Elbereth
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Everything posted by Elbereth
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Agreed. Add Wilson to the mix, and there's no way it wouldn't get into the 100k range at least.
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Yes. It was very fun. 40,000 words of Joe, Hael, Alv, and me. It was great. There's a reason I want to be an eliminator with Hael for a full game. It'd be amazing.
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Hmm. You may have dented my sanity slightly this game, Alv. Not sure. It was definitely frantic for a while. I am sure that you deepened my paranoia, though. Quite a lot, actually.
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I know... It made my heart hurt to see that doc, just a bit. I like talking. I would have been ridiculously storming angry. That would have been terrible. No.
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I don't know for certain, but very, very little. There were probably a couple of times when I lied in thread about my suspicions, I'm guessing. Other than that? Basically nothing.
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...Very glad I didn't actually try, then. Then I would have been even more exasperated.
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Alv'll link them all eventually, I'm sure. Yeah. It was a bit difficult to work around at times. We probably would've killed him if not for that plan. Glad things turned out the way they did, though. Even if it was only 24 hours, we did get 8.1k words out of that day. It was great.
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Yep. Well, him and Hael and I, eventually. Plus Alv, of course. Ryuk didn't start out knowing our existence.
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They definitely would have. Hael never actually said anything untrue. And I mostly didn't. I may have said things like "I think so-and-so might be Rem", which was a lie, of course. But in general, none of us three lied much at all. (I didn't even lie to Lopen. My slip-up was actually telling him I was a citizen, rather than civilian. And I was. A citizen of another world, sure, but still. Also, props to Lopen for catching that! You were completely right.) That was indeed enjoyable. Although occasionally irritating for us, until we managed to convert Hael. It's at the bottom of the evil doc, now, so everyone can see. Alv. Were there hints in the numbers?
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Realized I forgot to include the spreadsheet. Oops.
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Counts as a win, technically. You got lucky! Well, to be fair, you did have very good reasons to trust us. I'd literally lynched a Holder the day before, and advocated for Joe staying alive the whole time, and whatever else I did that made me trusted. But... well. That trust was unfortunately slightly misplaced. You'll do better next time, I'm sure. Paranoia is the key. Many, many levels of ever-deepening paranoia and mistrust. Ask Alv about it sometime. I'm sure he'd be happy to teach you its value. Or better yet, ask Gamma, since he's back!
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I must say, I most enjoyed this game, and being able to work with both Hael and Joe in the same game. This was a blast, and I'm very happy I managed to pull it off. For what I consider to be my first actual eliminator game, I'm very pleased with what happened. Thanks to everyone who trusted me. Your support was very much appreciated. Props to Bugsy, for handling Hael's accusation of him very well. Congrats to Hael for severely inconveniencing us with the fakeclaiming plan until I converted him. Apologies to Con, for taking advantage of your trust. You did very well for your first game, as did Cloud. Also, props to Sheep for his analysis of me. It was actually quite accurate. Particular thanks to Alv for GMing such a great game (and, as usual, terrifying me in the process...). I particularly liked how not even Ryuk knew everything that was actually going on. Secret roles, when done right as they were in this game, are amazing. Sorry for helping to lynch LUNA. Great game, everyone! I look forward to playing with all of you again!
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Sure. Focusing on a lynch for D1 does make a lot of sense. I look forward to more thoughts later, then. Ah, okay. I still think your use of the argument at all is somewhat suspicious regardless of whether you'd done anything, but I see what you're saying now. You did bring it up, but you didn't actually give your own opinion on it. Which I was going to mention as a point against you, actually, but that point's invalidated now.The biggest problem I see with your suggestion is finding another Shard to give yours to. Shards don't start out knowing other Shards' identities, and they have no reason to share. So I don't know how that'd work. (Plus, it's difficult to guarantee that someone claiming a Shard actually has one, even if you do find one. How do you know you're not just giving it to a 17th Sharder?) Secondly, the whole point of my suggestion was to broaden the pool of people who could have Shards. Your suggestion does not do that, at all. It keeps the same pool of people to target and potentially kill. ...Huh. I hadn't even noticed. Interesting.
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...That's unfortunate.
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I have no idea. I forgot to ask, so I'm rabidly curious to read the Ryuk doc now. Also, thanks so much for locking the doc in midsentence, Alv.
