Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Kasimir he/him]

I have an analysis.

But right now there's a nail-biting ET round between Argentina and France, Mbappe is a god but we already knew that.

Still, go Argentina!

2-2 at ET, break now, let's hope Argentina can recover because what was this game even >>

Edited to add: Probably this thread right now:

"We just found something Kas cares more about than SE! Turns out it's the World Cup."

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Hoooly scud France penalty

You got this Argentina!

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Hoooly scud France penalty

You got this Argentina!

MAN IT WENT TO PENS

ARGENTINA YOU CAN DO THIS

GO GO GO!

EDITED TO ADD: HELL YEAH ARGENTINA DID IT!

Spoiler

So. Uh. SE. There's...a game right? Pens? GK? Red cards? >>

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

MESSSSSSIIIIII MESSI MESSI MESSI

49 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

1/4 of the way through the turn! Here’s a complimentary VC:

  Hide contents

Aman (1): Hael

Kas (1): Dannnnnex

Dannnnnex (4): Kas, Stick, Aman, JNV

Wait we’re only a quarter of the way through? Thought it ended at midnight/every 24 hours. 

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

14 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

MESSSSSSIIIIII MESSI MESSI MESSI

Wait we’re only a quarter of the way through? Thought it ended at midnight/every 24 hours. 

Typo, sorry >>

Halfway through.

Edit: Rollovet!

Edited December 18, 2022 by Ookla the Omniscient

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

TUN yes - Mat wasn't, and that was explicitly why I asked her, because that is explicitly my view on Mat. She's actually V!reading TUN on the basis of his posts, which is a lot more definite than I got from Stick last game. It's a good first look to me anyway. As for Mat, I can see a Village reason for this, and I note that I GMed MR61 where Mat explicitly mourned the fact he didn't get to pull this off in the MR because he was pre-empted. I think that alone should make any reasonable player reluctant to assign a read to Mat on that basis. Would you disagree?

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Stick is village reading TUN but specifically his vote apparently didn't factor into that. I don't see how the possibility that Mat would claim Winzik as a villager contradicts the fact that Stick didn't assign him a read based on that.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

Hello, I'm here now. This game is moving fast and I'm only just figuring things out.

Re-reading the posts so far, something is off about Dannex...Part of this is me trusting more experienced players who are also reading him as elim, and also because he seems to be doing more to deflect possible suspicion than what I've seen him do in the past.

Time for my trademarked "This vote could be subject to change in the future."

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Fifth Scholar said:

MESSSSSSIIIIII MESSI MESSI MESSI

Wait we’re only a quarter of the way through? Thought it ended at midnight/every 24 hours. 

Martinez man god of mind games no wonder he got carded.

Ok. Game relevant thoughts:

-I want to relook the Dannex train tomorrow morning (for me, it's fine, DW, ample time.) Not fundamentally comfortable with the comfort level implied by the votestate right about now.

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Stick is village reading TUN but specifically his vote apparently didn't factor into that. I don't see how the possibility that Mat would claim Winzik as a villager contradicts the fact that Stick didn't assign him a read based on that.

My point is that Stick does get hedgy as an Elim and she does it by refusing to assign a read, or waffling. This was literally the whole point of me badgering her on her thoughts on Dannex, TUN, and Mat. We saw this in action in D1 LG91, where she did exactly that on V!Mat, trying to keep her options open. She's much less hedgy here.

The other reason is I'm a sadist and I remember exactly how much E!me hated it when Aman kept @ing me to ask me stuff in QF59 so I thought I'd share the love   I don't consider refusing to consider TUN's vote to be more V than E to be an especially weird take as the game so far has indicated it finds my takes weird, and moreover, I don't have as good a read on TUN as a player, in general, as I'd like. Saying that the refusal to utilise TUN's vote in her read of TUN makes her hedgy is just odd - sure it's a specific point on which to hedge, but I don't see that as being as worrisome as hedging on the player himself. Her view of TUN is in spite of it and I'm okay with that. I guess you could say you are only making a statement about what is hedgy but that's just odd - why are you only interested in litigating hedging apart from the context of the entire game?

I'm not sure what you think is hedgy about that again. Once again, you are defending a literal definition of hedginess. Well, is it literally hedgy if she refused to assign him a read on that basis? I guess? But compare that to her view of V!Mat in LG91 D1:

Quote

  On 11/22/2022 at 2:18 AM, Kasimir said:

@_Stick_ So for all I know, you could be Evil too, but I'm curious if you're getting that vibe off him because you did the last time.

I was actually just about to comment on that - the answer is not exactly. Does he seem a little combative? Maybe, but I'm wondering if that's my conf bias playing into it. I don't think I'm getting the vibes as explicitly as I got in that other game. Ignoring just pure vibes though, and looking at actual posts, there's this:

  On 11/22/2022 at 2:11 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Would this be a bad time to mention my e!Kas credences are higher than normal  

I don't think e!Mat would just put this out here without following it with something more...substantial. It doesn't seem to serve a purpose, other than (badly) addressing the he's not paranoid enough point you brought up. 

  On 11/22/2022 at 2:47 AM, Kasimir said:

Got ninjaed by Turtle so I have to post this separately. I'll be mad if this borks my formatting.

