Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Ark1002 said:

Well then, I'm now suspicious of... everybody. Dang.

Watch me get lynched again, even though I'm innocent.

Hey Ark! I didnt mean to accuse you of being an elim, I was basically just asking for you to post more. I appreciate you posting a couple times this turn, and look forward to seeing more as time goes on. : )

[Steeldancer]

Remember what I said about analysis? Well, yeah... I'm pretty much brain dead from hours upon hours of studying. Maybe this wasn't such a great idea...

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle is over! Come see the new cycle in an hour or two. 

[Fifth Scholar]

Shifting Shadows shifted in the shadow

Of a shifting and shadowy night

The shifting moonlight did cast shadows

On a shifty and Shadow-filled Blight

 

As the shadows shifted all around him,

Shifting Shadows, shadowed by the shifting

Of the wolves who in shifts watched the shadows

For shifty Shadowspawn listening,

 

Was shifted from his place by a shadow

Which shifting, shadowed forms failed to find

And the stain spreading on Shifting Shadows

Would have shifted a Shadowspawn’s mind

 

To shift away from the man in the shadows,

Whose blood shifted on shadowy ground,

Shift towards the triumph of the Shadow

Whose shadowed servants were shifting around.

 

Day 4 has begun! It will end in 23 hours’ time at 21:00 EST, or 2 AM GMT,  December the 14th.

Ark1002 was killed! He was an Emond’s Fielder and Fal Dara Warrior.

The Eye has 36 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 1 health remaining, and is the Third Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 8.

A Creeper of the Blight has appeared: Wormwood! It will Send Runner N5 unless stopped. In addition, Poxx is still alive, and will Send Runner on N4 unless stopped.

A Creature of Aginor, which has been christened Randuir IsRand, has appeared! It will start attacking people N4 unless stopped.

There is a lynch today.

Emond’s Fielders message: 

Spoiler

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

 

                             --Person claiming to be Ark.

Please remember that PMs are closed. Also, don’t forget rollover is an hour earlier than it was before. 

Regarding my profile picture, it’s not a new one—it’s actually one of my older ones, and I was itching to get back to my regular name anyways so I figured I may as well change the picture back. Sorry if I spoiled all the Ookla festivity  

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will
11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother Emond’s Fielder; Fal Dara Warrior
16. STINK, a formless thread in the pattern with less than 24 hours to identify himself before the Creator does
17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power Moiraine’s Circle

18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

Edited December 14, 2018 by Fifth Scholar
One of these cycles, I’ll remember the anonymous message...

[Furamirionind]

15 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

A Creature of Aginor, which has been christened Randuir IsRand, has appeared! It will start attacking people N4 unless stopped

The Elims name the creatures, so we have one with a sense of humor.

There is my analysis for now. : P

I have homework to do.

[Karnatheon]

So, we again have a case where the elims took out a relative inactive with no posted suspicions. We also have our first case of a double doc.

[Sart]

Okay, so I want to make sure I've got a vote down before I forget. I think Amanuensis is an Elim. My reasoning comes from the kill selection. The Eliminators have been targeting people who haven't been active, which is odd. Normally you want to kill the trusted villagers first, to prevent discussion. However, some older players think that harms the health of the games, and so chose to target those who aren't contributing. It's the equivalent of playing on hard mode. Aman is one of the most experienced players on here, and I recall him doing this in a previous game. In addition, he was also inactive on Day 2, where most of the active players must have defended. Thus, he seems to be a likely candidate for being evil.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Okay, so I want to make sure I've got a vote down before I forget. I think Amanuensis is an Elim. My reasoning comes from the kill selection. The Eliminators have been targeting people who haven't been active, which is odd. Normally you want to kill the trusted villagers first, to prevent discussion. However, some older players think that harms the health of the games, and so chose to target those who aren't contributing. It's the equivalent of playing on hard mode. Aman is one of the most experienced players on here, and I recall him doing this in a previous game. In addition, he was also inactive on Day 2, where most of the active players must have defended. Thus, he seems to be a likely candidate for being evil.

This exact logic can be made against: Randuir, MrDoctor, SteelDancer, and Young Bard.  In addition to anyone else who has been around as long as them, which I think STINK and Mark also qualify? and probably some others.

Another reason (which I think Randuir pointed out) why they could be targeting semi-actives is to hide the active elims that are among us.  They are not targeting inactives, so it isn't necessarily playing on hard mode, as they are still depriving us of of knowledge, roles, and votes each turn.

As I learned earlier today that Bard is always an elim: Young Bard

...However, as I suspect Sart MUCH more than Bard: Young Bard, Sart

Beyond Sart, I am still apprehensive of MrDoctor.

Still not done with my final... Almost though...

