Sart

If Aman truly was the informant, then we almost can't win. We would have to kill both Stick and Drake via the vote. That's two cycles of free potshots for them. Then, once both of them are dead, the Insider has the power of the kill, and can immediately kill the Contact. We'd only have 1 cycle to find the Insider and kill them. However, I highly doubt Aman was the Informant, he swung the vote to try and prevent this current scenario. By limiting them to shooting outside of the doc, we've created a scenario where they can't kill the informant, who I'm presuming is Stick. Even if the Contact dies, they can't win, because the Informant is still alive. Their night kill won't work, and barring the scenario of Contact vs Informant vs Normal Elim, they can't use the vote either.

Drake is unfortunately right that we have an odd number of players. In the extremely rare case in which the Insider is the last person outside of the doc, then the Insider and Drake could vote out Stick, and then win the game. Hence, 8 chances. I will also note that since the Elim kill doesn't function on the Insider, we could use that as a scan. Of course, Drake would be submitting a different order than Stick, but it would narrow down the options to just 2 players if someone doesn't die.

I mean... I've kind of become convinced that our best strategy is to kill all Villagers. Barring the case where Aman was the Informant, that guarantees a Village win. It would require all of us to give our lives, but it makes the question of who the Contact and Insider are completely irrelevant.

Right. If Aman was the Informant, we are in a very awkward position. However, given his extremely odd vote maneuver at the end of the cycle, I doubt that is the case. If Stick is the Informant, as I suspect, our optimal strategy is to kill everyone besides Drake and Stick.

Yep. That's the math as I see it. Well, time for a bloodbath.

I believe, as they say, that the game is afoot. Neil the Beguiled I saw you lurking during that crazy rollover.

That's the idea. If you're telling the truth, you've prevented this worst case scenario. All you have to do is vote outside of the doc from now on. Outside votes trump inside votes, so Drake can't kill you. I can't trust you fully, so I'm not voting for Drake. Switch your vote to Amanuensis. Faerie Braids. That way the kill never falls into the Insider's hands.

In my view, letting the Elim doc go to one member is a losing proposition for the Village. Letting the Elim doc have two members? Now that's a winning proposition. I can almost imagine the paranoia. Sure, Aman might have been the Informant. But what if you're wrong? The doc would just be Stick and Drake getting to unhealthy levels of suspicion. They couldn't kill themselves, because that would give the Informant complete control. Wait no. Tied votes kill both if it's inside the doc. Then the Informant gets the kill, and wins. This game always ends on Cycle 3. I'm mad at myself for approving this game, this doesn't seem fair.

So, two of three elims have confirmed that Aman is dying tonight. If Aman does not die, he and Stick are confirmed to be lying, and thus must both be evil. Also Proving Drake is the Informant as well. Let's play out the scenario where Aman dies, and we kill Stick or Drake with our vote. In either scenario, we only have two shots to kill the Insider. Let me break it down: 1/3 Chance: The Informant has not died. The Insider kills the Informant on Cycle 2, then the Contact on Cycle 3. We have two cycles to kill the Insider. 2/3 Chance: The Informant has died. The last Elim kills themself. The Insider kills the Contact on Cycle 3. We have two cycles to kill the Insider. Conclusion: This scenario sucks for us. I propose we kill neither of the outed elims, in order to maximize our chances of killing the informant. Therefore: Faerie Braids

Right then. That's enough out of you three. @|TJ| What happens if the Informant is the only player left in the elim doc, but the Insider is still alive? Who has access to the night kill?

No no no. You're supposed to claim normal villager in this situation. Smh. Well, since you've decided not to do that. What's the vote count in the doc?

Let's assume, for a second, that you are telling the utter truth. You are in fact the Informant, and are going to die today. How does the Village win in this situation?

Would you two mind sticking to a consistent story please?

Sure honey. For the record, where do the votes stand in your doc?

