Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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This summer I embarked to a project to log all of my SE games, since I was coming up on 100 games. Now, 4+ months later, my personal spreadsheet is done! I had a blast going back and rereading (or at least skimming) all of these games, and would highly recommend players to go back and reread their own older games, and some of the more iconic games that they might not have played in. I was kind of amazed at how many wildly different (and quite often broken) rulesets we have played with, and was somewhat inspired to try and think up my own overly complicated ruleset. Now that I've started GMing, who knows? I made notes of many of my favorite moments in the spreadsheet, and I found a couple of my own quotes regarding the meta that are worth remembering: From AG 6: From LG 68, in a PM with Kas: And this isn't a quote, but starting with LG 50, I explicitly ignored all the inactive players when doing my analysis, and this was where I first felt like I really was playing well as a villager. In terms of the actual numbers, I'm not sure that the percentages mean a whole lot, given the number of imbalanced games involved. But if they are significant, I'm clearly total garbage at MRs, and happy with where I fall on the other types of games. I'm currently in the middle of my longest losing streak , which is about to catch up to my longest evil streak. And @Quintessential destroyed what could have been an 11 game survival streak, with a C1 kill no less . We also need to run a QF faction game, a QF with neutral roles, and a free-for-all MR so that I can get rid of the divide by 0 errors . And I have some associated RP I started that I'll post underneath here whenever I get around to writing it. Possibly accompanied by a ruleset.
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At this point, I'd say go ahead. But make sure your game can handle being run at 8-10 players.
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I think @|TJ| should pick between running a LG or a QF (or both I guess if he wants), and then we can go from there and figure out who's running the other game. Edit: Reading through some of the games, and following my suggestion about rulesets that would be easy for a GM to run quickly, I think QF33 is a good candidate. It's not a standard elimination game, but it seems like it would work fairly well with the number of players we've been having recently, and it would be a decent introduction to the community for new players since the burden of analysis isn't quite as strong. It would require some spreadsheet savvy to run, but I think there is decent documentation in the spreadsheets themselves.
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It depends on the format being run. LGs are 48/24, MRs are usually 48, but sometimes 24/24 I think, and QFs are just 24.
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I mean, we did some of that this game . I’m pretty sure I was filling Wilson’s shoes this game, except I didn’t need help from Claincy to doom the village.
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Oh yeah, I like in the dead doc how Archer was extremely convinced that I was elim all of this game. Another note, when I mentioned that AG1 and AG2 are good games to read, I stand by that. The Tyrian Falls games are some of the best games we have run, in terms of the core mafia experience, and I think they touch on some things important to the current meta. While only a couple of the players are still around, those games have our "standard" rules that are still in the back of everyone's minds. There's also a lot more fun RP to read than there has been recently, for those who enjoy that.
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So yeah, good game to all the elims! We only ever had votes on one of you, and that was partly from TJ trying to bus, so I'm not even sure if it counts. And thanks to @Matrim's Dice for running again, I had a lot of fun totally not helping the village at all. I'm kinda glad the elims killed me off at the end there. I obviously need to change something about my strategy, because I have a 4-game village loss streak right now...
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Me too man, me too.
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While it is true that I have a ~64% chance of having randomly voted village twice, that doesn't say anything about my alignment. You are assuming that the remaining 36% must make me elim, but I don't think that follows. You need to take into account what the odds are that elim!Araris would vote for villagers twice, which I don't think you can quantify (I certainly can't).
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What, in your opinion, has Mage done that is villagery?
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What Mage says when he votes for me: The fact that I've voted out 2 villagers in a row just means that I've been stumbling around in the dark as much as anyone else. My playstyle is to be involved, and to try and have my vote matter every day. Since I'm working with limited information and there is only 1 elim for every 4-5 starting players, I don't think it's unreasonable that I miss a couple times in a row. With regards to what Mage and Tani have said particularly, I've responded to that; in essence I think their statements were exaggerations or just false. Tani retracted on me after I confronted her, and Mage backed off as well.
