therunner

No time to answer fully today (sorry about that), but one note to this: there is not evidence the bomb is actually that powerful (to destroy both Elendel and Bilming). The only mention of that is by Sazed who seems to be panicking in the moment, and literally 2-3 sentences prior tells Wayne he has no idea how powerful the bomb is. And immediately afterwards expresses fear that the bomb will set atmosphere on fire (an actual fire physicists had prior to detonation of nuclear bombs). So the statement on hitting both Elendel and Bilming comes from someone who tells us he has no idea what he is talking about, and shortly afterwards makes another estimate we know to be wrong. So I would not put much stock in that estimate. It is still a nuke, and I would assume it would destroy Elendel in entirety, bu I would expect the blast radious to be about ~4-5 miles to destroy Elendel. This would still put it at circa double Fat Man, so about 40 kT.

Soulcasting, they can have as much as they want. They can move it to CR, or build it new ones there outright. So they would need to set up power lines into CR, or continuously supply generators with fuel, to keep the bombs constantly ready. And if they want multiple bombs that means setting up multiple supply lines. Not teleporting to another system, using bondsmith-enhanced Elsecalling to move large amounts of troops to/from CR. Much simpler task. Invested items are more difficult to push, and active fabrials would be invested. But Wax with duralumin might push through, depends on his strength and how invested they would be. No, I am not giving Roshar 10 years specifically to learn about Scadrial. I am mentioning that by TLM Roshar has had 10 years, and one of the leaders of the Radiants (Shallan) specifically decided to focus on fighting Ghostbloods and their leader. And since Ghostbloods are Scadrian organization, that will inevitably lead her to learn about Scadrial. I am not "giving Roshar more and more", I am just saying they have 10 years to learn stuff (both about wider Cosmere and to extend technology), build up forces and resolve one specific issue multiple people have been working on and know about. Scadrial in 8 years went from electricity being a novelty to being a staple, building first AA guns and grenade launchers and starting a military. These planets are progressing fast currently, I am just extrapolating. Why? One Windrunner can carry enough Stormlight to last several Radiants for hours, and there is a lot of Windrunners (being among the more numerous orders). Some would be free to fight. Warfare experience is still experience. Coalition adapted to fighting Regals in the middle of the battle (ending of WoR) and to fighting Fused as well. The reason we are focusing on Radiants is precisely technological advantage of Scadrial. Any one with half a brain will use their superior forces to soften up the enemy as much as possible (i.e. destroy supply lines rendering guns useless etc.) and then send in majority of regular forces to hold the terrain. I am not sure why you are saying I am giving Roshar every conceiveble advantage, when the main speculative thing is them just being able to move off-world. On the other hand, you assume the entire Basin will suddenly become proficient in guerilla warfare apparently and that regular civilians can be trained to become assassin in few weeks. How does coinshots and steel ferrings spiking Radiants turn all of Scadrial population into enemy in the eyes of Rosharans? I don't follow the logic. Apologies, so Nale and Ishar met twice, not once. Still not exactly buddy-buddy relationship, especially since both times one side wanted something from the other. And as @Ookla the Frustrated. pointed out, Ishar has his powers and blade only recently (he could have gotten it only after Sazed was exiled). Organized to push on a thing, not to start fighting in a battle. Mildly different scenarios. Because currently they have no reason to? Since they heal or avoid arrows trivially, and their opponents typically use melee weapons. Using a shield against foe with better ranged options is a no brainer, I am sure they could think of that, it is definitely much less elaborate then setting up nuke-minefield in CR. I am not proposing instant teleport, just teleporting people to/from CR en mass using bondsmit-Elsecaller combination. No need for hyperbolic statements, no one assumes Radiants master every surge, if we did Lightweavers would be throwing around gamma lasers, and Elsecaller would be creating nukes on demand. Yeah, going after organization implies learning about organization. Again, I am not giving Roshar every advantage possible, the most of an 'advantage' is them moving spren and stormlight off-world. The rest is just what they can already do. Again, how will Radiants not notice traps if they have spren for scouting? Or can create their own pathways by tunneling under? Not king's personal gems, just large end expansive gems (emerald broams) of which King is the easiest source. At that point Dalinar could not recharge spheres, and Kaladin needed a lot of charged spheres fast (within the hour) so this was the best source. Outside of them being broams they are not special (maybe a bit better at keeping stormlight, but most spheres are comparable anyway). Talented coinshot, but still just coinshot, well twinborn coinshot with F-Iron. Still does not make him bullet proof or give him superhuman reflexes. And yet, they could not hit him anyway. Sure, but there is a bondsmith bonded to remnants of a Shard, making him a bit more omnipresent. What Kandra, the only one on Roshar is MeLaan, and she just got there. And how would the Kandra get the message back? They would have few weeks heads-up. Ghostbloods are better option thanks to Seon, and they still exist on Roshar. No one assumes Roshar is preparing for invasion for 10 years, only that they are not standing still for 10 years (as you seem to be assuming). Except Dalinar doing things like Connecting Kaladin with spiritweb (most likely) of a dead person for a conversation? That is not impressive to you? Moving spren off-world is a known issue, that is being researched and desired by their new ally (Kalak), if you think they won't work on it or make progress in 10 years, ok. We know it can be done (and indeed is done by TLM, possibly even by others than Hoid), it is a Connection problem, and is not as difficult as it can seem. If you think the thread is over, no need to participate then, no? And no need for the condescension, you assume Scadrial can build multiple nukes using technology they only learned about and hook them up as mines. And the only supply Roshar needs is Stormlight, they have soulcasters (that is how they started Vengeance Pact), plus with how fertile Basin is they can also forage. Except they are doing it at government request, and at the requests of one of the people you are saying they would be afraid of (Marasi) and wife of another? They seem to be covered from every practical angle. Fair enough. I presume we can similarly assume that Malwish will not be cooperating with Basin, or supplying them? As they are now enemy faction with prior grievances.

