Aeternum

I didn't read back through posts like I was planning on so I dunno and I haven't felt like reading. I then proceeded to go read so here's my thoughts for now. Would lean towards voting between Illwei or Steel here, just not sure whether I consider TwinStorm unpaired from Illwei slot off of d1 or not. KelsierApologist's readlist d1 gave a non read on Gaea/Illwei slot which is concerning I suppose. The slot did vote an elim at a good time on d1 though, so meh. The funny part is that TwinStorm kept soft defending the slot with posts like this one, which is also concerning. Terrisman is kind of a busser like me if elim and had pretty good d2 posts that imo were important to why TUF did die that day, even if it's mostly parroting stuff I said in doc to Terrisman, saying it in the thread gets points from me. The point came up at some point that Sitters have more incentive to bus, and I'm fairly certain an elim had to have bussed at some point (at the very least BridgeBoi thought both TwinStorm and TUF were elims; Illwei pushed TwinStorm; Steel pushed I forgot who d1; Terrisman pushed TUF d2). So I don't know how much I should clear Terrisman for the strong push on TUF (and notably moved thread away from ToW, who was town, back to TUF, who was elim), because yeah I'd bus there too lol. The last elim d2 was forced to bus, looking at VCs again, so maybe nothing from d2 is that clearing. Atp it's more whether or not I think BridgeBoi is just an elim or not, because if so today is pretty much useless. I don't know if I should have concerns on how TwinStorm treated BridgeBoi because usually that should be pocketing, but TwinStorm doesn't go about it in a very pocket-y way imo. But then TwinStorm is a lot newer than what I'm used to looking for, so I don't really know.

Somehow I think e!me just kills you. I think I could talk my way out of a direct kill like that if I needed to lol. I never got a good response on why Steel is strongly townread by many but I thought Steel was fine when I read back yesterday, enough that I went from considering voting Steel to not. Don't really know. NKs are the easiest thing to fake (case in point: those who wanted to clear TUF for the n1), so I'm not interested to read into it and basing your entire read off of NKA is always going to be flawed imo. @Terrisman when I flip town, who do you look at. I'll read back through posts later.

Do we need to depose or not tonight or are we fine to skip this for a cycle.

My reads don't have to be perfect to be good, I voted at least one town this game I think. Good by my standards. I am allowed to be wrong, so if you're town and I'm wrong, lol me I guess. Trying to use me saying my reads have been on point, which they have been if you check my d1 posts, is... not a good way to push someone. I explained that your vote on me was opportunistic imo. I changed my read on your slot off of that. I do not see a problem with my progression there. There's a fancy term we use for reads like that. Explain my elim agenda for bussing TwinStorm every day ty. Explain why Ash is an elim while you're at it as well.

Oh yeah here's the updated version of my VCs. I pushed TwinStorm all game and you show no sign of taking that into account in your reads. A static worldview is wolfy. My votes are notably not bad given TwinStorm flipped elim lol. I am allowed to change my worldview and I am allowed to call your 180 on me opportunistic and wolfy. My reads are on point by my standards, like this would be considered a very good game for me. It's unimportant to you if you don't know me. Other than Terrisman, who is actually probably fine looking at day 2 again unless I want to talk about some potential TMI moments that have been sitting in my head for a couple days that is 90% unimportant, probably could look at Illwei again, although I sort of talked myself out of it. Don't really understand the strong Steel townreads. If Terrisman keeps tunneling me, I will probably start treating it like a wolf claim because people who tunnel and do not re-eval their worldview are either elims or anti-town enough to get policy voted. Terrisman is also having an inability to comprehend that worldviews can change, which kind of ties back into static worldview and imo is wolfy given Terrisman keeps going "well you townread me earlier so townread me now?" kind of thing, plus Terrisman tried to get me to vote for them for the Seat in our doc on the same grounds of "but you townread me before". It's bad imo. Ash/Illwei both can be bussers, although I liked Ash's treatement of Drake early and drawing a lot of attention to Drake in a way that isn't usually e/e unless you're hellbussing for some reason that early (which is slightly possible given elims were kind of getting crushed tbf). Illwei is kind of meh. STINK is the only one who would've had zero bussing but I'm not really sold because I think that v!BridgeBoi being elected in an e/e doc there doesn't make much sense, and it also makes a bit more sense to spread remaining elims out across docs rather than 3 in one and 2 in another. I don't really know who I want to vote anymore, I sort of want to keep my Terrisman vote but meh. I don't really mind any flips here.

