Ashbringer
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Perhaps this is a mistake. But it is one I feel I must make. The Spiked hide among us. Infuse our plans. Perhaps to beat them requires a certain... Spontenaity.
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Blast it. Derrick is out of time. Looking back, Derrick can't find much for the original reasons around Marll's suspicion as it seemed mostly a joint gut. As opposed to an unjointed gut. Or an ungutted joint. And Daux nearly killed Mailliw, if not for Philico and by extension extensions. Derrick is out of time. Derrick is out of time. Derrick may not wake up in time. Derrick cannot trust. Derrick must trust. Derrick cannot trust Roko. Can Derrick trust Marll at his eye's word? The second line, the arranged three? There are only two... and... trust... Trust no one... Derrick does not trust Iste Confessor. Derrick does not trust Sunny. Derrick does trust Fleur. Derrick does trust Illwei. Derrick can trust no one! Derrick. Derrick trusts Marll... but can Derrick afford to trust Marll... Derrick does not need much, but the price is high... Blast it. Derrick wants to wash his hands. Can Derrick afford? Can Derrick afford to not take a side. Can Derrick afford to pay the price. Can Derrick pay Aralis. No, Derrick doesn't pay Aralis. Derrick was evicted three years ago. Derrick sleeps in ash and dust and blood. And tears. Derrick doesn't need much. Can Derrick afford to wash his hands of this? Derrick is afraid. No. Derrick will be resolute. Derrick will be. U. N. I. T. E. D. Mailliw Gears Derrick is nervous. Derrick must trust Marll. He is one of a kind. One of two kinds. Marll should say as much, Derrick thinks. Derrick doesn't know. But Derrick must believe. And Derrick believes in Marll. Derrick would rather unbelieve in Iste Confessor than Roko. But Derrick... Derrick must believe. Must unbelieve in Roko. And if Derrick is wrong... Then. I am... sorry. And Derrick will be. Quite. Sorry. Derrick hopes he can wake up. Derrick would assume he won't. Commence the gambit. How long does he have? How long does he have? How long does he have? How long does he have? How long does he have? Not long enough...
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I don't know how to iso people... I'm gonna try on Gears.
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Another question: What happens if a Coinshot redirects a Seeker or Tineye? Are they given results about "Your Target" (and thus aren't necessarily aware that they were redirected and assume the results are true about their original target), or are they given results about "Player Name" (and thus know they were redirected)? ... I'm not sure what the traditional pattern is, even with directed redirects.
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My Definitely Accurate Vote Count: Mailliw (5): Matrim, Illwei, TJ, Gears, Ash Devotary (1): Mailliw Gears (2): Araris, Stick So. We've got a lot of people here not voting, which makes me nervous. Gears has claimed the Soother on Mailliw (I think... Stick turned a softclaim into a hardclaim?) which also makes me nervous. Now the exe is between Mailliw and Gears, who are tied together significantly because of that Soothing and that, surprise, makes me nervous. In short, Ash is nervous. And nervous Ash does nervous things. @Gears, are you a Soother? If so, what did you do D1/D2? And why did you remove a vote from Mailliw instead of voting for Quinn (or doing both)? @Fifth Scholar, how's the analysis going? @Devotary of Spontaneity, what's your opinion on Mailliw vs Gears vs someone else? @_Stick_, you've got Mailliw's claimed role. Anything we should know? @ SEEKER, I hope you're working behind the scenes, but if you've scanned Maill as Village (with a role, as Maill seems to have one) or Elim, we probably need to know. Particularly if you've got a Lurcher friend somehow.
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It's one of the roles. Edit: Why was that in a spoiler box...
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I think Zane always has Pewter.
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Faleast is signing up! Not entirely sure what he’s going to pull off but this will be fun.