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I can't really argue against that. It's basically what happened. Didn't intend it that way, but it is true. Also a fair point. And it's true that I wasn't really thinking of it in the context of your usual playstyle. It's more that there's been some discussion recently about referencing past games that's changed my perspective on the tactic, so I was reacting against that. It's true that you usually do that, so that does reduce your suspicion a bit for me. Sorry for not being clear about it. Not sure I can explain it any better, though. Sorry. And I must have missed you saying that you don't believe that actually happened? So I apologize for that. Again, I'm not saying that the original thing was alignment-indicative. I'm saying that the "I wouldn't do this as an eliminator" argument is one that I personally feel to be suspicious and much more useful to eliminators. Also, I'm not sure of the bolded part's relevance or meaning. Could you clarify? That is not what I was saying. I was saying that nothing in the post I was responding to had convinced me to change my mind. Your next post, about being an active player, did come closer to swaying me. You are an active player, and it is true that it would be nice to keep you alive for that fact alone. But active eliminators are almost equally bad for the village side as active villagers are for the eliminator team, and I do still suspect you a fair amount given that it's only D1 (although somewhat less than before given your responses). Certainly more than the other two lynch candidates. So it doesn't seem likely that I'll be changing my vote unless something changes. Also, I notice that no one still has said anything about passing Shards, except DC. Thank you, Deathclutch. It is true that not all passing has to happen immediately, but I do encourage it sooner rather than later. More you have your Shard, the more reluctant you'll be to give it away, I think. Anyone else have thoughts? EDIT: Stupid formatting. Also, I completely forgot to respond to one part. I apologize. I did misremember the quote slightly. Although to me, the second part of your statement does imply more of a change than just lynching someone every day. It seems I misinterpreted that, though, so I apologize.
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I can confirm that the fakeclaiming to Joe happened. I seriously doubt he was an eliminator at that point, at least (why involve me in such a scheme at all with no real benefit, if both other people involved are eliminators?), and I'm still more inclined to trust him than you, Bugsy. This does seem like something he would do. He's definitely not Ryuk or Rem now. They'd never do such a thing, I don't think. He could be a Holder, but I am much more inclined to believe him, and I think this is the best chance we have to win.
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You haven't actually been very clear about how you're trying to change your playstyle, actually, only that you're changing it. I don't actually think that's much of a change, either, with you. You'd probably know better than I, though, obviously. Like... Hmm. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that it seems very unlikely for that to have happened. In my experience, eliminator docs are a lot more about chance than that. They don't focus in on every detail of what's said, or give each other advice on who to vote on. It's more big picture stuff, putting suspicion on people or talking about mechanics or mentioning when teammates are acting a bit suspicious. I think it's possible that such a thing could have been suggested in an eliminator doc, but I regard it as quite unlikely. My problem isn't really with the action itself, I don't think? Because I agree you'd do it regardless of alignment. The red flag for me was the comment that "well, wouldn't do this as an eliminator" because you would, just so you could make that argument. Sorry, but my vote's staying. It's not much, and a good deal is gut, but it is more suspicious than anything else I've seen so far, in my opinion. Um, I've contributed, I feel. Just saying. While I think it's an interesting idea, it would almost have to be Cultivation. Otherwise Cultivation could just unshatter that Shard, and the sacrifice would be for nothing. 'Twas me. Kinda sad that no one's said anything about it...
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I'm split evenly between her and Bugsy and Strawman. And Bugsy already had a vote on him, so I decided to add to that. Two votes on a single person is much more useful than one vote on two people. If I had voted on Burnt, she could have just come on and vote for Bugsy and freed herself from the lynch really easily. Bugsy actually had to respond. That said, you've now voted on Burnt, so I could go either way. I'll keep my vote on Bugsy for now, though, because I do want to encourage him to post more. Alias, I stated my thoughts briefly, but basically I'm not getting much of a read on her. Hael mentioned something that makes her a bit more likely to be village, but on the other hand we haven't PMed nearly at all. Which is... unusual. So I'm not sure.
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Aman. This entire paragraph is raising red flags for me. I'll try to explain why, although I may not do a very good job. It's mostly instinct, unfortunately. You're talking a lot about how you've acted in previous games, even though you're also planning on changing your playstyle, which is somewhat contradictory. And I think as a villager you'd be less likely to reference previous games and how you acted in them. Also, just because you're known for advocating that new players be let live (and I'd argue that you aren't really, not more than anyone else who thinks about that kind of thing at all), I seriously doubt the situation you outlined would happen. That's not how eliminator docs work, in my experience (from reading them, obviously, since the only time I was an eliminator was MR11, and I wasn't exactly participating in the evil discussion...). They're much more haphazard. And the "if I were a 17th Sharder/if I were Odium I would just do x" point isn't valid. Of course you wouldn't. You'd do exactly the same thing as you'd do if you were a villager. That's the whole idea of being a successful eliminator. Biggest flag is the reference to how you "usually" play, basically. That seems much more like an eliminator mindset.
