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Anniversary Game 9/Anonymous Game 13: Rebuilding Tyrian Falls


Elandera

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Falcon

[OOC: Here’s what I’m thinking happened: two of Ostrich, Tuatara, and Hyena are elims with Falcon. Voting on Falcon is an attempt to put a bunch of elims on not Heron, who’s about to flip village. Except the two elims were joined by two villagers. So Hyena backed off, but then realized that looked bad and hopped back on. So I think Falcon is an elim they were gonna vote for to maybe gain village cred at a later point.]

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I don't think I'm willing to support either a Heron or Falcon execution. Seems like the Falcon execution is half opportunistic counter-wagon to Heron based on Ostrich sussing them, and I disagree with the complaints raised against Falcon's first points.

Heron I feel is an option based on Croc's sussing of them them, but I'm satisfied with Heron's response on the whole. 

I know voting on anyone at this stage literally does nothing, but if I had to execute someone today it would be Scorpion, sorta just based on the vibes I'm getting from their posts. 

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4 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

OOC: Here’s what I’m thinking happened: two of Ostrich, Tuatara, and Hyena are elims with Falcon. Voting on Falcon is an attempt to put a bunch of elims on not Heron, who’s about to flip village. Except the two elims were joined by two villagers. So Hyena backed off, but then realized that looked bad and hopped back on. So I think Falcon is an elim they were gonna vote for to maybe gain village cred at a later point.]

“I’ve mentioned multiple times today my desire to vote Falcon, but all those times they didn’t have any votes. Hyena definitely has that look, however obvious that would be, and if you’re right the two are just Ostrich/Hyena since it’s not me.”

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As The Lord Ruler becomes TLR, a long post becomes shorter due to time constraints!

-Rhino's non answer is noted.

-Heron used the reasons I wanted to vote for Mouse D1 to justify voting someone else, then didn't switch to Mouse when I offered it. That feels teamed of them. 

-I thought I'd voted Mouse. Guess I didn't. 

-I don't like the Falcon wagon. They had a solid D1

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Night Two: Prior Obligations

Sidor and two of her spies examined the cart that bore Reverse’s remains buried under glass. Carved into the metal frame of the top pane were the words “Ruin can track me. Stay safe. -L :3”

“Ruin can track her?” one spy said. “Does that mean she’s Spiked?”

“I knew we couldn’t trust her,” the other replied. “She always looks at me like I’m prey. It was only a matter of time before she turned on us.”

“Enough,” Sidor cut in. “I’ve known she’s Spiked and I know she’s still on our side and not a threat to any of us. Her wrath is reserved for those who support the Empire, and now the Spiked who are threatening Tyrian Falls.”

“How can you trust her so quickly? What makes her different from the other servants of Ruin?”

“Ruin can’t make Spiked do anything. He can talk to them all he wants, but only Koloss and Inquisitors are bound to his will.”

“You know this because she told you? Or he did? You’re too smart to be so foolish for her.”

“I will not abandon her for a hypothetical! We are fighting back against those causing real, tangible harm. If she wanted to hurt us she wouldn’t be keeping her distance like this. Now go, we’re late to the meeting at town square. Let’s not be so quick to execute someone without evidence this time.”

The two spies didn’t look happy, but they left without another word. Sidor began running to the town square by another route. “I’m losing them. There are so many more plans we need to execute, ways to track down the missing inventory to find out exactly who is stealing from our stockpiles to mount this attack, but that’s much harder if my agents don’t listen to me. I wish I could tell them the truth. [I wish I could trust you as much as I say I do. I wish you trusted yourself.]

~~~

By the time Sidor arrived, tensions had already reached their peak. There would be no stopping this crowd, and truthfully she didn’t want to. An obligator still loyal to the Lord Ruler was a threat to the entire town regardless of whether he was working for Ruin. She made no effort to intervene as Reneau dug his grave deeper with every word.

“Fools! How dare you lay your hands on one of the Lord Ruler’s faithful servants! When He returns, he will cast down His wrath on all of you! Bow down and beg forgiveness now that He might yet show you mercy.”

The people of Tyrian Falls had weathered catastrophe after catastrophe over the past year. The ravings of a man who refused to accept that he no longer lived in a world that catered to him didn’t slow them at all. He died screaming out to a dead man who had no power to save him anymore. His lack of spikes was only a minor disappointment. 

