Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Dalinar Kholin]

My gut says Rath was good, sort of makes me annoyed I wasn't on last day cylce (sorry, busy with irl things) but we'll see how he flips.

Soft Clears: Fifth, Sart, Myself.

Anyone else soft cleared in your mind?

I really don't know what to make of Walin, he isn't being helpful, maybe we should just lynch him? It could be a weird strategy, I'm not sure. Have people played games with him before? Is his current playstyle reasonable for him as a villager?

Edit 1: Add Snipexe to the soft clear list as the giant.

Burnt I'm suspicious of for suggesting we lynch the giant, it seems like a way to make the village waste time.

Elandera I'm neutral right now.

Straw and Walin are my top lynch targets. I suspect one of them is an elim.

Edited June 27, 2018 by Dalinar Kholin

[Steeldancer he/him]

The night is over! The day should be up soon.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Day Nine: As You Wish

"11 people left alive. The pirates had started off with almost 30 people. And there were still guards hiding among them. How could this be?"
"How could it be? Because they're awful at remembering who they actually sailed with, because they're all asleep!" Alvron yawned. 
"Hm, if this story keeps getting longer, I might just have someone else finish it up. Hopefully they'll resolve their memories by then," Steel said, also yawning. "In the meantime, Reginald Canuk got murdered."
Alvron looked at his fingernails. "They should push him into a dark, dank pit."
Steel thought for a moment, then shrugged. "As you wish. They pushed him into a dark, dank pit. Reginald didn't like it very much."
Alvron raised an eyebrow at his grandfather. "I doubt anyone loves being pushed into a dark dank pit."
Grandpa Steel thought for a moment. "What if he got pushed in by a pretty guard?"
Alvron frowned. "Not everyone is driven by a pretty face, and I doubt Humperdinck hired girls for his guards."
Gramps pursed his lips, considering. "Whatever. He got murdered, and I'm running out of creative ways to murder people."
Alv grinned at that. "I think I might be able to generally help you out with that. Oh, and now there are only 10 people left."

Dalinar Kholin has been attacked! He is Mostly Dead. 
Rathmaskal is totally dead! He was a Pirate with Rum. 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)  Prince's Guard

3. Manukos

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Pirate with a Parrot

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Drake Marshall Pirate

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins) Pirate with a Parrot

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q) Pirate with Rum

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo) Pirate

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk) Mostly Dead

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) Pirate with a Dagger

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val) Man in Black/ Pirate

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)  Prince's Guard

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Elandera

24. Burnt Spaghetti

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)  Pirate

27. Rathmaskal (Rath) Pirate with Rum

Today's Fashion is "As you wish." I'm kind of running out of fashions from the movie, so this will be the last movie one. Hereafter, it'll be general humor related fashions. As always, stay active, and have fun. 

[Sart he/him]

Well, that didn't go well. I should have voted on Straw. Yes Randuir voted on him, but that could have been distancing.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Well, that’s my bad, Rath. To be fair, driving and joining a mislynch was easier than using a kill outright, given that you were under pressure. Bussing Rand may or may not have been wise, but it certainly worked, and I’m very regretful and sad that my team is losing at this point but I feel like I’ve played this as best I could. I was doing well cycle five when Rand got lynched, and the distancing was thorough enough that the accusers never really came under suspicion, until there were no more mislynches to jump on that could easily be led. So now one must be created, if the Elims are to win. Snipexe. The Rath lynch was my last link to logic, and it is snapped. 

(I’ll get a real vote down later once I figure out which lynch candidates are villagers)

[Elandera she/her]

Alright, I'll be voting on Manukos for now. I may decide on a different person sometime later in the cycle.

My ability to analyse has been significantly reduced for the next couple of days, so I may end up just bandwagoning things.

EDIT: Wait.. Fifth are you admitting to being Elim? Your last post is a bit confusing. I still would have thought you a well meaning, though slightly crazed villager.

Edited June 28, 2018 by Elandera

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

12 minutes ago, Elandera said:

EDIT: Wait.. Fifth are you admitting to being Elim? Your last post is a bit confusing. I still would have thought you a well meaning, though slightly crazed villager.

Am I? Good question. I’ll let you see in the language of that post if you can find anything that looks like a confession. I’m re-examining all the players right now, and will hopefully have thoughts by tomorrow night.

edit: this is me having too much fun with being chaotic good, and I should probably stop. But it’s basically the only thing I can do with my time constraints, so I guess you’ll have to put up with spontaneous!me until three days from now when I can be more active again  

Edited June 28, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Elandera she/her]

6 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Am I? Good question. I’ll let you see in the language of that post if you can find anything that looks like a confession. I’m re-examining all the players right now, and will hopefully have thoughts by tomorrow night.

edit: this is me having too much fun with being chaotic good, and I should probably stop. But it’s basically the only thing I can do with my time constraints, so I guess you’ll have to put up with spontaneous!me until three days from now when I can be more active again  

Chaotic good... Or chaotic evil. That is the question.... But still, I'm inclined to lean village with you, especially since I consider the village to be losing at the moment with so many mislynches and two elims left.

