Quick Fix Game 11: Cultists in a Snowstorm

[Clanky]

Not really.  Last time round the Cultists were honest with who they were voting for while others didn't say who they were going for so all the attention went on the innocents.  At least for the first three cycles which was enough for us to win the game.

 

Are their any other mistakes that were made in the first run of this game that we should be aware of?

Edited November 24, 2015 by Clanky

[Alvron]

Are their any other mistakes that were made in the first run of this game that we should be aware of?

Well, don't vote for yourself for one.  Joe did that and it ended up being the tiebreaker vote.

[Mailliw73]

Meta, you're right, I won't say. All I'll say is that they get a PM unless there's enough for a doc to be easier, in which case, it'd still act as a "PM" in regards to the Seon Holder(s).

[Clanky]

Now that is an interesting twist!

[Mailliw73]

If a player is checked by a Priest, the player will not be notified.

[Lightsworn Panda]

Panda signing in. I have nothing to contribute as of yet, and nothing in terms of relevant discussion. A poke vote may be coming.

 

Creccio, do you play League of Legends?

[Alvron]

 

Yeah, I agree; probably best if we don't try to be too clever, especially when it comes to voting. We're also likely not going to have a whole lot of turns this game as well. I'd estimate the Cultists to be anywhere from 2-5, with 4 being the most likely number. With 17 players and 2 of them likely dying a cycle, it'll be over in about 6 cycles or so and that's if everyone is active! 

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

EDIT: So as to not double post, I created this list based off of who has had the possibility of seeing what their role is in this game and whether they have spoken up. Seen + Spoken obviously means that they've been in thread so far, Seen means that they've were online after the game began, and Not Seen means they haven't been online since the game has started. 

 

Now, this is by no means a list of suspicions or anything. Someone who hasn't been online yet could very well have gotten an email notification and thus already know their role. On the other side of the coin, someone that was online after the game had started might have been on another part of the forum and still hasn't checked their PMs. There's no real way to tell at this point. 

That said, I would like to hear from those that have Seen next to their name on why they haven't spoken up in thread yet. It could be that they've been busy planning in a Doc or a PM with the other Cultists.*

 

1. Hellscythe: Seen + Spoken

2. IrulelikeSTINK: Seen

3. Alvron: Seen + Spoken

4: Orlok: Seen

5: Bridge Boy: Not Seen

6: Venture Mistborn: Not Seen

7: Metacognition: Seen + Spoken

8: Ostrichofevil: Not Seen

9: Creccio: Seen + Spoken

10: Kaid: Not Seen

11: Bort: Not Seen

12: Phattemer: Really Not Seen

13: Shallan: Not Seen

14: Clanky: Seen + Spoken

15: TheMightyLopen: Seen + Spoken

16: Lightsworn Panda: Not Seen

17: Elkanah: Seen

 

While I agree with your estimated numbers of Cultists I disagree with your list.

 

When LG15a started I got an email notification with my role and link to the doc so I was able to get into the doc without having to log in to the Shard.  It was about 5 hours later that I did pop into the Shard to officially learn my role so it's easily possible that others could do the same making your list almost pointless.

 

Also, something else has occurred to me.  The cultists can't have a protector.  Since it protects from the lynch as well as the cultist kill it makes any cultist protector basically immortal.  They won't be attacked via other Cultist and the lynch can't kill them as long as they protect themselves.  Combined with the Cultist kill being by vote instead of action it also means that even if they are the last one standing they could continue to protect themselves while killing everyone else making the game unwinnable for the village.

[Creccio]

Panda signing in. I have nothing to contribute as of yet, and nothing in terms of relevant discussion. A poke vote may be coming.

 

Creccio, do you play League of Legends?

 

I play ton of league of legends. Long live the ADC overlords of your metagme. I am also a HUGE Jinx fans as you can see.

 

 

Now to actual game...