Malwish, who don't like trading with Basin too much? When the allomantic grenades are rare even among them (per Marasi)? But sure, hundred maybe. 1) The Radiant powers work everywhere, the issue is getting of Roshar with spren, check WoBs they exist. 2) Spheres covered in aluminum could hold charge. 2) Fourth Bridge is large enough to evacuate Hearthstone, which has several hundred people. So they can build ships to carry ~200-300 easily, cutting the number of required ships considerably. 3) How did Scadrial get electricity and bomb in CR? And why is Roshar approaching exactly at the location of the bomb if they are not dependent on the Perpendicularity for movement to and from CR? 1) Again, Roshar is not dependent on Harmony's perpendicularity for movement to and from CR, that is Scadrian limitation. So you cannot really set up a chokepoint like that. Or they use Elsecaller and Bonsmith to Transport them without need for perpendicularity and without need for lightshow. Also even with perpendicularity, it is large enough you don't need to move one by one (see end of Oathbringer). How will Wax duralumin steel-push Radiants in plate? Steel ferring spiking Dalinar would be a smart move, but why is the Roshar not setting up defenses? Like suppresor fabrials, or at the very least attractor fabrials, painrial mines etc. ? They do have 10 years to learn about Scadrial, and Shallan is very motivated to learn about and work against Ghostbloods. Radiants would not be susceptible to illness they would get healed immediately just breathing in Stormlight, only regular Rosharans, and it would not be as bad (see all the Worldhoppers on Roshar vs only one incident of transmissible disease). Why are Windrunner unable to fight? Marsh is seemingly using all of Atium to not die, but even then, he would be considerable danger and would require planning to deal with. But legends of him are spreading through Cosmere, which should allow planning (i.e. use his spikes and Bondsmith to take him over, use abrasion/reverse lashings to immobilize, suppressor fabrial to kill him outright). I don't want Roshar to just win, I merely think that their numbers advantage, their superior Invested Arts and experience in warfare along with some incredibly destructive Surges makes them a match if not a victor, if they can get off-world. Scadrial has a single advantage, and that is guns and related technology (and a couple of steel ferrings, those are deadly). So assuming they can move around is sort of necessity for any sort of discussion, because otherwise the thread ends on "Scadrial cannot get to Roshar, and Roshar cannot get to Scadrial. The End." To remove bond you just need to spike Radiant, fair enough. But originally you talked about giving Scadrians spikes to grant them Radiancy, for which you would have to spike the spren as well. So they do, fair enough. Well Wyndle is saying that his people intentionally send him to give information and to guide Radiant, so it is not due to Lift. For Honorspren, all of them were born/created after Recreance, so they could not have known how to apply Surges etc, for others there would have been similar issue, as those with experience would have been rendered deadeyed. But clearly there are exceptions (i.e. Wyndle, Skybreaker spren). We don't know Ishar had good relations with both him and Nale. All we know is Nale and Kalak have good relatively close relation, and that Ishar once spoke to Nale to start his crusade against Radiants. True on Navani, so it is only when Bondsmith swears Oath anywhere or Windrunners swears Oath close enough. Soulcasters soulcast composite items all the time, metal is still metal to them. From their perspective it is just one big complicated metalmind. A panicking governor hoped all coinshoters would be able to push rocket out, based on what we have seen Coinshots can do, that feat is little beyond them. Coinshots cannot push on metals that are too far from them, where too far is ~100 feet at most. Half-shards are shields, Kaladin used shields in WoK so Roshar knows about shields. And using shields is the first thing you do when your opponent has long range weapons. They don't have low thousands maybe few hundreds at best, they would not have the people to operate them. They have guns on Elendel perimeter and that is it (and those have range of only ~2000 feet so barely 600 meters). They wanted to strike first, despite not even being able to build simple zeppelin. I would not give those voices much credit. Artillery barrel need to be replaced typically every few hundred shots. So if you want to literally cover field in shots, you will have to replace often. Hundred machine guns would do the job if the Rosharans kindly lined up, which might happen in the first battle, so once. America was conquered by colonizers who made deals with natives against other natives and then consistently betrayed them. Oh, and most population was decimated by smallpox and other illnesses. They had 10 years to gather information and Shallan specifically wants to go after Ghostbloods. Plus they have easier access to CR travel thanks to their Invested Arts. If we assume no one makes it anywhere, the whole thread is moot. When did this turn from fighting in a city to pre-prepared murder-holes and traps? And why do you assume Radiants will just run in blind? They have spren that can easily check for traps for them. Dumb people were pushing to strike first, if Malwish have bombers they would crush Northern Scadrial, all they would need is bombers that can fly 600 meters high. Tactics are based around known scenarios, Scadrial does not know about Roshar or their capabilities, so their plans would not be made with them in mind. And again, experience is very important factor. Those trains that move tens of miles per hour only? And I doubt that their factory equipment is ready to be moved, you need to plan for that. And no, Kaladin did that just with spheres on his person, no King's drop or Highstorm. He traveled over a thousand Rosharan miles in half a day, on 3rd Oath (Oathbringer chapter 5, pg. 67). So yeah, Windrunners (and whoever they carry) can strike anywhere in the Basin within 6-12 hours depending on where they start from. Some apparently did. Which makes me question how well can Scadrians (or specifically the Set) shoot, if 200 people cannot hit a single Coinshot in a stairwell. Drain you of Stormlight and provides the resource you need, it still does what it always does. Soulcasting can made anything, Jasnah soulcasted jam (a bad one, but still). With skill they could make alloys. It works along similar lines as Soulstamps (though those are far more precise). Warcamps have latrines, as typically temporary military setup has. Cities do have some basic plumbing. How do they know invasion is coming? They did not know about men of red and gold until they were practically at the door. Even Ghostbloods did not know how bad the situation was. You seem to overestimate their information services. Their AA guns can fire 600 in the air, Windrunners routinely fly higher than that. Plus when they are dropping they could form Shardblade (if they have it) into a Shardshield, no bullets will go through that. Neglecting alerter fabrials, which can be tuned to not trigger only for specific people? Or they can just target all of emotions, like Odium does. Ah, yes, I forgot that Scadrians are as brutal to their own as Russia is. Training will still take months, even if you just want to turn people to assassins. It is not as easy as just telling them to be stealthy and kill people. Plus coppercloud does not block using Invested Arts, so not sure how that would help. Yes, he had to renew days after last meetings. It lasts enough for the individual visits. Jasnah had 6-7 years, depending on when precisely she bonded and needed to hide her abilities for most of that time. We are not talking about mastery of Bondsmithing in general, just resolving one specific issue that others have already been researching, and some have already resolved. And maybe boosting Elsecalling like how he is boosting Lightweaving. Why? Did Jasnah spren suddenly break the bond following the revelation? No, so it is not deal breaker for all Inkspren. Wow, explicit war crimes already, and on your own population no less. I don't think we had using civilians as distraction in the last thread. And what are the metal bars supposed to do? They would not look like souls in CR. No they are not responsible for it, for two reasons we know from RoW The spren willing went along with it, it was not forced upon them. They did not know it would have this consequences. That is very different from what everyone thought happened, i.e. that Radiants needlessly and cruelly killed (worse then killed really) their bonded spren. We know Roshar is considered too dangerous to travel and Ghostbloods still operate there on some limited level. Not sure how this counterfactuals are supposed to be useful or move the conversation along. It is the same as if in the previous thread someone was arguing Harmony splinters himself, or Trell takes over the planet. And they don't need to make chip sized gems, they have them, that is what spheres called chips are. So thread is over then, no conflict is possible. How do you know where to set up copper clouds prior to attack? You cannot cover everyone, there is not enough Metalborn. If he is from secret organization why would he be worried? It is not like they have photos of him, getting lost in city of 5 million would be easy. Especially when government proposed that plan? The blame would fall on government not them. Because Ishar is not his buddy, as explained above. Ishar had one meeting with Nale. Yup, and they had 10 years, 2 Bondsmiths and Sibling for consultation (if they will be willing to talk more about Melishi). Plus whathever Kalak knows, bits from Stormfather and maybe Ishar. And information from Shin, they did have the blades for millenia.

Sure, that would be a way. Even just by transferring the powers to combat capable (i.e. age-wise) people you could double the number of Metalborn that could go to combat. Clever combination of talents that are useless on their own (or could be considerably boosted) would also be a good application, A-duralumin being probably the prime example. Another option would be combining A-Electrum and F-zinc, to get closer to what Atium is like.

What do you mean? We had similar thread after RoW was released? And again, where did I forget Northerners exist? I have no idea what you are referencing here. Bondsmith unchained can (aided) teleport people across planets ( https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15849 ), unaided forcibly move spren to physical without bond and give them form (thought to be impossible), steal Nahel Bond, steal relationship with a Shard (as in the one where Odium considers Dalinar enemy), they could steal powers, breaths, allomancy (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/482/#e15348) and they could even forcibly bond a Shard to something (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/479/#e15173) given enough Investiture. Melishi, the bondsmith that sealed Ba-Ado-Mishram was becoming unchained (they started seeing Connection lines near the end of their tenure), and whatever they did lobotomized entire race across the continent, and removed the most powerful Unmade from the board. So Bondmisths unchained can do pretty much anything regarding Connection, and more. It is kinda like Hemalurgy, but less staby and much more powerful and flexible in many ways. Also, we do know that getting spren off Roshar is question of Connection, please see the WoBs https://wob.coppermind.net/events/369/#e11688 , https://wob.coppermind.net/events/36/#e1474 , https://wob.coppermind.net/events/354/#e11369 , https://wob.coppermind.net/events/36/#e1537 (on Heralds, but it is the same principle). (And per some of these it is not necessarily hard, just tricky Vasher does know how to do it thought Investiture of Endowment could be less 'sticky'). On previous pages I think you would find that typically Dawnshard (and intervention of Shards) are considered out-of-scope. Roshar would not necessarily get all 10 full Orders (unless we are considering both planets fully united), but they would have low thousands of Radiants, keeping with the progression and the large population of Spren. For Surge Fabrials, we are typically only considering those seen, so Soulcasters, and maybe some of Progression (thought those are apparently rare so they get ignored). If we are considering at the time of TLM, we don't extrapolate much further for Scadrial, i.e. no new tech, or deeper integration of tech, but greater production sure and exploitation of known technology sure. We could make it more extrapolate, but even then fleet of H-T rockets would be impossible, because they don't have enough Trellium and no way to get more. Squads of spiked soldiers could be considered, but you lose Metalborn for each spike (the Set experiments were not successful in making spikes out of their methods), plus there is a limit at ~4-5 spikes per person, and no Compounding. There is one Aetherbound allied with Ghostbloods, not Aether directly, and we don't know how difficult it is to bond Aether or how many there are. There are not even WoBs on that, so even speculation is difficult. We could consider that one person definitely, and things they did. After SP we will have more information on Aethers, so that line of reasoning should be more open to speculation. All of the above is of course only my opinion on the reasonable extrapolation, others will surely have their own ideas.

