Claincy

Um, yeah, no. That list is a rubbish. Sure there's probably at least 1 spiked on the list, it's got over half the remaining active players in the game on it, that's almost guaranteed to contain at least 1 of the spiked. Even if I didn't know it was wrong from my presence on the list there is no way that it's legit. The only question is whether it's Mek or Wyrm who made it up. @Maill, I don't *think* a mistborn would be able to survive another hit even if they got pewter twice, though I could be wrong. Even if I am though, I really don't think Wyrm is a mistborn. So Wyrm. Make of it what you will, I'm too tired to really argue more.

There's not a whole lot I can say to this. It's reasonable logic for suspicion. I think I've already said as much as there is of use to say regarding Weiry being lurched *shrug* and I was one of the ones pointing out that one of the more trusted players may well be spiked so I'm not going to argue against that logic, just note that there were others who knew enough. I suppose it is worth noting that the only reason you know that Hero told me is because I told you everything afterwards. I've been pretty open and honest about the whole thing, even knowing how it could would put suspicion on me. I think I'll vote for Jain for now. Let me explain why: -I have been a strong proponent of the idea that there is at least 1 experienced player amongst the spiked, Jain fits that -I have also noted that I think it is likely that at least one of the spiked has been largely inactive (not totally inactive, but not very active either), Jain fits that -We have pretty good evidence at this point to suggest that the spiked have a rioter. Jain fits that too The vote manipulation seems like some of the best evidence we have at the moment for working out who is spiked, so it seems logical to focus on it a bit. The other part is that as the number of players goes down, vote manipulation roles become more and more powerful and if we can take out the spiked rioter we have a much better chance of preventing the spiked from controlling the lynches. I'm slightly confused as to what you are saying here Piff. Were you saying if the rioting looked like it was helping the spiked you'd vote Unodus? Sorry, it's just a bit unclear. Congrats

It'd take 2.5k in half an hour. Don't think that's gonna happen, and I've already put in as much (or more) as I really should. Edit: The campaign has ended with 3 exclusive dice, at $42,831

(It's actually 13 now 5 for others, 2 for gifts in the future, 6 for me...I like dice) ...so I remember ~5 days ago saying that I thought it would hit 20k but 24k seemed a bit unlikely....very pleased that I was wrong. I'm strongly in favour of electrum and lerasium, but after that I'm less certain. I personally think that having a single poll where everyone could pick the 3 they wanted most and then just pick the 3 with the most votes would be accurate enough without making it too complex.

