Araris Valerian

So if I'm village, and Devo is solo, the current votes will be a tie if Devo is Shielded, or my death if not. By myself I have a 40% chance to shield, and Sart could succeed both a 50% chance to break his block plus a 35% chance to shield. So there is about a 50% chance the vote becomes a tie, and a 50% chance Devo dies, ending the game. Otherwise (75% of the time), there will be another tie, with Devo winning 50%. So the village wins about 52% of the time in this case. If I'm village and Devo has a partner then the village just loses. And of course, in the other two scenarios, the vote today entirely decides things. So if we assume both that there is a 0% chance Devo has a partner and that Devo versus me/Sart is 50-50, then voting me makes sense; it gives around a 75% chance of a village win. But the chance Devo has a partner is not 0, and I think I've made a solid case that Sart/me doesn't make sense as a team, because it would be an overpowered role combination making up 27% of the players. Edit: @Luckspren I'm referring specifically to this post from D3:

If I'm elim, like I put in my 3rd edit, Sart and I have a roughly 42% chance to control the vote entirely today (3 Compulsions plus a Shield, all linked, gives a 60-15=45% chance per weave of success), a roughly 41% chance of tying it (leading to a 50% chance of instantly winning). In the rather small chance that things don't go our way, Sart could still go for Compulsion next turn with a 40% success rate. So voting for me gives you at best ~30% odds of winning. I'm gonna figure the odds in the scenario I've been arguing for, but I've gotta go right now.

Yeah, because we definitely haven't had any recent elim wins due to false Seeker claims. Nope. Not something that we would ever let by us in SE . I'll point out that my vote was on Vorros the entire time I had that discussion, and I never threatened to pull it off, only to vote you out the next day if Vorros flipped village. I haven't really had any reason to think Luck is elim except for her last post, which reads like a cop-out of the discussion. How does Sart putting me and Devo together in a POE make sense with him being on a team with either of us? If Sart and I are e/e, we just go along with the Conquestor vote, do something to hammer today (with us both being channelers, this is easy), and Bob's our uncle. Easy win. None of this "only Araris or Devo can be the Forsaken" stuff. I know that I've been repeating this a lot but nobody has given a response, except Devotary, who didn't address that Sart could just have avoided using the Forsaken to build a POE in the first place. I'd also like to argue (likely my weakest argument, but worth making nonetheless) that I have a more plausible stat distribution than Devo does. I can channel Lightning without Linking (and in fact rolled nearly the best possible stats: 3,3,1,4,4), which fits with the canon of the Shepherd being the literal Dragon Reborn. I don't know Devo's distro but doubt she told Mat it was something that strong. Edit: And apparently nobody has considered how busted it would be to have 2 elim channelers? Guaranteed -1 complexity on every available weave via linking seems quite strong for a team than already has a roleblock and a single guaranteed weave success every single turn. Edit 2: And (yeah this is kinda IKYK) why, if Sart and I had been abusing that capability this whole game, would we (or me at least) not bring up the fact that it would be quite overpowered immediately when people starting calling us e/e? Edit 3: Maybe I'm wrong about the Seeker thing? I thought Mat pulled a LyLo seeker gambit in a recent game but can't find it now. That thought was what prompted by D3 response, regardless of whether my memory was accurate. Also, if Sart and I are elims together, we can just Shield Devo and double Compulsion to swing things to 3-1. I'm not sure if the odds would favor doing a 3rd Compulsion attempt, but that would also be an option. All those weaves would be complexity 2 with a Link, and one would automatically succeed via the Forsaken. So basically no chance that Devo's proposed village wins in this scenario.

Just not talk about a Forsaken? Or not make the assumptions about every Aes Sedia having a Warder, or roleclaim himself. And thanks for the rule correction. @Luckspren, I would hope that the 50% loss chance if you are wrong about me would be enough to convince you to look at some of the argumentation. I’m also not sure why a Mat/Devo team doesn’t seem to have crossed your mind. Yeah, Mat has been pretty village aligned this game, but it’s at least another possibility that should lower your confidence that killing me today is 100% the safest thing to do. And Mat should likewise consider that a Luck/Devo team is possible. (I’m running on the assumption that y’all are both village, but Luck made me a bit less confident with her last post)

Why do you think I could be elim with Sart? I pointed out above that Sart is the reason that people are looking at me and Devo in the first place. Why would he create a POE with a 50% chance of killing off his only teammate? Also, in the 2 villagers versus 1 Forsaken scenario, the elims win, since 2 votes on the same person are required for an exe, and the Forsaken can just use Compulsion. So this is, in fact, LyLo, regardless of the number of elims.

I agree on the facts, but I hope that folks draw a different conclusion

I'm leaning toward just one. And v!Sart should be a point in my favor, given how his claims make e!Devo more probable. Forsaken/Blademaster is, as Sart pointed out, what Devo's suggestion of the elim team might be, and it seems reasonably strong, except of course that Vorros died D2.

