Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Kas, I assume you don't ascribe to the belief that e!xino = e!me and etc? I'm not sure how to feel about that other than I know I'm not evil, so if I believe it, xino's cleared. I don't know where that notion came from though or the reasoning behind it; I don't know why xino apparently can't be evil with anyone but me.

I do think you're a potential partner for E!Xino. I just also think that I could see Xino with TUN, or Bookwyrm. I'd be more inclined to look there first, but I also think it's better to redo the vote analysis if possible by that juncture - hence my comment that Nerdy and Xino are two black holes we just don't have much about.

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fifth (5): TUN, Stick, Almond, Bookwyrm, Mat

IMO, what's the answer to "why didn't Xino's partner save him"? (Note that I haven't had the chance to do an in depth of C3 vote shifts as I will be commuting shortly.)

One of them is: "Xino's partner is already voting on a CW."

The thing that stops me short is Almond and Insanity have very little support in that world, so likely aren't partnered.

True, Xino didn't sign on to save himself, but Stick noted he was missing for a big chunk of last cycle as well.

My reasons for preferring Xino to Nerdy:

-The donut of Evil
-NKA
-V!Mat read came out of nowhere
-Disliking a maxtrain on principle - in a V!Nerdy world, this is another cycle the Elims sit back and laugh because there is no pressure on anyone.

That's about it, really.

I don't really mind flipping Nerdy because, black hole. And part of me wonders at his insistence of Xino over Aman and disliking the Aman train. Could be honest, could be an Elim wanting to avoid a bad train. I note he's allergic to voting on main / lethal trains.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Possible I'm too committed to a E/E/V C2 EoD, but I don't understand how you can believe in the e!Nerdy world and not the e!Xino world. What has Xino done or not done to be more village than Nerdy?

I never said I didn't believe in the e!xino world, I just haven't thought about it at all :P. Yesterday I was hyperfocused on you only, and then in killing someone active (sorry Fifth >>) and today I think we get more from a Nerdy flip than a xino one and I already had some preexisting suspicion there. (That one part of me sees Nerdy not liking Aman as partnered, but of course there's the other point that e!Aman with both teammates up doesn't switch there)

The rest is understood, thanks.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

Has Stick ever voted Xino? Is it kayana for her to bus Silver over Xino?

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Has Stick ever voted Xino? Is it kayana for her to bus Silver over Xino?

Need to check but I'm commuting shortly - if no one has gotten on it by the time I'm back (~2 hours or so), I'll check it.

And no, I don't think it is, which is what I was outlining just now:

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

FWIW Stick, I'd argue in Bus World that you and Hael rock the best of both worlds, while last minute bussing is a poor strategy for me, but we know I'm biased  

If we assume there was a bus: you and Hael get V credit if he flips but preserve the chance he doesn't as a tie. If you're risk-friendly, that's not really the worst EoD, especially since people might drive for Silver again. Like your Bookwyrm point in LG91 EoD, where you felt there was no way V!Stick defends Bookwyrm then doesn't vote to defend Bookwyrm EoD, consequences be damned: you did commit to casing Silver so I could see E!you feeling that the fact you are on at EoD requires you to vote Silver but also holding back and trying to refuse it until it's too late. I don't get that risk distribution, unless you argue I waited until it was almost foregone 50/50 then made it confirmed.

That being said, I still favour my V!Stick and V!Hael credences, but this crossed my mind and there's no harm in saying it, so I did.

Edited to add:

But then why case Silver in the first place... ._.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Haelbarde he/him]

This may be me misunderstanding how the forum works and/or being unaware of what settings there are around following threads, but it strike me as odd that Xino followed this thread 17 hours ago (i.e. shortly after this thread was posted), but only posted an "Oops, forgot about last cycle" 3 hours ago.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Need to check but I'm commuting shortly - if no one has gotten on it by the time I'm back (~2 hours or so), I'll check it.

And no, I don't think it is, which is what I was outlining just now:

Haha, I literally just read that and somehow immediately forgor.