The thought that at least one of the spiked is an experienced player is one I've been in support of for quite some time now and recent events certainly haven't done anything to change my mind about that. So what've the experienced players done over the past couple of cycles? Claincy (including myself for the sake of completeness) Day-6 -here: Goes a little overboard with an excessively long post. Talks about possibility of offensive smokers/ current situation, discusses current main suspicions: Weiry/Newan/Peng and discusses the possibility of a traitor high up in the trust group. -here: adds a couple more notes/clarifications -here: adds that he forgot to mention that Hero said at least 4 people knew his role, disagrees with Peng a little -argument with Newan, not sure that these posts are worth reading, but go back and read them if you want. -here: far more level-headed post, considers probability of offensive smoking and different mindsets, considers evidence of who knew Hero's role -here: pops online long enough to say that he doesn't think the spiked could shift the vote succesfully at this point, and doing so would reveal them all anyway which would be good so leaves his vote as is. Night-7 -dead spiked celebration post Day-7 -here: apologises for absence, votes for dowanx to ensure no manipulation based on existing reasoning, vote tally Night-8 Mail Day-6 -here: votes for Senn mostly based on gut feeling -here: agrees that we may well have a traitor in the trust group, names pifferdoo/Senn/Jain based on avoiding suspicion, talks about his suspicions, suspects the spiked have an "inactive" -here: 80% sure the spiked have a seeker -here: reiterates his suspicion of Senn/Pifferdoo for sliding under the radar. Night-7 -dead spiked celebration post -here: doubts they have 2 smokers, sad that Weiry wasn't the lurcher -here: recognises that Joe is right about the lurcher being useless Day-7 -here: surprised he wasn't killed, talked to Reeco last night, Reeco was suspicious of dowanx and Unodus, votes for dowanx -here: comments on trusting Wyrm somewhat, Claincy significantly more for having plenty of chances to screw over the village like him Night-8 -here: asks why people asume the rioter rioted themselves, just as likely they didn't get on in time/forgot/just didn't do it and Piff was soothed -here: agrees that something definitely happened, just doesn't know why the focus is on rioting Joe Day-6 -here: votes for Maill without explaining why -here: explains his reasons for thinking Maill is spiked and reveals Maill's role for anyone who didn't know -here: says he knew revealing Maill's role was a bad idea, but that we'd lost all need for hidden communication, question's Maill's logic/innocence a little. -here: removes his vote on Maill after learning that more people knew Hero's role. -here: summarizes the cases against Weiry/Peng/Newan and votes for Weiry -here: updated vote list, thinks the vote gap is sufficient to guarantee Weiry lynch, notes that he looked into who knew Hero's role but couldn't find the 4th person -Joe notes resolved gender confusion Night-7 -here: thinks that Weiry's guilt means Newan is innocent -here: notes that the lurcher is useless -posts previous days vote tally Day-7 -here: gut says that Unodus is innocent based on questions about RP in the writeup on day 1, suspicious of Pifferdoo; last to vote on Weiry, who voted for him, predicted the spiked were laughing, sliding under the radar, posts a fair bit but doesn't say much. Wants him to say more to get a better feel for him. -notes resolved gender confusion -here: doesn't think dowanx is spiked due to lack of opposition to lynch, switches vote to Pifferdoo as he hasn't responded -here: retracts vote from Pifferdoo as he responded, encourages him to talk more, comments on commenting on spiked laughing being a spiked tactic in the past -here: suggests that people who aren't voting pair up and vote for eachother to more easily find soothers/rioters Night-8 -here: suggests Pifferdoo could just have been soothed, wonders if we were wrong in estimates of emotionmancers, says Peng, pifferdoo or he would have had to be the one to target pifferdoo, asks meta if soothers/rioters can target themselves, suggests either Peng did it or Pifferdoo did it to cast suspicion on Peng and him -here: explains possible rioters logic from previous post Wyrm Day-6 -here: does some analysis of the situation. Voices suspicion on Maill and Claincy based on Hero's death and Weiry being lurched. Votes for Claincy. -here: removes vote on Claincy, considers the situation further and votes for Newan. -here: shifts vote to Weiry, says he doesn't care too much who we lynch out of those he's suspicious of + Weiry might give more info, wants to know who else knew Hero's role. (Which we still dunno). -here: considers why Weiry was smoked and lurched, comes to the conclusion that Weiry is the spiked mistborn Night-7 -here: removes suspicion from Newan, suspicious of Unodus: vote changes, refusal to vote before evidence, trying to stay under the radar, notes inactives Day-7 -here: votes for Unodus asking for discussion and explanation of why he hasn't contributed much and hasn't voted till recently. -here: suggests that Unodus should be trying to get us to lynch someone else, notes that some people would be keeping records of votes (including him) -here: encourages Unodus to share suspicions in case he dies, shifts vote to dowanx; we need a lynch, rather kill a semi-active villager than an active, notes that if dowanx is innocent this will swing back to Unodus and others, reminds we need a decent majority, fairly sure Maill doesn't trust him Night-8 Peng Day-6 -here: disagrees with a couple of Claincy's points, votes for Weiry on the basis that even if Weiry was innocent we would learn a lot. Night-7 -here: dead spiked celebration post, and says there is a lot we can learn from a spiked lynch Day-7 -here: says Newan is pretty much clean, can't imagine two spiked smokers, probably a spiked seeker, -here: notes he was keeping vote records but stopped day 2 -here: asks why we assume the spiked have a soother/rioter, guesses it's one or the other. -here: bandwagon getting out of hand, no suspicions so not voting Night-8 Jain Day-6 -here: apologises for inactivity, votes for Pifferdoo asking why there has been no suspicion on him but providing no other reason. Night-7 Day-7 -comments on gender confusion Night-8 Macen - nada Well that took a while, I didn't bother linking some stuff (or noting todays stuff, I mean, just look up the page ), mostly not really game related or unimportant. Shouldn't be hard to find if you do reread it though. It's really late here and I kinda need to sleep, for now the couple of thoughts my tired mind is coming up with are: -Joe hasn't been acting very spiked IMO -Peng's posts have been decidedly uninspiring and of limited help, though day 7 was better than previously -Pifferdoo's posts have had very little in the way of useful discussion but he has been posting relatively frequently (as has been mentioned). Yeah yeah, he's not on the list of experienced players, noticed that anyway. Bout time for bed, will think more tomorrow.

Hey all, sorry for being absent a lot lately. Between vastly insufficient sleep and working all day I kinda burnt out. I'm going to vote for dowanx today. No amazing or especially clever reasoning here. Just what people have already said, and a desire not to give the spiked an opportunity to change it. I'll try to be more useful again starting tomorrow. Quick vote tally: dowanx (7) - Maill, Melend, Wyra, Senn, Odustren, Pifferdoo, Claincy

Sweet, finally

I'm online for a minute as I said I would be. But with that size of a gap the only way that the spiked could even try to prevent it is by throwing everything they had against the vote, and if they do that they will reveal themselves.....go right ahead

