Wyrmhero
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Everything posted by Wyrmhero
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So we already have a metagame (I will never cease to find that word amusing in this context) if Meta doesn't die... Heron, a Hemalurgic Scholar, shall sign up for this. After barely surviving the riots in Kholinar, he's looking for somewhere to recouperate and recharge his metals, so it's kind of a shame that he's chosen to rest in the middle of a rather violent debate on the nature of the Cosmere between Hoid and the Sharders...
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Looking at the actions over the game, it seems the only ones protecting the camp were the Forgotten themselves >>. The game probably could've gone a lot quicker if we had predicted that and were less concerned with following some kind of overarching plan.
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Long Game 9: The Empty Throne Part 1: The Barrow Barons
Wyrmhero replied to Alvron's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I'm afraid that the Hand of the Inquisition will have to manage on his own . I am rather busy these coming weeks, and I will also be absent for at least a Cycle-and-a-half. If it was near the end of the game, then I could assume that I wasn't going to survive that long as say it didn't matter, but it's just next weekend, so I don't think I could easily get away with it. So my apologies, but I'm sitting this one out (and letting the heat die down somewhat as well >>). -
I feel bad about advocating Meta's death early on in two games in a row, but in my defence, I am absolutely terrified of him as a player . I'm surprised you didn't go for myself and Jain. That was part of what I was trying to go for with my defence of him, getting Jain lynched after my death.
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Well, I guess now you know why I was adamant that you were innocent?
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I am shocked, shocked I tell you, to hear you accuse me of that! After all the work I've done, trying to get people to discuss stuff and my tireless efforts in rooting out Villagers for you. You guys shouldn't even listen to anything Kas says. He's a Forgotten, and Forgotten always lie. But anyway, there's someone else to find too. Personally, I think Alvron's the most suspicious of everyone. He practically told me to airstrike Ashiok like that, singling him out and calling down the King's Wrath on him, and then it turns out he was innocent all along. So, what have you got to say for yourself?
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Well, if there are two, that would be absolutely great. It's a lot easier to find two people who are connected than three - in which case, my suspicions would definitely fall on Araris and Ashiok, considering Ashiok's defence and Araris' briefness as of late. If there are two, then we only need one person to Line of Warding this Cycle to be safe (even if Joel isn't the Sentry, we do have one). That would, presumably, remain the same regardless of whether or not we lynch one, since the Sentry counts for the camp's defence on the Cycle they die too. In this case, we need two defenders to be safe against Lines of Vigor, and either three or four Lines of Vigor to use (I would be surprised if we had just one Non-Rithmatist). However, let's be a little pessimistic here. If there are indeed three, then we need at least two people to Line of Warding this Cycle - Perhaps three, just to be safe against Lines of Vigor. So in this scenario, three people defend, the Forgotten kill someone and possibly use Lines of Vigor on who they think are our defenders. This gives us just two people free, one of whom is probably a Non-Rithmatist, and so just one Line of Vigor. So in the worst-case scenario (which we should definitely plan for, I think), I would suggest that we only have one Line of Vigor spare, unless we want to risk the Wild Chalkling kill. Best case, we overshoot a little, but that's not really a bad thing, considering. The Line of Vigor can't be blocked either, so we could take a guess at who the killer is and try to stop them. But at the same time, what if we were going to lynch an Eliminator, and they block it with a Line of Forbiddance, and we didn't Line of Vigor them? I think it's a gamble either way, to be honest, and I'm not sure which would be better, considering we could just accidentally take out our camp defences if we target the wrong person. What do other people think?
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Glad we had some proper discussion overnight, to draw people out. Ashiok is certainly looking a heck of a lot more suspicious now. I'm not sure how useful using a Line of Forbiddance is though, considering if everyone did that, we would definitely invite the Chalking kill. It could be worth taking that risk though. At the very least, it's probably worth everyone who isn't on Warding duty using it. Regardless though, it's a bit of a relief to know that the Wild Chalking kill has a decent chance of not actually getting through (but not one we can rely on). However, if the person we lynch uses it, then it could just set us back another day, like it did with Kal in QF2. So I would agree with Alvron's suggestion to Line of Vigor that person. If they're a Forgotten, then we need the kill, either to reduce their numbers late in the game, or to get the information for the definitely difficult next day. Hopefully someone has Advanced Rithmatics and can help us prevent a sticky situation. Having said that, we still need information today. We need to get as much as possible to make the lynch, so while it might certainly be Ashiok, that doesn't mean we should stop searching there. I would like to draw out some more discussion from Araris. Do you really not have any suspicions this late in the game? That does seem strange to me, and in fact only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.