[Elandera she/her]

Lily walked through the empty stone corridors, her boots creating an echo with each step. It sounded like there were a few people walking with her.

And perhaps they were.

"Maybe I could marry Prince Humperdinck. At least he's rich," said Amy Skate, a sly smile forming from Lily's stoic expression.

"Please," responded Kay Oss, Lily's voice becoming slightly raspy, like someone who had inhaled too much smoke. "He needs someone beautiful beyond reason to start the war. It's the only reason he planned to marry Buttercup. And you, my dear, are anything but beautiful. We all know Drusilla is the pretty one."

That one is new, thought Lily as she argued with herself. Or was it old? Very old. 

Amy released a disgusted noise. "Everything is about Drusilla with you. Just because she introduced you to fire. Still, we could at least try to seduce Humperdinck. He's rich, you know."

"Seduce that pompous pig of a man?" responded Lily, derision thick in her voice. "Not a chance. I'd rather seduce a real pig."

"What about the Dread Pirate Roberts? He's handsome and daring."

"He'd be better called Dead Pirate Roberts now," said Kay.

"Oh." Amy thought for a moment before finally responding. Lily was glad for the moment of peace. "Is there anyone we can seduce?"

"No," said Lily.

"What about anyone we can set on fire?" asked Kay.

"No."

"Can we at least kill them?" 

"Fine. As you wish."

-----------

Sorry for the double post. People are too quiet. I'm of a mind to tag everyone who hasn't said anything anytime I post....

But on a serious note, I'm curious about Fifth's statement, so ManukosFifth.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Hi. 

So I’ll pull this up again, except I’ll modify it some more:

Gamestate

10 living players

Walin, manukos, Burnt, Elbereth, Snipexe, Straw, Fifth, Sart, Elandera, Mr Doctor

2 confirmed good

Fifth Scholar, Snipexe 

1 soft-confirmed village

Sart decided to let my paranoia continue

2 village reads of mine

Mr Doctor, Walin

1 confirmed neutral

Elbereth

2 active suspects

Elandera, Sart (kinda)

3 semiactive suspects

Straw, Burnt, manukos

I am now willing to lynch an inactive, based on my suspect list, as I have more inactives than actives on it. If I was careful enough, there should be about a 40% chance of me firing a gun into that crowd and hitting an elim. Since I’m not careful, and I probably let an elim slip through somewhere, there’s more like a 20% chance, in reality. I understand people want to lynch me today; I probably would argue for my lynch if I wasn’t me, and the only reason I’ll oppose it is because the village can’t afford a mislynch right now. I’d again like to apologize to Rath for leading a lynch on him, which was a definite mistake. I wouldn’t kill Sart right now, so I’m probably lynching within [Burnt, manukos, Straw] today, if possible. 

Oh, and something else: we have 7 villagers and 2 Elims alive, with one Neutral Max. Assuming that myself, Snipexe, and every villager reading this is confirmed good, that means that all you villagers out there, you have a 33% chance of hitting an Elim by chance with your vote. If you use logic, the chances are higher. If you burn iced animal crackers and roll a d6, your chances are very high. Either way, choose well, and find the time to analyze since I really can’t at the moment. I will change my vote to Burnt for now. Logic!Fifth out.

[Mr Doctor]

11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

"He'd be better called Dead Pirate Roberts now," said Kay.

The Dead Private Hobbert stuck his head through the door. "Did someone ask for me?"

---

7 hours ago, Elandera said:

Alright, I'll be voting on Manukos for now. I may decide on a different person sometime later in the cycle.

My ability to analyse has been significantly reduced for the next couple of days, so I may end up just bandwagoning things.

Hmm, manukos is a decent choice if we're still lynching inactives. So far, he's posted very little, and this post reflects poorly on him.

Quote

i think i'll go for Jodensu , not that it seems relevant considering the bandwagon on doc (whose lynch i am not oposed to )
tho Jodensu's post made me suspicius of him ,(leaning elim on ppl that are prety much confirmed town ), if not those two then, HH or snipex would be my next guesses 

 - manukos

The people listed here as manukos's suspicions are Jondesu, Doc12, Hemalurgic Headshot, and Snipexe. Of those four, three are confirmed Villagers (on merit of being dead) and Snipexe is mostly confirmed (on merit of his uncontested claim). Now, Jon and Doc12 were both mislynches, which means that manukos was not alone in suspecting them, but these are pretty much all of manukos's suspicions. He has nothing which speaks well of him, and I really don't like the complete lack of voting. Perhaps he's attempting to throw suspicion on specific people but remain in the background to dodge the lynch. People do a lot of vote-reading in this game, so abstaining from voting entirely could very well be a strategy to push people towards certain targets by making it seem as if there was a bandwagon.

