Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Karnatheon]

What if secretly 11 is the maximum damage the Blight can do? Or, living players - 1 max damage?

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Ookla the Ring said:

What if secretly 11 is the maximum damage the Blight can do? Or, living players - 1 max damage?

huh, perhaps. That would become increasingly obvious as more players die. 
Also, we are in a bad state tonight. We are liable to be attacked 3 times, between the 2 Creatures of Aginor and the elim kill. That's... not great. 

[Karnatheon]

I'm honestly so confused right now. The only daytime ability I can think of is that Rand attacked the Blight. But Rand had to have attacked a Creeper, because he is the only role that can. Wormwood(Creeper) was killed so Rand had to have used his action on that. Unless killing a Creeper stops the +2 for some reason? I'd have to reference when creepers died before with when we lost rings.

Edit: Can't be that either. N1 a Creeper was killed and damage was calculated normally.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Ookla the Ring

[Furamirionind]

I am so confused... Rand chose to attack wormwood? Wormwood would have done 2 damage to the ring, Randuir isRand is going to kill one of us tonight, and only had 1 health left... So basically we just sacrificed a player to prevent 2 extra damage to the ring... 

Roles that are probably alive:

Spoiler

 

1. Rand
2. Mat
3. Lan
4. Moiraine
5. Loial
6. Green Man
7. Fal Dara Warrior
8. Fal Dara Warrior
9. Emond's Fielder
10. Moiraine's Circle
11. Moiraine's Circle
12. Moiraine's Circle
13. Aginor
14. Agent of Blight
15. Padan Fain

Possible other roles include:
Roleless x1
Agent of Blight x1
Fal Dara Warrior x1
Emond's Fielder x1

We have 12 players left alive. This means at least 3 roles are compound roles. And at most 7.

The people who have roleclaimed are as follows:

Spoiler

1. Steeldancer --
2. randuir --------- Emond's Fielder
3. Karn------------- ??
4. CadCom------- ??
5. Aman----------- Fal Dara Warrior
6. Rath------------ ??
7. Mark IV-------- Fal Dara Warrior
8. Fura------------ Well, I know my own role...
9. Hemalurgic -- Rand/literally anything else...
10. Joe  ----------- ??
11. Mr Doctor----- ??
12. Sart ------------ ??

As I check off roles, I will cross them off the below list:

1. Rand
2. Mat
3. Lan
4. Moiraine
5. Loial
6. Green Man
7. Fal Dara Warrior
8. Fal Dara Warrior
9. Emond's Fielder
10. Moiraine's Circle
11. Moiraine's Circle
12. Moiraine's Circle
13. Aginor
14. Agent of Blight
15. Padan Fain

This isn't much to go on. This leaves a lot of roles open to debate.  This is good as the elims cant just figure out our power roles right away, but with 3 kills tonight, they don't need to. There is a 1/3 chance they will hit any given role tonight. They will kill 1/3 of the total village tonight. We basically HAVE to kill the agent of blight D6 or I think we lost. Even if we do hit them, the chances are slim... Unless there is a similar secret rule to prevent kills? That is basically the hop right now I think.

If Randuir is an elim, we have at least 3 compound roles. If he is not, we have at least 4. Unfortunately, I don't find either of these numbers particularly unlikely... 

It sucks, but really I think we just hope that Moiraine, Lan, or Mat get targeted tonight by the creatures, as that will kill the creatures. At this point, I think the most valuable players are Moiraine and Rand.  Moiraine luckily gets an extra life by diverting the attack to Lan.

@Moiraine, I have not been able to figure out what your actions have been.  I was roleblocked N3, and I don't know if that was you or an elim.  PLEASE make sure you are roleblocking people.  It will be pretty awful if you roleblock Rand, and you will have a 1/7 chance of doing so... But you will also have either a 2/7 or 3/7 chance of roleblocking an elim.

