Quick Fix Game 11: Cultists in a Snowstorm

[Creccio he/him]

Merad needs that stew to hide the fact that he's eating all of you!

 

I ate all the stew already. im fat and happy

[Clanky he/him]

Well if you keep stealing all the stew then soon you'll be fat, happy and dead!

[Creccio he/him]

Well if you keep stealing all the stew then soon you'll be fat, happy and dead!

 

I will die a happy man with stew in my belly!

 

Now, seriously, I am a good guy,, I just like stew.

 

My two suspicions are Hellscythe and Elkanah and I wouldnt be surprised if one of them IS a Cultist.

 

Scythe based on his activity on other games and lackthereof here

 

Elkanah for jumping on my wagon really... i cant explain it but yea...

[Clanky he/him]

I don't think Elkanah would jump on so early with so little reason if he were a Cultist but I have been known to be wrong occasionally. Hellscythe on the other hand was here and posted a joke and then disappeared. 

 

EDIT: Thanks for correcting me Creccio

EDIT2: Colour

Edited November 24, 2015 by Clanky

[Creccio he/him]

I don't think Elkanah would jump on so early with so little reason if she were a Cultist but I have been known to be wrong occasionally. Hellscythe on the other hand was here and posted a joke and then disappeared. 

 

I believe Elkanah is a He*

 

And well, votes are sent via pm, He could be faking us right now but I doubt that.

 

Other than Scythe who else is on your list clanky?

 

Right now I only got Scythe and Elkanah so not much from me...

 

Also whoever the scanner of this game is please check METACOGNITION why? same reason as to why check Adavantos on LG15, they are voices and we have to know if we can trust them.

[Clanky he/him]

Well I can't say I have made a list. In fact I almost never make lists in this game but when I do they are usually abandoned after a few cycles.

 

As for suspicions though I don't have much. It's just the first cycle and not a very busy cycle a that.

[Hellscythe he/him]

ON DAY ONE LYNCHES : 

Considering we have no killing roles and under the assumption that someone dies every night(mr9), it would be in our best interest to lynch someone day 1 because we get one extra mislynch if we do. Why? Let's do a diagram on the thread!

 

9>2START

8>2Day2

6>2Day3 Mislynch

4>2Day4 Mislynch

2>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

9>2START

7>2Day2 Mislynch

5>2Day3 Mislynch

3>2Day4 Mislynch

1>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

In both Scenarios we lose Day 5. But we get an extra mislynch(chance to not lose) in the one where we Day one lynch. This diagram only works on odd numbered player matches, and only if there are no extra killing roles like mistborns. Like this game \

TL;DR Day one Lynch is the most efficient course of action.

 

IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS COOL INFO, I'm going to be voting for Elkanah for giving wishy-washy reads on Creccio and Meta.

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Also guys don't forget to pm your vote! I'm not sure Mail is going to count your vote if you don't.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Kaid he/him]

Checking in. Hello everyone, just wanted to check in. Unfortunately I am at work at the moment so I cannot analyze the thread but I will try and read it and contribute what I can. Hopefully before the day is done. 

[Creccio he/him]

 

ON DAY ONE LYNCHES : 

Considering we have no killing roles and under the assumption that someone dies every night(mr9), it would be in our best interest to lynch someone day 1 because we get one extra mislynch if we do. Why? Let's do a diagram on the thread!

 

9>2START

8>2Day2

6>2Day3 Mislynch

4>2Day4 Mislynch

2>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

9>2START

7>2Day2 Mislynch

5>2Day3 Mislynch

3>2Day4 Mislynch

1>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

In both Scenarios we lose Day 5. But we get an extra mislynch(chance to not lose) in the one where we Day one lynch. This diagram only works on odd numbered player matches, and only if there are no extra killing roles like mistborns. Like this game \

TL;DR Day one Lynch is the most efficient course of action.

 

IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS COOL INFO, I'm going to be voting for Elkanah for giving wishy-washy reads on Creccio and Meta.