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I have a sinking feeling about the contest in that there won't be a winner. There might not even be much of a contest. The rules are, as I remember, that two willing champions (Dalinar and Odium's Champion) meet at the top of Urithiru, and whoever is left alive wins. There's also a large set of theories of T-Odium choosing a champion Dalinar can't or won't kill, such as Gavilar or Gavinor. (I do wonder what would happen if it was someone like Nale or Ishar who could probably just flat out kill Dalinar if he can't get his Bondsmith Connection abilities working, but I don't think that's the angle that T would go for.) Plus, we know there's a timeskip between the Front Half and the Back Half, bordering on fifteen to twenty years. So my theory? Dalinar will climb to the top of Urithiru, and come face to face with someone he can't bring himself to kill. Gavinor being most likely, perhaps influenced into agreeing to the contest not knowing its meaning or gravity. The Contest begins... but it doesn't end. Neither will kill the other, so there is no winner. Both sides may try and make a fragile peace, but with no Oaths and no outcome from the contest, things will be tenuous. Peace but no resolution. Not for fifteen to twenty years, when Dalinar's old body will finally give out, and the battle for Roshar can truly begin.
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Illwei, why are you badgering new players with 73 page PMs...
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Yup. And we're fairly certain there's an Elim Seeker, because the Elims have hit one vanilla, one Lurcher, and one Coinshot. ... man, Biplet loved to kill Smokers for some reason
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Not you, specifically. Illwei and Burnt are the most likely ones I think would extract a claim from people. But I'm assuming there's a 50/50 chance that the hypothetical Elim-Claim-Extractor will actually claim, so if they claimed to anyone else their relative playstyle would probably fit the bill... I don't think that makes any sense. I think an Elim!Seeker is much more likely anyway. But now that you mention it, the main PMs that were sent early were Mailliw, Illwei, and STINK (and Quinn, but... sigh). And not Burnt. But I didn't really get an info-push feel from any of those... but that's not surprising for various reasons. I've gone down the Illwei spiral before... maybe. I still need to learn when Illwei's joking, 'joking', "joking", "'joking"', ""joking"", or serious. Then again perhaps I'm not one to talk
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I love not remembering to follow the thread. It’s fun. Here’s the problem. If Mailliw and me(Ash) are both Village, we’ve essentially spent four turns barking up the wrong tree. We don’t know for certain, but if all these trains have been on Villagers then the Elims have just been doing what they want, and I have a sinking feeling that the Village Seeker hasn’t been making that much progress. If they even exist. Bartholemew may have been our only one... Hmm. Fifth’s around, although I’ll be watching for that analysis. What Mailliw will flip... I have no clue. But at this point I think we need to know, so Mailliw. I’ll look for other targets, but that may be combing the threads for hours. If anyone here had a role claim from Biplet or Young Bard, please say so. Either we have a Spiked Seeker or we have an info leak. And while I have some ideas as to who may have gotten a claim out of those two... having a profile would be a large help. Elims don’t kill new players N3 without reason.
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Now, that had nearly been a disaster. Derrick continued his wandering around the village. The orb was some technological marvel, but nothing he'd be able to decipher on his own. Perhaps if he had access to... no. He didn't. He had a few ideas... but it was hard to tell which of those ideas were... later. Derrick would do it later. What else was there to do? He wasn't going to get strung up today, which meant he still had a few hours that he could guarantee his life. Considering the circumstances, that was a fairly good deal. Roko was as inscrutable as ever, but learning pieces of his motives... that was worthwhile to some degree. Philico was a potential point of discussion for Objective Three, but it was worth a wait to avoid interrupting his storytelling. Tesse Mourn... no. She died. Or was in prison. He should have paid more attention to that. Alas. Who else... one of the veterans in town? He knew them fairly well, but being insane had some deprecating effects on memory. Obliteration, the vessel... not now. Not while Derrick was like this. So... this. Who else... oh. Derrick started walking over. The individual he'd spotted was a bit of a newcomer, and an oddity. But he was well trusted, or trusted enough that Derrick wasn't sure if it was more likely that he would get stabbed or he would. It was confusing that way. He was also a Mistborn. Allegedly. "Hello, Daux," Derrick said. He wasn't entirely sure what the Mistborn was doing now, but last he'd seen he was bawling at the death of... who had died? So many, ducks and 'humans' alike. Derrick wasn't really that much able to care, but that wasn't the best opener. "I take it you've not quite succumbed to the dark? You should really try it out some time. It's... well, you can kill people, so perhaps not the best idea. Not that I can't kill people but... you're you know." He sat crosslegged on the ground. "Madness... it's something different for everyone, isn't it. You do you, me do me, da ba daa, da ba dee... but hey, you'll live. Maybe I won't, but you'll live for another day. So maybe you'll need this." Derrick tugged around in his cloak and pulled out a small metal orb. Not Roko's; one that he'd found Derrick somehow had a small stash of. A small, shiny bead. Atium. "It's not like I can use it, now, can I?" Derrick said, gently tossing the bead next to Daux. "And besides... if we got a Mistborn to protect this town, by the Sliver we're gonna use one." @Tani (If ye want )
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F-Nicrosil is a bit like F-Copper, for what we know, in that you don't really get the ability to store over time. I think it's still a bit of a debate whether a Coinshot/Soulbearer Twinborn would store their ability to burn steel until they tap it again, which is mostly useless without some way of unkeying/unsealing the metalmind, or whether they would store the actual burning of steel which could let them tap to do... something. More powerful Steelpushes, or the ability to tap Nicrosil to perform a Steelpush without burning Steel. Poking around on the Mistborn section of the Shard might yield more clues as to what a Soulbearer can do without access to other Investiture, but I think an only Nicrosil Ferring can't do anything kind of like a Duralumin Gnat.