And equally people are speculating on the yield of the H-T bombs, despite us not having actually seen any. Or on mass-production of artillery, mass training of armies etc. Same way people speculated that Scadrial can use medallions for compounding, despite there not being evidence for it. Where and how am I forgetting northerners? This argument renders most discussion pointless. Should we not have had discussion post RoW, since by this logic Bands of Mourning could have gotten lost, Wax could have slipped and died, Sazed could have splintered himself, volcano could have erupted wiping out Southerners, etc. We are always assuming and extrapolating, e.g. now it turns out that our previous assumptions about Hemalurgy were wrong, same for allomantic grenades etc. That is why after another books comes out we will have another round of discussion (if people will be interested), to update for new precise knowledge. I and others seemingly, are interested in talking temporal equivalency right now, acknowledging we are engaging in some measure of speculation (how wild it is is up to individual people to asses). You are of course free to not participate in it, and ignore those parts of discussion and lead parallel which does not assume temporal equivalency.

Ehm, yes. But as said before "Ones Above" are not contemporaries of Roshar at TLM, and are several centuries more advanced. Not sure what this argument is supposed to do. It is a speculation based on the writing, Skybreakers are consistently characterized by interests in legality of their actions, now there is a mysterious group of people who can fly (and sink ships, which Coinshots would have trouble without equipment) who are interested in legality. They are also allied with a group (Ghostbloods) most of which are shown to be non-Scadrians. Presuming them to be Skybreakers (or enlightened version) is not a stretch. Ishar is insane, unless near perpendicularity or Radiant swearing Oath. The entire storyline of Szeth and Kaladin is based around getting his help. So sane Ishar is already in the mood to share, the difficulty is keeping him sane long enough. Kalak lacks the ability to manipulate Connection himself, as he is not Bondsmith nor in possession of Bondsmith Honorblade. That does not preclude him from having theoretical knowledge that could be quickly tested by a Bondsmith, and modified if need be. He only had millenia to work on this problem. If you look at the past pages of this thread, and the spiritual ancestor (post-RoW) thread, you would notice that most do in fact consider temporal equivalency. Both Roshar and Scadrial are moving fast at this stage in history, so difference in 10 years is considerable for competencies (e.g. Scadrial at RoW has no harmonium bombs, no H-T bombs, no ability to produce Atium even in miniscule amounts, very little electricity, no radios, no grenade launchers, no AA guns, no artillery, and only few basic machine guns). No one is arguing that Lightweavers or Elsecallers will be creating nuclear bombs from plutonium, or gamma lasers, we are merely extrapolating trends (e.g. number of Radiants), extending availability of some technologies that are already being created by RoW (flying platforms, fabrials) or assuming that often repeated issue will be resolved considering the resources available (unchained Bondsmiths, cooperative Heralds) and evidence that it is actually possible.

Hoid and Ghostbloods are contemporary with Roshar, "Ones Above" are century or two ahead, so that is false equivalence. Additionally, the Skybreakers could have joined Ghostbloods after they were able to leave off-world, not because of it. Edit: Also, Kelsier still cannot leave Scadrial (else he could have intervened on Roshar branch), so Ghostbloods don't have the means to enable spren to leave system. Hence someone else has to do it. And Roshar has access to knowledge (Kalak, possibly Ishar, Sibling, Stormlight Archive itself) and powers (unchained Bondsmithing) neither Hoid nor Ghostbloods have. And since moving spren off-world is specifically issue of Connection, Roshar is positioned far better to do something about it then Ghostbloods (no comment on Hoid, who knows about him). If we are completely unwilling to speculate on state of Roshar 10 years in future, we should move the debate to known state of both planets at the same time, i.e. Roshar at RoW and Scadrial pre-AoL, so they are both contemporary.

There is Hoid, those Skybreakers in TLM (why else would Brandon put there they are asking about law, and how would coinshots sink several ships so fast?) and Additionally, Kalak has been investigating this very issue (moving Invested Entities off-planet) and is now willing to share with Shallan, Ghostbloods are after Ba-Ado-Mishram for this purpose and finally SA5 is Bondsmith book making it natural place to include this sort of investigation and discussion. All this shows that off-world Radiants are near future phenomenon, compared to FTL which is still at least 1-2 centuries away. (jump to Era 3, Era 3 and jump to Era 4 or 5 depending on if Brandon replicated Era 2).