Like sure, you know what, I'll spell it out, Illwei and Stick do me a favour and just don't read this until you're done with the thread:

  Reveal hidden contents

Hm. I'm now. Hm. 

I do kind of agree with some of those points but maybe not to that exact extent. Like I said, he seems combative and in a defensive mood, but I can't decide whether I'm fully on board with that being the only e!mat indicator and also I'm growing paranoid of you two now but isnt this too early to be thread brawling?? 

quick guys tell me if kas/mat e/e could potentially be a thing xD 

This is insanely hedgy. This isn't a commitment to V!Mat or a straight refusal to assign a read, just outright waffling IMO and padding on both sides of the fence. This is E!Stick keeping her options open because a V!Mat/V!Kas threadbrawl is fine for her team.

Like, perhaps we are talking past each other. I am not interested in whether Stick correctly fits a Platonic ideal of hedging. I'm interested in whether this hedging looks Evil or not. I think the refusal to assign a read to Mat is fairly straightforward, fairly determined, fairly reasonable, and to the point. It is a direct response - and it seems to come from a different sort of place, a certain comfort and confidence with the thread.

10 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I think I want to chalk it up to NAI  I don't think his claim narrows the potential!winziks pool down for the elims becuase real!winzik could very well claim like that in hopes of it clearing them of actually being Winzik. A non-winzik villager could claim like that to attempt to bait the NK. An elim could claim like that to gauge thread reaction to find real!winzik. So this should only be NAI and nothing else. 

As stated, I also think it is an eminently reasonable point of view to take on, given that Mat explicitly wanted to try this gambit when Evil in just such a position. The fact it is plausible from both V!Mat and E!Mat's perspectives as a play should jolly well lead to a reasonable NAI answer, and that's not hedging. That's a fairly decisive claim "this doesn't matter", rather than "well, I can see both E and V Mat." I think the way I would put it is NAI is a direct evaluation - V and E Mat ish is beating about the bush.

Fine, maybe I'm wrong. I misread Stick when it counted on late D3 of that LG and wouldn't have held my vote firm if not for JNV. But this is C1 and I'm fine with my Stick read for now.

-More Dannex (sorry for the lack of organisation.)

Raw Dannex Data:

Dannex:

Raw Thoughts 

Spoiler

MR47 - Evil Win
-First Evil game; some anomalies to be expected.

C1:
-Fairly laidback response to poke vote early on - vote consciousness but also potentially more measured response.
-Likes to start with Elim number estimates
-Has difficulty generating suspicions and therefore keeps suspicions downplayed - vague gut reads on "some people" and later Mat.
-Does not like to defend suspicions against pressure - withdraws easily. Potentially the case that E!Dannex is overly concerned with appearing 'correct' in the thread.
-Basically claims that verbosity is an Elim tell. Potential preference for easy targets - Archer's post certainly attracted a lot of sus.
-Left vote on Archer: comfortable with leaving train once instigated, little interest in trying to further converse or sensemake.

C2:
-Tends to be very defensive: likes to preface/clarify things as not being retaliatory, or that he isn't bandwagoning. Concerned with how he appears in the thread.

C3:
-Increase in thread confidence as players are killed - may be a sign to watch out for as E!Danex increases thread presence after feeling he has achieved control.
-Continues to struggle with developing suspicions - main suspicion voiced that isn't gut is based on what Danex believes to be a "classical" Elim tell. Could explain V!Danex's suspicion of heuristics.

C4:
-Note of interest: team is employing a divide and conquer strategy where votes are concerned. 
-Essentially thinks defensiveness is NAI but also that the classical Elim tell works. Oy vey. Yeah yeah this is a Danex profile but I just cannot.
-Clear employment of metascrewing, which implies E!Danex awareness of own patterns. Oy vey. 
-Attempted sayonara post, with massive 180s and likely trying to confuse Village.

Quote

How should we make the absolute most of my death? I’m thinking of posting another reads list, making Liranil my biggest Elim read. When I flip Elim, they might get suspicious of that. At the very least it might cause some confusion, or give something for the village to talk about, when it actually is completely irrelevant.

 

Ngl this game was frustrating to read I am unnecessarily infuriated by Straw's willingness to sell out the Village like that >>

LG81: Elim win
-Man does this guy have a power Elim record or what lemme check - yeah okay 3/4 Elim games won, sheesh.
-Liking for suspicion kills, or at least considers that aspect:

Quote

I think Tani is a pretty good kill target, I am slightly worried that people will suspect me cause of her vote, but other than that it seems like our best choice. 

-Danex notes that he is very defensive as a Villager and is trying to dial back as an Elim: worth checking in terms of responsiveness later on.

Quote

I’m usually pretty defensive as a villager, so I was trying to be defensive but not too defensive. Not sure if it worked =P.

-Willingness to adopt deliberate inactivity and no kill strategies if it benefits his team.

Quote

I might not vote anyone tomorrow, just play it safe and be completely inactive 

Ill post something the night cycle, so that the lack of a kill doesn't automatically incriminate me
But I might be intentionally inactive D5

D1:
-Brief thoughts and preparation to vote on quiet players, where, conveniently, less fuss is.
-Reacts to Tani's vote on him. Comparative restraint noted.
-Responds to Archer with no solid Elim team size guess - possible preference to appear poorly informed.
-Again, comfortable start and disappears.

