 train would be best, and that they think Ash/Archer are aligned. Archer was the overlap, yet Illwei voted Ash. Compare that to Illwei's play in recent turns, where they've been voting all the recent misexe trains entirely based on overlaps. It's a clear reversal from ignoring an overlap that would have killed an elim to obsessively citing overlaps that kill villagers, pointing to an agenda either way.

That's all I have time for now but I'll read future things at some point.

[---]

Yes so true I would never vote my teammates when they're doomed

But anyways the team is detess/mat but more on that later

[Mat he/him]

The point is that it was before the reveal. It's logical to assume that the elims would want to do what they could beforehand.

I think the overlap thing is the more interesting part of that, anyway.

[Alvron he/him]

14 hours ago, Illwei said:

Can i ask why we're not touching Alv?

Because I'm untouchable.   Until I give consent, then I can be touched.  But please, be gentle.

14 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d kill Alv I think?

Now that's just mean.  You only think you would kill me?  I would've killed you N1 if I had a crossbow.  (Not because I thought you were suspicious but rather I hate unresolved exes)

6 hours ago, DeTess said:

@Alvron, what are your thoughts?

The elims have taken great care to not have Mat exed the past two days.  Either he's evil or it's a wonderful set-up.  I would rather Mat be taken out this cycle over anyone else.

[Mat he/him]

31 minutes ago, Alvron said:

The elims have taken great care to not have Mat exed the past two days.  Either he's evil or it's a wonderful set-up.  I would rather Mat be taken out this cycle over anyone else.

It's clearly a setup considering it's lylo. There's no better way to assure a win here-- especially with the N3 mech pool otherwise down to one-- than setting someone else up to easily go over before you're mechanically revealed. Once I flip, Illwei will be mechanically revealed, but it'll also be too late.

If you look at the past turns and compare my interactions with Archer/Aman, their interactions with me, and then do the same with Illwei, one is far more aligned with them than the others. And it's not me :P.

More on that later though, if I have time

[---]

What was detess donig that absolves them of bring in the n3 pool

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

What was detess donig that absolves them of bring in the n3 pool

I mean, she was the one who was attacked. But I guess if WGG is a theory to consider there's no reason she couldn't have self-targeted I suppose

[Alvron he/him]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

What was detess donig that absolves them of bring in the n3 pool

DeTess went insane and claims it was from being attacked due to their protection item disappearing.

[DeTess she/her]

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

What was detess donig that absolves them of bring in the n3 pool

Technically I could have attacked myself (I think, not 100% sure on this. @Elanderado you allow attacking yourself?). Unfortunately, the actual action I took that night cannot be proven. I can show that I had claimed I would take that action, but no more than that. For the record, I had told Kas that I would give him my mask and taken that action that night. This was the reason Kas told Alpha in thread to give their mask to devotary instead (and why Kas immediately assuemd I got hit as they didn't receive the item and I went insane). As attacks happen before item passing the mask got destroyed before I could pass it there is no way for me to prove I actually took that action however.

It should also be noted that Archer hammered on me D1 to resolve the tie. If we were both elims it would make more sense to go after mat, and if all 3 of us were elims it would also make more sense to go after Mat as mat had an extra life.

Now, looking over Mat and Illwei. I'll be specifically looking at things that tie either of them To Archer, Aman or Alpha.

D1

Archer was voting Mat on and off. The reasoning feltlike they meant it to stick, rather than just being distancing, but in the end they hammered on me rather than Mat. On the other hand, Mat voting Archer to put them in the lead looks a lot better here, especially because they could have also kept their vote on me there.

Alpha expressed suspicion of Mat, but chalked it up to tunneling and backed off after a joke vote. Noteworthy thing about this is that they express suspicion which could help them gain village cred, while having an excuse for not acting on it. Feels a bit more like distancing here. Mat did much the same here, lowkey defending alpha here while the same time stating they had no problems with others voting them.

There is also Aman's vote on Mat. I'm not entirely sure if e!aman would have done this with e!mat. Given mat's extra life ti could have been a smart bit of distancing, and the vote didn't seem to be combined with much of a case that would have put pressure on Mat later.

Overall, D1 makes me feel like Mat was probably not aligned with archer, was aligned with alpha and shrug on Aman. So averages out to neutral when looking at the entire elim team.

Illwei meanwhile wasn't present at all.

N1

Archer now village reads Mat (and me) for how the vote worked out. Could be protectring team-mate Mat, here but the implication here is also 'hey, I was part of the tie as well until I broke it, so should be included in the same group as these two'.

Still not much on Illwei tying them to or separating them from the rest of the elim team.

D2

Illwei states suspicions of an Ash/Archer team and suggests wanting to resolve the D1 wagons. But then they vote Ash (who was village) rather than Archer (who was an elim). This feels inconsistent in hindsight, and might have been an attempt to both direct a mislynch and use that mislynch to clear archer. Alpha also later joins them on that vote.

(I am ignoring anything said by Aman after the RB got revealed, as anything from that point onwards was most likely carefully crafted to obfuscate information and lead anyone analyzing it in the wrong direction).

Neither Illwei nor Alpha ever actually switched onto Aman, which is noteworthy. Alpha wasn't around, but Illwei deliberately kept off the wagon, and I just don't really see why that was. Maybe the were still hoping for some other wagon to materialize?