@Rand,  I don't mean to get after you for attacking Wormwood as I have a suspicion that part of the reason the ring wasn't damaged was because you attacked Wormwood. However, I think a player at this point in the game is worth much more than the ring.  Currently I predict we lose N6 from villagers dying.  If we had lost the ring last turn, AND no one protected for the rest of the game, I predict we would lose N6. But that is with no defending. With defending that should easily be extended to D7... and we could make as far as D8 if we got really lucky.  This is why I say this is a very math heavy game.

This post isn't very well thought out, and I am rushed as my cousins are coming over soon. idk how much time I will be able to put into the rest of this game, between work and entertaining them... The next week will be really busy for me.

Everyone needs to do as much analysis as they can this turn, as the chances of any good individual surviving is slim. (We each have a 38%* chance of dying this turn... sooo....)  

*Number could vary depending on how creature kills work. Question pending

Right now, I would bet on MrDoctor being an elim. I will try to do some more analysis at some point though. (no guarantee this turn)

[Steeldancer]

There is one good thing, the creatures are random. The elims, or even the creatures could double tap a single person. But yeah I agree, it wasn't super great of Rand to kill the least threatening thing atm. Probably would be helpful if we had that Emonds Field kill as well. Because those creatures are going to continue to stack up, and currently it takes Rand 2 turns to kill one of them. I'm now a bit more nervous about Randuir, but I still think lynching Mr. Doctor is the best idea. The primary problem would be if it turns out that Mr. Doctor is Aginor, because they are hardy and a single lynch will not be effective against them. Moiraine is probably our best bet right now, because she could stop an elim releasing another creature, or Padan Fain's thing, or an elim kill. 

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Positive said:

There is one good thing, the creatures are random. The elims, or even the creatures could double tap a single person. But yeah I agree, it wasn't super great of Rand to kill the least threatening thing atm. Probably would be helpful if we had that Emonds Field kill as well. Because those creatures are going to continue to stack up, and currently it takes Rand 2 turns to kill one of them. I'm now a bit more nervous about Randuir, but I still think lynching Mr. Doctor is the best idea. The primary problem would be if it turns out that Mr. Doctor is Aginor, because they are hardy and a single lynch will not be effective against them. Moiraine is probably our best bet right now, because she could stop an elim releasing another creature, or Padan Fain's thing, or an elim kill. 

You are more nervous about Randuir, but think going after mrDoc is the best idea?

If we hit Aginor, we lose unless Moiraine gets lucky... and blocks an elim.

It is weird because going into this game I was really scared by Padan Fain, but as time has gone on, the real danger is Aginor/Balthamel. Mostly Aginor.

I would almost be for Rand claiming at this point, purely so Moiraine doesn't target them. However I have narrowed down who Rand Is in my head to 2 people, and I am confident one of those 2 is correct. Hopefully Moiraine will see the same things and not target them.

I honestly have no idea who Mat is targeting either.  I am seriously concerned that they contacted an elim and have been led astray all game.

Mr. Doctor we know nothing about and some posts ring warning bells to me.  Bleh...  I just realized, I made a case for why Mr.Doctor should have been killed by the elims N2.  Ever since then, elims have been targeting inactives or semi actives. I could see this as a ploy get rid of the credibility of that claim.  Now it doesn't matter who they kill though as they have enough killing power to cripple us...

The question becomes is he Aginor, which I would guess, yes, he is.  Aginor is probably the most powerful role in the game. He can kill, summon creatures that kill, and can manipulate the lynch. The elims would do just about anything to keep him alive, including refusing to kill helpful players in this game.  BR had been under serious suspicion the entire game.

Currently Randuir is high on my suspicion list.  We need the other fielder to claim, to prove that Randuir is an elim though.

this isnt really analysis, more like thoughts I am having.

Again, we have to target the agent of blight, not aginor.  We also need the rings to fall. It is risky, but we need Rands ability to kill aginor ASAP.

[Steeldancer]

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

You are more nervous about Randuir, but think going after mrDoc is the best idea?

If we hit Aginor, we lose unless Moiraine gets lucky... and blocks an elim.