I do, and hopefully you can forgive me for my response as well. It was significantly more aggressive, less structured and generally poor and unpleasant than it should have been. Where I noted in that post that I was dissapointed at your post and thought you can do better, I feel exactly the same way about my own post. However valid the points either of us made, I think we both allowed too much anger/annoyance and general unpleasantness to creep into our posts, and that in some ways made the points seem more like angry assertions than logical thoughts as well as making them less clear, and that is dissapointing because we are both better than that. (Emotion colouring posts is fine , but I don't think we should let it take over as much as it did.) Without the defensiveness that was clouding my previous reply and the overstatedness of your original post I can clearly see that my response had the same issues of over-assuredness and unpleasantness. I think when I referred to "your bias" I was referring to how you seemed to only be looking at things from the one angle with the assumption that you were correct (and that I was spiked). Something that I strived to avoid in my initial post, but also failed at when I responded to you. As a result of my own bias and frustration/tiredness/defensiveness (and some annoyance) I didn't give your points as much credit as they deserved and judged it more harshly than it deserved, and I operated too strongly on the assumption that the spiked think the way I do. An assumption that I should have been more hesitant to make. (I still feel strongly that they must be/have intelligent and experienced players, but that doesn't mean they think like me.) You and I both think very differently as villagers and as spiked it seems, and I should have been more open to other viewpoints before instead of assuming that I was right based on their success so far. I think it varies considerably depending on the spiked team, we have definitely had occasions in the games I have played where the spiked have tried complicated gambits, ones that some people might call foolhardy. They haven't always worked of course, but some have. It has been ~6 months since I last played though so to give proper detail on any I'd have to go back and reread them. Personally as a spiked at this point in time I think I would very likely gamble on their being no remaining seekers and I would probably be trying to use smoking offensively, but I can understand that others would not. So how to conclude; we think a bit differently about things, we both had some valid points but we both made some mistakes in how we posted them. I do still think you're spiked, (and I'm guessing that your opinion on my spikeyness hasn't changed over-much either ). But I don't harbour you any shred of ill-will, and I apologize for my own mistakes Heh, maybe I spent too long having a rather large portion of my detailed discussion with Wilson, she tends to come up with the same kind of complicated/devious things I've been talking about so that could have caused some confirmation bias. They couldn't have chosen a target for the smoking gambit with any certainty, though they could probably narrow down the list of people likely to be manipulated a reasonably way depending on how much information they had. I think this possibility is now getting more attention/discussion than it deserves, I wanted to bring it up as I think it is possible and (when I'm thinking clearly) I like to consider things from multiple angles. Hero doesn't trust people lightly, and I think in case one of us was spiked he didn't want any of us to know who everyone else he trusted was. Hero told me that he was in connection with both (very likely village) soothers, but he didn't tell me if they knew his role or not so I don't know for certain if they knew or not. I wish I did though, because the odds that one of the 4 of us is spiked are good. If the spiked have a seeker that probability is lower though still entirely possible. But we don't know if they do or not. I kinda wish whoever the other two are they would come forward, though I can understand their desire to stay anonymous. If I had been forced to guess I would have guessed you and Sarc as the other two though. As I think I already said, the message where Hero told me that: -4 people knew his role (or should be near certain) -that he suspected others might have guessed -that he was in contact with both soothers -that he was targeting Weiry -and that he wouldn't be surprised if he was killed that night; was the last message he sent me before dying. For now, I still think Newan is spiked (though I'll admit to being less certain than before), so my vote will stay there for now, but I'll be on *very* briefly in the morning and I'll change my vote then if necessary to ensure the spiked don't change our final target. Aside from that I may be online and have a chance to read some stuff but I won't have the opportunity to post again till past the end of the cycle, the same is going to happen next cycle as well but at least that's night. :/