I might have caught a bit of paranoia from Fifth, but I really dislike the idea of being subtly pushed against targets, and I'm trying to be vigilant for it. I feel that newer players might be extra susceptible to being persuaded to join lynches if they think that it's common knowledge that someone is suspicious. Naturally, newer players are less confident, so they might jump on bandwagons quicker. I might be overcompensating to avoid this bias, though.

It's notable that manukos mentioned suspicions of Rath, who also turned out to be a confirmed Villager. This hit around the same time as Fifth's theory, and unlike others, he seemed to be thinking that Rath was an Elim, not wanting to vote to get information. And he also didn't vote. Perhaps trying to help Fifth's theory get a bit more credibility. If Fifth flips Elim, I think that manukos is a good target, and vice versa.

Quote

having said that this game as a whole gives me a sense that we have been fooled , that two elims during the lynch voted on eachother so that one of them would be exhonorated for sure
(i might do a deep dive on the last 2 lynches after today perhaps ) 

 - manukos

A potentially innocent statement, but also general enough that it could be made without being backed up, and seems like the subconscious manipulation that can be done saying "we". This post smells of someone trying to look like Village without actually providing much to deconstruct. That, coupled with the fact that manukos hasn't said much, doesn't speak well for him.

His posting record seems to so far be throw suspicion against those who ended up being Villagers, and attempt to subtly convince people that he is Village. And unlike other players, he has no votes to speak of that might vindicate him, on Elims or otherwise. None of this is especially conclusive (which has me wondering if that's the point), but it puts my read a few ticks down, whereas most other players have some redeeming factors.

---

However, there's an elephant in the room. In writing this post I was going to ask why everyone seemed to be ignoring what Rath's flip meant for Fifth Scholar, but Elandera has posted and put an end to that. But I'm still going to speculate.

Fifth's tunnel against Rath and Sart appears to be a complete mislynch. I've developed a feeling over the course of this game that Sart, Rath, and Dalinar all seemed to form a little group of soft-cleared Villagers who mostly supported each other. Initially, I didn't like that Sart's voting pattern looked a lot like efficient bussing, but that really doesn't seem plausible anymore. Dalinar had a virtually impeccable voting record, and had Sart listed as "soft-cleared". Rathmaskal had some black marks against him, such as the vote on Jondesu, but on every point I brought up against him, he defended himself adequately. The fact that Fifth targeted two of them, and then Dalinar died to the Elims last Night, really doesn't speak well to me.

Since I had Rath at a neutral read for the majority of the game, in the end Fifth's theory just wasn't enough to sway me. I was initially surprised that it swayed so many people, but I think I know why it did. Or rather, I have a theory as to why the ostensibly neutral Rathmaskal accumulated enough votes:

It seems that we are in late-game, with most likely only two Elims left. At the time of Day Eight, the most suspicious active players had been removed, and as Elandera has said, everyone seemed to be a mostly Village read, at worst suspicious, but still mostly about the neutral threshold. And yet, we still have to lynch someone every Day, and naturally that lynch should feel like it means something, and not just be a shot in the dark that's more likely to hit a friend than foe. That's why it's so unpleasant to lynch inactives, because there's really nothing to go on other than "they haven't talked". And who wants to lynch someone for the crime of silence?

I've observed that the Village operates under the expectation that there is always a decent lynch target...but sometimes there isn't, or sometimes it's someone who they thought was a Villager. Or sometimes it's you. And that makes people squeamish to set that precedent, even if they're not hugely aware of it. So it's almost a relief when a bandwagon comes rolling along, because it brings direction, and it brings freedom from guilt. You were just going with the bandwagon, so it's alright that the lynch hit a Villager. It's not entirely your fault.

But bandwagons have to start somewhere. In some cases, they're built out of joke votes and misunderstandings. See the Day 1 vote on Araris, where Bugsy made a relatively harmless statement that resulted in a mislynch that removed the two most powerful roles in the game. Sometimes they come out of poke votes. See Elandera's poke of Doc12, which was jumped on by two people very quickly, and turned into the closest thing to a unanimous vote that we've had all game. And sometimes, a passionate enough spokesperson can direct a lynch against someone whom no one suspected all that much. Rathmaskal's lynch was the perfect example of that.

These bandwagons are powerful in times when information is low. The Araris lynch was at the start of the game, when no one knew anything. Prior to Doc12's lynch, the previous two lynches had been on Bort and Rand, both of whom were Elims. That means that the most recently suspicious players are dead, and the other suspicions have been mostly forgotten in the space of two Cycles. So, suddenly no one knows where to go next. And Fifth Scholar's attack on Rath was in a time when we were all reading each other as pretty much being Village, probably not much worse than neutral.

It's not inconceivable that others know that this happens. Since humans can be really good at being followers, a passionate enough person could bring enough votes to their side because, frankly, it's better than a random lynch.

Quote

for the numerous reasons I’ve stated before, Rathmaskal is an Eliminator.

Quote

Wonderful. I’ll give you the chance to bus every teammate of yours. Join me in lynching Rathmaskal, not Elandera.