WoB https://wob.coppermind.net/events/135/#e3347 for needing to spike both spren and Radiant, plus additional WoB https://wob.coppermind.net/events/402/#e13432 the spren still has control over bond, and could break it. So you spike the bond out, and the spren breaks the bond that is now trapped in the Spike, and can rebond possibly even with the person you just spiked (if they are still alive). What Bondsmiths are doing is much more complex then Hemalurgy, so conceivably Ishar could steal the bond and make Stormfather unable to break it. Or Stormfather could have broken but was panicking, because it should have been impossible. And when you publish information, Roshar can start using Hemalurgy themselves, to augment regular troops (spren would not like to be bonded with someone with spike). As far as I remember Ire (thank you for reminder of the name) had a pipe stretching through Cognitive which was driving their fortress. I don't think they had any jars. It is conceivable that it was unkeyed and we just did not know at the time. Shortly before Teft dies he feels harmony between himself and the spren, and thinks to himself he is forgiven and he is close and he has hope. Then he summons Phendora enough to block Shardblade, something Kaladin could not do until swearing 4th Ideal. Chapter 104, pg. 1116. So he sounds optimistic, not in denial like Kaladin, and can do something that Kaladin could not till swearing 4th. I would say I have strong argument on my hand that had Moash not kill Phendora, he would have sworn 4th Ideal even before Kaladin. Not true, only those spren that crossed to PR and stayed unboded for a while have issues. Half the fun of Lift and Wyndle is that clearly Wyndle knows a lot about what Radiants can do, and how to use their powers, but Lift does not really care (plus has her own weirdness). Fair enough on Stormfather. Kalak has been working on ways to manipulate Connection so he can leave the system, so he can teach Dalinar something at the very least. You can study problem theoretically without being able to practice. Ishar (and other Heralds) are rendered sane by contact with Spiritual realm (SR), so as long as someone opens perpendicularity near them, or Windrunner/Bondsmith swears ideal nearby, they will be temporarily sane (and in Ishar's case, cooperative). If anything bands and people are comparatively Invested, you cannot push on neither, the human soul is Investiture. But still, regular soulcaster could soulcast full metalmind no need for Elsecaller, again https://wob.coppermind.net/events/31/#e9681 here he is talking about Soulcasters, i.e. the people wielding soulcasters the device, not Radiants. And average soulcaster could soulcast full metalmind. Multiple people can wield them at once, only one person at a time. And they don't know how to refill regular medallions (NoScad at least), how would they refill BoM when no one apparently know what the hell it is? No, all she did was delay until reinforcements arrived, not fight. Still stalling can be valid tactics, if you don't mind dying (which would pop the bubble) to a squire or Radiant, since they are better in all physical aspects + have Invested Arts. Source on Metalborn being able to be quickly organized and trained as assassins and fighters? What about pacifists, people with injuries, physically unable people, etc.? And training to become a fighter still take months, even if you just want to become WW1 soldier. And most people in Basin don't shoot, it is not US, I'd bet most have not seen or used a gun in their life (unless living in roughs, which is very small minority of population). Good luck that there are armies ~100 000 strong for potential candidates for Radiancy, and those are already trained. Ehm, shield? That is obvious thing to use Reverse lashing on, Kaladin even demonstrated that even before he became 2nd Oath Radiant. Deadplate heals using Stormlight, Living that is debatable. If the crystal breaks, they breath in Stormlight and are still good to go for a few minutes at least, and that assumes the explosion is near enough, and as said before targeting them is difficult. How many shells would they need to "fill" the sky with shrapnel? Since they have dozens of AA guns at best? Edit: For Adolin, the helm starts overlaying the lightening so it does not blind him, and is partially translucent. So if there is a hole, it has to be small enough to not let appreciable amount of light in (as otherwise he would be blinded regardless), and the description of more suggestive of the helm being fully closed in front of his eyes. Too bad Scadrial does not have neither hundreds nor thousands pieces of artillery, and even if they do, they could not concentrate them on a single battlefield (as it would leave them open everywhere else). Plus constant firing would warp the barrels fast, necessitating repairs, not sustainable in the long run. They most likely don't even have thousand machine guns, what with army that is 10 000 strong, much less artillery which needs ~5-10 people to be operated and supported properly. Regarding psychology, I would expect the side that actually fought in wars to have advantage over the side that never did, so Roshar would have advantage there. No, 10 years ago there were 300-500 Radiants, and those numbers got there in a year and a half from zero. And you don't need to cover everything, you need to destroy command centers, weapon/ammunition stockpiles, and centers of resistance. If Scadrians are throwing stick of dynamites in close quarters to try and kill Radiants they are killing themselves far more effectively, since they cannot heal, unlike Radiants. Not the best tactic, arguably quite bad one. Gold compounders can survive explosions, and Radiant healing is on par with that https://wob.coppermind.net/events/116/#e4788 https://wob.coppermind.net/events/76/#e6336 . So yeah, they could survive explosions. Too bad Northern Scadrial has very few grenades, plus you need Leecher on hand relatively close or they lose charge. Neither Scadrians have any idea how to fight urban warfare (or any warfare), so they have same issue. It could be very effective, after taking a long time to master. Time which they would not have. And even then, they see 3 second into future at best, if something is coming at them faster then reaction time + 3 seconds, they still die. Plus specifically Windrunners can use Reverse Lashing to immobilize them, rendering Electrum useless. How would electrum help in sneaking into camp? When there can be spren sentries around, they would be unable to detect? No Band users, Bands are not in NoScad, and are seemingly drained. They don't. They might have theories on how to apply stuff, but considering how naively peaceful they were, I doubt even that. Why prepare for war when the entire humanity lives together in peace (from their perspective)? Theory and practice are very different things, especially at war. Except Scadrial is not at WW2 level, they are barely WW1 level. Radiants can fly higher than AA guns can shoot, and for bombarding that is ok. And Kaladin on 3rd Oath flew width of continent (thousands of kilometers) on only spheres he could carry, so yeah, they have reach larger than the entire Elendel Basin. Also their industrialization is limited to dozen cities, and most of it is in Elendel proper, so a single city. They know to capture Shardbearer with ropes and nets, not Radiants. They could have fired rockets from a ship, as they have been doing during tests. Yet they did not. Why if they could have? The range is still 40-60 miles apparently. They needed to destroy the government and cause horrible destruction to rally the Outer Cities and claim control, something which could have been done with smaller detonations. Evidence suggests that as it stands the H-T bombs cannot be put on rockets, it is beyond them. Fair enough, then please do the same and disregard Malwish technology and most of Harmonium, as they have no love for Basin. On Willshapers, some might join coalition, depends on the spren. And as Frustration mentioned, you can use plate to generate necessary sound, and that can be easily replicated. Too bad Rosharans can create their own perpendicularity, or use Elsecalling powered by a Bondsmith to transport massive numbers without need for Harmonies perpendicularity. And if Scadrial has to resort to nuking their own territory, they are not doing particularly well. Shardplate (made of godmetal) can be soulcast https://wob.coppermind.net/events/69/#e6254 . So Trellium could be too. Now it would be very difficult, much more than soulcasting full metalminds, but Elsecaller/Lightweaver potentially boosted by a Bondsmith could probably do it considering the scale of other feats. Plus there is less Trellium than full Shardplate. Spying is how you get information on enemy, and spren and Lightweaver would be very good at that. Scadrians have superior weapons not tactics. I would wager side with millennia worth of experience knows tactics better, and could adapt faster when faced with new capabilities. Bondsmith could supply light on location, no need for transport. We are comparing Roshar + 10 years vs Scadrial at TLM. We could compare Roshar at RoW vs Scadrial at RoW, but that would be boring. That is symmetric scenario, how would Scadrians react to Rosharan pathogens? Not sure how relevant of an argument it is. Hoid is also foreigner, as is Zahel, Azure, that Terris woman, and yet they are not sources of immediate plagues, so it is not as bad as you are making it out to be. Exactly, they have comparative technology, only power source differs. Also as long as Roshar puts their technology in aluminium boxes, they are ok against leecher grenades (which could not be done for all tech). And Elendel does not have dozens of those grenades, so yeah. Elendel has only one skimmer, and cannot make more. And since you are not considering united Roshar, don't assume united Scadrial. Why not? Replicating something, especially if you have dedicated team of scientist focused on technology development (which Roshar has) is not that difficult. And soulcasting removes need for precise metalwork. Small anti-matter bomb, and as long as you make it small enough, it is explosion as any other. It is just question of yield. Large enough stack of gunpowder would also blow up your head, and yet we put it in guns. Luckily Roshar has large enough population that they could devote some to manufacture. Still, it would be limited, however it would remove some of the advantage of Scadrial. Not enough to use it in bullets regularly, even Set don't typically use aluminum bullets (otherwise Wax would die quite fast in that ascent of tower at the end of TLM). True enough, it gives them 2 further years, and Roshar has the same 2 years to advance further. Some of these (mining, processing) are of limited necessity for Roshar, especially with Soulcasting (and fabrials can mimic all surges so technological development will make soulcasting even more common). And different Rosharan cultures have different societies, e.g. Thaylenah is very advanced in science and manufacture (they make vacuum tubes which is 19th century invention), Azir has general education system and advanced bureaucracy. Even then, for immediate war, type of society plays less of a role. And there is no Fullborn, or even proper Mistborn, so why are you using them as examples? If you want to be this strict, be this strict with Scadrial as well (i.e. no unlimited H-T bombds, no Fullborn, Mistborn, or Metalborn strike teams, etc.) Of which there is limited supply in North, as in there are maybe a dozen, and Marasi needs to have new ones regularly delivered. 1. Elsecallers 2. Bondsmith perpendicularity. Also Pits of Eltania don't contain perpendicularity, the only descritpion of something which sounds like perpendicularity is in Southern Roughs. https://coppermind.net/wiki/Perpendicularity