~~~

The air grew thick and Oleinda thought she could feel the mist beginning to coalesce around her. Shaking her head, she joined the crowd as they began to disperse, staying at the edges and close to the walls. She could hear the panic in their movements. It was growing late. No one wanted to be caught in the mists. Not when mistwraiths and worse were about, doing the work of murderers.

Everything felt all too familiar. It was like a year ago. Desperation and fear began to rule over logic and sense. In times like these, Oleinda wished she was a Soother. She wanted to ease fears and help people see that turning on each other was far worse.

Yet she had the sense that there was more at work. Someone or something manipulating, stoking the crowds.

This would not end until that was stopped. Or they were all dead and Tyrian Falls fell.


Mint Heron was executed! They were a Village Smoker!

Vote Count:

Mint Heron (6): Mauve Crocodile, Amethyst Scorpion, Salmon Meerkat, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon, Azure Mouse
Emerald Falcon (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Charcoal Hyena, Cream Tuatara
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Mint Heron
Plum Rhinoceros (1): Sunburst Toucan
Pearl Chameleon (1): Coral Swan
Coral Swan (1): Onyx Flamingo

Night Two has begun! The turn will end on Monday, January 2nd at 6:00 PM PST/ Tuesday, January 3rd at 2 a.m. GMT / 1 p.m. AEDT.

PMs are Open

Player List:
 

Spoiler

1. @Amethyst Scorpion - Scop

2. @Azure Mouse

3. @Charcoal Hyena - Aylia

4. @Chartreuse Penguin - Donn Keihote (Insane)

5. @Coral Swan - Onidsen (Scholar, Caroler; has animal companion)

6. @Cream Tuatara - Willam (Terris Steward) 

7. @Emerald Falcon - Luciel (sheriff)

8. @Fuchsia Ostrich - Koros (Secret Agent)

9. @Indigo Weasel

10. @Ivory Dragonfly - (Manic Ghostblood)

11. @Magenta Albatross -VarLeel

12. @Mauve Crocodile - (Obli-gator)

13. @Melon Dingo - Reverse (Glassblower, not psychologist) Village Smoker

14. @Mint Heron- Reneau (Former Obligator in denial) Village Smoker

15. @Onyx Flamingo - Agolac (Forgetful)

16. @Opal Lion - Guy (Internet Speak)

17. @Sunburst Toucan - Avil Ejir

18. @Pearl Chameleon - WitLees (Kandra barkeep)

19. @Plum Rhinoceros

20. @Saffron Iguana - Taltin Keriell (Undercover nobleman spy) Village Rioter

21. @Sage Kangaroo - (High Imperial) Village Lurcher

22. @Salmon Meerkat - Aurelien (Awake)

23. @Sapphire Elephant - Ciril Yuanivori (Sleeptalking oversleeper)

 

Edited by Devotary of Spontaneity
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22 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

“That Smoker curse is no joke,” Willam said gravely.

“A vote removed from Falcon is noteworthy when there was no manip on a close EoD D1, I think.”

Clearly they deserved it for having that role! I'm mildly curious which vote was moved if Heron was Smoking. It's also interesting that the vote wasn't a significant one. Was it insurance or misdirection? 

Village Heron is annoying so I need to reconsider some things. Like you all need to reconsider not accepting The Lord Ruler as your god. 

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1 hour ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

"Do you think this implies E!Falcon?"

“That, or it’s like the Obli-gator mentioned and it’s only that the elims want us to think it’s e!Falcon. Unfortunately, it will be hard to tell the difference without just flipping Falcon anyway, but I do think the manip was more likely e than v due to the lack of it D1.”

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Sigh, sorry Heron. This is why we don't do all-nighters trying to make things make sense :/

So a vote was removed from Falcon, and there was a Falcon EoD swing. I have Village reads on two of the Falcon people and feel maybe sort of okay about another one of them. I'm trying to work out if the Heron vote slam from - Dragonfly? was meant to seal the train against Falcon.

But I still do not Village read Falcon, so. Am hoping to hear more from Falcon going forwards.

I still have a good read on Tuat and it looks like Tuat began the Falcon CW, with Hyena stacking on. Rhino joining is uh but I'm starting to feel that where Rhino is concerned, it's a case of 2:2:186 so am leaving well enough alone for the moment.