It's not inconceivable that someone if someone speaks strongly with enough conviction, people will listen, and they are entertaining while they do it, then they will be far more engaging than if they just state their theories. Or, perhaps, if they lay their thoughts out in a memorable and interesting manner.

That's my theory on why these bandwagons succeed, and specifically why Fifth's did. People were able to justify their votes on Rathmaskal because it would provide information. And that's not wrong, because it did! I'm not saying that lynching is bad, but I'm saying that smart lynching and avoiding misled bandwagons is key to maintaining clarity in times of low information. The Elims thrive when the Village knows nothing. I think that this is an example of this.

---

Note that this does not necessarily incriminate Fifth Scholar directly, but the line between his conspiracy theory and an active attempt to pull the Village, which lacked other options, into a lynch against a mostly-neutral is very, very fine. The fact that the bandwagon was against Rathmaskal, a Villager, is what turns it from suspicious into incriminating.

I said here that I was reading Fifth's alignment as Village but it could change with Rath or Sart's flip, and now it has. I suppose there's the argument that it's strange for Fifth to target someone when it could incriminate him, but at this point I think that he's the best choice for a vote. I'm tempted to vote on manukos, but I also said last Cycle that I expected that we'd have enough information to lynch an active, and I believe that this is now the case.

Fifth Scholar, you told me that if you were wrong, you hoped to be lynched into retirement. At the risk of bringing back the Day Six fashion of drama, I have three words for you.

As you wish.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Fifth's tunnel against Rath and Sart appears to be a complete mislynch.

Don’t you go drawing any village lines to Sart, now. He’s a tricky one. 

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

I've developed a feeling over the course of this game that Sart, Rath, and Dalinar all seemed to form a little group of soft-cleared Villagers who mostly supported each other. Initially, I didn't like that Sart's voting pattern looked a lot like efficient bussing, but that really doesn't seem plausible anymore.

Does it really look less realistuc now? We know the Elims have a busier who used vote manipulation, if I’m so evil as you claim. I Daggered Randuir’s vote onto himself. If Sart can use a Rum to kill Elenion and get a free pass, but I can use a Dagger to try to kill Randuir and be strung up, that hardly seems fair. Remember, when I flip village: Kill Sart. (Just kidding, kill the most likely Eliminator. It might be him, though.)

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

The fact that Fifth targeted two of them, and then Dalinar died to the Elims last Night, really doesn't speak well to me.

Does it not? I will hazard a guess that Dalinar was killed last night because he seemed village and was unlikely to draw suspicion or be mislynched. He may have said something inthread or in a PM that set off an Elim. There are many possibilities, and your theory needs confirmation by @Sart before I start trusting it. 

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Or rather, I have a theory as to why the ostensibly neutral Rathmaskal accumulated enough votes:

It seems that we are in late-game, with most likely only two Elims left. At the time of Day Eight, the most suspicious active players had been removed, and as Elandera has said, everyone seemed to be a mostly Village read, at worst suspicious, but still mostly about the neutral threshold. And yet, we still have to lynch someone every Day, and naturally that lynch should feel like it means something, and not just be a shot in the dark that's more likely to hit a friend than foe. That's why it's so unpleasant to lynch inactives, because there's really nothing to go on other than "they haven't talked". And who wants to lynch someone for the crime of silence?

Yep, not arguing with you here. Inactives and semiactives, when lynched, do not feel good when they flip village. So I tend to stay away from them when I have an active player to lynch, because those typically have more points against them. 

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

I've observed that the Village operates under the expectation that there is always a decent lynch target...but sometimes there isn't, or sometimes it's someone who they thought was a Villager. Or sometimes it's you. And that makes people squeamish to set that precedent, even if they're not hugely aware of it. So it's almost a relief when a bandwagon comes rolling along, because it brings direction, and it brings freedom from guilt. You were just going with the bandwagon, so it's alright that the lynch hit a Villager. It's not entirely your fault.

But bandwagons have to start somewhere. In some cases, they're built out of joke votes and misunderstandings. See the Day 1 vote on Araris, where Bugsy made a relatively harmless statement that resulted in a mislynch that removed the two most powerful roles in the game. Sometimes they come out of poke votes. See Elandera's poke of Doc12, which was jumped on by two people very quickly, and turned into the closest thing to a unanimous vote that we've had all game. And sometimes, a passionate enough spokesperson can direct a lynch against someone whom no one suspected all that much. Rathmaskal's lynch was the perfect example of that.

This is all true, and I will not contest anything you said here, other than to point out that bandwagons give places for Elims and semiactives to stick their votes, and hide them. 

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

These bandwagons are powerful in times when information is low. The Araris lynch was at the start of the game, when no one knew anything. Prior to Doc12's lynch, the previous two lynches had been on Bort and Rand, both of whom were Elims. That means that the most recently suspicious players are dead, and the other suspicions have been mostly forgotten in the space of two Cycles. So, suddenly no one knows where to go next. And Fifth Scholar's attack on Rath was in a time when we were all reading each other as pretty much being Village, probably not much worse than neutral.