It's Sart's fault that we are looking at the two of us this cycle. If he hadn't brought up the Forsaken thing, the POE would likely be wider today, and there'd be no reason for elim!me to force a 50-50 against you. Also, Sart didn't ever argue that Conq or Xino was village, so it doesn't make sense that he was trying to get village credit by doing so. He just said that if we are looking for a Forsaken, we should look at players without confirmed roles. As for the votes on Illwei, there's more going on there than just the votes. I made arguments for voting Conquestor, arguments that other players found convincing, and that potentially could have swung the vote. So in the theoretical world where I am the Forsaken, I was still making a concrete push for Conquestor and against Illwei, which I don't think makes sense. Basically, there is no reasonable world in which both Sart and I are elims, and honestly even if I was evil Sart comes out looking pretty good.

I don’t think Sart’s D3 or the kill on Xino make sense if he’s elim, and certainly not if he’s partnered with me. Why draw all that attention by opposing the Conquestor votes? And (if he’s partnered with me) why kill the only other person that voted Conq on D1? Also, like I said earlier, why would the elims have 2 players opposed a D1 vote on Illwei when it’s v/v? I’d jump on a chance to knock her out early, especially in a game with lots of PMs.

I thought it was. Maybe not. If not, some rethinking should probably occur. Also, just to make sure, @The Unknown Novel, can there be more than one Shepherd?

I really hope Sart isn’t elim, because then they have 2 channelers (Forsaken don’t get Warders). But also I don’t think he makes sense as a teammate with me based on the D1 voting. Why vote twice (even if one is fake) to oppose a v!Illwei train? Honestly, this is a bit of a bummer. I was looking forward to solving today, and now nobody cares what I say.

I can just try to Weaveblock Devo. It’s only a 40% unless someone links with me, but that’s not terrible. @The Unknown Novel, can a Weaveblock stop the Forsaken guaranteed weave?

None. I was wanting to blast somebody, which is a night only action. But Shielding blocks for 2 turns. Edit: And apparently you get GM notification

Devotary. That makes things easy for me, at least. Of course, shepherd is really the only viable role claim at this point anyways, since the other two roles would have used their abilities by now. The Xino kill makes more sense then, because it blocks me from confirming my 2 night actions. I’m not sure it makes a ton of sense for e!me to send in that kill though unless it would be for IKYK shenanigans. Does anyone want to claim the Weaveblock on me from D3? I don’t really think I can confirm that I was indeed blocked, but it fits with the 5 vote stack meaning that a Forsaken wouldn’t need to use Compulsion.

I guess I got everyone so focused on accounting for my physical actions that the elims really didn't want me to be able to do that? I also promised a roleclaim, so I'm the shepherd. Never did get a weave off, though not entirely for a lack of trying. Lightning just has really bad odds unless you link (N1 I tried Vorros but also PMed Devo, which I forgot would lower the odds further, N2 I went for Conq). I was hoping the elims would burn a kill on me, but I think Mat/Sart focused on me too much last turn for that to happen.

Someone weaveblocked me, so that doesn’t really mean much. I don’t think the 100% Forsaken success bypasses that.

Well, I’m vaguely suspicious of both of you, so that isn’t a total loss . In fact, I’m fairly confident that one of the two of you is elim based on D1 voting, so that would be an excellent place for a kill to go.

Oh. Well, I’ll do one with Sart, since he wants me dead. And one with Xino, since I want him dead. I would do one with you but I already did that. And then someone can roleblock me or something if they want.

There’s actually any easy way around this; PMs can contain more than 2 people.

I'm not planning on submitting any actions tonight. I'll roleclaim during the next day, but I don't see any advantage to doing it now instead of then. Same goes for Devotary; if either of us is one of the confirmed village roles, it doesn't make sense to claim and give the elims a chance to mess with us. What's the justification for this? In particular, why would e!Devotary vote last-minute on a v-v train during D1, especially one the elims knew the outcome of? (though I feel like Devo or someone else did something like that in the past specifically to throw people off) I think one of Sart/Xino is elim, just because elims generally prefer to split their votes. And Mat/Luck are the two people that didn't vote on a contending person D1. Xino seems to fit the bill of a Forsaken. And then I would put either Mat or Luck as the last elim. Edit: Or I guess I could create 2 PMs? That might be helpful for confirming that I'm not sending in kills.

Well, Sart moves up in the polls for strongly pushing for a non-Conquestor vote last turn. Especially since his line of reasoning seems odd to be coming from an elim.

Sart is currently voting on me, so far as I can tell.

You've said it, but can you elaborate? The two didn't interact very much outside of Vorros basically agreeing with Luckspren about being confused why people were suspicious there.

I'm not claiming. Looking back at D1, Vorros was pushing back against the Conquestor votes, and the two of them also voted together, so I agree that them being e/e makes sense. Also noticed Illwei pointing out that Xino being elim doesn't make a ton of sense, and I think I agree. Xino voted on Conquestor during D1, and then Vorros voted for Xino last cycle. Since I currently village read Mat and Luck, that puts Sart as the last elim, since I doubt the entire elim team (if Devo and Conq are both elim) voted Illwei D1.

I’m leaning towards Conquestor as well, but I’m going to do a reread before voting.