Alb moving to Falcon at fifteen minutes to rollover leaves the trains stable at 6-5. Ele voting Scorp and no further changes suggest a certain fundamental comfort with the closeness of the trains. This could be because an E!Falcon voter had vote manip and imagined being able to keep Heron in the lead, or this could be because Falcon and Heron are V/V, suggesting Elim indifference.  No real way of knowing now, but I sort of lean a little towards the latter now, surprisingly. I guess this might be the fact I have a poor risk appetite for Elim team modelling but I'm ehhhhh about the idea that Elims might feel chill about allowing a narrow train margin given vote manip, though it's just as possible that they figured Heron wasn't gonna VM if he wasn't online. (Not sure, guessing since Heron mentioned his activity issue.)

While I think it's worth looking at some of the side-train votes, the big one staring us all in the eye is the fact 6-5 trains aren't pure. (No drek, Meerkat...)

And I want to go back to at least the D1 raw votes, and colour them in to work with:

Day One:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (3): Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo
Melon Dingo (3): Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Indigo Weasel

Sage Kangaroo (2): Mauve Crocodile, Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Cream Tuatara
Mint Heron (1): Salmon Meerkat
Ivory Dragonfly (1): Emerald Falcon
Charcoal Hyena (1): Pearl Chameleon
Azure Mouse (1): Sage Kangaroo
No Vote (7): Opal Lion, Chartreuse Penguin, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Fuchsia Ostrich, Saffron Iguana, Azure Mouse

Minimally, we know that there was high purity on the Iguana train. We don't have a clear sense of the Dingo train though I agree the Dingo kill doesn't make as much sense for E!Weasel.

With seven non-voters, I think it is very likely that Elim complacency is the correct read, and we can potentially expect that is not pure.

Filling in my credences:

Day One:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (3): Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo
Melon Dingo (3): Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Indigo Weasel

Sage Kangaroo (2): Mauve Crocodile, Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Cream Tuatara
Mint Heron (1): Salmon Meerkat
Ivory Dragonfly (1): Emerald Falcon
Charcoal Hyena (1): Pearl Chameleon
Azure Mouse (1): Sage Kangaroo
No Vote (7): Opal Lion, Chartreuse Penguin, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Fuchsia Ostrich, Saffron Iguana, Azure Mouse

I probably have to do some level of cleaning, as I'm not sure what I think about train purity.

Day Two:

Quote

Mint Heron (6): Mauve Crocodile, Amethyst Scorpion, Salmon Meerkat, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon, Azure Mouse
Emerald Falcon (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Charcoal Hyena, Cream Tuatara
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Mint Heron
Plum Rhinoceros (1): Sunburst Toucan
Pearl Chameleon (1): Coral Swan
Coral Swan (1): Onyx Flamingo
No Vote (?): Opal Lion, Chartreuse Penguin, Indigo Weasel, Emerald Falcon

Cleansed with credences:

Day Two:

Quote

Mint Heron (6): Mauve Crocodile, Amethyst Scorpion, Salmon Meerkat, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon, Azure Mouse
Emerald Falcon (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Plum Rhinoceros, Magenta Albatross, Charcoal Hyena, Cream Tuatara
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Onyx Flamingo (1): Mint Heron
Plum Rhinoceros (1): Sunburst Toucan
Pearl Chameleon (1): Coral Swan
Coral Swan (1): Onyx Flamingo
No Vote (?): Opal Lion, Chartreuse Penguin, Indigo Weasel, Emerald Falcon

I am currently unwilling to revise Tuat, potentially Mouse, maybe Hyena, and probably Croc.

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5 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

and it looks like Tuat began the Falcon CW

“Point of order— it was Ostrich, and I was the second vote. I never would have voted Falcon, and I doubt anyone else would have, if Ostrich hadn’t.

“Though I say that with Falcon unflipped, so for all they’re village and there’s no credit that needs to be shuffled.”

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2 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

“Point of order— it was Ostrich, and I was the second vote. I never would have voted Falcon, and I doubt anyone else would have, if Ostrich hadn’t.

“Though I say that with Falcon unflipped, so for all they’re village and there’s no credit that needs to be shuffled.”

Sorry, speedread and tired >>

But yeah I am somewhat more willing to believe V!Falcon atm.

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1 hour ago, Cream Tuatara said:

“So your read of the manip is elim baiting? I guess that goes without saying. I’m not set on either way.”

