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Liranil

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  1. Liranil
    See, I was thinking it was odd that they went automatically with the lower number of three elims, although that could just be them underestimating since 4 elims would just automatically mean we're done. No matter what, yeah, we have to vote out an elim this cycle.
  2. Liranil
    Okay, but is it that unreasonable that 6 villagers would have voted Ventyl? There were 17 of us at the beginning, and if there are 4 elims, then still, over 2/3 of the people first round were village. The elims could avoid suspicion by just sitting back and letting us vote Ventyl out, knowing they would turn up village. I mean, I know I'm village, and I also think Quinn is village, too. I really don't think it's that unlikely that all 6 voters would be village and the elims would just sit back and let us kill each other. The reason I'm voting Somebody is because of this specific thing they said in cycle 2 (before the four-people death) which I noticed when I reread the thread: "I very much dislike a Matrim kill, as he is a very good village and I would rather have him helping us, rather than cursing us from the grave." (This is on page 12 of the main thread, 4th post down. Idk if this is the right way to quote, idk how to quote across threads) This seems like a really weird statement to make because Somebody is assuming that Matrim is village, which we know was true, but they didn't really consider the fact that Matrim could have been an elim. If Somebody is an elim, they knew that Matrim was innocent (and I think that's where either the elims or the tenasi pilot killed Matrim). Idk, it just sets off alarm bells for me.
  3. Liranil
    Okay, so this leaves us with nine players. If we're still assuming four elims, then it's 4 elims, 4 villagers, and 1 spy. The rules specifically state that the elims need to reach a majority where vote manipulation no longer has any effect, and we know that there are at least two Cambrics and one Dione left in play (two added votes this round for the Cambrics, and last round two votes had been removed, and only one Dione has been killed), so we can assume that one or more of those are village; otherwise, we'd already be done for. Although I do very much hope that part of the reason we're still alive is that there have really only been 3 elims this whole time. That would be a pleasant surprise. I'm curious, why are you assuming this? For roles, there are nine of us left, at least two Cambrics and one Dione, which leaves six. There was still one Heklo left last time, so there must still be at least one here (anyone feel comfortable sharing about being in a PM? Idk if that will help us or not). Striker said last round that they think they know who one of the Heklos is and that they believe that Heklo is trustworthy (and mentioned later that it was one of the three that they trusted, TJ, Snip, or Xino). Presumably, there's also at least one Varvax leader left (and if so, they haven't successfully saved anyone yet, unless I missed that in one of the write-ups). Those two would leave us at four left, and taking off the spy would leave three people without roles or with repeat roles. We're also not sure if the spy has picked up any abilities from their research, but last cycle they had a pretty good chance of gaining an ability (and that may have even been where that extra Cambric vote came from), and I'm guessing they don't have one of the other abilities to start with. I'm not sure how helpful that is, I mostly wrote it out for my own benefit/clarity. For me, Quinn and TJ seem the most village, probably because they both have contributed a lot of really helpful information, and Striker seems more village to me, but I'm not sure why. My top picks for elims right now would be Somebody (due to some odd phrasing in a certain post--am I allowed to quote from the main thread and how would I do that if I am?), Straw (again because of their lack of reasoning on some of their reads posts), and a little of Dannex (more of a gut read). I'm not sure what to think about Snipexe not voting, and Ghander hasn't been on a lot, so I'm not sure about them. I think I'm still alive for two reasons: I've been sussed so I might be a good distraction, and I'm a pretty bad detective apparently. I'd really like to be in a game where we actually get an elim out, but we'll see how this goes. For right now, I'm voting Somebody. As a side note, I just finished reading Starsight and the write-ups make much more sense now! Edit: Ninja'd by TJ
  4. Liranil
    Thank you Quinn and Straw for the bussing definition! I mean, I don't know if I can convince anyone otherwise on that, but I've been sussing Breaker since the very first round (you can check the main thread, page 8) and I feel like if an elim was bussing, they wouldn't start throwing out suspicion on their elim partner that early. I haven't played enough games to know if that's true. Either way, the elims are probably not going to kill me this round, since there are several people who are suspicious of me. Okay, so that makes 6 votes on Breaker and 2 on me, I believe. Since there's 11 of us left, if we assume that there are 4 elims, that means 6 village votes, 1 spy, and 4 elims. I know I'm a villager, which means that at least one person who's voted on Breaker is an elim or the spy. That makes me really nervous, but the only other option right now is me, so I'm not sure. If Breaker does flip elim, it seems like more people will be suspicious of me being a partner. For now though, I'm placing a vote on Breaker, because my guess is that they are an elim and someone is bussing... just not me. I'm not sure about anybody else, mostly the same as my earlier post, although I'm slightly more sus of Dannex. This post does make me a little sus, mostly because there are theories but no reasoning. Care to share your reasoning behind all of this, Striker? I'm especially curious about why you chose those specific possible spies.