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Can we have the votes for last Cycle please, Smart? So it looks like I was wrong about Tulir, which is annoying at this stage in the game. Makes me wonder why he didn't say his Role though. Maybe he just thought he wouldn't believe him, I guess. We lost Gamma as well, but at least we've only lost one Rithmatist this Cycle - though small comfort that is. With our 'Sentry' (sorry, I'm still not able to 100% believe you, Joel. Call it healthy paranoia) still alive, we might be okay this Cycle. It is possible that we need to lynch the right guy or lose though, so we need people to actually contribute. I think we can safely come to the conclusion that the Forgotten are taking out the more experienced players first. So the actual deaths themselves aren't too important, but the order could be. Meta was first. I've said that was unsurprising, as he's a good and dangerous player for either side to have. I don't think that tells us too much. Will made a plan for us to follow and was then bumped off. This does suggest that the Forgotten didn't want the village to have a plan, or someone in charge at the very least. There is the possibility that one of them wanted to take over planning, which would point towards Joel. Aonar posted about his new Rithmatic Lines and was then killed. I am doubtful that these two facts are anything more than a coincidence though, considering he posted it late in the Cycle, and he had to be hit by both a Line of Vigor and the kill at the same time. It could suggest that the Forgotten killed him while his logic pointed towards Ashiok being innocent, but that may be a bit too convoluted a plot to have happened. Gamma's death though doesn't make too much sense to me. He argued against a few plans and voted for inactives for the most part. I would have suspected someone who has interacted with him before, such as Kas, except his death was rather late in the game, and I think that would have happened much earlier on if Kas was an Eliminator. For my part this Cycle, I want to collect as much information as possible, so we can figure things out. We're not quite in lynch-or-lose yet, but we will be next Cycle if things go badly for us. Last Cycle, we heard nothing from Ashiok or Araris, and considering how well things seem to be going for the Forgotten, it does make me wonder if they've decided to just be hidden in the shadows, letting us do their work for them. I will vote for Araris, for now, and see what he says.
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If I chose to vote for someone, I am either going to vote for someone with no votes, or as the tiebreaker. Well, I already am the tiebreaker. I'd really like to have more information at hand here, but the Cycle ends in about four hours, and considering the timezone issue, I don't think I will get anything new to go on. Of the three current choices up for the lynch, only Tulir has come online and defended himself, but I'm not satisfied with his defence. No reasoning given for a vote like that sparks me as very strange, particularly this late in the game. Why is Gamma suspicious to you, Tulir? Just because he's inactive? Or is there really no reason at all? There are a few flaws in this plan. In order of increasing importance: Firstly, it's a bit too late in the Cycle for us to switch to that plan, though it could certainly be used tomorrow. Secondly, all it takes for things to go wrong is someone not being a Rithmatist and therefore unable to check on the next person to muddle things a bit. By your suggestion, we'd all be looking at the other group for the killer instead of the actual one. Thirdly, there's no reason for the Forgotten to use Lines of Warding with this plan. It just gives the Forgotten free reign when they're meant to be using Lines of Warding. The plan doesn't really work, sadly. We need the Lines of Making in order to ensure that the other half isn't doing the kill, but all that suggests is that the kill is coming from the half using the Lines of Warding rather than Vigor.
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Thank you Alvron. Hope it gets a bit easier for you soon then. I will do what you didn't do in your post and suggestions of suspicion, and put a vote on Tulir, but not for any reason other than provoking discussion from him. It's been almost a full day since the Cycle started, and we haven't heard from Tulir, Twei, Gamma, Araris or Ashiok. That's half the players still in the game, which is far too much in my opinion. Kas and Jain do bring up good points about why Joel should have been targeted last Cycle with the kill. We are getting into dangerous waters with regards to the number of people able to use Lines of Warding, and it is possible that the death of a Sentry could tip us over the edge there. Losing a person each Cycle in an unblockable manner would hurt us a lot at this point. But that just muddies the waters even further. Why wouldn't they do this if it was so useful? Anyone else have any thoughts on that?