This post is a direct response to Newan, I'm not quoting just for the sake of page space I could pretend to be angry at having my post called "a load of chull crem" but I'm not going to. Whenever I make a detailed post like this in an elimination game I fully expect someone to try to discredit it, and it's always interesting to see who. Though honestly Newan, that post is a remarkably poor effort on your part. To get the obvious out of the way first, you call a single portion of my post absurd (providing only the most basic reasoning to support your own assertions) and use that as a basis to call my entire post a load of crem, attempting to discredit everything else in the post by association with the one point that you attacked. The only assumption necessary in my post (which I clearly stated) is that the spiked are intelligent and that they almost certainly have at least one experienced player among them. We're down 11 villagers including most of the power-roles without taking out a single spiked, assuming otherwise at this point would be foolishness. Let's break this down: I will be utterly shocked if there is another village seeker in the game. There is 0 evidence to support the existence of one (unless they are inactive in which case they might as well not exist anyway), if there was another seeker they have had 6 cycles in which to seek people, I find it almost impossible to believe that in that time they have entirely failed to build a trust group or find any useful targets and that there would have been no indication of their existence. While it's even more obvious to someone who's been part of the main trust groups what has happened in the thread is enough to discredit the idea of there being another village seeker provided you are paying attention. Well no, it's not. Not if they are smart. Detecting someone who is smoked in the early game or at this point in the game is enough to throw heavy suspicion on them. It doesn't really matter whether they were seeked or had their vote manipulated. This is evidenced quite clearly by the suspicion on Weiry from this single incident (I've already clearly stated what I think of the rest of the evidence). As a result, and with the almost certainty of their being no village seekers left in play the spiked could very easily use their smoker offensively by smoking people they thought were likely to be soothed (or seeked earlier in the game). If there is a traitor amongst the trust groups this kind of strategy makes even more sense as they would have more information on which to base their smoking. So that they would do something like this is entirely feasible, if not likely. That said, if they are doing that then that leaves it to a 50/50 as to whether Weiry is the smoker or the smokee. Which still leads to an overall decent chance of Weiry being spiked which is why he's still in my top 3 suspects, but without further evidence to support Weiry being spiked it isn't quite enough to pass my suspicion on you and Peng. I think I've already said as much on that particular point as there is of value to say. Only if you completely reject my points, which of course you did. If, in fact, I am correct, then if you are a spiked smoker the odds that Weiry is a villager improve noticeably. (The opposite is also true to an extent, if we lynch Weiry and he is a villager my suspicion of you will decrease.) But given my existing suspicions against you (which you are only making stronger) that is one more reason to find Weiry slightly less suspicious than you and Peng. Your post is based on the assumption of me being a fool, or spiked. Your "logic" equates to calling my reasoning absurd without providing any significant evidence to support your claim and repeatedly and confidently making assertions that make perfect sense from the perspective of a newer player, but fall apart in the face of more experienced and detailed strategies. From a new player, I'd kind of expect the arguments you're making. But you're not a new player and you know better than this. Which means that you are significantly overstating your points and dismissing mine for the sake of trying to discredit me. I don't mind people disagreeing with me or pointing out flaws in my reasoning, but you can do a heck of a lot better than that Newan. Your points aren't entirely without merit, but they are rather basic, and your own apparent bias and aggressiveness is getting in the way of them. It's entirely possible that Weiry is spiked, but I'm more certain that you are. So yes, I'm going to change my vote to Newan now, you just passed Peng in terms of suspiciousness. If people want to read into all this as me being overly defensive of Weiry or overly aggressive towards someone who disagrees with me, go for it, I can't stop you. *shrug* I like to look at things from multiple angles, including the angle of what I personally would be doing if I was spiked, and if no-one else feels like discussing it I'm going to make sure that different possibilities have at least been considered. Bandwagoning on to one person based on a single situation before considering if there are other explanations seems like a very bad idea. There's not a whole lot I can say regarding this. *shrug* The only way for me to avoid this kind of suspicion is to sit back and not get involved in the discussion and analysis in such detail and I don't intend to do that. Edit: Ok, maybe I am a little annoyed. I don't like people dismissing my points and arguments without sufficient cause, and I'm not that fond of being told my multi-hour post was chull crem. Edit2: So I apologize if this came off as offensive to you personally. That wasn't what I was trying to do.

So I realized that I forgot an important point in my discussion above. It'd been in my head beforehand but somehow never made it into the post In the same PM where Hero told me he was targeting Weiry last night he also told me that at least 4 people knew his role (or were pretty certain of it) and that he thought he might die because he suspected that one of us was spiked. (Turns out it was back on the 16th when he said only Maill and I knew.) He also mentioned being in contact with both village soothers at that point. I don't know who the other 2 people who knew his role are, though I strongly suspect that Sarc was one and I wonder if Wyrm or the other soother (which I don't know who is) was the other. Hero did say that he hadn't told anyone else that he was targeting Weiry though I don't know if he did later, but I don't think it would have been at all hard to guess. Sorry that I forgot about that, I know it's rather important information The above info might make it make a little more sense why I thought the spiked likely knew/guessed. My own figuring was that provided Sarc was telling the truth about being a soother who was soothed by Araris the odds that he was in communication with the coinshot were extremely high. (I knew they were, but I'm talking about what people who didn't know could guess.) From that it seems to me a logical conclusion, just based on the evidence in the thread, that Weiry was a likely coinshot target, and it's entirely possible that the spiked had more information than that to go on. "I also can't fathom any reason why a village lurcher would protect wirey." Short of Weiry being a lurcher (very unlikely), neither can I. I'm pretty certain that was a spiked lurcher. I noted two relatively significant things you had done that made no difference in my mind to how suspicious you were and talked about 1 that made you slightly less suspicious but could still have easily been a spiked action with a net change of very little in my suspicions. There's nothing terribly strange about me continuing to vote for you based on that.

I think technically you ninja'd me. Sarc said he was the village soother that was seeked by Araris in his last post in the last cycle. I was offline most of the night cycle. Hero made the call to target Weiry and I didn't get online with time to post till near the end of the cycle, after Sarc had already said his piece. By that point Hero was offline and didn't get back online before the end of the cycle *shrug*. Permission granted

