Onyx Flamingo Posted January 3, 2023 Posted January 3, 2023 I just got back and am working on rereading. But this: 1 hour ago, Azure Mouse said: Willing to make a vote change. This is to put pressure. seems like a pretty bad reason to vote me. I'll die to the exe before I claim anything, so pressure isn't going to do anything on that front. I'm already committed to solving the game, so ditto there. And I also already had the most votes prior to yours. So you are accomplishing literally nothing that you want to accomplish by voting for me.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 3, 2023 Posted January 3, 2023 Having conversed at length with Mouse [Azure Mouse], Avil felt he could see reason to believe in them, at least tentatively. He would then redirect his suspicions toward WitLees [Pearl Chameleon], who had not put forward an accusation himself in the First Day, which could be indicative of the Spiked given that most of the accused from that day turned out to be innocent. He had also accused Reneau [Heron] yesterday (and had little to justify it), which made Avil warier of his motives. He glanced at the sky. They had not yet approached midday, and yet Avil felt exhausted.
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 3, 2023 Posted January 3, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said: A small defense of Flamingo. Not really regarding anything they've done, but I'd argue from a balance perspective, it's unlikely that there would be a thug on an elim team, unless it was made one person smaller. So either flamingo is village, or we're up against a 4 man team, if my estimates are correct. They could be wrong, of course. Now that I've thought about how many kills there are per turn, it's possible we could even be looking at a 6 man team, though if so they probably aren't role heavy at all. And, honestly that feels a little bit too big to me. I'm still staking my bet on 5, and I just don't see a thug being given to a 5 man team. If the coinshot feels really strongly about it, they can go ahead and blow another kill on Flamingo, but I think thread's efforts should be pointed elsewhere. As to where, yeah I have no idea. I guess the exes on villagers would be a good place to start. Feels like an opportunity to dive into the past AG role distros. Spoiler LG 1 Players: 16 Spiked: 4 Village Roles: Tineye, Seeker, Coinshot, Thug, Lurcher, Smoker, Rioter, Vanilla x5 Spiked Roles: Smoker, Soother, Mistborn AG 1 Players: 28 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x3, Rioter, Smoker x3, Seeker, Tineye x2, Coinshot, Lurcher, Thug x2, Mistborn, Vanilla x8 Spiked Roles: Mistborn, Lurcher, Smoker x2, Rioter, AG 2 Players: 27 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x1, Rioter x1, Smoker x7, Seeker x1, Tineye x2, Thug x1, Mistborn x1, Vanilla x8 (No Lurcher or Coinshot) Spiked Roles: Soother x3, Smoker, Lurcher AG 3 Players: 34 Spiked: 6 Village Roles: Soother x2, Rioter x1, Smoker x5, Seeker x1, Coinshot x1, Lurcher x2, Thug x4, Vanilla x11 (No Tineye, Mistborn) Spiked Roles: Mistborn x2, Lurcher, Thug, Smoker AG 4 (Roshar with Radiants, but equivalent roles) Players: 30 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x2, Rioter x1, Smoker x3, Seeker x, Tineye x2, Coinshot x1, Lurcher x1, Thug x2, Vanilla x13 (No Mistborn, Seeker) Spiked Roles: Mistborn, Lurcher, Soother, Seeker, Thug AG 5 Very different, not relevant. AG 6 (Same as AG4) Everyone Mistborn, so just pure chaos. AG 7 Very different, not relevant AG 8 Players: 26 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x1, Rioter x2, Smoker x1, Tineye x3, Coinshot x, Lurcher x2, Thug x4, Mistborn x2, Vanilla x6 (No Seeker) Spiked Roles: Mistborn, Lurcher, Coinshot, Vanilla x3  Edited January 4, 2023 by Sapphire Elephant Actually finished the summary of AG distros, but going to continue the rest of thoughts in a new posts as there are now 4 replies since I accidently posted this very WIP post...
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 3, 2023 Posted January 3, 2023 I'm putting names in bold orange if there is a negative connection and in bold purple if there is a positive connection. Not sure if that will be helpful. At the end of each creature's section I have some questions/thoughts for the individual to hopefully address. 1. @Amethyst Scorpion Spoiler D1, opens with a poke on Penguin. This is the vote I followed. Had IRL reasons to not contribute further in the cycle. Nothing of substance during N1, but I do appreciate the attempt at de-escalating things. D2, mentions that they aren't comfortable doing analysis the way some players are, along with a continuation of some IRL stuff. Later places a vote on Heron for lurking, and sticks to it. Was active at the end of cycle and at least claimed they would prefer to avoid a tie because of elim vote manip. No posts N2. D3, is voting on me for not claiming why I survived. Also mentions suspicion of Penguin's lurking/inactivity. Overall, it's hard to make a judgement here, but I'd really like to hear Scorp's thoughts on more than 2 players. What do you think about the other people voting for me? Are their reasons justified? Does Meerkat's list make sense/would you vote on any of those people? Would Coinshoot but not exe unless we need a fast EOD switch and don't have a better option. 2. @Azure Mouse Spoiler D1, has IRL reasons to not participate right away. Doesn't vote at all. I again appreciate the de-escalation post during the night. D2, makes this post, emphases mine: Quote Train on Hyena dissolves soon after gaining traction? Suspicious. Tuatara leads train with a miniature gambit within RP between Willam and Aylia. An "altercation" that leads to a vote, which is then quickly moved to Flamingo as soon as the Hyena vote gains traction. Possible e/e distancing. I guess this is kinda defunct given Tuatara has flipped green. Later has a bit of a clash with Croc. Also votes Rhino in defense of Flamingo (that's me!). Posts a VC where they commit to the Rhino vote, though they eventually flip onto Heron. Give a frantic vibe at EOD, which might have implications if Falcon flips elim, but otherwise looks somewhat village. Overall a solid D2 that reads decently village. In the night reconsiders Rhino and doesn't like Falcon. D3, I've already addressed what they've said, and while I don't like their vote, I still have a village read based on their D2. I'm curious what you think about Hyena now, and if your interactions with Croc gave you a feel for their alignment. Decent village read, would not kill. 3. @Charcoal Hyena Spoiler D1, sent out PMs to (presumably) everyone. Mine kinda died, but it was some decent RP for a while. Has a bit of engagement with Tuatara that doesn't really go anywhere. Votes Tuatara for clearing someone, and defends the vote, but later retracts it and moves onto Kanga for lurking. I like the engagement with Tuatara but I'm not sure it's consistent with the voting; Hyena doesn't vote on anyone that has any chance of dying, which fits with the criticism that Tuatara brought up earlier. N1, makes some slightly defensive comments regarding Dragonfly and Iguana. D2, softens village read on Dragonfly. Makes this post: Quote Different people have covered the way the votes preceded after that, so I won't cover the exacts, but the important part is that this tie was maintained until seven minutes before rollover, when Croc moved from Mouse to Kangaroo. I think for this I'll put Mouse and Penguin to the side for now, along with some players players that I've gotten good vibes from at some point or have a good gut feeling about (Mouse, Swan, Tuatara, Dragonfly, Lion, Rhino, Meerkat, Toucan). This good-list isn't exhaustive as I am having some trouble connecting posts to the many many PMs I have had. I think it's fine for purposes at the moment, though. This leaves <Scorpion, Falcon, Ostrich, Weasel, Albatross, Croc, Heron, Flamingo, Lion, Toucan, Chameleon, Rhino, Meerkat, Elephant>, of which <Heron, Weasel, Flamingo> have votes. Honestly though, I've not enamored with the cases for any of the three. Slightly unnerved by all the Heron votes, but that's normal for me. I don't feel a need to add to those. Looking back, Weasel has felt somewhat genuine (though not enough to put him on my haphazard good list and remove him from my temp voting pool). I suppose I'm fine with voting Flamingo (Toucan is in both categories, which is interesting) A good post, though there's not any reasoning behind voting for me except that someone else did. I tend to lean village on this except for the narrow pool of potential vote locations. Shortly after switches to Falcon, which is consistent with their list, but again doesn't have any reasoning. Later unvotes and revotes, it's not exactly clear what is going on here. During the night brings up that vote manip could suggest e!Falcon. Also clarifies that good list names should be removed from the POE. D3, has not yet posted but has IRL reasons. I would really like to hear their thoughts given the vote on me last cycle and the sizeable POE, but life comes first. Slight village read, would not exe both for that and because they are busy IRL And that leaves 16 to go! It's family time for a bit though.
