Quick Fix 63: Simple Rules

[Mat he/him]

Yes, items will be announced on death if the dead person has one.  They disappear with the death.

[Turtle they/them]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So my issue with WGG when I really think it through (hi sorry y'all 4:30AM brain be like that  ) is just this:

• I think in a three or two Elim game, the tent is likely to make an appearance one way or another. Too many potential kills in the game not to offer some protection. So either way, it's not prima facie surprising.
   
• WGG has always been off-meta. Which doesn't say anything about whether it can/can't happen, but the thing to keep in mind is that back when it was prevalent, Lurchers weren't restricted in targeting so there was an actual reason for Elims not re-targeting the WGG target. As Archer said in AG8, the issue with a WGG now is that you have to explain why the Elims didn't swing back to attack a target they know is vulnerable to attack. To me, that does place a bit more of a barrier in place of running one. You'd functionally have to turn it into a potential WBG instead and play on the uncertainty there instead. 

And according to @Matrim's Dice, we'd have known if TUN or Archer dropped with any items. Which means:

Sigh everything in me is screaming not to do this which means this is probably a bad decision but hey Archer you can yell at me for hypocrisy when I'm dead.

I think this is relevant insofar as we now know 1/2 the distro. One one-shot kill, one protect, and three regulars. I don't know what we can draw too strong an inference but that looks fairly roleslite to me. (Watch the other half have another tent, silver dust, and fenweed sap...) 

But it gets weirder. Suppose I keep my V!Ash, V!Xino credences. I certainly am not going to believe E!me because I'm not delusional

If we're postulating Elims, then, by my credences, they're in the second half - the other five players. Where I'm still also postulating fenweed sap, silver dust, and another tent, along with a two or three man Elim team. Not impossible but it feels sort of crowded.

Two man team world? Not sure.

wait so are we assuming xino self protected with the tent? bc any of <wiz, turtle, bookwyrm, jnv, xino> could have used the tent on xino, right?

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Turtle said:

wait so are we assuming xino self protected with the tent? bc any of <wiz, turtle, bookwyrm, jnv, xino> could have used the tent on xino, right?

So, question for you.

Who V!read Xino so strongly they would protect Xino D1 instead of themselves, or envision a NK on Xino? Did you?

Edited to add:

Because suppose you are a V!Lurcher. You have two jobs:

-Protect people highly likely to be Villagers -> why not self-protect D1? Who else V!reads Xino so strongly they would've gone Xino over themselves?

or

-Protect the people most likely to be NKed -> again, why do you see that as being likely to be Xino? Odd call since Xino was blending in.

Much more likely to be a self-protect.

(We're ignoring WGG/WBG world - theoretically possible, but I lean against it.)

Edited November 8, 2022 by Kasimir

[Turtle they/them]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So, question for you.

Who V!read Xino so strongly they would protect Xino D1 instead of themselves, or envision a NK on Xino? Did you?

yeah point. i sort of thought tents couldn’t be used on the person w a tent for a while and that’s where that post was coming from. tbh i wasn’t really thinking abt potential nks (am i claiming not having a knife? sure, whatever, i don’t have a knife Tent not knife lol brain not working rn). 

i think ash did v!read xino at one point? but that doesn’t work so yeah

Edited November 8, 2022 by Turtle
TENT NOT KNIFE GAH

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Turtle said:

i think ash did v!read xino at one point? but that doesn’t work so yeah

Archer did. But flipped without a tent, therefore cannot be him.

[Turtle they/them]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Archer did. But flipped without a tent, therefore cannot be him.

but that tent would have been used up, right? 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Turtle said:

but that tent would have been used up, right? 

Nope.

On 10/29/2022 at 11:20 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Spoiler

• Tent: Each turn, allow any player to use the tent and hide from the Shades. (Protect a single player from being killed each turn). The same player cannot use the tent twice in a row. Does not protect from the execution or Violation.

 

Tents are not single-use items. Having a tent functionally makes a player a Lurcher.

Sort of want to say Turtle resisting the EoD TUN CW is at least consistent with their views on TUN (null+), but I'm not sure if E!Turtle has incentive to switch anyway. But Turtle being so confused at EoD sort of feels genuine to me and I'm trying to work this out because E!Turtle must realise that if the TUN CW doesn't go through, they're the likely CW, as indicated by both my posts and Silho's posts.

Just re-reading the chaos starting from here:

 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

5 minutes ago, Turtle said:

but that tent would have been used up, right? 

I don't think so?

From the rules:

Quote

Tent: Each turn, allow any player to use the tent and hide from the Shades. (Protect a single player from being killed each turn). The same player cannot use the tent twice in a row. Does not protect from the execution or Violation.

 

[Turtle they/them]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Tents are not single-use items. Having a tent functionally makes a player a Lurcher.

oh. i’m silly. oops  

[Kasimir he/him]

Alright, let's do this.

Crude until I can get something else going. As in proper analysis. Sorry. But I at least want to get my thoughts in some semblance of order. This is pre-deep reading of C1. I will try to go back and do it, but I can't right now because I have to clear something else.

<Wiz, Kas, Turtle, Bookwyrm, Ash, JNV, Silho, Xino>

Taking myself out:

<Wiz, Kas, Turtle, Bookwyrm, Ash, JNV, Silho, Xino>

 

Very, very crude tiers:

+: <Wiz, Turtle, Ash, Xino, JNV>
?: <Bookwyrm>
-: <Silho>

Bookwyrm has pressure, should probably unvote and go Silho, I'll go frown over this in the morning again as I'm scarred from the LG90 Silho tunnel.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

-: <Silho>

Smh my head

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Smh my head

As you pointed out, I tend to/seem to just get negative vibes off you a lot.