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I mean if an Elim Tineye just makes up a Seeker that's been telling them things. I don't know how you'd initially tell that from a real Seeker telling a Village Tineye to tell the thread things. And it's hard to scan a Tineye for making a suspicious looking anonymous post when it's... anonymous If Village!Seeker does find a Village!Tineye, it's better than repeatedly exposing the confirmed villagers to Elim attacks, but it also loses most of the accountability that an outed "confirmed" has.
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@TJ Shade Er... because the main point was "Ash didn't need to self-pres because his Elim teammates can save him"? There's only five (now four) people that would be. (And two of them voted me D3... what that means I really don't know.) Isn't 'generally inactive' the exact reason you voted for TUO? That vote on TUO....still seems odd. I'll actually look at the post since I was clocked out for a bit for D2/N2 cause of the QF :P. (I don't know what I did with the formatting) I mean, at that point I didn't want to get involved as much because I wasn't at risk either way. (That and it was like, midnight. Pyro had 2/3-ish votes to Striker's 8.) But I think Pyro was a different... sort of inactive than TUO? Pyro was obviously paying attention to what was going on and commenting on it. TUO doesn't seem as genuinely active... at all. Or talking a little while saying nothing, while I felt Pyro was saying something. Plus the last game Pyro played he had gotten voted out on D2 by like... thirteen people, while being Village he does have a point about how he tends to get read "wrong". So I could have voted Pyro, but I didn't. Mainly because at the time I saw it as an opportunity, I decided how bad it would make me feel outweighed the possibility of saving a stronger read. I'm not all blood and logic after all. (Side note: that's to some degree why I didn't vote for Maill / Quinn. I didn't like the tie Burnt made, but breaking it either way would have made me feel bad. Plus when I did decide I should vote, I went back and forth until I reversed and decided 7:00-AM-Ash shouldn't be making life and death decisions ). All I'm doing this game is saying how much of a Village read I had on all the dead confirmed Villagers... maybe not Quinn, as much. At least I'm consistent Vote for Quinn was somewhat a joke, somewhat trying to get a clarification on her moving from "yeah I agree it's hard to keep up" to "Ash why you so quiet". And... Uh... They did. Well, a Villager Four did, but may as well say so. Quinn PM'd me at some point (after she'd taken her vote off of me) saying she had "information that you're not in real danger of being executed" (fake quotation marks, not exact quote don't kill me Kas) in the middle of a mostly non-game-related discussion. I didn't really know what to make of it - at that point I think I was one vote behind of Striker, so I thought she just had contact with a Rioter/Soother that for some reason trusted me (which she did, didn't she...). I expressed that I didn't really want Striker dead either, but I couldn't do much about votes on him and I then forgot about it. Then the votes fell off me and for some reason I figured that was that... and the rest is relative history. I did later get confirmation from Quinn and Mailliw separately that the joint maneuver against Striker wasn't ever (explicitly) about saving me. What it was, I don't know, but I need to stop talking about myself and the dead. That may be all Derrick's interested in, but I should probably be more mindful of the living. I'll see what I can do. Oh, and one thing: While that would be nice... problem is that lets an Elim!Tineye can cause a loooot of chaos. Claim a Seeker confirmed them, claim [Eliminator] is Village, claim [Villager] is Elim, claim [Village Misting Claim] scanned Vanillager, claim the Seeker lied to them when they get called out, all from the safety of anonymous writeup posts that are all essentially impossible to track down.