Indigo Weasel Posted January 3, 2023 Posted January 3, 2023 I mentioned this in some PMs, but I am currently working on doing some rather intense analysis, but it will have to be put on hold due to some professional concerns that are currently taking most of my attention. I might get my analysis completed by sometime tomorrow after I finish the various applications that I am in the process of completing. The old man stared down at the village from his perch on the rooftop. He didn't know any of these individuals, at least not in their current forms. Nothing to be done about that. If he wanted information, there would be patterns. There were always patterns. And he would find them, and that tineye who had taunted the village with their message.Â
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) chameleon i miss sweet lizard Edited January 4, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 My reasoning for my vote on day one was a poke vote, I said something in the thread again some time and then I forgot about the game until around an hour after the day was over. Came into the thread at night and then realized when it was the next day that I would rarely have the chance to get on during the day. Decided to get on late day two and reading Meerkat's post I decided to just vote on the first person who pinged my suspicions because I really didn't have the time that day to get on, but I did it anyways. Tried to form a reads list during N3 and just kept on losing focus and having a hard time doing it. I finally read through it all and you want suspicions? Well I have a few, trying to keep the paranoid ones down to a minimum. Dragonfly because I haven't been liking their posts. They seem too opportunistic and careful. I don't know exactly. I've thought of a Dragonfly/Falcon team but it's probably a crack tunnel built of horneater white and adamantium string. Reminds me of a LG90 meme actually. But anyways, my mind has been thinking about the coinshot since they could be evil or village. If evil I think that would point to V!Flamingo...unless they're going into WGG territory which I really don't want to stray into right now. So E!Coinshot probably points to V!Flamingo while V!Coinshot is good for us but doesn't help with the flamingo question. WitLees was feeling rather confused, he'd been drinking too much horneater white again. But it had sparked a brilliant idea, it shimmered in the folds of his mind. Standing up on a table, WitLees declared. "Come one come all, come to the drinking competition. We have free drinks for you, but only if you can hold your drink! The requirement is to drink at least," WitLees scratched his beard. "Hmmm, I'd say a quarter of your body weight!"
Azure Mouse Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 38 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: D3, I've already addressed what they've said, and while I don't like their vote, I still have a village read based on their D2. I'm curious what you think about Hyena now, and if your interactions with Croc gave you a feel for their alignment. Hyena still on sus list. Croc has leaned more to v as time has gone on and they continue to try to solve the game. Attention is elsewhere today--friend is moving away
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 So things aren't as bad as we immediately thought, which is some good news. I think I still won't be very active for a couple of days or so for legitimate RL reasons, but I'll still try to get a post in tomorrow. Hoping I can be more active in future cycles >> 54 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: My reasoning for my vote on day one was a poke vote, I said something in the thread again some time and then I forgot about the game until around an hour after the day was over. Came into the thread at night and then realized when it was the next day that I would rarely have the chance to get on during the day. Decided to get on late day two and reading Meerkat's post I decided to just vote on the first person who pinged my suspicions because I really didn't have the time that day to get on, but I did it anyways. Tried to form a reads list during N3 and just kept on losing focus and having a hard time doing it. I finally read through it all and you want suspicions? Well I have a few, trying to keep the paranoid ones down to a minimum. [Curious to see what your reads list looks like when you turn the paranoia up to a maximum.] 3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said: This is to put pressure. :We like pressure, don't we :eyes: Really liking Meerkat's analysis of Dragonfly 5 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said: You panic if you're invested. If you're invested, why are you skimming? Where's the sense of care and the willingness to get things right? If you're invested, why didn't we see that earlier? I will add that there have been cases of villagers panicking in the case of a large VC swing and switching a vote to a random pockets to 'throw off the elims'. But I don't see that happening here. As mentioned, D1 was relatively stable in the last six hours. Why does V!Dragonfly panic? Dragonfly
Coral Swan Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I'll die to the exe before I claim anything Returning to note that I find this a rather unhelpful attitude, and it is making me lean Elim on you even further. If you’re a powerful role and you are village, we do not want to Exe you. If you are not a powerful role and you are village, we still do not want to Exe you. If we Exe you because you’re being intentionally vague about your survival—a very reasonable point of suspicion—we are hurting the Village even more because we don’t even have to make the Elims waste a kill on you. Your role information is never more important than your actual life (Seekers and Coinshots, take note), and is frequently less important than subsidiary concerns, i.e., whether we should treat you as a suspect for surviving a Coinshot hit. You can help us clear this up and move us to more productive discussion, perhaps even helping you avoid a night kill (the Coinshot has incentive to hit you again tonight to clear the air), and are choosing to maintain obscurity instead for the sole purpose of trying to preserve your own life for a while longer. Have read the Dragonfly arguments and would be fine going there, but I want to maintain my Flamingo vote for now.Â
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said: The top three wagons were against villagers (as they kindly let us know in part by killing Dingo). They could be anywhere, so I'm confused why you're asking this question. My point is, where are they in the voting? Top wagons against Villagers usually implies sidetrain or non-voting Elims, but if the Elims are heavily concentrated in non-voters from D1, we're looking at a highly inactive Elim team. My credences also suggest the sidetrains are by and large clean so I'm having difficult identifying a coherent Elim team. I'm confused why you think this isn't a question that needs to be asked. If they voted, they should be identifiable. 5 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said: As for Dragonfly, you're making an argument I've erroneously made before about Mat, because he likes to lurk near rollover and will post a random comment because lurking but acknowledging it is slightly less suspicious than lurking and saying nothing. I also generally have a village read of people who make ties at rollover for the fun of it. So I'm hesitant about this take. But Dragonfly isn't making a tie for the fun of it. Dragonfly made a tie because he claimed he panicked and suspected Dingo. The two aren't the same. I don't see how your argument is the same. You're equating lurking and voting here. Lurking isn't the same as voting. I consider voting to be more suspicious because it's a deliberate action, whereas stunlocking or apathy happens. I point out to you as well that you're ignoring this would be the correct take on E!Stick on D1 of LG91. Elims do occasionally tiebreak even in a V/V EoD and I'm surprised that a player who screws with meta the way you do doesn't consider this a point that some Elim will eventually take advantage of. I'd dismissed this earlier because E!Stick broke a tie by voting to defend V!Books and we all agreed that looked Village until we caught her for different reasons, and then understood this was a result of her feeling obligated to defend her Village read. Dragonfly made no such prior obligations. My argument is that what Dragonfly says about his EoD doesn't hang well together. I don't see what reason