Flyingbooks

When your mental answer to the joke "what's black and white and red all over" is "Singers, obviously."

100% kill Vyre (storm Moash), kiss Venli, marry Timbre Rua, Wyndle, and Chiri-chiri.

The video describes me really well (I'm biologically female, but identify as gender-neutral, which I guess just further reinforces it). I think I was diagnosed with being on the autism spectrum because I saw that on a medical/official-seeming paper in my house a few years ago, but I need to find the piece of paper to make sure that I remember correctly.

As I said last cycle, the Shaman shouldn't pass all of the Honorblades which they retrieve to one specific person, especially if that person is publically known, since the elims could simply kill them to get an easy motherlode of Honorblades. This post slightly increases my suspicions of you because it seems very elim-y overall, since you ask for the Shaman to claim to you and give you blades now that you're trusted, which would both be very helpful to the elims.

How can a single thread title sum up my personality so accurately? It's hard for me to reach out individually to people who I don't know since I have no idea what their interests are and I overthink what might happen if I talk to them, but I'm bad at understanding people even though I really, really want to. I guess that's one of the reasons why I like books. They let me understand people''s minds without even having to *gasp* talk to them. When I do get up the courage to try to reach out to people, I typically send out a message on the Skype group for one of my classes or a club that I'm part of about a book that I like in the hopes that somebody else also likes it and will talk to me about it. I'm typically very shy in conversations, but I get so excited about some things that my excitement overcomes my nervousness and words just come flooding out. In general, initiating any semi-social thing makes me go into overthinking panic-mode where I'm paralyzed by not knowing how people will react to what I say. Even as I write this post, it's been affecting me, since I've had this open for a while now without making any changes and I'm nervous to hit the "submit reply" button. I logically know that it'll be perfectly fine to post this, since other people here have many of the same problems with social interaction as I do, but there's a part of me that just won't stop panicking about social interactions.

How? By dividing him by zero? That would be quite inappropriate. (MMmmmMMMmm)

I agree that Kelsier is likely a Dawnshard, but I don't think that Preservation was the Dawnshard before him, just because I don't feel like Shards would also be able to be Dawnshards at the same time. However, there must be a reason why Preservation was able to give a Command like a Dawnshard would have. I think that, to be able to do this, Preservation might have been "holding on" to the Dawnshard, similarly to the mural under Akinah.

I know I'm not in this game so I technically shouldn't post here, but my math brain is just hurting so much at this. If there are 3 reckoners, then the first vote will have a 1/5 (3/15) chance, the second will have a 3/14 chance, and the third will have a 3/13 chance if no Reckoners are caught.

Congratulations to Danex, for being the most effective Truthless possible and winning on the first day. Now I understand why he didn't cast a self-preservation vote. Also, the Shaman should be even more careful with their role now that they're vulnerable to elim kills. Edit: @Ookla Fell From The Sky, you have the honorblade surges list in the player list section.

There's a tie for second most votes.

@Ookla Fell From The Sky Can I have a vote count?

Sorry for not including you. I don't really have any concrete reads on you and I don't want to reread the entire thread, so the only very-active people who I wrote about are the ones who I have a clear image of. I guess I'll go off of Lotus and onto Danex for the reasons which I said in my previous post and because I want my vote to actually matter (Danex is a lynch which I think has a higher chance of succeeding than Lotus)