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So it's interesting that Joel is indeed alive. We have some information here - The Forgotten wanted to kill Aonar more than they did Joel. Interestingly, they even apparently used a Line of Vigor as well to ensure it (assuming the writeup is correct), so it's not as if they expected that Joel was baiting them with that knowledge and that it wouldn't get through. There are a couple of reasons I can think of as to why they'd do that: They expected Joel to be lying about his being a Sentry. I'm doubtful of this, as such a claim should probably be checked out as a matter of course anyway. Joel was only in mild danger at the time, so the claim does seem slightly suspicious, but if we consider that he wouldn't be able to defend himself that Cycle, then it becomes less so. Aonar was a lot more dangerous in their eyes than Joel/a Sentry. Perhaps Aonar was getting close to something that they didn't like, and wanted to kill him before he shared his conclusion. I am also doubtful of this though - Chase turned out to be innocent, and Aonar admitted to not having much of a conclusion on the previous Cycle with his diagram. It could however be a bit of a long-term plan with Ashiok, since Aonar believed that if one was innocent, both were. I find this doubtful as well, since Aonar said this late in the cycle. The Forgotten are not expecting to make any Wild Chalkling kills, and so don't care about the Sentry. In their eyes, any Rithmatist is good enough for them. As an aside, this suggests that Aonar's death doesn't 'hurt' our first Cycle defences, since he was apparently Line of Vigor'ed. They think we will lynch Joel for them. Joel looks a little suspicious, sure, but there weren't that many votes on him at the time. They could perhaps have changed targets late in the Cycle, but there weren't many posts after Joel left, so I doubt it. Joel is a Forgotten, who panicked a little and fakeclaimed in order to pass suspicion. If it was this, then it certainly worked. Only Ashiok, Jain and I discussed this, so we didn't get anywhere. We should probably scruitinise this a little more, with more input from other people. Of these, I think that either the Forgotten don't care about the Wild Chalkling kill, or Joel is a Forgotten himself. I am still suspicious of Ashiok as well, however, because I just think things fall a little too neatly into place, and he's not been very helpful this game. It might be nothing, I admit, but I am still slightly uneasy. However, my current vote is for Alvron, because he didn't turn up at all last Cycle. I didn't even notice it until looking at the previous thread just now. It was a while ago now, but I seem to recall him being relatively hidden away when he was an Eliminator in LG5, and this feels similar. His game is being set up as well, so I don't think he can claim to be busy.
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The question here then is whether or not Joel is claiming to be the Sentry legitimately or not. It's not a role we can test for, so it's a safe role to claim. It could just be that Joel wants to avoid being lynched by claiming that. But at the same time, we can't just lynch him to test that, since it's a more and more vital role as we continue on with the game, so we must scrutinise this claim. He voted for Jain in both Cycle 1 and 2, and Ashiok this Cycle. Now, I've already said that I didn't like his reasoning for voting for Jain, and now I'm wondering if his gut is a Forsaken Forgotten. His vote for Ashiok is, in my opinion, a bit more solid. Ashiok has not contributed much to discussions, and has not voted yet, I believe. That is starting to add up a little bit in my mind. He has also pretty clearly laid out his suspicions earlier on, which is good. There could perhaps be some misdirection in his grouping of trust/don't trust, but it would be a pretty big risk to try that, I think. Is it worth enough of a risk of a Sentry (perhaps our only one) to kill a Forgotten? In this case... I don't think so. Joel doesn't yet strike me as a Forgotten in an obvious manner. Don't let me be the only one to think about this though - It would be dangerous to simply take him at his word without considering it. Honestly, at the moment I don't know who to vote for. I may feel different in the morning, but I think there's still a lot of discussion to be had over the next fifteen-or-so hours. I'll reassess the situation then. For now... We haven't heard from Will this Cycle. Edit: ...Of course we haven't heard from Will this Cycle. My defence is that it's late >>. Leaving that mistake there for posterity. We haven't heard from Roland yet this Cycle, but I'm not suspicious of him at the moment, due to his actions on the first Cycle. Hmm... I would still like to hear Chase's reasonings for voting as she has so far.