It is weird because going into this game I was really scared by Padan Fain, but as time has gone on, the real danger is Aginor/Balthamel. Mostly Aginor.

I would almost be for Rand claiming at this point, purely so Moiraine doesn't target them. However I have narrowed down who Rand Is in my head to 2 people, and I am confident one of those 2 is correct. Hopefully Moiraine will see the same things and not target them.

I honestly have no idea who Mat is targeting either.  I am seriously concerned that they contacted an elim and have been led astray all game.

Mr. Doctor we know nothing about and some posts ring warning bells to me.  Bleh...  I just realized, I made a case for why Mr.Doctor should have been killed by the elims N2.  Ever since then, elims have been targeting inactives or semi actives. I could see this as a ploy get rid of the credibility of that claim.  Now it doesn't matter who they kill though as they have enough killing power to cripple us...

The question becomes is he Aginor, which I would guess, yes, he is.  Aginor is probably the most powerful role in the game. He can kill, summon creatures that kill, and can manipulate the lynch. The elims would do just about anything to keep him alive, including refusing to kill helpful players in this game.  BR had been under serious suspicion the entire game.

Currently Randuir is high on my suspicion list.  We need the other fielder to claim, to prove that Randuir is an elim though.

this isnt really analysis, more like thoughts I am having.

Again, we have to target the agent of blight, not aginor.  We also need the rings to fall. It is risky, but we need Rands ability to kill aginor ASAP.

I'm nervous about Randuir because if we had a single villager in there, then we could have the Emond's field kill back, making it possible to kill them in a single turn rather than 2. And you really think Mr. Doctor might just straight up be Aginor? And is there any guarantee that Randuir might not be Aginor if he's an eliminator? Paranoia will eat us alive. I currently trust my suspicion of Mr. Doctor, although admittedly after finding several reasons to suspect him I mainly focused on his posts, in particular his interactions with BR, so I didn't pay as much attention to Randuir's posts. I might find time to do more analysis tomorrow focusing on him, and trying to parse what might be going on in the Emond's field doc, but I'm also taking 2 finals tomorrow so. 

[Furamirionind]

19 minutes ago, Ookla the Positive said:

I'm nervous about Randuir because if we had a single villager in there, then we could have the Emond's field kill back, making it possible to kill them in a single turn rather than 2. And you really think Mr. Doctor might just straight up be Aginor? And is there any guarantee that Randuir might not be Aginor if he's an eliminator? Paranoia will eat us alive. I currently trust my suspicion of Mr. Doctor, although admittedly after finding several reasons to suspect him I mainly focused on his posts, in particular his interactions with BR, so I didn't pay as much attention to Randuir's posts. I might find time to do more analysis tomorrow focusing on him, and trying to parse what might be going on in the Emond's field doc, but I'm also taking 2 finals tomorrow so. 

If we get the doc back... maybe(?) We have a chance... idk.

Hmm, it is possible that Randuir isnt even in the doc but the elims were relaying what was happening in their doc... but I dont want to think too much into it at the moment, as i dont have time to actually comb through Randuirs posts.  Whoever is in the doc is more likely than not the agent of blight... though then again, I could see Padan Fain being in there just because his action is so circumstantial...

The thing we know is that there is 1 elim in that doc. I will 100% say there is no storming way there are 2 elims in there. That would give the elims power over the creatures starting d1 at the earliest and d2 at the latest.

TBH, Steel, you are on my list of possible Padan Fain people... but honestly I dont care at the moment as all I care about is catching the agent...

Edit: again though, I dont have my notes with me, so basically everything I say is from memory. So take everything I say with a grain of salt.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Furamirionind

[DeTess]

The village won't get the Emond's field Doc back, so don't try to dream of a world in which we do. Either I'm lying, and there's only elims left in there, or I'm speaking the truth, and I'll die the moment (by which I mean the cycle) the elim in there dies.

Also, why is everyone suddenly back to 'Randuir might be an elim?' Why would I have started the lynch against BR when I could have gone after Drought instead in that cycle?