I don't feel like Gears or Connie is an elim. Of the two, Connie feels a little bit more suspicious, but not by much. I'm going to read through people's posts and comple my overall thoughts about each person who's posted a few times but not too many since I'm too lazy & have too little time to reread all of the posts of the super-active people. Gears: There's very little in their posts compared to how much people have been discussing them. A role analysis post at the beginning is apparently normal for them and after that their only post after that was pretty much just noting that their role analysis was inaccurate. The inaccurate roles analysis actually made me less suspicious of them because basic role analysis is something that an elim could easily do to get village cred without giving too much to the village, but anything that's suggested that's bad for the village would probably be noticed pretty easily and found suspicious & heavily discussed (as happened here). An elim would be more invested in not wanting so much negative attention and would probably pay more attention and any bad advice would probably be more subtle than a misreading of the rules. Overall null, leaning village. Danex: Hypothesized about the secret roles, voted Connie because she's less defensive than usual, unvoted her because she explained that she's calmer because she doesn't have a special role. None of those seem alignment-indicative to me, so I'm reading them as null. (Update: after reading the most recent post (as of the writing of this update) by Matrim, Danex's retraction may have also been a backpedal to make hiim look like less of a bandwagoner. This makes me read him as on the elim-y side of null, so while he is not my top elim guess, I'd be willing to join a vote on him because I'm more suspicious of him than of Connie, Illwei, or Gears) Somebody: Claimed elim, suggested giving all of the Honorblades to one person, would prefer an Illwei lynch to a Connie lynch. Claiming elim is NAI, though some people thought that it seemed village-y for some reason, which I don't really understand. If they had suggested the Honorblade dump as something that should be done, I would be very suspicious of them, but they suggested it as a thought and asked for criticism, which makes me less suspicious that they're an elim trying to get the Honorblades more easily. Overall null, if I had to choose which way they lean I'd say elim. Araris: Says that the Truthless shouldn't claim Stone Shaman. (pretty much NAI, but leans a teeny bit village) Votes Experience because they said something that feels villager-y without actually saying anything. (feels slightly village to me, but not very) Says that it's very bad to lynch the Truthless. (NAI) Says that the elims have won a lot because there have been many low-activity, low-analysis players who are reluctant to vote. (NAI) Says that using role speculation as the reason for voting is a bad idea & that the D1 lynch only needs to threaten peole, not actually kill anybody. (Feels NAI to me) Says that the best part about being an elim is killing people. (NAI) Overall null, but if I had to choose which way they lean I'd say a village. However, somebody more experienced would probably be able to get more out of their posts, since I'm not very good at noticing subtle indications yet. TJ: Votes Gears because they suggested that the Shaman reveal themselves, which would let the elims kill them immediately after the Truthless dies (pretty much NAI, but leans a teeny bit village). Wonders why Matrim read Somebody as village after they claimed elim. (pretty much NAI, but leans a teeny bit village) Reads STINK as village because they acted the same in a past village game. Reads Devotary, Illwei, Araris, myself, and Quinn as village-leaning, leans not-village on Alvron, Connie, Gears, and Danex. Overall, his posts aren't very alignment-indicative to me, but I'm gut-reading him as village. Experience: Says that gears claims elim every game, and later that Gears claimed elim this game, then that they had misread Gears' post. They haven't really said anything that would be alignment-indicative, though Araris did think that they were suspicious because they posted without really adding anything, but I don't think there's enough information yet to judge. Overall, null. Devotary: Says that there's no need to give the elims advice for how to use Gravitation, that Chanaranach and Vedel might not both be villagers, and that Nightblood could kill the Shaman even before the Truthless dies. Doubts that the elims started with Chanaranach's blade and says that Kaladin shouldn't falseclaim Ishar's Blade because the Shaman could tell. Gives an example possibility for a special role's win-con. Overall, I'm gut-reading them as mild village. Lotus: Said that they don't have many thoughts, Doesn't want Illwei voted out but is a bit suspicious due to lots of posting. Other people have already said that posting just to say they don't have many thoughts is a bit strange and suspicious, and I agree. Listing their suspicions of Illwei as being because of lots of posting is very strange and feels like an excuse. Overall, reads as slight elim. Alvron: Says that claiming Shaman is not a good idea since the elims want the shaman to be dead. Says that they like the big Gears role analysis posts, that Devotary turns out evil when they are read as village D1, that they often "give off neutral vibes," that we should always discuss D1 lynches, that players should give their estimated role distributions, and that they rarely read the rules before the game. Says that both having too few people vote and having everybody, no matter what, vote can both be helpful to the elims. The people who posted a lot who I have fairly solid reads on but don't want to reread all of the posts of: Connie: It feels like people are tunneling too much on her. This all started with a "be more careful" which got blown out of proportion. She's explained why she's more calm than usual, why she started the D1 lynch discussion, etc. to a degree when but many people are still on her. Illwei: She feels sort of suspicious to me, but other more experienced people have said that she usually plays like this, so I guess I'll trust them. I'm still a tiny bit suspicious, though. Quinn: I'm not going to through all of her posts, but overall, she's giving me village vibes. This is my first big analysis post concluded. These take such a long time. I might have missed a few people & a few posts since I'm doing this in the middle of other stuff and this was started a while ago. I probably won't be able to be here much until after turnover because I still have tons of physics homework which I should definitely stop procrastinating on. My biggest elim read is Lotus, but I'd be willing to switch to Danex if others do because I'd rather Danex get lynched than Connie. You really think I did well in my first Elim game? Thanks! @Ookla the Grammatical Sorry that I said that I'd be able to RP but never actually did. I underestimated the amount of homework that I had.