 

I am going to vote for Orlok

 

Why? Because I believe that he is a valuable and outspoken player, he can be a great asset but still hasnt said anything.

 

Also, please do NOT think or assume anything in the game except for the Soldier combo. Mail is tricky and he said somewhere i cant recall that he WAS going to mess with us. We have 17 players, i bet we have 4 on the Cult side because thats about 25% I guess..

 

Right now we should not bother with the amount of traitors but who IS a traitor or not.

 

At this point i believe the "d1 lynch" discussion is meaningless and we should NOT i repeat, NOT have a lynch... Give the scanner some time to work and lets hope that person gets lucky.

 

If anyone disagrees please let me know, lets share ideas and come up with a plan to get this going

[Lightsworn Panda]

I play ton of league of legends. Long live the ADC overlords of your metagme. I am also a HUGE Jinx fans as you can see.

 

My Jax and Yi are equally happy with this new meta (Hybrid Yi and Jax FTW). I myself am a big Zed fan. For a time my signature as "The Unseen Panda is the Deadliest".

 

Also, please do NOT think or assume anything in the game except for the Soldier combo. Mail is tricky and he said somewhere i cant recall that he WAS going to mess with us. We have 17 players, i bet we have 4 on the Cult side because thats about 25% I guess..

 

Right now we should not bother with the amount of traitors but who IS a traitor or not.

 

At this point i believe the "d1 lynch" discussion is meaningless and we should NOT i repeat, NOT have a lynch... Give the scanner some time to work and lets hope that person gets lucky.

 

If anyone disagrees please let me know, lets share ideas and come up with a plan to get this going

 

I understand that playing passive and not lynching someone on the first day might minimalize our casualities. In some Long and Mid-Range Games, this strategy could be viable. Unfortunately, we are currently playing a Quick Fix game, which encourages faster and more aggressive gameplay. Having a Day 1 lynch provides us with much more data, in the form of votes and reasoning, and can also kick-start discussion. By not having a Day 1 lynch, we are stagnating our own information pool. Letting the scanner/s do his job would take far too long. Statistically speaking, the Priest has a 1 in 4 or 5 chance of finding an Elminator, so it could potentially take the scanner multiple days to tag an Eliminator. Leaving it up to luck is too risky. We must make advances too.

[Creccio]

Panda,

 

Who should die first then? Is there any proof against any of us?

 

Do you prefer to blindly kill someone and then just ponder what the votes mean?

 

Who do you suggest goes on the chopping block

[Curious Anamaximder]

Hmmmm....

I'm going to make my vote later, when on a computer.

[Shallan]

I also won't vote for now, but probably will a bit later.

[Metacognition]

While I agree with your estimated numbers of Cultists I disagree with your list.

 

When LG15a started I got an email notification with my role and link to the doc so I was able to get into the doc without having to log in to the Shard.  It was about 5 hours later that I did pop into the Shard to officially learn my role so it's easily possible that others could do the same making your list almost pointless.

 

Also, something else has occurred to me.  The cultists can't have a protector.  Since it protects from the lynch as well as the cultist kill it makes any cultist protector basically immortal.  They won't be attacked via other Cultist and the lynch can't kill them as long as they protect themselves.  Combined with the Cultist kill being by vote instead of action it also means that even if they are the last one standing they could continue to protect themselves while killing everyone else making the game unwinnable for the village.

 

Well I did say that that exact scenario is indeed possible! The list is far from useless though. In every game, at the very beginning, the only ones who know anything are the Eliminators. The Villagers are left to struggle with finding a means to find people suspicious and others that they can trust. In order to do that, we have to start somewhere; even if that somewhere is a dead end. Why? Because it starts the dialogue. It gets people talking and giving you other areas in which to determine whether someone is guilty or innocent. 

My list already gave a line of questioning for a few different people, which will help us figure out if there is anything to my hypothesis (if they ever get back on). If there isn't anything, then it still got the discussion started. 

