Quintessential
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Okay, I'm going to propose something. We all lynch Reading. Here's why: - We can be reasonably certain that Reading is not TLR. And aside from that, in the only case where he *is* TLR (his killer was RBd), he still has two lives. So we won't kill TLR in that case anyway. If we try to lynch Reading and he survives, again, we will know an elim was RBd because you can't RB a lynch so Reading must still have had two lives. So that means Gears is elim, or that someone else RBd and isn't saying anything (at that point, RBers, you really *would* want to say something). - If Reading is village, we can be almost certain that Gears is an elim, because Reading must have survived due to an RB. - If Reading is elim, that means that Gears is village and that it was a WGG. This is the lynch that will give us the most information; no matter what, we will peg an elim.
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No, they wouldn't have risked it. If they had submitted a kill that turn, they would have cut Reading off from being able to tell us, the village, *any* of his alignment-scans (because that was the first turn he could scan). Especially if they worried Reading suspected one of them, they would have wanted to get rid of him immediately. The off-chance that he was elim-aligned wouldn't have stopped them, either, because TLR doesn't count for parity and is essentially useless to the elim team. Edit: also, they would have known that killing him would likely close PMs, which would have been a *huge* advantage to them.
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That's not my point, Ash. I'm not talking about Gears necessarily. Look, assuming that I'm correct and you find out if your action is roleblocked, here's how all the different possible scenarios for Reading's near-death could have played out: - It was a WGG. No roleblock occurred. The elims target one of their own and then benefit from the confusion and the *assumption* that Reading is TLR. - One of the elims targeted a villager and was RBd. They *know* that they were RBd. They use the confusion to plant the idea that it might have been a WGG, and to frame turtle, and they just sit back and watch. - They accidentally targeted TLR. Now here's where my point is: if they target someone who isn't another elim, and they don't receive a message that they've been RBd, and that person survives, then they know that person must be TLR. Since they *also* know that that person has already aligned, they have to assume that that person aligned village because it has been pointed out multiple times that TLR only benefits from aligning elim if the elims are clearly winning, and it was *way* too early for TLR to tell yet. So what do they do? They target another kill at Reading, to eliminate TLR (who wouldn't be useful to them but extremely useful to us) and probably close PMs. Now, notice that they *didn't* do that. That means there is no way that Reading is TLR. Unless, that is, Reading is TLR *and* the killer was RBd, which is very very very unlikely so I'm not even really counting it as a possibility. Edit: Or unless the elims are all really stupid. In which case, yay for us? But I don't think that's true. It may have taken me as a villager a long time to think of this but it would be *super* obvious to anyone who knows the alignments of everyone else
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Wait. Wait wait wait. @Matrim's Dice you said at one point that if someone's roleblocked, they'll be told that, right? Edit: If they submitted an action, that is
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Yeah, TLR doesn't count towards parity so it doesn't make much sense to call them village.
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You used an of in one and not the other. Edit: Sorry I wrote that when I was tired and not thinking straight lol.... I have no idea why they're different sizes. I would guess something to do with the highlight on a mention?
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So, what you're saying is, TLR!Reading got killed by an unknown elim and village!Gears got blocked by an unknown RBer?
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The rest of Ghander's point is valid, though. A villager could have been RBd just as easily as an elim (actually more easily by probability rules, since there are more of us). Edit: and in case my point doesn't follow easily from that, I'll spell it out I guess? Even in the situation where Gears wasn't targeted by the elim team, the elims were likely involved in spreading the message further and convincing people to vote for him (and then bandwagoning onto turtle when she became a better scapegoat).
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The actual claim that turtle made was never validated by anyone and didn't make much sense given that she actively contradicted it on the thread. I originally voted Fadran because of it, but having thought about it some more I realize that might have been rash, as she could very well have been lying to try to save herself. Also, Fadran is a new player, so I feel sort of bad lynching him. No it's a ploy to shift suspicion off of Danex. Whether it lands on you or me is irrelevant lol. Also sorry for double-posts, it won't let me put quotes in edits.
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Still is; with your vote there are only 2 on Fadran. I took mine off.
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Hmmmm yes that's true--I wouldn't say Ventyl is being at all bandwagony, given that they voted for you last round *and were the only one that did*. And it's certainly true that the PM-chain was a very effective distraction from a lot of things.
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I was under the impression that Sart just isn't on much because they're busy? Maybe I'm misremembering but I thought they said something about that. Also, Sart's claim may have been weak but it was your idea originally to start the PM-chain (even if you weren't actually the one who started it), and that lead to a whole bunch of confusion that lead to a turtle mislynch. In general, confusion is good for the elims, right? So there's still some reason to suspect you. That being said, I don't think it's enough just yet for me to vote you.
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Okay, y'know what... I still think Mist was suspicious but that's not proof, and you're a new player, so... Fadran
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Yeah, back when she said it, one or two votes still could have made the difference between her lynch and Gears', so I guess it's not *impossible* it was a gambit to survive?