V!Dragonfly has to panic, speedread the thread, and cast a vote that brought Dingo into contention as a result of it. My point is that if you're a Villager who feels obligated to vote, you're probably going to avoid the lead trains and just slot in. I also don't see why you'd explicitly panic or rush without investment. But that being said, I am honestly okay with voting Lion. I'm not comfortable with the minimal presence Lion has despite lurking, and I feel that at this point, Lion's engagement with the game is minimal and largely peripheral, e.g. Tineye message, claiming, with little comment on the trains. This reads like the sweet spot for a disengaged Elim to be in. Edited to add: @Mauve Crocodile - I feel that even if you believe that the EoD argument isn't convincing, you at least have to agree in light of Elim tiebreaking/tieforming that it can't be considered exculpatory in itself. I think there are reasons behind the circumstance of Dragonfly's vote to at the very least be sceptical of how pure it really was. And Dragonfly's D2 doesn't look so great to me. Dragonfly's request for 1/1/1 looks good on the surface but Dragonfly doesn't follow through and functionally nothing comes of that. They don't engage with the responses, really, which suggests that they can't be given Village credit for it because it's not actually an interest in stimulating discussion. Unless I'm mistaken, they were also the last voter on Heron, and one of the stranger ones. On top of that, their pushing Weasel D2, as I've argued - I'm sympathetic to that vote, but Flamingo themselves note that this is an odd view to take as Weasel is unlikely to be behind a Dingo N1 kill. Flamingo suspects Alb for this line of reasoning, but not Dragonfly, which I find odd, but want to also point out that if credit for D1 is suspended, then the picture changes drastically. Edited January 4, 2023 by Salmon Meerkat Spelling
Mauve Crocodile Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: Returning to note that I find this a rather unhelpful attitude, and it is making me lean Elim on you even further. If you’re a powerful role and you are village, we do not want to Exe you. If you are not a powerful role and you are village, we still do not want to Exe you. You're basically saying that regardless of what they claim, you'd like to judge them on their merits rather than on their role. So why aren't you doing that? This is dominating the discussion about them when it really shouldn't be. There was a village Lurcher, so we know villagers can have protection roles. Lurchers sometimes protect themselves because they know they're village (and don't know the alignment of the coinshot), and Thugs can't help it. They've declined to answer, so it's time to change your line of inquiry to a more productive one. 14 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said: But that being said, I am honestly okay with voting Lion. I'm not comfortable with the minimal presence Lion has despite lurking, and I feel that at this point, Lion's engagement with the game is minimal and largely peripheral, e.g. Tineye message, claiming, with little comment on the trains. This reads like the sweet spot for a disengaged Elim to be in. Weasel is stalling and at this point I'd rather Lion was the second wagon instead of Flamingo. Edit: Praise TLR! Edit 2: The non voters D1 are about the same sized pool as the uncleared voters D1 based on Meerkat's reads, but I imagine there's an even mix between the two if it's an inactive elim team. I don't see a good pool to narrow them down from, besides hoping most of them voted, but there's no good reason to believe that. I'd rather go after voters, but I think it'd be a mistake to then discount non voters because maybe it skews that way. I don't think it's a good starting point as a POE due to lack of information Edited January 4, 2023 by Mauve Crocodile
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said: Feels like an opportunity to dive into the past AG role distros.  Reveal hidden contents LG 1 Players: 16 Spiked: 4 Village Roles: Tineye, Seeker, Coinshot, Thug, Lurcher, Smoker, Rioter, Vanilla x5 Spiked Roles: Smoker, Soother, Mistborn AG 1 Players: 28 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x3, Rioter, Smoker x3, Seeker, Tineye x2, Coinshot, Lurcher, Thug x2, Mistborn, Vanilla x8 Spiked Roles: Mistborn, Lurcher, Smoker x2, Rioter, AG 2 Players: 27 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x1, Rioter x1, Smoker x7, Seeker x1, Tineye x2, Thug x1, Mistborn x1, Vanilla x8 (No Lurcher or Coinshot) Spiked Roles: Soother x3, Smoker, Lurcher AG 3 Players: 34 Spiked: 6 Village Roles: Soother x2, Rioter x1, Smoker x5, Seeker x1, Coinshot x1, Lurcher x2, Thug x4, Vanilla x11 (No Tineye, Mistborn) Spiked Roles: Mistborn x2, Lurcher, Thug, Smoker AG 4 (Roshar with Radiants, but equivalent roles) Players: 30 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x2, Rioter x1, Smoker x3, Seeker x, Tineye x2, Coinshot x1, Lurcher x1, Thug x2, Vanilla x13 (No Mistborn, Seeker) Spiked Roles: Mistborn, Lurcher, Soother, Seeker, Thug AG 5 Very different, not relevant. AG 6 (Same as AG4) Everyone Mistborn, so just pure chaos. AG 7 Very different, not relevant AG 8 Players: 26 Spiked: 5 Village Roles: Soother x1, Rioter x2, Smoker x1, Tineye x3, Coinshot x, Lurcher x2, Thug x4, Mistborn x2, Vanilla x6 (No Seeker) Spiked Roles: Mistborn, Lurcher, Coinshot, Vanilla x3  To actually finish the thought, AG4 had 30 players with 5 elims, which included a thug and a mistborn on the evil team, with a village coinshot. So not so many more player, though I'd agree 4 + thug might make more sense. Though the 34 players of AG3 had 6 spiked plus a thug, lurcher and two mistborn to the one village coinshot (no mistborn), which does feel high to me. In those types of distro, does feel like V!CS = at least 1 E!Thug, or E!CS = multiple V!Thugs, but then LG1 and AG1 had V!CS with no E!Thugs... Whatever the case, if a look at previous AG distros helps at all, there's the breakdowns. ... Just highlighting we've not heard from @Charcoal Hyena, @Chartreuse Penguin, @Fuchsia Ostrich, or @Ivory Dragonfly yet, with only Hyena of those having posted during the last night cycle. Ostrich just hasn't been online, but the rest have been online this cycle. ... C1 Reads Slight village: Tuatara, Falcon Undecided: Meerkat Watching Closely: Croc, Toucan, Slight elim: Dragonfly, Scorp, Flamingo C2 Reads Slight village: Falcon Undecided: Meerkat Watching Closely: Croc, Toucan, Tuatara Slight elim: Dragonfly, Scorp, Flamingo ... Players under threat of execution C1: Hyena, Mouse, Dingo, Penguin, Iguana, Kangaroo C2: Heron, Falcon, Flamingo, Rhino, Dragonfly, Weasel There was a 3 way tie at 19 hours remaining in C1 - Hyena, Dingo, Penguin. It went away for a few hours (due to Meerkat, Heron, and Dingo) before being restored by Meerkat, where it remains until 10 hours remaining, where it becomes 4 way with Mouse, and then 5 way with Scorpion with 6 hours remaining. At 3.5 hours remaining Hyena is removed by Tuatara, Croc swaps Kangaroo in for Mouse at 7 minutes to go, Dingo puts Iguana in the lead, before being tied with Dingo by Dragonfly. To me, if there's any elim action then, it's E/E Croc and Mouse, with Dragonfly's last minute panic being weird. So I think I'll have a close look at Croc and Mouse then. (Notes here that Croc when rushed in C2 with 2 hours to go thought they had a vote down on Mouse) Regarding C2, hard to comment on whether there was any real threat to any elims causing vote movement. At 10 hours to go, vote tally according to Meerkat was: (EDIT: Actually, Meerkat missed Toucan's vote on me) Spoiler Cham (1): Swan Weasel (2): Dragonfly, Alb Elephant (1): Toucan Heron (1): Tuat Rhino (2): Meerkat, Rhino 9.5 hours - Rhino moves to Flamingo 9 hours - Meerkat moves to Heron (2 way tie with Weasel) 8.5 hours - Mouse votes on Rhino, Toucan moves to Rhino (3 way tie with Weasel and Heron), 8 hours - Mouse moves to Flamingo (removes Rhino from tie, now just Weasel and Heron), Scorpion votes on Heron (Heron 1-vote lead) 7.5 hours - Meerkat moves to Flacon, dropping Heron back to a tie with Weasel 7 hours - Chameleon votes on Heron, putting them back in the lead 5 hours - Meerkat locks in the lead by moving back to Heron, Spoiler Chameleon (1): Swan Heron (4): Tuatara, Scorpion, Chameleon, Meerkat Weasel (2): Dragonfly, Albatross Flamingo (2): Rhino, Heron Rhino (2): Mouse, Toucan 5 hours - Tuatara moves to Flamingo, tying Heron and Flamingo 4.5 hours - Flamingo votes Swan 4 hours - Tuatara moves to Dragonfly, putting Heron in the lead again 3 hours - Rhino