But I'm currently also thinking/working strictly in terms of taking out everyone I feel I have some, any small form of V!read on and working from there.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

As you pointed out, I tend to/seem to just get negative vibes off you a lot.

But I'm currently also thinking/working strictly in terms of taking out everyone I feel I have some, any small form of V!read on and working from there.

Maybe I should pretend to be an evil person pretending to be good

Then you'd stop suspecting me lol

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Maybe I should pretend to be an evil person pretending to be good

Then you'd stop suspecting me lol

IDK. We managed just fine in LG89... .__. 

[Turtle they/them]

25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Alright, let's do this.

Crude until I can get something else going. As in proper analysis. Sorry. But I at least want to get my thoughts in some semblance of order. This is pre-deep reading of C1. I will try to go back and do it, but I can't right now because I have to clear something else.

<Wiz, Kas, Turtle, Bookwyrm, Ash, JNV, Silho, Xino>

Taking myself out:

<Wiz, Kas, Turtle, Bookwyrm, Ash, JNV, Silho, Xino>

 

Very, very crude tiers:

+: <Wiz, Turtle, Ash, Xino, JNV>
?: <Bookwyrm>
-: <Silho>

Bookwyrm has pressure, should probably unvote and go Silho, I'll go frown over this in the morning again as I'm scarred from the LG90 Silho tunnel.

what does the italics for jnv mean? is that like,,, conditional?

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

Okay, I'm apparently famous for retaliation votes because of a certain Day 1 in LG: 90.

And of the two people who are currently voting for me, the most suspicious is Silhouette.

To be honest, I have legitimate suspicions on Sil anyway. While their vote, as far as I can tell, don't warrant too much suspicion, there's something about their general tone. They said last cycle here:

Quote

Here's a rule of thumb: if you find yourself not liking my tone, I'm V!Silho. If I'm feeling really vil to you but my actions seem off, I'm E!Silho. Cause it's actually been true every game so far I think :P.

Silhouette's posts have actually seemed pretty Vil to me, but like the example they gave above, there's something...off about them. It seems to me like they're deflecting suspicion.

If you want to respond to this, @Shining Silhouette (man, I can never spell Shining right on my first try), then please do. This is just based on my current understanding of the game, and will likely change it in the future.

And...I should probably go analyze other people a little more deeply...

Edited November 8, 2022 by The Bookwyrm
Sometimes I somehow have an extra empty line at the bottom of my post and I have to go back and delete it for my personal sanity.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Turtle said:

what does the italics for jnv mean? is that like,,, conditional?

Hard to get much of a read off a single post. So it reflects uncertainty. JNV dipped and didn't come back. I am only slightly comfortable with that green off the basis of their behaviour. They felt disengaged in a way I wasn't sure if E!JNV would be so ready to be. But suppose I commit to V!Shining — JNV is one of the places I'd revise my reads. 

My problem with E!you just boils down to the fact I don't think E!you is as genuinely confused about the sudden TUN train. I also think E!you would be more aware that you are next and be less vocal about TUN or potentially more willing to self-pres there given the high pressure. 

My problem with E!Silho is that if I'm theorising a Bookwyrm-Silho team, then Silho is willing to vote Bookwyrm which doesn't feel right for this team. I also think putting a new player on a two man Elim team can be very rough if their partner dies and Mat would have selected between multiple distros so that can be slightly avoided. Maybe it's too meta an assumption but there you go. 

I kind of feel that E!Silho shouldn't be so ready or willing to jump for a last minute Archer saving train or swap to TUN/you. Maybe, if he scented an Archer/me ML off it? I am not sure it feels right though. 

Worth noting that Ash dragged his feet on train swapping and Turtle expressed qualms. Think it is worth disambiguating response types to see if we can ID any Village patterns. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

39 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

While their vote, as far as I can tell, don't warrant too much suspicion, there's something about their general tone.

Smh once more

I gotta fix my storming tone apparently

It's okay I mostly voted you because you seemed squeamish about being voted on when Ash voted you and wanted to see if you'd say anything more

Bookwyrm

now for the famous retaliation unvote??

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

IDK. We managed just fine in LG89... .__. 

Proof we can do so here!

Edited November 8, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

2 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Bookwyrm

now for the famous retaliation unvote??

Okay....fine....Silhouette

My suspicions have not been completely assuaged, but that's enough for now.

Hm....Let me think a little more before I vote again.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

12 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Okay....fine....Silhouette

My suspicions have not been completely assuaged, but that's enough for now.

Hm....Let me think a little more before I vote again.

Lol did not expect that

Yeah I'm with you I gotta think

[Turtle they/them]

The Wandering Wizard - null+

Kasimir - v

The Bookwyrm - null-

Ashbringer - null+

JNV - null

Shining Silhouette- null-

xinoehp512 - null

————

i can’t figure out??? formatting???? i’m pasting from my notes doc and idk how to make it not do a break between each line smh

anyways this is where i’m at rn oh no i got ninja’d

edit: would be ok voting in <bookwyrm jnv shining xino> but i’m hesitant to vote jnv without them posting more. don’t super want to vote anyone else rn but that’s subject to change

Edited November 9, 2022 by Turtle

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

3 minutes ago, Turtle said:

i’m pasting from my notes doc

Read this as "i'm pasting from the elim doc" and was like :00000

[Turtle they/them]

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

Read this as "i'm pasting from the elim doc" and was like :00000

…why would i put my reads in the elim doc???

lmao that would be a rlly silly elim slip

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Turtle said:

…why would i put my reads in the elim doc???

lmao that would be a rlly silly elim slip

you think I know??

lol

[Turtle they/them]

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

you think I know??

lol

“hey guys here’s my reads list what do yall think?”

“uhm, turtle, we are elims, we know everyone’s alignment”

“riiiiight”

is how that conversation would go lmao