If e!Xino, which I believe, then we have a lot of potential partners. Stick, Mat, and Bookwyrm have all consistently voted other trains every time. The people who voted Xino over Fifth also look better. Has anyone not voted Nerdy at this point?

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Has Stick ever voted Xino? Is it kayana for her to bus Silver over Xino?

I don't... think so? On a different note, I was looking back at C2 trying to figure out what made Stick unvote Silver (because she pushed his train early, but then had to have been off it to vote there late) and she voted TUN "to diversify options" right after xino voted Nerdy. The VC was

Quote

Nerdy (2): Xino, Mat
Silver (2): Stick, Kas
Devo (1): Aman
Xino (2): Nerdy, Almond

Right before Stick unvoted. To me that seems weird since the options were already pretty diversified, no? I don't know if that works with a Stick/Silver/xino team but it definitely makes sense with a Stick/Silver team.

Also, I formally apologize here for discrediting your part in the Silver exe, I was quite blind. Looking at it now I can see what effect you voting Silver had on that exe.

At EoD, it's also worth noting I think that Stick voted Fifth before going back to Silver. Nerdy was ahead 4-3 when she voted Silver, but if they're both elim with her that doesn't matter too much.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Haelbarde he/him]

3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

This may be me misunderstanding how the forum works and/or being unaware of what settings there are around following threads, but it strike me as odd that Xino followed this thread 17 hours ago (i.e. shortly after this thread was posted), but only posted an "Oops, forgot about last cycle" 3 hours ago.

Infinite might be in a similar position, posting an hour ago but followed thread 15 hours ago.

I think without changing settings, normally posting auto follows, but also by default I think you get email updates on every post in a followed thread, which is great for keeping up with thread without logging on (although you miss out on any edits that happen to posts).

Goes and looks at Shard settings. >>

[Kasimir he/him]

@Szeth_Pancakes

Hey, do you still have a betting pool?

I'm considering placing a bet on the odds I return to a flash wagon >>

(But also brb for real. Will look over everything properly when back.)

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But then why case Silver in the first place... ._.

I mean, she didn't vote him when she cased him, a fact which I actually called out in real time. Her vote came later, and came off after you joined her.

Ngl I kinda wanna start a Stick wagon :eyes:

Edited December 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't... think so? On a different note, I was looking back at C2 trying to figure out what made Stick unvote Silver (because she pushed his train early, but then had to have been off it to vote there late) and she voted TUN "to diversify options" right after xino voted Nerdy, making the VC

Right before Stick unvoted. To me that seems weird since the options were already pretty diversified, no? I don't know if that works with a Stick/Silver/xino team but it definitely makes sense with a Stick/Silver team.

Also, I formally apologize here for discrediting your part in the Silver exe, I was quite blind. Looking at it now I can see what effect you voting Silver had on that exe.

At EoD, it's also worth noting I think that Stick voted Fifth before going back to Silver. Nerdy was ahead 4-3 when she voted Silver, but if they're both elim with her that doesn't matter too much.

No need to apologize! I should have been able to present that data without getting frustrated. It's completely understandable given how covert I was being.

(5) Nerdy: Stick, Xino, Unknown, Bookwyrm, Mat(t),
(4) Xino: Aman, Kas, Insanity, Hael, 

I continue to feel positive about Hael. E!Stick credences rise?

[Haelbarde he/him]

10 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

This may be me misunderstanding how the forum works and/or being unaware of what settings there are around following threads, but it strike me as odd that Xino followed this thread 17 hours ago (i.e. shortly after this thread was posted), but only posted an "Oops, forgot about last cycle" 3 hours ago.

Fwiw, they followed C1 and C2 a couple of hours into the cycles, but are not currently following C3.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

No need to apologize! I should have been able to present that data without getting frustrated. It's completely understandable given how covert I was being.

