Ashbringer
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Everything posted by Ashbringer
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That's what I've been telling everybody! Now what to do about Illwei...
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TJ, you said this was an end to the madness!
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Also, you're told if you're redirected, Matrim. ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯ ... that looks very grammatically wrong but I think it's accurate
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Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
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Tineyes can only see one target at a time, so seeing an Illwei target means Striker either targeted Illwei with Copper or his atium-metal. Which depending if he used his Duralumin up or not could mean there's another missing Striker action out there. I don't think Terris visit, they just learn things. But I highly doubt Mat's both Vin and a Terris
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... yes. That's what a 1 for 1 is. Mat says that they're Vin and saw Illwei trying to kill them. Thus, if Matrim is Vin (is Village), than Illwei must be an Elim. Illwei says that they're Village and that Mat is lying. Thus if Illwei is Village, than Matrim must be an Elim. From Mat and Illwei's perspective (and the rest of Mat's team if he is Gneorndin), they know whether they're lying or not. The rest of us... not so much. I'm more of the mind that you're both Elim, just on different teams. But there's not really anything that can disprove Matrim's scans, which is either highly unfortunate or highly designed. Unless any Seeker who scanned Striker or Illwei last turn wants to out themselves, but that's probably not the best idea.
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... I know you can't really answer this if it's true, but why on earth would Striker, knowing he's going to die (from you or from someone else, as he was attacked)... use Copper? At least Steel gives him a chance of surviving the kill. Unless he rolled Copper as the initial metal and then used something else with atium. Mat and Illwei is a 1 for 1, in any case. Illwei, you wouldn't happen to be Vin, would you? Edit: Am I the only one who bothered to learn the name Gneorndin....
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Atium shows one person voting to kill the Mistborn, even if the kill eventually targets another player.
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... this actually relates to the point I was looking to make. The two Elim teams - Straff and Cett - need to fully eliminate the other, in addition to the village, in order to win. The Village needs to fully eliminate both Elim teams. There's no parity this game. The question is, do we want to press the advantage we have against Straff, or try and balance the two teams by killing off a Cett? If we manage to kill off an entire team (Straff), then that's one less kill to worry about, but in the meantime Cett will definitely start going for strongly-read Villagers, and it really doesn't matter who Straff goes for because they'll see Cetts and Ventures the same way, which makes them probably more likely to hit Villagers. If we try to balance the two teams, they're more liable to actually go after each other, or at least we force Cett to go after Staff. Straff!Illwei and Cett!Matrim makes the most sense. Matrim being Gneorndin also makes sense... Aaaaaaand Mat claimed Vin and this is all going out the window. Mat, you scanned Striker twice. What did he do?
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Hey everyone! Remember that time in the last MR when my eye went all red and I had to drop out? Yeah. The other eye wanted a turn. I'm planning on staying in the game for now, but there's a high likelihood I'll won't be posting nearly as frequently... however frequently that was. It wasn't very. I'll let you know if that changes for the better/worse.
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Gears is here, so Archer it is. Uh... yeah, that one. More specifically you pushing the probability idea, which both Archer and Striker seemed to agree on, which is another reason I think both of them being Elimistborn is actually fairly likely. You because, for better or worse, you didn't vote them last cycle. Not a strong tie, but something I'm keeping in mind. Plus your reaction to me asking felt... not bad, but not good? You didn't take the easy ways out of "I didn't see in time" or "I didn't want to change the exe so late", but it didn't feel much better. TUO for mainly the opposite reason, they voted Archer for a very small reason that I'm still quite confused about. Could be signaling. And... it kind of was a countertrain? People still seem conflicted (Illwei) that we're exeing a probable kill target, and Gears isn't usually this quiet. But I think exeing Archer's the right call here. Insurance against Lurchers or mercurial Eliminators. *Wonders if everyone "forgetting" the main mechanic of the game is Elims lying about themselves or just an SE-wide amnesia* I also avoid using a notes system, which gives me more time to RP/post with a slight side effect of being completely wrong GM PM can be fun though. And works as notes, if you can be consice. uh, this is blatantly claiming Elim??? I think he means "their team" as the Village team. But I also... nope, not saying that. I've nearly been ninja'd a full page writing this it's the Discord Gold Rush all over again
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Someone mentioned that Archer's vote on Striker could be seen as a godfather-esque directive for Team!Archer to attack Striker... it could have gone the other way where Team!Striker decided to defend Striker by attacking the one person who suspected them. Not exactly subtle, but it would explain it better than a random attack... it could also imply Elim!Mistborn!Archer <===> Elim!Mistborn!Striker. Gears doesn't really link to anyone. That's the thing I want to see if I can change - at least get some reads if not direct votes or pseudo communications. Archer links to a lot of people, so his alignment is more valuable to learn, but if Gears is actively attempting not to interact with anyone than that's a good reason for (at least initial) suspicion. (Or, what Quinn said )
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I have a little time, but still have an assignment left before I'm free for the weekend. Essentially there's two places we can look. One is if Archer and/or Striker flip over as Elim!Mistborn (or even just Elims, although that muddies things a little). Elim!Mistborn!Archer links to Liranil, Illwei, TUO, maybe Tani? Probably not Quinn. Would explain hit on Striker, although exactly what that means for Striker I'm not sure. Elim!Mistborn!Striker links to less... Illwei for the early poke, but I doubt it. I'd have to look at more communications. I trust Quinn and Mat, but not... together. Illwei not so much thanks to her pseudo-defense of Archer. Gears has been NAI, I think... Elim predictions is always something that he's done but in this game it is a bit more problematic. Tani feels good, and Liranil at least feels genuine. Her not voting for Archer isn't quite incriminating enough (I don't exactly have the best track record on that... sorry Gears... and Quinn...). I'll vote Gears for a reads list or other thoughts. If he comes to post, I'll probably move to Archer. There's enough people linked to him that I'd rather be sure about getting his alignment.