moves to Dragonfly 2 hours - Croc "moves" to Heron from the Mouse vote they never placed, locking Heron in first place 1.5 hours - Mouse moves to Heron Spoiler Chameleon (1): Swan Heron (5): Scorpion, Chameleon, Meerkat, Croc, Mouse Weasel (2): Dragonfly, Albatross Flamingo (2): Heron Rhino (1): Toucan Swan (1): Flamingo Dragonfly (2): Tuatara, Rhino There's a bunch of work put in to trying to execute Falcon instead, but I'm not sure how much that matters when Heron was locked but flipped village. So any overt elim action feels like it would be in these sequences of votes. Weasel and Rhino were under some threat, though Weasel more than others, but that's still pretty early. Later, there's already a lead, but as shown by Tuatara, not so hard to break that lead. Only vote movement of note here though is Croc and Mouse, putting Weasel, Flamingo, and/or Rhino out of any danger. I do find it somewhat interesting that Croc and Mouse have ended up together again as PoI when looking at the voting that happened both previous cycles albeit for a different reason. So feels like if there's anything, we've a situation of E!Croc voting E!Mouse for distancing purposes later, but needing to save them last minute from the tie in C1, while using C2 to lock in a villager so as to avoid any last minute chaos. Otherwise, it's feeling from the votes that if we've got V!Croc, then Hyena, Penguin, and Scorpion are likely village, and there's just random Elim voting or inactivity, looking more like [Weasel, Dragonfly, Toucan, Flamingo, Chameleon, Falcon, Meerkat, Elehpant] are the pool of voting C1 elims. Of those, Weasel and Falcon didn't vote C2, so I'd think that [Dragonfly, Toucan, Flamingo, Chameleon, Meerkat] more likely, removing myself from the list also.  So from all that, we end up back up in a similar place to my vibe reads, although having flagged Mouse and Chameleon for further investigation. Will say that V!Croc could still leave E!Mouse as a possibility. As this has already got quite long, going to look at Croc and Mouse first, post it, and then review the others later. ... Croc Spoiler They sus Mouse for discussion around a point of whether to pay attention to RP. Quote It's been far too quiet and I don't like Kangaroo's timing. I'll give Mouse some of The Lord Ruler's leniency. How's it going Kangaroo That was their moving of vote from Mouse to Kangaroo with 7 minutes left in cycle. It's interesting that Croc was paying attention to who was online at end of day to catch that Kangaroo had been viewing thread in those final few minutes. When there's 2 vote ties for first at 7 minutes remaining, could be elim making sure there's no further chaos. Though equally village could do that. Quote Maybe they didn't realize the kills were differentiated and were trying to obfuscate which one was theirs? Having witnessed The Lord Ruler's clever trickery around his perported death, I am aware that such shenanigans are possible. This was in response to Hyena expecting Dingo to have been the Coinshot kill N1, not the Spiked kill. Not sure how I feel about it. They do a reads/why everyone could be evil list here. I like that they did it, not sure that I necessarily agree with reasons given for the different players. Mouse sus feels made out of nothing. Maybe a lot of is fair, though not super significant given it's based on D1 only. Feel like the case against Toucan should put Toucan higher on the list as compared to the other suspects. Likewise there bottom of the list points on Dragonfly and Falcon seem like they should be much higher on the list. They do at least vote on the top two players on their list (Mouse and Heron) during cycle 2, so they're consistent at least. That's perhaps a point in their favour, limited by Mouse at least not being in any danger if potential Elim buddy. In this post, in response to a comment from Meerkat about likely high Elim complacency, the response is Quote It took me a minute to realize you saying complacency means not caring about the outcome. Not not voting. Interestingly the wording emphasizes your potentially flawed underlying assumption that the elims voted - but I'm happy to make that assumption because otherwise it's a boring game. Not quire sure where the misunderstanding happened. In an E!Croc world, could potentially be read as E!Croc being surprised about the statement the elims didn't vote. Quote May The Lord Ruler's blessings fall upon you for this lovely post. You should be able to check for vote shifts due to pressure but that's a project for later. In response to Toucan doing some VC play by plays. Toucan hasn't done anything on that yet it seems, but Croc appears to have done something this cycle, so we'll look at that when we get there. Quote -Tonally, I felt Swan's PM felt overly confident that they would/deserved to be trusted. I don't think I was being double teamed in that PM though, so I'm not sure what to make of it. Not actually sure where this Swan PM is mentioned outside of this, so not quite sure of the context. On 03/01/2023 at 1:53 PM, Mauve Crocodile said: If whoever protected Flamingo (including themself if that's the case) wants to claim it, I'll give them a free clear since there's too many bodies to make wasting NKs on a WGG worth it. Seems to continue to contemplate a E!Coinshot :thinking: 9 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said: It’s notable that Flamingo didn’t smack a vote onto Weasel or Heron, and instead went onto Swan. It’s bugging me that the Weasel vote was so stable. The wagons ebb and flow around it but no one ever adds to the Weasel train. If I take that as a sign of e!Weasel it also points to teammate!Flamingo. The Rhino wagon that emerges looks like the product of villagers so I don’t think it’s consequential. I’d also like to point a finger at Ostrich for casting a vanity vote in a situation where Heron’s death is fairly assured. Making a teammate’s 2 vote wagon into 3 is too risky, so they start one on what I think is a villager. Elephant pulls a similar move later in the round, which is also odd in a game where vote manip is a threat. This is from their post actually analysing the votes from D2, and I actually sort of like it. Though most of the rest of their posts have been sorta nothing/room for evil affairs, this feels villagery to me. (Seems as good a time as any to respond to the comment on my vote - I was leaning village on Falcon and Heron. At that point, a second vote on any existing wagon is just as far away from being dangerous as a new wagon unless there's an intense amount of vote manip being thrown around.) Their post does end with the same conclusions I ended up with for a V!Croc world above. The rest of their posts I generally like, but don't have strong feelings either way re: Spiked vs Village. So I think where I stand is even though I probably get a mild village vibe because I like some of the content, particularly from this cycle, I don't know that I could necessarily give a village read just yet. I'd be okay with putting a vote down on them I think, if no other better options arise. Mouse Spoiler Immediately vibes with Croc in first post. Then starts debate on RP. But that's all they do Day 1. First post of note is D2 here. Basically just sussing Tuatara. Continues sparring with Croc. Reacts negatively to Rhino's voting of Flamingo. Give vote tally, notes fairly close with Heron at 3, and Rhino, Flamingo, and Weasel tied at 2, though adjusts with Meerkats move from Falcon to Heron. No vote here just yet, though slight E!Heron read. Nothing here that particularly villagery, though nothing overtly elim either. Eventually follows Croc on to Heron to lock in the execution. Doesn't like the late Falcon push. Provides vote tally and ongoing commentary/updates to said tally through the last minute votes. N3, only asks Meerkat to explain the difference between the use of light, mild, and moderate in their reads lists. Doesn't respond again. Today, after some clarification on the night kills, puts vote on Flamingo thinking a chance of E!Thug. So on the whole, feels fairly light as far as contribution (I say this being aware I've made even less posts than they have...) So I feel like both Croc and Mouse have the opportunity of evil more than any particular elim leaning, with there maybe being a slightly more stronger lean towards E/E than V/E or E/V. Not putting a vote down just yet, as I do want to do a proper look at the aforementioned others first. ... The next night and day, the daily newspaper annotation before a snooze became something of a habit, though Ciril started to find that he did seem to be trending towards longer periods of focus. He had yet to work out how to avoid the collapse into porridge when falling a sleep. He really need to work out how to achieve the skill of sleeping upright. It was as he then mused further on whether learning to sleep with eyes opened could be leveraged into working while sleeping that his head fell forwards as he nodded off. Mercifully, he missed the soup on the way down. EDIT: Apologies for the ping Hyena, you posted while I was prepping this and I forgot to go back and review that. Edited January 4, 2023 by Sapphire Elephant Swapped out quote boxes for spoilers to reduce the vertical space taken up by post (had intended it that way)