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Quinn warned me that the Fallion Four “may” have had some access to vote manip, although I honestly expected it to be Mailliw and not Quinn herself... but I’m assuming Maill knew Quinn would Soothe in self pres. What that means I’m not really sure. Tani’s a decent Seeker scan. Maill or Stick would be too. And if I can shout out a personal suspicion, Fifth one of our inactives would be good Coinshot targets as well. Maill maybe - I’d argue he’s valuable enough if mostly confirmed that he should be Seeked over Shot, but that’s just me. On the other hand... there’s not really a way for a Seeker to confirm things to the thread just yet. With Bard down they probably shouldn’t claim to thread unless they get proof of another (Village) Lurcher.
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There it is Edit: My clock says 7:01 so that’s probably it for the turn.
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Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh It’s 6:55 in the morning, I logic-ed two-three votes off of myself and now I’m nervous... I am not surprise exeing Dannex again and both he and TWS tell us almost nothing as far as I can tell. Possible Coinshot targets for later. This is... not where I want to tie it. Much vote manip inbound. But I don’t know which one I trust more... Ahhhhhhhhhhhh
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TJ... I don’t know. My initial “Derrick doesn’t like this guy” was a joke solely because of the kandra reference. To go a bit meta, I pegged him as Elim fairly quickly in the QF, which if he’s Village here would have been his first time being Elim in... the 9ish months he’s been playing . Here he seems much more himself. But the QF was a whole lot of aggro needed and it could be a cross-game long con, which is another meta topic I’d like to bring up sometime. So for now I read him Village, but more for meta than for content. Depends what he says about what I said I guess. Okay I need sleep now
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Well, now I’m both conflicted on whether or not to self-pres and the fact my two main suspicions are voting on me Here’s my stance on self-preservation. The main goal of the Villager (or Elim) is to have fun. I, like most people, have the most fun in the game when I’m alive. But, not always. (For more details, see my memoir, The AG Shardicide: or, “Kasimir, I Already Wrote My Death RP And By The Gods Beyond I’m Going To Use It”). But that’s not the main point, because while I would love to see a game where everyone dropped their wincon to live in peace and harmony... that would be incredibly boring The other main goal of the Villager (or Elim) is to win. Generally, winning is also greatly aided by being alive. But, not always. My first game I lost while alive because I never met my wincon. And you can still win while dead, which I do... actually not that frequently but that’s besides the point. As a Villager, your goal is to execute Eliminators, but it’s also not quite that simple. Your goal as a Villager is to increase the chance of finding and killing all the Eliminators. And as of D2, I had done essentially nothing in that hunt. For good reason - holes drilled in my jaw and all - but still, I was not a very helpful Villager. Striker, on the other hand, was present and active and hunting for suspicions. And I read him as village, and said as much in my summary-post. He seemed genuine even in his mistakes. And so on. Even if Now, let’s assume that Village!Ash was 100% confident that Striker was Village and was, in this non-knowledgeable example, I was correct. Striker was Village, I was Village, and it was him or me. Who is better for the Village to lose? The player who, whether purposefully or not, has accomplished nothing in five days? Or the player actively pushing discussion, searching for answers and roles, and being more overall out there? I would say I should be the one to die in this scenario. My loss, while a loss, is less than what we would have lost from an active-er player. But what if I was wrong, and Striker was a dastardly Eliminator? Well, here Village!Ash had so profoundly pocketed himself that I would say my loss wouldn’t have damaged the Village that much either (I’m not one to self