Overall, D2 I'm not seeing much aligning Mat with any of the elims, but Illwei seems a little bit aligned with the entire elim team here.
N2

Archer village reads both Mat and Illwei, though Mat stronger than Illwei.

Ilwei posts a suspicion list without much further explanation. The list includes about half the players, but in particular both Alpha and Archer. Neither had done anything to not be on there though, so this does not really push Illwei oen way or another.

D3

After the possibility of 1 of Alvron or Archer being evil is brought up, Illwei throws shade at Alvron, indirectly protecting Archer. Illwei also doesn't join the Archer train and even throws some shade on it, suggesting there is too littler resistance for it to be a hit (or that all elims are bussing) here. Mat is on the Archer train, though not the first to join. Overall feel illwei is more aligned with Archer than mat is here.

N3

Illwei seems a bit confused why I think e!SE is now confirmed. This could be a village sign as e!ilwlei would know I was right, but also an attempt by e!illwei to try and deflect a correct conclusion.

Illwei seemed to be putting Alpha low on a reads list as well, but puts ash lower, and doesn't really elaborate why they suspect alpha, so they could move that read away from suspicion easily later.

D3

Mat is village reading alpha hard for passing on the mask to devo, which must have been the intended effect of the move. Not urneasonable, but does make Alpha and Mat look more aligned.

Illwei keeps e!rading alpha, but states once again they can't explain why and they don't act on it

D4

Illwei votes on alpha, and lets the vote stick even as Alpha gets pretty close to being executed, though it seems they attempted to retract it later?

Alpha reads Mat as elim, illwei as Neutral. Doesn't vote Mat though, so that e-read does not really have fangs.

N4

when theorizing the team with Araris, Mat doesn't consider Alpha as possibility (consistent with earlier hard village read) 

D5

Illwei was tracked and didn't do anything... not sure how much this matters (it'd make sense alpha would submit the kill as they're likely to be the e!SE), but wanted to make a note of it anyway. 

D8

... I think I lost track of the days and nights somewhere along the way. Either that or for the next couple of days/nights nothing of note happened

Either way, on D8 Illwei indirectly went after Alpha, asking why they weren't in the pool of suspects. They did not vote on them, instead going after Walin despite mentioning they townread JNV.

N8

Illwei immediately distance themselves from their Walin vote.

Mat also backs off of their Alpha V!read, which is a somewhat good look here, as they could have clung to it and used it to attempt a switch onto me instead.

D9

Illwei seems to be completely disregarding their earlier suspicions of Alpha, instead tunneling onto me and Mat for some unexplained reason.

 

So, all things added up Both Mat and illwei have ties to the elim team, but I feel like Illwei looks less consistent. Mat has strong ties to Alpha, but they came form one consistent event and Mat eventually reconsidered it when the numbers dropped when he could have clung to it to justify a switch onto me. Meanwhile Illwei claimed suspicion of Alpha for a while but rarely acted on it and never elaborated, and this cycle they've suddenly backed off from it completely, even though Alpha basically claimed with their supreme confidence about victory.

So overall, I think illwei looks slightly more suspicious to me? That having been said, I need to align my vote with @Alvron's as it is Lylo, so the village can't split their vote. Alvron, looking over what I mentioned above, do you still think Mat is the more suspicious one?

[---]

Your whole post there is assuming Alpha is an Elim and preflipping people off of that. Not only that but you do not even think of Alvron as a suspect.

If alpha is an Elim for sure, why are you not voting him?

[DeTess she/her]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If alpha is an Elim for sure, why are you not voting him?

refer to:

On 5/19/2023 at 7:43 AM, DeTess said:

So only two elims. Alpha. I'm fine with Mat too, but I'm 100% certain alpha is evil for taking that VitC and then trying to pin it on me. Plus they all but claimed last night (and just now as well).

On 5/19/2023 at 9:05 AM, DeTess said:

Okay, so I've been thinking. If there were 3 elims we'd have lost now. Yet alpha has been very confident that they'll win, despite the fact that elims can very much lose in a 3 vs 2 scenario.

What might be going on is that the two remaining elims have 3 lives between them, so (another) set of Silver bones.

This means the village is in trouble as we'll have to win 1-2 50/50 odds (depending on if alpha has the bones, which is guaranteed in a mat/alpha team). In this regard it might be better to execute someone other than alpha to reduce the amount of 50/50 odds the village has to win. I'd say Mat, except the theory that the elims still have a set of silver bones cuts away one of the main pillars for suspicion on Mat.

I'll run some analysis later to see who else could be alpha's team mate.

However, it should be noted that an e!sb!alpha execution is somewhat 'safe' in that it effectively forces the other elim to out themselves to force the two 50/50s, so they won't be able to hide. But it leaves the village with odds slightly better than 25% of actually pulling off a win.

edit:
okay, so Alpha's team-mate has to be someone in the N3 Mech pool as alpha wasn't in there, so mat or Illwei. Alvron can therefore be considered village at this point.

 

 

[---]

regardless it feels like the team is mat/detess and they're framing alpha

I thought detess was voting me earlier

still haven't had time to go through things I mean i have but not

i turned my brain off for 7 cycles and now i have to turn it on and theoretically this should be easy but the easy answer is alpha/alv

i'll be on later today