To elaborate on Droughts question, if Drought had flipped elim, I'd be way more suspicious of Aman for trying to divert the vote away from Drought, while it'd have cleared mark who got in early on that vote. As it stands, it tilts the balance more in favor of Aman, as he tried to suggest another lynch when the village had a perfectly fine mislynch going.

Edited December 17, 2018 by randuir

[Karnatheon]

So, Fifth said NPCs can be roleblocked, but roleblocked The Blight will have no effect. So, unless there are secret roles or secret abilities that players have, I feel the only real axplanation is that max damage = LivingPlayers - 1. Or just 11

[Mark IV]

The quote in this post says I don't have permission to view it. Not sure what's going on here, or whether I should notify the mods or something. This is happening for a couple other quotes too.

 

Now, onto my response:
@Amanuensis

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Ooo. Direct interaction with BR. He accepts that she could be confused and even says it's understandable, but then he asks if she's usually so vocal. Makes a point of him not playing with her in a long time and being a stranger to her playstyle and asks people to talk about BR some. Could be early game distancing, given the unlikelihood of the first player he comments on being a now-known elim.

I mean, not much to say here. The only reason I mentioned how long ago I'd played with her was because it felt odd to me that she was making so much noise, but none of it was very constructive. (No offence BR, it's just a good analogy). So, yeah. I was unsure whether she usually did this. 

 

Quote

Ahh. So here he challenges Karn's opinion that the elims would kill Mat. I actually don't disagree with him about that but accusing Karn for it seems a bit of a stretch. Overall pretty NAI.
...

 

This post actually has some meat to it. After rereading the first cycle he says he has two strong gut feels. He doesn't specify who, but it does seem BR is one of them and that Karn is not. In this post he says he thinks Karn is village so it's possible if he was evil he changed his mind because it seemed unlikely to lynch him. There's nothing specific about the post that really stands out to me, though.

I was already leaning village on Karn before his "slip". But, giving bad advice to the village would be a good move for the elims, if they didn't get caught doing it. I only prodded at karn a little to see what he might say. From his response, I didn't find anything suspicious, and so I left it there. It was very likely that Village!Karn had just made a mistake because I don't see the elim team telling an elim!Karn to go post bad advice. 
Yeah, as mentioned, I had a mild gut-feel about Randuir and a gut feel about BR.

 

Quote

Questions Rath and votes for Snip, nothing I really find notable here.

I'd like to mention here, to anyone that wants to analyse D2, that I started this post with the intent to vote for Rathmaskal but by the time I'd come to actually colouring my vote in, BR had already retracted her vote. So, I decided to vote for snip. 
Side Note: I realised right now that I took brain surgery on the advice of Balthamel. Not sure what that's done to me. Perhaps I ought to get a second opinion. Antor's opinion would be highly valued, @Mr Doctor. 

 

Quote

Oh right! This is what rang alarm bells for me the first time! He had no idea that players are informed when their votes are negated, and then he proceeds to assume it was because of a defense action. Given the fact the elims have both a role block and can have their vote negated by sabotaging, and that they would have no idea what happens when a villager defends, this feels like a slip to me, like he knows for a fact Rath was village and wasn't vote blocked by Balthamel.

Yeah. I had no idea whether players were informed because I hadn't had my vote negated yet. You mentioned something along those lines (that I hadn't lost my vote that day)  yourself the next night. The reason I assumed it was a defence action was that I thought Rath would inform us if he got a notification that his block was because of some other action. At the time, I wasn't sure whether the GMs differentiated between Moiraine's negation, the defence/sabotage negation or anything else (I think those are the only two/three? Also, Aginor's vote negation. Completely missed that.) (Specifically, at the moment, I was focused on the defence/sabotage negation. I don't know why.)

 

Quote

Bit of a larger post. I find it interesting he wants to vote Rath while he's already assumed his vote was canceled by defense action. Why would he think an eliminator would defend? My assuredness on the slip intensifies.