vote, because we don’t live in a vacuum and I can hope to build a new vote train on someone I suspect.) Now if I was an Eliminator, I would know what my teammates were doing. I hope I’ve sufficiently countered that or revealed who they may be (evidently not enough for two of those prospective teammates not to “bus” me ), but anyway: would I self-pres there? I’ve done it both ways. LG7...1, the space one, my teammates and I just kind of decided to let me die/bus me even with only a few suspicions, because it gave strong village reads to two of my teammates (and let me RP blowing a hole in the ship). We went on to win with me as the only dead Eliminator. Other times I insist that I am Village and will self-pres at all costs. There are certain times when Elim!me will decide to do that or not, but for the sake of my playstyle I’ll keep them to myself So to end it off, Village!Ash will vote in self-preservation if I think my survival is worth more for my wincon than the survival of the other exe target, in that moment. Elim!Ash will do the same, with the caveat that Elim!Ash is both Elim and a strange individual. I have a lot of fun with death RP’s. Bananas. On to Part 2: ... I hope by now you’re asleep, but hopefully you’ll have time in the morning to respond to this For one thing, I think I addressed the main points on self-pres... at length. Whether you agree or not is one thing, but if you’re basing your reasoning on @TJ Shade and @_Stick_ being trustworthy and having good reasons, is it too much to ask to wait and see how they respond to what I’ve said? (Also, please respond you two... I would appreciate.) And I don’t think there’s any other points of suspicion besides my TUO vote and “Ash isn’t Mailliw/Quinn”... and there’s a lot of people here who aren’t Mailliw/Quinn. So while it may be a reason, it’s really just... one reason. Number two, this is the second (or third) time you’ve joined a vote train, in addition to Bip’s point that your main reason is “these people have good reasons” (or perhaps “what everyone else said”? ), but you’ve reasoned mainly out of dislike for the other trains and their reasons. (Last time the train you didn’t like mine, but, whatever.). So my charge, if I die here or no, is this: post your reads list tomorrow. So far you’ve mainly just been jumping on other people’s trains for other people’s reasoning, or stating agreement / disagreement of other people’s reasoning. I want to see what you can come up with on your own. As of now this exe is much closer than the last two, and even with (or especially with) a Village Rioter down this is much more vulnerable to being decided with vote manipulation. I don’t trust Maill or Quinn nearly as much as I trusted Striker, but to be honest I don’t really suspect either of them and me flipping would do the village some good. So... no vote right now. I suppose I could vote TUO again... maybe later. Petulence is an art form. Also, the main reason I semi-suspected Stick is this: they called out my TUO vote today after TJ voted on me for it, but seemingly didn’t care about it on D2. She even had a vote count with my vote the same post she moved off of me and onto Striker, which changed the results of the exe about as much as my TUO vote did. So why call it out now? Main suspects are TUO, Fifth, Stick. Trust... not really anyone. Tani and Illwei, to some degree, and Mailliw and Quinn in the “genuine” catagory.
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Also... this is a dumb question, but why is the Mistborn always considered the super role? I would think a Coinshot or Seeker is more important, because they can be a whole lot more consistent. Edit: Er, no offense to present Mistborns please don't kill me
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Essentially what Devo said here, any vote on Pyro wouldn't really have done anything to make me not die. It just exists as another place for people to go if they didn't want to execute Striker. That may include Elims, but that's a different reason than the point I was trying to prove. ... that being said, your (Stick's) vote switch didn't make much of a difference as to whether I would die either. That would make Fifth or Quinn my likely teammates, imo. Then again, I'm not an Elim and I found that switch odd for other reasons.