N1:
-A lot of waffling and no definite reads - refuses to give a solid opinion on Mage.
-Due to suspicion from Mage about being Tani's last vote, pushes counternarrative that Tani was low info NK. Not strictly-speaking false but the suspicion element certainly didn't stop Danex.

D2:
-More waffling on Mage. Should open a waffle shop. Suspicions are couched as vaguely as possible.
-Conflict with Araris and Mat, Araris calls him out about vote unhelpful to the Village - useful in light of Danex's tendency to park.

Also all hail Araris for gems like this:

-This post is so much nonsense I cannot even help I KNOW I AM HERE TO BACKWARDS ANALYSE JUST LET ME VENT DAMNIT. Long story short: Dannex needs to vote Mage. Invented reason to go onto Mage. Done.
-Struggles to be able to actually show he's doing analysis or engaging. More vagueness.
-Two points of note here: likes to metascrew by questioning why his actions are E. With Danex, this needs to be avoided. Failure to explain does not imply V Danex but potentially a failure of imagination. Moreover, has a tendency to defensiveness tempered by Elim self-consciousness: paggro search for reinforcement against Araris here with a dash of very mild - I think words have meanings so I'm going to say COlighting and call it a day.

N2:
-No see no jitsu

D3:
-Willingness to vote V!read suggests no substance to V read in the first place. Once again requests rationale - do not recall seeing this fixation with V!Danex.
-Opportunistic move to Araris, joining V read he was willing to vote on anyway. Oy vey.
-Continued abuse of E!him reasoning - amply clear that if Danex's alignment is in question, Danex cannot be trusted with an analysis of why E!him wouldn't do the thing. Cf. also LG91 E!Aman.
-Continued inability to form suspicions. Note that E!Danex struggles and tries to use thread presence to conceal the fact he is allergic to commitment.
-Fixation with exlo despite no constructive contribution to the Village.
-Continued attempt to compensate for no concrete contribution with volume. TJ's Principle, guys. TJ's Principle sfm.
-Literally votes ashwastaken because why not let's kill somebody. I have no words.
-Immediately swaps to Mat. Opportunism in action.
-I don't know how many times I've said 'struggles to form suspicions' but this continues to be true. Literally pushing for Mat as "using stats like that this far in is such a red flag for me." Someone needs to tell me how the frick he is getting away with rigid adherence to predetermined, vague red flags when it's freakin' exlo. God, why. Use of template suspicions continues to indicate genuine difficulty forming suspicions as Elim.
-Note that this continues Danex's trend of ramping up midgame after some modicum of thread control has been asserted via kills.

N3:
-How Not To Be Seen

D4:
-The guy who insists people have reasons has fairly thin reads. And is Evil. Still noncommitment. Who'da thunk?
-Votes Mat because what if Mat is Evil. I don't know how many times I'm running out of words here. If you are voting at potential lylo based on a goddamned what if then what the bloody frick is your fricking point in worrying about when lylo is because you sure bloody frithing hell ain't doing anything with it anyway. God.
-For someone who insists on reasons, has paper-thin reads and vagueness.
-Narrative pushing.

N4:
-Request for bluetext that basically makes no sense. Asked Az a question. First sign of potential participation in quite a while.

D5:
-lylo push for Az. No real substance, worth keeping in mind agenda.
-Once again, "Vote better than no vote, disprove I'm Elim." This is goddamned lylo or close to it. Cares more about his image and the fact it's a vote that doesn't screw his team over than actually being Village.
-Insists no Elim would kill Tani over a single vote. Worth noting he's technically correct and wrong - again, this should not be regarded as a means of exonerating or disambiguating for E!Danex as he enjoys this line of argument. Once again, TJ Principle.

END.

QF57: Elim win

C1:
-Poke on Illwei as opener. Fairly standard.
-Eases his way into a Mat vote. A bit more specificity, which is nice. I feel like I'm watching E!Dannex grow across games, wow.
-Nothing else, which, well, QF but also by this point de rigor for E!Dannex.

C2:
-CC votes at lylo. Help.
-Rolls with Illwei's bluff. Probably incredibly confused. Asking for a rebuttal is a prima facie bad sign, but this is a specific set of circumstances that won't obtain in this game unless someone is drunk so I dgaf.
-Again, appeal to "why would E me do this." Heads-up: if Danex asks why would E!him do this, he probably did anyway. It's his favourite defense tactic.
-I'm just going to ignore everything unless there's somehow a chaotic EoD here where a Seeker fakeclaims and people regard this seriously because it's all EoD related.
-Does accelerate Dannex's timetable but keep in mind E!Dannex comes online when his team needs it, not to solve.

LG90: Elim loss

-Thanks Illwei and Cinnamon and Silver.

D1:
-Declines to make any opening comment on distro - deviation from past E!Dannex openers, unclear why.
-Promissary note to look at EoD trains due to train activity, which never materialises - E!Dannex just doesn't care to thread unless it affects the strategic goals of his team. 
-Lurked at EoD without intervention.

N1:
-Questions Cinnamon about vote.
-Opportunistically tries to sus Kas, waffles about it, gets et for it, backs off.