No problem, happy to help. In SH they needed a pipe to move Dor there, and it was not unkeyed, so less refined Investiture, and need to have "physical" connection to Cognitive over Sel. That is why I was specifying that Teft would have easier time with 4th ideal not that he had easy time in general. See the sentence you did not quote in your post " Lopen had relatively easy time with 3rd ideal, and if Teft had lived a bit longer he would most likely have followed quickly after Kaladin (implication was that after being awoken he was almost as close as Kaladin to 4th Oath). " Sibling seems to be more knowledgeable, just having some ethical issues relating to fabrials. Stormfather seems to be increasingly communicative, and more aware the longer and deeper his bond with Dalinar his. Kalak explicitly wants to share his knowledge with Shallan, or at least some of it. Ishar would like to, as long as he has his moment of sanity. It would not be more categorically more difficult, from Investiture stand point it is still just full metalmind, just larger. Elsecallers soulcast people, those are kinda more difficult (what with their own cognitive aspect). How would the medalion Fullborn do that if the Elsecaller is in Cognitive? And since Bands are apparently drained at the moment, where is the medallion Fullborn coming from? Marasi was also a fan of Wax and wanted to become constable. Plus setting up a bubble and hoping target does not notice is not really "masterful", mastery would be adjusting size of bubble, shape or compression factor. Yes in era 1 there were A-pewter and A-iron/steel teams, in Era 2 we have seen only gangs with individual metalborn, or teams of two at most. Hardly coordinated units. Marasi explictly says in TLM that she wants Elendel constables to form anti-allomancy team, but they did not do it yet (and speculates that the chief considers her + Wayne + Wax to be that team). So we actually do know that no such team exists, neither in Elendel, nor in other cities (as they are far smaller, and have far fewer metalborn as result). Most metalborn would be less skilled (in combat) then squires, squires at least train in combat, most metalborn in Era 2 have no reason to as they typically have regular civilan jobs (i.e. coinshot messengers, soothing parlors, etc.) Reverse lashing would would help diminish this tactic (unless aluminum shrapnel). For those with Shardplate this does not do much. And still while you do not need to hit them, you still need to hit near them (as in within few meters), and Windrunners are more maneuverable then modern jets, faster than anything Scadrians encountered (barring steelrunners, but those don't fly and are exceedingly rare) and don't move like most things do (i.e. they move with constant acceleration). Scadrian AA (whatever they have) is designed to shoot slow moving (tens of miles per hour) large ships, not people sized objects flying hundreds of miles per hour. Sure, but Rosharan strategist who would send regular Rosharans first is dumb. If you have supersoldiers, you use those first to soften enemy as much as possible, and then follow up with regular units. Windrunners who can drop anywhere in the city (drop from sky in few seconds, take out machine gun nest, and zip out), Stonewards creating tunnels to move units around, Dustbringers taking down buildings, Elsecaller (or Lightweaver) soulcasting ammunition (or artillery) away. The spheres are ~1 cm in radius, do you know how lucky the shots would have to be to be destroying them systematically? And the light from the broken spheres could still be quickly inhaled (not ideal solution, but not bad when you are getting shot at). And why would Radiants not maneuver well in close quarters? I see no reason for that, and in fact some orders (with Abrasion, Gravitation) would have better ability to maneuver then regular person. Nope, with electrum you only see the future, no instinctive reactions or improved cognition, that is only atium. To use Electrum effectively would take a lot of training (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/309/#e9197), and it would still be much worse than atium. And nope, Kelsier wins only by killing Kaladin off battlefield, Kaladin kills Vin, and Vin is better then Kelsier. And mind you that is Mistborn with Electrum, they will still die against Windrunner of 3rd Oath. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/4/#e1432 Electrum misting will die a couple of second later, but they will still die fast against Radiant of most (not all orders). Those dudes were trained soldiers who fought in campaigns, and burned through millennium worth of Atium in few hours, not sustainable tactics. The eyeslits that are there can be closed, both on living and deadplate. Adolin's plate closes its eyeslits during battle at the end of WoR, and it shields him from the lighting of Stormforms. How many were skilled enough to hit opening around 1 cm large on a moving target from several meters away (while being rushed by the person no less)? Artillery can still only hit one spot at a time (or how many you guns), not the entire kilometers of field. Plenty of space to move fast, and Shardplate is fast, much less some Radiants. Scadrial has no tactics, at least North that is (no info on Malwish). They did not fight any conflict in over 3 centuries. Elendel's "army" has 10000 members, and that is including what is effectively customs and coast guard! Even if the the rest of Basin matches them, that is just 20 000 people. With those numbers they would struggle to hold even just surroundings of Elendel. They have the guns, but no experience in how to use them tactically like that. They will have some naive understanding, but no actual expertise much less understanding on how to leverage on par with WW1 strategists. The biggest things they fight are gangs with tens of members at best, not battles with tens of thousands of soldiers. And yes Radiants cannot hold ground, but they can destroy factories and heavy equipment (Shardblades are kinda custom made for that purpose, see Thunderclasts). And once that is destroyed, Scadrial would have big issues because rebuilding takes time. Fair enough. Good to know. Replicating it can be done, but you are also proposing they improve upon it by miniaturizing it. If they could have made a few smaller bombs why did they not? Why go with suicide attack if they could have simply fired 3-4 smaller rockets? It is implied Navani hears the rhythms because humans have become part of Roshar (thought not as adapted as Singers). Also there is conveniently a group of Singers that defected from Odium, and Singer in the Coalition nicknamed "Bridger of Minds", that should help. That entirely depends on how much Trellium was in the bomb Wayne stopped. It could have been much more than what is bunch of spikes, or it could not have. Either way, there is a hard cap on how many trellium-harmonium bombs they can deploy, and once that is exhausted (or stolen or soulcasted away) they are done. Regular tech and weapons - yes. Tactics - no, they don't really have any not for conlict at scale. Logistics - soulcasters are far superior for supplying army. Plus Roshar has additional 10 years for Fabrial development, and already in RoW they already have FTL communication (span reeds), flight (Bridge 4 + glove Kaladin uses), tasers/numbing agents (painrials), artificial light and heat (heating and lighting fabrials) plus others more esoteric (those fabrials that draw in given compounds). I know, I was saying that about couple of sentences later. Yep, e.g. 15th century plate had eye slits around 5-8 mm (some even smaller). But Roshar has soulcasting which allows them to make simple casts from e.g. wood, stone or plaster and then change that into perfect metal of the same shape. They don't need advanced refining techniques, because they could make it wholesale if need be. Sure in much smaller numbers then if they had those techniquest and set up factories, but they could do it and fast. Gunpowder would be bigger issue for them, but anti-light x light reaction could supply that, or they could try and steal some and learn to soulcast it as well (more complicated things can be soulcast, but it takes quite a lot of skills). Or seeing the weapons they could try and replicate the effect (throw small pieces of metal at a high velocity) with Fabrials. They have already attractor fabrials, so repulsor fabrial with additional Duralumin cage for stronger effect and aluminum housing to restrict the vector of effect could do the trick, I think. Roshar does not need to catch up, they would want or need to replicate the effects using their own technology and expertise. Again, Scadrial does not yet know how to produce aluminum through electrolysis. So while they can produce some amounts, they are not on the industrial scale. And we know that the entire Era 2 is within the SA5 to SA6 gap, which is currently intended to be about 10 years, so not sure what are you talking about the timeline. But Roshar is not 8 centuries behind, they are proceeding along different branch of 'tech tree' (thought that is gross oversimplification). They have FTL communications, airships, gloves that can simulate jetpack (in a limited fashion), aoe tasers (painrials), numbind agents (painrials), telekinetic devices (attractors repelers), artifical heating and light (heat-rieals and spheres on their own though some fabrial could be made). They have basics of germ theory and vaccination. They are formulating basics of quantum theory (allowed through observations of spren). They are using different basis for their technology, but they are not that far behind. Charts could be useful, but I fear that most people would just move past them without really engaging. I tried to be more systematic a few times in the old post-RoW thread, and it got quickly washed away. EDIT: You cannot just hit someone anywhere, you need to be precise about it (nearly all Hemalurgy done in Era 1 was guided by Ruin). So Coinshots won't help you there. You also need Intent, know what you are doing and truly mean it (see TLM). To steal bond you would also need to spike the spren, and know the correct bind points on spren (where even bind points on people are not really known), which Scadrials definitely don't know. So yeah, that would not work as easily as you think.