Coral Swan Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 31 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said: You're basically saying that regardless of what they claim, you'd like to judge them on their merits rather than on their role. So why aren't you doing that? This is dominating the discussion about them when it really shouldn't be. There was a village Lurcher, so we know villagers can have protection roles. Lurchers sometimes protect themselves because they know they're village (and don't know the alignment of the coinshot), and Thugs can't help it. They've declined to answer, so it's time to change your line of inquiry to a more productive one. I am judging them on the merits; here, the merits in question are whether a villager or an Elim is more likely to deny the thread information which is crucial in deciding whether or not to Exe them, and use discussion on their survival. In this case, I am reading the refusal as Evil. Conversely, I will probably read whatever claim is made as Village, but that does not negate the need for the claim. Also for everyone trying to read into a Tyrian distro, I have a word of advice: don’t. >> We can make general assumptions about how things might look, perhaps, but I am dismissing any speculation that is too concrete. These distros are known for being absurd. I esteem Elan and Devo highly enough to expect nothing less than madness if we try to Rolex.Â
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Coral Swan said: Returning to note that I find this a rather unhelpful attitude, and it is making me lean Elim on you even further. If you’re a powerful role and you are village, we do not want to Exe you. If you are not a powerful role and you are village, we still do not want to Exe you. If we Exe you because you’re being intentionally vague about your survival—a very reasonable point of suspicion—we are hurting the Village even more because we don’t even have to make the Elims waste a kill on you. Your role information is never more important than your actual life (Seekers and Coinshots, take note), and is frequently less important than subsidiary concerns, i.e., whether we should treat you as a suspect for surviving a Coinshot hit. You can help us clear this up and move us to more productive discussion, perhaps even helping you avoid a night kill (the Coinshot has incentive to hit you again tonight to clear the air), and are choosing to maintain obscurity instead for the sole purpose of trying to preserve your own life for a while longer. Have read the Dragonfly arguments and would be fine going there, but I want to maintain my Flamingo vote for now. Exhibit A: (1) Quote Again, me giving more details won't help us make better decisions. I'm sure some of the interest is villager driven, but it looks to me like the elims want to know too so. Guess they'll have to kill me and find out if they really wanna know.  (2) Quote I'm not sure why this is supposed to make sense. If you are Village and we kill you, we lose a Villager and the information you're trying to protect comes out. We're worse off than in the situation when you do give those details. Given the thread resolve has been to LAFO you, I can't see how your decision matrix makes sense at all except for generating the worst of the worst outcomes. (3) Quote Archer was eliminated. He was the Corrupted Epic - Incinerator!  My two clips on Flamingo: 1. I don't read Flamingo's current attitude as being fundamentally Village. In fact, I read it as more Evil than anything. Given the existence of two Smokers, a putative Village CS, and no vote manip, I think there's plausible reason to suggest Flamingo is not hiding anything that is not already known. I also point out that contra Crocodile, self-protecting in this particular set of circumstances isn't Village. You are arguing if Flamingo is a V!L that Flamingo chose to lurk in the thread at Night, saw the suspicions raised on him, decided not to interact with them, decided to self-protect, and decided, therefore, to persist with the suspicion on him, which might have led to the very CS shot he then had to block. You don't have to go all out and appear super Village. You just need to allay enough suspicion to not get shot so you can try to stop the NK. I don't see this attitude making sense for a Villager. See: Exhibit A. 2. I acknowledge the main reason I'm hesitating to vote Flamingo but still feel he deserves pressure is that I feel Flamingo's C1 vote is a candidate for an Evil profile vote (dgaf ascended train), but also don't see it quite making sense in light of what the train landscape looks like and my other suspicions, e.g. Dragonfly and Lion. 3. I feel the Heron train only really gained momentum at the point Flamingo was the CW. I'm comfortable with V!Falcon right now, but believe that Flamingo as the Heron CW needs to be interrogated. The Evil profile point and #3 were my reasons for putting Flamingo up among my candidates and suspicions on N2. I don't really see their role changing the consideration. What I am doing is pointing out if they are a Lurcher, which we have no way of knowing, then their behaviour skews quite a bit more Evil, and that I don't read their reticence in a positive light right now. Edited to add: The thing is, one way or another, I don't want this cycle to be just about Flamingo. So consider this the last I want to say on Flamingo. Still interested in Lion and Dragonfly, no strong read on Cham but dislike how they've been out of it, and as much as Weasel's lack of interest in finding Elims isn't great, I don't know if I see an Elim team with Weasel on it killing Dingo or not advising Weasel to dial it down. I'll add that I am okay with my Village reads on Mouse and Croc for now. I think Mouse's reactions to Toucan feel rather pure, I'm concerned by the fact I don't think Toucan is Evil, as I feel punted back towards quiet players, and IDK how comfortable I should feel with that assumption. 56 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said: Edit 2: The non voters D1 are about the same sized pool as the uncleared voters D1 based on Meerkat's reads, but I imagine there's an even mix between the two if it's an inactive elim team. I don't see a good pool to narrow them down from, besides hoping most of them voted, but there's no good reason to believe that. I'd rather go after voters, but I think it'd be a mistake to then discount non voters because maybe it skews that way. I don't think it's a good starting point as a POE due to lack of information Yeah, that's my worry. My problem I think is I have good reads on some/more of the voters but that might reflect a bias - as Illwei said in a game a long time ago, "It's that simple: post and get Village read." But I am worried about the fact I can't currently offer a coherent team guess. It's a bit early, but it suggests one of my reads is wrong somewhere. Edited January 4, 2023 by Salmon Meerkat Kjell player name slip, sorry
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 I mean, we can lay out all the scenarios, right? Either I'm a Thug, a Lurcher, or a Mistborn (this is technically a claim, but it's one I'm willing to make). If I'm a Thug, claiming that doesn't help anyone because I'm no longer a Thug. In fact, it means I become a lower priority target since there are other people with roles running around. The greatest strength of a Thug comes from nobody knowing their role. If I'm a Lurcher and I claim then I'm dead. If I'm a Mistborn, again, claiming that puts a big target on my own back (which could be a benefit if I rolled Thug this cycle). Â So, it makes sense for me to not claim unless I want to try some Mistborn IKYK stuff, which seems like too much trouble. Or if I did claim, it makes sense for me to lie, in which case nobody would trust the claim to begin with. ISOs won't come until tomorrow, and I might not finish them by EOD, but I'll try and get through at least half of the players by then.