I think there was a need, but thank you  I just hope you're village >>

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Haelbarde said:

Fwiw, they followed C1 and C2 a couple of hours into the cycles, but are not currently following C3.

I know I have to manually follow every thread and do so as soon as I enter it. Xino not following C3 does indicate honesty (at least that he forgot). I'm just wondering, now that v!Xino remembered enough to briefly let us know he forgot, why is he not posting more?

[Haelbarde he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I know I have to manually follow every thread and do so as soon as I enter it. Xino not following C3 does indicate honesty (at least that he forgot). I'm just wondering, now that v!Xino remembered enough to briefly let us know he forgot, why is he not posting more?

They also didn't post basically anything that day on the Shard either. I still have a problem with the immediate follow but then 14 hour delay before telling us they forgot, even though that was likely honest. Seems the sort of thing you say as soon as you realise you forgot.

It's suggestive that Xino isn't it the active elim, if they are evil.

[InfiniteInsanity she/her]

13 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Infinite might be in a similar position, posting an hour ago but followed thread 15 hours ago.

 

I woke up way super early cause flu decided I would and while I was up waiting for coughing fits to subside so I could go back to sleep I checked rollover stuffs and followed the thread then when back to sleep as soon as possible. After waking up I've had very little motivation until recently when I got fed up of being bored. But I have been read the emails and attempting to process them.

[Amanuensis he/him]

One thing I haven't really factored in my assessment of Nerdy. Possible e!Stick is going for 1 more low-active bus to evade scrutiny until they find Wiznik? I'm looking at the Xino and Nerdy situation like the active elim wants to avoid voting their teammate, not distancing for cred given the specific win condition, and this could be a flaw in my current worldview.

ED1T:

26 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

I woke up way super early cause flu decided I would and while I was up waiting for coughing fits to subside so I could go back to sleep I checked rollover stuffs and followed the thread then when back to sleep as soon as possible. After waking up I've had very little motivation until recently when I got fed up of being bored. But I have been read the emails and attempting to process them.

Hope you feel better soon. Take care of yourself first o7

ED2T:

35 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

(5) Nerdy: Stick, Xino, Unknown, Bookwyrm, Mat(t),
(4) Xino: Aman, Kas, Insanity, Hael, 

I definitely like the Xino voters more overall.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, she didn't vote him when she cased him, a fact which I actually called out in real time. Her vote came later, and came off after you joined her.

Ngl I kinda wanna start a Stick wagon :eyes:

I would like to apply pressure to Stick, but I also feel that's not a good idea right now. Or at least: I have a weak preference to do it when she's around to defend herself or at least say something, and she's indicated she'd gone off to bed. There's a chance it might lure a teammate out so I'm not against it, but yeah.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm looking at the Xino and Nerdy situation like the active elim wants to avoid voting their teammate, not distancing for cred given the specific win condition, and this could be a flaw in my current worldview.

That's my worry, yeah. That we're slightly looking at this as we would in a normal game where losing an Elim sucks more because outnumber/parity, whereas this is technically untrue in this game. However, on further reflection, I don't think it skews the priorities too much - in a completely low-lying Elim team game, they'd have to know how close they were to wincon to safely do that. Suppose there's 5 IC+Winz (WMG number, not expecting to be accurate.) Refusing to prune Village with your NK is risky too: there's no guarantee you can kill through the final three before you run out of Elims. The odds are vastly different if, say, there were three IC+Winz.

As promised:

Nerdy Voters:

Spoiler

C1: No one voted Nerdy

C2: 

(1) Mat:

(2) Xino:

(3): Bookwyrm:

FYI, slight gut negative off Bookwyrm for this post, which makes me a bit more willing to go Xino than I already am.

(4): Aman

The cause of much confusion and consternation....

(5): Kas

C3:

(1): Kas

(2): Hael

C4:

(1) Stick:

(2) Xino:

(3): TUN:

(4): Bookwyrm

(5): Mat

 

Not related but Wiz said this and died C2, so I'm going to paste it here:

Ngl this is a time when I miss using Drake's tallybot (do not have it here) but I feel like it wouldn't be that difficult to modify it to extract all posts in which a player voted on another since you are already counting the instances...