Kalak claims he nearly figured it out, that and he is now willing to talk to Shallan. So they could have figured it out, and being aware of Ghostblood kept it secret. Or Ghostbloods did steal that knowledge, and use it to move purify and move Dor. And Kaladin is having atypically bad time of Windrunner (what with no guidance), look at Lopen or Teft. Lopen had relatively easy time with 3rd ideal, and if Teft had lived a bit longer he would most likely have followed quickly after Kaladin (implication was that after being awoken he was almost as close as Kaladin to 4th Oath). Ishar learned enough to be named "Binder of gods" back on Ashyn, when he was still mortal. At the same time he (or another Bondsmith, if there were more) caused destruction of Ashyn, and enabled refuges to move to Roshar by super-powered Elsecalling. And he did not have advantage of prior expertise to consult, unlike Dalinar who has Stormfathar and Sibling, possibly Kalak as well. There are no Fullborn period, unlike Elsecallers of which one is definitely active on Roshar. If there are no futher Elsecallers, there are certainly no Fullborn. Let us be equally strict with both sides. And nope, Bands of Mourning are less Invested than both Shardplate and Shardblades (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/13/#e4878). They are just full metalmind of multiple metals (as far as we know), and even non-Radiant soulcasters could soulcast those (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/31/#e9681) Elsecaller would have chance only if attacking from Cognitive, where they are safe (as Fullborn has no way to access them there). In total across all age groups there are circa ~20 000 metalborn in the Northern Scadrial, which most likely forms the bulk of all of them (assuming 1 in 500 is metalborn, as the compromise on Brandons one in few hundred, or one in few thousand WoBs + assuming population of 10 million, based on 5 million population of Elendel and comment in TLM that Elendel has around half of population of Basin). They are divided across 32 disciplines, so less then a thousand for each metal. This is across all age categories, so if you include only people 20-60, you get only half, so ~400 per each metal. Most of these have never trained for combat, or even never thought, and at least 1/3 of the metals is completely useless in combat, further reducing number of metalborn. So at this stage, you have around 6000 metalborn with abilities useful in combat or support roles, who are of fighting age, and most have next to no combat experience. That is it. Additionally not metals are equally rare, e.g. there is only few F-steel ferring in all of Elendel (population 5 million), but we don't any proper numbers on those distribution (though apparently coinshots and lurchers are among the most common, vs f-steel are among the rarest). Radiant are (at this point) all combat trained, and actually train and fight in groups, unlike metalborn who have been shown not doing anything like that in Era 2. We don't know why they were leaking mists, thought I have a theory on that (shameless plug, https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/97692-theory-bands-of-mourning-are-fueled-by-mists/ ) TLDR: Theory is they are filled with compounded Mists, and they leak since humans are imperfect containers for gaseous investiture. Shooting a plane moving without appreciable acceleration is difficult with AA guns (and Scadrial does not have particularly advanced ones), and Windrunner is constantly accelerating and much smaller target than a plane. Pewter-runners are not that far from top-human, primary advantage is endurance here. And there are few steelrunners, and running at multiples of human speed will drain them fast (I can plug the numbers from the old thread if need be). How does Scadrial have advantage? Radiants have overwhelming advantage in close quarters combat, and Orders with Cohesion can move through city as if the walls were not even there. + every Radiant has a spren they can use for scouting. Electrum while useful is not enough, 3rd oath windrunner would defeat full Mistborn, electrum or no, in a battle. Electrum misting is comparative cakewalk. And while Atium is useful, there is just incredibly small amount of it, and to produce it you loose Trellium (which could be used in bombs) and Harmonium (which could be used in Southern Fabrials), it is a trade-off. Also Atium is reliant on movement of opponent, Elsecaller (or Lightweaver) could soulcast someone burning Atium without more movement then stretching a hand, and there is nothing to dodge. Also Atium burns fast, so it is a question of who can outlast whom, Atium burner without healing vs Radiant who heals from hits with Stormlight? Most scientist were running away from TwinSoul did they not? And it took Set 6 years to create the bombs, Roshar has 10 to learn to weaponize anti-light x light reactions. Navani used principles known to others in Rosharan scientific community, and based on her approach will share her findings. And Urithiru was not relevant in the process whatsoever. What Scadrial now has is a suicide ships, because they were unable to fit it on rockets. Not exactly ideal method of deployment. Once again, the plate does not have eyeslits. They can be closed even on deadplate, and typically are in battle. (i.e. Jasnah had her plate sealed airtight for most of the battle in RoW). So guns wont help there, and not every Scadrian is the same crackshot as Wax, in fact except him there are none, that is why he is the legandary Dawnshot and not run-of-the-mill lawman. For the artillery, why would Radiants stand waiting to get hit? Most orders are quite mobile, or heal better than the rest, or can build fortifications. He did not, he only perceived axi, but did not push on them. Instead Scadrial lacks resources as Trellium was rare to begin with, and now is no longer occurring as Autonomy divested. So at some point they will run out, and be unable to build more. Question now is how much is there, and what is the destructive potential per unit of Trellium. Ehm, Radiants fought repeated wars to destroy and push away Singers, lobotomized Singers effectively committing cultural and social genocide (while under less threat than during actual Odium-driven Desolations) and Elsecaller advocated full-on genocide of at the time innocent Parshmen without jeopardizing her Oaths. Sure Windrunners might be against such tactics, but in individual engagements they will fight and they will fight to win (see, well nearly all of the battles across SA). The other Orders will take care of the 'dirty' strategies and tactics.

I'll take the liberty of only responding to this part, as I feel that is the actually crucial part of the discussion. And thank you for taking the time to elaborate on your thinking and position on this. You are correct, I do equate those two things (nature and reality). My position would be that if Investiture (and associated realms) have been created by the same big bang (or deity of choice) then they are equally natural. I would further argue that if it is not originating from the same 'origin' (be it big bang or deity), but an event further in past can be traced as the driving agent of both Investiture creation and e.g. big bang, then Investiture is again natural. I do recognize it is only a perspective, and am willing to continue this discussion/debate while doing my best to acknowledge this difference in perspective. I freely admit that the position you are stating is quite alien to my thinking, however that alone does not make it invalid and so I should not be dismissing it. Here I would argue that while some (e.g. Wax) do share your perspective, others (e.g. Khriss) are more closely aligned to mine (as she spends pretty much her entire life categorizing Investiture and treating it as "just" another natural aspect of reality, albeit complicated). So I would suggest we could try and answer the original question of this thread (religious impacts of the TLM events) from both of these differing positions that can be taken, acknowledging that parts of those differing reactions would be driven by this philosophical (? I guess) difference.

Apparently so :/ Wax is not a scientist, and he specifically means the 'seeming' laws of physical realm, i.e. coinshot can generate force 'out of nowhere', F-gold can create cells, etc. But that is only because he does not include Investiture in his considerations, if someone in our world did not know about electricity and photoelectric effect then toy car powered by a solar cell would look like it is breaking natural laws. Where is it stated that Investiture predates natural world? As far as we know Investiture has always been part of the star cluster that is the Cosmere. Ruin and Preservation created a planet called Scadrial using it yes, but predating a planet is not the same as predating the natural world. Spiritual realm is just another realm of existence, one without space and time dimensions. I could call it 'dimensionless parallel universe with high potential of Investiture field' that contains excitation paralleling excitation of other two universes (physical and cognitive). Name does not define what a thing is. It can be looked into, it can be manipulated (hemalurgy, bondsmithing), so it is going to be subject to experimentation and description, just as any other part of reality. How does that work? If it was not created, and it exists in nature, how is it not part of nature? I think this position is the source of the disagreement here, as we probably have wildly different positions on this. Edit: To answer the original question of the thread, I think that some will question Harmony, and some might move to Survivorism (which would kind of strength Autonomy, as one of the cores of it is independence). Others might move beyond gods to Atheism (in the sense of not considering Shards or Slivers divine, only potential powerful) and the rest might adopt the doctrine of 'trust Harmony for they work in mysterious ways'. Trell will continue to play role in Era 3 (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/377/#e12227), but I think it will be in position of someone who hijacks Survivorism, as 1. Autonomy is a fan of Kelsier and 2. The tenants are already pretty close to what Autonomy fosters (arguably even more independent even). So to sum up, in my opinion the results will be diminishing of Pathism, strengthening of Survivorism and its further shift to valuing being self-reliant and independent, minor appearance of atheism. The second point will then set the stage for Trell to take over Survivorism for her own ends. Regarding Southern Scadrial, I have no clue.