This observation actually made me less suspicious of Connie because I tended to look for contradictions & suspicious details more when I was a villager compared to when I was an elim, since villagers need to generate suspicions using all of the evidence there is, not just find evidence that makes somebody of their choice seem suspicious. Now that you've summarized the reasons not to vote for Illwei, I can see the point, though I still don't read Connie as elim. Illwei, I guess, though I'll probably vote for one or the other before the cycle ends depending on any new evidence. I probably shouldn't be spending so much time on this game since I have tons upon tons of physics homework due tomorrow.

I think that it's unlikely that both Connie and Illwei are elims, since their interactions don't feel like they were planned on the elim doc to me and Fura said that there's a reasonable chance that it's not a v/v lynch, so lynching either Connie or Illwei would probably provide us with some pretty good information no matter what. I'm currently reading Illwei as slightly more suspicious, so I'll vote for Illwei.

The Shaman gets a list of the Honorblade bearers at the end of each day, so they're guaranteed to get an Honorblade if they reclaim. Also, since the player who they would give it to would definitely read as very village if they don't want to run the risk of giving the elims a win and the elims would probably target players that read as very village anyways, this would probably let the elims get Honorblades easily. Tension can only be used to give Stormlight to someone else, so the bearer of Ishar's blade would need to know who the mega-bearer is, which would increase the risk because they might be an elim.

I will take my vote off of Connie, since the main reasons why I were suspicious of her were starting up the D1 lynch discussion after the most recent game had it and later the acting and calmness issues, but the explanations of those behaviors seem to make sense. I'm not going to vote on somebody else yet because there's nobody who I'm suspicious enough of to vote for at the moment, but I probably will put my vote on somebody new by the end of the cycle. But it would take many rounds for the Shaman to reclaim them all, and in the meantime the trusted person could be killed.

As I said before, a good way to stop the elims from controlling the lynch too much, either by leading bandwagons or being the only ones to vote, would be to have everybody explain their reasoning for why they voted for someone or didn't vote. Edit: sort of ninja'd

I'd like to RP later today, when I have more time.

I think that anybody who doesn't vote should at least give an explanation of why they aren't voting in order to give us more information to work with and force less active people to participate & analyze more. Even though voting is very important for the village so that the elims don't take control of the lynch, eople might have good reasons for not voting on a particular round, but I've noticed that people who don't vote rarely explain why they do so. My very tentative reads (not including people who haven't posted and null reads): Mild village: Matrim, Quinn Very mild village: Illwei, stink Very mild elim: Connie Since she's my only read on the elim side of the spectrum so far, I will put my vote on Condensation. Tsezn walked out of the council meeting room onto the strange, squishy "soil" with its grass that didn't seem to care whether it was stepped on or not. The attacks had put a big dent in their research - it was hard to investigate how the Honorblades worked when they were spread amongs several unknown people and never summoned. As Tsezn walked over a hill, they came upon a Fused floating above the ground. A Fused? Here? This is bad news. At least they're one of the Heavenly Ones, so I probably don't need to worry about them attacking civilians as much as I would have if they were a different brand of Fused. Even so, it shows just how far Odium's forces have spread. I need to try to end this state of emergency as soon as possible and get back to figuring out how the Honorblades work.

I'll sign up as a pinch-hitter.

Since the Stone Shaman gets a list of who has an Honorblade at the end of each day, if an Honorblade bearer is killed by an elim and the elim chooses to take the Honorblade, then they will definitely be one of the new Honorblade bearers at the end of the next day. Even though multiple Honorblade swaps might happen each turn, this'll still help the Stone Shaman create a list of suspects. The elims could, of course, choose not to take the Honorblade from their victim, but one of their win conditions is having all of the Honorblades, so I find it unlikely that they'd pass up the chance. The Stone Shaman should create a list of the changes in Honorblade ownership each night that an Honorblade bearer is killed and share it if they are discovered by a lynch. The Truthless is important because the Stone Shaman can't be lynched or night killed unless the Truthless dies.

By the way, my RP character will be Tsezn, a Thaylen merchant who is trying to infiltrate the Shin high counsel in order to study the Honorblades and figure out how to make new ones.

"Can I come with you too?"

"Maybe that has something to do with why we all came here. I suggest we ask everyone about their abilities and where they came from, then investigate this world to try to find out if there's somthing special about this place that brought us here."