Quintessential
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Are they though? Araris Maill Since apparently I'm an exe option now, I figure it's probably not wise to leave my vote sitting out there all by itself on Araris : P
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The Fallion Four or something like that XD Sorry? I mean, it's not like we ever rly talk in PMs... and the last time we did (in LG72) you used them to inform me that I was evil and deserved to be exed (which happened and I definitely did not deserve it) so like... sure ig? XD
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Sorta ig. idk, I feel like there's gotta be something we can get from the whole thing, given that it's been basically the topic this cycle. But... I'm just not sure what. *is already doubting everything I decided on in that analysis* er VC: Illwei (1): Burnt Maill (5): Tani, Illwei, Windrunner, Matrim, Quinn Quinn (1): Araris Ash (2): TJ, Stick Great, so the only person in that count that I'm even a little bit sus of is Maill at this point. And idek about Maill anymoreeee why is this so hard ;-; Maill Araris Hmmmm... yeah idk at this point. I'm tired (who am I kidding I've been tired all day, no wonder my analysis was awful) and probably even if I weren't I'd have no clue what to do here. Whatever, I can always change it later : P
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Allow me to rephrase (yes I realize that phrasing is confusing : P): The reason I'm voting Maill is not that I think it'll clear five people if he flips elim (or at least it isn't the primary reason)
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...did you read the whole paragraph I had about Maill? Combination of tone and the fact that Maill claimed to me, Stick, and Tani after like 1 cycle as his village trusts and then false-claimed to everyone else thereafter? Like, if he was willing to claim to us three after one cycle, then why wouldn't he be willing to claim to like... Bard for example, who he told us he relatively trusted later on? (so, PM reasons except I'm actually explaining them lol) Well, I mean, you and Illwei have the whole "mindmeld=v/v" thing going, right? Why couldn't that be a thing with us too? but yeah, now I feel like you're trying to pocket me by agreeing and if so it's definitely working
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Okay actually fair point : P (this is in response to... basically everything you said in regards to you). tbh I guess it just... it feels off, but you are by no means highest on my suspect list and also you and Maill being e/e... doesn't work so well, unless the team decided to bus him this cycle or something XD (so that's the answer to your question about why I'm not including you both in my full-team guess) Right, that's the bit where I'm assuming everything I previously concluded to be true. I did warn you I'm not voting Maill because I think his flipping elim will clear five people (or at least that's not the primary reason). : P At this point, I'm assuming that Tani is vil anyway(edit: reading Tani vil, whatever. phrasing is annoying. why do I bother.)--after I made that post, Elandera called Tani out for the Mistborn claim being elimmy, and I started writing up why I thought it was vil and then realized that Tani is... basically acting the way I did in MR46. New-player-with-important-role-gets-in-over-her-head-in-PMs-and-messes-up, kinda? It's not the exact same thing but... idk. That's my independent reason to read Tani vil. But then yes, there's also the relationship with Maill. There was not; I went back and checked. you were elim in that game XD so unless you're elim again.... *sigh* ik ik... I just didn't want to have 10 people in my list--which I'm now realizing is only 4 more people than are probably in the actual team okay nvm I'm broadening that list somewhat: Araris, Maill, Stick, Gears, Dannex, Matrim, TJ, Daisy, Burnt, Elandera, Windrunner, Devo. There, that's probably better : P My reads on Ash and Reading are dependent on Araris. That's two reads, as compared to five. Don't yell at me for reconsidering Matrim so easily. As I wrote the stuff about him I was realizing that some of it might not... actually... be accurate... idk. Anyway. Matrim wasn't exactly priority on the list of sus people anyway. (should I be worried that you agree with a good half of the things I said? xD)
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I phrase in absolutes because I've literally been C1-misexed for not doing so, and also because it's just exhausting and a waste of space to qualify every single statement I make. Also, (like I said in the original post,) if any assumptions I've made are proven wrong I will readjust every conclusion I made off of them.