This is bad, though I wish it were more of a surprise. I've got a bit to say here, but I want to start by talking about what just happened, and why it happened. You made a bit of a rookie-mistake Sarco, it's understandable but it did hurt us, let me explain: You soothed Weiry and his vote was unaffected so he was smoked, then you told Hero in a private message, so far, so good. It doesn't guarantee that Weiry is spiked but it is a good cause for suspicion (I'll get back to this soon). Hero told me about this, and that he was targeting Weiry tonight, I only say this for full disclosure. At this point in time things were going pretty well, but then you made your last post yesterday and essentially defeated your own efforts. By publicly and clearly declaring both your suspicions and your reasoning for targeting Weiry and making a big deal about lynching him you painted a giant target on him. At that point it was almost guaranteed that if the spiked did have a lurcher (a reasonable guess before that is all but confirmed now) that they would be lurching Weiry. If Weiry is a spiked, then the spiked obviously would have lurched him to protect him. But if he isn't a spiked they almost certainly would have lurched him anyway, confident that in doing so they would block the coinshot's action and lead to Weiry being lynched the next day anyway. Basically giving them an extra cycle to kill someone before suspicion came back to them. If you hadn't posted that last message and Weiry had been lurched we could have been near certain that there was a traitor amongst the most trusted players and we could have been reasonably sure that Weiry was spiked. As it is we can't be nearly as certain either way about either, nor have do we have any good indication from the action of who the traitor might be if there is one. All we really gained from the whole mess was the knowledge that the spiked almost certainly have a lurcher (it technically could have been a mistborn) and we lost our coinshot. A wiser path would have been to wait till the start of this day cycle to make that post, and if you really thought you were about to die you could have sent a message to whichever two people you trusted most, that way even if one was spiked the message would still get out if you happened to die. I understand making the mistake, but I think it's worth explaining why it was a mistake and what the consequences were. Making mistakes is a very effective way of learning after all. So now to talk about Weiry and whether it is worth lynching him, to summarize the main reasons for suspicion: -He was lurched last night. -He was definitely smoked last cycle (if your word can be believed which I am reasonably certain about.) -He and dowanx posted roughly the same thing in rapid succession and the question/answer about that closeness later felt staged to you. I've already noted that I think the spiked would almost certainly have lurched Weiry regardless of his alignment so this doesn't really help us. I am making the assumption here and in the rest of my post that the spiked are highly competent. Given that it is day 6 and not one spiked has been killed or positively identified I think this assumption is a safe one. Weiry being smoked. This is by far the strongest evidence we have against Weiry and it certainly indicates that Weiry might be spiked. There is however another (concerning) possibility. At this point in the game I think almost everyone feels pretty safe in the assumption that Araris was our only seeker, unless the spiked have one which is entirely possible. Regardless, drawing this conclusion and with what may be our only mistborn also pushing up daisies the spiked could be quite justified in thinking that they were no longer at a significant risk of being seeked. If that is the case they could very well be using their smokers offensively, hoping to cause the exact situation we have with Weiry with an innocent villager. Now they might not be doing that, but given how well they've done so far it wouldn't surprise me, if that is the case anyone we discover as smoked has a 50% chance of being the spiked smoker, and a 50% chance of being the innocent being smoked by said spiked smoker. These are not exactly ideal odds. All the same with everything said this is a good enough cause for serious suspicion, but personally I don't find it enough to raise Weiry to the top of my suspects or priority list. This brings us to the close timing and similar nature of Weiry and dowanx's posts. I do not consider this evidence of them both being spiked, in fact, I find it more likely that at most one of the pair is spiked as a result of it. Let me explain my thought process: The obvious and immediate reaction to seeing two people post so close together with the same intent is that they were collaborating somewhere, presumably on the spiked doc, came to a conclusion and acted on it. One of the most rookie mistake the spiked could make. While it is true that both of them are relatively inexperienced I find it a bit difficult to believe that after the spiked's success so far they would make such a fundamental mistake. But let's keep stepping through the logic. The spiked would of course be aware of how obvious this would be, and would know that any experienced player would have difficulty crediting it as a spiked action, so by doing so they could actually reduce suspicion on themselves! I could continue this circular "I know you know" logic forever but it would be kind of pointless, and in this case it actually doesn't make sense. The situation occurred during day 5, at a point in time when neither of them were under any kind of significant public suspicion. There is no way the gambit I described above would result in reducing suspicion. Furthermore one of the chief considerations for spiked when posting is that they absolutely do not want to be associated with eachother with any level of suspicion unless one of the pair is already under suspicion anyway and they are trying a dangerous gambit. This is so that if one spiked is killed, we wouldn't have immediate solid leads on who the other spiked were. In this case to my memory there had been nothing of any significance to link Weiry and dowanx before this point, so in the best possible case the gambit would have gained them, well, basically nothing. So either they made a really stupid mistake, or it was a coincidence. So yeah, if anything I think this is mild evidence that at least one of Weiry and dowanx is not spiked. So to conclude all that, the thing making Weiry suspicious is being smoked during day 5, though that is absolutely a reason to be suspicious of him, it doesn't match up with my personal suspicion of Newan and Peng, though I can't blame anyone for disagreeing. I suppose this is the part where I would traditionally say that my suspicion of Sarco has risen, and perhaps it has marginally, but certainly not significantly. Your actions and logic make sufficient sense as a newer player and while as I've noted above I disagree with your reasoning, it doesn't appear spiked to me. So, to move on to another topic I'd like to look at what has changed in regards to my suspicions of Newan and Peng. Newan 1) said that he had checked every cycle, but didn't have time to read anything in detail so decided he had nothing to add to the discussion and had little idea who to trust/be suspicious of 2) said that when he talked about taking the game seriously, he meant that he just didn't want to die 3) Newan told the coinshot to kill him to stop the village from wasting more time on him 4) he claims to have left, and be leaving his coppercloud down. 1) This is unhelpful behaviour, but there isn't really much to say about it. A villager who cannot or will not vote/discuss is only useful as a potential fodder for the spiked. But this has been discussed plenty earlier. 