Liranil

I guess that makes sense? I will point out that I did vote Gears earlier, and that was more of a gut read, and I meant I wasn't confident enough to change to a more serious vote. And, since this has the same tie-kills-all issue as the last game I was in (MR47 I think), my main focus is going to be preventing ties where multiple villagers could die, especially in early rounds where we don't know much. Additionally, I've noticed (in my two games, so I'm clearly an expert now :P) that elims don't tend to jump on a vote super early, because that draws suspicion to them. Hmmm, but how would you know TJ is in the elim doc unless you're in the elim doc as well!!! Elim!! XD Thanks for the vote count! So far 8/19 people have voted (adding in Illwei's vote on me), which is not a very good majority. I think people are reading too much into Dannex's posts, but I am more suspicion of Dannex than I am of most of the other people on the list and avoiding ties is high on my priority list. So Gears Dannex.

I leave for a class and we're up to page 8 9. Dang. (I mean it was a three hour class but still). Does anyone who's rereading want to give a vote count since TJ said they won't be back for a while and I'm lazy? Okay, so Breaker is claiming Blue Ajah and Gears as their Warder, and vice versa for Gears. There posts were clearly prearranged, so they at least have an outside form of communication, either PMs or the elim doc. I'm inclined to believe that they are Ajah/Warder... although I'm not sure if they're being completely truthful or not. I don't really have a lot of reads yet. James seems mostly village to me, although I think Dannex had some good points about tunneling. I'm a tiny bit sus of Connie, but that's mostly a gut read. I'm not really confident enough to do a serious vote.

Oof there's a lot to catch up on. There's not a lot to go on, but I'm gonna throw out a vote for Gears, cuz it makes me suspicious when someone says "you should do ___ if you have this role." That's not much, but it's all I've got so far. However, I'm very wary of a tie, so I may change my vote to prevent a tie later, if needed. I also get the feeling that Illwei and Mat are just toying with us.

I prefer to overestimate the number of elims, so I'll probably assume 5 for now. I need to reread the roles because there are quite a few to keep track of.

I'm in! I also haven't read any Wheel of Time books, but this sounds like fun. Definitely complicated, though!

Good game, everyone! Thanks so much for GMing, Elandera and Gears. I was not prepared for switching sides at the end, especially as I was pretty sure we (village) were going to win, but it worked in my favor I guess. I thought for sure that the villagers were going to figure out that I was the one who switched sides when the elims didn't kill me. I mean, even if you had protected Ghander, your ability didn't work against voting, so they still would have died, and you couldn't protect yourself. Nice job with that Straw save! Even though they died the next turn, it still made the game longer and closer at the end. I guess this counts as my first elim game? XD It was certainly a fun one!

You're right, it does sound suspicious, especially because you're claiming the only vote manipulation that we can't confirm. I assumed that was Straw, and why wouldn't they remove a vote off of themselves? But this is such a weird thing to claim that I think you're telling the truth about being a Dione. But I think it's odd that you waited until now to reveal it, and I have a gut read of you as an elim, more so than Snipexe. So Ghanderflaffle. Btw, you tagged someone else with a similar name instead of me lol. XD

No, no PMs. But after the sevond Hello died (Xino, I think?), someone had One open, and based on Elandera's order of operationa, we know that means there was still a Heklo, and no Heklos have died since.

At this point, I'm going to assume that the village Cambric got converted to the elim team as a worst-case scenario (and I'm saying the Cambric because I know that I didn't switch). Like both Quinn and TJ were saying, that would put us at 3-3 with one vote manipulator for each team. If that's true, we need to get an elim this cycle. There's still a Heklo out there and the Varvax leader. That would leave two people who don't have roles. So TJ and Quinn are pointing fingers at each other right now. I kind of thought they were both village, but now I'm not sure. I definitely think it was weird how Quinn avoided voting for Somebody, which was beginning to make me suspicious, but at the same time, I feel like Quinn would have been a lot more subtle if they were an elim. And while TJ did mention suspicion of Quinn at the end of last round, linking Quinn to Somebody could be a way to divert attention away from TJ and make them look more innocent (which could also be true if TJ was the one who was switched to elim). It could go either way for me, but I'll put a vote on Quinn. I do want to say that even if Quinn does turn up elim, I don't think that clears TJ, because if they are the one who was switched to elim this round, then they would feel like they have to act on their suspicions from last round.

Okay! So Somebody was an elim, yay! One vote was removed, which wasn't me, so it must have been Straw, which doesn't tell us much. I'm going to reread things (mostly Somebody's old posts in the main thread) in the morning.