D2:
-Massive hedge on Turtle, faintest smudge of sus on shadow.
-Parks on Stick, no real reason, just follows.

N2:
-No appearendo

D3:
-Dannex really likes accusing players of lying and it makes me wonder a lot about his Elim play ngl. 
-Continued fixation on how he is read/perceived from previous runs.
-I feel as though E!Dannex's problem with generating suspicions is better hidden over the last two games but still continues - he more or less just pulls entire teams out of whole cloth and speculates them based on a player defending another rather than actual reason to think so.
-@s shadow for voting Mat for bad vibes. Soot-darkened pot calling the kettle black.
-Likes a scattershot approach for finding suspicions. Zags back on shadow and votes JNV for not having a reads list or vote.

N3:
-Corrects Alv on vote manip.

D4:
-Uses NKA to isolate new players. E!Dannex has a habit of convenience-picking a player pool to sus based off NKA conclusions. Gerrymandered as there is no reason to go back to the newbies since he himself believes there aren't that many.
-Defends against a legitimate argument from Archer on the basis of playstyle - tendency to try to convert arguments against him to NAI or COlight when Evil.
-Narrative pushing.
-Really doesn't like getting attacked and doubles down on defensiveness: strong tone here.
-Tries to FUD Cin for no apparent reason (OH THANK FRICK THIS SAVED I ACCIDENTALLY SHUT THE TAB WHILE WORLD CUP THIS COULD'VE BEEN MAJORLY FRUSTRATING FAST.) Increased thread activity confirms player profile IMO.
-Opportunistic sheep of a Villager against a Villager sussing him and giving him trouble.

This cycle was the one where the Village does like France with those two goals in 90s. RIP Argentina, that's one shock to the system.

N4:
-Fluff post at night under threat of death.
-Backs Illwei against Archer - opportunism again.
-Advocates infokill N4 are you frickin' serious -.-

D5:
-Absent for basically entire D5. Deliberate choice - strategising in E!doc.

N5:
-Functionally nothing.

 

Summation / tldr;

Quote

-The raw data is there, linked to the posts, if anyone is interested in claiming I'm being dishonest or to check my working.
-E!Dannex is typically less active early on and escalates in activity into the game, as needed, or when his team needs thread presence, e.g. nearing lylo. In other words, I would argue that opportunistic thread presence is a potential sign of E!Danex - he will comment but he is simply disengaged from the game and primarily works for the strategic objectives of his team.
-I hypothesise that this is partly because E!Dannex typically lacks confidence to challenge thread heavy players until there is more content and he has whittled down their numbers a little.
-E!Dannex is extremely opportunistic, and will easily reverse views or change suspicions as suits his team or to stay away from problematic trains.
-E!Dannex has a tendency to go for meta-plays: has suggested inactivity plays and tried to accuse a player of lying in LG90.
-This IMO is a point in Dannex's favour, along with the confidence point: he doesn't like to get into thread clashes early. Prima facie, the fact he's willingly walked into a brawl with me or any thread heavy player might be a positive sign. In LG81, he played off Tani's vote on him as a chaotic poke vote, though to be fair, I haven't given him the option here.
-The counterpoint is that it is also true I don't see him aggressively attacked this early in any of the four games I have examined (he has only four Elim games so that's my data set) and when he does get attacked later on, he goes for trying to undermine his opponent, e.g. appealing to the thread to passive-aggressively determine Araris was tripping in LG81.
-In general, E!Dannex is a rather defensive player. I don't mean this just in terms of his response to attack, but that the common trend across games is that it is clear his image as a player matters to him - he constructs his posts with that in mind, from insisting that he didn't collaborate with Breaker in his first Elim game and that his vote wasn't retaliatory (also his first Elim game), to voting Araris at lylo to prove he wasn't teamed with Araris in LG81.
-I would argue he also struggles with forming suspicions - this is more apparent in his earlier games where he uses vague, hedgy language ("bad vibes on some readers.") He has since managed to disguise it rather well with a variety of techniques: engaging with one or two points in posts, opportunistic wagon-following, opportunistically following some Villager or responding to them/suspicion by theorising a lot of crack teams. (I think this is worth a look because I don't remember V!Dannex in QF62 being anywhere near as eager to theorise a crack team.) Also rigid heuristic application, by taking non-consensus Elim tells without context to get votes in, e.g. LG81, where Mat is apparently sus because using stats at lylo is a red flag. If you look though, E!Dannex appears engaged by thread volume (detailed in the raw data above) but doesn't often really go deep or do analysis. This allows him to keep his options open or opportunistically swap without being nailed down for it.
-Dannex absolutely loves to claim that he's doing what E!him wouldn't do. To argue on that line of argument is to play into his hands by allowing him to control the narrative. Time and time again, E!Dannex stridently denies he is doing what E!him bloody well did. You do not discover E!Danex by playing the "would E!Danex do this" game at face value. More in a bit.

