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Araris Valerian

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  • Member Title
    Knight Ferrous
  • Gender
  • Location
    Washington State
  • Interests
    Sanderson Elimination
    Video games (strategy, platformer, rpg)
    Long strategy board games
    Abstract math

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  1. Well, sort of. Depends on which cycle the Aes Sedai is vulnerable. Not to mention the possibility of a blademaster. Not sure elims would want to risk a failed kill this early in the game.
  2. Oh, my interpretation was that the Forsaken would just pass the die rolls, but not roleblocks. Can see why someone would look at it differently though.
  3. Since water actions got blocked, there was no Compulsion. That means that if a Forsaken exists, it would have to be Aeternum or CadCom, unless someone (or better, multiple someones) can confirm that water weaves did get blocked. I think if there isn’t a Forsaken, the elims would want to bluff one, to throw us off. In that world, Kas looks good (could have soothed a vote), as does CadCom (stopped any elims from soothing).
  4. You know, I was going to jokingly say that you were defending me because this is the first game in a while that I’m not stuck IMing. That is a valid point. I think a Forsaken/Myddraal teams would work. But it could also be high power on both sides, especially with the village only roles that exist.
  5. I totally agree about the NK. Though I think there are folks in this game that could run aggressive thread control if they wanted. Well, or at least we threaten to. It’s up to the folks left alive to decide whether it’s worth pursuing later. What we don’t want is to completely ignore the mechanic.
  6. I’d say I’m suspicious of Mat for his comment that he wasn’t defending CadCom, and for mentioning the extra life thing. CadCom’s statement wasn’t significant enough for me to sit out and listen when there was active discussion to engage with. Nobody else really commented in between. The question is, why doesn’t everyone else? I’ll note that if I wanted to do “solve repression” I’d go for you or Mat or Kas or Stick… or I’d realize that tactic might be hopeless with the players in this game. Besides, role/rule analysis =/= solving, so I don’t know where you are coming from anyways.
  7. Yeah, everyone should vote because the Forsaken’s vote gets canceled, so we can force the elims to use Compulsion if they have a Forsaken. If the Forsaken doesn’t use compulsion, we look for the missing vote to get a nice POE. Also, because vote manip exists, we should also aim for a 2 or 3-vote margin if it’s reasonable. We refer to the vote as an “execution” or the “exe” now, yeah. So if you take the old terminology of lynching and swap in exe everywhere, it should match up pretty well with what we use now.
  8. Who knows, maybe I did get that elim team-up with Kas that I've been waiting for. I gave a reaction, which is different from giving interpretation/reasoning. Saying "CadCom pointed out thing X" followed by a vote on CadCom shows that I have an opinion, but it doesn't give my reasoning. Logically, the argument goes P1: CadCom made some odd comments about specific roles P2: Making odd comments about specific roles makes a person likely an elim C1: CadCom is likely an elim But I really just implied P2 without any justification, which was what I was interested in hearing from others (if you take my vote as a statement of the conclusion). Eventually I followed up with my justification for that part of the argument, the thing about a timeline to victory. I actually think a more plausible reason is just that elims are generally more concerned about extra lives than villagers. I'm curious to hear why you think e!me would be more likely to do this than village me. I'm also curious why you are certain that I'm elim but are not voting for me. Seems like something a Forsaken would do.
  9. You’re right, there’s not much village guarantee. I lean toward there being a Forsaken, which would mean only one other role is elim. I also think the elims would have 2 channelers for balance’s sake. My main memory of the last run of this game is trauma over knowing Devo was evil and then failing a long sequence of die rolls to kill her.
  10. This is sort of right. I wanted to see other people’s reactions before giving my own, though I wasn’t planning on jumping on anyone. Personally, I think folks doing role analysis are doing it “honestly”, because it’s too easy to get caught emphasizing certain parts of the rules and doesn’t really have much benefit (as seen here, where I brought it up immediately). I do think that since Warder and Blademaster are defensive roles, it would be a bit more natural for an elim to have them in mind, and then to post something along those lines. In my experience elims requested like to work out a timeline for winning, and the presence/lack of extra lives and protects is very important for that sort of thing. It’s also probably a more natural assumption that Amyrlin and Forsaken are both in the game, since they are less generic than the other two.
  11. That’s a good point. I’m just here to point out the contradictions, not to say what they mean.
  12. Hold on, I just got through explaining why it wasn't standard. He called out Blademaster and Warden as unlikely while ignoring the Amyrlin (who similarly has a role that scans as her), all while not giving a satisfactory reason for the statement. It's a minor thing, but it still seems odd. Edit: I think we understand the rules, but it's not really possible to succinctly sum them up.
  13. So I understand that both of these statements are true, I just don't really get how they are related. I'll also note that something similar happens with the Amyrlin, which you didn't mention.
  14. As the person that help vet the rules, I can sympathize . The gist is that most folks have a bunch of available actions depending on their elemental ratings, but they are inconsistent unless you Concentrate or Link. Something really important to note is that the Forsaken cannot vote, but can guarantee a single weave to work. For this reason, absolutely everyone should vote every cycle, to force the elims to use Compulsion to hide this. I'm not sure why it would follow from the fact that the role scan isn't foolproof that there would be no warders/blademasters. Of course we should be wary about assuming any roles exist, and also about any assumptions of alignments of those roles. Still, seems like an odd conclusion, so I'll vote CadCom for now.
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