On top of all that, to be fair Alv, you're just paranoid enough to do exactly like you said you did. Not everyone would take the same precaution. At the very least, if they had seen their roles, they could've at least checked in to let us know that we don't have to worry about them being inactive (unlike Phatt, who got "Really Not Seen" next to his name because he didn't check in basically at all yesterday! O.o ).

 

Now to actual game...

 

I am going to vote for Orlok

 

Why? Because I believe that he is a valuable and outspoken player, he can be a great asset but still hasnt said anything.

 

Also, please do NOT think or assume anything in the game except for the Soldier combo. Mail is tricky and he said somewhere i cant recall that he WAS going to mess with us. We have 17 players, i bet we have 4 on the Cult side because thats about 25% I guess..

 

Right now we should not bother with the amount of traitors but who IS a traitor or not.

 

At this point i believe the "d1 lynch" discussion is meaningless and we should NOT i repeat, NOT have a lynch... Give the scanner some time to work and lets hope that person gets lucky.

 

If anyone disagrees please let me know, lets share ideas and come up with a plan to get this going

Panda,

 

Who should die first then? Is there any proof against any of us?

 

Do you prefer to blindly kill someone and then just ponder what the votes mean?

 

Who do you suggest goes on the chopping block

[bold added for emphasis]

 

You mean a suspicion like someone voting for someone in the exact same post that they claim that we shouldn't kill anyone? Cause that looks pretty suspicious to me. 

 

As I was saying above and pointed out in a PM already, you really can't get much discussion without the threat of the lynch on Day 1 and that discussion is key. We have to find a starting point to begin trying to work out who is who sometime and it's far better to do so as soon as possible rather than wait for a role (a role, I might add, that we don't even know if we have. You, yourself claim that we shouldn't assume anything about Maill's distribution [a claim I agree with], but you want us to wait on a role that we may or may not have?) to do our job for us. 

 

Also, if you look back on past games, Day 1 lynches, when they have occurred, have been far from disastrous. In fact, there have been quite a few times where Day 1 lynches have either killed (Shallan in QF9) or almost killed Eliminators (BB in LG15) and thus given us much needed information! Even when they do wind up hitting an "important" role (I put it in quotes because I don't think any role is more important than any other, up to and including roleless), it's not necessarily a death sentence for the Villagers. 

 

Beyond the generalistic benefits of the lynch, in particular for this game considering how voting works, it would behoove us even more to take the lynch into our own hands. Since votes are sent in via PM, the Cultists can override a lynch vote of ours if we give them the chance. Granted, that will make them suspicious, but there are plenty of possible excuses for them to use to deflect some of it and if all they need is another cycle or two, then it might be worth the risk for them. Or, they could use it to take out someone that they suspect is a role that they desperately do not want around/causing them problems. 

 

I think we're better off using our resources to our advantage rather than squander them, so I am all for the lynch. In that idea, I really do want to hear from those, like STINK, Orlok, and Elkanah about why they didn't at least speak up. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I'm very sorry I haven't been active so far - part of this is due to timezones; the game started at 10:45PM for me, and other than checking the thread briefly, there wasn't anything at the time I felt I could meaningfully contribute.

I'm currently at school, where I have limited wifi - and rarely enough time to actually post.

 

I shall be on and available to look through the thread in about 1 hour and 20 minutes from now.

[Elkanah]

 

I understand that playing passive and not lynching someone on the first day might minimalize our casualities. In some Long and Mid-Range Games, this strategy could be viable. Unfortunately, we are currently playing a Quick Fix game, which encourages faster and more aggressive gameplay. Having a Day 1 lynch provides us with much more data, in the form of votes and reasoning, and can also kick-start discussion. By not having a Day 1 lynch, we are stagnating our own information pool. Letting the scanner/s do his job would take far too long. Statistically speaking, the Priest has a 1 in 4 or 5 chance of finding an Elminator, so it could potentially take the scanner multiple days to tag an Eliminator. Leaving it up to luck is too risky. We must make advances too.

