Aeternum

Both TwinStorm and TUF were wolfreads for me is elimreads a thing, it bothers me with the inconsistency. My vote still supports my worldview. Think all top wagons I liked flipping. Shrugs. I put wagons at 1 off of a tie to see if anyone would go to save one over the other, and no one went to tie it (probably because tying it atp would look terrible, if an elim was online and not voting there already).

Dropping some thoughts for my future reference: TUF was consensus at the end of n1 - this push was led by Kas, and a lot of people were fine to sheep it. There was basically zero pushback - elims either were already bussing / not trying to save TUF at this point (viable world because iirc Kas had floated the idea of e!TUF late d1?), or just weren't around. I'd say I'm leaning towards the rest of the team being lower impact / less vocal players, but honestly I think I can reasonably see most of the game being considered a low impact player, because fmpov Kas is threadpulling and no one is getting close. That being said, there's a lot of players who are sheeping current thread consensus (consider: when ToW was under more pressure, there was movement there without much reason I think. idk I'm pulling stuff out of my memory and will eventually fact-check it), and some of them I think could/have to be town. Given TUF was saveable around mid d2 when pressure moved off and we had a 3 way tie for a bit - I'm thinking this supports the idea of low impact team. Some stuff here probably hinges on TwinStorm's alignment and whether wagons were e/v or e/e. In an e/v world, elims weren't online at EoD I suppose? Sort of want to give STINK points for this, but also it would've only tied the wagons. A tie is better than not though, meh. Depends on elim mindset. Will say that TUF flipping elim gives me pause on TwinStorm and makes me want to look at ToW. In an e!TwinStorm or e!ToW world (not really feeling e/e here), town was on fire yesterday with 2 elims wagoned. Specifically in e!TwinStorm worlds, we had e/e wagons, which is uh, insane and rip the elims. I honestly don't really know what that means in that case lol. Definitely bussing, perhaps could take a look at those who moved to ToW in that case. The Wandering Wizard dropped an early vote, and a quick skim of Wizard's previous posts didn't really show any prior mention of this n1. Correct me if I'm wrong. Wizard had some ok posts and has felt twice now like he's voted at a crucial moment, but also fits the profile for deepest elim. Didn't look in full, so don't listen to me rn. I dunno, the early vote with no reasoning is bad, when I basically expected elims to walk in and bus given e!TUF means town is crushing the elims and they need someone to get cred to live. this post (Steeldancer) is bad post-flip. Same with this post (Ash). This was why I felt like thread wanted to move away from TUF fwiw. ThatOneWorldhopper voted TwinStorm during time when thread was looking away from TUF, which is meh? Wizard unvoted, which was eh. Puts TUF wagon at one. And then Terrisman brought the wagon back, Kas voted there, and I kind of expect there's bussing after those votes. The Unknown Flame (6): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, Ashbringer, Kasimir, BridgeBoi, Terrisman I wrote some stuff about thinking BridgeBoi was an elim, but I'm kind of leaning towards maybe not on a skim of BridgeBoi's posts again - turns out I forgot a lot of their content. Not really sure there anymore. I have slight concerns on Ash for dropping TUF on a NKA basis, but judging by comments from others, NKA is something Ash does a lot of, and Kas also did this same thing wow almost like I was correct the NK was a distraction. Ash... didn't really have a reason to vote TUF. Probably have more concerns on Ash over Wizard rn, given both are my candidate slots for active elim (whatever is the equivalent term of "deepwolf" here). While I'm here - was Jo townread for a valid reason n1? Don't really feel like checking, and "Jo made a spreadsheet" is not a valid reason. Shrugs. I think it would be funny if true, but also means that there are several pure Ajahs I think? Off of my estimate of how many elims there should be in total (4-5, I've been mentally working with 4 for some reason), that puts 3 in one Ajah and 1 in another Ajah, out of 6 iirc Ajahs. With 5, you've still got half the Ajahs as pure I think. Which is... interesting? If enough people think their Ajahs feel pure, yeah this is viable. Otherwise it's more like 4 elims spread out across 3 Ajahs (again, half are pure then), or 5 elims across 4 Ajahs. Shrugs? I thought this would convince me out of it, but honestly it feels very possible. Meh I'm kind of wolfsiding and idc if you kill me for it. 15 alive should be either 13 v 2 or 12 v 3, worse case 11 v 4 I suppose. Minus one for NK. Idt ToW/BridgeBoi/TwinStorm solves fwiw. Also while I'm here, Terrisman. Not for Seat, but for not getting Stilled. Wouldn't mind looking at the other Sitters because I've been basically ignoring them (and they've felt fairly nonexistent for the last phase), but definitely think Terrisman is town. Didn't proofread so if I contradicted myself then lol.