Then you can precisify so it can pull out all instances/posts in which someone votes for Nerdy for instance...

Actually @Amanuensis Question. What drives your E/E/V view of C2? I think you mentioned it somewhere but I'm currently with more tabs than a guy should reasonably have.

I will do the Xino ones in a bit but feel it is better to throw the data to the thread first instead of working on this.

[Amanuensis he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Actually @Amanuensis Question. What drives your E/E/V view of C2? I think you mentioned it somewhere but I'm currently with more tabs than a guy should reasonably have.

I will do the Xino ones in a bit but feel it is better to throw the data to the thread first instead of working on this.

It's kind of two different things leading me to that conclusion?

First, that C2 EoD had so much chaos in the first place. It feels excessive when considering E/V/V trains. Multiple options for elims to choose from. And like Devo pointed out when they died, it seemed like Nerdy was going to die for a while until the return to Silver (v!Nerdy credence?) while Xino basically petered out and got replaced with me.

I realize now I haven't reconciled that view with v!Fifth. If most of the chaos was a result of him and I, this could be a V/V situation... but in that case we're 100% looking at a busser.

(Second point was just that I'm independently sus of Xino for all the reasons I've presented already.)

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Double posting unless someone saves me from this which is quite possible:

Xino Voters:

Spoiler

C1:

No one.

C2:

(1): Kas

(2): Almond

(3): Nerdy

(4): Fifth

C3:

(1): Kas

(2): Nerdy

FWIW this post still gives me a negative ping - feels like an Elim trying to ride off another player to make a case he can't make. But I also DK what incentive Nerdy has as the Aman ML was happening at that point in time.

(3): Kas

(4): Devo

C4:

(1) Kas:

Wow I was really mad o_O Sorry @Matrim's Dice

(2) Aman:

(3) Insanity:

(4): Kas

(5): Hael

 

 

Side-note:

28 minutes. Fast response to a ping from Stick even if not remotely proactive.

THANK YOU AMAN THANK YOU THANK YOU

BRO I WAS SO WORRIED THIS WOULD BE A DOUBLEPOST

[Amanuensis he/him]

30 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

THANK YOU AMAN THANK YOU THANK YOU

BRO I WAS SO WORRIED THIS WOULD BE A DOUBLEPOST

Haha my pleasure.

Re: the votes...

Almond and Insanity very unlikely paired with Xino, which fits my worldview since I personally lean village on them both, plus Hael is v!confirmed imo after an e!Xino flip. Meanwhile, Mat, Stick, and Bookwyrm have never actually touched Xino. In fact, there's just a lot more already proven green on Xino, and a lot more question marks for me on Nerdy.

On the flip side, potential Nerdy partners is something like Aman, Hael, Almond, Insanity, which I have a lot of issue seeing?

Again tho, hard depending on whether or not a Silver voter is going for the solo deep wolf strat.

ED1T:

@xinoehp512 @NerdyAarakocra I'd love some input from you two. If you're village, we'd all appreciate you helping us figure that out

ED2T:

@Kasimir not sure it's relevant but not a single Nerdy voter has died while both Fifth and Devo voted Xino

ED3T:

Something that I noticed at the start of C3. I was extremely grateful that Stick was defending me while Fifth and Mat insisted on e!Me and you slowly worked yourself there too. TMI? She also jumped to Fifth instead of Xino or Nerdy after I shifted enmity against Fifth.

ED4T:

BTW @Fifth Scholar very sorry for my part in your death! I should've voted Xino but felt too guilty to participate =\ I hope we can play again soon and not auto-cannibalize each other

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Almond and Insanity very unlikely paired with Xino, which fits my worldview since I personally lean village on them both

I don't want to AG2 this, but I would note I do think it is extremely harsh/volatile to do a complete new player team - even Meta hesitated and gave them Lopen. Does change the calculus a bit if E!Xino, but my view right now is that there has to be one other player to give the team a bit of stability and I'd rather look there before <Almond, Insanity> IMO.