First, apologies for not replying in length to the previous post of yours @Flaming Coinshot, I have less time then I would hope. All Nicrosil Compounder would have is that, compounding Nicrosil, unless they can interact with medallions in such a way to get those abilities. However, medallions are weaker in this regard then Hemalurgy is, so I don't think that would work. Please do find the post, I would be curious how you intend it to work. Well, Shardic intervention could do many things, so we have been typically avoiding it in these discussions (i.e. creating more Bondsmiths, or more Yelig-Nars on Roshar end, or creating Fullborn on Scadrial end). Not yet, Moonlight (or TwinSoul) mentions that aluminum can be created using electrolysis, and Marasi is shocked. It is hinted that they are close to it though, but scaling it up would take further time. Well, how traumatized is Wayne? And he gets shot a lot, and blown up occasionally, that hurts even more. And Radiant healing is on par with Gold-compounders, so a bit like super-charged Wayne. Shardplate need not have open visor, even deadplate can close it up and make the helm translucent (see Adolin at the end of WoR, when Stormform start throwing around lighting). So this tactic relies on Shardbearers deliberately leaving an opening. + if the Radiant in question is Windrunner, they can use shields infused with Reverse Lashing.

And I am saying that what is natural in Cosmere is different to what is natural in our world, and that is the nature of the world per the author. You are using definition of natural from our world, not of the Cosmere. Since you like dictionary definitions, take a look at definition of Natural: existing in or derived from nature; not made or caused by humankind. Investiture is existing freely in nature in Cosmere, and is neither made nor cause by humankind, hence is natural not supernatural. Application of Investiture is just technology, just like Dyson swarm would be. And neither alchemist nor magi were working within scientific framework nor could describe and reproduce well defined results or predict new ones, unlike e.g Khriss or Silverlight university, or Navani and Raboniel, or scientist from Scadrial.

I am much less poetic person, so I took the Lost Metal to be Lerasium (with Atium being red herring). However, I like this so much more! Especially tying it back to alloy of law. So now I am on board the 'Lost Metal is Wayne' train.

And natural laws of cosmere include Investiture, and Investiture is bound by certain mechanism (i.e. conservation laws https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e1649, thermodynamics https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3544) that are inviolable. Apparently there is even 4th law of thermodynamics that exists only in Cosmere due to presence of Investiture. Most in Cosmere don't yet understand those, but they exist and are relevant. Shards for example cannot just turn-off Invested Art for someone (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/171/#e8160 , https://wob.coppermind.net/events/370/#e11817 ), if the person fulfills the requirements the Art will work and that is it, because that is the natural law. The fact that their world also has additional discrete dimensions on top of the usual space-time (with their own different physical laws, https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3413 ) does not make it per se magical or not natural, hence existence of Investiture is not proof of supernatural, not in Cosmere. On Scadrial it was used to create the planet, however claiming that is proof of divinity does not hold, it is functionally equivalent of building a Dyson swarm (or sphere) only difference is number of being involved and time scale. EDIT: In fact Brandon considers Investiture to be just another branch of physics https://wob.coppermind.net/events/117/#e1690 .

Thanks everyone, bunch of stuff to think about. Definitely looking for Living Plate vs Aether mecha powered by Dor showdown, where is Era 4 when one needs it?

Hemalurgy no longer works as it did prior to Sazed's ascension, there is an upper limit now he could not get further powers. He is just grandfathered in, because his soul was already modified. And more importantly, Marsh would not want to get more, he really does not like what he became and what he did.

And she has made progress since then, e.g. got Plate, and 8-9 years to train with her powers. It is a question of acquired skill and training, not physical possibility. Per WoB 2-3 bullets per section, against deadplate. Living plate is at least as good as that, possibly better. Though what we had now seen of Aether makes me question whether Brandon changed his mind on that, Shardplates are 'powered armor' of Cosmere and will remain relevant to Era 4, so they should be harder to break (or something will change about them). Deadplate on Radiant would hinder them, it would interfere with their Surges, so not an option Radiants have Surges that can be used at range. Why move in close when you can soulcast an enemy? Also you can soulcast cover. For Windrunner, they can just lash objects against enemy for kinetic bombardment that is beyond reach of Scadrial yet + some can support by using reverse lashings to make bullets go off mark. And Jasnah was at that point completely untrained for melee combat and was pretending to be a regular Shardbearer. Second she started using Surges and stopped holding back she dominated. Scadrians ships are wooden, light (due to Iron feruchemy) and don't have any guns or cannons (and if they did, the recoil would make them horribly inaccurate), could be used as bombers though. Rosharans had 4th Bridge 7-8 years ago, and got it within a year of developing proof of concept floating platforms. Also Roshar has Windrunners, you know people moving the at hundreds of km/h with better maneuverability? Bows can still kill people, and why would Rosharans just stand around and get mowed down? In a single battle sure, before they know what is going on, but afterwards? For every soldier Scadrial has, they have 10. Most Radiants could easily shrug off bullets, they heal on par with Gold compounders, sure it would eat through their Stormlight, but regrowing severed limbs or spines they do in middle of battle without much worry. Elsecalling can be done without perpendicularity, Gravitation simulating bombardment is very useful (good luck fielding artillery when large boulders keep dropping on your location). Regrowth can keep regular soldiers alive and ready for next round. Lightweaving, how can you hit target you don't see? Or even better, why are you shooting at illusions? Soulcasting is in its own league, you can do it from Cognitive and Scadrial has no defense against it. Soulcast air in the barrel to rock, and gun is broken even if made out of aluminum. Soulcast rocket fuel to water, rockets are pointless. And Lightweavers can do it too. Except metalborn are rare, one in a couple of thousand (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/7/#e6856), and some powers rarer still (ferrings are rarer then mistings). There is at most ~10000 metalborn alive in the entire Elendel Basin, across the entire age pyramid, so only about ~1/2 is of combat age, if we are being generous. So you have 5000 metalborn, most having only 1 power (any Twinborn is pretty much one in a million occurrence, we met exactly 3 across entire Era 2), and about 1/3 of single powers are not directly combat useful, leaving us with about ~3500 metalborn, most of whom are not combat trained, unlike Radiants who are mostly combat trained. If powers were being exactly 1/16 chance, then that would leave us with about ~100 F-steel ferrings, which would be impressive, but based on SoS there cannot be that many in Elendel (Wax gets a relatively short list of all Steelrunners in Elendel + both he and Bleeder immediately went after the same one), so their actual number is probably in the low tens at most (across entire population pyramid). Still impressive, however Adhesion renders them effectively impotent and they have no healing. Plus when one dies, that is it, that power is lost permanently. When Radiant dies, spren can bond someone else, and new Radiant is available. Wax knows it was created but not how, Sazed might know how but is not sharing. And even then, the process requires Trellium, and there are no more sources of that, so you could not turn entire population of Scadrial, most likely not even a single city. A Mistborn in a battle would fall to a Windrunner, of 3rd Oath (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/4/#e1432). Re-read that part, true enough, based on notes Wax has. But then I am confused about what Telsin says about rocketry and advanced ballistic being beyond them. And why did they not use the rockets they have, instead of suicide ship? Even if they had to fire 3 rockets, it would be good enough result, and no need for suicidal sailors. So I concede they have rockets with this range, but they are apparently not good enough to deliver their harmonium-trellium explosives. I agree that he is beyond mortal scientist, but immediately after that he tells a completely false fear, which undermines his previous statements. And once again, he literally tells us he has no idea what is going to happen and how big the explosion will be, he is afraid and guessing. So I would not take someone who tells us they don't know at their word, since they told us not to do that. Nope it is a nuclear bomb. It is powered by energy-matter transference, as a result of trying to separate one element (harmonium) into different ones (atium and lerasium), that is literally what nuclear bombs are. There is no antimatter anywhere in the process. Antimatter bombs could be created only on Rosharan at the moment, as only they have knowledge of anti-Investiture (though only with gaseous investiture at RoW). Cold war was partially characterized by an arms race, of which nukes were a large part of, as their development lead to that stalemate. Fair enough, though T-Odium is confident in loop-holing his way through Contest, which would leave him free to act outside of Roshar. But we don't know why they decided it was dangerous, it is possible the danger has passed, is mitigated by something else, or there is a greater danger that the one that lead to that choice. But clearly some Inkspren even now choose to bond, so a couple of more would not be out of line. Wayne has also spike granting Steel, and has Duralumin and bunch of vials with all metals. And while Sazed suggests he could push against upcoming source of metal to try and make the ship thread water, he also tells him it is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Plus he would need anchor, and a way to not be crushed, which necessitates Duralumin either way. And strength of Lerasium mistborn is dependent on amount of Lerasium, and Wayne had very little (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/6/#e341). I was thinking more using boosted Elsecaller to move thousand of people to and from Shadesmar, not directly teleporting them to Scadrial, I agree that that would require insane amounts of Investiture (or some smart hack, maybe a Connection hack, as is hinted at in SP4?). Either way, not yet possible. Proof? Sazed once says he does not know how it happened, and later says they were unable to replicate it. He had no reason to lie to Wayne, so I don't think he lied about that. He did lie about no Lerasium being found in Wax's explosion, and there were two of those and neither we, nor Wax know which actually produced Lerasium. And while Intent is important, it is not that overpowering you still need proper procedure, else Marsh would have been able to create Atium for a while. It is entierly possible Kandra have Intent, but are missing something about the procedure. Harmonies, and Singer could do that relatively easily, or someone with good connection to Roshar. I wonder if you could reverse engineers Tones of other Shards from their Intents and knowledge of some of the Tones, if there is some relation. So, she just knows their entire leadership? Based on TLM Iyatil is the head of Rosharan branch, and Mraize her second in command. Divide and conquer, promise Malwish revenge on Northerns for the BoM incident and full control of Scadrial, and afterwards turn on them. We have seen what Kelsier called his most talented members in TLM, not their average. And while they have unkeyed Dor, it is an emergency measure (see how shocked everyone was) and obtaining it is pretty difficult. (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/479/#e15205) Could have been incomplete reaction + we don't know energy density of gaseous vs solid investiture. Frankly I am not willing to make estimates on what would be minimum to destroy city, and Roshar has better option for that, like Cohesion powered by Unchained Bondsmith. Small correction, broams are actually 8mm in diameter, so the size and mass is about 2^3 larger, i.e. 8x, so it is only about ~250kg of TNT. Still good though, and I would some closer in scale to outcome. He said Wayne could try, and would most likely fail. We don't know anymore than that. Mists are effectively the same, they can be sucked in as Stormlight (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/467/#e14782) they can be captured in spheres (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/385/#e12607 , https://wob.coppermind.net/events/467/#e14784 ) they are described as in the same vein as Lifelight (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/377/#e12207) they cannot enter buildings and they power Invested arts (see Vin at the end of TFA) Mists behave pretty much exactly the same as any gaseous Investiture on Roshar does. So it stands to reason manipulation techniques should be applicable as well. Though the fact that Harmony is one shard, and Honor and Cultivation are not, would probably make splitting of Harmony mist much more difficult. They have unkeyed Investiture on Scadrial, and comment that traveling to Roshar is dangerous. Mraize has unbonded Aether, and we don't know if he (or anyone) could bond it. For all we know it is just inert piece of roseaite. And Ghostblood operations against Sons of Honor were done with assistance of Shallan, who was actually quite important in that. Fist sized gemstone would be 8 cm in diameter, so about 1000 times larger per volume, two of them would be 2000 times. Full conversion, that is now 500 tons of TNT. That is about Tomahawk missile.