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Oh, got it, Sheep. Never mind that, then. Right. So as Hael mentioned, we are at 5:3 right now. Which is really, really tight. The eliminators get a conversion (making it 4:4) plus a kill. Which is 4:3. If we don't lynch an eliminator, we lose the game tonight. If we lynch a Holder, it'll still be tied. So we really need to lynch Rem or Ryuk (whichever doesn't currently have a Holder, probably Ryuk), killing two eliminators at once, in order to have a chance. So, then. Looking at our options. Cloud is fairly cleared in my eyes, with the whole police thing plus Joe's willingness to jump on him. Trelagist is also soft-cleared, although less so. He's probably not Rem, but he could have been converted (or, depending on the timing of when Ryuk claimed, he could be Ryuk). I haven't seen much evidence from Burnt either way. I could see her being Ryuk, potentially. Hael I trust a little bit, based on things that happened in PMs. I think he's going to reveal those today, so I'll let him do that. Sheep... I doubt Sheep is Ryuk or Rem. He could be a Holder, but I don't think he's a shinigami. So I'd vote we don't lynch him today, even if he is a Holder, because we need to focus on the Shinigami now. ThatTiny I have no idea. He's made, what, maybe four posts throughout this game? That's not much to go off of. Could be Ryuk, could be Rem, could be Holder. Same thing with Bugsy. I just can't tell. Looking at that... I guess I'll add some pressure to Bugsy to post.
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Finally here. Sorry I didn't post yesterday. I was busy with real life, as I mentioned in the QF, and I decided to prioritize the QF after that because it actually had turnover last night. But now I have time for both! Yay! I don't see any particular harm or gain in it at the moment. I do disagree with the gain you suggest, because I don't think Seonid would have hand-distributed the worlds. I'm more inclined to think that it was an entirely random distribution, which we can't learn anything from. Also, there were requests for specific worlds, which mess up the distribution of eliminators even if Seonid did try to distribute them equally. I do hope I didn't mess up your (or Kyn's) characters too badly in that writeup. Was going to comment to that effect in LG20, but then I kind of died. I'm not totally sure I understand the benefit to this. Could you elaborate, please? I don't disagree with the idea, to be clear. I just don't get why it's a particularly good idea. I agree with Joe about your second sentence being suspicious there. Reason I quoted this, though, was because Aman is definitely usually around this active. Maybe a bit more than usual? Not much, though. Well, Devotion could be smart and just put two of those people together in a PM. That'd solve the problem, wouldn't it? One other thought. We should probably talk about passing Shards, and whether that's worthwhile. Because Hoid knows the identities of all ten Shards, at the moment. Which is... not good. So passing Shards would rob the 17th Shard of that advantage. The disadvantage, of course, is that you can't know whether you're passing your Shard to a 17th Shard member and totally invalidating the point of passing your Shard. I would tend to say that passing is the better choice, but it'd be nice to hear everyone else's thoughts on that. (Keep in mind that if you are a Shard, Hoid knows that, and if you're publicly in favor of passing your Shard, Hoid's going to know. So be careful.) Question for Seonid: Could Odium/Autonomy/Survival also be a member of the 17th Shard? Edited for spacing.
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...Why the heck would being a murderer make you more likely to get targeted? That makes absolutely no sense. If anything, the eliminators would keep you alive as long as possible, to provide cover for them (since you scan as Guilty) and even potentially get suspected for scanning as Guilty. And they'd be much more likely to want to convert you, too, if you did start out as innocent, because you'd have the cover of being a Murderer since the beginning of the game. And you even told Joe your role. If you weren't an eliminator to start with, I'd say you have a high chance of having been converted since then. I'm definitely in favor of lynching Rae this cycle, now. EDIT: Ninja'd by Hael. Oops. My skills are slipping...
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I'm back! And I got an Honorable Mention in my math competition! Right. So there's been less talking today than normal, which is a little sad (although unsurprising with LG21, of course). But unlike LG21, we have turnover in 2 hours, and we need to figure out who we're lynching. Comments: Sheep, your comment about how the fakepeek strategy would help the eliminators is interesting. Particularly given that in the Championship, the person to suggest them was in fact an eliminator... That said, I do have good reasons to trust Hael, which are more telling than this. Still, it's a good thought. Strawman. That list and nice and all, but again, it'd be nice if we had reasoning behind it. It seems fairly random if you just put it out there. For instance, you say that Burnt and Hael are both difficult to read, and from that you produce very different conclusions with no explanation given. Or, perhaps, because he's Australian and went to bed. He'll probably be on soon, though. Also, a thought I had. Looking back through the cycles, we've never had a murderer kill. Not one. We thought Meta was for a while, but Alv confirmed that was just a mistake. And Luna killed Aman. So... where are the murderers? My best guess is that Alv didn't put any in. Which makes perfect sense, since it'd be perfect cover for the serial killer to kill without anyone suspecting it. And that explains why Corrupt Police Officers had to be in the game, to balance out L's scans. Since the Murderers wouldn't be there to scan as Guilty, that is. And thus... how is Rae a Murderer? One who's never even had the kill, to boot? So... I do have some reasons to trust Rae, but I think this is likely enough that it at least deserves a vote for now. Sorry, Rae.
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I'd like to request a name change to Tindomë, please.