He also gives us 3 names. Rath, BR, and randuir. Mafia rule of three says that when an eliminator gives three names, one is a teammate and the other two are village. It's not a foolproof rule, but if I'm right about Mark slipping up with Rath then there's a good chance randuir is village, too.

An elim could also lose their vote in the sabotage. Rath had no choice but to come forward with his negated vote, in case he was planning to actually hide it (that sounded better in my mind). Also, he didn't really lose much by claiming (truthfully) that he lost his vote (albeit due to sabotage of due to defence) because we didn't have an accurate count of the total number of defence actions anyways. 

At this moment, I'd like to point to this post: 

Where Randuir mentions Aman and reminds him of the reason Rath wasn't cleared. Which is exactly what I also just did.
>.>

 

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Here he votes for randuir over Metaterminal. Given Meta flipped town, this could have been an opportunity for him to oppose a bandwagon he knew would make people look unfavorable without seeming like he isn't contributing. Could have also been a genuine concern, but with the whole Rath thing I'm thinking not.

I vote for Snip, I get called out. I don't vote for Meta, I get called out. At this point, I don't much care if I get called out for (not) jumping on a bandwagon. This kind of analysis can (and right now, will) end in an IKYK, imo)

 

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Does some genuinely helpful math stuff, but tonally and strategically this post seems very different than the rest of his. I can't help but think Mark may have realized the slip he made earlier and tried to overcompensate in the opposite direction.

More like I finally found something I could help with.

 

Quote

Oh, I just was thinking that it's interesting BR was the first player he commented on and one of two he had a strong gut suspicion of, but he never voted for her and she turned out to be evil.

Oh, I just was thinking that it's interesting BR was the first player he commented on and one of two he had a strong gut suspicion of, but he never voted for her and she turned out to be evil.

FTFY

I had to chose between Randuir and BR. I chose Randuir. 

 

Lastly, my response to Aman's post yesterday: 

Quote

Regarding this, I get the logic here (and I don't have a problem with it), but the tone of this post is not what I've come to expect of Aman. Specifically the way the last two sentences are phrased. I've never seen that kind of phrasing from you, so yeah. Perhaps I can point out what I'm not happy with when I'm less sleepy. (It just seems very unprofessional, so to speak)

Link here in case anyone wants to read the whole post for context. 
 

Quote

EDIT:

OH! OH OH OH! I HAVE A LEAD!

There were a total of 5 Warriors of Fal Dara in the beginning. With the deaths of Snip, Kidpen and Bard, it's now just two! The other one is Mark, who's claimed in thread already. I had completely forgotten about the doc, if I'm honest, and neglected it the last couple turns, but I just checked it and found him asking if I'm evil. I'm not, so I figured I should bring this info out here to see what people think. Is it likely there's an elim among the Fal Dara Warriors? If so, then it's most definitely him.

I know it looks like I'm biased against this post (and, I might probably be, but I'm trying my best not to), but what I found odd was Aman's use of an inconclusive piece of logic to throw shade on me. Pulled out of context it sounds like:  
"If hypothesis H is true, then player P is definitely evil. " 
The statement brings to mind the plausibility of the truth of the claim (which may or may not be true), but we ignores the fact that we can't fundamentally say anything about Hypothesis H. It would be equally helpful if I said "Is it likely that Aman is Aginor? If so, the we should most definitely lynch him." 
(There is a slight difference in the two statements, but given that Aman won't implicate himself, it's fundamentally the same from his point of view. However, Aman's Hypothesis H is not provable at all (I don't think). In my case though, it is possible to have reasonable suspicions about a player's role).
It is understandable that he may say this, but it didn't sit well with me that it was him saying it. Felt off. 