 

I agree that we need a lynch Day 1, but I have no leads. From the few posts we've had so far, the only people that have struck me as odd are Meta and Creccio. I'm willing to believe that Meta is just trying to get people to post, which almost makes him a valuable asset. I am suspicious of Creccio, but I'm suspicious of everyone. It's very possible that these two only stand out to me because they have played a prominent part in the conversation so far, while the cultists lay low.

 

Well, don't vote for yourself for one.  Joe did that and it ended up being the tiebreaker vote.

 

Haha, That is unfortunate. Lesson learned I won't do that. XD

 

I will hold on to my vote for now, but I want to place one before the end of the cycle.

[Bort]

Hi all, just checking in.

 

I feel we should probably lynch Creccio for eating all the stew, but given that we are already nearing the end of the cycle, and we currently only have one vote for STINK and one for Ostrich, I'm going to choose one of them.

 

About the only reasoning I can see is STINK has been in thread but not posted, and Ostrich hasn't, so far as we know. So, STINK.

[Elithanathile]

Hey guys! Sorry for not saying anything earlier. I didn't get the email notification this time, when I usually do. So that was weird, and so I didn't even know it existed until 5 minutes. But I'm here now! I probably won't vote this cycle, as no suspicions means no voting for me. So now I'm seen+heard.

[STINK]

I've been on my phone so far, and also there hasn't been anything to say, as I'm trying not to say useless stuff this game.

[Creccio]

@Meta

 

I can see your point but  I still think Peace is the way to go on most day 1.

 

I can claim peace all I want in thread and still vote on PM mind you, that will more than likely get me killed, but it can happen.

 

Anyway, who do you suggest goes to the block? At this point we have suspicions equaling me eating the stew, poke votes, PM's and inactiveness of the thread and what analysis there is.

[Clanky]

So nobody has really commented on this but what should we do with the Seon holders? Since by their death the Cultists will lose all means of communication and won't be able to talk at all outside of the thread. I feel like it is better to remove all PMs if it means hat the cultists are also without communication.

 

Now this doesn't mean that I think we should be getting all the seon holders to claim so we can lynch them. We don't want to kill innocents just for that but maybe Seon holders can try and be a bit more risky in this game. Go for the big plays and don't worry too much about survival maybe? I don't know if this is a thing but perhaps we could get some discussion on it.

[Metacognition]

 

@Meta

 

I can see your point but  I still think Peace is the way to go on most day 1.

 

I can claim peace all I want in thread and still vote on PM mind you, that will more than likely get me killed, but it can happen.

 

Anyway, who do you suggest goes to the block? At this point we have suspicions equaling me eating the stew, poke votes, PM's and inactiveness of the thread and what analysis there is.

 

Honestly, you're probably my biggest suspect right now then. You ask for people's opinions and reasoning for a Day 1 lynch, but provide no reasoning for your own position. You're preaching peace ever since your very first post (seems a little overboard to me) and yet you claim you want to vote. You constantly ask for everyone else's thoughts while providing little of your own. You try to down play the suspicion I already directed towards you by trying to make it all about the jests of you eating the stew. 

 

Considering this is all just based off of what I've only seen in less than a 24h period, sure, that's a lot of conjecture. You could really feel like a Day 1 lynch is just the worst idea of all the possible ideas ever. You could be trying to get other people to talk (though I've been far more than talkative already. I've already put my thoughts out there) by asking questions. You could've not taken my suspicion of you seriously before.

 

That said, it's a lot more than I've heard anyone else coming up with. It's a bit difficult to find out who's a Cultist when everyone is trying to make sure that they don't get singled out as possibly one. 