Also true. I’d say that you and I are the most active analysts still alive, and with both of us feeling pressures on our time we’re able to commit to SE, the overall analysis happening in thread has been significantly reduced. So with less “information” (which is often just less people willing to look at that information), bandwagons flourish. 

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

It's not inconceivable that others know that this happens. Since humans can be really good at being followers, a passionate enough person could bring enough votes to their side because, frankly, it's better than a random lynch.

Quote

for the numerous reasons I’ve stated before, Rathmaskal is an Eliminator.

Quote

Wonderful. I’ll give you the chance to bus every teammate of yours. Join me in lynching Rathmaskal, not Elandera.

It's not inconceivable that someone if someone speaks strongly with enough conviction, people will listen, and they are entertaining while they do it, then they will be far more engaging than if they just state their theories. Or, perhaps, if they lay their thoughts out in a memorable and interesting manner.

These are all true, but again, my case against Rath was supported by what I felt was, at the time, a decent bit of logic, and with my activity dropping I had to resort to drama in place of hard analysis (though you didn’t link the post where I tore apart all of Rath’s posts).

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

That's my theory on why these bandwagons succeed, and specifically why Fifth's did. People were able to justify their votes on Rathmaskal because it would provide information. And that's not wrong, because it did! I'm not saying that lynching is bad, but I'm saying that smart lynching and avoiding misled bandwagons is key to maintaining clarity in times of low information. The Elims thrive when the Village knows nothing. I think that this is an example of this.

Agree with all of this. My issue is not with your logic here, it’s your conclusion. 

 

33 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Note that this does not necessarily incriminate Fifth Scholar directly, but the line between his conspiracy theory and an active attempt to pull the Village, which lacked other options, into a lynch against a mostly-neutral is very, very fine. The fact that the bandwagon was against Rathmaskal, a Villager, is what turns it from suspicious into incriminating.

I said here that I was reading Fifth's alignment as Village but it could change with Rath or Sart's flip, and now it has. I suppose there's the argument that it's strange for Fifth to target someone when it could incriminate him, but at this point I think that he's the best choice for a vote. I'm tempted to vote on manukos, but I also said last Cycle that I expected that we'd have enough information to lynch an active, and I believe that this is now the case.

Fifth Scholar, you told me that if you were wrong, you hoped to be lynched into retirement. At the risk of bringing back the Day Six fashion of drama, I have three words for you.

As you wish.

Lynched into retirement would be fun if I wasn’t village. It might actually be fun anyway. I’m curious as to one thing, though; if I am an Elim, as you say, why would I push so strongly against someone, nearly staking my alignment on it, if Im trying to remain undercover?

edit: Oops, you do bring that up. Well, I’m still curious as to your response, considering that you voted on me regardless. I’m also going to say that when I am lynched, and I flip village, don’t go accusing Doctor for this as the only reason against him. Manukos does seem like an interesting target, actually. 

Edited June 28, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Straw he/him]

Straw (1): Sart

Snipexe (0): Fifth Scholar

Manukos (0): Elandera

Fifth Scholar (3): Elandera, Mr Doctor, Straw

Burnt (1): Fifth Scholar

Fifth Scholar seems pretty suspicious.

[Mr Doctor]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Lynched into retirement would be fun if I wasn’t village. It might actually be fun anyway. I’m curious as to one thing, though; if I am an Elim, as you say, why would I push so strongly against someone, nearly staking my alignment on it, if Im trying to remain undercover?

edit: Oops, you do bring that up. Well, I’m still curious as to your response, considering that you voted on me regardless. I’m also going to say that when I am lynched, and I flip village, don’t go accusing Doctor for this as the only reason against him. Manukos does seem like an interesting target, actually. 

Yes, that's a good point, and it's why I'm not super-convinced that you're an Elim, but it's also an IKYK. You're the most suspicious person at the moment, and I don't believe that I can vote on an inactive given the way that the last Cycle has gone.

The way that this stands, I either vote on Fifth or an inactive, and I'm coming to the conclusion that lynching inactives doesn't really help anyone except for the Elims. It has a higher chance of bringing the Elims one step closer to their win-con than it does hitting an Elim.

[Elandera she/her]

Sorry, Fifth. That was meant as a poke vote to get discussion going.

I can't tie your alignment to Rath being village because if the same had been done to me, I'd be dead already.

I really don't want to lynch another active and good contributor who has been soft-cleared for a while (I can't remember why at this point, but I'll edit in my past reasoning here when I find it). Mislynches happen.

Instead I'll place my vote on Burnt. There isn't anything substantial at this point I can remember, but a gut feeling. I'll try to figure out why later.

