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3 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

More likely scan target (due to vote and thread stuff) - [Gorilla, Chameleon, Albatross, Flamingo?]

Digging the question mark by my name lol. Anyway, of these I say scan Alb, because the loss of a v!thug is concerning.

(You're welcome to scan me, Seeker, if that's what you think is best).

Realizing that trying to discuss who to scan in thread makes it likely for the elims to try and smoke potential scan targets. Hooray. Seeker, just scan who you want sdfsdfkjsdhf.

Edited by Onyx Flamingo
sent too early
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Just now, Onyx Flamingo said:

Digging the question mark by my name lol. Anyway, of these I say scan Alb, because the loss of a v!thug is concerning.

Nono lol that was me predicting who was likely to be Smoked ahead in preference to Meerkat, and the question mark is because I don't think anyone would have thought to scan you because like only me and... I think Falcon? were suspicious of you last cycle, so you'd prooooobably not be Smoked ahead of Salmon [hehe Smoked Salmon :P] but it was in doubt, hence the question mark :P

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34 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Nono lol that was me predicting who was likely to be Smoked ahead in preference to Meerkat, and the question mark is because I don't think anyone would have thought to scan you because like only me and... I think Falcon? were suspicious of you last cycle, so you'd prooooobably not be Smoked ahead of Salmon [hehe Smoked Salmon :P] but it was in doubt, hence the question mark :P

I MISREAD

It's 1:30am i should go to bed

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Depending on the elim team composition, I would not put it past them to use an e!tineye to just straight up lie in that message in order to pull off a bus. I think most of us are aware of Meerkat’s disposition toward being an elim, so it’s not unreasonable to speculate that they might’ve volunteered for a bus. If this is the case, it’s possible that this has been the elim game plan from the start, meaning that every single post that meerkat has made has been designed to throw us off. That does require meticulous planning though. I think that after we exe Meerkat we should go into the next cycle analyzing Meerkat’s posts assuming that this was not in fact a bus, and depending on whether that assumption leads us to more elims, we can either discard it and entertain the bus idea for a bit or continue with it if it seems to be getting us elims. 

edit: note to self, look closer at Alb. Meerkat defended them both in-thread and in PMs

Edited by Chartreuse Penguin
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My top (and only firm) village read is an elim??? Salmon, how could you :(

That said, I always respect a good ole' openwolfing. Enjoy your time while it lasts, my friend :)

The octo kill also really confuses me. I actually like it as a v!Coinshot kill (I wish they hit Saffron N1 instead of Magenta for this exact reason) so we could have executed elsewhere, but better late than never. The fact yesterday was a V/V gives important context, so I'll need to go back and review when I'm more emotionally stable. The really interesting / strange / confusing thing is why the ELIMS would kill the counter wagon too.

I feel like we're being toyed with in more ways than one.

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  • A Tineye who is killed at Night will still have their message appear in the writeup at the start of the next Day (along with their dead body).

It’s possible that Scarlet Octopus was the tineye that sent today’s message. I guess that could maybe explain why the elims targeted them last night? One of the elims might’ve caught wind of the seeker results through PMs and tried to kill Octopus before they could post this message. This is assuming the none of the elims read the above quoted rules clarification which is um unlikely so idk. Maybe they thought Octopus would wait a cycle before posting the message but idk why they’d go off that assumption 

 

edit:

or maybe they just wanted to kill the seeker’s only trusted connection to the thread 

Edited by Chartreuse Penguin
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My first thought past Meerkat is that I don’t like Pearl, specifically because of Meerkat’s response to my suggestion of what happened. Which is kinda weird, because the fact Meerkat was the one to push against voting for Pearl means I wasn’t right in the first place. But I think that fits with Meerkat’s response, since he knew that the elims didn’t ignore the Pearl train. It doesn’t guarantee Pearl is evil, since Meerkat’s response could just come from a place of knowing I’m wrong and trying to fake being villagery. As for the rest, well, at least we have a fair amount of material to sift through.

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13 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

My first thought past Meerkat is that I don’t like Pearl, specifically because of Meerkat’s response to my suggestion of what happened. Which is kinda weird, because the fact Meerkat was the one to push against voting for Pearl means I wasn’t right in the first place. But I think that fits with Meerkat’s response, since he knew that the elims didn’t ignore the Pearl train. It doesn’t guarantee Pearl is evil, since Meerkat’s response could just come from a place of knowing I’m wrong and trying to fake being villagery. As for the rest, well, at least we have a fair amount of material to sift through.

I'll be honest, I think I'm starting not to like Cham as much now. Cham's responses are just a bit off.

Haven't decided where I stand on you.

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7 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I think Falcon is saying that they think Coral swan is an elim as well and it's some sort of weird ruse on they and Meerkat's part to try to make Coral seem village as being the one Meerkat slipped to.

Unless I'm massively misunderstanding things.

That is what Falcon is saying

7 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

stop :P 

if you thought ocho was a thug you'd avoid hitting them + they just survived an elimination, there'd be chance they'd be up for it again, so no the second kill wasn't from your end :P

It was, see one of El's tags. (Chance this is a joke from your end, in that case ignore this :P)

7 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

You're also missing one possibility here. Spiked Tineye who put in the NK. Messages aren't very useful for the Spiked and while Villagers don't often recall this, and thus it improves my read of you, Spiked have to forgo their metal action (if they have one) if they put in the Night Kill.

I guess I could see a Tineye also choosing not to put in a message or forgetting. A number of people tend to find Tineye messages useless.

I think you can show them this game for posterity :|

xD stop being helpful it's distracting

7 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I hate to agree with Meerkat right now, but this is actually accurate. We can all agree an exe on them this turn is best, but we need to use this time to analyze elsewhere, create reads, try to figure out what else is happening. 

Definitely agree that this information about Meerkat does not look good on Chameleon. Would be willing to go for that exe next turn (or maybe a coinshot tonight?). Might also be worth another look at Albatross and Flamingo, like Scorpion pointed out. Especially with a village thug flipping already. More than one isn't unheard of, but I wouldn't argue with a scan, maybe? (See prior post about not exing just because of survival).

I definitely need to recheck this and will certainly need to reread the thread with this new perspective but my initial reaction was thinking this reflected positively on Chameleon. Since just about everyone had the opposite thought I'm probably wrong here.

6 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I, for one, believe Meerkat here

In what? They are openwolfing, so I believe them too? :P 

6 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I have been playing like lassie all game and we all know how that worked for Shawn. I haven't thrown out a single bizarre theory yet. This needs to change, and soon. 

Me being evil works just fine :P.

Praise the Ja!

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1 minute ago, Coral Swan said:

xD stop being helpful it's distracting

I want the Village to win this. Is that so wrong? Will you scorn contribution just because you think I can't be trusted?

And to think I liked you :(

1 minute ago, Coral Swan said:

Me being evil works just fine :P.

I agree. I'm not fully certain about this but I think you're Village. I suppose that's not very helpful coming from me, but reports of Elim omniscence have been...exaggerated.

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So, cards on the table time. I am not Spiked. I am a Village Tineye, and I sent in the message condemning myself as a Spiked Regular. I then acted the aghast, panicking Elim who got rattled and accidentally outed myself in the thread. I hadn't prepared to 'elim slip' to Coral Swan - my plan was to do that in the thread, but Coral Swan's post presented such a good opportunity that when I saw it, I knew I had to capitalise on it. It also gave me a chance to feel Swan out more extensively, to see if Swan was an Elim trying to figure out what the bloody blazes I thought I was doing, or a genuinely confused Villager.

I was intending to wait for the 24 hour mark to post this, but the thread death in my view is concerning - I was not trolling when I pointed out that discussion needed to happen and fixating on my 'scan' wasn't going to cut it. So I guess here I go ahead of schedule.

I'm going to divide this post into sections that should address most concerns. I am prepared to answer questions about my research methods.

I. Kel, What The Hell?

Spoiler

So, when I drew Village Tineye, I had prepared myself to send in a themed series across the Nights I was alive. The first message was titled 'BulleTin Board', with the idea that Kellehrt would set up a BulleTin board people would pass messages to. Except the 'messages' would be different scam typologies with different MOs - delivery scams, inheritance scams, blessing scams, lucky draw scams... I thought the idea that the BulleTin board would be filled with shady messages was too hilarious to pass up.

It's a well-known fact that I do have a trollish streak. I was telling El and Fifth off-handedly in my GM PM that I thought it'd be hilarious if I sent in a message saying Player X was a Spiked. The dead doc would probably flip, the spec doc would freak, and the player would freak. Anyway, I dismissed it - I was a troll but that was counterproductive. Still, the idea remained with me and I found myself considering it again after Iguana's mislynch.

Suppose I passed myself off as a Spiked. What could be hoped to be gained from it?

A. Information - I felt that the reactions of players to this revelation could be telling. I was in PMs with a decent number of players who seemed to trust me, meaning I could sound off on their reaction to try to get a better read on them. In my view, Alb's response came too swiftly to be anything but a Villager's - I think an Elim is more likely to have panicked and retreated to their doc in confused.

B. Thread information - I felt that the behaviour of players could be telling too. Elims might not be so eager to get on this train, knowing the result. Swan's unwitting involvement changed that - I didn't know what would happen if Swan was Elim but I figured that Village Swan would make an excellent scapegoat for when I flipped Village.

C. Chaos - Really, my plan was to hit the game with a very big stick and to watch what shaked out. With active players who - unlike me - were capable of reading players and doing ISO analysis, Falcon, Ostrich, Vulture, Swan, Hyena, Axolotl, Beagle and Scorpion - it seemed to me vanishingly unlikely they could be all Evil.

And if even one of them were Village, even if I died for it - perhaps they could glean enough information from the events of the cycle and from my PMs to make my sacrifice worthwhile.

I've never pretended to be anything more than an average player in SE with a decent amount of experience. LG82, my last game, was a personal worst, in which I repeatedly defended the wrong players and drew the wrong conclusions. But a bluff like this seemed appealing - it was something I could reasonably try to pull off, and I could feed information to players who thrived on it.

Finally, I was in a unique position to pull it off. I was a Tineye, meaning I could send in the message implicating myself. I was a consensus trust with PMs with a number of players, meaning I had a decent chance of sounding them out and collecting decent reactions. I also have a history of performing well in information-sharing as a Tineye (QF6).

For what it's worth, I aim to commit to summarising and commenting on every single PM interaction from the time of my gambit to the time of the reveal. While I cannot break the rule on copying and pasting PMs, I think the information will be useful enough, especially in light of my flip (if so required.) 

II. The Plan

Spoiler

I asked myself several questions. Was this something that had the potential to yield enough information that it was worthwhile? I decided with some hesitation that if I did it right, the answer was yes. Was this worth my life, if it came down to it? Absolutely. I was just a Village Tineye, and I'm not a particularly crucial player to any Village game. Most importantly, could I sell it?

There, I hesitated. It had to be fundamentally plausible, and I couldn't for the life of me see how I could authentically sell being enough of a moron to post in the thread agreeing to an anonymous message that I was Spiked! 

Eventually, I thought I found several emotional notes that could make it seem more palatable: first, I would claim to have been tired, to have derped and made a mistake. I had to channel the exhaution I felt into my posting. But that was okay - I had been working late and in poor health. That was to be expected. Second, I would be defeated, resigned, and embarrassed. I would be an Elim who had lost his nerve, had been caught out, and then saw no good way to fight the inevitable and so threw in the towel.

Even then, I had expected it to be touch-and-go. Swan's post was a godsend - I saw it and told El and Fifth I had a bad feeling about rollover, and then realised it could lend a bit more plausibility to why I had panicked. Because I had been primed by Swan's post, because I had happened to add 'Praise the Ja!' to all my messages for flavour as graffiti (remember, I had envisioned actual notes on a physical notice boad in Tyrian Falls!)