Not that actually. I am reluctant to believe an Elim team would allow it to go to 6-5 if they don't know how much vote manip there was, much less if Heron would self-pres manip, or someone invested enough would save Heron, given the amount of heat surrounding the late lynch. A Rioter alone could drastically affect the result.

I don't strongly believe this because I'm aware players have told me multiple times that I am more conservative in risk assessment than a number of Elim teams, but it is a line of reasoning I feel okay with at the moment.

I'm interested in the fact there's no other visible vote manip though, given we have two Smoker flips and one Rioter flip at present.

Edited to add:

Quote

[OoC: In response to all the people who queried by read of Mauve's comment, I get the feeling that he wasn't being technical about, but rather let slip something. As Meerkas pointed out, it could be him being a vote manip or even a PM confidante, my mind just went straight to elim. Might check in before rollover, might miss it reading Tress. We'll see, I have no idea who to vote right now.]

1. I think you had a typo there, it's Meerkat. Or I guess since my identity is not a big secret, Kjell. I know there was a previous old-timer by the name of 'kel' and the 'j' is silent but I am not him, as demonstrated by my knowledge of proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation.

2. I guess I'm trying to understand why it feels like a slip to you. It doesn't to me, but in case you're onto something...

3. If you believe that Croc is working off TMI that there is E vote manip, does this influence your views of the Falcon-Heron endtrain?

Edited to add 2: Forgot to tag. @Opal Lion

Edited to add 3: Like Ostrich's post last Turn.

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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[OOC: Night voting has historically not been successful. But I think it's worth trying again for two reasons: first, to generate more cover/noise if there is a V Coinshot, and second, to potentially just get more information/discussion out of people. I think Shadow or Turtle remarked once we are lucky to be able to discuss at Night and should use this chance more!

These are my current sets of reads:

Moderate Village:

Spoiler
  • Tuatara

Simply put, Tuatara has shown an investment and interest in fostering Village discussion early on, even when there was little thread interest. Interaction with Hyena D1 felt V/V. Believe that E!Tuatara simply doesn't try the 'indubitably not Spiked' play. Furthermore, reaction to Heron D2 and attempt to CW at EoD felt natural/pure. Am comfortable with this read.

Light Village:

Spoiler
  • Hyena

I go back and forth about whether to bump Hyena to the Moderate tier or not. Interaction with Tuatara D1 felt very V/V, particularly Hyena's incisive reply about suspicious behaviour still being suspicious behaviour, which felt like it emerged from a Villager mindset. Do feel an Elim would have either leaned into the retaliatory aspect here or simply not even retaliated but attempted to mollify Tuat's suspicions, at Hyena's level of play. Tuat suspicions consistent with early game behaviour. EoD D2 switching makes me feel a bit eh, but in any case, the correct order of implication here is from E!Falcon to E!Hyena - hesitation feels more natural for a confused Villager than it does for an Elim unless, again, E!Falcon.

  • Ele

Probably a controversial read and one I'm considering whether to downgrade to Mild Village or not. This is a read informed by Ele's Smoking position, which I find counterintuitive for an early game Elim. I also don't feel that Ele would be this disengaged from the game early on if Evil, but will admit flat out that this is a read informed by my suspicions of who Ele is. I think they give off a solving vibe in PMs, that they are interested in finding Elims, and Villager fog-of-war is reflected nicely in some inconsistencies in their views. All in all, sort of okay with my Ele read.

  • Weasel

Weasel could potentially be placed in the Mild Village tier. Ultimately I agree with Heron's (?) assessment here - I think that an Elim team would have advised Weasel to back off on the Reverse statements after N1, and I also don't really see a Dingo kill being consistent with a Weasel team for these reasons.

Mild Village:

Spoiler
  • Mouse

I am generally fine with Mouse's D2 and feel as though they look engaged with the game, and actively trying to solve. Reaction to sudden Falcon CW felt pretty right to me, as I'd probably have flipped a chull if I were awake and saw a bunch of votes coalescing all of a sudden. Clash with Croc on deriving reads from RP feels like a typical Villager hyperfocus brawl. Would maybe be ok promoting to Light Village.

  • Croc

Quoting Tuat, proactive, "go-getter" attitude is a positive look, especially in early tepid cycles. Attempted to keep thread discussion alive, which I consider a positive. Quiet D2, for which /shrug.