Other issue is the kill. I sort of feel it's a bit too accurate to not be a snipe. But let's say it's not a snipe.

They're comfortable leaving you, me, Mat, Stick, Hael alive. Why? Are we particularly inaccurate? That's one possibility. But that's why IC count was at the back of my head: I don't feel an Elim team of completely low activity profile/quiet players quite has the nerve to sit deep and take their shots IMO. The fact we're getting flips of quieter players either indicates <JNV, Wiz, Devo> were onto something, or they aren't feeling a particular threat from the five of us, or they're happy to keep us alive, i.e. we can be 'managed.' That always implies to me a team with at least one deepwolf.

I guess I would say this: if the team was really low activity/quiet/too new, we expect more kills here. Yes, snipe, but the nerve issue and the fact we are not currently being a major threat IMO. Unless there's maybe one to two IC left to pop, I don't see where the confidence comes from.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Again tho, hard depending on whether or not a Silver voter is going for the solo deep wolf strat.

That's the big question to me, yeah.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir not sure it's relevant but not a single Nerdy voter has died while both Fifth and Devo voted Xino

Tbf, Fifth is kind of our (as in collective Village) fault, no? Devo I could see as a silencing kill, yeah, though I do wonder if there was some other sign. I could see that in a pool of Xino voters, Devo being a better shot than me. Am surprised they didn't take a potshot at Hael.

Edited to add:

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Something that I noticed at the start of C3. I was extremely grateful that Stick was defending me while Fifth and Mat insisted on e!Me and you slowly worked yourself there too. TMI? She also jumped to Fifth instead of Xino or Nerdy after I shifted enmity against Fifth.

Honestly I read it less as defending you and more as keeping her options open - she was listing points for/against Mat and Fifth as well.

Edited to add 2:

I guess it does mean I feel like I'm working myself back to the view that one of my V!reads is wrong. But at least right now, I still prefer to vote Xino. I just want to know what is going on with our two black holes.

Edited to add 3:

@Amanuensis - If you're considering an E!Stick world right now: Stick wasn't on at D1 EoD, was on at D2 and D3 EoD, plans to sleep today (good!) It's definitely absurdly late for her but I think part of this is me going: hmm about the reasons for comfort with the votestate.

Edited to add 4:

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

It's kind of two different things leading me to that conclusion?

First, that C2 EoD had so much chaos in the first place. It feels excessive when considering E/V/V trains. Multiple options for elims to choose from. And like Devo pointed out when they died, it seemed like Nerdy was going to die for a while until the return to Silver (v!Nerdy credence?) while Xino basically petered out and got replaced with me.

I realize now I haven't reconciled that view with v!Fifth. If most of the chaos was a result of him and I, this could be a V/V situation... but in that case we're 100% looking at a busser.

(Second point was just that I'm independently sus of Xino for all the reasons I've presented already.)

Tbh, I sort of feel the chaos did mostly result from the two of you.

It's one reason why I V!read Fifth in C3 as well when doing vote analysis - E!Fifth is just different and I couldn't see that vote shifting coming from anyone other than a desperate/chaotic V!Fifth. The cycle was a mess in my head when I came back really late but part of my parking the vote on Nerdy was actually a sheep - I saw your vote, figured you knew what you were doing, and went there while I tried to figure out what was going on with Chaos!Fifth and the swings.

Hael's vote was late but stable. Mat swapped but swapped from Nerdy to a side-train. I still feel a large amount of the chaos is basically from Fifth, and then you/Villagers voting around.