 

 

My other suspicion is Lopen. I mentioned to him last night that I had a reason, a small reason, but a reason, to be somewhat of suspicious of Alv and he never even mentioned it. To me, it felt like he was trying to sweep it under the rug. I mean, the game hadn't even been going for over 4 hours yet and I had even an inkling of suspicion? How would that even be possible? I figured it would at least spark his curiosity, but nothing. It very well could be that he didn't want me to know how close I was getting. Or, he might not have wanted to come off too eager for information.

Or he could've just dismissed it. That's definitely a possibility after all, but it's still something for me to poke and prod at as time goes on. 

 

Which is the point. We never have solid evidence unless it's given to us by a seeker/Priest in this case, so we do what we can with what we can find. To me, it feels like a lot of people haven't even started looking yet even. 

 

 

So nobody has really commented on this but what should we do with the Seon holders? Since by their death the Cultists will lose all means of communication and won't be able to talk at all outside of the thread. I feel like it is better to remove all PMs if it means hat the cultists are also without communication.

 

Now this doesn't mean that I think we should be getting all the seon holders to claim so we can lynch them. We don't want to kill innocents just for that but maybe Seon holders can try and be a bit more risky in this game. Go for the big plays and don't worry too much about survival maybe? I don't know if this is a thing but perhaps we could get some discussion on it.

 

Considering that their communication is tied to the fate of the Seon Holders, I wouldn't be surprised to find that they have one. That said, even if they don't, I don't know if we want them standing out too much either. I could see the Cultists wanting to preserve them for as long as possible if they found a Seon Holder. 

Personally, I think we should all be playing like our individual survival isn't an issue, but that's just me. As I've said before, there's typically some players who wind up surviving a game by doing absolutely nothing the entire game, so I just don't count survival as that high of a priority. I'd rather see whatever side I'm on at the time win. 

 

[Clanky]

 

 

Considering that their communication is tied to the fate of the Seon Holders, I wouldn't be surprised to find that they have one. That said, even if they don't, I don't know if we want them standing out too much either. I could see the Cultists wanting to preserve them for as long as possible if they found a Seon Holder. 

Personally, I think we should all be playing like our individual survival isn't an issue, but that's just me. As I've said before, there's typically some players who wind up surviving a game by doing absolutely nothing the entire game, so I just don't count survival as that high of a priority. I'd rather see whatever side I'm on at the time win. 

 

 

I think it is highly likely that the cultists have a Seon holder considering that is the only role they can have other than the Rulo

[Metacognition]

I think it is highly likely that the cultists have a Seon holder considering that is the only role they can have other than the Rulo

 

Wait, why are those the only two roles that they could have? I'm still not even willing to put it past them to not have a Soldier, since voting is done via PM and we could fool them into protecting someone else on their team and then have the votes be for their Soldier instead.

 

Clarifications:

Any role except "Follower of the Mysteries" can be on any team.

Soldier's come before the lynch and therefore can protect from it.

[Clanky]

Yes but why would they need a priest of Jesker? I suppose a soldier could work but if the cultist soldier only protects themself then they are guaranteed never to die and can win automatically.

[Elkanah]

 

Honestly, you're probably my biggest suspect right now then. You ask for people's opinions and reasoning for a Day 1 lynch, but provide no reasoning for your own position. You're preaching peace ever since your very first post (seems a little overboard to me) and yet you claim you want to vote. You constantly ask for everyone else's thoughts while providing little of your own. You try to down play the suspicion I already directed towards you by trying to make it all about the jests of you eating the stew. 

I think Meta is just mad that Creccio ate all the stew. 

 

Seriously though, I probably will be voting for Creccio today.

 

As for the Seon holders, It almost seems like they benefit the traitors more than they benefit us. If the traitors can't PM to coordinate kills or blocks or whatever else they have a severe handicap. They either have to start speaking a language from star wars in thread or find another way to code their moves.

 

Edited because I need to learn how to spell

Edited November 24, 2015 by Elkanah