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I never said there definitely was an elim, but I'm worried there might have been (though no, none of the conclusions I made were directly based off of that). also. Ah. To you and @Araris Valerian: Your main objection to my analysis at this point seems to be that I assume certain behaviors to be elim indicative, even though you've seen villagers do those things too, right? K, cool, I'd like each of you to name one thing that you've elim-read someone off of this game that you've never seen a villager do before. See my point? It's not fair of you to say that my analysis of the votes is invalid because of this--the fact is, everyone reads people off of things that could easily be done by villagers this early in the game. I find that I'm more able to come up with concrete conclusions, and avoid an insane amount of tinfoil and indecision, when I use this kind of analysis rather than just reading people's posts and saying that I think <this thing that they said or did> is village and <this thing that this other person said/did> seems sus, like most other people are doing right now. And, btw, that style of analysis has the exact same problem that you seem to be finding with mine. So I guess my question is, if you don't like what I'm doing right now, what do you suggest I do instead that would minimize those problems? I was ninja'd a couple times so I'll see what that was in a sec.
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There is a reason that I'm only leaning elim on you : P. Your late votes did need some context, and given that I'd already spent like... a good four hours on that post I didn't have the energy to go back and look for it. So thank you for providing it. The reason I'm looking at votes only, and not reasoning, is that it's pretty easy for elims to come up with a reasonable explanation for a vote most of the time, if they're putting that effort in and the safety of a teammate isn't on the line. If I'm looking at the reasoning behind every vote, and not just the patterns of votes themselves, I either end up thinking every vote with explanation is reasonable or I tinfoil myself into thinking none of them are. Neither state is particularly productive, and I have no idea how to achieve a middle ground there, so this is my attempt to try to avoid that. (obviously IRL reasons for voting a certain way are different and not AI, so yeah--less suspicion on you knowing that that was the reason for your D1 late vote). I edited this into my previous post, but since you appear not to have seen it, I'll reiterate it here: I didn't actually end up using that assumption for any of the conclusions I came to, except for my working elim team guess (which is literally only there so that I can claim to have superpowers if I happened to be right). I listed the assumption because I thought I might need it, but right now not enough people have flipped for me to be able to use it to any degree of precision anyway. Also: last game I was tied with Brighteyes, and each of us had four votes. Brighteyes lost the tie, flipping village. I was also village. Turned out, there was one elim on Brighteyes and there were two on me. When there are two large trains, any elims that vote are going to spread out between those two trains to try to distance themselves. That's why the assumption works with v/v pairs. If multiple elims are lurking, everyone's assumptions and analyses are weakened further because we can't analyze people who don't do stuff. I'm not gonna go on a contribution crusade, especially when there is as yet no evidence that the majority of the team is lurking! This is just--gah, I'm actually frustrated that you think this is a valid criticism. Especially since I composed a list of every player who didn't vote in both previous cycles, so unless you think that the team includes the five people who didn't vote in either cycle (Elandera, TUO, Burnt, STINK, and Daisy), my analysis will at least consider most of the team. K, first of all please stop trying to tell me not to be suspicious of active people. I can't help who I'm suspicious of, and I can't help that it's impossible for me to formulate reads on people who don't say anything or don't vote much, and I can't help that the people who will give us the most information upon their deaths are the ones who talk the most. Second of all, it's not that you're participating that I find suspicious, it's how. In my general (though somewhat limited) experience, villagers don't keep their poke-votes on someone else for the entire cycle, even after that train picks up, unless they were genuinely inactive (which you weren't). That was what happened with Reading. Also in my general experience, villagers will occasionally stop voting on a train they think isn't going anywhere, but when they do they move to a train that is, or don't immediately vote at all. Moving to someone with no votes on them and then staying there usually just means your vote isn't going to count for anything--which isn't something that villagers generally want, but I've definitely done that as elim and seen it done by other elims. I've definitely done the not-self-pres thing as a villager before, and in the first couple of cycles even. I know it's not necessarily rational or reasonable (most of the time; there are exceptions where it is), but at the same time if you think the other person is also village then voting on them feels kinda pointless. Also, sometimes you just figure you'll die next cycle anyway, even if you survive this cycle, because the suspicion on you will linger. (and anyway, why would doing it get village cred if villagers never do it?) Besides that, I can't see Ash/Araris being e/e and I'm pretty sure that Araris is elim at this point : P