Hmm. For the sake of avoiding tie-by-vote-manipulation, I guess I'll switch back from Ghander to Somebody.

Here are my reads right now, and I'm tagging people again to hopefully get some more action before the cycle ends. - @TJ Shade: I'm reading you as pretty village right now. You've done some pretty good reasoning, and you haven't really done anything too suspicious to me. Village. - @Quinn0928: I'm growing slightly more suspicious of you. You've definitely had some really good reasoning so far, but you seem really reluctant to vote Somebody. Either you know something about them and don't want them killed, or you're both elims. That I kind of doubt. My guess is you had PMs with Somebody and don't want to out them or something. Mild Village, beginning to lean towards elim though. - Somebody: I do think they were acting overly defensive and had some weird phrasing, but now that I've reread some things, I feel like their elim teammates would have stopped them from talking too much. Very mild elim, shifting towards village. - @StrikerEZ: You were the one who voted on Archer, which led to their death, which makes me suspicious. You've also mostly kept to the background, which fits my current elim profile. Mild Elim. - @Snipexe: I have a gut read on you as an elim, although I'm not entirely sure why. Mild elim. - @Ghanderflaffle: You've been really quiet, and when you have said stuff, it doesn't really add anything to the conversation. There also hasn't been much suspicion on you, so I don't know why the elims would chose not to kill you, as they did with several of the other quiet people. Elim. - @Straw: I honestly believe you're the spy. Sorry if you die, but anything you want to share with us in case you do? I'm assuming there are still 3 elims remaining to be overly cautious, and I believe that an elim has voted on Somebody, since half of the people who voted didn't vote on Dannex. If I had to choose an elim set, I would pick Striker, Snipexe, and Ghander, and I'm most suspicious of Ghander right now. Even though they probably won't get voted out, I hope this prompts theme to talk more. Any thoughts, anyone?