Opal Lion Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 [OOC: I'm in an odd slump right now, can't seem to really form any suspicions. If I had to vote I'd go for Flamingo, since not claiming feels very odd to me. I understand the reasoning, but the biggest thing holding me back is I'd expect an elim to at least cop out a Thug claim when under this much threat. I might try to ISO Dragonfly to see why people are going after him, could someone highlight some of the main reasons for e!Dragonfly?] Guy no kno wot go on, Guy think Spiked runned away and everyone good guy.
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 To expand discussion a bit more before I go back to seeking an .iloc god because StackExchange hates me today: 9 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said: The top three wagons were against villagers (as they kindly let us know in part by killing Dingo). They could be anywhere, so I'm confused why you're asking this question. I think I now understand where you are coming from. My response is we're sort of talking past each other here. I'm asking the question because I do want to know the answer, but am also inviting input. It's really part of a sanity check: of course, I have my own Village reads, some of my suspicions, and I'm worried that when I put them together and interpolate with D1 voting, there's no coherent picture. This implies there's probably something wrong with my picture of D1, and my point of phrasing it is to invite discussion in the hopes someone else has a better picture, or equally wonky. This matters to me because Flamingo is one of the players for whom my analysis throws up as being potentially Evil on D1 but also doesn't work well with my current picture of the D1 situation. So the background stakes here for me are something like this: do I pressure Flamingo more? Revise that read? Do I remain on Lion? (Current choice.) Do I take this as a sign something is wrong with my Dragonfly/Weasel reads? What? If there's a mistake and I'm reading as Village someone I shouldn't be, then maybe the thread can spot that and I can go pressure them instead. We're somewhat past Rollovet but I don't see a reason to not try to revise my reads and/or make them make sense. I do feel coherence is a basic commonsense check that is worth running on your reads and that's what's motivating the question for me. 2 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I mean, we can lay out all the scenarios, right? Either I'm a Thug, a Lurcher, or a Mistborn (this is technically a claim, but it's one I'm willing to make). If I'm a Thug, claiming that doesn't help anyone because I'm no longer a Thug. In fact, it means I become a lower priority target since there are other people with roles running around. The greatest strength of a Thug comes from nobody knowing their role. If I'm a Lurcher and I claim then I'm dead. If I'm a Mistborn, again, claiming that puts a big target on my own back (which could be a benefit if I rolled Thug this cycle).  So, it makes sense for me to not claim unless I want to try some Mistborn IKYK stuff, which seems like too much trouble. Or if I did claim, it makes sense for me to lie, in which case nobody would trust the claim to begin with. I'd say the bigger problem is all of those don't particularly make sense from a Villager mindset. If you're Mistborn, you'd have to have gotten Iron last Night and decided self-protecting from a presumably Village-side (at the very least, even if E!Coinshot, they have to make their kill patterns pass off as Village) kill was worth it, and then gotten Thug today. Otherwise, similar ballpark problem as the Lurcher, which I've already spelled out. Thug-wise, the issue is that the greatest strength of a Thug comes from drawing the Elim kill and forcing them to waste tempo. Playing into the Coinshot suspect pool does the exact opposite of this. Anyway, exam at 2145hrs today, so life is wonderful, but I'll list out a few thoughts on players/reads I currently have, non-systematic, non-ordered. If you're not in here, probably a null. Mouse: Village with LIGHT confidence. I like Mouse's D2, she''s busy today, I don't take the question point as being AI as I believe players make this mistake anyway, acknowledge Toucan has a point about the vote, but overall feel that Mouse's tone is pure, her irritation is earnest, and she feels like she is genuinely trying to solve the game. Mouse v. Crocodile D2 fight felt more like Villagers hyperfocusing. Acknowledge this read might not supersede voting patterns, but am not focusing on her today. Noted potential connection to Croc.  Hyena: Village with MODERATE confidence. I acknowledge they are busy IRL. There is a chance they might have pocketed me but their thoughts in PMs are consistent with a solving Villager. I also still genuinely like the consistency of their D1 and feel the clash with Tuatara had a very strong V/V feel to it in terms of Hyena's response to Tuat about suspicious behaviour still being suspicious. Don't feel E!Hyena stands their ground here. I read D2 EoD as being more V for Hyena than E: I don't think E!Hyena is coherent unless you believe E!Falcon, and even in an E!Falcon world, I'd argue Hyena wouldn't be indecisive in the thread as a bus/save decision had to be made in doc. Indecision in a close exe with vocal players like Tuat (flipped Village) and Ostrich disliking the vote makes me more willing to believe the player is Village.  Crocodile: Go back and forth on this guy. Good go-getterness, solving - acknowledge E!Croc would do this anyway. Village with LIGHT confidence. Clash with Mouse D2 feels V/V to me. A bit unsettled by some of his votes but am ok with V!Croc for the moment. Very mild Village credit for eagerness to take NK as being indicative of V!Flamingo. Noted potential connection to Mouse.  Falcon: Village with MODERATE confidence. Single-mindedness a good look; Elims would be more cautious. Not going to elaborate on this  Ele: Village with MODERATE confidence. Willingness to solve and engage (admittedly more in PMs), thread posts on low side but consistent so far, inconsistency in reads and actions reflective of a paranoia I consider more fundamentally Village/fog-of-war-tainted.  Swan: Village with LIGHT confidence. I acknowledge this is a powerfully meta read, meaning if I am wrong about Swan being Seonid, this possibly crumbles. Still: C1 a good look/match for their V meta, I am reasonably confident in my ability to read them (famous last words), and inconsistency in reads reflective of a paranoia I consider more fundamentally Village/fog-of-war-tainted.  Cham: No real read, leaning EVIL. Disengagement so far not a good look, but hope to hear more from them. Not sure about their Heron vote. INTERROGATE  Penguin: No real read, leaning NULL. Disengagement so far not a good look, but hope to hear more from them. Nonchalance towards being D1 train is ?  