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I had mild and very brief bouts of paranoia about both Maill and Tani--but Maill it was because I thought he was sheeping my vote on Illwei to try to pocket me (when apparently he hadn't seen that I was voting her, or at least not why, and came to the conclusion independently) and Tani has continued to do her vote-hopping thing and it looks pretty vil to me. Would note that both Tani and Maill approached me and asked to trade--or, I believe in Tani's case she just claimed lol. Then we realized we'd all claimed to each other, and Maill added us to a group PM with him and Stick, who was apparently his other strong village read? At that point, Tani claimed Mistborn and asked for advice on what to do with her steel, and I felt safe claiming in the group because I'm not a Mistborn or a Seeker or anything so I figured that at least I'd have some warning before I died if one of us was elim, in the form of Tani being killed. At that point I think I was pretty sure Tani herself was village, based on her actions in-thread and in PMs. I came into SE with the exact same kind of experience that Tani has, down to the same games, and claiming is essentially not a thing in Avalon and not really in Werewolf either, because of the way those games are set up. So the kind of experience she has wouldn't (I don't think) preclude her from claiming pretty frequently. I guess I read Tani village independently (and not just in conjunction with Matrim or Maill) because her actions so far feel exactly like my actions in MR46--I was brand new to being village, unsure what to do about claiming, and trying to figure out how to do stuff in PMs without everything exploding in my face. I ended up claiming to most or all of the people I talked to, going back and forth between them saying to each that I was paranoid of the others, and eventually ended up claiming to the thread (albeit with a less important role) once I realized I'd screwed up. That methodology has yet to be wrong for any game that I've played, and until I see a time when it is I'm gonna keep using it. Every time I've been elim, my team and I haven't been able to just sit back and let the village kill each other because they inevitably turn against one of us eventually, either for what we say or the fact that we don't say anything. We almost had an entirely village train on Dannex in QF50 but then it began to slip and one of us had to vote on it to keep the village from shifting to Lotus, who was elim with us. From personal experience as both villager and elim I feel comfortable using this assumption most of the time, except if A. the exe target is elim or B. all of the possible trains had less than 4 people on them. (Edit: Probably worth mentioning that part of the reason I trust that assumption is that it was what allowed me to guess the full elim team in the MR. I don't expect to be 100% right with it all the time, especially with so many unconfirmed people as of now, but I feel comfortable relying on it somewhat. Also, I put those sets in but I actually never ended up using them for that last bit, where I talked about who I believed to be village and who I thought was elim. The only time I used them was just to verify that my working guess for the elim team fit with the assumptions I'd made earlier : P) Since we haven't exed any elims yet, we don't know whether any elims have been in danger yet once we have a confirmed elim I fully intend to go back through and look for those, but not before then. You're wording that wrong : P My analysis didn't lead me to retract from Stick, it lead me to vote on Maill. If I could vote on both of them and you all at once I would, but I can't so I have to choose one. Of the three of you, Maill currently seems the most likely to actually be exed, will give the most information, and of everyone I'm suspicious of, you and him are tied for most suspicious. Therefore, right now the logical choice is to vote Maill. Oh! Wait sorry no she didn't; I thought you were talking about the metal she rolled today for some reason. But yes, she told at least me what she rolled on D1 (it was Pewter--I doubt she'll mind my saying that. Of course, there's nothing whatsoever to prove that but I'm inclined to believe it for the moment. Unless she told you something else, I guess).
