Claincy
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Everything posted by Claincy
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Role reveals everywhere! You could all be just a touch more careful couldn't you? Though I suppose Wilson would have been known sooner rather than later given how difficult the Queen's role is to conceal. Still, the cultists now have a good number of tempting targets which makes it even harder for our warriors to do their job. Responding to Meta's reasons for suspecting me: I've been active for roughly a full cycle at this point, in which time I have made multiple posts, aired suspicions and contributed to the discussion. Yeah, I'm still not as active as I've sometimes been and frankly I'm not going to be. I'm still sick & in exam period so frankly there are limits to how much energy and time I can devote to the game. Speaking of, it's past 1am at this point and I'd like to recover sometime in the next fortnight if at all possible (time-scale not actually a joke), so I should really go to sleep. And besides, it's nighttime, I can hopefully get some proper analysis and discussion done tomorrow.
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I have no expectations of you playing like Wilson or Kasimir, that would be totally unreasonable not just as a matter of experience but also rather major time commitments. I rarely have the time or energy to go to that level of detail myself. Notes are also optional and I often don't take them myself, rarely have time to do them properly. All that said. 3 games is more than sufficient to be involved in the discussion. Multiple people have already done suspicious things, some more than others, and have been called out on it in the thread. Do you think Maill is suspicious as Alvron and twelfthrootoftwo do? What about Kae or Jain or dowanx. You don't have to be right, more often than not we get it wrong. But the more people who speak up saying who they think is suspicious the higher the chance that we get the right ones. So tell us what you think The reason I voted for you is that avoiding voting for other players while still remaining active in the thread can be a quite effective way for a spiked to stay under the radar. Additionally when players don't voice their suspicions they don't really help us catch the cultists. Personally I think: -dowanx is still a little suspicious but I don't blame him for the day 2 bandwagon -Maill is being less helpful than I expected, not sure if that's irl stuff limiting his activity or no -People are calling out Wonko but also, everyone else who has a Seon, have any of you contacted Elantris yet, what's going on? -Some part of me wonders why Wilson hasn't posted for a bit but that's really just paranoia, I don't really think she's a cultist. -Bort? maybe, still considering, some of the arguments about him being a cultist have felt decidedly shaky My vote stays where it is for now. I may or may not have opportunity to post again tomorrow before the end of the day. So apologies to everyone who's actually posting, I'm not apologising to everyone who isn't
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Good that we didn't lose anyone, a little frustrating that we can't really learn anything from it till whoever it was speaks up. Though it could be that Seonid is right and the cultists targeted an Elantrian last night. If that was the case it probably wasn't Sienene as someone would have to have given him the pendant since last night which I suppose is possible, but seems unlikely. I'm not in favour of killing Ostrich or Piff today as it is entirely possible that they responded to the GM PM day one and have been inactive since then. If that is the case and we wait one more cycle we will get someone more useful replacing them. If another cycle passes and they aren't replaced by a pinch hitter then we will know that they are or at least were active behind the scenes and the odds they are one of the cultists or the gyorn significantly increases. As things stand I think the odds of a complete inactive being a cultist are lower than the odds of an active or semi-active player being a cultist as they would have the other cultists trying to get them to be at least a little active and people are generally less likely to go inactive if they have an interesting role. @Meta, your call for people to discuss would be a little better if you gave reasons for the other half of your suspicions Though having said that I'm running out of time here (I've been trawling through the thread to try to refresh my memory and get a feel for how everyone is playing) so I don't have time to go into much detail myself. I'll post more when I get home again but just quickly: -Still trying to work out if Jain is a villager who made a mistake or two or a cultist who made a mistake or two -I've noticed that Hene Bata seems to be slipping under the radar. They've been active but haven't contributed much to the discussion and, (unless I missed it) haven't yet expressed suspicion towards anyone. Most of their posts that I recall have been about what we should discuss, without actually discussing much. I'll be back on in a few hours and have the time to write more then.