Analysis/Insights:

Quote

-Insights sounds deeper than it is but oh well.
-The key takeaway IMO is that you discover E!Danex by analysis of how he is engaging with the thread: is it selective? Does he come alive when certain players are threatened? Does he hang back and show no investment in solving or in appearing/getting read as Village? (There is a subtle difference in that last bit I'd be happy to say more about, as I noticed it in LG91, but nothing much hinges on this.) 
-FWIW as I don't expect a D1 read to be this strong or good or accurate: if I'm not around closer to endgame, I'd ask that anyone still alive be wary of the "would E!Danex do that" line of reasoning - look for opportunistic switches in votes and inconsistent reads. Look for hedging and refusal to commit. Look at piggybacking off Villagers to briefly engage with them only to theorise at least ten crack Elim teams with no basis for them. Look for a selective pattern of activity indicating refusal to engage rather than inability to.

I think that's about it from me.

Well, one more point.

I do think it is odd and a deviation for Danex to be this brawly this game when E!him historically tends to avoid early clashes. And I'm not sure the vote state inspires confidence right now. But JNV's post did make me look for something I remembered:

This was a nonsensical lynch. We basically had far better candidates than Danex and Danex was getting lynched for reasons I still do not understand when we had a soft mechclear of him that Devo was pointing out, due to a tonne of Mat FUD.

Dannex is totally chill with it there.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Interested in where you find her hedgy :eyes:

Wouldn’t you like to know  

Greetings, @JNV! You have woken me from hibernation but I do not mind  

I am currently in a state where I do not have real time to want to care about the meta arguments being made, don’t really have the experience to make or respond to them anyway because I’ve been out of the loop, and don’t really care about the discussion around size of elim teams/IC because knowing or not knowing it doesn’t really change our objectives. Gotta shrek Elims, gotta not shrek villagers. Mind games are up to the people in the doc to wrangle. I am writing off pretty much all of that discussion as NAI, with possible exceptions for TUN who I distrust. I also don’t trust Kas as much as I’d expect to at this point, but I’m not gonna hold that against him till later because the World Cup focus may be confounding his usual village presence. Devo seems village again, which scares me as much as it did in the MR >>

in interest of starting a new Discourse I am interested in shrekking Matrim today

[NerdyAarakocra They/Them]

Kas

When in doubt, go for someone who other people seem to want to go up against.

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Wouldn’t you like to know  

No drek I do? I read her V, and you're calling her hedgy. I'm interested in whether there's something I'm not seeing, or whether your Village streak has once again been strangled in the crib

21 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I am writing off pretty much all of that discussion as NAI

I sympathise, but I have to say it's also disappointing when the case for V!reading Stick is essentially made off a single post comparison. If you dismiss the entire content of the Day on the grounds it's uninteresting to you, that doesn't make it NAI - that makes it a major case of CBA and gets my hackles up because it shows a disinterest in trying to get it right.

21 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Devo seems village again, which scares me as much as it did in the MR >>

That's interesting because I'm not getting anything off her right now, and you were paranoiding on her a short while after C1.

21 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

in interest of starting a new Discourse I am interested in shrekking Matrim today

Cool. Is this a policy lynch?

Edited to add: Let me sharpen the point. It gets my hackles up because it exonerates you of needing to engage with any discussion whatsoever and allows you to just stick to your guns and appear constructive while doing so. You may very well be approaching it from a Village perspective, but the slip from "I do not want to deal this" (understandable) to "this is NAI, too bad" is a significant one. You have the right to refuse to engage in this discussion but dismissing discussion you are uninterested in as NAI is not NAI - that's CBA.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

No drek I do? I read her V, and you're calling her hedgy. I'm interested in whether there's something I'm not seeing, or whether your Village streak has once again been strangled in the crib

I sympathise, but I have to say it's also disappointing when the case for V!reading Stick is essentially made off a single post comparison. If you dismiss the entire content of the Day on the grounds it's uninteresting to you, that doesn't make it NAI - that makes it a major case of CBA and gets my hackles up because it shows a disinterest in trying to get it right.

That's interesting because I'm not getting anything off her right now, and you were paranoiding on her a short while after C1.

Cool. Is this a policy lynch?

Is it a streak if it lasts only one game?  And she has a hedge. Doesn’t mean she is the hedge. Yet. But we’ll see how often she hides in it.  

Uninteresting, kind of—the Elim count speculation is genuinely uninteresting in the sense that I actually am not curious on speculating into the distro armed with zero information, and don’t expect it to lead anywhere productive. The meta discussion on TUN and Dannex is perhaps more fruitful, but I can’t participate very fully because I have no way of looking into it without using my SE time catching up on games that aren’t this one, which isn’t a good use of it for me. Might be for you, since you have grounding in those games, but I’m going solely off what I see in thread and what I can dig up from the past in less than a couple minutes. You can call this low effort and you’d probably be right, but it’s a QF and I’m not apologising.

A v!Devo read always entails paranoia, but I do stand by this one >>

It is not. It is a vote for Matrim in this specific instance, and is somewhat an extension of my unease towards you—namely, that you were defending his claim on his behalf. I would like to hear his own justification for what he was hoping to get from it, as the move, while fun, is also potentially distracting. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm keen for a cheeky Matrim vote.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Is it a streak if it lasts only one game?  And she has a hedge. Doesn’t mean she is the hedge. Yet. But we’ll see how often she hides in it.  