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I have stated my suspicion of Mage prior to this cycle, so my vote is definitely not just based on convenience. Also, there's only one vote on me, and Mage placed that. So I'm pretty sure you could suggest any alternative that Mage would agree with, and that should be fine with you since you apparently read Mage as village.
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It's been a while, and this is a separate thought, but I agree with TJ about Mage. This is sort of a retaliatory vote in the sense that I think Mage is using the same elim logic that was used to exe me in the LG.
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I guess if you want to look at LG 81, you will see that the village voted village!me out on LyLo for pretty similar reasons; I was active and voted on all of the successful executions, which all happened to be village. Edit: Anyone considering voting for me this cycle, please go read the last day of LG 81, and see if your logic still points to me being elim. I don't think anyone but you actually agreed (or agrees now) with TUO's elim profile. This is part of why people were willing to vote him out last cycle (the other part being that he never actually voted for anyone with that profile). Also, I basically always vote D1. This is NAI behavior for me. I invented the Stab Vote as a villager. So if you think this makes me elim, you should just vote me out every single game. If I hadn't said anything last cycle, probably Steel would have died. The previous cycle, Venture would have died quite easily without my interference. So if you think the point of my talking has been to cause misexes, presumably you think Steel is elim? And Devotary too, since she had the second most votes C2?
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The purpose of sitting back this cycle is to give everyone else room to think for themselves, which has already happened more than last cycle. When you have time, do you think you can summarize your reasons for suspecting me in your own words, without directly referencing what other players have said? In particular, what do you think Mage is right about and why, and what exactly did TUO say that I fit, and why would that be a reason for elim!me to vote him out?
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I mean, sure. If you can convince the others, then go ahead and vote me out. Like I said, I’m leaving the thinking to y’all this cycle. It’s hard to solve the game when people don’t do back and forth with you, and last cycle felt like I was just talking to myself. My gut on the elim team right now is something like TJ, Mage, Steel. And if there actually are 3 elims (there could just be 2), then this is LyLo.
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I mean they help out both teams, but they help the village more, since elims can coordinate without using the thread.
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I'm thinking that maybe someone else should do the thinking this cycle. Last cycle too much of the activity (the little that there was) was just responding to me.
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I realize that I kinda skimmed over your response post earlier, so I'll try and answer those questions. Maybe. I have Devotary slashed with Sea, and would preferentially vote out Sea over Devotary. But distancing is also a common elim tactic. It could also be that neither of those two are elim and instead Mage or Orlok is the last one, in this scenario. Well, in a lot of cases someone flipping elim doesn't give tons of info, unfortunately. Steel and Devotary are both suspicious, but neither of them made sweeping statements about the voting patterns of the elim team like you. I'd probably prefer to vote out Steel over Devotary though, based on the arguments TJ has made. TJ is probably my strongest village read, but it's fairly weak. There just hasn't been a lot of discussion this game to get reads from, because lots of people aren't voting or talking. I also feel like TJ is similar to the recent LG, when he was village. I do think elim!TJ would fit with your view of the D1 votes, and it would be nice to confirm whether or not any elims were in danger during D1. Tani could be elim, but I don't think she'd be one with you, and my post is about what might make sense if you are elim. I mentioned somewhere that she's been sheeping you a lot. That could be lazy elim play, but idk. I wouldn't mind someone using a NK on her. I'd still be interested in hearing this. The person I suspect most from that group is Mage, and I'd probably be willing to switch onto him this cycle. Orlok would be next and I wouldn't vote for TJ (or myself) this cycle. So do you think that if TJ is village, and hence all the potential C1 vote options were villagers, that any elims would have bothered to vote? At some point, it became clear that the outcome wouldn't be random, so I disagree with your stance here pretty strongly.