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Thanks for dropping in, Kas. Removing my vote, despite wishing for a bit of a better contribution, because it won't really go anywhere since you probably won't be replying again this Cycle. Hope you feel better soon. That's not entirely true though, is it? Because the Forgotten would just need to Vigor and Kill that Cycle to take them out (assuming that there is a point to killing them at all, other than them being confirmed Rithmatists). While the fact that someone reveals that they have prevented a kill is not putting them into danger, the question then becomes 'what happens if multiple people LoV?'. The more people who switch, the less defend us, and the more likely we are to have multiple people claim to have hit someone with a LoV. Even if we do stop a Forgotten this way, we could have three or four targets to lynch. It narrows it down quite a bit, certainly, but it's not as immediately useful as it at first appears. For now, I'm going to ask Rulit and Joel why they voted for Jain last Cycle. As I said before, Jain doesn't seem like he should have provoked a potential lynch there. One vote yes, but two? Rulit also voted for Jain because he hadn't posted, then shortly after when Jain did post, Rulit didn't remove it. In fact, Jain posted twice, and considering the time when Rulit voted for Dui, there should have been more than enough time for him to retract that vote. So I'd like to know why that was not removed. Joel however I am more suspicious of, because his argument was basically that Jain seemed to be playing less erratically than usual, after multiple games in which Jain has said he wants to be taken more seriously as a player. I just find it interesting that he has conveniently forgotten that. Jain could be playing a long game, of course, but I am doubtful.
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I'm still hoping that Chase will give us a reason for suspicions, even if its just getting people to say stuff, but I'm going to remove the vote because I feel I've wasted a little too much time on that. I do note that we haven't heard from Kas this Cycle yet, and even though he said he was busy, it has been almost 24 hours since then. From what I can tell from our conversational PMs, he isn't online much at the moment. We also haven't heard from Gamma yet, despite the fact that he's definitely been online. I think I will vote for Kas for the moment, since Gamma's already got a vote on him. I would doubt that killing opposites is what is going on, considering this would be one of the first things that we would think of. Although, admittedly, it's quite possible we'd immediately dismiss it out-of-hand, and the Forgotten are taking advantage of that. At the same time though, I don't think Meta's death tells us that they're not doing that, considering Meta is a dangerous player, or perhaps it just means that the plan was developed afterwards. And even if it is what they're trying, noticing that fact may have changed their plans. Sorry, I think I've second-guessed a little too much there. I think there's still not quite enough information to come to a conclusion there, but their reaction could perhaps tell us something (although figuring out if it's a reaction may be a little difficult). It will be interesting to see which 'half' of the players get attacked this Cycle. I think that will be more important than anything else, at this stage in the game, as it could suggest which side they're on, or their overall plans at least with regards to how we're setting the camp defences up.
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Thanks for the reply. Removing my vote from Ashiok. Now, not sure who to vote for again, other than to place it back onto Chase and hope he doesn't just give a reaction vote and nothing else like last time.
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So we're now two Rithmatists down, but hopefully we're not in too dangerous a position. We're also safe with regards to Wild Chalkings, as well. Unless Meta also did a Line of Warding first Cycle and was the tipping point for our defence (highly unlikely, for an Artist), then we should still have enough with our current plans. If everyone who used a Line of Warding on Cycle 1 does it again this Cycle, then we'll be safe today. Mailliw's death is similar to Meta's, in that it's an experienced player, so it's not so surprising. Vote-wise, this Cycle Araris voted for Mailliw, and Mailliw voted for Aonar, and last Cycle he voted for Alvron. I don't think that tells us much though. I'm doubtful that anyone would be that obvious with regards to this attack. Unless it's a double bluff, in which case it's anyone's guess. So either it's for his planning (in which case I'd possibly look at Gamma and Aonar, since they were against it, but I'm not sure), his experience in general, or his votes. I'm doubting it's the third, but the first two don't really tell us anything about who did it. As for this Cycle's current vote, I'm still looking for more of a reason from Chase other than a reactive vote against me. Ashiok also noted that the previous Cycle was not productive, but didn't try to make it so, which I find strange, so I wouldn't mind an explanation for that.
