Araris Valerian
-
Posts
4725 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Araris Valerian
-
I'm pretty sure this is not the case, since we can account for the camp defense without the existence of the Shadowblaze. If someone had a Shadowblaze, then the claims would not match the actual defense.
-
Similar to what the person in contact with Striker is doing. Let people who want to protect just do so, and then either claim in thread to have received a PM from a protecting player (this would be a lie), or PM a somewhat trusted player and ask them to say the same thing. We could get exactly 1 extra defend this way, and if the defenses got disrupted, it would narrow down potential leaks by quite a bit.
-
Well, in retrospect the plan was pretty terrible, since apparently everyone just did their own thing. I would also object that you agreed to the plan, and a specific probability in the thread. I also had a perfectly good secondary plan, but mine didn't meet enough opposition to make it worth proposing.
-
That's good to know. And it would make sense that a lot of people grabbed items, even if they were following the plan. Everyone would only defend on a 1/6 chance. Claiming to not have Chalk is probably bad, since it narrows down who the elims want to roleblock.
-
I suppose it's worth asking, is there anyone that ignored the RNG defense plan N1? Knowing that can give us a better idea of the chances the Kas and/or Unknown are elims.
-
But there was a significant D1 vote swing off Matrim. I think it's fair to say that those involved in that swing thought Matrim was village.
-
I dumped some acid, so we only need 2 lines of Warding.
-
We wanted to vote out Archer, but he claimed non-Rithmatist, which was confirmed by Devotary (although not proved). So we are looking elsewhere.
-
Yeah, I'm not going to vote for Archer, even if he's a safe target. He's village (assuming we can confirm the claim), so we don't kill him. That's that. My next choice is Matrim.
-
The only issue I have with this is that it would mean only a single villager rolled to protect, which I find rather unlikely. I do find it interesting that Kas and Unknown were the two players that grabbed Chalk, and also happened to both defend the Camp. I agree with the principle that the elims could have protected the camp to earn trust, which is part of why I retain my suspicion of Matrim.
-
Okay, I think I'm mostly caught up, although I'm not entirely sure why Matrim isn't on the table today. I have a stronger suspicion of him now than I did during D1. If Matrim is elim, then Illwei is pretty suspicious. But there is no reason for elim!Illwei to swing the vote off of village!Mat. However, I think elim!Illwei might have voted on Bystander rather than Danex, since Bystander already had a vote. The hole in this argument is that we generally don't vote out new players D1. So basically, Illwei/Matrim could be e/e, but I'd prefer to vote out Matrim first of the two. And I'd say that Ash might be a stronger connection with Mat than with Illwei. Mat did have a Bucket of Acid, but elim!Mat would probably want to use that ASAP anyways. Based on some responses to my GoLaC Defense plan, I have slight village reads on Reading, Quinn, Striker (via PM), and Gears. They all expressed discomfort with my plan in some shape or form, which I think an elim would be less likely to do. As pointed out, Kas and Unknown both drew Lines of Warding, and appear to have been the only two. So that puts them as decent village for me. I also don't think Kas would fit the profile of an elim team that didn't send in a kill I'm rather suspicious of Archer, who gets my vote for now, due to being a current option. His vote jumped around D1 without contributing a whole lot to things. He took a Bribe, which I'm not entirely sure about, but I can definitely see an elim doing. His post with reasons to vote on Illwei gives me vibes of the QF we were elims together in, which is probably where most of my suspicion comes from. Ventyl has been rubbing me wrong, but that always happens. Given my village reads on Kas/Unknown, Ventyl is my greatest suspect that went for Chalk, and Chalk is helpful for elims. I have a slight suspicion on Devotary and Ash, but I think that's gut and only slightly puts them below everyone else. Rough ordering of players, least to most suspicious:
-
Not feeling well today, so I probably won't contribute much to discussion until tomorrow.
-
normal!Araris is trying to take control. I sense myself slipping into the shadows with each additional post. I will say that my PM with Striker gave me village vibes. He was uncomfortable with my RNG scheme, but not in a way that I'd expect an elim to be. But I'm pretty inexperienced at reading people from PMs, so I could be totally off here.
-
Possibly. It could be a valid strategy for the elims to just not kill, since they have an alternate win condition.
-
If we only need one success, then yeah, 1/6 sounds good.
-
Hmm, thoughts on the vote later. It seems like the plan for defense is my RNG plan. I think both 1/4 and 1/5 are comfortable numbers to use for this, so each person could probably choose which one they want to personally use, with the lower number if you have an action you’d otherwise prefer to take. Just be sure to honor your result or we could get overrun. I see @Alvron wants that gun in the supply pronto .
-
Having already made an offering to the Gods of Luck and Chance this game, I feel like this would be in character for me, but I'm on the wrong side of things, unfortunately.
-
Thread pocket accomplished . My vote on Gears had decent reasoning when I made it, and I haven’t really seen any reason to move it. Like I’ve said, I’ve spent enough cycles diverting from a D1 Gears kill, and this was a good opportunity to create pressure early. I’m sort of suspicious (of the general population) that nobody has been pushing strongly for any targets (Gears or otherwise). Edit: Although Matrim has a couple of votes now. That feels a bit better.
-
The use the elims have for those items is twofold. First, they can look good by taking them. Second, actual villagers will lose access to those items.
-
Hmm. That's different than the original posted rules, which I guess most of us have been referencing.
-
For better or for worse, I'm voting, so that's no longer a relevant question.
-
Well, if it were allowed by the rules, there would be an argument to be made for no vote today. But it isn't. No vote minimum and ties are random. Somebody is getting killed, so we best do something with it instead of wasting the opportunity. ^
-
I don't think there is an entire lack of culpability. We can ask who did, in fact, add to the defense the following day. While some elims might lie, villagers wouldn't, and that is another data point that can help us out. The plan is emphasizes protecting the camp over finding elims because (IMO) the risks of letting the camp get overrun are significantly higher than the chance that we learn something useful from a coordinated defense. I also think people should do sort of whatever they want with items, at least for now. We can sort out who all is still able to protect next cycle.
-
Actually, it turns out that with a 1/5 chance of each villager protecting, there is only a ~10% chance that the camp gets overrun. The average amount of wasted chalk would be 1.54. If we decided to go with this plan, we could flex the probability higher or lower depending on which number people are uncomfortable with. I suppose the question is, is there anyone that wouldn't go along with my plan if the village agreed to it? And is 10% a comfortable margin of failure? My suggestion of 1/4 odds cuts that in half, but increases the amount of wasted chalk on average to 2.31. Math for amount of wasted chalk: Edit: We could also easily adjust this if some players don't want to do it, but the majority do.
-
Perhaps we could look to the Gods of Luck and Chance for the camps defense tonight. If everyone takes a 1/4 chance and protects on success, we should get roughly 4 village defense, which seems about right.