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Also guys don't forget to pm your vote! I'm not sure Mail is going to count your vote if you don't.

 

 

I am amazed at the maths... didnt even think about that one.

 

*claps*

[Clanky he/him]

Panda, I noticed your argument for a day one lynch and that you were going to be placing a poke vote. Is that still upcoming?

 

 

IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS COOL INFO, I'm going to be voting for Elkanah for giving wishy-washy reads on Creccio and Meta.

 

_________________________________________________________

 

Also guys don't forget to pm your vote! I'm not sure Mail is going to count your vote if you don't.

 

Everyone's reads are wishy-washy this early in the game. I can guarantee Maill won't count your vote if it isn't PMd in. That isn't a maybe, a vote in thread counts for nothing in this game except for some cool colours.

[Hellscythe he/him]

If it's more maths you want.....

 

9>2START

8>2Day2                 0% chance to get baddie(randomly)

6>2Day3 Mislynch  25% chance to get baddie

4>2Day4 Mislynch  33% chance to get baddie

2>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

9>2START

7>2Day2 Mislynch  22% chance to get baddie(randomly)

5>2Day3 Mislynch  28% chance to get baddie

3>2Day4 Mislynch  40% chance to get baddie

1>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

So Day2 there's a +22% chance in Part B

Day 3 there's a +3% chance in Part B

Day4 there's a +7% chance in Part B

*Note Part B is the one where we lynch day one.

[Creccio he/him]

 

If it's more maths you want.....

 

9>2START

8>2Day2                 0% chance to get baddie(randomly)

6>2Day3 Mislynch  25% chance to get baddie

4>2Day4 Mislynch  33% chance to get baddie

2>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

9>2START

7>2Day2 Mislynch  22% chance to get baddie(randomly)

5>2Day3 Mislynch  28% chance to get baddie

3>2Day4 Mislynch  40% chance to get baddie

1>2Day5 Mislynch LOSE

 

So Day2 there's a +22% chance in Part B

Day 3 there's a +3% chance in Part B

Day4 there's a +7% chance in Part B

*Note Part B is the one where we lynch day one.

 

 

You are doing math based on human action and irrationality. I like it.

 

Also disregarding the conditional probability of lynches being related and the probability of information leak. 

 

Also you didn't eat stew

 

Please don't become a  math major >_>

[Kaid he/him]

Its lynching in a vacuum he's calculating, stating that lynching is always better on the first day than not. The first day is the closest to a vacuum we can get with as little information as has been spread at this point. I think the math falls apart definitely the further along it goes but for now I think its valid.

[Elithanathile he/him]

This might not exactly be the place for this, but I don't seem to be getting email notifications from the 17S anymore, and I didn't change anything. Are you guys receiving them just fine? Is it a server-wide thing or just my computer? Any ideas on how to fix it?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just over a half hour left!

[Clanky he/him]

This might not exactly be the place for this, but I don't seem to be getting email notifications from the 17S anymore, and I didn't change anything. Are you guys receiving them just fine? Is it a server-wide thing or just my computer? Any ideas on how to fix it?

 

I don't know about anyone else but my email notifications have been working. I would ask over in 17th shard discussion in the tech support forum.

[Creccio he/him]

This might not exactly be the place for this, but I don't seem to be getting email notifications from the 17S anymore, and I didn't change anything. Are you guys receiving them just fine? Is it a server-wide thing or just my computer? Any ideas on how to fix it?

 

Maybe you clicked restore to default on your setting? Or maybe your email black listed 17S for some reason

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Cycle is over! I'll post the writeup soon. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Cycle 2:

Meallin wasn’t happy. Aside from a few of the traders, everyone else decided not to take matters into their own hands, preferring to leave the knives for later. Kayana. Meallin was about to storm back in and steal the knife himself when voices called out against Inor Haze. The man had said he wanted to eat all the soup, and so a couple of the more hungry traders came toward him, danger in their eyes. Ratel and Jain got in front of them, holding Locke and AL back from Inor. “No, he’s right,” Ratel said. “We don’t need to kill anyone yet. The Jeskeri will do that for us. Let’s leave everyone alone for today.”