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I was hoping to come online today and be able to remove my vote, but I don't like that Chase's response was basically just to counter-vote. That's a shame, because I'd rather avoid a tie vote like this, but I don't really see a reason to switch. A vote for someone else would be a vote for Jain at this point, and I'm not really suspicious of Jain at the moment. Not more than Chase, certainly. With only 8 hours (or so) left in the day, it's doubtful that anyone else will post, considering the last few Cycles we've had no-one online during this time. So, we currently have a tie between Jain and Chase. Smart, what happens in the event of a tie for the lynch, in this game?
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Thank you for expanding your answer. I have taken my vote off Tulir. I don't really have much to say about the side 'might' bit there, other than that I didn't actually notice that he'd deleted his account (heck, didn't even know that happened to your name when you did) until Ashiok pointed it out this Cycle, so I was hoping for a little more information, as I really didn't know what was going on. Ashiok brings up an interesting question. Ignoring the fact that telling us that action tells us that - supposedly - they are both Rithmatists (though arguably that's not so damaging in this game since everyone has a Role, and it's unlikely there are many Scholars/Non-Rithmatists), it does suggest that either Chase used Warding out of turn, or used Forbiddance instead of Making, which doesn't make any sense to me for someone relatively under the radar. Could I ask you to explain why you didn't use Making last Cycle? I'm also wary of Kas, since he mentioned deviating as well, but he's already admitted it and given a reason. I suppose I'd like to know why he mentioned it, but considering his plan, it makes sense he'd say what he did - Though we don't have any proof that he did that, I guess. Personally, I am reluctant to jump on the 'this is what I did' wagon, but that may just be lingering sentiment from previous games where roleclaiming like that was very obviously a bad idea. Considering most of us will have the same role, it could work, since it doesn't give too much away.
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The timestamp I see says 5:30 AM (correcting for GMT), and the first post of Cycle 1 said it was meant to be over at 8 AM. This Cycle didn't start for another six hours though, so you're right about that. But are you not going to say anything other than that it might have been odd though? I mean, I do find it a little odd, you're right, and I'd like a little more than that before I think about changing my vote.
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Meta was an Artist? That's a painful first death... I'm not surprised that we lost him first, considering it's Meta, but the fact that he happened to have such a useful role, particularly for him, that just makes it worse. I don't think we can figure much out from why he died, but it's still useful to think about the how, as it were. As he was an Artist, I can probably only imagine that he'd do one of two things: Line of Forbiddance, or Line of Making. In the second case, he'd just have to be attacked, but the first one is more interesting. In order to get through a Line of Forbiddance, the Forgotten would have to have used a Line of Vigor as well. I'm not sure which he's more likely to do - Forbiddance to attempt to stay alive longer, or risk a Making to get information for the next Cycle, even if it meant revealing that he was an Artist. But if he did Forbiddance, then it suggests that the Forgotten are doing something similar to the Mutineers in QF2, and are preventing defences from happening with their kills. But again, that depends on how cautiously he was playing this game, and I can't really guess that. But it's still useful to note the possibilities. Anyway, at least our lynch came through for us, even if he was inactive. When I noted previously that lynching an inactive wouldn't really make a difference for us, I'd forgotten that the strength of Wild Chalkling attacks was equal to their number, so we do actually have some leeway now with regards to the camp defences - not that we should become complacent or anything about it, considering we have no idea how many Sentries or Rithmatists we have. Regarding the votes for Dui during the previous Cycle, I would like to hear why Ashiok and Tulir joined in. While it's worked out well for us, I don't think we needed to lynch an inactive so badly that it should have garnered another two votes. Particularly when Tulir posted about two/three hours before the deadline ended. That seems a little like an Eliminator jumping on the lynch of an ally to 'prove' their innocence. While neither Tulir or Ashiok have particularly done anything else that makes me notably suspicious of them, I'd still like to hear their reasoning - Tulir's more than Ashiok's, considering the lateness of Tulir's vote. Smart, regarding thread-merging, the mods are the only ones who can do that, so when Gamma or Meta come online, they'll just do it for you. Also, sorry to be a pain again, but could I please request that the people who voted are either all shown by username or all by character name in the writeup? It's just a little confusing to follow when it's a mix. Thanks.