Rhino: Leaning chaotic. Feels somewhat pure, gut Village but am troubled by the fact I can't really make up my mind on them.  Weasel: Village with MILD (less than LIGHT) confidence. Weasel's disengagement and dgaf is not very inspiring and as I've said a few times, I actually sympathise with the votes on him. But I also don't know that I'd agree E!Weasel wouldn't be asked by his team to tone down, or if a Weasel team agrees to kill Dingo. HMM for that, maybe. Maybe I'm giving Weasel too much grace for that. IDK. REVISE???  Lion: Leaning EVIL. Disengagement not a good look. Consistent thread lurker but non-participant. Chooses to engage on peripheral issues which might be indicative of a genuine difficulty forming suspicions, and thus potentially Evil.  Ostrich: Gut Village with MILD confidence. I gut read Ostrich very powerfully as Village for their D2 post but am troubled by the fact that at that point, I was also suspicious of Falcon. I liked the way Ostrich verbalised an existing discomfort with the trains but also feel it'll have to relate to Flamingo's alignment in part. Need to revisit in light of my V!Falcon credences. REVISE  Toucan: Village with MILD confidence. Liked Toucan's early D1, feel Toucan preparing to flip Dingo N1 is a good look, recognise I might be giving Toucan too much credit for that. Not sure how I feel about Toucan flagging both Croc and Mouse for the questions on the kill - if Toucan is as much a Tyrian veteran as I am from what he suggests, then he must surely know that questions about the kill come up every single Tyrian run and have to be clarified. This could be part of a Tyrian drinking game, along with Emotional Allomancy questions. Agree Toucan later flagged voting pattern but vote was couched as based on something I minimally consider NAI if not very mildly Village in the case of Croc. REVISE???  Alb: No real read and I probably should have one. Commit to re-read later after exam suffering has ended. Recall their Falcon bus theory was ??? and I don't really know where it comes from. READ  Dragonfly: Leaning EVIL. Less willing to revise back to null than before. I do feel their D1 vote is - prima facie - a good look, but they made it clear it wasn't informational or tie-chasing but a vote they had investment in, and that they speedread the thread and thought Dingo was Evil. It's a mindset I'm struggling to understand as being Village. Suspending any credit from their D1, I feel their D2 is more low investment / ??? than anything: they posted a vote progression analysis which I'm minded to give mild effort credit for, but don't feel they bothered to really interact or engage with suspicions. They started with Weasel and Heron on their suspicions, sort of stayed in the background after asking for the 1/1/1 reads, and their two votes were on both their starting suspicions. Zero engagement with the reads Dragonfly asked for, one PM on Rhino being confusing. It feels more static and showy to me than something that demonstrates Villager engagement with the game as it is. Acknowledge possibility am tunnelling now but feel Dragonfly minimally merits pressure.  Flamingo: I think I've said everything I want to about Flamingo at this point, honestly. Leaning EVIL but require D2 re-read: acknowledge that Flamingo not self-pressing D2 is a good look but situation changes in a Thug!Flamingo world, especially given it was four hours to EoD. Question if Villager would feel pressure to self-pres especially if not on at EoD. Do not remember if Flamingo was present at EoD. Side-train vote is a place for an Elim to be if, as I suspect, it was a V/V cycle, will take the point there were also lots of non-voters, and that the 6/5 trains are worth a look.  Scorp: Leaning Village but need to commit to re-read D2. Felt their dgaf in placing a vote invalidated by post three minutes before reflects a disregard for optics more consistent with a Villager mindset, and liked their EoD anti-VM attitude, but no strong view and feel this read can be invalidated by player meta. READ/REVISE??? That's it for me, if you have any thoughts and prayers left please send them to my R^2 score which is currently still in the dumps If you see me on this thread and posting before 12 hours to rollover, please yell at me for my own sanity because I really need to focus on the exam and not be distracted with trying to work this out :/
Emerald Falcon Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 Muddled thoughts - I've having varying degrees of suspicion on two distinct groups of people not likely to be evil with each other. Group A - [Meerkat, Hyena, Toucan] ; Group B - [Dragonfly, Flamingo] Croc, Mouse, Albatross, Elephant different shades of green. Of all the possible scenarios of Flamingo, it's probably the Occam's Razor case. Evil!Flamingo helped out by Evil!Lurcher (self or teammate). It's a reasonable assumption to make that a village Lurcher would not protect Flamingo give the directions to shoot them by so many players. Slightly less confident but equally reasonable assumption that if there was evil!Lurcher, we'd have at least named one Spiked out of all of our choices for the kill and they'd have protected such a player instead of a case in which they frame v!Flamingo by protecting them. The opposite of Occam's Razor, the most unlikely scenarios in this case would be v!Lurcher or v!Thug Flamingo, or possible e!Lurcher did protect v!Flamingo in which case the Spiked team were really confident that they wouldn't be the target of the Shot leading to the implication that either our shoot choices were horribly wrong OR it's the case of e!Coinshot. This is just the attack analysis of Flamingo, I'd really like to go back and check the reason for suspicion/heat on them during D2 as I cannot recall anything significant + ISO them. @Salmon Meerkat, why the U-turn on reading Dragonfly vote from N1 to now? During N1, you leaned towards Dragonfly's last-minute vote as village action, and now it's the opposite. 6 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said: Really liking Meerkat's analysis of Dragonfly Same with you, Hyena. Your opinion during N1 was the same as Meerkat's, you read the panicked vote from Dragonfly as village. Why do you now seem to agree with Meerkat's change of stance? Direct contradiction - Quote I feel like the last second vote is villagery here, honestly 6 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said: But I don't see that happening here. As mentioned, D1 was relatively stable in the last six hours. Why does V!Dragonfly panic? And it's an interpretation of a vote, not that of a player. So I'm not sure why an interpretation of a vote should change 180 degrees. I'd be very interested in voting Hyena if there's some support here. For Future-me during re-read: Scorpion x Weasel x Toucan X Meerkat x Hyena + Penguin?