I don't disagree with the independent sus of Xino (given the number of times I've voted for him now) - just curious why you were committed to E/E/V because I feel like the more usual guess is Elim v. Villager CW. Taking a step back, it feels sort of kayana we're actually postulating that it was Elim v. Elim C2 EoD. I guess partly where my NKA thoughts are leading me to (but that's one reason I want to flip Xino too - Xino/TUN addresses the ? for me and pushes me significantly closer to Bus World if he flips Village, though I do have E!credences there.)

Edited to add 5:

Ok. Let me try to game this out.

Suppose:

<Silver, Nerdy, X, X>

This team definitely needs at least one regular player. Not speaking of cherry-picking, just whether this would or would not be annulled.

Formal set: <Aman, me, Mat, Stick, TUN, Xino, Hael>

Exclude: Mat, Stick, TUN, Xino.

Suppose:

<Silver, Xino, ?, ?>

This team needs a player who is more present than Silver/Xino.

Formal set: <Aman, me, Mat, Stick, TUN, Nerdy?, Hael, Bookwyrm>

Exclude: Aman, me, Nerdy?, Hael.

Problem with Bookwyrm is: who is stabilising this team or making the kill decisions? Arguably TUN goes for noisier kills or players who suspect him. I feel like one way or another I'm tugged back to the set I didn't really want to look at :/

And largely Stick v. Hael.

It's not impossible Insanity or Almond could be the final ?, and technically same for the final X but that is very rough on them.

Edited to add 6:

3 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

It's suggestive that Xino isn't it the active elim, if they are evil.

Yeah, that's why I feel I'm either tripping or we're more or less in E!Mat, E!Stick, or E!you world. Or E!me I guess, technically.

Even if E!Xino, with E!Bookwyrm a compelling teammate, do they make these kill decisions? I hesitate. Like...what's keeping Xino alive right now?

(Rhetorical)

You need thread presence. You can't rely on Village indecision.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Kasimir
Accident

[Haelbarde he/him]

58 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah, that's why I feel I'm either tripping or we're more or less in E!Mat, E!Stick, or E!you world. Or E!me I guess, technically.

Even if E!Xino, with E!Bookwyrm a compelling teammate, do they make these kill decisions? I hesitate. Like...what's keeping Xino alive right now?

(Rhetorical)

You need thread presence. You can't rely on Village indecision.

Yeah... 

With how comparatively quiet this cycle has been, I almost miss the chaos that Fifth caused >>

(You can stop editing your post now Kas :P)

Edited December 22, 2022 by Haelbarde

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Yeah... 

With how comparatively quite this cycle has been, I almost miss the chaos that Fifth caused >>

@Fifth Scholar

Because he can't reply

Hael: "Why are you changing your votes so many times >>"
Kas: "Because he panicked."
Fifth: "Because chaos >:D"

#IncorrectSEQuotes

Edited to add:

5 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

(You can stop editing your post now Kas :P)

Gar serim, vod :eyes:

Fifth's reply: " >:( "
Fifth's reply: "FFS Kas"

For legal reasons I am not actually conveying the words of the dead and I am in fact putting words in his mouth knowing he can't correct me in the thread  

Edited December 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Fifth Scholar

Because he can't reply

Hael: "Why are you changing your votes so many times >>"
Kas: "Because he panicked."
Fifth: "Because chaos >:D"

#IncorrectSEQuotes

Edited to add:

Gar serim, vod :eyes:

Fifth's reply: " >:( "
Fifth's reply: "FFS Kas"

For legal reasons I am not actually conveying the words of the dead and I am in fact putting words in his mouth knowing he can't correct me in the thread  

Diabolical.

 

To vaguely respond to the rest, I’m kind of sitting at a Xino/Stick world currently. I feel like after LG91 she would be more punishing of his behavior unless they were teamed again? Stalling for time while she meticulously scans the Wiznik doc for info on who to kill?

Idk. I respect her play enough to pull that off. I’m pretty sure she fooled me in TJ’s Blackout game.

That still hinges on E!Xino.

ED1T:

I do want to comment that I liked today when she requested we look at Nerdy if Xino is V. Too obvious? @Kasimir

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis