Long Game 54: Cognitive Diversions

[TheMightyLopen]

Well darn. I guess that explains why Rath didn't want to roleswap with Fifth.  Sorry about that Rath. What makes me really uncomfortable about that lynch is that basically all of the high profile players voted as a group, as me, Fifth, Devotary, and Sart are decent conversion targets in my opinion. I point this out because I feel like there has to be a convert in there somewhere. As I'm actually still reading Sart as village, I'm looking at Devotary and Fifth right now. This may sound a little conspiracy theory-ish, but my current thought is that Fura is the convert and that Ark is also an elim. I was looking back at the past Day, and Fura and Ark rarely seem to have any sort of back and forth. For one, Fura never says anything about Ark's reveal that he burned Snipexe even though earlier he'd mentioned he was suspicious of whoever had burned Snip. Then, Ark votes on me following Sart's vote, and Fura heavily defends me. Ark never really responds to either my posts or Fura's, seemingly content to just sit on his vote of me, with no further response. Fura only mentions that at least Ark's vote on me had some reasoning behind it rather than Sart's, which is a defense of Ark in a way(if I was lynched, I think Sart would have taken the larger portion of blame for it, and this defense might help Ark's case a bit). Now, Ark is suggesting going after Lumgol instead of me, his previous target, with no explanation. I believe this may be because Fura started casting suspicion on Lumgol at the end of last Turn, and Ark is sort of following Fura's lead. Oh right, which brings me back to Ark's reveal that he Burned Snip. I've been thinking about that and have a nagging feeling it was planned to draw attention away from Ark. I think that the elims may have felt Ark had too much pressure on him, and suggested he reveal he'd Burned Snip as a solution. If so, it worked, as both me and Devotary both stated we felt it was a village move. I think the reason Fura didn't mention it was because he wanted to see the village's reaction to the reveal first so he could decide whether to go after Ark for that or not. Another reason I'm wary of Fura is for his strong defense of me. While I appreciate it, I can't help but feel like he's trying to get on my good side. I don't think his opinion is really feigned, as my current theory is that he was converted, so I think he did read my first post as strongly village when he was village, but I think he's playing that read up to gain my trust.

Anyways, I know that's kind of a lot and not very well put together, but it's very late and I think it gets my point across good enough.  With that, I'm off for the night.

[Steeldancer]

Less than 10 hours to submit actions and post. 

[+Ark1002]

5 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Well darn. I guess that explains why Rath didn't want to roleswap with Fifth.  Sorry about that Rath. What makes me really uncomfortable about that lynch is that basically all of the high profile players voted as a group, as me, Fifth, Devotary, and Sart are decent conversion targets in my opinion. I point this out because I feel like there has to be a convert in there somewhere. As I'm actually still reading Sart as village, I'm looking at Devotary and Fifth right now. This may sound a little conspiracy theory-ish, but my current thought is that Fura is the convert and that Ark is also an elim. I was looking back at the past Day, and Fura and Ark rarely seem to have any sort of back and forth. For one, Fura never says anything about Ark's reveal that he burned Snipexe even though earlier he'd mentioned he was suspicious of whoever had burned Snip. Then, Ark votes on me following Sart's vote, and Fura heavily defends me. Ark never really responds to either my posts or Fura's, seemingly content to just sit on his vote of me, with no further response. Fura only mentions that at least Ark's vote on me had some reasoning behind it rather than Sart's, which is a defense of Ark in a way(if I was lynched, I think Sart would have taken the larger portion of blame for it, and this defense might help Ark's case a bit). Now, Ark is suggesting going after Lumgol instead of me, his previous target, with no explanation. I believe this may be because Fura started casting suspicion on Lumgol at the end of last Turn, and Ark is sort of following Fura's lead. Oh right, which brings me back to Ark's reveal that he Burned Snip. I've been thinking about that and have a nagging feeling it was planned to draw attention away from Ark. I think that the elims may have felt Ark had too much pressure on him, and suggested he reveal he'd Burned Snip as a solution. If so, it worked, as both me and Devotary both stated we felt it was a village move. I think the reason Fura didn't mention it was because he wanted to see the village's reaction to the reveal first so he could decide whether to go after Ark for that or not. Another reason I'm wary of Fura is for his strong defense of me. While I appreciate it, I can't help but feel like he's trying to get on my good side. I don't think his opinion is really feigned, as my current theory is that he was converted, so I think he did read my first post as strongly village when he was village, but I think he's playing that read up to gain my trust.

Anyways, I know that's kind of a lot and not very well put together, but it's very late and I think it gets my point across good enough.  With that, I'm off for the night.

Very... rant-y.

And crazy.

[Rathmaskal]

So, it's fairly likely the elims will kill me tonight (never want to leave a confirmed villager alive, right?), so I'm not sure how much more use I'll be, but if they do leave me alive for the day cycle, at least we'll be able to focus accordingly.  (That's also why I didn't want the vote to be close.  I wasn't sure if I wanted to role claim if I wasn't lynched, but since I was, it was definitely the best decision)

Also, for those of you who read the rules, obviously since I was able to refill stormlight, I am bonded and can not help bond anyone else.

[Snipexe]

Sorry about my lack of activity towards the end of last cycle. 

I think that the way the OoA breaks down means I used my stormlight to heal and then it was refueled. Thanks Rath, like seriously. I'm going to opening pms tonight, though the elims will likely either attack or role block me, so I would appreciate some protection if possible.

[Steeldancer]

The night will end on time, at 7. The new day might take a little longer than normal to put up. I don’t have Mailliw around to help me with the spreadsheet and I don’t know how long I’ll be staying at my grandparents house tonight. I’ll do my best to get it up as soon as possible, and have everything be accurate. If I miss something tonight, please let me know. 

[+Ark1002]

S'all good.

[Steeldancer]

25 minutes until rollover. Get your actions in, use up all that stormlight before the RNG steals it all away lol

[TheMightyLopen]

5 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

Very... rant-y.

And crazy.

Haha, harsh, but probably fair. I have a habit of coming up with these sorts of theories. Your reaction, and the fact that these types of theories aren't ever right, make me inclined to go back to my original thought that your reveal means you're more likely village.

To be clear though, I'm still wary of Fura.

[Steeldancer]

The cycle is over. I need to drive home but once I get home I’ll get on top of rollover. Gimme an hour and a half max. 

[Steeldancer]

Update: I'm home, and busy attempting to figure out the spreadsheet. It's confusing to me lol. Day will come at some point, I promise. 

[Steeldancer]

Day 4- Shady Confusion
Cadaci flew through the air with his full Radiant. His radiant had bonded him long before any attack on Celebrant. And with gravitation, they ruled the skies. 
That didn't last very long, as a dark streak came at them. Another radiant?
He never really was exactly saw what it was, as it attacked both him and his Radiant with a deadly shardblade. His vision went black. Death wasn't fun. 
Elsewhere in the city, Nightshade attempted to dodge fire that was flying all over the place. Had a dustbringer actually gone insane and started throwing fire everywhere? He eventually got pinned down by a fire blast and was burnt. 
Finally, a cryptic decided to be a messenger of messages. And all breather a sigh of relief, as all prepared to reveal all their dark secrets to everyone who asked them for them. 
______
CadCom was killed! They were a Skybreaker Highspren!
Ark was Burnt! Lumgol is still Burnt!
PM'S ARE NOW OPEN. MAKE SURE TO INCLUDE ME AND MAILLIW IN ALL PMS. 
The turn will end at 7PM EDT, 4/29/19. Here are the rules. 

Spoiler

1. Furamirionind
2. Lumgol (Hjalar the Lightspren)
3. Elandera Lightweaver Cryptic
4. Randuir (Alabaster the Inkspren) Cultivationspren
5. Xinoehp
6. Rathmaskal
7. Snipexe
8. Ark1002 (Nightshade)
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Meladian the Lightspren)
10. Levitaph 
11. Shqueeves
12. Fifth Scholar (Rysca) Windrunner Honorspren
13. Coop772 Lightspren
14. TheMightyLopen (Lymelis)
15. Cadmium Compounder Skybreaker Highspren
16. Dr. Dapper (Ji)
17. Sart (Sartras)

 

Edited April 28, 2019 by Steeldancer

[+Ark1002]

Well darn

[Snipexe]

1 hour ago, Ark1002 said:

Well darn

Heh, now you know how it feels.

Sidenote: I would be willing to consider the possibility that an Elim!Ark burned himself as so to avoid suspicion.

[+Ark1002]

Just now, Snipexe said:

Sidenote: I would be willing to consider the possibility that an Elim!Ark burned himself as so to avoid suspicion.

Is that even an option?

[Snipexe]

4 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

Is that even an option?

How would I know?, I’m the proven Cryptic.

[Rathmaskal]

Well, with PMs open, thoughts on everyone role claiming to me?

[Furamirionind]

SNIPEXE I LOVE YOU!

Ok, I was busy most of the night turn, so now I will go back and look at the players in this game.  (though I should probably do my homework first...)

Some general overview thoughts:

1. While I was wrong about Lum and Rath distancing, I still stand by Lum's lynch giving us the most info on the elims of any lynch right now. 
2. with 12 players, and at most 5 elims, this could very well be a do or die turn.  So while Lum would give us the most information, we need to make sure we lynch the person most suspicious.
3. That being said, 5 elims out of 17 players seems like a lot, and from what I recall of my analysis from D3, Lum was my highest suspicion. 

Let's start the voting out early

Lumgol

[Snipexe]

17 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

SNIPEXE I LOVE YOU!

 

Merry PMmas

[+Ark1002]

3 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Merry PMmas

xD

 

I'll go with Lumgol. He was the other suspect last turn, and I think he's been a secondary suspect too often.

Let's just try and eliminate him.

[old man moomba]

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

Well, with PMs open, thoughts on everyone role claiming to me?

Hmm.

I wouldn't mind doing so.

[Levitaph]

7 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

I'll go with Lumgol. He was the other suspect last turn, and I think he's been a secondary suspect too often.

Let's just try and eliminate him.

Finally! Y'all just abandoned the idea that Lum could be evil after D1. I'm glad we finally got back to this vote! Lumgol

[TheMightyLopen]

Vote tally:

Lumgol(3): Fura, Ark, Levitaph

Well Lumgol, looks like it's been decided.  Fura, 5 elims out of 17 players in a conversion game with the potential for a suicide/conversion would be insanely broken. I'm hoping there's only 3 elims and Sja-Anat is at her last life honestly, but I wouldn't bet on that. My guess is either 2 elims + 2 life Sja-Anat or 3 elims + last life Sja-Anat.

Remaining players:

1. Fura - Village leader sorta. My highest suspect for convert at this point. I can't really point to one thing that makes me think he's been converted, but I feel like it makes too much sense for him not to be converted.
2. Lumgol - Village punching bag. Ok, so I kinda get the suspicion for Lumgol, as I do think they've been kind of erratic, but I certainly don't think they're a convert. Lumgol, if you could claim and prove your role in some way, I think that would help a lot in clearing up your alignment. One reason I don't really like the Lumgol lynch is because most players are suspicious of them to some degree, and it stands to reason that some of those players are elims at this point. Could be a bus, but it seems unnecessarily early for a bus. I feel like bussing usually happens when a teammate is too far gone to be saved, not at the beginning of a Day.
3. Xino - Fairly inactive. Not a likely convert target, and I wouldn't say they're a likely Sja-Anat either. Wouldn't consider lynching.
4. Rath - Stormfather. Confirmed village up until this Turn. They could have been converted I suppose. I don't think it's wise to tell them all of our roles, although funny enough it kinda makes me think they weren't converted as suggesting that might bring a lot of attention to them.
5. Snipexe - Cryptic, basically confirmed. I don't really see the point in converting Snipexe honestly, so I think they're village.
6. Ark - Stonespren. Burned Snipexe. Constantly confuses me because I can't figure out if I suspect them or not.  Leaning village a bit right now, but I'm very unsure. Oh yeah, I Burned you. Sorry about that actually. I sent in the action after posting that theory, but I forgot about it when I woke up and decided my theory was a little too over the top.
7. Devotary - Urrrrk, idk. Potentially converted, simply because most players view them as village, and they're a good player.
8. Levitaph - A potential Sja-Anat I think. Active enough, but not a huge contributor. I read them as village initially, but they are new, so that's probably a garbage read. I really don't know much about them.
9. Shqueeves - Slightly inactive. I'm hoping they'll start to get more involved this Turn. I don't really have an opinion on them, though again, I feel like a Sja-Anat!Shqueeves would have been a little more active.
10. Lopen - Still village
11. Dr Dapper - Another potential Sja-Anat. Hasn't done a whole lot. Posts fairly frequently, but they're usually very short posts with not much in them. I didn't feel like Sja-Anat would be as casual in their posting as Dapper has been, but I could be wrong. At this point, the search is narrowing down enough that I think I should include them in the list of potential Sja-Anat's.
12. Sart - Inkspren, basically confirmed. Like I've mentioned before, a prime suspect for conversion. It wouldn't surprise me if he was just converted, but I don't think he was converted before that. I was feeling a village vibe from him at least. 

Fura, I'm not sure I see what information could be gained about the elims by a lynch on a village Lum. Most of the info we would get looks like it's mostly about whether Rath is an elim or not, and we've already established he was not evil last Cycle, so him and Lum aren't connected at all.

10 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

xD

 

I'll go with Lumgol. He was the other suspect last turn, and I think he's been a secondary suspect too often.

Let's just try and eliminate him.

Also,  Ark confirmed eliminator.

Jokes aside, I think i would be comfortable lynching any of Fura, Sart, Devotary, or Levitaph(probably my top suspect for Sja-Anat at the moment, mostly just because no one else really makes sense to me). Not sure who I'd most prefer to lynch though. I need to do some more analyzing and info digging.

[Furamirionind]

4 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Fura, I'm not sure I see what information could be gained about the elims by a lynch on a village Lum. Most of the info we would get looks like it's mostly about whether Rath is an elim or not, and we've already established he was not evil last Cycle, so him and Lum aren't connected at all.

Lum has been a serious contender for the lynch every single cycle so far.  C1 there was a counter bandwagon away from Lum, C2 it was neck in neck between Fifth and Lum, C3 it was between Lum and Rath.  Someone that, apperantly Dapper thought was the Stormfather all along? I am not sure how he was led to that conclusion, but evil!Dapper likely would have wanted to vote on Rath that lynch then to remove a life. (I am on mobile, so I havent checked his actual vote placement yet).  While we wouldnt gain as much info from a village!Lum as an evil!Lum, that is always the case.

If lynching villagers didnt provide info, we would never do a D1 lynch, as you will typically lynch a villager.

The info we get, is from people's interactions with Lum.  For instance, Shqueeves would be a horrible lynch, as no one is interacting with him. But everyone in this game has interacted with Lum.

[Lumgol]

8 hours ago, Levitaph said:

Finally! Y'all just abandoned the idea that Lum could be evil after D1. I'm glad we finally got back to this vote! Lumgol

Um, people were definitely voting for me after D1. I don't think that qualifies as "abandoning the idea that Lum could be evil".