[manukos he/him]

i guess i'll go for elandera 
they voted for walin (who i deem vilage) when randuir was on the choping block as well as gut feeling (i know it is not a very good reason ) 

also for whoever asked me the reason i suspected bushing i rly dont know , we have had many of suspects turn innocent and our reasoning for suspecting ppl has become thiner and thinner , (excluding fifth up above , which is possible but it makes me think that he is just having fun by trolling ..... now that i think about it , dissrupting vonversation is a relatively good reason to get rid of smn but /shrug  )
so if they managed to convince us that one of them is village they could ride with the situation , sadly going back to the elim lynches there wasnt anything that would point me in the direction of any one  
unless mr doctor is the one and did the harder bushing ever seen by man , which i find highly unlikely 

 

[Sart he/him]

Let's cut the crazy conspiracy theories for a second. There are 4 living players that voted on an Eliminator. They are Fifth, Mr. Doctor, Straw, and Sart. In addition, there are two role claims that have gone unchallenged. Snipexe is the Giant, and Elbereth is Miracle Max. There are 4 players left who are not cleared in this way. If we assume both eliminators are among them, we have a 50% chance of lynching one. They are:

• Elandera: The talkative one
• Burnt Spaghetti: The one in PMs
• manukos: The bad grammar one
• Walin: The not voting one

So, if there isn't a conspiracy, the odds are in our favor. Of course, this is Sanderson elimination. There could always be a conspiracy, and an Elim might have lynched Randuir. I find it unlikely that myself or Fifth are Elims, since we used our vote manipulation to endanger the lives of our supposed teammates. That leaves Mr. Doctor and Straw. However, they are unlikely to be on a team together as Mr. Doctor was trying to lynch Straw yesterday. Unfortunately, both of them are lynching Fifth, who was the one campaigning for Randuir's death. So, even in a worse case scenario, there should be an Elim in that list. @Straw and @Mr Doctor please move your vote. I really don't think an Elim would knife a vote onto their own teammate.

So, who is the Elim in that list? Well, Straw isn't on that list so he's disqualified. From their voting, we know manukos suspects Elandera, and trusts Walin. Elandera suspects both Burnt and Walin. Burnt said they were suspicious of Walin and Elandera, and trusted manukos. So, if we assume there are two elims on this list, it becomes obvious who is evil. Since all three others suspect or are suspected by Elandera, they can't be an Elim. It would mean their own teammate was against them. Burnt suspects Walin, so they probably aren't on a team together. Thus, there are only two combinations left. Walin and manukos, or manukos and Burnt. In either case, Manukos is an Eliminator.

Of course, that's if there are two Elims in that group. There's always paranoia in these games. There's one thing in particular that's bothering me. Elbereth should have died by now. They haven't been on since June 21st, and their last post was June 15th. @Steeldancer is Elbereth in danger of the filter? @Elbereth have you given up on this game?

Again, my logic isn't concrete. I still have a bad gut read of Straw, even after everything. Maybe Mr. Doctor is fooling all of us. Elandera could be throwing shade on a teammate. However, my logic is sound. @manukos who else do you suspect besides Elandera? @Walin have any thoughts to share with the thread finally? I suspect him of being the other Eliminator, honestly. @Burnt Spaghetti you're tied in the lead for the vote. How will you defend yourself?

And since I've mentioned basically everyone at this point. @Snipexe the Elims might kill you soon, do you have any wisdom before you leave? @Elandera what are your thoughts on manukos? And @Fifth Scholar are you going to trust me for once? It would be nice.

[Elandera she/her]

53 minutes ago, Sart said:

Let's cut the crazy conspiracy theories for a second. There are 4 living players that voted on an Eliminator. They are Fifth, Mr. Doctor, Straw, and Sart. In addition, there are two role claims that have gone unchallenged. Snipexe is the Giant, and Elbereth is Miracle Max. There are 4 players left who are not cleared in this way. If we assume both eliminators are among them, we have a 50% chance of lynching one. They are:

• Elandera: The talkative one
• Burnt Spaghetti: The one in PMs
• manukos: The bad grammar one
• Walin: The not voting one

So, if there isn't a conspiracy, the odds are in our favor. Of course, this is Sanderson elimination. There could always be a conspiracy, and an Elim might have lynched Randuir. I find it unlikely that myself or Fifth are Elims, since we used our vote manipulation to endanger the lives of our supposed teammates. That leaves Mr. Doctor and Straw. However, they are unlikely to be on a team together as Mr. Doctor was trying to lynch Straw yesterday. Unfortunately, both of them are lynching Fifth, who was the one campaigning for Randuir's death. So, even in a worse case scenario, there should be an Elim in that list. @Straw and @Mr Doctor please move your vote. I really don't think an Elim would knife a vote onto their own teammate.

So, who is the Elim in that list? Well, Straw isn't on that list so he's disqualified. From their voting, we know manukos suspects Elandera, and trusts Walin. Elandera suspects both Burnt and Walin. Burnt said they were suspicious of Walin and Elandera, and trusted manukos. So, if we assume there are two elims on this list, it becomes obvious who is evil. Since all three others suspect or are suspected by Elandera, they can't be an Elim. It would mean their own teammate was against them. Burnt suspects Walin, so they probably aren't on a team together. Thus, there are only two combinations left. Walin and manukos, or manukos and Burnt. In either case, Manukos is an Eliminator.