2) K. That makes a little more sense and sounds a little less spiked, though it's not a great attitude for a team game. I suggest being a little clearer in future 3) I'm trying to remember how much I've said in PMs and how much I've said in the thread regarding people asking to die. My personal opinion is that it does little to indicate whether the person is spiked or not. To summarize: -At first glance it sounds like something only a village would do, publicly sacrificing themselves for the team. (Of course, spiked do do that too, but generally as part of a larger gambit.) -But as that is the obvious assumption it is a workable double bluff for the spiked (Que I know you know ad infinitum) -If you think you are going to die otherwise, suggesting you be killed is worth a shot, cos what the heck, you've got nothing to lose (On this note I would like to note that the only reason Newan wasn't lynched day 5 was that lord Pifferdoo (probably unintentionally) forgot to colour his old vote green. -For it to look less like a last scramble to save your life you need to do it before it becomes obvious that you are going to die anyway. This is true for a villager or a spiked. I don't think this is really a point for or against Newan being spikey, particularly as his timing could be interpreted a couple of different ways. 4) Yeah a spiked would be less likely to be not using their coppercloud, but he could also easily have been bluffing and none of the village emotionmanceres decided to test him so we don't have any solid evidence from this. Anyway, the overall effect of this is that I am a little less suspicious of Newan, not a whole lot though. Peng 1) changed his vote to Newan as an act of self preservation 2) said he was testing me about the number of PMs he had been in 3) reminded Pifferdoo that he needed to put his past vote in green 1) Perfectly natural for anyone to do, nothing suspicious or suggesting innocence here. 2) This seems vaguely more of a village thing to do, but as a spiked if you can catch someone in a contradiction it's an excellent opportunity to get them lynched. *shrug* 3) Yeah, this doesn't really mean anything either way. So overall my thoughts on Peng have changed........not much Maybe a tad less suspicious now though. Ok, here's the part I really haven't been looking forward to talking about. We have to consider the possibility that one of the players in the trust groups is a traitor. I'm not at all sure whether there is or isn't at this point, though we have been aware and watching for the possibility literally since Wilson first contacted me. (At that time it was the two of us watching eachother of course.) I'm going to try to get the relevant facts/points down here and we'll see where things go from there. -The possibility of me or Wilson being spiked based on the original PM setup and our reasons for trusting eachother have been well documented at this point so I'm not going to try to repeat all the inns and outs of that debate. I linked all the relevant posts here if you want to review them. -Given the number of major hits the spiked are either far more lucky than they have any right to be, or they have a trusted traitor, or they have a seeker. -No-one in the trusted group (to my knowledge) knew that Araris was a seeker at the time of his death. -Wilson's death: +To my knowledge only Maill, Sarcomere and myself knew that Wilson was protecting Hero on the night she died. +That said it is entirely possible, if not likely, that the spiked simply guessed that the coinshot would be the one with lurcher protection that night as it was common knowledge that Wilson knew who the coinshot was. +There is a reasonable chance that the spiked also either knew or had guessed that Wilson was a lurcher. I genuinely don't know/remember exactly who knew about Wilson's role. I did, Maill did, Winter did, Hero may have, I think Wyrm might have? I've honestly forgotten if there were others though I have a feeling there were. Can you help me out here Maill? (The PM convo is thousands of words long and kind of a pain to search through, and I've already been working on this post for hours.) -Hero's death +Maill and I both definitely knew Hero was the coinshot, I know that Sarcomere knew that Wilson lurched Hero the night she died, though I don't know for 100% certain if Sarcomere knew that Hero was the coinshot, I'd be surprised if he hadn't worked it out if he didn't know, Wyrm knew enough to work out who the coinshot was and I'm guessing he did so, but I don't know that for certain either. +To be honest, I don't think it would have taken too much guesswork to peg Hero as the coinshot, though that could be personal bias, and again a seeker on the spiked team would make a big difference here. -Everyone knew Weiry was under extreme suspicion and likely to be coinshot (provided they viewed the thread after Sarc's post) though I don't know for certain if Hero told anyone else that he was targeting Weiry. (He did tell me if that wasn't clear from my wording.) I'm not worried about revealing all this because now that Sarcomere has revealed himself I am near certain that the spiked already know who we all are. And knowledge of who knew what about past events is unlikely to be all that much use to them. So anyway, there we are. From what has happened I don't think it is at all certain that there is a spiked (or more than one) in what remains of the "trust group" as such and I from my observations I don't individually think that any of them are spiked, but, *shrug* I cannot discount the possibility entirely. One final quick note: I'm not terribly impressed with Maill or Joe's reasoning in the posts above, can we really afford to be that vague and in-specific or deliberately avoid stating why we suspect them at this point? So now I should vote...writing that big block of text above? That was easier in some ways. Thinking about it all my chief suspicions are Newan, Weiry and Peng. I'm going to put my vote on Peng again, sorry mate. (Check through day 5 posts for the reasons behind my suspicions.) Please tell me if any of the above is unclear/needs to be explained better or if I made any mistakes or missed anything.