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Here's the stuff I was gonna post. It saved in my editor, and I ended up adding onto it and... yeah. Purple denotes anyone who is confirmed village (in my eyes, so yes, I'm marked as purple here when I appear). C1 votes (you don't need to read this): C2 votes (you don't need to read this): C3 votes (thus far): Relationships: Notable VCs: Conclusions (this section assumes that the assumptions I've made are correct. If any of them are proven wrong later on I'll adjust my conclusions accordingly): Maill/Illwei not e/e Maill/Tani not e/e Maill/Biplet not e/e Maill/Fifth not e/e Maill/TUO not e/e Matrim/Tani not e/e Biplet/Illwei not e/e Araris/Ash not e/e One (and only one) of [Maill, Illwei, Biplet] is elim. At least one of [Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Ash] is elim. At least one of [Gears, Stick, Ash, Devotary, TJ] is elim. At least one of [Araris, Stick] is elim. At least one of [Araris, Illwei, Devotary, TJ] is elim. At least one (probably more) of [Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Fifth, Tani, Stick] is elim. Araris is elim (started the vote on Reading, voted on Ash but then started the vote on Pyro as soon as the Ash train lost steam). Ash is village (I don't think Ash is elim with Araris, and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance; instead he voted on TUO, whom he suspected). Reading is village (Araris started the train on him) Matrim is elim (this is a bit more tentative, but... well, look. Matrim has voted exactly one person this entire game, and expressed strong suspicion of exactly one person this entire game, and that person flipped village. And then Mat didn't really... stop and reconsider, exactly? Like, if you're a villager and you're tunneling hard enough on someone that they're the only person you ever have a vote on for the first two cycles, then you're gonna need to do some pretty serious rethinking once they flip village, right? And I don't recall really seeing that from Mat. Last Night the only two suspicions he mentioned were on Tani and Maill.) Tani is village (again, tentatively, because it's partially dependent on Mat. But also... just, new-player vibes? idk, I get that some people think she's sus for the whole claiming thing, but can you really see elim!her doing that without asking her team first? And can you really see her team saying that's a good idea? Since it wasn't even her idea to Coinshot Illwei in the first place, and the rest of us approved XP, if one of us had outed her to the thread she would have had that as a response. It just seems like genuine newness to think that you have to claim over a single badly-targeted vig kill.) Maill is elim. I'm incredibly unsure about this one, but I tried to write out reasons why I think he's village and then realized I had none except that Matrim is voting him. And honestly, I might even have kept him down as village anyway were it not for one really... kind of strange exchange I had with him last Night? I mentioned that I was looking at final VCs and that from them I'd concluded that Stick was sus because she was sheeping the final trains. This is not, in fact, what was happening (if you look at the progression of votes) but I didn't realize that at the time because I'd only just started my analysis, and when I mentioned it to Maill he kind of... seized on it? Like, sort of overeagerly, if that makes sense. Told me like three times in the same 4-sentence-ish PM message that it was interesting or useful or something like that : P the tone felt super off to me, and that combined with his general... openness to me, Tani, and Stick, which seems to me now to have been kind of arbitrary since he claimed to us D1 or beginning of D2 and since then he hasn't real-claimed to anyone else (that I know of), whereas he's told us about a few other people he fake-claimed to. So... hmmm this is making me less sure about my elim-read on Matrim. Then again, he was the most recent person to vote for Maill so that could very well be distancing. This means--and I'm fairly certain about all five of these if Maill is elim, particularly the first three--that Illwei, Tani, Biplet, Fifth, and TUO are village. So that leaves me with