Of course, that's if there are two Elims in that group. There's always paranoia in these games. There's one thing in particular that's bothering me. Elbereth should have died by now. They haven't been on since June 21st, and their last post was June 15th. @Steeldancer is Elbereth in danger of the filter? @Elbereth have you given up on this game?

Again, my logic isn't concrete. I still have a bad gut read of Straw, even after everything. Maybe Mr. Doctor is fooling all of us. Elandera could be throwing shade on a teammate. However, my logic is sound. @manukos who else do you suspect besides Elandera? @Walin have any thoughts to share with the thread finally? I suspect him of being the other Eliminator, honestly. @Burnt Spaghetti you're tied in the lead for the vote. How will you defend yourself?

And since I've mentioned basically everyone at this point. @Snipexe the Elims might kill you soon, do you have any wisdom before you leave? @Elandera what are your thoughts on manukos? And @Fifth Scholar are you going to trust me for once? It would be nice.

Well reasoned. My thoughts on Manukos have run along the lines of me believing at least one of the elims is not super active in the thread. Someone there just enough to stay alive, but not super talkative. Your statements regarding him have helped solidify my gut read on him being elim. So, I will change my vote once again (it's getting kinda ridiculous...) from Burnt and placing back on Manukos.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Let's cut the crazy conspiracy theories for a second

Inconceivable! 

1 hour ago, Sart said:

• Elandera: The talkative one
• Burnt Spaghetti: The one in PMs
• manukos: The bad grammar one
• Walin: The not voting one

 

This summary is beautiful. As a side note, the rest of your narrative is a bit too simplistic I feel, especially since I retain suspicions of Elandera, but I am willing to kill Manukos even if this sudden vote train has made me a bit hesitant. 

1 hour ago, Sart said:

And @Fifth Scholar are you going to trust me for once? It would be nice.

I will never trust you, but I’ll hold off on suspecting you. 

43 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Well reasoned. My thoughts on Manukos have run along the lines of me believing at least one of the elims is not super active in the thread. Someone there just enough to stay alive, but not super talkative. Your statements regarding him have helped solidify my gut read on him being elim. So, I will change my vote once again (it's getting kinda ridiculous...) from Burnt and placing back on Manukos.

So, Elandera, I am getting nervous about you for some reason. Once I get the chance I’ll look into it more, but I just want to note this suspicion for now. 

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

So, Elandera, I am getting nervous about you for some reason. Once I get the chance I’ll look into it more, but I just want to note this suspicion for now. 

Understandable. I have been super indecisive today, haven't had a successful lynch vote yet, and recently have stopped offering analysis. There really isn't a great way to defend myself because I have not done anything yet to earn anyone's trust.

If you have questions about my actions, feel free to ask. I'll try to explain the best I can.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Mm my only comment as to if im suspicious is that i didnt even think of how lynching the giant would be a waste. Was paranoid of it being an elim trying to draw out the real giant. Which isnt impossible. Im still paranoid, but,  not gonna demand anyone try lynch the giant. Was just a thought. Though ill be raising my eyebrows if the giant goes unkilled from a night kill for too long.

Idk tbh. Im just purely paranoid. Elandera and fifth stress me out cause they are talky enough to have the potential of being elims who can lead villagers into killing their own. But are they aftually suspicious? I dont know. I honestlydont pay enough attention to know. Im wary of them, yes, sudpicious, perhaps not. Eithee way, i dunno anythinf othee than i nesd t go to bed atm and so imma shushb and sleep. Figured i should post before bed since been atted a few times or somethinf *rubs eyes

I dunno, im babbling

[Mr Doctor]

I’m a bit confused. Last Cycle there were people keen on voting on Rath “for information”. Well, he was lynched, and now we have information. But no one seems to think that the information is worth anything. Granted, I’ve said that Rath’s flip doesn’t automatically condemn Fifth, but it’s still something, and yet I feel like I’m the only one paying attention to it.

@Elandera, you said that you wanted to lynch Rath because it would give us information, and you couldn’t think of anyone else. And yet, now that Rath has flipped Village, you’re not willing to act on what you learned. There’s an inconsistency there, and I can only see two options:

1. You believed wholeheartedly that Rath was an Elim when you voted, and so didn’t consider what would happen if he was Village.
2. You honestly didn’t know whom to vote on, and so you chose the option that would lynch someone, perhaps in accordance with my bandwagon theory.

If 1 is true, then your statement that you were unsure about voting is false. If 2 is true, then since you really weren’t sure, you should have no qualms about admitting that you were led astray by a potential Elim, and therefore no qualms with voting on Fifth. Your arguments don’t seem to make sense to me. Have I missed something that you can clarify? The only other option I can see is that you do not believe that the information is enough to condemn Fifth.

@Snipexe, you also voted on Rath with the intention of seeing how he flipped, and said that his alignment would define how you thought of Fifth Scholar. Has this happened?