  5. Liranil
    My main reason for not voting yet was because there was already pressure on Breaker from other votes, and I want to hear what they have to say about my questions (plus I've been doing most of my posts this round on my phone and I haven't figured out how to change text color on mobile yet). Also, what is bussing?
  6. Liranil
    lollll, what will you be tomorrow?
  7. Liranil
    I have no idea what that is? Could I get an explanation so I can defend myself better, or at least for future reference? @Breaker, you still haven't answered my questions from earlier. What is your reasoning for being suspicious of me, other than the fact that I sussed you? So it looks like I'm on the defensive right now. Fun. First time being seriously voted for! XD I'm not sure exactly how to defend myself here, but if anyone has specific questions to ask me, I'm willing to answer. At this point, I'm an open book. And a villager, but I know that doesn't mean much coming from me. I haven't quite decided who to vote yet. BrightEyes seemed suspicious to me last round because they put us into a tie, and I switched my vote because I was beginning to be less suspicious of Breaker, but that was before all of the weird vote-switching at the end. I agree with TJ that that was highly suspicious. Breaker, any explanation on why you switched your vote last minute several times? My elim reads right now are Breaker (as reasoned above and some last round, and for sussing me and then waiting to vote until after Dannex did), Xino (mild, because a vote was removed off of them), Straw (for voting on Quinn when they said Snipexe was more suspicious and that same post had some weird reasoning), and Striker (they haven't been saying much but have voted, and I'm concerned their early vote on Archer last round was part of the elim plan for the tie at the end). I'm not super confident on village reads (tbh I'm sus of everyone at least a little), but Quinn has had some really good reasoning, and Dannex seemed just as weirded out by all of the vote-switching at the end (although that could have been an act). Everyone else, I'm not sure. It's all kind of blurring together at this point. I'm tempted to vote Breaker because I've been sus of them so long and for possible self-preservation, but I'm really second-guessing everything, so idk. I'm probably going to do a roles analysis for my own sanity in a bit that I'll probably post for everyone else, too.
  8. Liranil
    ...oof. Wait, do they need to tie us or outnumber us?
  9. Liranil
    TJ's analysis seems pretty solid to me, and I'm inclined to trust them as I don't think Experience would pass up a chance to be elim (based on my one game with them...). That's understandable. I actually assumed there were 2 or more of both Diones and Cambrics, which would mean that someone would need at least four more votes than other players to prevent a tie, so I wanted as wide a gap as possible to diminish the power of vote manipulation. Idk if that helps my case or not. One thing we haven't talked a lot about is the Detritus Spy, other than the fact that if they die, someone switches to elim. I feel like someone already asked this, but I can't find the answer, so @Elandera, if the spy dies, are they announced in the write-up as the spy? I don't know how to quote from other threads/the rules, but what I want to point out here is this: if the Detritus Spy researches someone who has a role and gets information from them, they can use that person's ability for the remainder of the game. There was a reason I thought that was important, but my brain stopped functioning so if I remember where I was going with that, I'll mention it. Also as a note, the Varvax leader (the one who can protect someone from Suppression or Tenasi kills) hasn't been killed yet, and we also haven't had a Cambric or a Dione die yet. We have 11 people left, so if we're right about there being four elims, then there are still 4 elims, 1 spy, and 6 village. Which means we're uncomfortably close to... Exe or Lose? (Whatever the new version of LyLo is). I'll come back with my reads and vote when I have more time.
  10. Liranil
    Just so we're on the same page, can you outline your reasoning for me as your prime suspect? I know I've been sus of you for a while (and still am a little), but is there more to your suspicion than that? As for my thoughts so far... I always work better with numbers, and this vote count gives us some good ones. There are at least two Diones since none of those who died were Diones, and two votes were removed, one off Breaker (either Somebody's or Matrim's) and one off Xino (either Archer's or BrightEyes'). A Cambric also added a vote to Archer, which lead to a tie and their death. Based on that, I'd say the Cambric is definitely an elim since I can't see a villager adding to a tie like that, unless they did that early on before all of the craziness happened in the last hour or so. As for the Diones, it could go either way. Edit: Ninja'd by Dannex Hmm, that's worth looking into. I'm going to reread Matrim's posts and see if that helps. And I think Archer was the one who thought there was only one Heklo, so that doesn't help much. So based on Elandera's order of operations, there's still at least one Heklo alive, too. Edit: didn't mean to double post, I though Breaker's post was in between my two.
  11. Liranil
    That did not go well at all.
  12. Liranil
    Okay, I've been rereading things and I'm more sus of BrightEyes and less of Breaker. I'm not confident enough to support a tie right now. We did agree ties were bad unless we were reasonably sure about both people, which is why I shifted my vote, since I'm not that sure.