At least one elim bussed imo - would check the early d2 votes on TUF (especially those following consensus who didn't have an actual read there). I'll do this at some point. Slightly surprised no one moved to save TUF in the end given I put wagons at 6-5 - either elims weren't online, were bussing, or... didn't care? Or wagons were e/e lol. BridgeBoi should be Stilled today imo. Absolutely not voting in a Seat when we're winning - there is no point in taking the risk.

Is maybe an elim.

TwinStorm Didn't realize wagons were so close, let's make it more exciting

Ngl I don't quite understand why Ash is high in a lot of reads I've seen, but haven't bothered to ask. A lot of people have been quiet today who I'd like to hear more from. 2 of the TUF wagon I think are elims rn lol, although I'm not exactly liking people on TwinStorm wagon either. ThatOneWorldhopper.

Imo a lot of people do not have a reason to vote TUF and are just following consensus (honestly I'm getting worried with how much it feels like people are following consensus - also feels like it happened with other wagons). Kind of giving me whiplash over this because it was TUF consensus dying today -> people floated away from TUF which I was worried about -> TUF must die pt 2, which now I am also worried about. If TUF is an elim, he's getting bussed a lot. If he's town, he's a free misexe for elims. Don't really know which one I would lean towards being true anymore. Realistically, e!TUF should be saveable unless ThatOneWorldhopper/TwinStorm are also both elims - both of the latter two have been floated as votes and could take off. I partially want to just follow through with a TUF exe just for the flip, and partially am really disliking the wagon and want to kill someone who I wolfread more. While I'm here, reminder that BridgeBoi is probably an elim still lol.

Should probably die. Fair. I don't know what went on in their doc so I have no idea if (in an e/e/v world) maybe they ended up getting backed into a corner with where their votes went, or didn't have reasonable enough grounds to vote each other. Shrugs. Kill wolfy posters lol. Will say there is a chance (which I was considering) that KelsierApologist was coached into writing the pairing theatre line that I have a lot of issue with (which... honestly I have no idea who would suggest that so I can't really worldbuild off of that), but I am going with the simple Wow Theatre take on it. Also came to mind on TwinStorm's fairly quick (iirc) vote back to ThatOneWorldhopper. Sort of depends on e!TwinStorm range I suppose - I'm just not going to overthink it rn.

TwinStorm Worth looking at Mark and ThatOneWorldhopper rn imo. Don't think TwinStorm/ThatOneWorldhopper are e/e, but don't like either of them. @A Jo in the Bush n1 you shared a spreadsheet that I assume you were in the process of working on - has this gone anywhere?

"I fear Aet's e!range" is not a reason to wolfread me, smh. It's an easy point to hide against because you probably don't know my e!range (Illwei is the only one here who has seen e!me recently), given I haven't randed elim here since... LG100 I believe, which was almost a year ago. But that is not an actual reason lol. You're also likely completely overestimating my e!range, and you wouldn't be the first - feel free to describe my elim agenda to me if you have an actual reason that I am not seeing, shrugs. Ftr I'm looking at a world of v!TwinStorm -> w!ThatOneWorldhopper. I'm leaning towards ThatOneWorldhopper being an elim here anyways - there were some self-aware posts that pinged me and that vote is very wolfy in v!TwinStorm worlds. The issue is that a lot of newbie town are really self-aware like that, and will make bad votes that are sheeping the current thread consensus. So take it with a grain of salt (or like, 20), I suppose. Think pressure there is good. TwinStorm had bad d1 posts, but ThatOneWorldhopper has had bad d2 posts. Don't mind Mark pressure. One day I will actually read Mark's posts. Think BridgeBoi should be Stilled tonight and pressured - BridgeBoi has been mostly ignored and has floated around without doing much. TUF is sort of in needs to be resolved territory for me right now, unless TUF towntells extremely hard here. That's sort of my opinion, but I do not think that's the sort of slot you leave alive rn for threadstate purposes. Tells you a lot about the game to flip a slot like that imo - and I still think there is a decent chance of TUF flipping elim shrugs. If I was high effort, I'd meta check because it's possible this is within TUF town meta (which I mentioned to my Ajahmates earlier), since sometimes, townies do weird things. I don't think there is any genuine intent to solve from TUF, though, so really cannot end up in my townreads, and I very dislike the way thread is treating TUF right now. I think Terrisman is basically always town, high confidence. Kas is most likely town, and I trust town will know when to correctly tinfoil Kas so that I don't have to actually check my read there in full. I'm going to point out again - that is an incredibly unusual NK and it's meant to distract. I think it is absolutely pure wifom to use the NK as a defense and I'm not willing to clear anyone for it, but I am willing to listen to Kas's points on who would be less likely to make the kill. I'm not a NKA solver lol. Insert the rest of the paragraph I wrote here then deleted because it's mostly w/e. I have a lot of names I'm fine with voting rn, which is... not really great in terms of my reads.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by TwinStorm fitting the profile well? Why TwinStorm over other similar slots? I would absolutely be willing to NK a new player unless my team was opposed (if you care about my NK meta, I prefer either vocal/obvious town targets and anyone who pushes me slightly, but usually I let my team lead for NKs and I don't low info kill by choice, personally). I gave my thoughts on the NK already, shrugs.