 

15 hours ago, Sart said:

@Straw and @Mr Doctor please move your vote. I really don't think an Elim would knife a vote onto their own teammate.

This is one of the best arguments in Fifth’s favour. Other than the tunnel against Rath and Sart, Fifth has been pretty much clean. I'm starting to agree that it's hard to see how he would suddenly turn around and overtly reveal that he's an Elim. I commend Sart for reaching out to Fifth, who still harbours great distrust of Sart. That is yet another point for Sart. While it’s more than possible for a Villager to be misled, the fact that Sart, who is higher on my Village reads, doesn’t suspect Fifth is definitely something worth considering.

If everyone would prefer to lynch manukos this Cycle, I will not stand in the way. Manukos is my second-highest suspect, but I still think that acting on information may be better than relying on 50% chances. But then again, it isn't a 50% chance for me, because he's already got other suspicions against him.

Alright Sart, because I think that you're Village and I trust your judgement, because Fifth's actions are almost too weird to be an Elim, and because I'm willing to trust the odds: Fifth Scholar, manukos. Once I've observed Fifth some more, I may switch my vote, but given how late it is I may not be up in time for rollover.

However, I still want to know why Elandera and Snipexe aren't paying attention to what Rath's flip may mean. Or if they are, they aren't sharing what they think. This is the worst time for doing that.

[Walin he/him]

I think that given the posts in the last few cycles so far, either Fifth Scholar is an elim, or Mr Doctor is. Or neither.

But their discussion leads me to believe that they can’t both be elims, or else they’d be sabotaging each other pretty badly.

I’ll just toss a vote onto Manukos, because it’s what the majority wishes. And I’d said that I would vote on someone already.

@Sart, I do not have any more info or opinions to share with the thread, but hopefully this is a regular amount.

[Elandera she/her]

21 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

I’m a bit confused. Last Cycle there were people keen on voting on Rath “for information”. Well, he was lynched, and now we have information. But no one seems to think that the information is worth anything. Granted, I’ve said that Rath’s flip doesn’t automatically condemn Fifth, but it’s still something, and yet I feel like I’m the only one paying attention to it.

@Elandera, you said that you wanted to lynch Rath because it would give us information, and you couldn’t think of anyone else. And yet, now that Rath has flipped Village, you’re not willing to act on what you learned. There’s an inconsistency there, and I can only see two options:

1. You believed wholeheartedly that Rath was an Elim when you voted, and so didn’t consider what would happen if he was Village.
2. You honestly didn’t know whom to vote on, and so you chose the option that would lynch someone, perhaps in accordance with my bandwagon theory.

If 1 is true, then your statement that you were unsure about voting is false. If 2 is true, then since you really weren’t sure, you should have no qualms about admitting that you were led astray by a potential Elim, and therefore no qualms with voting on Fifth. Your arguments don’t seem to make sense to me. Have I missed something that you can clarify? The only other option I can see is that you do not believe that the information is enough to condemn Fifth.

@Snipexe, you also voted on Rath with the intention of seeing how he flipped, and said that his alignment would define how you thought of Fifth Scholar. Has this happened?

 

This is one of the best arguments in Fifth’s favour. Other than the tunnel against Rath and Sart, Fifth has been pretty much clean. I'm starting to agree that it's hard to see how he would suddenly turn around and overtly reveal that he's an Elim. I commend Sart for reaching out to Fifth, who still harbours great distrust of Sart. That is yet another point for Sart. While it’s more than possible for a Villager to be misled, the fact that Sart, who is higher on my Village reads, doesn’t suspect Fifth is definitely something worth considering.

If everyone would prefer to lynch manukos this Cycle, I will not stand in the way. Manukos is my second-highest suspect, but I still think that acting on information may be better than relying on 50% chances. But then again, it isn't a 50% chance for me, because he's already got other suspicions against him.

Alright Sart, because I think that you're Village and I trust your judgement, because Fifth's actions are almost too weird to be an Elim, and because I'm willing to trust the odds: Fifth Scholar, manukos. Once I've observed Fifth some more, I may switch my vote, but given how late it is I may not be up in time for rollover.

However, I still want to know why Elandera and Snipexe aren't paying attention to what Rath's flip may mean. Or if they are, they aren't sharing what they think. This is the worst time for doing that.

At the time of the Rath vote, I thought I would have a bit more time to go back and analyse their posts to figure out what who they most suspected and who most suspected them to hopefully get some clues. Unfortunately, I have been incredibly busy working more days in a row than I expected. Also, I don't think I ever said it would give information about Fifth's alignment, just his sanity. I've generally always considered him village.

Number two is closer to why I voted on Rath. I didn't fully believe they were elim, but I hadn't had very good suspicions so far. I was willing to trust Fifth who had previously led a successful lynch. Unfortunately, it was not successful.

[Steeldancer he/him]

The day is over! I’ll get the new night up once I get home from (another) graduation party.