We thought that having a spike was sufficient to Compound, and that is wrong. No one actually ever burned an unkeyed metalmind and successfully Compounded as far as we know. It is entirely possible that Allomancer still could not burn them and get effect. I doubt that while Hemalurgy no longer provides such power, a much less restrictive system could allow Compounding. Actually no Set did not finish the rockets at all, Telsin admits they never worked on page 429. Autonomy wanted them to figure it out, but they failed. The best Scadrial has are artillery on Bilming ships and they have range far below 20 miles (again, per The Lost Metal). No couple of barrels did not have potential to do that. That statement (blowing up Elendel, Bilming and surrounding cities) comes from Harmony, literally two sentences after admitting he has no idea how destructive it will be. He only expresses fear that it could do that, not certainty. And since he a sentence before that he almost literally quotes fears of real world physicists about nuclear bombs (that they would set atmosphere on fire, which is dumb), I think we can safely discard both statements as hyperbolic. I sincerely doubt that a first of its kind nuclear bomb would immediately be far beyond any nuke we created after literal decades of study and experiments. Scadrians WMDs would have no development ahead, and topic of Era 3 is cold war, so. And while alien invasion could do wonders for unification, the animosity between South and North could also be exploited prior to invasion. And similarly, I am sure Odium would not mind being helped with removing two further Shards. So either both sides are united, and we don't need to discuss internal politics, or neither are and then it becomes very complicated. Fair enough, I misremembered there being other Elsecallers (mixed up with 3 Truthwatchers). Though this was ~8 years prior to TLM, and prior to revelation about Recreance, which was the major reason spren did not want to bond. So by now there could be many more as there are people and there are Inkspren, it is only matter of convincing them. But Roshar will still have greater access then Scadrial, especially if Jasnah would be empowered by Bondsmith. Unchained Bondsmith and Elsecaller teleported people from Ashyn to Roshar, which is quite a feat (though still only within system). https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15849 Not boosted Mistborn, regular Mistborn. After some experimentation maybe they could, if they get lucky. Wax does not know what exactly was it, and it could have been the secondary explosion for all he and we know. So they will waste some, and maybe get a result, but Mistborn are still at most comparable to 3rd Oath Windrunner in a fight. And those are more easily replaceable. And one of those sides has access to means of realmatic transfer (Roshar) and the other does not. Oathgates were crafted, so new ones could be too, if Sibling is willing to talk about that. If not, boosted Elsecaller would be enough to move couple of thousands of people places (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15849). That does not explain why Kandra did not succeed in replicating Wax's experiment. The Intent would have been the same in both. Suppressor fabrials are all around Urithiru, it is kind of a plot point in RoW, and those are of the Coalition forces. Since they created Bridge 4 in under a single year, I think they could replicate those in ~7-8 years from RoW till TLM. Conjecture of course, but not unreasonable one, considering they have working examples and already shown capability in reverse engineering them. What Ghostblood spies? Most are known to Shallan, and she is about to start hunting them down at the end of RoW. In Elendel Basin they have seemingly less then 20 full agents, and that is the place they are supposed to be protecting. Kelsier admits to them being too weak to operate openly and relying on stealth to avoid being destroyed. Which is an advantage they no longer have on Roshar. Scadrial has weaker airforce (wooden slow flying ships vs Windrunners), no rockets (see above). And TLM is set at minimum 7-8 years after SA5, (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15877), at most 10. Roshar has soulcasting, which puts vast majority of industry to shame. Elendel is largest city in Cosmere ~5 million people, but Roshar has far larger population (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3466). They know about Cognitive to Physical, Jasnah demonstrates that at the end of WoR.

True, however once powered by the Dor, this did not seem to be concern anymore (will need to review that section). Admittedly, this is a bit of a hack, but it still renders at least roseite Aetherbound incredibly powerful.

So, Moonlight used Soul stamp to change into Elantrian, fair enough. Then created a small fascimile of Elantris Aon Rao on a map of Basin to be able to have proper Aons (at least that is what I think was happening). However, where was the Investiture to power her Aons coming from? On Elantris it goes straight from Cognitive, and because of that Sel-based systems are typically 'region locked'. However, on Scadrial there is no such source of Investiture available, so what was going on? Were the Aons powered using the purified Dor she absorbed? If so, what would happen once she runs out, would she suffer incomplete Shaod without the Investiture to sustain Elantrian biology?

So, we have seen first aetherbound, and when powered up by Investiture they were quite a sight. 12 feet tall suit of armor, maps and other objects to be created at will. They seem to be more versatile and also more powerful in battle than 4th Oath Radiants, so what is the a catch? Typically in Cosmere, stronger magic systems have a catch (fuel requirements, region lock, oath requirements, etc.) Personally I would expect that at the very minimum, Shardplate should be roughly as resistant as the aether, if only because it was described multiple times as "magical powered armor", and it would be odd to introduce something that is just straight up better in every single way.