Uninteresting, kind of—the Elim count speculation is genuinely uninteresting in the sense that I actually am not curious on speculating into the distro armed with zero information, and don’t expect it to lead anywhere productive. The meta discussion on TUN and Dannex is perhaps more fruitful, but I can’t participate very fully because I have no way of looking into it without using my SE time catching up on games that aren’t this one, which isn’t a good use of it for me. Might be for you, since you have grounding in those games, but I’m going solely off what I see in thread and what I can dig up from the past in less than a couple minutes. You can call this low effort and you’d probably be right, but it’s a QF and I’m not apologising.

A v!Devo read always entails paranoia, but I do stand by this one >>

It is not. It is a vote for Matrim in this specific instance, and is somewhat an extension of my unease towards you—namely, that you were defending his claim on his behalf. I would like to hear his own justification for what he was hoping to get from it, as the move, while fun, is also potentially distracting. 

It's always the beginning of a proto streak. 

See, here's what I don't understand. If you think I'm suspicious, then vote on me. I'll help you out: Kasimir.

You seem to be saying your E!Mat issues, I quote, come from your unease about me. There are sharper comments I could make about how for all you claim Village me should be apparent by now, paranoia or you being Evil is very good at making players not see the obvious. This is easily the third or fourth game I've been paranoided on for being too noisy, too visible, too not apparently Village, whatever.

My point is, if you are Village then I don't understand your vote. Your entailment is then from me to Mat, specifically because you don't like me pointing out that the action is weird or distracting but voting on that basis os pretty much weird too. If Mat flips V, it doesn't help you answer whether a world in which E!me defended Mat. So are you fishing about for another convenient train? 

I mean lbr I genuinely don't care, the dead doc has Araris and I can probably talk World Cup with Szeth so if you think I am Evil, why don't you just take the shot? That's the correct order of entailment. 

[Mat he/him]

Ok I’m here now. Should be able to actually play the game within the hour. Sundays are busy though.

Gotta love how one post can be so… magnetic for red votes  I, of course, am not actually Winzik. Or am I. Who knows. The elims get to be confused now! Yay!

That more or less was my justification for that post. Give the elims a fun IKYK, maybe draw an NK my way. Saying this adds to it. Have fun, elims! Exeing me takes the fun out of that, doesn’t it

Will really respond to things later but I’m kinda surprised the analysis OG people seem to be fine with exeing the joke claim guy when there has to be something more… analysis-y.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm keen for a cheeky Matrim unvote.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's always the beginning of a proto streak. 

See, here's what I don't understand. If you think I'm suspicious, then vote on me. I'll help you out: Kasimir.

You seem to be saying your E!Mat issues, I quote, come from your unease about me. There are sharper comments I could make about how for all you claim Village me should be apparent by now, paranoia or you being Evil is very good at making players not see the obvious. This is easily the third or fourth game I've been paranoided on for being too noisy, too visible, too not apparently Village, whatever.

My point is, if you are Village then I don't understand your vote. Your entailment is then from me to Mat, specifically because you don't like me pointing out that the action is weird or distracting but voting on that basis os pretty much weird too. If Mat flips V, it doesn't help you answer whether a world in which E!me defended Mat. So are you fishing about for another convenient train? 

I mean lbr I genuinely don't care, the dead doc has Araris and I can probably talk World Cup with Szeth so if you think I am Evil, why don't you just take the shot? That's the correct order of entailment. 

I don’t want to vote on you though.  Somewhat because you’re fun to have around, somewhat because you’re talkative and we thus get to mine more information by killing you later, partly because I don’t have real suspicion for you beyond paranoia, which I’ve noted. If you’re going to take my paranoia away from me, you can do that, but you also take away my main vote incentives. Mat was a better early target—to counter your point, if you flip village, it doesn’t answer for whether Mat’s claim is well-intentioned. It’s the more suspicious/notable action, so I started there. Not sure what your problem is with that. I can multitask with my suspicions. I tend to do that a lot anyways  

1 minute ago, Ookla the Tall said:

Ok I’m here now. Should be able to actually play the game within the hour. Sundays are busy though.

Gotta love how one post can be so… magnetic for red votes  I, of course, am not actually Winzik. Or am I. Who knows. The elims get to be confused now! Yay!

That more or less was my justification for that post. Give the elims a fun IKYK, maybe draw an NK my way. Saying this adds to it. Have fun, elims! Exeing me takes the fun out of that, doesn’t it

Will really respond to things later but I’m kinda surprised the analysis OG people seem to be fine with exeing the joke claim guy when there has to be something more… analysis-y.

Yeah I get Sunday busy-ness. :/ 

Alright if there’s something better out there, go find it  You’re an analysis-y OG person; surely something has stricken your interest. So far the thread has been, as I’ve already noted, discussion of stuff that I either don’t have opinions on, or don’t have the ability to have opinions on. This is a bit different. If you expected your claim to do this, congrats, it worked.  Enjoy your free suspicion. If you have other targets in mind, I’m happy to hear them. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 hours ago, Ookla the Myopic said:

Yes.

It's very strange seeing all the village FUD to disguise the inner circle. Very good, but still strange.