I saw it but didn't get to it at the time, then forgot Added it in now.

I just checked back through my PMs and there was quite a bit of suspicion on you, but turns out only Wyrm was talking about being suspicious of your PM activity. No. I'll try to break this down. We have lost most of our high powered roles already. I'm guessing we don't have any lurchers remaining to slow the spiked kills, we still have a coinshot but unless we can give them evidence by which to use targets they could be worse than useless (hence even more need for discussion), I really really doubt we have another seeker. It's day 5, they would have had 5 nights of seeking and as far as I know nobody has heard anything from them. If we do have another seeker, they're inactive. This means that we will never have the proof you want for lynch votes. If we don't lynch anyone today and don't throw around accusations and discussions, night will come, the spiked will kill another of us and we'll be in the same spot in terms of information tomorrow and have 1 less villager. (If the coinshot attacks with little information they may hit a spiked, but without the lynch vote discussion they are more likely to hit an innocent than a spiked by straight probability, leaving us further behind.) If we avoid lynching anyone we might extend the game by a cycle, maybe two. But we will throw away any chance of taking out the spiked. The only way we can possibly win at this point is to take them out fast before they can kill any more of us, so we need to gamble on our suspicions to have any chance. Waiting on seekers is a semi-viable option in the early game, though I've spoken against it before and will do so again, but in the late game it's certain death, especially when there probably aren't any seekers left to rely on. We screwed up, I'll be the first to admit it. The spiked have done a good job of playing us against eachother and we've consistently hit villagers So I can see why, as a newer player, you might see this strategy as a failed one. But at this point we have no choice but to try to lynch the spiked, or to give up entirely. And I have no intention of giving up until the fat lady Meta sings. (Or posts a final writeup, not sure how good Meta is at singing.) I have little doubt that there are spiked who are voting and spiked who aren't voting. My vote stays where it is (for now at least) but Newan you are sorely tempting me to vote for you. Your increased burst of activity when you were accused isn't too suspicious in that it's fairly normal for anyone to do so. But what it does suggest is that if you had really wanted too you could have been considerably more active during the rest of the game, and you weren't, not in the thread or in PMs anyway, and yet you claim to take the game very seriously. It just doesn't add up, unless you are a spiked who has been feigning inactivity and then it fits perfectly. Do you see the contradiction?

It's a small pile of silver coins, so it's 11 coins that in total equate to around $2. Loose change gets a bit bulky

I'm not talking about that. I think that was a fair enough decision I was referring to what I have been told about how you acted in PMs that I wasn't in. It's second hand information so I take it with a grain of salt, but hearing that you've been overly forceful in trying to enter trust alliances without giving much in the way of reasoning or discussion isn't exactly promising. I apologize if my phrasing was unclear. Wilson didn't think you were spiked through most of the game, but she started to suspect in the last couple of cycles. A important part of the suspicion against both of you is that Wilson, I and at least some other players think that there is almost certainly at least 1 highly experienced spiked in the game. Of the remaining experienced players you two are some of the most suspicious and compared to most of the others we didn't and don't have as much reason to trust you or suspect that you're innocent. Wilson and I had been keeping an eye on the number of smokers from around the time of Satram's death as at that point we already "knew" that Winter and Newan had claimed to be smokers, and 3 village smokers seemed unlikely. We got sidetracked for a while by other suspicions but came back to this point last cycle when other thoughts increased the suspicion on Winter. Wilson and I both suspected that one of the claimed smokers was spiked, though we thought it was more likely to be Winter, as Winter knew from early in the game that Wilson was a lurcher. Obviously, we were wrong on that count. I don't know of anyone else being told, though it is possible.

When you pretend that the small pile of coins on your desk is because of your secret coinshot powers and not because too many small coins makes your wallet annoyingly thick.

This is going very badly. For anyone who hasn't kept count we've now lost 10 villagers without hitting a single spiked. Amongst that we've lost a seeker, mistborn and a lurcher, and we don't have Wilson anymore. Wilson did make certain that in case she died all of her information wouldn't be lost. So she told me and one other almost everything. I won't say who the other is in case the spiked don't know, said person can reveal themselves if they choose but it isn't my place to do so. Not unless I have reason to suspect them and I'm near certain they are a villager. Wilson's main suspicions at the time of her death were Winter, Joe, Peng, and Newan if Winter was innocent. Personally I think Peng is a bit more suspicious than Joe particularly because of his frequently poorly explained actions and lack of participation in the discussion (not that Joe's been much better). Peng, we desperately need the detail and the discussion to pick out the spiked (and we need more in the thread, looking at you too Hero. I'm pretty sure you're not spiked, but you can do better than this), please help the discussion. Aside from poor input in the thread what I've heard of Peng in PMs is rather odd behaviour, not necessarily spiked but not something you'd generally expect from a villager.