Okay, so I've been rereading the main thread, and I got tired of that, so I decided to just read through Dannex's posts and write my own summary. There's not a whole lot to go off of, but I basically summarized Dannex's posts, reads, and votes (or lack thereof), and added a few side notes about people who mentioned they were sus of him or who voted for him. Sorry for the really long post, but since I wrote this all out, I figured I might as well post it, and maybe somebody will notice something I missed. Cycle One: Pretty quiet. Didn’t say a lot, other than having a hmmmm feeling for some people. When poked about that, Dannex said it was just a few people (namely Snipexe, Breaker, and Striker) who were new to them and Matrim, because they thought Matrim was doing more poke votes than usual (which they rescinded a little later, realizing Matrim had only poked them). Quinn seemed to be pretty suspicious of Dannex then, and questioned them a lot, although that could, of course, be an act. Dannex started the sus train on Archer because of their “I have an elim suspicion that I’m not going to say yet” post, but this wasn’t the round where Archer died. Cycle Two: Dannex was notably part of Ashbringer’s list of suspects for those who could have led the elim kill on Araris. It is unknown whether or not Dannex was the one who led the kill on Araris, but they certainly could have been, which makes Ash’s list less helpful. Of the others listed, Quinn, Snipexe, and Striker are the only ones still alive, but keep in mind that that list was just a “who might have killed Araris” not a “who are the elims” list. Matrim did their own version of Ash’s post, lowering it even more, but the only other person alive on their list was Snipexe. A little while later, Dannex sussed/voted Matrim for subjective reasoning. Quinn put Dannex on their Neutral list. Dannex removed their vote from Matrim about 20 minutes before the end of the cycle. Blue text: busy with Christmas stuff. Seemingly confused about ties and vote on Breaker. (Dannex was silent for almost a whole cycle, and I will be looking to see if anyone else was uncharacteristically silent during that time, for possible elim doc communication). Dannex threw a little sus on Breaker at the end of this round, too, and presumably played up their confusion to hide it. Cycle Three: Dannex did a summary post. Pretty much easily discernible facts. Says that Matrim’s gut reads might have been from their figment scans. TJ joins the thread, says that they are suspicious of Dannex, somewhat because they removed their vote off of Matrim, but also for “other reasons” that they’ll share later, which I believe was their mention of Dannex trying to appear village by talking but basically not saying anything new. Quinn says they saw Dannex as a slight elim read. New post: Dannex playing up their unsure-ness. Their reads: Breaker – Village, TJ – Null-Village, Quinn – “confused” Null, SfS – Elim, Me (Liranil) – Elim, Ghander, Village (says gut read), Striker – Village, also gut read. Votes Liranil. I claim I’m not too sus of Dannex, forgetting my earlier suspicions. TJ questions Dannex about their lack of sus on Breaker. Striker puts Dannex on their elim-sus team (with Somebody, Liranil, and Breaker). I begin rereading this and become more suspicious of Dannex. Striker says Dannex is a hunch/gut when asked. Dannex does not say anything else this turn, and their vote on me stands (and is their first vote). Cycle Four (probably the most helpful tbh): TJ reads Dannex as village (states they could have brought Matrim into the tie in C2). I mention a gut read sus of Dannex. Dannex post: says they’re not sure of SfS, think it’s possible they’re an elim but not enough to risk it. Votes Liranil. Defends SfS’s defensiveness. I sus Dannex, but don’t want to spread the vote by switching. Quinn votes Dannex, emphasizing the lack of info we have to go on (hmm…) and asks TJ and Striker if they would change. Striker switches vote to Dannex, telling me to use my dione vote removal on Dannex (basically. There was a little confusion, but anyway, I’d already used my vote removal on Dannex by that point). SfS votes Dannex, citing self-preservation. I change my vote to Dannex, realizing their vagueness and lack of voting (or final votes at least). Dannex post: Not intentionally mostly speaking at beginning, doesn’t get how that would benefit an elim. Cites past games as proof of tendency to not vote early. And then Dannex’s main “Final Words” post. Believes Straw is the spy. Village reads: TJ, Me, Ghander, Striker. Ghander and Striker both have “Village because reasons” as part of their reasoning, which seems odd. Says TJ’s reads make sense and they haven’t done anything sus and says they were just “projecting” their own suspiciousness onto me. Elim: Quinn, SfS, Snipexe (Quinn – starting the train on them, SfS – defensive, Snipexe – not saying much) I mostly wanted to compare Dannex’s final reads to their reads early on, before they were under suspicion, but they didn’t have a lot. Dannex seemed to be keeping quiet a lot and not saying much or adding anything new when they did talk. Their main read post was the one in C3, which didn’t include everyone. They didn’t flip a lot from that one, other than switching me to village. They did change their opinion in-cycle of SfS supposedly, and they switched Quinn from null to elim. They didn’t change their reads of TJ, Ghander, or Striker. Snipexe is the only one who is still alive that wasn’t on Dannex’s C3 reads list. Dannex did say in C1 that they had a hmmmm feeling about Striker and Snipexe, but that’s not much to go off of. At this point, I feel like I’ll probably just ignore Dannex’s last post, because it’s a little too IKYK for me, and I don’t really trust it. This analysis has been a whole lot less helpful than I thought it would be, but I’m going to go back to rereading the whole thread. Dannex didn't really start anything on anybody except me. For now, I guess I’ll place a vote on Somebody, but I’m really not sure. I should finish reading the main thread tonight and have more thoughts by then. I will admit, I'm slightly more suspicious of Quinn based on the reading I've done so far, but not a lot.

I was rereading the main thread and actuallly just got to the order of actions section. Spy research (Detritus/Figment) comes first in the order of actions, before the elim kill, so yeah, if they get their last clue, they should be safe (but Elandera should probably confirm that).

I definitely think that's more likely, but it could be possible. I know healer jobs are hard (I've played enough IRL mafia to know that), and the Straw one would be pretty easy for the Varvax leader to spot, but it's worth keeping in mind that it could be an elim ploy to save themselves. We're pretty certain the elims have a Cambric, because of the two-way tie in the second round. There's another Cambric who voted on Breaker, but we're not sure which side they're on. We know for sure there are two Diones, me and Straw, and there could be more. There are also at least one more each of a Varvax Leader and Heklo (no one said anything about PMs last round, but the last Heklo hasn't died... unless Straw wants to admit whether or not they have Heklo powers from research). We don't really know if there's another figment or tenasi pilot, but at this point, I doubt it.

Idk if I should point this out or not, but they rules say that they can't protect the same target twice in a row, so I think we need to anticipate Straw getting killed by the elims this round, unless they try a different tactic.

You know, even if I die soon, I'm just happy that we actually got rid of an elim! Nice job guys! I assumed that was you, Straw. So either you're telling the truth about being the spy, or this is a big plot by the elims to false clear you, which could be possible if one of the elims is the Varvax Leader and can protect. Actually... that would make sense why no one else has been saved yet... hmm... And I removed Dannex's vote, if anyone was wondering. Oddly enough, there were no votes added (and, unfortunately Dannex didn't have a role, which means there's still probably at least one elim Cambric left). There's 8 of us left and probably either 2 or 3 elims, so either (village-spy-elim) 5-1-2 or 4-1-3, with still one Dione left on the villager side (me!), and two Cambrics, at least one of whom is an elim based on earlier voting. I'm gonna go back and read the threads in a bit and come back with my suspicions. Also gonna glance over Dannex's last post, which gives us a lot to analyze and stew over.