Welcome to the Shard!

Welcome to the Shard!

I'm willing, I'd rather be the backup because I'd prefer someone who has been around in the community more than I have to represent SE Appreciate the nomination!

Oh this is awkward, I assumed I died d4 and took a nice break from checking the site because I get upset about getting misexe'd and didn't really want to think about that. My bad for disappearing. Probably just vote Terrisman for lack of re-eval after a red flip, it's just wolfy and Terrisman tried to move off of TwinStorm d4 in a way that looks terrible given TwinStorm was an elim. I'll look through VCs again later maybe. Do I need to worry about the Seat thing soon or nah. Anyways my reads have been fairly on point by my standards this game so I'm pretty happy about that. Cya.

I can pinch hit, probably.

Given I am not voting right now and don't intend to, I suggest your rework your worldview. I have progression on ToW unlike your lack of progression on me, so your point there is null. I am repeating, once again, that the n1 was very clearly a low info bait kill that makes perfect sense when TUF flipped elim, because the NK was meant to throw people off of voting TUF, and it did work, for a bit, before everyone went back to TUF. Reread d2, it is obvious that is what the kill was meant for. I am obvious town this just always happens because people apparently overestimate me and don't understand the way I play. e!me literally always busses - I both have a meta of bussing and I have very clearly stated that I expect bussing and am used to bussing, so you should be able to draw a conclusion of what e!me would do there reasonably. Would probably give Seat to BridgeBoi. You'll be 6 v 1 or 5 v 2 tomorrow, so the Seat I believe will matter because it's not lylo and you'll have a vote night cycle or something, I dunno because I didn't read that part of the setup.

I'd flip TwinStorm for d2 wagons, partially. Feels a bit late to be making an info flip given the amount of inactivity modkills. Not really sure how much I feel TwinStorm flipping elim, realistically TwinStorm should've always flipped yesterday, I simply was not thinking enough. TwinStorm works as elim given wagons. I assume you would understand what to look at in a v!TwinStorm world on d2 wagons. I trust BridgeBoi slightly over Terrisman here rn because Terrisman is opportunistic with that 180 on my slot. If Terrisman doesn't show up for the rest of day to answer my question, you should have concerns. If the Seat doesn't matter because of numbers, just elect whoever. If it does matter, gl I guess. There's some Illwei/BridgeBoi world I'm too afraid of to be able to fully trust BridgeBoi atm. BridgeBoi/TwinStorm are likely unaligned. Would be slightly worried about Steel getting so many TRs without any explanation. If TwinStorm and I are v/v, game is probably over without looking at numbers. You should read through the game again at some point if you haven't already given how close to losing we are now, rip the big lead we had. The n1 kill was clearly bait. The n2 kill was universal. The n3 kill I would look at anyone who cleared Wiz fairly quickly, maybe, but it felt like a reasonable kill given Wiz had good votes so I'm not inclined to read into it much. I'm not self pressing, gl gl.

My Sitter is betraying me and doesn't even have a real reason to vote me I don't threadpull so me pocketing you does not allow me to just kill whoever I want. Why am I an elim, Terrisman? Outside of "oh no I think I'm getting pocketed", go write a case. Go find a real reason. Noted on the Drake/STINK thing - I slightly lean towards STINK being more likely town off of it still because in a world of e/e/v in their doc, I feel like they would be trying to pocket BridgeBoi? And I think it would be fairly easy for them to just nominate each other and get BridgeBoi to go along with it, and elims having Sitters is more important to their wincon. Ftr at least one Ajah should be pure (even if two more elims), if no one noticed already.