Gears, Dannex, Elandera, TJ, Devo, Burnt, STINK, Stick, and Daisy as the pool from which to draw the remaining three elims. Or 4 elims, if I think Matrim is village (Tani would be village if either Maill or Matrim is elim, so nobody else's alignment thus far is dependent on Matrim's alone.) Of these, I know nothing about Daisy, and honestly I doubt we're going to find anything out about her any time soon, either. She might be a good Coinshot target, just so we don't have to waste a cycle's vote figuring out whether the person who's never said anything is elim. I haven't the faintest idea about STINK theoretically, but also he's actually had some decent, if short and unelaborated, points... so leaning away from him as elim. Dannex hasn't really said much since D1, when he voted me... notably seems to be keeping a low profile, which is somewhat unusual for him but also he could be busy. So, leaning elim but he's not at the top of my list-of-people-to-exe. Windrunner... I'm gonna just mark them village tbh. Idk if this is really the best idea and by going for precision I'm definitely sacrificing some amount of accuracy, but they haven't... voted elimmy, and haven't been acted much different than normal (which is to say, they haven't been acting much at all) so I'll just go with it here. TJ just posted and made an incredibly valid point about Gears--that he's basically been stating the obvious all game--so I might lean towards Gears being elim. Unfortunately, I'm also currently leaning elim on TJ for being the last vote on a long train in both cycles... but he was elim in the QF so I can definitely understand v!him here not being able to keep up very well. I'm leaning away from Devo being elim because she's doing what is apparently normal for her (voting last-minute). Of course, she did that in LG73 (when she was elim) as well. So I guess it's literally NAI for her but I have to narrow this down somehow. Burnt and Elandera I have legitimately no idea. Stick I should have an idea but I don't, so I'll go with elim because they've voted every cycle and I've talked to them a lot and I still have legitimately no idea, which seems wrong to me. So. People I think are most likely to be elims: Araris, Matrim, Maill, Stick, TJ, Gears, Dannex, and possibly one of the near-inactives/nulls (Daisy, Burnt, Elandera) People I think are less likely to be elims: Everyone else. If I had to guess an elim team of 6 right now, I'd say Araris/Maill/Stick/Gears/Dannex/Daisy, but obviously that's mostly just randomly picked from my list so I don't expect it to be right. @TJ Shade I believe that answers your question? Also, go read my explanation of why Ash's vote on TUO is villagery more than elimmy (under Notable VCs, C2) Oh! And before I forget: Stick Maill Apart from my suspicion on Maill for the reasons listed above, I kind of need to know his alignment before I can pursue a lot of the rest of this analysis with any degree of certainty. I would also be perfectly fine voting Matrim or Araris this turn though, since my reads on them have nothing to do with Maill. Edit: @_Stick_ yes Tani revealed in the group what she rolled. Not to each of us separately. (it's not steel, don't worry : P)
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Yes, that's right
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...no it wasn't. I knew Illwei had taken what I'd said as a joke because of the way she unexpectedly was like "wait you were serious?" and since I hadn't said anything else about it, I knew someone else must have told her. In seriousness. I knew it wasn't me, so I figured it must be one of you or someone one of you told. that's what I was asking about. (and yeah I conveniently left out that I'd technically said it before but... yeah whatever idk. I suspect I may just end up staying away from PMs in the future tbh because whenever I'm in them I end up doing things that I later look back on and think "what was I even thinking" and I've no idea why.)
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Illwei and I joke about stuff like this pretty... frequently. I don't think (?) she believed it until Tani told her. Since she was more or less like "wait you're actually going to kill me???" when she found out. So... yes but no? idk.