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I've got my eye on you Now it seems to me that this would be a good time to point to a couple of other worthy posts -Thaylen and Alethi Glyph Translation -Translation of the cover page of 'The Treatise Metallurgic' -An Alethi Font and transliterator, more recently posted here -Glyphs for Profiles -Hidden things in map of roshar -Chasm fan art, and Lyraina's other fan art -And ExMachinas art Oh, and maybe some of this persons posts There are plenty of others as well of course, but these are the first I thought of or refound.
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I just wanted to pop in to say that this is a great idea and sounds really awesome. No way I can afford the time to join though :'(
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Hmm, good to know. That said there is still no reason they have to happen if people are active in the thread and don't wait till the final hours of the day to make decisions. (Yeah I know, I've been inactive so who'm I to talk right?) Couple of things I'm thinking: 1) Just because something goes badly once doesn't mean that it's likely to always go badly, of course they may not have thought that part through and simply reacted to it going badly once or could have reached a different conclusion to me. 2) I'm not sure that it's safe to say that the bandwagon was bad for the cultists. It certainly may have been, but it also may not have been. How could it have been directly good for them? This is decidedly unlikely, but theoretically possible if Fel's original role was, say, a warrior or priest. If they somehow guessed or found out about this then they would have been more likely to be involved in creating or growing the bandwagon. To be clear, I don't think this is likely, and if it was the case Mek would probably be dead by now. Unless maybe if he is the warrior and they thought he would be defending himself. All of that varies from quite unlikely to barely feasible How could it have been directly bad for them? This one is obvious and has been stated already, if Fel was originally a cultist and it's a simple fluke that they now have Mek instead. Maybe more likely than the above possibility, but still roughly 1/5-1/6 chance given that the target was effectively random. If the voting manipulation was a last ditch attempt to save Fel then that would be a different story, but we don't really know that either. The thing with the manipulation is that given the timing of the bandwagon and the cycle ticking over it seems just as likely, or more likely that it was done beforehand to secure Mek's death, the only reason it would reasonably be to save Fel is if Fel was a cultist. So we have 2 possibilities that are both less than average chance on their own, but if one is true the other is far more likely, but conversely if one is not true the other is considerably less likely. So it is possible but it wouldn't be my first guess. The other possibility is that Fel was also a villager and so the outcome didn't really matter to the cultists. The one thing I would add here is that if all 3 are villagers, the sudden bandwagon on Fel would be slightly better for the spiked as it leaves the main lynch targets (both villagers) alive and well and leaves suspicion as to why they are both alive and well that is somewhat liable to get them lynched. Obviously this didn't exactly pan out with the Mek/Fel confusion and then their murder of Orlok (which is still a bit confusing). That said the relative activity of Mek/Orlok compared to Fel balances out that advantage, though I doubt they would have been able to get a bandwagon like that going on a more active player if they wanted to. Really my point is that I'm not at all sure that the cultists are against the bandwagonning and I think the bandwagonning is an overall bad thing for the citizens and putting suspicion on everyone who speaks against it for speaking against it (like me now I spose since I threw myself into this discussion) isn't helpful to the citizens, unless of course the people speaking against it are cultists trying to gain trust (which clearly isn't working). The same old I know you know I know....whatever. Edit: If it wasn't obvious, I have a bit more time on my hands now. My Uni classes for the semester finished yesterday
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One thing that confuses me, why are people talking about Bort coming forward as having been duked? Just looking at the votes already tells us that. I checked through yesterdays thread and I didn't see Bort remove his vote anywhere so the prince/princess couldn't have shifted his vote. So why are we spending time discussing whether "revealing" it makes him more or less suspicious? (Just checking I understand what you're saying.) So you think that the Cultists do not like the sudden bandwagons because if one of them was targeted by one they wouldn't have much of an opportunity to prevent it and so they are likely to argue/have been arguing against those bandwagons in the thread? I'm not sure I agree with that logic. I think the late bandwagons are bad for the citizens. We can spend all day discussing between a couple of targets, and there is information we get from that. But a lot of that information is very speculative until we actually lynch someone involved and learn their alignment and if we lynch someone entirely different at the last minute we don't get that. For a simple example: when an eliminator is under suspicion and some people are pressing them and others are defending them. Whoever started the suspicion on them or joined it early is less likely to be an eliminator and those who defended them are more likely. Sure people do all kinds of tricksy things but the basis of choosing targets for lynching is built off information like this. If none of the people being discussed are lynched we don't get that information. Sure we know that X was suspicious of Y and Z was defending them but without a clear indicator of any one of them being guilty or innocent it doesn't tell us nearly as much. Course the eliminators might view things differently to me and it's entirely possible that they would speak out against them but I think the bandwagons are more detrimental to the citizens than the eliminators. If the trend continues it could also be relatively easy and safe for the eliminators to cause a last minute bandwagon whether or not they have done so so far. (And yes I am aware that I just went, "Oh hey Meta, so you're suspicious of people who say this thing?" *Says this thing*)
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Hmm, then I suppose if Syl wants to pick something up/carry something or generally effect something in the physical realm in any meaningful way she will become visible to anyone.