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind
Spelling corrections now that I am not in such a rush to post.

[DeTess]

Just FYI, Ark had identified himself in the fielders doc. I find it just a bit too much of a coincidence that of the possible low-activity players, the elims just happened to pick an Emond's Fielder. Unfortunately, I don't have much of a lead on who the other person remaining in the doc is though.

I'm going to place a vote on Brightness Radiant ( @BrightnessRadiant ) Her vote on SnipExe because she wanted to see how Karnatheons vote played out, followed by her backpedaling on reading him as an elim if SnipExe flipped village once others expressed similar views has got alarm bells ringing with me.

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, I hadn't considered that... I assume they are trying to make it so that the people in that doc are unable to attack creatures.  That is an interesting strategy though, as there are other ways to kill creatures if I remember correctly.  So killing people not in that doc might be a safer bet as you probably have a better chance of killing Moiraine or Green man... I had more to say on the topic... But I forgot it... Thats what happens when you stay up until 3am apperantly...

An interesting issue with the anonymous doc message is that there is only one anonomous member left... So they and Randuir can edit the message (though Ark also could for this last one).  However I am curious as to who wrote this one... I actually think that people revealing who they were in this doc may have been a bit of a misplay, as if Mat was to contact one of them, they could then share info publicly...

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind
Slight rephrasing

[DeTess]

Ark wrote the text for this one, but I believe the attribution to him came from the other anon (I'd seen it, and suggested it was dropped, but didn't remove it myself as it wasn't my text). Ark's been a big proponent of adding the primal scream, so I guess there's a certain amount of irony in it being his eulogy as well.

Edit: the Emond's fielders are the only ones with an active kill against the creatures. Mat and Lan can kill one if it kills them, but that's it. Killing the green man would remove the kill as well, but that'd only work if they can find the green man.

Edited December 14, 2018 by randuir

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Edit: the Emond's fielders are the only ones with an active kill against the creatures. Mat and Lan can kill one if it kills them, but that's it. Killing the green man would remove the kill as well, but that'd only work if they can find the green man.

Alright... I apperantly misremembered.  In that case, this is the cycle we start to get in trouble.  We NEED to lynch an elim this cycle.  If we don't, I think the only way we will likely win is through a combination of RNG and the elims making mistakes.

It is possible that the elims actually do have 4-5 players, and the reason they are killing semi-actives, is because they feel they have already won. And are trying to give us a pseudo-chance. I don't think that more likely than other possibilities, but just throwing that out there.

The ideal situation as far as rings go is for Rand to kill Poxx today. We then let through enough damage to breach this ring, and we try to full out defend N4 so that Randuir IsRand (great name btw) has as little chance as possible of killing any village.  Naturally though, some roles just can't afford to defend... so we hope only one of us dies that night. However, I don't think we will be able to hold the ring D5, which will hurt, because that means there probably will be 2 deaths N5. We can then get rid of the creature D6... but there will already be 2 new ones by then if we don't lynch Aginor today.

On another note, was anyone roleblocked this past night? I think this is REALLY important.

Was anyone redirected this past night? If you were redirected on ANY turn, please what turn you were redirected, and to whom.

Edit: actually, since I don't think we will be able to hold ring 4 D5, Rand might as well Attack Randuir IsRand today, then let the creeper die on it's own attacking the ring 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

...

The ideal situation as far as rings go is for Rand to kill Poxx today. We then let through enough damage to breach this ring, and we try to full out defend N4 so that Randuir IsRand (great name btw) has as little chance as possible of killing any village.  Naturally though, some roles just can't afford to defend... so we hope only one of us dies that night. However, I don't think we will be able to hold the ring D5, which will hurt, because that means there probably will be 2 deaths N5. We can then get rid of the creature D6... but there will already be 2 new ones by then if we don't lynch Aginor today.

On another note, was anyone roleblocked this past night? I think this is REALLY important.

Was anyone redirected this past night? If you were redirected on ANY turn, please what turn you were redirected, and to whom.

Edit: actually, since I don't think we will be able to hold ring 4 D5, Rand might as well Attack Randuir IsRand today, then let the creeper die on it's own attacking the ring 

Lynching an elim is very important, But if we lynch Aginor, all we will know is that we lynched someone with two lives. That's still very useful information, because we can just lynch them the next cycle and find out who he is if that's the case. Or if anyone has a night kill(I can't remember right now) Then they'd be able to take him out. But my point is that Aginor has two lives, so even if we lynch them they will survive. 

I wasn't role blocked or redirected, this cycle, or any. 