  • Scorp

Possibly a controversial hot take. I liked Scorp's post immediately after Heron's longpost - or well, I'm not sure I liked liked it, but I feel that Elims tend to be more concerned about optics and the fact that Scorp is voting Heron for lurking right after Heron made a longpost is potentially a bad look. Some of it depends on Scorp's meta, to be sure, which there's no way to comment on. I also felt that I liked their EoD post about avoiding ties, which seems to emerge from a more Village perspective. In an E!Falcon world, this can be reconsidered.

  • Ostrich

I liked their one post. It was a good opening, gut Village from it. It felt like he was engaging with the game, saw a train he didn't like, and pushed against it. It felt sincere.

  • Toucan

When I read their posts, I question whether we are playing the same game. That being said, I think Toucan laying the groundwork for a Dingo D2 during N1 is a good look - not sure if that is consistent with E!Toucan killing Dingo. Also had a D1 post that gave me a positive impression - cf:

On 1/1/2023 at 2:01 AM, Salmon Meerkat said:

Toucan switches his vote to Iguana and asks Tuat about his opinion of Hyena's reaction. I sort of want to give this mild Village points for showing an interest in the thread/engagement.

  • Rhino

Possible to consider demoting to Null. Posts feel sort of pure but also trying past playstyle, which is something I tend to read as more Village.

Null:

Spoiler
  • Lion

I'd just like to hear more from Lion. Deliberate non-engagement with the voting.

  • Penguin

Ibid.

  • Cham

I like the fact they tried to do the one read and showed up to help. At the same time, this does make their Heron vote one of the ? ones. Need to recheck state of thread when Cham voted. Basically, Cham vanished, so it is difficult to get a strong read off them. Keeping in mind Croc's point about Villagers being less concerned about keeping their promises.

  • Alb

I don't have a strong read off Alb, sort of felt the Falcon bus theory just came out of nowhere and I couldn't really understand the mindset Alb was working from.

Mild Evil:

Spoiler
  • Dragonfly

Potentially willing to revise back to null. I think the last minute vote D1 was a good look, and the panic felt genuine, but it's also possible I misread that vote. I am not sure I like Dragonfly's D2 votes as much, e.g. Weasel, and for someone who tried to stir thread discussion, purportedly, Dragonfly has a real distinterest in following up on it. Last minute Heron vote felt like it came out of the blue. Possible E/E with Falcon?

  • Flamingo

Don't feel strongly about this one. Not self-presing is a good look, but was decent enough in the cycle time-wise for that option to still be on the table subsequently. Odd for Flamingo to be suspicious of Alb for not noticing interaction with Weasel but not extend the same doubt to Dragonfly. Possible that Flamingo had V!DF priors due to the late vote, but still odd.

  • Falcon

Made my views of their D1 clear. Apparent they had a shortage of time rather than coasting on credit, but even so, I still find their D1 DF vote just really odd given their set-up and it adds to the view of a player who has surface level interest in the thread but not otherwise. Might or might not have been VM saved, but feel the thread indifference does look like a point in their favour. However, in terms of purity, I am at least inclined to feel a bit more favourably about the Falcon train. Some late Heron votes felt more like trying to save Falcon.

As such: Dragonfly, possibly Falcon.

Goodnight.]

Edited to add:

Tired and forgot about Swan - happy to put into mild Village, maybe downgrade to null. Shows some interest in reads via PM groups. No strong view of Swan but all in all, drawing more attention than an Elim would like to do N1 with little sign of attempting to leverage on it. Gut Village.

Edited by Salmon Meerkat
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Hello from the other side of RL hectic times…

Missed rollover yesterday, but I would have voted Heron, so maybe that’s a good thing. Rebounding off the v/n/e thing suggested as well as the night voting, I am liking what I see from Tuatara and Alb, have no opinions on Lion or Elephant which is beginning to concern me, and actively dislike Chameleon and Scorpion’s votes last cycle. I am fine with the Coinshot taking Falcon to clear the air, or maybe hitting Dragonfly or Flamingo, but would most prefer the targets I have put in red.

If you are in one of my PM groups and I have not replied: I am sorry. I do actually like talking, I am simply out of time to do a lot of it. :( I will try to get to them tonight, or tomorrow if I do not die. 

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