Oh boy. I get here, and there's already three elim claims. Joy. Barring any gambits, the village is in a hellish situation. Let's assume for sake of argument, that Drake and Aman are actually evil. Let's say we vote out Drake, and Aman dies in the night. Then we vote out Stick as the last claimed member. They kill a Villager, or hit the Insider, not killing them. Either way, Cycle 3, the Insider has access to the kill, and wins the game, unless we somehow manage to vote them out on Cycle 3. That being said, this reeks of a gambit. Aman and Drake claiming something suspicious? What are the chances?

I'm certainly in. Signing up as Sam.

Speaking of running games, what is the next type of game to be ran? I can theoretically run my Tress Long Game, but I want to make sure that we're supposed to run a Long Game next.

Sirta was reasonably sure the town was doomed. If no one besides the Spiked were voting, that would be the end of them all. He lodged a vote at Pending . "Congratulations sir, you've effectively managed to kill any vocal players."

Sirta had to examine the facts. There were only six people left alive, and somehow there had been two Thug claims. He knew, of course, that he was not a Thug. As he had bloodily demonstrated, he was a Coinshot. Despite his survival in the Night, Rem had not claimed to be a Thug, and instead was claiming Lurcher. Furthermore, Pending had claimed to be a Seeker, but had admitted that was rubbish. If Pending had claimed Thug before that gambit, it would have greatly harmed the ruse. It was still technically possible, but unlikely. Furthermore, they had to have a Tineye among them, or else the messages would not go through. Didn't that fill in the role list though? One Coinshot, one Lurcher, two Thugs, one Tineye, and one fake Seeker. He supposed Pending could actually be the Tineye, but it didn't quite fit. The message was extremely short, not fitting with Pending's grandiose style. One way to confirm it though. @DrakeMarshall Are you the Tineye? If not, who is? The other two would then be our Thug claims.

"Are you rusting kidding me???" Sirta angrily chucked his beer at the lord. "I was trying to keep a low profile, in order to get the Spiked to hit a Thug! I was planning on revealing my misdeed eventually but instead you completely derailed the conversation before I even had a chance! I'm now in danger of dying, you're in extreme danger of dying, and you're trying to swing the vote to someone who was already in the lead before you intervened. If you really are a villager, I leave my vote on you in protest!"

"Be a little realistic here. Even with two Thugs on the Village side, a three man team with two extra kills would be hideously unbalanced. Supposing I am evil, which I am emphatically not, a two man team would be dangerously liable to swings with a 'Village' Seeker in play. A three man team should be under-powered compared to the Village, considering that it violates the one-fourth rule. An extra kill is a big buff."