  13. Liranil
    BrightEyes definitely seems more sus to me now, but I'm not sure we could get enough people switched over to make it decisive before rollover. I'm torn on Straw, somewhat because they just spread out the vote even more, but I'm not sure an elim would do that... Unless they were trying to lay low (getting caught being right, as Archer said. Breaker, convince me to switch my vote off of you! (I also don't want to be your enemy, and i hope you come back to play another game even if you die. Edit: ninja'd
  14. Liranil
    ...This is not at all what I expected you to say based on your spoiler! I'm really surprised you put Ashbringer and Archer as Village because you sounded suspicious of them in your summary, but maybe I'm misreading it. I'm also very uncomfortable with you putting us so close to a four-way tie. Quinn took their vote off of Archer, which helps, but I'm still nervous about this. I'm leaving my vote on Breaker since Archer is the one I considered switching to, and at least Breaker is being Tie Breaker.
  15. Liranil
    Rereading that post, I should have been more specific. I mostly meant that sussing someone because they sussed you isn't a good long-term strategy, or isn't helpful all the time. I definitely think it's good for someone to defend themselves, and it can be helpful in some situations. Hopefully that clarifies what I meant! Right now we only have about nine hours left and less than half of us (7/15) have voted and we have a three-way tie between Archer, Breaker, and Matrim. I'm worried that the elims are laying low to see if they can force a tie or to see if they need to protect someone. Last time only 11/17 people voted (with one vote removal) and two of those who voted are now dead. I'm leaning towards changing my vote to move us away from a tie, and if I did, I'd probably vote Matrim, since Archer seems more village to me right now. I'm holding off for now since out of those three, Breaker is most sus to me (and has also flipped away from demanding to die XD). I'm going to hold out a bit longer, though.
  16. Liranil
    I'm okay with being on your sus list, everyone's on mine (I overthink everything ). Although that's usually not a good strategy as "you're sus cuz you sussed me" looks really defensive. But I definitely get jumping all in for your first game to get the full experience! That's something I'm trying to do more this game. Fair point. Someone earlier did mention that this could be an elim team of more inexperienced players, and if it is, Breaker could be the most dominant. I'm leaving my vote for now, but tbh I might switch later to prevent a tie (unless it's between two people I'm sus of).
  17. Liranil
    I definitely think a lot of this reasoning is sound, although I'm not entirely sure that this was a fear kill. It could also be a more experienced player trying to make it look like a fear kill, or (especially if the elims are less experienced) a more random kill with not as much thought put behind it. I also disagree with your assessment of Breaker; based on their brazen play style so far, I would not be surprised at all if they proposed a kill first round if they were an elim. Additionally, Ghanderflaffle and Somebody could have been less active here because they were more active in the elim doc. So I'd probably have a larger list of suspects than you, but other than that, this mostly makes sense. Um, I'm pretty sure they took you off of the suspect list. And elims have probably voted for those people... For right now, I'm voting Breaker. I'm kind of sus of Archer too, but I was suspicious of Breaker last round, especially because they are playing like Archer did in their first game (as Archer said). Plus, after Straw asked Archer for clarification about whether they were sussing Breaker or not, Breaker's response was kinda accusatory. If it starts to look like a broad tie again, I may switch. We'll see.
  18. Liranil
    So I haven't looked back at the rules, but can't there be more than one Heklo?
  19. Liranil
    Just to try and prevent a tie, Ventyl. Their switch to Matrim did seem a little fishy, but even if they're village, one village exed is better than two or more.
  20. Liranil
    Okay, so I've been trying to keep up with everything, so if I mention something that's been discussed or already dismissed... just ignore it I guess. There's been a lot said already. Right now Breaker is at the top of my suspect list, just because they seem to be acting very similar to Archer in their first game, where they were an elim (as several people mentioned). This may be completely wrong, but I've gotten the feeling that new players tend to be more active when they're elims because they know more of what's going on (anyone who has played more than one game, feel free to correct me on that, though). I'm also a little sus of Dannex from their role analysis post earlier, mostly because I'm wary of anyone who so strongly tells someone how to use their roles. My main worry are ties, though, especially if the elims could get three or four villagers tied if we don't lean on one person. I do agree that we could use the tie to our advantage, but only if we have enough information to be sure about at least one person. For round one, though, I'm saving my vote to (hopefully) help break a tie, if needed.
  21. Liranil
    I'll go ahead and jump and mention that I probably won't be too active until after Christmas. I'm still getting used to how these games work, but I definitely think it's better to overestimate the number of elims.
  22. Liranil
    I think I will sign up! I haven't gotten to read Starsight yet, though.
  23. Liranil
    I usually recommend Mistborn first just because it's not as huge and intimidating and it helps them get to know Sanderson's writing style while not having a ton of lore that you're suddenly thrown into.
  24. Liranil
    Ooh, this sounds really interesting! I might sign up, or I may just watch. How many players are you looking for?
  25. Liranil

    My take on Sarene

    Liranil commented on Liranil's gallery image in Elantris Art

    My take on Sarene
    Thank you!! She did turn out looking a little older than I had imagined her, too. Thank you!! I don't mind at all!! I'd love to see what you do!
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