 

I ALMOST FORGOT!
Yes, I claimed to be an elim in the Fal Dara Doc. Aman's response to me was that he was mildly vexed that he had had to go through all my posts, whereas he could have just opened the doc for "confirmation". Then he expressed joy at being right in his guess. 
IMO, the spontaneity of his response seemed genuine, and I'm inclined to believe at the moment (despite what the last paragraph might suggest) that Aman is in fact a villager. 
This kind of response was the reason I said I was an elim in the first place. Elim!Aman would have probably tried to counter me and say I was wrong (less likely) or try to find out what secret role I had that I had claimed to be an elim outside the normal doc (slightly likely) or have responded as he did (slightly likely). Aman seemed annoyed at having to go through the trouble to make a long post for nothing. As an elim, he would have already resigned himself to the fact that the post was ultimately in vain. 

Either I'm being supremely duped here, or Aman is likely village. 

This does bring up the question of which team of elims would leave the active players alive so late into the game. As someone mentioned previously, older players might on a matter of principle leave active players alive, to make the game fun. I know I did that in the games where I was an elim. But, this seems to be a strict adherence to that principle. 
I think it might be worth it to take a look at that list of old players again. 

---

That's it for my response, I guess. If I find something to analyse, I'll make a second post. However, it's unlikely that I will. 

[Furamirionind]

28 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

try to find out what secret role I had that I had claimed to be an elim outside the normal doc (slightly likely)

What is the normal doc?

[Mark IV]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

What is the normal doc?

Normal elim doc, I meant. 

[Steeldancer]

@Mr Doctor do you really not have anything to say about my accusations? 

[DeTess]

@Mark IV, I suspect the "you don't have permission" thing is causes by people linking to posts in the previous cycle before it gets merged into the main thread, resulting in a broken link.

Edited December 17, 2018 by randuir

[CadCom]

I've spent an hour or so trying to find out how the blight attack amount can be correct, and I haven't really come up with anything else, other than what is already mentioned in the thread. But I think that any further discoveries ought not to be shared with the thread, because If we, who are trying to protect the Eye, don't know what happened, the elims probably also have no idea what happened, and we don't want them figuring it out, in case it could happen again. 

 

 

[Fifth Scholar]

Please remember to submit all your actions! Only three and a half hours left in the cycle. 

[Amanuensis]

Hey everyone just checking in to say that I’m sorry I couldn’t be on long enough to participate today. If I survive tonight then I should be able to take part tomorrow, even though I suspect I’m toast tonight thanks to the fact there will be 3 kills  best of luck whoever makes it to the other side  

Edited December 17, 2018 by Amanuensis

[Karnatheon]

Well, 1/4 of us will be dead in the morning. We're definitely running out of time here. Make sure to protect Rand, Green Man!

[Furamirionind]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Well, 1/4 of us will be dead in the morning. We're definitely running out of time here. Make sure to protect Rand, Green Man!

1/3 of us will be dead. of the 12 players, 3 I think are elims.  Therefore there are 9 village. with 3 killed, 3/9 dead, 1/3 dead.

Actually though, I double checked with fifth and creatures can attack the same player... This would imply that who they pick is all calculated at the same time.  Before I said that everyone has a 38% chance to die (1/9+1/8+1/7). However this assumes that no one will pick the same target. In actuality it will be 3 1/9 chances... so each person has a 33% chance of dying, but there is also a chance that only 2 people will die tonight... or even 1... The worst possible scenario though is that the green man gets roleblocked and or rand gets hit tonight.  UGH, chance and probability... We have no control... this is so frustrating... : /

EDIT: @randuir in case I die tonight, I am not convinced of your innocence, but there are several people I am more suspicious of.  The reason I asked for the other feilder to claim, is because there is a good likelihood they would be an elim. If they did claim, I would try to lynch them. The fact that they didnt means we still dont know anything about the doc.

Mr.Dr and Mark are suspicious to me.

Has anyone been targetted by Padan Fain this entire game so far?

Edited December 18, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle is closed! Day six to come.

[Fifth Scholar]

Skern Mundy, trader from eastern Wastes
For the Shadow had potent distaste
Him Aiel had taught
The Blight must be fought
And its great evil repelled face-to-face

Once had a demon attacked his wall,
Yet yielding not and standing up tall
Mundy it repelled
While Rand al’Thor felled
Creepers advancing, though they were small

Yet a second attempt was then made
The forces of the Light, though arrayed
To defend each other
Instead were smothered
And Skern Mundy was slain in the raid

---

A gleeman that rarely did smile
A oath to fulfill without guile
Why did he appear? The answer is clear:
To put his devotion on trial.