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No. My activity levels vary but it's always more than this. As I noted when I signed up I really can't participate in the early couple of cycles, I just don't have the time (or health). I am barely mostly managing to catch up with the thread at irregular intervals. So at least when I do have time to participate in another couple of days I won't have to spend hours trying to work out what the heck is going on.
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Well that was a mess. That's gotta be one of the last minute bandwagony last minute bandwagons I have ever seen. I don't think Wilson is to blame, it's not so much that I doubt she could set it up, I just don't see a sufficient motive (If it was me dead I'd be telling a different story..or..well..not I suppose, anyhow. As I noted when I signed up I'm kinda busy atm hence my inability to post till now. I was able to read the thread a bit and try to keep up, but I didn't have enough time to actually work out what was going on or post again before the end of the day.There won't really be much discussion in this post as my head's still really painful, I'm already really tired and I need to be up early tomorrow so....yeah, fun times! But I haven't been lynched for being me thus far, so that's excellent Some rp, cos I need to get this intro up sooner rather than later. Clancy had stayed here too long. He should have left weeks ago, hopped to another world and taken on a new identity, disappearing into the shadows as he had been doing since Tyrian falls. He had no doubt he was still being hunted, the little hints and pieces of information about his pursuer he had managed to discover painted a picture of someone with an unwavering determination and totally without scruples. He wasn't entirely sure what connection she, whoever she was, had with Wilson, but whatever it was, it was enough for her to want him very, very dead. It wasn't the pain or danger of the crossing that kept him here, he was almost certainly putting himself in more danger by staying. It was the city, there was something truly fascinating about it. Clancy had a deep interest in broken things and he had to know what broke it, and if it could be fixed. And if the broken city could be repaired, perhaps....Clancy barely let himself consider the possibility. But if it was possible, it would be worth any risk.
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I don't have much time, but here's my couple of cents: As far as I remember I've always been in favour of lynching/discussions from the word go (excepting the first game) and my opinion on that is unlikely to change. Basically for the same reasons that Kasimir outlined. That out of the way, a couple of things that have been brought up are debtor/s and Elantrians and whether there would be an eliminator among them. I haven't been part of a game with Hero or Tulir GMing before which makes it harder to guess how random or deliberate they would be with role assignments, still. Elantrians: It's possible that there is an Elantrian cultist, but I don't think we should prioritise attacking the Elantrians to find out: -At least until (and if) Elantris is destroyed an Elantrian cultist is a bit less dangerous than a normal one in my estimation as they can only kill other Elantrians -I also think that Elantris being restored is likely, on balance, to be better for us than for the cultists as there will very likely be significantly more citizens than cultists in Elantris, meaning that we get more players with whatever abilities Elantrians get. *shrug* I think generally the higher the number of powered villagers the better chance we have. Debtors: I really don't know if there is a cultist debtor or not. Assuming that there are multiple debtors out there it is entirely possible but I don't know how many there are, or if they were allocated entirely randomly or not. -If we assume entirely randomly then the odds of a cultist debtor being killed if we don't do anything are 1/6-1/5 depending on the number of cultists. (I'd guess 5 cultists given the presence of the Gyorn but I could easily be wrong). Basically the odds don't seem better than if we pick someone to lynch ourselves. -If Wilson is right and the Cultists have a number of vote manipulation roles then if we leave the vote near a tie then a citizen will die, regardless of whether they have a debtor or not and we won't gain any particularly useful information from the death. For now I would like to know what Gerald Hobbes thinks.