Then, there were the points of logical failure. The only time the supposed Seeker could have scanned me was N1. How did the Seeker then get the information to the Tineye in time for the write-up? Why not reveal it the standard way - on D3, via a trusted N2 scan intermediary, after a decent amount of time into the lynch? Why use this long-winded method of using a Tineye message? But I was a lone Tineye.

Moreover, I could and should rightfully have fought an anonymous message of unknown provenance, that might or might not have come from an actual Seeker, and even then, could've been an Evil Seeker.

My thoughts were: people are more willing to accept something that 'feels' real. If I projected enough of the correct emotions, people would overlook the absurdity because who the bloody hell in their right mind as a Villager would claim Elim? (Me apparently.) People would attribute it to 'weird stuff happens', and 'bad mistakes.' And maybe it would be worth looking at people who didn't, who argued this was implausible - maybe they were Elims looking to distance themselves from what was going to be a bad lynch.

I cannot emphasise how much Swan's post was an unasked for gift. I bought so much more plausibility just because I could ambush Swan and demand to know how Swan had found out I was Evil (a reasonable error if I was indeed a spooked Elim who believed Swan (Praise the Ja!) was onto me), and then act stunned and have a mini-breakdown in the PM when Swan said that (no drek) it wasn't him.

So my basic gameplan:

1. plant the message-> 2. Insert authentication -> 3. Feign utter panic and defeat and a comedy of errors -> 4. Shift from resigned Elim mode into tired, resigned, trolling Elim mode -> 5. At the 24 hour mark, reveal what had happened -> 6. Collect all the information I had and post it in thread -> 7. Embrace death if need be.

III. How Do We Know You're A Tineye Though?

Spoiler

Several main points:

First, a hell of a lot of players from this game have PMed me asking me if I'm a particular player. I'd like to point out that the player in question has a history of creating coded picture messages as a Tineye (LG79, QF6 - code diagram), and even broadsheet write-ups accepting submitted player contributions in MR51. In other words, if you have a decent credence that I am him, you should have a decent credence that the images were made by me - it's perfectly within my MO.

Second, as that player did in LG79, I created a means of authenticating that I was the Tineye sending the messages in question by embedding or copying codes or small steganography tricks into the Tineye messages. In this case, my 'secret' was the round dots on the BulleTin messages:

unknown.png

unknown.png

The blue arrows mark the tells I embedded into the image. For the D2 message (submitted N1), I used a blue dot with hex code (#a1c5c5) - this one is a bit more complicated and you may have to fish around with the Eyedropper Tool because I set opacity to 50% when producing the dot so some of the clustering pixels have different colour values. I then embedded the hex code in the last lines of my N1 RP:

Quote

and did it matter, was it presumption? - a is first letter of the first word of the third-last paragraph [=a1]

derision sometimes and it cut like the blade of the scythe through the harvest in the golden light of the afternoon because who was he to question and who was he that the words of Warmmha would have reached him - c is first letter of the fifth word of the second-last paragraph [=c5]

you are all such children, said Warmmha with a terrible sadness and staring at the broken body of Riggs, seeing it again in his mind in the bloody light of dusk, Kellehrt prayed that God would speed Riggs on his way and give him peace and light - c is first letter of the fifth word of the last paragraph [=c5]

People don't really read RP so I find RP an excellent avenue for concealing codes. Opal Lion did something similar in LG79 by using Caesar ciphers cribbed from fragments of his previous RP in SE games embedded in his current RP. I wasn't in the mood to get that complicated.

Similarly, the pink-grey in the second image has the hexcode (#d1b4c2) - this time I set the opacity to 100% so hunting for the pixel with the eyedropper tool would be much easier. The relevant chunk of RP is:

Quote

did you presume, did you dare presume to know the way the future was woven into warp and weft of the present silken threads twining here and parting there - d is first letter of the first word of the third-last paragraph [=d1]

futile to try but he had to, for the sake of the grass and the worm and the red sun hanging sullenly in the sky and for the tears and the hatred and the way she’d stumbled into his forge terrified and he couldn’t stand there and do nothing sometimes you had to try to salvage the tapestry - b is first letter of the fourth word of the second-last paragraph [=b4]

you can’t save everybody, says Wark, and it’s not your job to try - c is first letter of the second word of the last paragraph [=c2]

As it was, I made a mistake and forgot to include the last three paragraphs so I had to edit them in with a note.

I also used colour burn to add the words 'henry was murdered' as flavour graffiti to the second image, and then faded out the opacity so it didn't distract. I used 'k' in the same colour just for it to pop since I was being referred to by a number of players as 'Kas' and I am kel.

Does this really address concerns that I'm not a Tineye? Well, yes and no. If I'm Village, then I absolutely have to be a Tineye since I'm this familiar with the code and the creation process. I'd argue my history is also strongly suggestive that I crafted these myself. If I'm Elim, one might argue I submitted them to a teammate. I'd just point out that's fairly tendentious as the whole reason this even became a topic in the first place is the fact I submitted this message as part of a wild gambit.

I like making awesome art :P 

IV. Why Think I'm Telling The Truth?

Spoiler
  • The fact the codes were embedded in RP I posted as far back as N1 demonstrates that this can't be a last ditch attempt to salvage a bad Elim claim. I usually embed clandestine means of authenticating my messages as a Tineye specifically for such eventualities.
     
  • As a number of you pointed out, this was too easy. I could have reasonably fought an anonymous message and probably made a good showing of it, given the thread. Instead, I collapsed and 'revealed' my alignment.
     
  • This isn't how a typical Seeker scan works. There's no reason not to get your N2 intermediary to come forth and damn me instead of doing it via a Tineye message. The chronology also doesn't check out - if you're scanning me N1, how is it your Tineye message can be sent N2?
     
  • On D1, I mentioned that I had light Village cred in Scorp for phishing me with a message that I was an Elim Soother or Smoker. It seems strange that I fended Scorp off so easily only to collapse at the sight of a Tineye message of unknown provenance.
     
  • I am, as is apparent, a returning player. I have enough games under my belt to recognise that alignment claiming in thread is an utter disaster for your team as an Elim and to not do it. I also have enough games under my belt to recognise that the correct place to panic about a scan is in the Elim doc, and not on a thread. (See: my first game, LG5.)
     
  • I'd argue that as a consensus Village read, if I were Evil, I don't gain anything from this gambit. I get myself potentially Coinshot or lynched, and we have to assume I'll suffer a loss of trust no matter what. As a prominent player in the thread, my team would be sacrificing a valuable asset for not much apparent gain - we haven't found a single Spiked yet and it seems tendentious to assume we are this close to doing it.
     
  • This resolves the question nicely for players who commented about my Elim game apparently being indistinguishable from my Village game: it isn't and I haven't been lying to you about that point, because I'm not Evil, and therefore have been playing for Team Village throughout this whole game save for having to act the villain during the first half of D3 to sell this gambit.
     
  • I point out that while I don't like being Evil, enough that players have commented about it, I don't gamethrow either. And I'm not a moron.
     
  • This is specifically directed at Falcon - you haven't shared your findings from your Coinshot stunt with the thread. If you want to damn me for my gambit, first look at how forthcoming I'm being about everything as compared to what you're doing.

V. Thoughts and Analysis (Based off Thread, By And Large)

Spoiler
  • Prefacing with the clarification I don't do reads well but this damn Village is big enough that you ISO people better make good use of this. Make what I did count for something.
     
  • Moderate Village read on Albatross. The vote came in far too fast and immediately after my first 'confession.' My view is that an Eliminator would have hesitated, trying to understand what the hell was happening, because no sane Villager confesses to being Evil, and would probably take it to the doc. 
     
  • Moderate Village read on Swan. I may revise this as I go over and prepare the conversation logs but Swan seemed genuinely baffled and trying to wrap his head around mine being Evil, and Swan was way too entertained at the idea that a random 'Praise the Ja!' message had caused me to reveal myself.
     
  • Unsure, leaning sus on Beagle. Beagle's hesitation or pushback could be a sensible Villager with a strong read on me, or could be an Elim knowing that I am a Villager and worried that this situation is a trap. I am hesitant about Beagle after the Ocho push on D2, which with the Iguana push, looks like a means of taking the fire away from Flamingo.
     
  • Unsure on Falcon. Claiming that she knew all along is bold as an Elim when she's going to eat her words hard after I get lynched. But maybe that's the point. Also pushing back against the narrative by recognising the holes in the situation, which is where I'd say might be a sensible Villager, or an Elim trying to get credit when the train goes wrong. I'd lean light Village/null+ because I think that claim she knew all along is too bold.
     
  • Yet at the same time, in my view, Falcon and Ostrich look bad for pushing the gambit and Swan line - I feel that Elims who want to take advantage of the gifted lynch will either sit back and let the Village do it and blend into the crowd, or they will do it and then take the gift Swan lynch, on the assumption Swan is Village (current light to moderate read.) That being said, if I have high Flamingo Evil credences, I'm required to look better on Falcon and Ostrich. Sigh. Revisit and revise.
     
  • Cham's hesitation could be signalling an Elim who wants to gain credit for slowing down a bad train. Cham's interactions felt genuine but there were oddities. Assess further.
     
  • Perfunctory 'kill the Thug' from Flamingo and mention of Seeking seems incredibly naive in a game with no sign of an existing Seeker so far. Possibly opportunistic.
     
  • Penguin suggesting this is a bus gives me mixed feelings - the Elim playbook won't be to make such claims because it was already a consensus lynch anyway, and it'd go bad after that. I regard the Swan claim as more high-octane because it primes Swan for a mislynch after me to take the blame. Hopefully I've cut that line of argument in its tracks. On the other hand, it's as though Penguin wants to set the stage to role-lynch Tineyes. Yeah, how about no, 'cause that worked so well for AG2.
     
  • Gorilla checked out the thread but didn't interact. Potentially worrisome sign - Elim declining to get involved?
     
  • I'd look very hard at players over-obsessing about the Seekers, because the Elims know there was no Seeker, so that might be another dead end. People pushing to analyse me and to forget about D2 and previous flips could also be taking advantage of the chaos to derail Village discussion.
     
  • PM reads pending: Ostrich, Falcon, Penguin, Axolotl, Vulture, Hyena, Scorpion, Cham, Swan

VI. Conclusion

Spoiler

In summation, I made the plan, and I carried it out. I intend to upload the PM summaries shortly after this post, and before rollover. I've been slowly summarising each message so if you see me hanging out in your PM, this is why. 

I don't really have much of a reputation as a gambit player, so I think that helps. People expect this sort of stuff from Falcon. Less so from me.

I would prefer to get to hang around and do more analysis, but I understand if I need to die in order to flip so that people feel better about the information I have/me. If I hadn't accepted this as a potential consequence, I wouldn't have gone with the gambit in the first place. I would absolutely recommend taking me out by Coinshot kill if necessary - wasting the lynch is absolutely a very bad move and even if you think the Elim team has a Lurcher, a Lurcher can't protect the same target twice in a row.

I dedicate this kasyana gambit to Maili, who I see hanging around in the thread sometimes. You were the Evil Tineye who doomed Fallion's Tears, and I'm apparently your gambit polar opposite now >> Hopefully I've helped, rather than brought doom once again to Tyrian Falls.

Of course, you might say, what the hell is going on, Kas is notoriously anti-gambit.

This is true. But here and now I am not Kas.

im kel =)

If you lynch me, you lynch me. I'm cool with that. I'll be back to answer questions after I get some sleep.

And apologies to Swan for implicating you after my 'panic'. I hope I have made it sufficiently clear that this was on me and Swan should not be gone after until after I flip, at which point, you have other things to re-assess.

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34 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Excuse me while I go lie down

^^^^^^^^ xD

46 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

And apologies to Swan for implicating you after my 'panic'. I hope I have made it sufficiently clear that this was on me and Swan should not be gone after until after I flip, at which point, you have other things to re-assess.

It’s cool. I think it’s amazing my random PtJ helped with this even if it was not in the way I first assumed it did… *applause*

Praise the Ja!

Edit: Meerkat. Forgot to do that :P. @Elbereth

Praise the Ja!

Edited by Coral Swan
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