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When he voted Venture, TUO also had a vote, and Mage mentioned a suspicion of TUO. So they could be e/e together. The list of people that voted D1 that are also still alive is myself, TJ, Mage, and Orlok. If you agree with TUO, then you think 2 of these 4 players are elim. Any thoughts on which ones they might be? And depending on how much confidence you have in that suspicion versus your agreement with TUO, you might consider changing your vote, since 50% odds is pretty good for catching an elim. And I'm not worried about y'all killing me off. The elims, sure. But I'm pretty sure if you voted me out then the thread would mostly die (based on the content level this turn, at least) and the elims just get a free win. I've also proposed a couple of alternatives to myself, and I think most people will find those more attractive than voting for me.
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But Devotary didn't vote D1. TUO said that he thought 2/6 of the people that voted D1 were elims. So if you agree with him, that doesn't explain finding Devotary suspicious. If you don't agree with him, it means that more of the elims are in the non-voting group, which you are also in. So in that case, why should we not kill you?
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Do you have any response to what I said about TUO (in the large post about 5 up)?
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That's what TJ is saying. Your usual pattern is to not vote D1. Our current information makes it look like no elims were in danger D1. Hence elim!you has no reason to diverge from your normal gameplay. I'm feeling bad about Mage as well, but some of that is colored by my suspicion of TUO, and the timing of votes last cycle.
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I didn’t ping you in my previous post, but what are your thoughts on TUO’s statement about elims voting D1? And I guess on TUO in general.
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Yeah, going back I think I misremembered something. The only things that stick out about you are that Danex (a villager) voted for you D1, and that you were right about Venture's alignment. Although, I'm not sure "I didn't really have a choice" is accurate. You were never in any real threat of dying last cycle. You also didn't push very hard for other people to join you on Steel, and haven't done so this cycle. Given the current activity levels, I think we need to do more than just vote to prompt some discussion. We need to be actively trying to convince other people to vote alongside us (something I'm guilty of failing at as well, despite the outcomes we've had so far). TUO has been at the back of my mind for a while, so I figure I'll see if it makes sense for him to be an elim. His main contribution has been the suggestion that 2-3 of the votes in C1 were placed by elims, and also that Devotary is suspicious. Now, I think the two statements are something of a contradiction, so in what world does it make sense for elim!TUO to make both of these claims. Well, for starters, I suggested that players with NKs go after low active players, and TUO's comment about the D1 voters was made in response. So, if TUO is elim, it would make sense that other elims have the activity profile I was suggesting we target. However, the comment could have been made in self-defense, since TUO himself fits that profile. The list of living players that didn't vote C1 is: TUO Sea Devotary Tani Steel Interestingly, all of these players voted last cycle. @Devotary of Spontaneity and @SeaDragonet were on Venture, @Tani and @The Unknown Order were on Devotary, and @Steeldancer voted TJ. Based on this, if TUO is elim, I'd expect a team like TUO, Steel, and either Devotary/Sea. And I'd like to note that contrary to what TUO said, I think it would pretty clearly be in the comfort zones for all of these players to not place a vote D1, even if they were elims. I think Tani has been sheeping TUO a bit much for them to be on a team together, and TUO kind explicitly defended Tani when I posted about the NK thing. I also don't think Tani/Devotary would be e/e based on last cycle. Now, what if TUO is village? His statement does mesh with the fact that GMs in the past have preferentially chosen more active players to be elims (or perhaps there is another reason I was evil 6 games in a row). His vote on Devotary could be based on a roleblock or something from a PM. In this instance, he could just honestly have been wrong, and Tani could be sheeping him as an elim. Since this outcome doesn't seem to give a lot of information, I'd like to hear more from TUO, in particular regarding the vote on Devotary. In all of this I've kind of ignored Mage and Orlok. One of those could be elim regardless of TUO's alignment, but I doubt both of them would be. Mage probably makes more sense if TUO is elim, given his vote on Venture shortly after pressure was put on TUO. So I'll switch my vote from TJ to TUO for now. I'd probably be willing to join TJ on Steel, depending on how things play out. Everyone I pinged here is someone I'd like to hear from. In particular, do you think TUO was right/honest about people's participation in the C1 vote, and if so, who among those people is most suspicious. If not, why should I not vote you out?