It's more that TwinStorm's n1 posts were ok enough that I've been considering if I'm wrong, given I have a... not so great record at reading newer players, and it is possible I just dislike the way TwinStorm just makes posts. His n1 posts were not extremely wolfy the way I found a lot of his d1 posts, they were just ok posts. ftr I agree a lot with your point there - I thought that KelsierApologist had a really theatre-y comment aimed at TwinStorm). My main points against TwinStorm are wolfy posts d1 imo, and that theatre point. Kas seems to think differently and I am a sheep can see Kas's point of view on TwinStorm. Also, Sart is also a sitter and can't be voted today

Feeling slightly concerned about the way people are accepting moving away from TUF in a way that makes me think a lot of people did not have a real reason to be voting or pushing TUF other than "wow consensus". Which is concerning, but I'm not sure how concerning I find it right now. I support a TUF vote partially for threadstate reasons, and a TwinStorm vote. Will likely vote there later, but I'd still like there to be more pressure on STINK, who has been way too under the radar imo. Would extend this to apply to Drake, but he's just completely not here so not worth pushing rn.

BridgeBoi can't be voted today, unfortunately. Still have TwinStorm in PoE, but not as locked there as I was before, because some of TwinStorm's n1 posts were better, and I've been considering if TwinStorm is the latest on my list of newbies who I read incorrectly after reading through Kas's thoughts on TwinStorm. Mark has been mostly uninteresting to me - we're in an Ajah together and I've been fine with what Mark has been saying in our doc so I'm not overly concerned, but not strongly townreading.

Would like actual pressure on STINK. Hi Illwei

(Not as much as here from what I've seen, kind of depends on the site - people elsewhere do like giving newbies space, but will still ruthlessly murder them ) Not against NKA in that form mhm. I do think the kill is kind of wifom meant to distract because it's likely just a low info kill.

This is getting into wolfy self awareness imo. Would like to note I do not think the NK is clearing for anyone who would say they would not make that kill. I agree that it's a bit disappointing to kill a new player and know that it's a bit of an unspoken rule that the veteran players likely know, but... it's a) just not clearing lol, and b) really should not be read into in that way. In terms of elim motivation behind the kill - I can think of several reasons (wifom, fine with threadstate, etc) and don't really know how I'd read into the NK off of that. There is a very high possibility the NK was chosen to throw us off and keep our focus on that, shrugs. In my opinion, it is pure wifom to argue "well I would never make that kill for xyz reason". Unless you'd like to argue it is clearing because they strongly townread you, which no one can argue here. I play extensively offsite. This is like my vacation home from a busy city job

Stilling allows TUF to be voted out now. That's why we wanted him Stilled during the night, so that now he can get voted out.

Mhm. From a v!you pov, there are definitely wolves voting/pushing you here since you're a consensus elim (which honestly scares me a bit how suddenly consensus it became). You're probably in the best position to solve the game here and I'd like to hear your thoughts. The self awareness is self aware ing.

TUF is basically always getting bussed if elim, and elims are almost always voting there if town lol. Don't think kill was RNG - when I thought about it, that did make a lot of sense for a low info kill (given that other lower content posters were under more suspicion). Does this mean you'd assume a less experienced overall elim team? Or more specifically, who would be unlikely to make that kill?

Low info kill lol? Either wifom or we're all on the wrong track. Checked their posts and it would only really point towards STINK, who imo should be looked at today regardless. Or maybe in Terrisman / BridgeBoi / Steeldancer. There's a lot of ways one could read into the NK in terms of where the elim agenda is going (given they have multiple ways to win). I'm feeling a bit better about TwinStorm off of more recent posts during n1 ftr. Also Kas, Sart is a sitter (and if it matters, Teldris Anuar seemed to trust Sart the most). GGs Teldris, hope you enjoyed your very short amount of time in the game!

That's vaguely threatening so hopefully Stick told you I'm polarized Probably yeah, I'm a believer in twtbaw is often just wifom lol. Purposefully holding talking about my reads rn. Gl gl.

Person with lowest votes gets Stilled, I've been told. So there is a way! This post is towny I think lol. Being NK'd is the highest honour for town Since when did you have any idea of my elim range

Huh. RNG does not help you get the person you think is evil to be Stilled lol. Who do you think is evil here?

Will vote Terrisman then. Also claiming that Mark and I are Ajah buddies