The others grumbled, but eventually, left Inor alone, as well as the others. They mumbled amongst each other, eventually all heading to their separate rooms to retire for the night. Meallin himself went out to the dining room and cleaned up the utensils and dishes they had neglected to clean. As he did his duty, he heard grunts from outside the back door.

Meallin ran and threw the back door open to find Merad being surrounded by hooded figures. Knives gleaming, they converged on him. Meallin cried out and the figures turned, seeing him for the first time. Some of them came toward him. He ran back inside, cowardly leaving Merad out there to die. He slammed the door and yelled for help. a handful of the traders ran to help him, but by the time they opened the door again, Merad was the only one there, the hooded figures absent. Merad was breathing heavily, frightened by the scene he had just been in.

“There...was a...Jindo man. He saved me,” Merad stammered. Ah, one of those. Meallin was relieved. He had heard the rumors of the Jindoeese’s talent in combat and was glad there was one in the outpost with them. When he brought Merad back inside, he noticed a message scrawled on the table:

“Adfasjcaweroqcuvsefladaschgeroqiegascadfejfrgqiwruqjhsbfadjsfbahdfgaljdbclz
xjcbajdfaljsrgquywrqpifadihasdjfbajsfbqpwuiryqepufasjdbclxjcbaljgfqwurqwqerqhpsu
hfasivhasjhdpqwfrpfaifhaspdiahsdpiwhdqw.”

What kind of unholy script was that? One of the more kayana folk must have written it. He cursed the rulo to Doloken.

Now he’d have to spend the rest of the night cleaning. Where did that Lord Ostrich and Seixa go?

No one was lynched and no one died! Merad Donner was attacked, but didn't die!
Votes:
Lord Ostrich Malescei Tekiel (1): Kaloo(Lopen)
Inor Haze (Creccio) (2): AL(Elkanah), Locke Tekiel(Orlok)
Jain (Lightsworn Panda) (1): Claan(Clanky)
AL (Elkanah) (1): Hellscythe
No death (2): Jain, Inor Haze

Ostrich and Phatt never showed up and have 1 day more before they die.
Time remaining in cycle:

 

http://www.pending.me.uk][/url]

Player List:

 

1. Hellscythe: ???
2. IrulelikeSTINK: ???
3. Alvron: Ratel
4: Orlok: Locke Tekiel
5: Bridge Boy: Aim
6: Venture Mistborn: Alexanderand
7: Metacognition: Merad Donner
8: Ostrichofevil: Lord Ostrich Malescei Tekiel
9: Creccio: Inor Haze
10: Kaid: Delen Valavan
11: Bort: Borter Clams
12: Phattemer: Seixa
13: Shallan: Citona Vinid
14: Clanky: Claan
15: TheMightyLopen: Kaloo
16: Lightsworn Panda: Jain
17: Elkanah: AL

Edited October 29, 2016 by Alvron

[Alvron]

Huh.  Maill, is no vote a valid option for lynches?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Huh.  Maill, is no vote a valid option for lynches?

Yes, it is. If you vote for no death, that is valid. Someone not voting does not count toward that total.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Mailliw73

[Creccio he/him]

I feel that i should have shared the soup with a soldier or two... but its MY stew, no one eats Inor's stew

[phattemer]

Eh? What happened? I was asleep, and then it started getting cold...

[Hellscythe he/him]

So Metacognition is proven. That is all that has changed.

 

Also Creccio I showed you the maths why did you vote for no death D:

Edited November 25, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Creccio he/him]

So Metacognition is proven. That is all that has changed.

 

Also Creccio I showed you the maths why did you vote for no death D:

 

I am a math major (econ too) and i dont believe in your maths. You also tried to math me into giving you stew in PM so no-no

 

Also, I got saved, again, thanks to friendly soldier for your services, you can have 1% of my stew