A face made of hard angles and stone
A life of fighting Shadows alone
Lan was his real name, the one with a claim
To Malkier’s empty, long-lost throne

As Warder to Moiraine he would fall
Keeping back the great Creatures from all
And when Mundy fell, he charged with a yell
Killing Creatures, and himself, for y’all.
So go kill some people in his honour!

---

Day 6 has begun! It will end in 23 hours’ time at 21:00 EST, or 2 AM GMT (whichever comes first),  December the 18th.

Steeldancer was attacked, but was protected!

Hemalurgic Headshot was attacked by Randuir IsRand (again)! He was actually killed this time and is Roleless.

Rathmaskal was attacked by BrEn Memorium! He was Lan!

Randuir IsRand was attacked, and died!

BrEn Memorium was attacked, and died!

The newly summoned Creature, Rathwearsa Mask, was attacked! It survived.

The Eye has 36 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 7 health remaining, and is the Seventh Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 11. This is not a typo; the Blight is attacking for eleven.

A new Creeper of the Blight has appeared: Jadis! It will Send Runner N7 unless stopped. Nailicis and Nogard are still alive, and will Send Runner N6 unless stopped. Screwtape is still alive, and will Send Runner today unless stopped.

Emond’s Fielders’ Message: 

Spoiler

I don’t understand why some of you have elected to believe that I am Randuir attempting to confuse you. If Randuir were a forsaken, he would have to be confident enough that no one would be able to counter his claim, which would mean that he would have to be certain that the other member of this doc would have to be silent. I am most certainly not silent.

The other possibility, of course would be that Randuir is the only one left which would mean that there were only 3 in Emond’s Fielders from the beginning, which seems unlikely, don’t you think?

 

Randuir’s comments regarding the above: This is obviously a massive IKYK for everyone that can’t see the doc (though I would point out that Devotary guessed all docs had 4 people in there, and he was in this doc). It’s also a beautiful piece of misdirection if it’s aimed at me with the intent of making me less suspicious of the possibility there’s elims among those pushing the ‘rand is an elim’ agenda

There is a lynch today. 

Please remember that PMs are closed.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit Roleless
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies Lan

9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will Warrior of Fal Dara

11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills Roleless

15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother Emond’s Fielder; Fal Dara Warrior
16. A Joe in the Bush as Joseph, a man who has mastered the art of squeezing into very small spaces in bushes

17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power Moiraine’s Circle

18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi Balthamel

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

Edited December 18, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Karnatheon]

So 11 must be max damage. Cause it should be 12 after breaking through like that. Also, we only had 5 effective defense last turn. Lan died, which sucks, but pretty much confirms Moiraine exists. Elims targeted Steel, but he was protected. Sabotage actions will be cancelled while on this layer, so if we want to we can make this one last a while. Given the situation with creepers and creatures and everything though, I don't know how long we want to try and hold out before the eye. Once we hit the Eye Rand can start trying to kill Aginor, which will stop more creature summons.

[Mr Doctor]

@Ookla the Positive my response to your accusations.

 

22 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

Also, given that Drought has turned Village, I'm further suspicious of Mr. Doctor. 

 - Steeldancer

Yes, I did contribute to a lynch on a Villager, but only because it would solidify any lynch at all and I believed that the plan was to Defend that Cycle. I think that Furamirionind is more suspicious given Drought's flip, since he's been targeting Drought since the start of the game. What do you feel about that?

 

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Right now, I would bet on MrDoctor being an elim. I will try to do some more analysis at some point though. (no guarantee this turn)

 - Furamirionind

Acknowledged, and I look forward to this reasoning.