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... oh dear that's a lot. On the whole Archer/Striker thing... for one thing, I've never taken a stats class in my life, so the most I know is Punnet Squares two coin flips makes a 25% chance of two heads, 25% chance of two tails, and 50% chance one of each. I've heard of the Monty Hall thing before, but 1) entirely do not understand why it works and 2) don't really know how it applies besides the fact we've got multiple variables... We know they're not Elims together, but both could be on separate Elim teams, and depending on surrounding behavior very much could be. So I don't think probability's the best place to look for alignment here. Either the Elims hit two players with extra lives at random - which isn't too outlandish considering probably a quarter of us have them and the Elims are shooting in the dark with their votekill - OR something made the Elims believe that Archer/Striker were Mistborn or other valuable kill targets. I'm much more inclined to believe the latter, particularly with Archer's interactions, but I'm not discounting the former. Another worry is if the Village is insistent that the Elims will likely take them both out this turn, then the Elims will then avoid hitting them. They might be missing out on killing a Mistborn, but it also will cause a discussion black hole that have plagued the last several games (Dannex in QF50, Striker in LG73, sort-of-Maill in LG74, etc). Plus... you know I won't say that So if we need the alignment of one of them (probably Archer here, as they've interacted with more players), we should probably vote for them. Vin can likely save herself with double zinc / double brass, Elims not so much. But we should also look at other options than those two... and in the meantime, just... don't Lurch either of them? Sorry if that bounced around a lot, I sort of wrote those three things separately. Also I need to go study for / take a test, so see you in like 5 hours. Also, since it could be relevant: @Liranil, any reason you didn't move from STINK to Archer at the end of last cycle?
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Uh... Guys... Archer was the GM of the QF... ... oh. Wait, do you mean the Reckoners one? Well, I didn't play that one... but from what I see of Archer they do the big posts fairly frequently. ... wait, you didn't play that one either. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
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... what are your opinions? I don’t think you got back to me on that.
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Actually the last two (edit: out of three) times
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Well... this is interesting. Archer being Lurched is possible but based on how close they were to getting exed (before I tried to vote them 2 minutes before rollover...) that would be strange. Potentially an Elim!Lurcher (or even Elim!Mistborn protecting them believing them to be a teammate). Would like to hear if Archer claims an Extra Life or not before I decide much more.
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Liranil gives a lot less info... I'm a little off-put by their initial "I'm here" post but they did say they would be busy and then... were busy. Hmm. The problem is, all I know is that people had bad gut reads on Archer and I have no idea what they actually were and I only got ~3 sentences of clarification. That and my opinions are very shaky... life and death in D1 is complicated. But yeah, that's me a lot of the time. ... bah. Archer, for curiosity. Edit: TJ if this happens I am very sorry
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I find it incredibly interesting that people were suspicious of Archer for one thing, then decided that Archer (and Quinn) could be Elim Teammates to E-Mistborn-STINK, and then proceeded to vote for STINK instead of Archer... But yeah, for all I can see people are voting for STINK because of Quinn's/Archer's/Illwei's(?) actions... and even if that did make STINK suspicious we should go for people based on their own actions and not others. This probably isn't STINK's fault. ... if we're going to info-kill, Archer is the way to go, not STINK. Although I still don't understand the initial suspicion... it seemed to come from a lot of different little places. Grrr.
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Turns out I actually don't have my 9:30-11:00 class today... time to start looking.
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... oh. Vote manip is different this game. Okay... Mistborn dura-zinc is still potent but not as powerful as it could be. Apparently it's been a while since I've had a normal D1 without having some kind of exam crunch or medical thing, but I have classes until 11 so I'm probably not voting. Don't really have any leads except lingering confusion on where the Archer train came from. If I have time / "have time" I'll look at / for the reasoning on Stink, because I haven't seen that much either...
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And Araris mentioning PM Safety, "sus", 4+ votes in the last 5 minutes before rollover, being vanilla, breaking the record for the longest PM/game, etc... xD
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Maybe not the Free Space - I do need to think of a few other things first - but that will indeed be making an appearance
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Next game I'm making a bingo card.