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: @Salmon Meerkat, why the U-turn on reading Dragonfly vote from N1 to now? During N1, you leaned towards Dragonfly's last-minute vote as village action, and now it's the opposite. Because I've had the E!Dragonfly world at the back of my head - I just don't usually think it's worth revising unless the balance of considerations kick me there. Part of this was PM conversations with Hyena and Tuat - I am a simple man and tend to prefer the direct rather than paranoid read. Direct read: V/V, no reason for Elim to care, therefore V!Dragonfly. Paranoid read: E!Dragonfly is metascrewing, or Dingo was killed to make Dragonfly look more V. PM conversations with Hyena - I flag this because I PMed Hyena D2 to ask them why the Dingo flip makes Dragonfly look less Village to them. IMO, the intuitive read is the other way around. Quote I think... I might still lean vil on Dragonfly atm. This is making me reconsider slightly, though] It's a counterintuitive statement, so I ask Hyena about it. Their response is they feel Dingo may have been killed to increase Dragonfly's Village cred. Fine. I press them on it as I feel it's a tad paranoid, and I'm suspicious in the early game of players who want to focus on paranoid possibilities - it denies us intuitive clears and makes it hard to establish progress in the game so it's not a level I like to think on. They agree it is but think it's worth considering all possibilities and say they are still overall V on Dragonfly. Fair enough, and they seem sincere about it. Then, Tuat and I are PMing especially as D2 goes on and we both suspect you for more or less the same reasons. Dragonfly comes up as another player Tuat wants to switch to. I ask Tuat why he's suspicious of Dragonfly. Especially since there's a naked vote in thread. He flags Dragonfly's D2: performativity - attempts to stir discussion with little interest in it, and that he doesn't like Dragonfly's votes. I look at it and shrug and kind of agree, or at least commit to rethink Dragonfly, but mostly my bandwidth is on whether Heron is Evil or not. Part of this, I'll be fair, is that I trust Tuat's instincts, and if he sees something, I'm willing to give that a shot in my head. I'll note is a point that has to do with who I think Tuat is, and how we've played together previously. I look at Dragonfly again during the Night. Suppose I bracket the credences from the vote being a counterintuitive place for an Elim to be - after all, we've had Elims who metascrew before. As I pointed out in my post this cycle, E!Stick in LG91 famously made a vote D1 that an Elim shouldn't have interest in by voting at the last second to try to tiebreak on a V/V EoD train. If I bracket those, then yeah, I'm much less likely to believe in V!Dragonfly. Then there's the open question: do I let that one D1 vote swamp everything to the point it more or less clears Dragonfly for me? Sometimes the answer is yes. In this case, my current feel of it is that the answer is no. Part of this has to do with where my existing reads have fallen. I note your own view of Dragonfly is that their D2 EoD vote is either gutsy Elim or Villager, and you've apparently decided N2 it was a gutsy Elim vote. The short and snarky answer is that it's called belief revision, and if you think E!me would be caught so easily running backwards on a read, I have lerasium to sell you.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said: The short and snarky answer is that it's called belief revision, and if you think E!me would be caught so easily running backwards on a read, I have lerasium to sell you. Ah no, my evil read of you is mainly vibes (non-mainly connections and certain diametrically opposing reads on players). Strong vibes, but mainly vibes nonetheless. I was enquiring to see if there's anything to support the vibes, and to see where you're coming from to check if my vibes are warranted or unwarranted. Anyway, running backwards is not by itself an evil indication. The reason to run backwards is, which is why I asked. Like, "if it's as simple as "Why would v!Dragonfly panic?", why didn't this thought occur in N1 itself?" was my doubt. So basically, post-D1 actions causing retrospective revised interpretation of the vote, got it. To be clear about my thoughts pertaining to Dragonfly, their D1 vote is suspicious, but their D2 vote is... I'd not like to say "village", but rather "not optimal evil play" which is making me reconsider them. D1 vote was still weird enough for me to submit their name for the Shooting.
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: Ah no, my evil read of you is mainly vibes (non-mainly connections and certain diametrically opposing reads on players). Strong vibes, but mainly vibes nonetheless. I was enquiring to see if there's anything to support the vibes, and to see where you're coming from to check if my vibes are warranted or unwarranted. Anyway, running backwards is not by itself an evil indication. The reason to run backwards is, which is why I asked. Like, "if it's as simple as "Why would v!Dragonfly panic?", why didn't this thought occur in N1 itself?" was my doubt. Well, if this further helps: I actually wasn't looking all that closely at every post for a decent chunk of the Night and D2 since I was preparing for my exam and trying not to get overly drawn into thread solving, since that's a distraction and the exam should come first ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ N1 Dragonfly said "I panicked" and I figured maybe it checked out tonally with their use of caps when they were defending themselves in that post and went on past it. It came back into my head both last Night and today when I was re-reading the thread again and Dragonfly's vote-by-vote analysis to try to understand if I was paranoiding on them, and then today, I decided that it didn't really make sense to me. Largely to do with the mention of speedskimming and voting buried at the bottom of Dragonfly's vote by vote analysis, which was a re-evaluation primed by PMs. Why did it only come into my head at this point? No idea. The Meerkat brain works in mysterious ways, or maybe doesn't work at all. Thought Process: "Huh, that's odd. Why would you speedread and vote?" "Actually yeah didn't Dragonfly say they panicked?" "Actually come to think of it, why do you panic if you don't have a horse in the race?" "And if you do, why are you speedreading to slam a vote down on Dingo?" Minimally, I at least want to pressure them for this because it doesn't really fit for me. 18 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: To be clear about my thoughts pertaining to Dragonfly, their D1 vote is suspicious, but their D2 vote is... I'd not like to say "village", but rather "not optimal evil play" which is making me reconsider them. D1 vote was still weird enough for me to submit their name for the Shooting. Where are you on them right now?
Emerald Falcon Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said: Where are you on them right now? In the decreasing order of willing to vote out - Flamingo > Weasel > (Toucan, Dragonfly) > Hyena > (Scorpion, Penguin, Lion) > Ostrich
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: In the decreasing order of willing to vote out - Flamingo > Weasel > (Toucan, Dragonfly) > Hyena > (Scorpion, Penguin, Lion) > Ostrich What's influencing your Weasel view? My problem with Weasel is I don't find anything they've done particularly Villagery minus their attitude towards the Evil Tineye. As listed in my reads, I'm mostly held back by the likelihood of the Dingo kill from a Weasel team but have also hit the point where I don't know if I am writing off too much from Weasel in light of that single point. Plus, teammate kill meta swamping also exists.
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 4, 2023 Posted January 4, 2023 7 hours ago, Opal Lion said: [OOC: I'm in an odd slump right now, can't seem to really form any suspicions. If I had to vote I'd go for Flamingo, since not claiming feels very odd to me. I understand the reasoning, but the biggest thing holding me back is I'd expect an elim to at least cop out a Thug claim when under this much threat. I might try to ISO Dragonfly to see why people are going after him, could someone highlight some of the main reasons for e!Dragonfly?]  Mainly their last votes on both days sealing off a villager and being hard to see from a villagery perspective. D1 they were on Albatross but switched right at the last minute to Dingo. And D2 they were the last vote on Heron. Though I view being unable to come up with reads as an evil problem, but I've had trouble forming my own reads. But I was also having a very hard time focusing on the game, which I think I've solved that problem now. Currently leaning Evil on Lion and Dragonfly. Between medium and light village leaning Meerkat and Crocodile. Lower leaning on Crocodile than Meerkat. 7 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said: Cham: No real read, leaning EVIL. Disengagement so far not a good look, but hope to hear more from them. Not sure about their Heron vote. INTERROGATE Try this experiment. Read through ONLY D2 in about five minutes and decide who you would vote, only from that information. That was all the time I had and it was actually your post about needing more people to vote that made me decide to vote instead of just get off for the day. It helped me climb a bit out of my feeling just out of the game. I don't know why, never had this problem before. I just couldn't engage with the game for the first two days. I can now, but I couldn't before.
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