 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

I'm now a bit more nervous about Randuir, but I still think lynching Mr. Doctor is the best idea. The primary problem would be if it turns out that Mr. Doctor is Aginor, because they are hardy and a single lynch will not be effective against them.

 - Steeldancer

As has been pointed out, why lynch me over randuir?

 

18 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Mr. Doctor we know nothing about and some posts ring warning bells to me.  Bleh...  I just realized, I made a case for why Mr.Doctor should have been killed by the elims N2.  Ever since then, elims have been targeting inactives or semi actives. I could see this as a ploy get rid of the credibility of that claim.  Now it doesn't matter who they kill though as they have enough killing power to cripple us...

 - Furamirionind

What is your case? Is this in reference to how I don't mind killing inactives as much as I used to? Here's an explanation of that. I suppose it is relevant that in LG46 I decided to kill inactives rather than active players because it was more sporting, but I don't think that this is your case. 

18 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

The question becomes is he Aginor, which I would guess, yes, he is.  Aginor is probably the most powerful role in the game. He can kill, summon creatures that kill, and can manipulate the lynch. The elims would do just about anything to keep him alive, including refusing to kill helpful players in this game.  BR had been under serious suspicion the entire game.

 - Furamirionind

Why do you think this? I'm not really sure how you're so adamant that I'm not only an Elim, but Aginor. I can't really respond to this other than to deny it until you give me some hard reasons and evidence. I'm happy to do that, but I can't exactly clear things up if you don't tell me what you suspect.

 

18 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

And you really think Mr. Doctor might just straight up be Aginor? And is there any guarantee that Randuir might not be Aginor if he's an eliminator? Paranoia will eat us alive. I currently trust my suspicion of Mr. Doctor, although admittedly after finding several reasons to suspect him I mainly focused on his posts, in particular his interactions with BR, so I didn't pay as much attention to Randuir's posts. I might find time to do more analysis tomorrow focusing on him, and trying to parse what might be going on in the Emond's field doc, but I'm also taking 2 finals tomorrow so. 

 - Steeldancer

This conversation is feeling a bit staged, but I'll let that slide for now. What is your suspicion, and what are your reasons for suspecting me? As for my interactions with BR, I'll go through them in order:

1. Commented on the fact that she preferred reading people to rules, and the only suspicious thing I may have said was "Nothing suspicious here yet", but that's generally just how I talk. I like to leave things open. Source post.
2. I commented on her vote on Snipexe and said that I don't really have much against the vote even though I didn't agree with it at that stage. I did end up voting on Snipexe that cycle to solidify it. Additionally, I told her what Fifth had said about the preferred minimum number of players. Source post.

Maybe I missed one of them. What of these made you suspicious? And what were your initial suspicions?

 

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Mr.Dr and Mark are suspicious to me.

 - Furamirionind

I've read everything you've said about me last Cycle, and...why?

 

@Ookla the Positive @Furamirionind I will happily defend myself from your suspicions, and I would like to hear them, but so far, there hasn't been much evidence. I can defend myself and discuss, and I'm happy to do that if it saves my life, but I can't do that if you don't give me evidence. At least give me something that I can challenge, because right now it looks like you're trying to make me defend myself so that I look suspicious.

As much as throwing suspicions back and forth gets us nowhere, Fura and Steel are looking pretty bad by ganging up on me with no real evidence. However, because Furamirionind has been focusing on Drought all game and he turned out to be a Villager, I'd prefer to vote on him this Cycle.

[CadCom]

Unfortunately, we lost Lan, but on the good side, we did manage to get rid of both creatures and deal damage to the third that was created this cycle. That means Rand should be able to take care or Rath(creature, not character) today. We still have 7 health left on the current ring, so that's good as well. 

I'm seeing some of the popular discussions being between aman and mark, or between mr. doctor and fura. Then there's also the discussion of randuir, and whether he's ikyk-ing us. (Which I could see happening, but I personally doubt)

I'll provide more thoughts on this tomorrow. Specifically the aman/mark and the mr. Doctor/fura discussions. As i suspect at least one elim among those two discussions.