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Having a Bad Day? Stop here for a Good Rant!
Claincy replied to traceria's topic in General Discussion
My body and I have a long-standing disagreement on when is an appropriate time to be sick. Aside from it thinking that every couple of weeks or so is reasonable it apparently decided that my final two weeks of uni classes ever (half-way through said weeks atm) with multiple major assessment tasks due was a fantastic time for constant headaches. Awesome. -
Heh, quite possibly. Though most of them aren't really manipulative enough...hm...Saffron maybe? (Just in case it wasn't clear (cos that could possibly be taken the wrong way), in the context of SE that's a compliment to your manipulative skills.)
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yep
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Ah, been a while since I read that one. A pair of professionals enter an excessively elaborate grudge match to the death.
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Not sure I want to guess it, but The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe kind of?
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You Know You're a Sanderfan When...
Claincy replied to Shardbearer's topic in General Brandon Discussion
When you learn to flip a coin over your knuckles largely so you can do it the next time one of your roleplaying groups encounters a certain particularly powerful coinshot (Also partly because it's cool, and also because I often idly fidget with things when I'm thinking and unlike pens, coins don't leave ink marks all over my hands ) Edit: As it turns out, it actually feels quite good and a little calming somehow. Not sure I could say exactly why though. -
Actually, been thinking about that and I have a feeling that I might have been the one wielding the spike. We were all involved though. Killing teammates with spikes? Hmm, I'm sure it would be, course if I'm a cultist and a lover with a non-cultist it might actually be necessary *evil grin*. (Sidenote: I know I said I wouldn't have time to really play in the early part of the game and have then preceded to post a ton pre-game. I've been sick and been resting a bit more as a result.)
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Hrm, yeah that is an interesting theory. The further question then would be if the forgeries would stick if he left them somewhere away from him.
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Heh, M.A.D. Honestly that role still feels a little strange to me, not mechanically, thematically. We're kidnapping someone without them noticing. Yeah yeah, I know warbreaker, still Well, yeah. Aren't we all?
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Yeah ok. I have mostly myself to blame. But your low survival chance this game is largely your own fault too so there's that. I do apologise for that, that wasn't how it was supposed to go. It was time for you to die that game, but the execution wasn't up to scratch. Don't worry though, I've been practicing Funny thing is, I'm not actually sure that I will kill you if I get the chance, at least in the early game. Unless I think you have an effective way to kill me that is
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Normally this is where I would suggest that we work together to try to make sure we both make it through the early game. Somehow I don't think that's gonna be an option this time. Well, we only have ourselves and eachother to blame eh?
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You know me well enough by now to know that I prioritise what I think would make for the most interesting game, followed by what I think would be most amusing. (Like the current conversation, highly amusing ) Thing is, being a lover this game would be great for me, having at least 1 person in the game who didn't want me dead, (either as a threat or for revenge), even though I'd die if they did, it would still increase my chances of survival If anyone gets paired with me their survival chance just dropped through the floor.
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Yeah, pretty sure the entire point of the Lovers is to cause hilarity Oh I think when someone is trying to kill you expectations of civility go for a tea break eh? Sooooo, just a question....what if I get dula?
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...I had forgotten that would be in this game. Yes, that would be hilarious, even more so if she was a cultist and so had the power to kill me but couldn't XD Replace Gamma with Meta and you've still got a pretty awesome (in my totally non-biased opinion) combination