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... huh? The three main vote trains D2 were Me, Striker, and Pyro. I was quite adamant that I didn't want to vote Striker, because I read him Village (both from his reactions in thread D1/D2 and a PM he sent asking me if I was [ROLE] because (assumedly as a Vanillage) he wasn't suspicious enough of me to vote me out if I was [ROLE]). I didn't want to vote Pyro because I had a nearly entirely null read on them, and never really got why people were voting for them besides being generally inactive. And in hindsight, the reasons were 1) gut from D1 (Araris), 2) None Given (Illwei), 3) alternate Self-Pres (Striker), 4) ACTUAL listed reasons (Devotary), and 5) "felt weird he shaded Elandera right after her first OOC post about not OOC posting, and shading me" (that would be you, TJ). I really didn't want to vote out me, for some reason. So, I voted for someone I found suspicious even if they weren't one of the main trains. Because that's what I do. That's what... a lot of people do. So how is that supposed to be suspicious? ... you know you can get Village credit as a Villager, right? I had done essentially nothing for the first few cycles, because I flat out didn't have time, and honestly I really wanted to write as Derrick instead of try to analyze 25 different people, a third of which I've played with once or never before. Striker was being active, forcing discussion, and his mistakes didn't make sense from an Elim perspective. In other words, being a whole lot more helpful than little old me. Also, yeah, I wanted to hear more from TUO. Because they had been doing a lot of small, under-the-radar posts. That seems to be their MO, maybe, but they did it as an Elim in LG73 and it worked well until they kept 'forgetting' to do the action they promised. So I wanted to hear more from them, and voted them as an alternate train to Striker because I didn't have time to figure out where all the one-votes came from. (Pyro train didn't exist at this point.) So yeah, a bit of a poke vote, to see if my vague impression changed based on what they said. Problem is, TUO didn't post at all for the rest of the turn. So... yeah, not exactly the best way to get a poke vote off of yourself. Also, if my "Elim teammates" saved me, I think it would be fairly obvious who it would be. Here's a bit of the vote counts Quinn collected (thank you) from D2 (because we obviously haven't seen enough of those today ). Purple is Confirmed Village from death, Bold means they voted on me. I won't Blue myself because that's mostly irrelevant to my point (for now)... well, actually it's kind of the opposite of my point Before my main Defense Post: After my TUO Vote: End of Day: TL:DR, there were at most 5 votes on me: Bard, Stick, Quinn, Striker, and Araris. Of these, Bard and Striker are both dead and Village. Araris moved over to Pyro; Quinn and Stick moved over to Striker. Meanwhile, Fifth Scholar and Tani moved to Striker never being on me. I'm discounting Mat, Windrunner, and Mailliw because they were on Striker since the beginning. So, lets assume TJ's right, and I avoided self-presing because I knew my Elim friends would save me. Well, here are my Elim friends. Araris, Quinn, Stick, Fifth, and Tani. But you may say, Ash! Wait a moment! These people can't all be Eliminators, it wouldn't make any sense! So let's narrow it down. Quinn, Stick, and Tani (together with Mailliw) form the Fallion Four. They do things. Mainly their thing was deciding to kill Striker. Mailliw claims it didn't have anything to do with me, specifically, but that's a grain of salt and a half... but I can't believe they're actually the Elim team as that would likely fall apart. So, I'll go with only one of these was an Elim, maybe two. I don't think Tani is, as claiming Mistborn D3 is bold... and I'd be very jealous of a new player getting Elim!Mistborn not that I'm one to talk. Plus, just gut. Maill's getting voted out as of now... I gut read (past tense) him bad but I'd have to check why, and he did have a fair point in that most of us don't really know how to gut read players we've never seen before. So if I had to guess, Quinn or Stick, leaning Stick for reasons I'll get to later. (This is why the whole Faillion Four thing makes me nervous; not only does it feel shady, it also looks like what Elims do, which makes it hard to figure out where the Elims are... or in other words it makes it real easy for an Elim to pocket en masse ) Araris explicitly stated their vote on me was based on a good read of Striker and not a bad read of me. They then moved to Pyro once they got a better read on me. I don't know if it's Elim, but there's much simpler ways to save me than creating a whole new train. Plus I read them village. Fifth sticks out, somewhat. Partially because Striker got a VC wrong and stuck his vote on me when it was on him. Fifth thought the train onto me was weird and voted Striker for that; a reason, if a vague one. So, if anyone moved to save me, it was Araris, Quinn, Stick, Fifth, and/or Tani, with me personally thinking the group is Stick and/or Fifth and/or maybe-Quinn. Possible Elim teammates, possible Elims without me being Elim. So... if you think the swing off of me is weird, why not start there? (Plus... you know, I'm village. I know that. Take it with a grain of salt, but it makes sense. But a weird swing off of me is not necessarily dependent on my alignment. If I'm village and telling the truth, then all the major D2 trains were on villagers which means the Elims do what they want.) Got to go on a walk, will be back.