Wizard. Why is this your only post today? I've seen you reading.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I don’t want to vote on you though.  Somewhat because you’re fun to have around, somewhat because you’re talkative and we thus get to mine more information by killing you later, partly because I don’t have real suspicion for you beyond paranoia, which I’ve noted. If you’re going to take my paranoia away from me, you can do that, but you also take away my main vote incentives. Mat was a better early target—to counter your point, if you flip village, it doesn’t answer for whether Mat’s claim is well-intentioned. It’s the more suspicious/notable action, so I started there. Not sure what your problem is with that. I can multitask with my suspicions. I tend to do that a lot anyways  

Yeah I get Sunday busy-ness. :/ 

Alright if there’s something better out there, go find it  You’re an analysis-y OG person; surely something has stricken your interest. So far the thread has been, as I’ve already noted, discussion of stuff that I either don’t have opinions on, or don’t have the ability to have opinions on. This is a bit different. If you expected your claim to do this, congrats, it worked.  Enjoy your free suspicion. If you have other targets in mind, I’m happy to hear them. 

Simply put: notable =/= suspicious though, and you've framed your unease about him as being substantively dependent on your unease about me. The point is if that's your order of evidence, then the correct way to go is in terms of evidential priority and dear God I can't believe the world is twisted enough I'm saying this but your refusal to follow your own logical entailment and kill me first is really making me start to doubt you. 

As a more general aside: Nerdy's vote is nakedly opportunistic. But second game. I don't know the right level to think on for newer players and have a tendency to get it wrong. 

Not sure where Mat's issue with OG analysis players comes from given we both literally just watched Fifth tunnel hard on new players and Alv because who needs meta or context we just ML like men. 

Edited to add: If you've ever wondered how Jain got MLed, this is literally the most OG vote Fifth could cast. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

As a more general aside: Nerdy's vote is nakedly opportunistic. But second game. I don't know the right level to think on for newer players and have a tendency to get it wrong. 

My initial read of that was too disconnected to be elim. I would expect them to receive some advice before it.

What do you think about the one Wizard post I resurfaced?

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

My initial read of that was too disconnected to be elim. I would expect them to receive some advice before it.

What do you think about the one Wizard post I resurfaced?

Hmm. 

It puts me in mind of something that used to be true about E!Wiz. I would straightforwardly agree this is a good catch. There is more I could say but I am weighing how explicit to be given this game's set up. 

I would agree with pressure on him. 

With regard to advice — reluctant to bet the farm on this. QF63 reasons. Was badly wrong. Has to do with overestimating the team and amount of advice going down, similar deal for Archivist on the Mat-Danex-Wiz team. Stick and I disagreed, I felt Archivist's vote was too Evil for him not to have been advised against it. Stick was right. 

Either way I'm not keen on a second game player on a D1. 

Edited to add: @Ookla the Tall, current state of your Wiz thoughts? 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm. 

It puts me in mind of something that used to be true about E!Wiz. I would straightforwardly agree this is a good catch. There is more I could say but I am weighing how explicit to be given this game's set up. 

I would agree with pressure on him. 

With regard to advice — reluctant to bet the farm on this. QF63 reasons. Was badly wrong. Has to do with overestimating the team and amount of advice going down, similar deal for Archivist on the Mat-Danex-Wiz team. Stick and I disagreed, I felt Archivist's vote was too Evil for him not to have been advised against it. Stick was right. 

Either way I'm not keen on a second game player on a D1. 

Are you thinking Fifth and Danex work on a team together? E!Fifth proposing a Matrim alternative doesn't make much sense otherwise.

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Are you thinking Fifth and Danex work on a team together? E!Fifth proposing a Matrim alternative doesn't make much sense otherwise.

Why not? In a V!Danex world which I'm still entertaining, Fifth gets free Village points from pushing Mat and not continuing to allow people to dig deeper into the Danex hole. At the point of hos vote, Danex must have been four or five votes deep. I think that's the classic stage an Elim who is as noisy as Fifth would seek an alternate sidetrain rather than by alarming everyone else by stacking further. 

I think the blunt CBA could be a good look for Fifth and maybe I'm a bit more thrown than I should be by the paranoia, but his reads and approach are ods to me. I say all this just to acknowledge I think such a move is necessary coming from a good Villager. Day discussion mustn't narrow. He avoided that. Good. But that it's an exceptionally low cost place to insert yourself as an Elim if the Village is about to screw itself over. Curious why you don't seem to think that's a viable route. 

Edited to add: Confused by the shift from Wiz back to Fifth/Danex. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

13 hours ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

I will always operate under the following principle as a villager:

If a piece of information does not help the Elim team, it should be shared with the Village

I kind of have trouble thinking of hidden information that wouldn't help the elim team in some way, tbh. Like unless an IC member openly claims in the doc and verifies it in thread I think there'd be enough uncertainty to not claim at all. I'd advise all IC members to just not talk about identity.

Actually, is there any incentive to talk at all? Like any incentive :P. Just a thought. I hate short docs as much as the next guy but in this case less talking -> less possibilities for the elims to narrow someone down based on speaking patterns -> more random guessing. And random guessing on their part is typically good for us.

12 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Side note: Leaning village on TUN

Dannex

Disagreement with both of those things. Like Kas, I don't like TUN's p1 that much. You yourself pointed out that asking whether or not to theorize on IC size is just asking what people think the IC size is. His vote on me was one I could see e!him doing, as well as the unvote, but I hedge on this one cause v!him would also probably be fine voting me there.