"Right then. More analysis is required. If I die and the worst case is true, then it may come to naught, but I must do what I can." "There are eight people left alive. I know I am good. Unless he is pulling an extremely odd gambit, I know Pending is evil. However, he cannot be acting alone. I have a suspect pool of six." "First, let me examine Rem. This gambit only works if it is a Thug and Coinshot pair as our Spiked, or if there are three Spiked. In the case of two Spiked, Rem's survival is an impossibility. Thus, I can only consider him as a member of a group of three. In that case, why go through a false attack gambit? It would be exceedingly risky, and for what? They could have much more easily put the town in a do or die situation. Why bother with two gambits in a row? While I cannot discard the possibility of this, I find it highly unlikely. Rem is most likely a Villager. @Ookla the Paradigm I urge you to change your vote." "Then, based on the results of Day 1, that would put Dasenk in a harsh negative light. After all, he was the tying vote that spared Lord Pending. While I want to believe in his innocence, solely based on the outcome of the dream, I find it hard to dismiss the evidence against him. It is almost so suspicious that it becomes not suspicious. He's most likely Spiked, but part of me still wants to trust him. @Ookla thePresentParticiple you stand allied with me currently. Given Pending's outlandish claim, do you still feel the same?" "Furthermore, what of Sonoluminescence? If Dasenk was Spiked, then surely Sono was innocent. There were no guarantees of this though. He would curse the town's luck if they managed to get two Spiked on the chopping block, and failed to execute either of them. Considering that Sono had voted on Pending, it seemed likely that the man was a Villager. @Ookla the Resolute I do have a question for you. Have you claimed to anyone that you've used your vial? I suspect the Spiked would not pull this gambit if protection was left unaccounted for." "I worry I grow paranoid. I should immediately mark Onon as Villager, since he was the one most adamantly arguing against Lord Pending. However, I cannot help but see him in an ugly light. To perform this gambit, the Spiked would need to know everyone else's role, or actually have a Seeker. I'm not sure, but I suspect only Onon would have that information. On the other hand, perhaps there were incredibly loose lips around, and Pending himself could have pieced it together. I jot Onon down as a villager, reluctantly. @Kasimir in this life I am on the village's side, but just as in the dream, I ask you to change your mind." "Finally, that brings me to the two quiet ones among us. If the Spiked needed to make a perfect picture to deduce my role, they would need a claim from one of them, if not both. Jorrick, despite not often participating in the public square, was known to chatter away in private conversations. If Pending or someone else asked to swap roles, he could believe the man would do a trade. He did not think the same of Rilla, though. The woman was a stranger to most here. If Rilla was Spiked, then there would be no gap in knowledge for the Spiked though, since she would share freely with her teammates. Thus, he suspected Rilla was Spiked, and Jorrick was Village. @JNV and @QuirksliverThis is do or die. Everyone needs you to vote." He paused for a breath, trying to collect his thoughts. He had implicitly assumed that the Spiked had no Seeker. That was not the case in the dream, but would it be the case here? A Seeker on the side of the village would be very advantageous, but a Seeker who was Spiked would be much less powerful. In a three man team, it was possible. He didn't love the repetition though. He would suspect a Lurcher instead, given that he could have shot a Spiked. "If I'm to make an outlandish guess, let me do it now. This is born out of paranoia and fear, but it may be my final hypothesis. I suspect a three person team of Onon, Pending, and Rilla. Futher, I suspect Rilla to be a Lurcher. On the village's side, I fear Sono was telling the truth, and that they protected Onon last night. I believe that Rem protected themselves last night. Further, I suspect Dasenk to actually be a Village Thug, and Jorrick to be our Village Tineye. If I die, may Preservation hold me in his arms."

"Let me do the math for a second. There are currently eight of us. Let us assume two Spiked, with Pending as a Thug. In that case, it would be 6 v 2 today. I die due to a fake Seeker claim. It is 5 versus 2. Someone else dies to the Night kill. It is 4 villagers against two Spiked. Naturally, the village votes out the fake Seeker claim, but he survives due to his extra life. It stays 4 to 2, but then another dies in the Night, bringing it to 3 to 2. Then Pending would finally die, bringing it 3 to 1. Another Night kill, and we're at 2 to 1. That's not a guaranteed win, and makes me question this. Perhaps if Pending had a Coinshot as his partner, but even then, that's still a gamble with potentially some protection from Lurchers and Thugs out there." "The worst case scenario is far simpler. There are three Spiked, and Pending is presumably not a Thug. Then the math gets much more tight. It would be 5 v 3 today. Again, I die to a fake Seeker claim. It is 4 v 3. They are able to successfully kill in the Night. It becomes 3 versus 3, and with ties not resulting in any death, they roll over to an easy victory. In that scenario, I fear any form of last minute swing, with someone saying they support me, before stabbing me in the back at the last second." "The choices are now far narrower. Choose me, or choose Pending. One of us is certainly lying, and it is not me."

"Correct. Considering the dream we had where the Spiked had a Seeker, I highly doubt his claim. Frankly, I don't think there is any Seeker in this village. They've merely outed me based on process of elimination. I would chastise the rest of you for loose tongues in your private messages, but it appears the point is moot. Furthermore, considering the risk inherit in this sort of play, I suspect Lord Pending is burning Pewter."

Sirta abruptly sobered up. He glared at Lord Pending. "Coinshot? Yes. Spiked? No." This was not how he envisioned this reveal going. "I must admit, I'm curious about this gambit. If you're trying to draw a reaction out of me, congratulations, you succeeded. Now retract your false claim. If you're incapable of doing that, then I must assume that the Spiked believe they win if they win this vote."