I don't usually do extensive VCA, I check my reads against VCs to make sure they make sense. If I actually... had enough reads I could check against VCs. I got the VCs and went to sleep because I was exhausted. If TwinStorm is town, probably look at Illwei next. Think Ash and Terrisman are town. Everyone else not really sure, have some gth reads but doesn't really matter. I can't read low content posters so STINK could just be town who just is not very findable to me, but I'd like to hear why exactly my Ajah is not pure. I remember thinking I disliked Steeldancer's posts last night, so I am fairly surprised Steeldancer is Sart's top town. I had thoughts related to this but it's basically just that my reads mean that Grey and Yellow would both be pure here. I would be slightly surprised if BridgeBoi was elected as Sitter in a world where both Drake and STINK are elims, I think? @BridgeBoi could you elaborate a bit on what happened with the votes again? I don't feel like hunting through pages to find it.

I'm getting absolutely taken out by a cold rn, sorry. I'll try to be more active during day phase. Don't think we should vote in Seat until we absolutely have to, which is probably next cycle? Atp the Seat is probably best wincon for elims. Edit: Terrisman, still trust the most out of the Sitter and don't really want Terrisman to be Stilled.

For reference. ToW Busy this weekend and won't be around much. Ash is probably town ftr.

It's 4-5 elims likely, meaning 1-2 left. Just keep killing elims until we win. We have somewhere around 4+ misexes here so I don't care that much, but it's likely the Seat thing is more important (and more likely to elim wincon rn over outnumbering town), and that's within the next two cycles or something like that, I don't really care to figure it out. They would've needed to be online. There's 1-2 elims with varying amounts of activity, who may have just Not Been Around at EoD1. Elims knew they were losing TUF at some point. Drake was inactive so they were effectively short an elim since d1, and Drake was likely just completely not around at all during n1/d2. Fmpov elims always should bus TUF there to set up a deepwolf, especially if there is only one elim left. They're basically soloing, given TUF was likely always dying at some point, Drake was missing, and KelsierApologist died d1. I don't really see a world where TUF didn't get bussed, unless there are multiple players on the TUF wagon who are known to not have a bussing meta and aren't comfortable with bussing. I personally love bussing so idk why someone wouldn't like that, and TUF gave elim who asked to get bussed vibes. I dunno, I would've bussed TUF because that's how you set up for endgame. You're not going to win by siding with an elim who is always going to die at some point. Unless anyone wants to argue that TUF was magically going to get townread and survive, because I doubt that given TUF had basically given up d2 and posted a defensive post and that's it. Maybe my logic is just not correct for this site, but like. Bus and set up as deepwolf to win feels really straightforward to me and I just cannot see it any other way. It feels like I'm talking in circles about it at this point, and no one has given me a worldview that seems viable and explains a no bussing world, other than Kas being paranoid of me, since Kas never responded to me before dying. Will look at d2 later as in probably never. If you assume no bussing d1, probably just kill TwinStorm lol. If you assume no bussing d2, you probably clear TwinStorm and burn the entire wagon from what I remember, pretty sure TwinStorm is always town in no bussing worlds on d2 as cw. Edit: Something Ash said d1 crossed my mind about the way people reacted to Ash voting Drake, so: Post from Sart voting Gaea after Gaea voted Drake. From Terrisman loosely, since Gaea had unvoted Drake by then. Here is where Ash votes Drake, and then there's ThatOneWorldhopper's response here which is um. A response. Maybe just kill this ngl. Ash/Wizard probably both town, Wizard is probably more likely a deepwolf, I dunno, people need to explain some reasoning behind their votes a bit more. Don't really trust myself to read Sart rn because I know I am biased towards people who vote me. Thought that crossed my mind is that Sitters probably have more incentive to bus than non-Sitters, for whatever that means.

Kas I hope you're having fun with this one in dead doc This is a weird scenario rn. We're probably down to 1-2 elims left. 12 players is 11 v 1 or 10 v 2 likely, so we are in a comfortable spot. Kas was a universal kill and expected. We're down to three Sitters, which probably means something in terms of electing the Seat soon. Will think more later.