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Voting to kill a new player who is inactive seems a little cruel to me, but frankly I'm as confused as hell by what's going on there. If we still had time, I'd change my vote and point out that this would be a waste of our lynch, considering inactives don't matter. However, it has suggested a bit of a lynch train going on. I get that he's basically out of the game, but why lynch him instead of ignoring him and trying to go for someone else? At the very least, we don't need another two votes to ensure that lynch. As for the plan, it makes sense. Splitting half-and-half is a good way to do it arbitrarily - unless Mailliw's a Forsaken and it benefits them in some way to stick with that, but I see that as being a little too coincidental. So yes, as I say, I agree with that division.
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Wait, so is that you saying that you're dropping out of the game?
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Thanks for the addition to the first post of the rollover time and player list - But if the Cycle goes from 2PM Sunday to 8AM Monday, doesn't that mean the Cycle is only 42 hours long? Wyatt crouched down and tapped the chalky line with his finger gently - or at least, he tapped the ground behind it, wary of smudging it. This line wasn't drawn well enough. He could tell that just by looking it, with all these years spent on the front lines. Whoever drew this would get a severe reprimanding. Or at least, they would if he still outranked anyone here. He sighed and stood up, surveying the troops, his comrades-in-chalk. They were accusing everyone under the sun, but that was good. This was war, after all. Caution kept you alive, so long as you didn't become paralysed with fear. Actually, one of them was still remaining quiet. Admittedly, someone who ate chalk was probably not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but at the very least he might have something to say. "Well?" Wyatt asked Dui, as he walked back over to the group, "what have you got to say for yourself?" I've removed my vote from Aonar now, since he's discussed quite a bit. I'm pleased that we got a lot of discussion going last Cycle, and as far as I can tell, we only have one inactive. I'm voting for Dui to see if that will get him to post anything, so I'll remove it if he ever shows up under that threat. I find the little flurry of votes on the previous day to be interesting, though I don't think it amounts to much yet. I am somewhat curious as to why Kas and Gamma haven't voted though. Gamma in particular had quite a bit of information to go off when he posted. But I suppose it is still early days and all. We need solid information before any of this is more than conjecture. At the very least, we seem to be heading towards some conclusion currently, even if its just for inactivity. I'd much prefer to lynch someone other than an inactive though, since they wouldn't matter much for the game if they don't turn up. Also, as an MR game, there are probably rules to kill off inactives? Or is that just QF games? Ah well, doesn't matter. As for the discussion on the Lines of Warding, it's difficult to say what we should target. We need enough to actually ensure safety, but at the same time, each one we overestimate by decreases our other opportunities. We also have to remember that you can't use the same Line in a row, so if we use all of our Circles of Protection: Wild Chalkings on the first night, then the next day we're almost guaranteed to have another death. I think we need four Lines of Warding to guarantee being safe (while I can see arguments for there being three Forgotten, it'd be better to be safe than sorry), less the number of Sentries (probably 1, maybe 2? Again, best to be safe). So call it four Lines of Warding that we need drawn to be safe from random deaths, taking into account that one of these players may be a Forgotten who ignores this 'order' in order to kill someone (this gives us 3 + 1, which will be greater than or equal to the number of Forgotten). We should have two teams who alternate between Lines of Warding and another Line (probably Lines of Making?), but the problem there is getting the numbers right. Well, if we find that one Cycle is less protected than we need, then we can try to correct it, though this may be difficult. At the very least, it's a plan for today.
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Could I request a list of players in a spoiler and the time when the Cycle ends (and timezone, preferably with how much ahead/behind GMT it is (slightly selfish request there, since I don't know other timezones )) in the writeups, please? I suppose I should start what has been 'affectionately' termed 'The Wyrm Inquisition', since earlier is always better, particularly with these combined-Turn Cycles. I've seen Aonar floating around on here, but he hasn't posted, and has disappeared. Anything to say?