I sympathize much with Dannex because I've been where he is :P. Kas-- to no fault of his own-- virtually shut down Dannex's points which I found quite valid, and more or less expected reasoning where he didn't give himself. I say to no fault of his own because that's how Kas talks in thread, and I don't read him elim for it, I just don't think he really treated the Dannex argument fairly early on. Dannex seemed fine to me.

Also like Kas, I'm quite surprised these are the two reads you ended up on. If I'd had to have guessed before reading this post, I would have been wrong on both.

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Long story short, while Devo rebuked Silho for claiming Jedi or softclaiming Jedi in that MR, that sort of move is actually highly encouraged in A:tR - A:tR meta is rife with Merlin claims because the costs of losing the Merlin are so high that you never ever want the Elims/Mordred's Minions to get a clear bead on the Merlin. There are reasons A:tR meta doesn't translate well to SE, some of which I suspect are sociological, but that's neither here nor there. I admit I have given the matter some thought in the week of sign-ups but don't find A:tR meta too promising here for a number of reasons I shan't go into.

As I was the Merlin figure in said past MR, does that make my claim more interesting to you?  

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Their posts just don't seem like E!TUN's - LG90 comes to mind as their most recent elim game and I don't think their posts that game were even remotely as game-relevant. I've just gone back to the thread to recheck, and none of TUN's posts LG90 D1 were directly related to the game. As in, not even mechanics related. Half were single-line comments about whatever, and the other half were them sharing their opinion on voting D1 in general. So them being proactive about game-related discussion is a good indication, IMO.

Here's the thing though-- in my experience, v!TUN acts closely to e!TUN. The kinds of comments he gives aren't that easy of a tell, they just aren't. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Nerdy said:

Kas

When in doubt, go for someone who other people seem to want to go up against.

...So why did you vote for Kas?

Other off-the-top-of-my-head notes:

• Kas' Dannex case reflects good on him. e!Kas no doubt could have spun that post to solidify that read if he wanted to.
• Aman's voting has been truly bad. Nearly voting him just on that but tbh I should look more into the other parts of his posts. His Wiz one can be fine, I guess. But voting Dannex and me just feels incredibly lazy.
• Stick/TUN e/e is far too obvious to be true, right? xD
• All these Dannex votes don't make me feel better about a train I already don't like.

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @Ookla the Tall, current state of your Wiz thoughts? 

Not much to have thoughts on. He's also probably occupied elsewhere today but nothing in that post makes me want to lean either way, really. There might be something to be said if there's a clear activity difference between v and e Wiz but idk if there is and I kind of doubt it'd be that obvious of a catch.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Tall said:

I kind of have trouble thinking of hidden information that wouldn't help the elim team in some way, tbh. Like unless an IC member openly claims in the doc and verifies it in thread I think there'd be enough uncertainty to not claim at all. I'd advise all IC members to just not talk about identity.

Actually, is there any incentive to talk at all? Like any incentive :P. Just a thought. I hate short docs as much as the next guy but in this case less talking -> less possibilities for the elims to narrow someone down based on speaking patterns -> more random guessing. And random guessing on their part is typically good for us.

Disagreement with both of those things. Like Kas, I don't like TUN's p1 that much. You yourself pointed out that asking whether or not to theorize on IC size is just asking what people think the IC size is. His vote on me was one I could see e!him doing, as well as the unvote, but I hedge on this one cause v!him would also probably be fine voting me there.

I sympathize much with Dannex because I've been where he is :P. Kas-- to no fault of his own-- virtually shut down Dannex's points which I found quite valid, and more or less expected reasoning where he didn't give himself. I say to no fault of his own because that's how Kas talks in thread, and I don't read him elim for it, I just don't think he really treated the Dannex argument fairly early on. Dannex seemed fine to me.

Also like Kas, I'm quite surprised these are the two reads you ended up on. If I'd had to have guessed before reading this post, I would have been wrong on both.

As I was the Merlin figure in said past MR, does that make my claim more interesting to you?  

Here's the thing though-- in my experience, v!TUN acts closely to e!TUN. The kinds of comments he gives aren't that easy of a tell, they just aren't. 

...So why did you vote for Kas?

Other off-the-top-of-my-head notes:

• Kas' Dannex case reflects good on him. e!Kas no doubt could have spun that post to solidify that read if he wanted to.
• Aman's voting has been truly bad. Nearly voting him just on that but tbh I should look more into the other parts of his posts. His Wiz one can be fine, I guess. But voting Dannex and me just feels incredibly lazy.
• Stick/TUN e/e is far too obvious to be true, right? xD
• All these Dannex votes don't make me feel better about a train I already don't like.

Not much to have thoughts on. He's also probably occupied elsewhere today but nothing in that post makes me want to lean either way, really. There might be something to be said if there's a clear activity difference between v and e Wiz but idk if there is and I kind of doubt it'd be that obvious of a catch.

K gonna sleep and on mobile so I'll engage with the rest later but no. As I said, the fact you considered a fakeclaim Jedi gambit to draw out the hidden Village faction and got beaten to the punch is stronger on my mind. I agree with Stick the correct read is NAI but I've been shamelessly using you as bait to solicit thoughts and try to get a sense for how people are thinking.