Terrisman is my Ajah's Sitter and he is extremely pure from our talks in doc. A lot of his thoughts in thread directly reflect our talks in doc, and he can confirm this. If I'm feeling confident in a read, that's generally rare and it's a very high level of confidence overall lol. If you care, I'm not 100% confident, and there are dumb things I am paranoid of. Idt Terris should be elected for Seat, and I do not think Seat should basically ever be elected when we are winning, and town wincon is exe all elims, and has nothing to do with the Seat. Don't really know what benefits the Seat gives and whether it's worth it, but if we are really crushing the elims, I don't see why we should give them a chance when they have wincons involving the Seat election. If you don't think elims bussed, you're looking at v!TwinStorm wagon having multiple elims most likely, because e!TwinStorm means there should 100% be at least one elim bussing. Or elims were inactive, given how many people felt like they just didn't show up yesterday. I dunno. You might have a better idea of what some individual players would do in that situation given you have more experience with them, but I am very used to bussers, so I assume bussing. Our views on threadstate probably don't match up because of that, and threadstate to me felt like TUF was always getting bussed there if elim. If I was an elim in that situation, where TUF felt like a dying slot, I would bus TUF to the ground and take the credit, and probably tell me team to. If I were TUF, I would tell my team to bus me in that situation. I am used to bussing wins games. Elims getting crushed rn, and with two elim flips in a row this early, I would assume elims are going to set someone up deep, which bussing achieves. If elims felt like TUF was going to die, which was seeming very likely n1 and d2, then they likely had someone bus. TUF felt more like walking into an elim exe, don't know how to phrase it, but thread sort of just went along with the kill. I'm willing to hear you out if you can paint a good picture of how elims saw the cycle in a way that means they didn't bus, it's just something I personally can't see and I'm not used to seeing. imo TUF wasn't really going to be alive very long, and I think elims likely would recognized that when TUF was catching pressure late d1 and throughout n1. It's hard for me to see a world where elims saw TUF was in danger of dying (and was getting Stilled), after losing an elim d1, and didn't either distance or make an attempt to save TUF. There was a series of votes where TUF went from top wagon to having one vote, and then back to 5 or something votes. If the final wagon was pure, then TwinStorm is basically always town and elims likely stacked on TwinStorm, assuming activity. Having to factor in Maybe Elims Just Weren't There is kind of throwing me off but w/e. I'm just not willing to clear anyone for voting TUF given the way I saw the exe go down. Since you do know better here specifically, you probably know whether certain players would be more likely to bus or not, given I'm modeling what I think the elims would do off of what I am used to seeing, which is not drawn from players or games here. So shrugs, I am willing to look at what you believe the elim mindset was yesterday and compare it to what I think, because I'm probably not completely accurate on the threadstate. I just don't see it in another way rn, and if you do, I'm not seeing what you're seeing.

Idt = I don't think fwiw = for what it's worth I was keeping tabs on the page, but I was fine with either flip, given I read both as elims. It might just be that I'm used to looking for bussers and I'm used to assuming someone bussed. Bussing, as it turns out, leads to elims winning a lot. Last time I lowered my standards here for assuming if there was a bus or not, there was someone who bussed and they won. So I'm assuming bussing up to what I'm used to. Also because TUF was consensus at end of n1 / start of d2. Elims likely assumed he was very likely to die, and don't know about anyone else, but I would bus TUF there. Given that the wagon took off again close to end of d2, I expect there was someone bussing a dying slot, basically. The impression I got was "oh no we need a Sitter" Mark by the looks of it was fine with electing our Sitter as long as they could engage with the thread enough (my slot at this point was inactive so didn't have a say in it). There wasn't really much to it? No one seemed to really want to be the Sitter. Fmpov, TUF was always going to die, whether that was d2 or d3. Even if thread wasn't voting TUF the entire time, it was unsurprising that TUF still ended up being the flip off of the direction thread started it, and how it got brought back around to that point. TUF imo was a dying slot. Hence why I expect bussing.

Welcome to the Shard! Who's your least favorite character?

Terrisman is extremely pure. Shows really good intent and focus on solving. Extrapolate off of this because I don't feel like towncasing. I'm an extremely paranoid person and have been on and off considering if I'm getting fooled very well, and then Terrisman will say something that makes me fine to lock in the read. So me being confident should say something imo. That was my initial thought working off of BridgeBoi being pretty squarely in my PoE, but as it turns out, I just forgot a lot of BridgeBoi's content posts. So I kind of retracted that. Interested in looking at the other Sitters as well since I've been mostly ignoring them. There's a lot of people I haven't been paying attention to tbf lol. Not really paying attention to mech but didn't realize that was how it worked.