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I swear, I'm telling the truth... I don't know, maybe *turtle* was lying? It's possible she didn't trust me, or like I said was just trying to save herself... but I don't know anymore. Like I said, it seemed like a really weird claim and the only reason I believe it at all now is that she wasn't an elim... As Matrim has pointed out to me a couple of times in PMs, the roles were apparently done by RNG. Me being elim twice in a row is no less likely than Gears being village for all of the previous games he's ever played (and, I think, this one too). Edit: I think it's probably more likely, actually. I'm almost tempted to do the math on that lol
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Aaaand I should believe you because...?
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I... well... fine I guess it doesn't *really* matter if everyone knows anyway. The only person (other than you) that it could have hurt is dead. Back when the whole confusion with Ghander/turtle was still going on, before Fadran cleared that up? turtle and I had a PM going, and she informed me that Fadran had told *her* to start the chain. At first I thought it might have *all* been Ghander's idea (passed through Fadran), but then once Fadran said Ghander had nothing to do with it I figured turtle was just lying to try to pocket me or save her own skin. Especially since she never said anything like that on the main thread, where someone else could contradict it. Only that *now* she's dead and apparently was an obligator, so I'm inclined to believe what she told me. Edit: this is why I was so confused about everything going on last cycle.
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I said "almost none" for a reason. Part of it is that I read Mist as elim from the start--both because they started the game off the same way Matrim (our unofficial "lead" elim in QF48) did that game. That immediately set off alarm bells for me, as did the statement Mist made that Danex quoted above. However, I dropped it once you joined and pursued other suspicions because it didn't feel right to actively attack a new player. Now, however, we're on C3 and we need some kind of answers, and you're the only person I can think of who reads as elim to me. Also, like I said, I got certain information from turtle that makes me suspect you more.
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Actually, yes. I've based almost none of my decisions on PM reasons alone this game. Generally, I decide to do something because the information I got in PMs from one person lines up with either my intuition or some kind of reasoning from actual game events. This is especially true with Gears. Look, in retrospect doesn't it feel like the turtle lynch was just too easy? If turtle had been an elim, wouldn't we have seen votes on someone else? Similarly, I think the Gears-was-roleblocked PM-chain was too easy, and too widespread. Regardless of whether the chain was created by an elim or not, wouldn't the elims have started another chain early on to counter it if Gears actually was an elim? Wouldn't Gears have *passed on* the only counter-chain that appeared? (which we *know* he didn't do because no one has said they received the message). If you can think of a scenario in which those two facts make sense with Gears being elim, please let me know so I can reevaluate my decisions so far. But I've been trying to come up with any explanation and the only one I can think of is that Gears is village, and just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, so to speak.
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I suppose that's true... I heard something from turtle in PMs before she died, something she told me about Fadran, that makes me very suspicious of him. She seemed to trust him though, which I guess could be due to the fact that he claimed to her? Anyway, she asked me not to tell anyone because she thought suspicion would fall on him, which is part of the reason I didn't want to say anything. I also have reason to believe that Gears *isn't* an elim, and that bit has to do with TLR. Yeah, I think I can say that without giving away too much...
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Use you as bait? I'm not quite sure what you mean by that
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Gears, think reasonably for a moment. If everyone posted the things they learned in PMs on the main thread, the elims would have a much easier time targeting the people who could be most effective against them. Nobody would ever roleclaim, and TLR would be forced to stay entirely silent or align with the elims. Yes, I agree that keeping all these secrets isn't ideal, but the alternative is worse. This game is all about walking the delicate balance between trust and suspicion (and also note that this is only my second game so it shouldn't surprise you if I'm not good at that balance yet).
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wouldn't village-aligned TLR *also* not vote Gears? TLR, regardless of what alignment he is, but *especially* if he's village ('cause PMs are dependent upon his survival), has the ultimate goal of staying alive as long as possible. If Gears gets lynched and flips village, the next person we're going to lynch is Reading. That just makes sense. Also Reading I sincerely hope you've *realized* that if you *are* village-aligned TLR.
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Why would knowing your role make the elims instantly want to kill you, Somebody? I don't think Danex is elim, because they're right--turtle would have pointed out in the main thread or at least in PMs if they were lying. But I can't imagine that the elims would want to kill anyone who trusted them enough to tell them what their role was (or at least not specifically *because* you told them your role). What I gleaned from my four cycles as an elim last round is that you don't want to kill someone you've pocketed unless it serves a much greater purpose, and you know you've pocketed someone if they roleclaim to you. Edit: also you're aware that saying something like that on the thread could very well convince the elims it's worth targeting you even if they *don't* know what your role is, right?
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Gah I can't believe I'm doing this, it directly contradicts what I *just* said.... I'm sorry if this seems sus, I promise there is a very very good PM reason that I can't say, but Gears Fadran