So, Rand can do one damage against either a creature of the blight, or the creature of Aginor, right? The creature of Aginor also has 2 lives, so Rand wouldn't be able to kill it tonight, unless the Emond's fielders can also submit a kill, by looking at the discussion so far, from randuir and fura, that might be difficult. But if we don't kill it, then it will kill one of us. 

Then, we have Poxx, the creeper of Blight, which will deal 2 damage tonight, unless stopped. But I think what you're arguing is that stopping the creature of Aginor, as opposed to the creeper of blight is a better option? If so I think I agree, but all the mathmatics in this game are admittedly not my specialty. 

[Furamirionind]

Uhhhhh, I forgot Aginor was hardy... so basically, we hope there are only 3 elims and we lynch Balthamel.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on any help coming from the fielders doc. *cough*but if the fielders want to give us cause to trust them *cough**cough*I encourage them to do so*cough*.

Yeah, I am saying let the creeper do its worst.  The creature will kill us first.

[CadCom]

Well, I was just looking at the abilities we have from defending the rings, and I noticed that on the fourth ring, anyone defending the ring will be immune to the creatures of Aginor. Once we start having to defend that level It will probably be good to stay on that ring as long as possible as well. 

[Rathmaskal]

Again, I would like to say that I do NOT like the idea of giving up a ring.  It allows the secondary of escalation of blight attack to begin that much sooner on later rings.  Even if we only save it for one round, it's a useful effort.  Besides, if we *let* a ring fall at this point, we're going to lose multiple.  Everyone should be defending who can afford to.

[Karnatheon]

So I'll try to make a bigger post tonight. Am I allowed to link to the Google doc I've been compiling everything in? Or is that against the rules/frowned upon? To clarify, not a game doc, a personal Google doc.

[DeTess]

Karn, it's generally not allowed to remove information from a post you've made, unless that information is in breach with one of the other rules. Linking a doc would allow you to change its contents easily without it necessarily being easy to check, so I think it'd be better if you put everything in the post. I'm not a mod or GM, of course, so they might decide it's fine. This is just what I can find in the rules for this particular case.

I've been going back over the Meta lynch, and it's starting to really bother me. Amanuensis vote seems well-reasoned and he brings some of his own arguments to the table, but if either Amanuensis or Furami ends up flipping Elim, I'd take another hard look at the other one.

However, almost every vote afterwards had very little in the way of reasoning to it. Droughtbringer voted to solidify the vote and because he didn't like the Fura vote. At that time the lynch was still wide open and there was plenty of time left int eh cycle, but he didn't make mention of any of the other lynch candidates. After that was cadcom voted on Meta because he thought Fura was village. Once again, no mention of any other candidates. The final votes all happened at the tail-end of the cycle, so I'm less suspicious of those.

I think Droughtbringer's lack of content in particular has crossed the line into being very suspicious. He's got plenty of posts and some interactions with people, but absolutely ntohing that resembles an indication that he's working to solve the game.

As it is, I want to lynch either BR or Droughtbringer this cycle, but my preference still goes to BR as she's had more interactions and therefore it should be easier to solve the game if she's lynch ed as an elim than in Drought's case.

Edited December 14, 2018 by randuir

[Furamirionind]

I am also for lynching BR and Drought. But before I change my vote, I am going to do some role analysis (not publically, obviously) as I think we really want to hit a specific elim this turn, not just any elim.

[CadCom]

I agree with the lynch on Brightness Radiant. For the reasons I expressed last turn, So That is where I will put my vote. 

Also, as is typical for me of the weekends, my activity goes down, but I will try to check in over the weekent. 

[DeTess]

@Furamirionind, have you started reading wheel of time by now?

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Furamirionind, have you started reading wheel of time by now?

Yeah... I started it, but I am still only halfway through.  I was struggling with it, so finished Skyward first. I am going to start trying to read it again starting this weekend, though I may start over...

Why?

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind
Why?

[DeTess]

The other Emond's fielder has revealed their real alignment by voting to block the creature kill, and I happen to know they've only just started reading of the eye of the world, so I was just wondering.

 

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, randuir said:

The other Emond's fielder has revealed their real alignment by voting to block the creature kill, and I happen to know they've only just started reading of the eye of the world, so I was just wondering.

Well, big surprise. How do you know they just started reading Eye of the World? Who copied the declaration of independence into the doc?

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind
Achem! "Declaration"... Not "Deceleration" lol

[DeTess]

I did that, and I know that because of an exchange we had all the way at the start of the doc, in which I alluded to the way every single wheel of time book starts, and it wen't completely over their head. They said as much in the doc. Though it could be faked the whole exchange ran too natural to be fake, I think.

There's a couple of other clues that could be more easily faked, such as that they where inactive for N1 and most of D2 in the doc, and that they seem to be in an american east-coast time-zone based on when they are active.