My vote is for Ash. For the reasons Wilson outlined. I've known what I was going to vote since earlier in the day but I wanted to wait as once a lot of people have voted for someone we get less information from people deciding to vote for them than when it is still reasonably likely/feasible that someone else could get lynched. I was in no hurry to get us toward that lower information state so I waited till now. I need to go sleep shortly and I won't have time to post till after work tomorrow (which is gonna be after the cycle finishes) so this is the last thing I'll be able to do this cycle :/

This has been discussed quite a bit, I think I got all the posts where it was discussed: Wilson Rent Claincy dowanx Weiry Wilson dowanx Claincy Ash Wilson If you can think of any concerns that haven't already been talked about by all means, bring them up! But please at least elaborate a bit on your suspicions rather than just tossing out a vote based on a general statement about a well discussed topic. (And please let me know if I missed any of the discussion.) I'm going to be honest and say that I don't know who to vote for today. As every experienced player knows with a bit of thought you can make a decent alibi for most actions. But we need to vote, so I'm going to vote. I've been looking back through the thread, and read through Wilson's helpful megapost and the people I suspect most now are Wyrm and Ostrich. Sorry Ostrich, but I think overall your actions are the most suspicious with how quickly you have sometimes jumped on votes and sometimes minimal explanation for your votes. This could change before the end of the cycle if I'm convinced otherwise (I will be online) but for now, that's my vote.

Ok, I'm back from work and have helped cook (and eat!) dinner, and I've caught up on PMs and the thread. I apologize for being absent for most of the second part of the day, I was working from 9-5 (5pm here is when the cycle ends) and I only had time to check PMs in the morning and not enough time to post or reply. Fortunately this shouldn't occur again until wednesday. Though, I am quite happy to have my first professional IT job! ...And then I had finally started writing this post and our internet connection cut off!...it's back now, so here's a post. I don't have too much to say about today, partly because I'm just tired. We could guess a number different possibilities from Alaris's vote being soothed -Wilson has access to a soother or mistborn -The spiked have a soother or mistborn and are trying to protect Eolhondras or want Wyrm dead -The spiked have a soother or mistborn and are trying to throw even more suspicion on him -The spiked didn't care that much who died so long as someone did Conclusion? Not sure, let's keep a close eye on vote manipulation in the next round and we might be able to sus it out. Sorry that isn't overly helpful I think I had a point before the net went but it's gone now: tired. :/ Ok, that does make sense. Hope you're having a good time there One quick suggestion, rather than just saying you didn't want to participate in the discussion which is kinda suspicious sounding, you would perhaps be better off mentioning limited wifi access to start with or even just say that "I unfortunately can't participate in the discussion much for rl reasons." if you didn't want to say anything about your personal life. *shrug* would just be a little less suspicious.

On the 4th of January when all this discussion was going on you said you were "in the Melbourne timezone" were you not in China at that point? I'm a little confused on this point.

First up, a quick vote summary: Ostrich(2) - Eoladdin, Reeco Eoladdin(2) - Herwynbe, Riew Ashette(1) - Wilson<1>, Maill Macen(1) - Seonid Wyra(1) - Wilson<2> Wilson(1) - dowanx Peng(1) - Wyra<2> Reeco(1) - Aralis Jain(1) - Claincy Herwynbe(0) - Wyra<1> Another point on this is that of all the players in the game, the most prominent ones are the most likely to be lurched. If the spiked wanted to make sure they got a kill that might be a factor in leaving us alone. Perhaps more importantly if Wilson or I were a seeker we would have been very unlikely to put ourselves in this position at this point in the game so if they want to eliminate the seeker/s as fast as possible (which would make sense) that would be another reason to be targeting other players. Combining these thoughts with what Wilson already said I'm not particularly surprised that we aren't dead yet. Pleased, but not overly surprised. I still don't think Wilson is spiked, though I am marginally less sure about that than I was before, hopefully a seeker is sure by now. I am quite uncertain about Eol at this point. I don't think he's the most suspicious player at the moment, but to some extent I'm tempted to vote for him anyway. Before you start clamoring for my head let me explain: Eol has been rather involved and connected with some of the other players under suspicion and with both being voted for and voting himself. And there was the whole tineye thing and more importantly how everyone responded to it. Because of all that I think that finding out whether he is a villager or spiked for certain would give us a wealth of information which makes him a tempting target. I am also suspicious of Jain, a large part of my suspicion is because of this (I know it was a little while ago but it wasn't till a little later that this really stuck out to me): Promoting that there should be a discussion but deciding not to take part in it is decidedly unhelpful. I'd really like to hear some of your thoughts. I don't think Hero is spiked either, though the reasons for that haven't changed since I last posted about that. I am also somewhat suspicious of Ashette, Ostrich, Winter and maybe Peng, though I think Peng is just genuinely borderline inactive.

I really don't think Wilson is spiked. I stand by the assertion that trying to set up and encourage PMs as she has been doing is not something a spiked would be at all likely to do. (Trying to build a smaller group of "trusted" players is a normal thing for spiked, trying to get everyone communicating like this is not.) Beyond that she has been very actively investigating potential spiked and trying to confirm their innocence or guilt and her reasoning for votes and suspicions has been solid. It is possible that she is spiked but I doubt it, hopefully a seeker will be able to confirm her allignment soon.