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Er... that may have been me. See, Illwei had been joking in our PM that I was elim, and so she asked me who I was gonna kill that night, and I was like "You, obviously " and then we were talking about it and I was like, "but I don't actually have the ability to kill you, so I've asked a friend to Coinshot you for me I hope that's alright with you?" Because of course I'm a sadist or something jeez I feel awful for saying that stuff now : P
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Cool ok so there goes my motivation to actually do any analysis... both because most of what I was going to say has more or less been said already, and because what little I might have to say that's new is taking/would take way too long to compose, and because it'll probably just get drowned in this whole discussion anyway. So why bother. My group-PM-mates are currently attempting to downplay the thing with Striker. Which is like... I'm not gonna do that. Cuz exeing him was my idea, at the end of the day, and Maill is right that he was on Striker already but the other three of us weren't, and for all that I could point out that it wasn't just us that voted him and that given the individual choice between Pyro and Striker, I'd have voted Striker, that's missing the point. We, as a group that (at the time) relatively trusted each other and mostly worked together, decided to orchestrate the exe of someone that, in all honesty, we suspected was probably village, but none of us wanted to go through and do the analysis to figure his alignment out one way or the other so we decided to just kill him. And that definitely wasn't fair to Striker, and I am really really sorry that I suggested it. At the time, it didn't feel like we were doing anything wrong but in retrospect it definitely was, and now I'm kicking myself for not figuring that out in the moment because I was definitely one of the people opposed to the power trust-circle thing in the AG. Having a small group of powerful roles decide everyone's fate isn't really the point of mafia, in my opinion. So yeah. I'm sorry. For whatever that's worth. I'm gonna go make myself some coffee now : P
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I'm currently working on a large analysis post in the same vein as Maill's. I may end up coming to the same conclusions, but if so they were reached independently and mostly before I even read his (I just have to finish up the last... section and a half or so of my post, which I won't have time to do until tomorrow). Bard voted Books at the end of the cycle, btw. I had the same mistake in my VC though for some reason, and only caught it because I'm looking at vote progression in the post I'm working on : P *cough* I think. You may. Be forgetting something. Maill. You can't rightly read mine, Tani's, and honestly even Stick's placement on the Striker train, any more than I can find it interesting that you were on it from the start and never moved. Because. Y'know. Our group PM agreed to exe Striker. That's why I had a vote on Striker towards the end. Same with Tani and Stick. And yes, I expressed suspicion of Stick in our PM because of the placement of her vote. Having looked at the vote progression some more, I'm still suspicious of her, but that particular thing is basically NAI because we all agreed on it. It was a joint move, as much your idea as ours. Again, sorry I can't post my full analysis tonight but my family and I are watching a movie so I don't have the time : P. First thing tomorrow, I promise!
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I have every vote and retraction recorded from each cycle (which I'll be posting with my analysis later once I have the time to sit down and write it). Basically I'll do what Matrim just did but... more
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*rubs eyes* okay great so I have to clarify more. According to Tani, if the Night's rollover hadn't been extended then Maill would be dead. And I meant that Tani had told you about the plan to kill you, not the XP thing. Me and Maill came up with it in our own PM and then Maill proposed it to the group. That's why Tani thought it was his idea. It was in fact my idea to Coinshot you but I believe Maill was the one who floated you and Striker as potential targets? I don't recall exactly. Don't have time to explain why rn (hw) but Stick. I noticed something interesting about their votes while I was reading through my notes last night. Illwei's not in the group. It's me, Maill, Tani, and Stick.
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The original plan wasn't even to kill XP, actually. It was me, Tani, and two others who'd all claimed to each other in a group PM, and Tani asked us for advice on who to kill. Originally we said Illwei, but then Tani and I started to get kinda worried that one of the others (the one who'd started the group) was elim and playing us. I was more thinking of it in terms of "let's do something about them if Illwei flips vil" but ig Tani took it a different direction. She switched the kill to the person she suspected and told Illwei about it. And then in the mess afterwards Tani decided not to kill either of them and to hit XP instead because she didn't really have any other suspicions. I think she didn't trust Illwei as a good kill because it was a suggestion that was entirely external (from me and the other conspirator) and hadn't come from Tani at all? idk
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Actually, I'd say that's precisely the reason Bard might have been a Seeker target. Our newer generation is pretty fond of easily claiming, so Seekers wouldn't be necessary to learn their roles. I happen to know who shot XP--they are in fact a Mistborn, but for the moment I trust them... enough. Ninaj'd by Tani--can confirm, she is the Mistborn
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...because we have no idea what they'll do? They can hit a Seeker without meaning to hit a Seeker, and the same goes for Coinshots.
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Mine was: That reminds me of a song. But. I couldn't use it once I had to drop the RP 'cause I couldn't think of a way to work it into my posts XD I had no idea Random was elim lol I genuinely thought that the third elim was TUO and that we were going to survive another cycle... (I will be pointing to this game the next time a bunch of people read me elim from C1 for sounding different Just saying.)
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Fine. Reading
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Why? If Reading doesn't hit an elim you always have the chance to exe him next cycle.