Okay, now that I'm on my laptop I'm officially changing my vote from Somebody to Dannex. I'm also putting out my thoughts/reads on here, mostly so I can organize my own brain but also so my opinions are out here in case I'm killed by the elims. Just... be aware that I have had a 0% success rate of finding elims so far. I'm also tagging everyone to hopefully draw more people into the conversation. Participation, yay! Especially since this could very well be the last round... - @TJ Shade: Since you took over for Experience, I'm inclined to trust you since I think it's unlikely Experience would give up an elim round. You've also made some good reads. You're my most village read at the moment. - @Quinn0928: You feel pretty village to me too. You've offered a lot of good insights, and you didn't need to bring up the idea that Straw could be an elim masquerading as the spy, but you did anyway. I don't think that's something an elim would do. Pretty village for me right now. - @Straw: I'm pretty sure you're actually the spy, based on your research information, although you could also be a second figment. Clearly, either way, you're siding with the elims (and there's not much reason a villager would fake being the spy, I don't think) - @Somebody from Sel: You've said a few phrases that made me sus, and you seemed overly defensive about being put on the suspect list that one time. But you were also not on your phone for the first few rounds. I read you as possible elim. - @Dannex: I'm most suspicious of you right now for only speaking or voting towards the beginning of rounds, and with only vague reasoning, and I just realized that you didn't vote the first two cycles at all? (I also just realized I was wrong about Dannex being the one to vote on Archer leading up to their death). Did you have a reason for not voting the first two rounds that I missed? Mostly elim to me right now. - @Snipexe: So... apparently you haven't voted at all? Am I reading the votes right? I know you've said a decent amount but I am not seeing your name on any of the final vote counts. That seems really suspicious to me. Elim read. - @Ghanderflaffle: You've barely talked at all, and you also didn't vote the first two rounds. That seems really suspicious to me. Did you have a reason? That seems elim to me. - @StrikerEZ: I just realized that you were the one who voted for Archer early on in the cycle that lead to the two-way tie, where a Cambric vote was added on. I'm a little sus of that. Slightly elim to me, but you've also shared some good reasoning, I believe. As a side note, I have a possible theory about who one of the Cambrics is, and if I'm right, I think they can be trusted. But if I'm right (which, given my track record, is highly unlikely), I'd rather not out them. Overall, I'm pretty suspicious of most people. Now that I've looked over the vote counts again (and I apologize for getting Dannex and StrikerEZ mixed up on that Archer vote), I'm more sus of Snipexe. But I feel like I have to stick with Dannex at this point, so we'll see.

Hold up, I've never successfully gotten an elim out, so I'm a little nervous about this. Don't worry, I will indeed be using my vote removal, and I'll be changing my vote when I get on my computer and can actually change text color. But I'm a little nervous how fast people moved onto Dannex since I'm not that confident.

Basically, TJ voted Somebody because they were really defensive during that misunderstanding about why they were on someone's (I think Ashbringer's or Archer's?) suspect list and because they almost caused a three-way tie instead of a two-way tie that time four people tied, which I think was Cycle 2. This was my reasoning for voting Somebody: I'll admit it's not a lot to go on, and now that I've reread more I'm a little more sus of Dannex. But that's the reasoning so far.

At this point I might as well be completely transparent. Yes, I am a Dione, and I'm the one who removed the vote off of Breaker in that round where four people died. I can confirm that that's true, although if you're a Figment, you could also have figured that out, although I'm not sure if there would be more than one of those. Now that the elims know that, they'll probably kill me if I don't get voted off this round, since I'm a vote manipulator. So please believe me when I say that I am a villager and we need to vote someone else or we're done for! I'm not super confident about Somebody, and honestly I'm more suspicious of Dannex because they keep voting early and not really coming back later in the round (and their vote + a most-likely-elim Cambric vote lead to Archer's death in that tie a few rounds ago), but I'm not confident spreading out the vote by switching to Dannex.

Maybe they're trying to draw out the real spy, if they're faking? That's a little far-fetched though. They can win just by voting off an imposter, but they could also win by voting off the spy, and maybe they're trying to mix things up. I'm not super eager to vote Straw, though, since that's a long shot. Also, does anyone have a reason for voting/sussing me other than the fact that I voted for Ventyl?

So the question is, were they trying to give us the best chance/odds, or did they just let insider information slip?